1、The Inconsistent Coal-Free Pledge of Koreas National Pension ServiceAn analysis on the air pollution and health damagecaused by the NPS coal investmentThe Inconsistent Coal-Free Pledge of Koreas National Pension Service-An analysis on the air pollution and health damage caused by the NPS coal invest

2、mentPublication DateJune 2023AuthorsLauri Myllyvirta,CREA Erika Uusivuori,CREA Jamie Kelly,CREA Sooyoun Han,SFOC Eleonora Fasan,SFOCContributors Vera Tattari,CREACounsultantJoon Hui Jung,Professor of Accounting at Daegu UniversityTranslatorSang Ho YooDesigners Yejin Choi,SFOC Contact Sooyoun Han,SFO

3、C(sooyoun.hanforourclimate.org)Lauri Myllyvirta,CREA(laurienergyandcleanair.org)About CREAThe Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air is an independent research organisation focused on revealing the trends,causes,and health impacts,as well as the solutions to air pollution.CREA uses scientific d

4、ata,research and evidence to support the efforts of governments,companies and campaigning organizations worldwide in their efforts to move towards clean energy and clean air.We believe that effective research and communication are the key to successful policies,investment decisions and advocacy effo

5、rts.CREA was founded in December 2019 in Helsinki,Finland and has staff in several Asian and European countries.About SFOC Solutions for Our Climate(SFOC)is a nonprofit organization established in 2016 for more effective climate action and energy transition based in Seoul,South Korea.SFOC is led by

6、legal,economic,financial and environmental experts with experience in energy and climate policy and works closely with domestic and international players.CREA is politically independent.The designations employed and the presentation of the material on maps contained in this report do not imply the e

7、xpression of any opinion whatsoever concerning the legal status of any country,territory,city or area or of its authorities,or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.The Inconsistent Coal-Free Pledge ofKoreas National Pension ServiceAn analysis on the air pollution and health dam

8、age caused by the NPS coal investment1Key findings The National Pension Service(NPS)has yet to establish a specific policy to limit its coal investments,more than two years after coal divestment declaration in May 2021.Meanwhile,the NPS continues to invest large amounts of capital directly and indir

9、ectly in South Korean coal-fired power plants(CFPPs).This study analyzes the air pollution and health impacts caused by the NPS investment in domestic CFPPs based on the CALPUFF modeling system,an industry-standard emission diffusion model.It also estimated the resulting economic losses.Between 2021

10、 and 2022,exposure to air pollution from CFPPs in South Korea is estimated to have caused approximately 1,970 deaths1.Approximately 11.2%,2202,can be linked to the NPS through its investment in domestic coal power plants.Health and economic impacts as a result of air pollution from coal in the count

11、ry also include approximately 580 new cases of asthma in children,280 preterm births,over 800,000 days of work absence(sick leave days),and 560 asthma-related emergency room visits in South Korea for 2021 and 2022 combined.Of these,the NPS-linked number of cases is 67 new cases of asthma in children

12、,32 preterm births,90,690 days of work absence,and approximately 63 asthma emergency room visits.The total costs of exposure to air pollution from CFPPs in South Korea between 2021 and 2022 amounted to approximately USD 10 billion3(KRW 12.9 trillion4)in healthcare and welfare expenditures.Of these,a

13、round USD 1.1 billion5(KRW 1.4 trillion6)can be attributed to the NPS investment in domestic coal.195%CI:1,340 to 2,860295%CI:150321395%CI:USD 6.6 13.8 billion495%CI:KRW 8.5 17.9 trillion;Currency conversions are done using 2022 average exchange rate of 1 USD=1292 KRW.595%CI:USD 0.7 1.5 billion695%C

14、I:KRW 0.9 2.0 trillion2The Inconsistent Coal-Free Pledge of Koreas National Pension Service-An analysis on the air pollution and health damage caused by the NPS coal investment In terms of regions,the largest health and economic impacts were found to be in Chungcheongnam-do,where the Taean and Dangj

15、in coal power plants are located,and Incheon Metropolitan City,where the Yeongheung power plant operates.The annual deaths linked to the NPS for these plants were estimated at 26,23 and 18 annual deaths in 2022.Furthermore,the total NPS-linked costs caused by these plants are USD 120 million7(KRW 15

16、5 billion8),USD 110 million (KRW 142 billion10),and USD 87 million11(KRW 113 billion12),respectively.795%CI:USD 81 177 million8 95%CI:KRW 105 228 billion9 95%CI:USD 75 160 million10 95%CI:KRW 97 206 billion11 95%CI:USD 59 127 million12 95%CI:KRW 76 164 billion3Table of ContentsKey findings I.Introdu

17、ctionII.NPSs investment attribution to the impact of domestic coal power plants Table 1.The final attribution factor for stocks and bonds combined is as follows.III.Emissions load and air quality impact analysisFigure 1.Maximum 1-hour and 24-hour concentrations of SO2,NO2 and PM2.5 from all coal pow

