群邑（GroupM）：2020年全球廣告市場年中預測報告（英文版）.pdf

1、THE GLOBAL MID-YEAR REPORT JUNE 2020 THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR THIS YEAR THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT 2 GLOBAL MID-YEAR FORECAST REPORT Overview Advertising Growth Forecasts Key Assumptions Impact on Media and Consumers Digital Exten

2、sions Media Trends Digital Advertising Television Outdoor Print Audio Conclusion JUNE 2020 WPP Employees Visit GroupM Clients Please speak with your account director for the full file. General Inquiries Visit and search for the latest “This Year Next Year.” 03 05 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 14 14 15 THIS Y

3、EAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT 3 OVERVIEW To describe 2020 as a disruptive year around the world would be an understatement. In January alone, we saw France and Hong Kong feature significant strikes or protests, the escalation of hostilities (again) between the United States and Iran, the U.K.

4、formally exited the European Union and trade policies between many countries in severe flux. Meanwhile, the spread of COVID-19 turned into a pandemic, leading to widespread global actions to restrict social and economic activity in an effort to limit the virus death toll. Governments also implemente

5、d massive stimulus programs while companies and other organizations that could continue to operate found new ways to do so. Despite those efforts, economies around the world are expected to be very weak this year, with declines in output typically expected to outpace what was observed during the glo

6、bal financial crisis. The consequences of the pandemic have only barely begun to play out as we reach mid-year, not least as we have only experienced its first wave so far. Many issues that were boiling over, or ready to do so, before the pandemic will become amplified as the pandemic continues. Pro

7、tests for social justice in the United States and other markets are one particularly important illustration. Historical events such as these are having, and will continue to have, a profound impact on the industry as well. Companies across a wide range of sectors reacted to the pandemic by initially

8、 focusing on employee safety and corporate survival with cost- cutting initiatives and by tapping into government-based liquidity programs in many instances. Some categories of marketers faced heightened risks, as with travel (including airlines and hotels because of immediate elimination of most tr

9、avel around the world by mid-March), the automotive sector (because of shut-downs of manufacturing capacity, supply chain challenges and the probability that consumers would defer making big purchases) and much of the entertainment industry. Retail and food service businesses were another pair of ca

10、tegories facing massive challenges, but they also were presented with significant opportunities in having to shut down or adapt their operating models. In many cases, retailers were able to aggressively implement plans to integrate digital or virtual activities with traditional undertakings. As a re

11、sult, during the pandemic, there has been a significant acceleration in e-commerce sales activity while overall retail activity declined by historically high rates. In April, a period when major markets generally experienced the heights of social restrictions (except for China, which was emerging fr

12、om them), comparable retail sales fell by 16% in the U.S., 22% in the U.K. and 8% in China. We can estimate that each market saw an approximate 600bps/6% increase in share of retail activity associated with e-commerce. Also, during April, China and the U.K. generated around 30% of retail activity fr

13、om e-commerce, while the figure was closer to 20% in the U.S. THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT 4 Many small businesses had to participate in this transition as well, as evidenced by recent earnings results from Shopify an e- commerce software platform skewed toward smaller businesses that c

14、onveyed accelerated growth during April. However, many other small businesses and the employees who work for them are probably not faring so well. Small businesses in countries around the world were already generally losing share to larger ones and were heavily skewed toward the industries most impa

15、cted by social distancing (i.e. restaurants, personal services, etc.). As the OECD described matters in a recent release, “SMEs (small and medium-sized enterprises) are particularly at risk of failure from prolonged lockdown measures” and added that “SMEs account for the bulk of employment in the mo

16、st affected sectors.” Employees who work in those sectors also likely earn significantly less than employees in other industries. To illustrate, we looked at U.S. Census Bureau data from the most recent Economic Census in 2017. Combined, retail trade, excluding grocery stores, building materials sto

17、res and non-store retailers (each categories of retail that expanded during April), alongside arts and recreation, accommodation and food services and other services (excluding public administration) account for 25% of employment but only 12% of payrolls. If we look at businesses in these categories

