群邑集團（GroupM）：2019年全球媒體預測報告（英文版）(44頁).pdf

1、WORLDWIDE MEDIA FORECASTS This Year Next Year JUNE 2019 WHAT DOES OUR FORECAST MEAN FOR MARKETERS? . . . . . 5 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 AUSTRALIA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 BRAZIL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2、. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 CANADA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 CHINA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 GERMANY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 INDIA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3、 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 UNITED KINGDOM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 UNITED STATES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 CONTENTS GroupM 3 World Trade Center 175 Greenwich Street New York, NY 10007 USA FOR THE FULL 70-COUNTRY FORECAST AND APP

4、ENDIX : ALL WPP EMPLOYEES: link to GROUPM CLIENTS: please speak with your client account director for the full data file or contact Brian Wieser () EVERYONE ELSE: contact Brian Wieser () WORLDWIDE MEDIA FORECASTS JUNE 2019 This Year Next Year All rights reserved. This publication is protected by cop

5、yright. No part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form, or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without written permission from the copyright owners. Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the contents, but the publ

6、ishers and copyright owners cannot accept liability in respect of errors or omissions. Readers will appreciate that the data is as up-to-date only to the extent that its availability, compilation and printed schedules will allow and is subject to change. 5 | WORLDWIDE MEDIA AND MARKETING FORECASTS J

7、UNE 2019 What does our forecast mean for marketers? Where media spending growth outpaces growth in ad inventory and produces inflationary conditions for like-for-like inventory, brand-focused marketers must continually evolve their tactics to optimize campaigns. For example, the timing of flights, t

8、he balance of resources allocated to data, consumer insights, creative content and media buys, and the relative utility of specific media owners must all be managed for greater efficiency. Marketers should continually look to develop alternative approaches to their communications efforts, so they ha

9、ve the credible ability to walk away from less desirable choices. 1 Where media spending growth is tepid or worse brand and performance marketers alike may still find valuable opportunities to use a medium, so long as the potential for campaign reach against target audiences is still relatively subs

10、tantial. In these situations where spending grows slowly (or declines faster) than consumption, opportunities to secure improved overall terms, presence and efficiency are likely to be produced. 2 Where territories economic growth is stronger than advertising growth, those markets may offer dispropo

11、rtionate benefits for shifts of ad budgets from global companies across countries. Using the IMFs expectations for economic growth and our own for advertising growth, in 2020, the widest gaps of this nature among the worlds 20 largest economies are found in Argentina, Switzerland, Italy, China and t

12、he Netherlands. Where economic growth is weaker than advertising growth, and unless there are meaningful changes in trends in media consumption or ad inventory management, those countries may be relatively less effective places to spend. The widest gaps of this nature among the top-20 markets includ

13、e the UK, Mexico, Australia, Indonesia and Spain. 3 THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR 6 | WORLDWIDE MEDIA AND MARKETING FORECASTS JUNE 2019 Introduction Growth with Fragile Foundations in 2019. On its face, the global economy appears to be healthy and growing. However, it would be equally apt to use the words the

14、 OECD chose in its May 2019 report characterizing conditions as “fragile,” warning that, “trade and policy uncertainties could significantly damage the world economy and further contribute to the growing divide between people.” Escalating trade tensions especially between the United States and China

15、, but also among the US and other parts of the world, and disruptions in Europe depending on how Brexit plays out along with broader and sometimes overlapping geopolitical disputes have weakened the foundations of a global economy built on trade. Other factors supporting growth may also be temporary

16、, such as increases in consumer and corporate spending associated with changes in tax policies if those policies do not lead to an improvement in long-term economic efficiency. At the same time, narrow distributions of economic gains within societies represent additional potential sources of long- t

17、erm risk, at least relative to something broader in its nature. We can see the global advertising industry in a similar light, with emerging signs of deceleration. While global advertising trends reported on a headline basis are forecast to grow by +3.4% in 2019 (down from +6.9% in 2018), this resul

18、t is heavily skewed by US political advertising, which by itself accounted for 1.5% of the worlds advertising total last year and will represent more with every passing election cycle. If we removed our estimates for this category in the US alone (the only market where the category meaningfully dist

19、orts growth rates), our reported 6.9% growth rate for 2018 would look more like +5.6%. 2019 would be +4.6% excluding US political advertising rather than the +3.4% headline figure. Notably, all of these growth figures would be lower than if a broader definition of media were used (including direct m

20、ail and directories, for example). Slight Global Acceleration into 2020. Aggregating expectations from around the world, our rolled-up forecast does look more favorable for 2020 with ex-US political growth of +4.7%, or +6.0% including it. While some large markets such as the US should decelerate sli