18、er in 2022 compared to NPS-attributed investments in coal in 2022Figure 2.Annual Mean Concentrations from the modeled power plantsIV.Health impacts and economic costsTable 2.South Korea total and NPS attributed deaths from coal power air pollution between 2021 and 2022,by cause(95%confidence interva

19、l in parentheses)Table 3.Total health impacts in South Korea and NPS attributed health impacts between 2021 and 2022 from coal power air pollutionTable 4.Annual NPS attributed health impacts and total costs in 2022,per power plant56789121414151514The Inconsistent Coal-Free Pledge of Koreas National

20、Pension Service-An analysis on the air pollution and health damage caused by the NPS coal investmentRecommendationsAppendix A:Calculation methodology for NPS financed emissions from domestic coal power plantsA.Shareholding Attribution FactorB.Bondholding Attribution FactorC.NPS related financial dat

21、a sourcesTable A-C-1.NPS bond investment dataTable A-C-2.Power plant and power generator consolidated financial dataAppendix B:Air pollution and health impact analysis methodology and dataA.EmissionsB.Atmospheric modelingC.Health impact assessment&economic valuationMajor air pollutantsTable B-C-1.In

22、put parameters and data used to estimate economic impactsTable B-C-2.Input parameters and data used to estimate economic costs of health impacts converted to South Korean Won(KRW)Appendix C:Stack properties and emissions dataTable C-1.Coordinates,stack properties and air pollutant emissions(2021 and

23、 2022)of Korean coal-fired power plantsReferences18181920202021232425212223232528175I.Introduction In the age of the Climate Crisis,the movement of capital towards the sustainability of the worlds environment and human society has become an irrefutable paradigm.Financial markets are indeed striving

24、to pave the path for restoring sustainability,and the first step towards this sustainable path is“coal-free”finance.Among fossil fuels,coal is one of the main culprits of the climate crisis due to its high concentrations of greenhouse gasses(GHG).Moreover,coal-fired generation is one of the main cau

25、ses of air pollution that consequently has adverse effects on health,such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases.In South Korea,the National Pension Service(NPS)recognizes the issues related to coal power generation and the necessity of reducing carbon emissions.Indeed,in May 2021,the NPS made i

26、ts“coal-free declaration”(Ministry of Health and Welfare,2021).As a“big player in the capital markets in the domestic and global arenas,this declaration is more than just some ESG policy from one institution.In fact,the NPS holds shares in more than a thousand companies in South Korea and is a unive

27、rsal owner with its share of market capitalization of more than 6%.It also accounts for around 10%of the bond market.Furthermore,at the end of February 2023 the Korean pension funds reserves totaled approximately USD 726 billion,thus ensuring its place among the top three public pension funds.Conseq

28、uently,the ESG policies of the NPS have significant influence in the financial markets and on ESG investment and governance policies of companies.As of today,the NPS continues to invest in coal power generation without developing concrete exclusion policies despite being two years since the funds co

29、al-free declaration.Hence,the declaration is a mere statement lacking practical planning and implementation.First of its kind,this study analyzes the air pollution and health impacts of the Korean National Pension Services national coal investment,and the consequent economic losses over these past t

30、wo years(from 2021 to 2022).6The Inconsistent Coal-Free Pledge of Koreas National Pension Service-An analysis on the air pollution and health damage caused by the NPS coal investmentII.NPSs investment attribution to the impact of domestic coal power plantsThere are a total of 15 domestic coal-fired

31、power plants in South Korea,including those under construction.Of these,except for four power plants with private operators,11 power plants are operated by five power generating companies totally owned(100%shareholding)by Korea Electric Power Corporation(KEPCO).This study calculated the degree of re

32、sponsibility,the attribution factor,of the NPSs investment in coal in the air pollution and health damage impacts generated by domestic coal-fired power plants.The calculation methodology was developed based on the carbon accounting reporting standards for the financial industry proposed by the Part

33、nership Carbon Accounting Financials(PCAF)in consultation with Jun-hee Jung,a professor of accounting at Daegu University,and the amount of coal investment was based on data submitted by the National Pension Service from the office of Choi Young-hee,a member of the National Assemblys Health and Welf

34、are Committee.PCAF is a global coalition led by financial institutions that aims to drive capital into low-carbon economic activities through standardized carbon accounting.PCAFs carbon accounting reporting standard is widely used as a method for calculating GHG emissions(financial emissions)from fi

35、nancial institutions investment activities,and the basic unit of calculation is the investee company.However,since this study analyzed air pollution and health damage impacts at the level of coal power plants,it was inappropriate to apply the PCAF methodology directly.Therefore,the PCAF methodology

36、was used as the basic framework,but the annual air pollution emissions of each power plant unit were multiplied by an attribution factor attributable to the investment activities of the National Pension Service to calculate the final contribution.The attribution factors were calculated and summed fo

37、r stocks and corporate bonds for which specific investments can be identified among the seven asset classes presented in the PCAF Carbon Accounting Reporting Standard:listed stocks and corporate bonds,corporate loans and unlisted stocks,project finance,commercial real estate,mortgages,auto loans,and