18、 with fewer than 500 employees, workers account for 30% of all employment. On the other hand, if we look at all businesses in these categories with more than 500 employees, workers at these companies only account for 21% of all employment. The combination of these issues leads to a relatively concen

19、trated impact of the pandemic and helps explain why advertising is not faring as badly as might have been expected earlier in the year. They also help explain why pre-existing issues within societies could be exacerbated by the crisis, heightening risks of ongoing and expanding consequences. REAL (I

20、NFLATION-ADJUSTED) GDP: ANNUALIZED GROWTH 2009 ACTUAL2020 FORECAST UNITED STATES-2.5%-7.3% CHINA+9.4%-2.6% JAPAN-5.4%-6.0% UNITED KINGDOM-4.3%-11.5% GERMANY-5.7%-6.6% FRANCE-2.9%-11.4% BRAZIL-0.1%-7.4% AUSTRALIA+1.9%-5.0% CANADA-2.9%-8.0% INDIA+7.9%-3.7% SOURCE: 2009 Actual figures as aggregated by

21、Refinitiv, 2020 Forecasts per OECD June 2020, “single-hit” scenarios. THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT 5 During 2020, we estimate that the global advertising economy will fall by 11.8%, excluding the effects of increased political advertising in the U.S. This is a sharp decline from the gro

22、wth rate from 2019 of 6.2% and returns the industry to slightly higher than 2017 levels in constant currency terms. While severe to be sure, 2020s decline can still be considered “modest” given the scale of the impact of the pandemic on global GDP, which will fall by much more than it did in the 200

23、9 global financial crisis. During that year, when GDP declined by 1%, we estimate that global advertising fell by 11.2% in nominal terms. Including U.S. political advertising, we estimate global advertising will decline by 9.9% in 2020. The median market should decline by more, or 12.2%, which in pa

24、rt reflects that declines are less pronounced in the worlds top two advertising markets, the U.S. (expected to fall 7.5% including political advertising) and China (expected to fall 2.8%). These two combine to account for more than half of the worlds total advertising activity. Among other top 10 ma

25、rkets from 2019, we expect to see the following rates of decline: Japan: 20% United Kingdom: 12.5% Germany: 9.9% France: 15% The only multi-billion-dollar market where we expect to see real growth this year is in Indonesia, where expectations are for 5.8% growth. Argentina is the only other market e

26、xpected to grow in nominal terms, although it should decline on an inflation-adjusted basis. Canada: 5.1% Brazil: 29.1% South Korea: 1.8% Australia: 19% ADVERTISING GROWTH FORECASTS -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 2000200520102015 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND ADVERTISING 2024 Source: GroupM, Refini

27、tiv, OECD. GDP reflects GDP for OECD and Other Large Economies Under June 2020 Single Hit Scenario. Advertising (excluding U.S. Political) GDP THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT 6 On the other extreme, several mid-size or larger markets are expected to decline by more than 20% this year. In a

28、ddition to Brazil, we expect such an outcome from India, the MENA region and Spain. Expectations for 2021 diverge somewhat given a wide range of expectations and potential outcomes for different markets around the world next year. In some, the economic consequences of 2020 will outlast the discovery

29、 of a vaccine. In others, pent-up demand is expected to over-compensate for 2020s losses. Overall, we expect global advertising to grow by 8.2% next year on an ex-U.S. political basis, or by 5.9% including it. The median market is expected to grow by 10%. Looking at larger markets, we expect a 0.9%

30、decline in the U.S. on a basis that includes political advertising. This implicitly reflects expectations of a relatively slow recovery there when compared with other countries. China should grow much faster given the degree to which the markets underlying growth as measured by our refined historica

31、l data-set was previously relatively robust, and the degree to which that underlying growth is expected to resume. As a result, we anticipate growth of 9.2% for China next year. Among the top 10 markets, most expect to see double-digit growth including Japan (15%), the U.K. (12.6%), Germany (10.6%),

32、 Brazil (15.0%) and Australia (25.2%). Meanwhile, Canada and South Korea anticipate low single digit gains while France anticipates high single digit growth during 2021. “While severe to be sure, 2020s decline can still be considered modest given the scale of the impact of the pandemic on global GDP