21、ghtly, more than half of the territories we track will post better growth than vs. 2019, and median growth will rise from +3.3% in 2019 to +3.8% in 2020. Some of the underlying improvement in 2020 is not directly associated with the economy and is instead due to the Olympics and World Cup, which can

22、 skew results in many countries around the world. Inflation, expected to fall a range of between 3% and 4% globally is also supporting this outcome, although it is not anticipated to be meaningfully different vs. 2019 or 2018. China, Brazil, India and the UK Look Particularly Resilient. At a country

23、 level, outside of the US, China, Japan, India, the UK and Brazil collectively account for well over half of global growth in each of 2019 and 2020, and so deserve some focus here. China, which represents one-sixth of global advertising, is also notable among the faster-growing countries because its

24、 absolute gain is once again so large. Growth in 2020 is expected to be +5.6% vs. 2019 which should be more like +5.2% a slowdown from pre-2018 levels, but still rapid vs. most other global markets. Brazil, now neck-and-neck with Germany for its standing as the worlds fifth-largest advertising marke

25、t, stands out the most for its reversal from a -0.9% decline in 2019 to a +6.1% gain in 2020, in part aided by a rebound on easy comparables, given conservative expectations this year and mid-single-digit inflation, despite mixed conditions for its overall economy. India is not forecast to be bother

26、ed by global challenges, although as with elsewhere, downside risks remain. Still, the country should still see double-digit growth in 2019 (+14%) and 2020 (+13%), allowing it to surpass Australia and Canada in size by next year as the worlds eighth-largest ad market. As for the UK, growth THIS YEAR

27、 NEXT YEAR 7 | WORLDWIDE MEDIA AND MARKETING FORECASTS JUNE 2019 20122013201420152016201720182019f2020f North America173,095174,427181,175185,976200,218208,845228,290234,668253,742 YOY%3.80.83.92.67.74.39.32.88.1 Latin America 19,85223,30824,84226,30424,18725,43128,42928,38930,012 YOY%7.217.46.65.9-

28、8.05.111.8-0.15.7 Western Europe 89,12487,87490,28292,51195,81999,853103,682106,874109,815 YOY%-2.9-1.42.72.53.64.23.83.12.8 Central and ultimately, is more immune to competition from the worlds digital giants, at least without significant incremental investment on their parts. Outdoor advertising,

29、6.4% of the worlds total this year, is somewhat compressed in 2019 with very little overall growth, but this is primarily because of the difficult comparable produced by US political advertising during 2018; growth should rebound in 2020, in part because of a return of US political. In Asia which no

30、w accounts for nearly half of the mediums global total, including its #2, #3 and #4 markets in China, Japan and South Korea similarly low underlying growth is anticipated there as well. We see similar expectations for the biggest European markets, the UK and Germany, and median growth of slightly mo

31、re than +3% in both of 2019 and 2020 for the medium in countries around the world. Radio is slightly smaller with closer to 5.3% global share and slightly weaker growth trends a decline of -2.2% in 2019 and a gain of +0.5% in 2020 although US political advertising distorts this number as well. Media

32、n growth for countries around the world is expected to be +1% in both years. THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR 10 | WORLDWIDE MEDIA AND MARKETING FORECASTS JUNE 2019 GroupMs long-term forecast model has one principal independent variable: the IMFs calculation of each countrys share of global GDP at PPP. This is i

33、ntended merely for scenario planning. GDP forecasts know nothing of structural changes in media advertising, so neither can this model. Long-term ad forecasts 2020f2021f2022f2023f2024f North America 253,742254,928272,768273,930293,454 YOY%8.10.57.00.47.1 Latin America 30,01232,24134,44736,74239,127

34、YOY%5.77.46.86.76.5 Western Europe 109,815113,767117,699121,587125,420 YOY%2.83.63.53.33.2 Central PWC IAB Online Advertising Expenditure Report Classifi ed Directories: out Production costs: out Agency commission: out Discounts from rate card: after Internet classifi ed: in 1.81.8 Media Total YOY%

35、change TVRadioPrintOut-of-homeCinemaDigital 2019f 2020f -1.2 -2.9 1.5 1.0 -6.5 -6.0 6.0 6.2 2.2 5.2 4.1 2.1 SOURCE: GROUPM YOY% change THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR 16 | WORLDWIDE MEDIA AND MARKETING FORECASTS JUNE 2019 After 100 days of Bolsonaro government (the new president since January 1st), all opinion