38、 government bonds(PCAF,2022).The detailed calculation methodology can be found in Appendix 1.7Table 1.The final attribution factor for stocks and bonds combined is as follows.Power companyPower plantNPS final attribution factor(%)KOENYeongheung Power Plant11.673Yeosu Power Plant11.485Samcheonpo Powe

39、r Plant11.576Gangneung Eco PowerGangneung Anin Coal Power Plant0.194Goseong Green PowerGoseong Hai Power Plant3.349KOSPOHadong Coal Power Plant11.595Samcheok Green Power Plant11.679KOMIPOBoryeong Power Plant11.607Shin Boryeong Power Plant11.557Shin Seocheon Power Plant11.531EWPDangjin Coal Power Pla

40、nt11.774Donghae Power Plant11.470GS Donghae PowerBukpyeong Power Plant4.100KOWEPOTaean Power Plant11.865Samcheok Blue PowerSamcheok Power Plant3.0368The Inconsistent Coal-Free Pledge of Koreas National Pension Service-An analysis on the air pollution and health damage caused by the NPS coal investme

41、ntIII.Emissions load and air quality impact analysisCoal-fired power plants emit pollutants such as sulfur dioxide(SO2),nitrogen oxide(NOx),and fine particulate matter(PM2.5).Sulfur dioxide is a major air pollutant that at high concentrations is highly absorbed through the respiratory system,where i

42、t reacts with mucous membrane fluids and causes inflammation.Prolonged exposure to sulfur dioxide can lead to diseases such as pneumonia and asthma(Seoul Metropolitan Government,n.d).Similarly,long-term exposure to nitrogen oxide13,however low the concentrations,can lead to chronic poisoning,emphyse

43、ma,and other health problems(Seoul Metropolitan Government,n.d).Ultrafine particulate matter is dust with a diameter of 2.5 micrometers(m)or less,which cannot be filtered from the airways during the inhalation process and penetrate even the alveoli.Ultrafine particulates can cause heart and respirat

44、ory diseases increasing premature mortality(Seoul Metropolitan Government,n.d).Based on data on air pollutants and emission facilities of domestic coal-fired power plants submitted by the Ministry of Environment to the office of Representative Jin Sung-joon of the National Assembly(Environment and L

45、abour Committee),the operating coal-based power plants listed are estimated to have emitted 21.5 kilotons(kt)of SO2,19.2 kt of NOx,and 1.6 kt of particulate matter(PM)pollution in 2022.The amount of pollution that can be attributed to NPSs share of coal investments is 2.5 kt of SO2,2.2 kt of NOx,and

46、 0.2 kt of PM.Figure 1 visualizes the impacts of maximum hourly(1-hr and 24-hr)concentrations of SO2,NO2 and PM2.5 from the modeled power plant units in 2022 compared with the concentrations of the pollutant emissions linked to NPS investments.Figure 2 presents the annual mean concentrations of the

47、same pollutants.As can be seen from the figures,the emissions that can be linked to NPS are noticeable,therefore its impact on air quality,the environment and human health are also observable.13 However,NOx gets quickly converted to NO2 which is the pollutant associated with health impacts.9Figure 1

48、.Maximum 1-hour and 24-hour concentrations of SO2,NO2 and PM2.5 from all coal power in 2022 compared to NPS-attributed investments in coal in 202210The Inconsistent Coal-Free Pledge of Koreas National Pension Service-An analysis on the air pollution and health damage caused by the NPS coal investmen

49、t1112The Inconsistent Coal-Free Pledge of Koreas National Pension Service-An analysis on the air pollution and health damage caused by the NPS coal investmentFigure 2.Annual Mean Concentrations from the modeled power plants1314The Inconsistent Coal-Free Pledge of Koreas National Pension Service-An a

50、nalysis on the air pollution and health damage caused by the NPS coal investmentIV.Health impacts and economic costsThe operational coal fleet in South Korea caused an estimated 1,968 deaths in the country between 2021 and 2022.Of this,approximately 220 deaths could be attributed to NPS share of the

51、 power plants,that being 11.2%of all deaths across the country for two years.The total cost of all health impacts on the economy for the two years is estimated at USD 9.6 billion(KRW 12,400 billion).Again,over 11%or USD 1.1 billion(KRW 1,400 billion)of the total health costs to society can be linked

52、 to NPS share of the power plants.Table 2.South Korea total and NPS attributed deaths from coal power air pollutionbetween 2021 and 2022,by cause(95%confidence interval in parentheses)Other health impacts occur as a result of coal-fired pollution in South Korea.An estimated 2,760 children suffered f

53、rom asthma due to pollution exposure in 2021 and 2022 combined,of which 315 can be attributed to NPS linkage with the power plants.589 new cases of asthma in children arose in the two years with 67 linked to NPS,and a further 285 preterm births occurred,32 of which linked to NPS.Over 2,000 years liv

54、ed with disability due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease,diabetes or stroke of which an estimated 260 were linked to NPS.Additionally,there were approximately 809,000 work absences as a result of people having to take sick leave days due to numerous pollution-related health issues,of which ov