33、, which will fall by much more than it did in the 2009 global financial crisis.” THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT 7 KEY ASSUMPTIONS The full impact of the pandemic will vary widely by market this year and beyond because of factors including the degree to which a given territorys government

34、and society: Limited the spread of the virus upon its arrival Enabled “hibernation” policies for its economy Accepted, or otherwise adopted, practices limiting the spread of the virus Assessing the path forward for any given economy mirrors challenges in assessing these factors. In our forecasts we

35、assume that a vaccine will be developed and distributed by some time in the first half of next year, although even the worlds foremost experts are hardly certain. To the extent that this does occur, we presume that all normal activities made particularly challenging with social distancing, including

36、 leisure-based travel and tourism, attending events or films with crowds, etc., will return in some form next year. Activities such as the Olympics are assumed to occur. Assumptions around professional sports returning vary by market. We further presume that consumers and businesses generally find w

37、ays to adapt most of their other activities regardless of the course of the pandemic. Economic activity is generally presumed to be somewhat normal after 2022, although the scale of decline and the actions taken at the present time will all have implications on the specific pace at which the economy

38、 expands, let alone when we return back to even just 2019 levels in any given market. This is, of course, a key assumption on its own: there are a wide range of social safety nets in different countries and the presence, or absence, of support systems for people who will be severely impacted by the

39、ongoing cataclysms represent another source of risk to a broader economic recovery. 8,090.5 4,654.0 3,031.4 2,293.5 2,280.6 1,795.6 1,091.1 1,076.5 975.6 903.9 0.01,000.02,000.0 3,000.0 4,000.0 5,000.0 6,000.0 7,000.0 8,000.0 9,000.0 China Japan UK Australia Germany India Brazil Italy France Spain S

40、OURCE: GroupM. (in millions) TOP CONTRIBUTORS TO 2021 GLOBAL GROWTH THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT 8 IMPACT ON MEDIA AND CONSUMERS As consumers increased their time at home during the early stages of the pandemics initial spread, we generally saw heightened levels of consumption of media,

41、 a commensurately rapid expansion of e-commerce activity and a subsequent acceleration in the pace at which businesses transformed their online and offline activities. More specifically, we generally saw rapid growth of TV consumption during the early parts of the crisis in essentially every market

42、that enacted meaningful social distancing rules. On-demand and streaming consumption was up by substantially more than these averages. Consumers also needed to change their shopping patterns and many companies obliged. E- commerce accelerated rapidly as retailers saw massive gains in their e-commerc

43、e sales despite significant declines in broader measures of retail activity. While these trends are unlikely to continue at such extremes through the remainder of the year (or the pandemic), they illustrate changes that have occurred and, in the case of digital activity, accelerated growth that will

44、 bring the economys digital transition forward. Hybrid business models featuring purchases online with in-store or curbside pickups will only become significantly more common going forward. 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201

45、1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 TV / Pro. VideoAudioNewspapers MagazinesOutdoor + CinemaDigital ADVERTISING SHARE BY MEDIUM (1999 2024) SOURCE: GroupM (includes digital extensions in traditional media categories) THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT 9 In this

46、version of This Year, Next Year we are introducing estimates of “digital extensions,” which refers to digital advertising associated with traditional media. These figures are broken out to show the degree to which traditional and digital advertising overlap within individual media types, provide a b

47、aseline around which digital trading concepts may be applied to traditional media and to ensure an absence of duplication with “pure-play” internet-based digital media owners. Organizing data in this way reflects the integrated manner with which most marketers look to manage their media budgets. We

48、also do this in order to improve the comparability of our figures across countries, given the differing conventions for quantifying different types of media that tend to exist around the world. In most markets, virtually all digital advertising activity is conventionally included in the “internet” l

49、ine, although in many others such spending is captured as part of traditional advertising. Establishing historical estimates for digital extensions of traditional media requires a high degree of subjectivity and, as a result, estimates are likely to be refined over time. On average, during 2020, digital extensions of TV, radio, print and outdoor advertising should equate to $31 billion, or 13% of total advertising activity, up from $22 billion, or 7%, five years ago. We expect digital extensions to continue taking share of traditional adver