36、about the president is divided. According to research institute Datafolha, only 50% of Brazilians believe that the economy will improve in the coming months, down from 65% in the preceding count. In addition, the President is very active in social networks for government and personal affairs, which

37、has also divided opinion. The main challenge will be reversing the budget deficit, which ran 7% of GDP in 2018, improving to a forecast but still heavy 4% in 2019. Social security benefits represent more than 50% of the total costs of the federal government, and for that reason the change in the soc

38、ial security legislation is already being considered. Economists predict 2019 IPCA (consumer price inflation) of around 4%. Brazils GDP grew 1.1% in real terms in 2018, the same rate as 2017. The IMF has 2.1% in for 2019, a 0.4 point reduction from its prior forecast. Our advertising investment fore

39、cast is conservative in the context of this modest economic momentum, with no increase for 2019 and a positive expectation for 6%+ growth in 2020. Even so, 2018 final numbers show a growth of 15% in relation to the previous year, with the FIFA World Cup and elections helping total advertising invest

40、ment reach BRL 78.4mm. According to the 2018 panel released by the Conselho Executivo das Normas-Padro (CENP), open TV continues to command 58.3% of advertising investment in media buying. (Our own figures show 68%, but internet is under- measured in official numbers.) Brazil THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR 16

41、| WORLDWIDE MEDIA AND MARKETING FORECASTS JUNE 2019 THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR 17 | WORLDWIDE MEDIA AND MARKETING FORECASTS JUNE 2019 BRAZIL TV Radio Newspapers Magazines Cinema Internet Outdoor Media BRLmm 2020f % shares of media SOURCE: GROUPM 3.6 11.1 5.4 5.4 4.3 2.5 67.7 100 Media Total TV Radio Newspa

42、pers Magazines Cinema Internet Outdoor SOURCE: GROUPM TVRadioNewspapersMagazinesCinemaOutdoorInternet 78,483MM77,749MM82,458MM 20,257MM20,067MM 21,283MM Media Total USD MMBRL MM 2018 2019f 2020f 53,587 52,487 55,857 4,194 4,164 4,4144,593 4,533 4,474 2,738 2,848 2,962 1,950 1,950 2,036 3,571 3,289 3

43、,559 7,850 8,478 9,156 THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR 18 | WORLDWIDE MEDIA AND MARKETING FORECASTS JUNE 2019 BRAZIL Consumer spending YOY changes adjusted for infl ation 15 10 0 5 -10 ConsumerAdvertising -5 201220132015201620142020201920172018 SOURCE: GROUPM/HSBC Investment YOY changes adjusted for infl ation

44、15 10 5 -5 0 -15 -10 201220132015201620142020201920172018 InvestmentAdvertising SOURCE: GROUPM/HSBC THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR 19 | WORLDWIDE MEDIA AND MARKETING FORECASTS JUNE 2019 BRAZIL Historic media revenue: Ibope Monitor Internet comprises display and search but is undercounted Agency commission: in;

45、 typically 20% Discounts: after (ca. 50% from rate card) Newspaper classifi ed: in Internet classifi ed: out Ibope (Kantar) “Digital Display” covers only the ads served in the 100 desktop sites in its viewing rank, and does not monitor Google, Facebook, mobile, or automated buys targeting specifi c

46、audiences. “Internet” is therefore substantially understated. YOY% change 2.32.6 Media Total YOY% change TVRadioNewspapers MagazinesOutdoorCinemaInternet 2019f 2020f -2.1 -0.7 6.4 6.0 4.0 4.0 4.4 -7.9 8.2 8.0 8.0 0 -1.3 -1.3 SOURCE: GROUPM THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR 20 | WORLDWIDE MEDIA AND MARKETING FOREC

47、ASTS JUNE 2019 Canada TV has stabilized from both an audience and revenue perspective. Fall 2018 viewing figures showed a 2.5% increase compared to the previous fall. However, there is a distinction between live TV viewership and playback. Live was flat, and playback up 16%: a reflection of viewers

48、wanting to consume content at their convenience. The way in which people are consuming television is changing. Change in infrastructure is bringing about a decline in cable subscription and an increase in fiber-optic networks. We are also seeing a decline in paid subscription and an increase in “TV-

49、my-way” audiences (people who are not subscribing to a TV service or using an antenna, but still watching TV content via the internet.) Most TV subscribers supplement their viewing content with OTT subscriptions, with Netflix the dominant player in Canada. Radio remains stable from a revenue and audience perspective. The continued rise of audio streaming is fragmenting listenership with younger audiences. Canadian podcast listening among 18-34s grew 8% in just one year, and smart speakers, also po