55、er 90,000 cases can be ascribed to NPS.PollutantCausesSouth Korea totalNPS NO2 all causes401(194831)46(2294)PM2.5chronic obstructive pulmonary disease110(39212)12(424)diabetes10(320)1.1(0.32.2)ischaemic heart disease230(167300)26(1933)lower respiratory infections283(89517)31(1056)lung cancer173(8328

56、8)19(932)stroke239(92442)27(1049)SO2 all causes336(226454)38(2652)total cases of deaths1,968(1,3452,861)220(150321)total economic costs(USD billion)9.6(6.613.8)1.1(0.71.5)15Total number of cases NPS-linked number of casesCauseBest estimateLow estimateHigh estimateBest estimateLow estimateHigh estima

57、tenew cases of asthma in children5891271,3326714152number of children suffering from asthma due to pollution exposure(increased prevalence)2,7676925,961315 79679asthma emergency room visits563348775633987preterm births285 138 302321534work absence(sick leave days)809,800688,900929,90090,69077,150104

58、,100years lived with disability2,3337614,70525984522Table 3.Total health impacts in South Korea and NPS attributed health impactsbetween 2021 and 2022 from coal power air pollution Isolating the health impacts per plant and by the share attributed to NPS,the highest impacts come from power plants wi

59、th the highest capacities,namely the 6,400 MW Taean power plant with 26 annual deaths and costs of USD 120 million(KRW 155 billion),the 6,040 MW Dangjin plant with 23 deaths and total economic costs of USD 110 million(KRW 142 billion),and the 5,080 MW Yeongheung plant with 18 deaths in 2022 and all

60、its impacts costing the economy USD 113 million(KRW 84 billion).Table 4.Annual NPS attributed health impacts and total costs in 2022,per power plantPlant nameAsthma emergency room visitsDeathsNew cases of asthma in childrenWork absencesCost,USD millionCost,KRW billionBoryeong2(1 3)6(4 9)1(0 3)2,990(

61、2,540 3,440)30(21 42)39(27 54)Bukpyeong0(0 0)0(0 1)0(0 0)169(143-194)2(1 3)3(1 4)Dangjin7(4 9)23(16 33)7(1 15)9,500(8,080 10,900)110(75 160)142(97 206)Donghae1(1 1)3(2 4)0(0 0)1,440(1,220 1,650)15(11 19)19(14 25)Gangneung Anin0(0 0)0(0 0)0(0 0)18(15 21)0(0-0)0(0-0)Goseong Hi0(0-0)1(1 1)0(0 0)375(319

62、 431)5(3 6)6(4 8)Hadong3(2 4)10(7 15)3(1 6)4,250(3,620 4,880)56(39 78)72(50 101)Samcheok Green Power1(1 2)4(3 6)1(0 1)2,030(1,720 2,330)22(16 30)28(21 39)Samcheonpo1(1 2)5(3 7)1(0 3)1,930(1,640 2,220)26(18 38)34(23 49)ShinBoryeong1(1 1)3(2 4)1(0 1)1,500(1,270 1,720)15(10 21)19(13 27)Shin Seocheon0(0

63、 0)1(0 1)0(0 1)251(214 289)3(2 4)4(3 5)Taean8(5 11)26(18 39)9(2 20)10,900(9,310 12,600)120(81 177)155(105 228)Yeongheung5(3 7)18(12 27)5(1 12)7,210(6,140 8,280)87(59 127)113(76 164)Yeosu0(0 1)4(2 7)4(1 9)664(565 763)20(11 37)26(14 48)16The Inconsistent Coal-Free Pledge of Koreas National Pension Ser

64、vice-An analysis on the air pollution and health damage caused by the NPS coal investmentAs the Ministry of Health and Welfare of South Korea(MOHW)oversees the NPS and is also responsible for public health,it seems imperative to identify the current situation regarding public health related to coal-

65、linked emissions and prepare countermeasures at the national health level.However,related research and policies seem to be lacking.17RecommendationsThis study shows alarming results in terms of air pollution and health damage caused by the National Pension Services domestic coal investments.The cumu

66、lative losses are expected to increase if the NPS continues to delay establishing science-based and effective policies restricting coal investments.This study proposes the following coal divestment policies to prevent further health and economic losses.1.As a public pension fund,the NPS should activ

67、ely engage in climate action to remain within the 1.5C degree limit set out in the Paris Climate Agreement.2.Expand the definition of the coal industry to include the entire coal value chain.3.The quantitative criteria for classifying coal companies should be set at a minimum of 30%by revenue(or,in

68、the case of power generation companies,by electricity generation).The criteria must be progressively strengthened.4.Establish standards for active stewardship activities and enhance transparency for coal companies.18The Inconsistent Coal-Free Pledge of Koreas National Pension Service-An analysis on

69、the air pollution and health damage caused by the NPS coal investmentAppendix A:Calculation methodology for NPS financed emissions from domestic coal power plantsA.Shareholding Attribution FactorThe attribution factor for stocks is calculated through the following two steps.Step 1 Calculate the prop

70、ortion of the total assets of the power plant in the total assets for the power company.In the case of unlisted companies,the“consolidated total assets is used in the consolidated financial statements.The total assets of power plants under construction are replaced by the project costs in the busine

71、ss plan.Step 2In order to have the final attribution factor linked to shareholding,calculate the proportion of the NPSs investment in the power generation company multiplied by the result in Step 1.The five power generation companies-KOEN,KOMIPO,KOWEPO,KOSPO,and EWP -are all subsidiaries of the publ

72、icly traded KEPCO.The PCAF methodology uses Enterprise Value Including Cash(EVIC)for the calculation,which can be derived as the sum of the parent companys market capitalization and its consolidated debt.However,the four power plants involving private operators-Bukpyeong Power Plant,Samcheok Coal Po

73、wer Plant,Gangneung Anin Coal Power Plant,and Goseong Hai Thermal Power Plant receive the investment of the Pension Service through affiliated companies connected to the power plants between Step 1 and Step 2.Hence,the following step is calculated between Step 1 and Step 2 and the resulting value(b)

74、is multiplied in Step 2 instead of the value(a)derived in Step 1.Power plants consolidated total assets=aPower companys consolidated total assetsMarket Cap of the parent company*equity share of NPSa*Market Cap of the parent company+Consolidated debta*arent company investment(equity share)in the powe

75、r generation company19B.Bondholding Attribution Factor The attribution factor related to bonds is the sum of the direct investment made by the NPS by acquiring bonds issued by the power generation company and the indirect investment made through the acquisition of bonds issued by the parent company.

76、The only actors involved in the operation of coal-fired power plants in South Korea are KEPCO and its 5 subsidiaries,and Samcheok Blue Power,operator of Samcheok Coal Power Plant,and POSCO Holdings,which established Samcheok Blue Power.Consequently,the following will focus on these specific actors.D

77、irect Bond InvestmentIndirect Bond InvestmentTotal bonds acquired by the NPS from KEPCO and Subsidiaries OR Samcheok Blue PowerKEPCO Market cap of the power company+Consolidated debt OR Samcheok Blue Power total assets+debtTotal bonds acquired by NPS from POSCO Holdings consolidated entity*POSCO Hol

78、dings equity share in the power generation companyPOSCO Holdings Market cap+Consolidated debt20The Inconsistent Coal-Free Pledge of Koreas National Pension Service-An analysis on the air pollution and health damage caused by the NPS coal investmentC.NPS related financial data sources The data on dir

79、ect and indirect equity investments of the NPS in coal power plants is based on business reports published in the Financial Supervisory Services Electronic Disclosure System(DART).NPS bond investment dataTable A-C-1.NPS bond investment dataPower plant and power generator consolidated financial dataT

80、able A-C-2.Power plant and power generator consolidated financial dataCompany nameType of data SourceAll Power CompanyTotal AssetsRequest to the National Assembly(2023.04.06)All Power PlantsAsset ValueRequest to the National Assembly(2023.04.06)Korea Electric Power Corp(KEPCO)Market CapitalisationTo

81、p Market Cap/Korea Exchange/Information&Data Systems(krx.co.kr)(KOSPI on 2022.12.29)Korea Electric Power Corp(KEPCO)Current and Non-current Financial LiabilitiesKEPCO/Business Report/Consolidated Financial Statement(2023.04.10)(fss.or.kr)POSCO HoldingsMarket CapitalisationTop Market Cap/Korea Exchan

82、ge/Information&Data Systems(krx.co.kr)(KOSPI on 2022.12.29)POSCO HoldingsLong Term Borrowings Borrowings POSCO/Business Report/Consolidated Financial Statement(2023.03.09)(fss.or.kr)POSCO InternationalMarket CapitalisationTop Market Cap/Korea Exchange/Information&Data Systems(krx.co.kr)(KOSPI on 202

83、2.12.29)POSCO InternationalNumber of SharesPOSCO International/Business Report/Consolidated Financial Statement(2023.03.10)(fss.or.kr)POSCO InternationalShare PriceGoogle Finance(on 2022.12.29)Samcheok Blue PowerTotal AssetsSamcheok Blue Power/Business Report/Financial Statement(2023.03.30)(fss.or.k

84、r)Samcheok Blue PowerLiquidity Debt+Debenture+Long Term Borrowings Samcheok Blue Power/Business Report/Financial Statement(2023.03.30)(fss.or.kr)InvestorInvesteeInvestment amount(USD)Data sourceNational Pension ServicePOSCO Holdings239,808,153National Pension-Courtesy of the Office of Choi Younghee,

85、National Assem-bly Member(2023.02.13)National Pension ServiceKorea Electric Power Corp(KEPCO)15,166,608,500,000National Pension-Courtesy of the Office of Choi Younghee,National Assem-bly Member(2023.02.13)National Pension ServiceSamcheok Blue Power23,207,240National Pension-Courtesy of the Office of

86、 Choi Younghee,National Assem-bly Member(2023.02.13)21AppendixB:Air pollution and health impact analysis methodology and dataThis study follows CREAs impact pathway approach(IPA)to quantify the health impacts of coal power generation.It is carried out by(1)developing a plant-by-plant inventory of em

87、issions;(2)estimating pollution dispersion from CFPPs through atmospheric modeling;(3)quantifying air pollution health impacts resulting from changes in ambient concentration;and(4)valuing impacts in monetary terms using a cost of illness method.The analysis was carried out in the R data analysis so

88、ftware,in a global spatial grid with 1x1 km resolution,with health impacts calculated for each grid cell.All datasets were aggregated or interpolated to this resolution as required.A.Emissions A plant-by-plant emissions inventory was used as input data to the CALPUFF model,accounting for plant-speci

89、fic technology,location,and capacity for every operating coal plant in the country(see Appendix C).Information on combustion and emission control technology,coal type used,stack height and diameter,as well as flue gas release velocity and temperature were used to calculate emissions load and account

90、 for plume release height and thermal rise of pollutants.If a plants emissions values were lacking or unavailable,it was generalized using average values for projects with similar capacity and combustion technology.We assumed that such plants were in compliance with the countrys emissions standards

91、and operating emission controls technology at full capacity.Information on installed emission controls was also collected from these primary documents,as well as the S&P(2020)World Electric Power Plants database.Stack height as well as flue gas exit velocity and temperature were imputed from availab

92、le data following the same approach.When missing,the stack diameter was calculated based on the estimated total flue gas volume flow and velocity.If unavailable,thermal efficiencies of 37%,41%and 43%were assumed for subcritical,supercritical and ultra-supercritical plants,respectively,in line with i

93、ndustry standards.Separately,mercury emissions were projected using the formula:EHg=CC x MC x(1-CE),where CC is the coal consumption mass rate of the plant,MC is the mercury content of the coal,and CE is the capture efficiency.For toxic deposition from main boilers of the power plants,30%of emitted

94、fly ash was assumed to be PM2.5,and 37.5%PM10,in line with the U.S.EPA(1998)AP-42 default value for electrostatic precipitators(ESP).Mercury deposition was modeled for three different types of 22The Inconsistent Coal-Free Pledge of Koreas National Pension Service-An analysis on the air pollution and

95、 health damage caused by the NPS coal investmentmercury:elemental,reactive gaseous and particle-bound mercury,with the speciation between the three types calculated based on Lee et al.(2006).For other heavy metals,emissions data was not available.NPS responsibility for emissions and impacts estimate

96、s are calculated using the 10th and 90th percentiles of values in USGS coal samples(USGS,2011),and assuming an enrichment factor of 1 from ash in unburned coal to fly ash emitted from the stack,in line e.g.with the empirical results of Linak et al.(2000).B.Atmospheric modeling The CALPUFF modeling s

97、ystem was used to predict the contribution of CFPPs to ambient air pollutant concentrations at every modeled“receptor”location.These results were processed to extract the annual mean,24-hour maximum and 1-hour maximum pollutant concentrations for 2019.CALPUFF is the most widely used,industry-standar

98、d emission dispersion model for long-range air quality impacts of point sources.It is able to model the formation of secondary sulfate and nitrate particles from coal power SO2 and NOx emissions and long-range transport.These two mechanisms are responsible for more than 90%of the populations exposur

99、e to PM2.5 and for the health impacts of CFPP emissions;their exclusion would mean omitting the majority of the health impacts.By accounting for transport,chemical transformation and deposition of pollutants,it provides short and long-range impacts caused by coal plant emissions.Meteorological data

100、used for the simulations were generated with the WRF model,on a 9x9 km grid.Land-use data were obtained from the European Space Agency(2018)and terrain elevation data were obtained from NASA Shuttle Radar Topography Mission(SRTM)high-resolution datasets(Farr et al.,2007).Deposition results were diff

101、erentiated by land-use type using the European Space Agency global land-use map for the year 2015 at a 300 m resolution(ESA,2018).Land-use codes 10-30 were mapped as cropland;codes 50-100 were mapped as forest and code 170 as mangrove.Monthly average backgrounds for NH3,O3 and H2O2 concentrations we

102、re also obtained from the Geos-Chem model results(Koplitz et al.,2017)and were inputted into the CALPUFF chemistry module(ISORROPIA/RIVAD).23C.Health impact assessment&economic valuationMajor air pollutantsThe health impact assessment methodology and the economic valuation are adapted from CREAs“Qua

103、ntifying the Economic Costs of Air Pollution from Fossil Fuels”(Myllyvirta,2020).Data on the total population and population age structure,as well as all mortality results,baseline death rates and years of life lost in South Korea were taken from the GBD project 2019(IHME,2020).The baseline concentr

104、ations of PM2.5 and NO2 were taken from van Donkelaar et al.(2016)and Larkin et al.(2017),respectively.The health impacts are adjusted by age group-specific changes in population and all-cause mortality,based on historical data and projections in UNPD World Population Prospects 2019(medium variant).

105、Additionally,economic costs are adjusted by changes in per capita GDP(PPP).Up to 2019,the data are taken from the World Bank Databank,and future projections from OECD GDP long-term forecasts.The forecasts and historical data until 1989 include GDP in constant prices but without PPP adjustment,so gro

106、wth rates in PPP adjusted GDP are assumed equal to the growth rates of real GDP.Past and future costs are discounted to 2019 value at 4%/year,as recommended by e.g.Hurley et al.(2005).Table B-C-1.Power plant and power generator consolidated financial dataEffectValuation CurrencyUnitYearSourceAdjustm

107、entReference Income levelElasticityNew asthma cases 3,914USDcase2010Brandt et al.(2012)GDP PPPCalifornia1Asthma emergency room visits 844USDvisit2010Brandt et al.(2012)GDP PPPCalifornia1Preterm birth 321,989USDbirth2010Trasande et al.(2016)GDP PPPUS1Disability62,800GBPyears lived with disability2018

108、Birchby(2019)GNI PPPUK1Premature deaths56,000EURlost life year2005EEA(2014)GNI PPPEU0.9Work absence130EURwork day2005EEA(2014)GDP PPPEU124The Inconsistent Coal-Free Pledge of Koreas National Pension Service-An analysis on the air pollution and health damage caused by the NPS coal investmentTable B-C

109、-2.Input parameters and data used to estimate economic costs of health impacts converted to South Korean Won(KRW)OutcomeWorld Avg.GDP,2011 USDValuation in South Korea,2011 USDValuation in South Korea,2019 USDValuation in South Korea,2019 KRWpreterm births105,725 283,419.47211,010.67245,902,871.97wor

110、k absence(sick leave days)85227.86169.65197,699.16years of life lost39,32495,517.8371,114.6782,874,018.24years lived with disability 31,04783,228.4161,964.9972,211,364.07number of children suffering from asthma due to pollution exposure(increased prevalence)1,1683,131.082,331.152,716,619.10asthma em

111、ergency room visits252675.54502.95586,119.8725AppendixC:StackpropertiesandemissionsdataThefollowingtableincludesdataforeachoftheindividualcoal-firedpowerplantsandunitsinSouthKoreathatwereusedforthemodeling.TheemissionsinputswereusedasinputdataintheCALPUFFModeling.TableC-1.Coordinates,stackproperties

112、andairpollutantemissions(2021and2022)ofSouthKoreancoal-firedpowerplantsCoordinatesStack PropertiesEmissions inputs(t/pa),2021Emissions inputs(t/pa),2022Power PlantLatLongStack height,meterDia-meter,meterExit Temp,CelsiusFlue Gas VelocitySOxNOxPMSOxNOxPMYeosu Unit 137.569126.6401505.185.9624.59329.75

113、283.5012.3717.77254.137.75Yeosu Unit 237.569126.6401504.879.327.09233.66272.910.4837.68256.399.15Yeongheung Unit 137.237126.4382006.677.522.05583.60 536.5138.11000Yeongheung Unit 237.237126.4382006.679.725.7871.84 733.5347.17113.2484.796.44Yeongheung Unit 337.235126.4381986.390.528.7561.78 355.7119.

114、37829.81 531.8630.41Yeongheung Unit 437.235126.4381986.387.629.7706.79 441.9322.62642.67 408.0427.20Yeongheung Unit 537.249126.4382006.899.527.6463.08 373.7921.82497.83 437.8831.35Yeongheung Unit 637.249126.4382006.892.528.4528.19 362.5022.10501.42 401.1332.83Taean Unit 136.904126.238150.38.8311117.

115、5305.19 327.4934.65305.38 336.1447.58Taean Unit 236.905126.237150.38.8311117.5247.86 324.5845.27246.17 227.7232.73Taean Unit 336.904126.236150.38.8311117.5290.61 337.6133.45251.45 358.9739.23Taean Unit 436.904126.236150.38.8311117.5271.86 385.4736.01596.46 371.3634.93Taean Unit 536.902126.22961505.4

116、13714.2341.15 359.6612.10602.87 469.1626.44Taean Unit 636.902126.22591505.413714.2706.61 532.2340.25588.86 471.3631.85Taean Unit 736.903126.2321505.413916.5317.02 494.0821.27227.30 337.5319.43Taean Unit 836.902126.2321505.413916.5241.57 340.6018.90304.09 424.6518.32Taean Unit 9 36.9022126.2291507.71

117、3514375.71 541.8819.40249.34 429.0116.05Taean Unit 1036.902126.2291507.713514399.42 440.2323.52511.68 586.4023.04Shin Boryeo-ng Unit 136.385126.4881507.59027.62439.44 222.3917.21523.63 271.0521.29Shin Boryeo-ng Unit 236.385126.4881507.59027.62645.18 382.2533.17267.31 208.3418.03Samcheonpo Unit 334.9

118、11128.1082005.1697.22 17.4725 558.41 806.7227.80624.92 855.0645.69Samcheonpo Unit 434.910128.1892005.1699.21 18.3925 754.721091.4453.36410.33 654.8149.53Samcheonpo Unit 534.911128.1082005.1684.9716.80590.97101.978.56256.23 166.568.18Samcheonpo Unit 634.911128.1082005.1680.0216.7922.6021.682.24180.36

119、 180.6511.2626The Inconsistent Coal-Free Pledge of Koreas National Pension Service-An analysis on the air pollution and health damage caused by the NPS coal investmentCoordinatesStack PropertiesEmissions inputs(t/pa),2021Emissions inputs(t/pa),2022Power PlantLatLongStack height,meterDia-meter,meterE

120、xit Temp,CelsiusFlue Gas VelocitySOxNOxPMSOxNOxPMSamcheok Green Power Unit 137.186129.338907.97155.3 25.2785 447.11 375.4048.31234.63 450.0850.67Samcheok Green Power Unit 237.187129.338907.97155.3 25.2785 296.56 241.3948.18254.24 407.0460.02Samcheok Blue Power Unit 1*37.243129.1023207.49030691.96 33

121、2.5365.35691.96 332.5365.35Samcheok Blue Power Unit 2*37.243129.1023207.49030691.96 332.5365.35691.96 332.5365.35Hadong Unit 134.9497127.821509.38515.12597.14337.8938.22 481.30 271.46 31.28Hadong Unit 234.951127.821509.38515.12467.82403.7729.90422.45444.6432.84Hadong Unit 334.9504127.8191509.38515.1

122、2390.71 399.4527.76392.84 507.6031.47Hadong Unit 434.952127.291509.38515.12432.07 426.5125.88323.30 362.1019.35Hadong Unit 534.952127.8191509.38515.12319.61 355.3728.28562.75 518.3441.02Hadong Unit 634.953127.8191509.38515.12511.84 548.0631.07500.85 447.7223.91Hadong Unit 734.955127.8191505.49122.66

123、471.30 432.1129.97430.08 369.2426.56Hadong Unit 834.954127.8181505.49122.66539.11 410.8340.83455.06 398.5841.36Donghae Unit 137.2907129.085150414019.43656.93 221.648.17712.04 219.778.50Donghae Unit 237.2909129.085150414019.43611.72 205.979.64551.30 178.727.26Dangjin Unit 137.0568126.5151506.5851.032

124、95.42 168.0535.66000Dangjin Unit 237.057126.5151506.58519.03280.36 156.7128.84455.20 298.0746.45Dangjin Unit 337.057126.5131506.58519.03312.22 164.4037.33357.51 251.3932.62Dangjin Unit 437.057126.5121506.58519.03310.25 131.4925.5032.5111.072.48Dangjin Unit 537.058126.5111505.49124.03244.37 182.2338.

125、34352.04 289.4857.04Dangjin Unit 637.058126.50851505.49124.03382.21183.7635.75199.59212.8234.60Dangjin Unit 737.059126.5081505.49023.32256.76163.4631.77258.51 195.2631.53Dangjin Unit 837.059126.50691505.49123.32371.36 212.9744.62299.05239.8547.68Dangjin Unit 937.0536126.5062087.39026.17900.30426.990

126、.40615.67469.2418.84Dangjin Unit 1037.0547126.5032087.39026.17692.32360.470.36702.45591.2054.31Bukpyeong Unit 137.477129.1461505.49326.81795.22306.8116.15163.79309.2518.23Bukpyeong Unit 237.477129.1461505.49326.817102.64304.1512.14167.51 271.7516.91Boryeong Unit 336.402126.4911508.799022.25100.2465.

127、4921.33117.4258.7039.26*Samcheok Blue Power emissions inputs are future estimates27CoordinatesStack PropertiesEmissions inputs(t/pa),2021Emissions inputs(t/pa),2022Power PlantLatLongStack height,meterDia-meter,meterExit Temp,CelsiusFlue Gas VelocitySOxNOxPMSOxNOxPMBoryeong Unit 436.402126.4911508.76

128、9019.96384.77275.9832.430.571.570.24Boryeong Unit 536.402126.4931508.799019.96654.25378.8047.44439.52312.78 24.89Boryeong Unit 636.402126.4931508.799019.96554.91303.7428.76 541.84 316.77 33.27Boryeong Unit 736.402126.4951505.49032.7158.46170.09 30.70 184.17 154.50 31.38Boryeong Unit 836.402126.49515

129、05.49032.7274.17 197.61 29.63 248.18 215.47 26.88Shin Seocheon 36.145126.4981507.59124.890.25 133.81 12.10 119.92206.5712.64Goseong Hi Unit 134.906128.1271907.59024.78429.15 407.61 10.02 618.73378.2313.07Goseong Hi Unit 234.906128.1271907.59024.7884.2075.412.17623.17378.4313.46Gangneung Anin Unit 13

130、7.435128.5841077.693.820442.09269.10 38.44442.09269.10 38.44Gangneung Anin Unit 237.435128.5841077.693.820442.09269.10 38.44442.09269.10 38.4428The Inconsistent Coal-Free Pledge of Koreas National Pension Service-An analysis on the air pollution and health damage caused by the NPS coal investmentRef

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