中國CIO須制定芯片供應戰略應對美國的高性能處理器對華出口管制政策.pdf

1、 2023 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.This presentation,including all supporting materials,is proprietary to Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates and is for the sole internal use of the intended recipients.Because

2、 this presentation may contain information that is confidential,proprietary or otherwise legally protected,it may not be further copied,distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner,Inc.or its affiliates.Roger Sheng研究副總裁中國企業的CIOCIO們必須建立關鍵的芯片策略以應對禁運風險1 2023 Gartn

3、er,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.RESTRICTED高性能芯片是IT產業皇冠上的鉆石2 2023 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.RESTRICTED關鍵議題1.美國的先進芯片禁運對中國企業有多大的影響？2.如何制定芯片供應策略應對未來中美競爭局面？3 2023 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.RESTRICTED關鍵議題1.美國的先進芯片禁運對中國企業有多大的影響？2.如何制定

4、芯片供應策略應對未來中美競爭局面？4 2023 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.RESTRICTED美國的先進芯片禁運對中國企業有多大的影響？5 2023 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.RESTRICTED云服務操作系統/平臺網絡基礎設施計算設備（服務器，PC）MPU（通用微處理器），GPU，FPGADRAM，NAND，有線/無線連接芯片網絡處理器，Wired/Wireless網戀芯片4G/5G基帶芯片，高速接口芯片顯示驅動芯片，輸入輸出轉換

5、芯片軟件適配與硬件兼容性高速DRAM，大容量存儲芯片電源管理芯片，傳感器芯片，安全芯片應用處理器，微控制器，傳感器芯片有線/無線連接芯片，數模轉換芯片芯片是支撐ITIT產業和數字化的基礎設施應用6 2023 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.RESTRICTED實體名單高性能計算出口禁令先進芯片相關出口禁令針對特定中國科技公司針對特定高性能計算芯片覆蓋所有國內先進芯片制造（包括國際企業在華工廠）美國對中國高科技行業的制裁和禁運正在升級7 2023 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All

6、 rights reserved.RESTRICTED47.5%19.2%7.8%9.0%8.5%7.7%49.6%16.9%9.0%8.9%7.8%7.6%美國韓國歐洲日本中國臺灣中國其他202120222021排名2022排名半導體公司名2021營收（百萬美元）2022營收（百萬美元）2022成長率全球市場份額11Samsung Electronics73,197 63,823-12.8%10.6%22Intel72,701 58,436-19.6%9.7%53Qualcomm27,293 34,780 27.4%5.8%34SK hynix37,192 33,505-9.9%5.6%45

7、Micron Technology28,624 26,849-6.2%4.5%66Broadcom18,793 23,868 27.0%4.0%107AMD16,299 23,620 44.9%3.9%88Texas Instruments17,298 18,844 8.9%3.1%119Apple14,580 18,099 24.1%3.0%710 MediaTek17,617 18,043 2.4%3.0%1311 STMicroelectronics12,610 15,842 25.6%2.6%912 NVIDIA16,815 15,331-8.8%2.6%1213 Infineon T

8、echnologies12,681 14,587 15.0%2.4%1514 NXP10,844 12,954 19.5%2.2%1915 Analog Devices8,490 12,391 45.9%2.1%1716 Renesas Electronics9,120 11,372 24.7%1.9%1417 KIOXIA12,212 10,006-18.1%1.7%1818 Sony8,769 9,259 5.6%1.5%2019 Onsemi6,455 7,997 23.9%1.3%2120 Microchip Technology6,211 7,774 25.2%1.3%2931 OM

9、NIVISION3,115 2,470-20.7%0.4%3532 Nexperia(China owned)2,008 2,295 14.3%0.4%3833 Yangtze Memory Technologies1,776 2,090 17.7%0.3%3734 UniSoC Technologies1,814 2,080 14.7%0.3%Global Total Semiconductor Market598,365 599,562 0.2%全球半導體芯片市場規模以及主要廠商排名8 2023 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights re

10、served.RESTRICTED8%6%1%6%1%3%17%20%4%23%4%8%11%20%8%2%13%21%5%7%0%5%10%15%20%25%-1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Image SensorsOther memoryNon-optical sensorsDiscreteAnalogTDDIRFMCUWirelessDRAMDiscrete AP/MPDDIBasebandPMICNANDMPU全球市場份額2022年營收 百萬美元中國廠商的半導體產品在全球的位置（包括中國資本控制的企業）LEDWiredFPGAGPU

11、中國半導體產業在全球的市場占有率(2022)(2022)9 2023 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.RESTRICTED全球半導體市場采購規模6000億美元（2022）中國企業芯片采購金額1490億美元(25%)國內芯片廠商市場份額 25%國際芯片廠商市場份額 75%跨國企業中國工廠芯片采購金額2130億美元(35%)中國之外的國家芯片采購金額2380億美元(40%)中國對全球芯片供應鏈的依賴程度10 2023 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved

12、.RESTRICTED如何制定芯片供應策略應對未來中美競爭局面？11 2023 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.RESTRICTED政府促進政策 集成電路大基金 地方集成電路基金 科創板 產業補貼政策 自主可控要求 新型舉國體制芯片應用企業 供應商備胎策略 國內供應商認證 投資芯片設計 加強本地創新 獨立生態鏈發展本土芯片廠商成果 14nm以下工藝開發 3D NAND(2xxL)主流 DRAM 自主微處理器 成熟芯片國產替代 汽車用半導體導入美國的制裁加速了國內芯片產業的發展12 2023 Gartner,Inc.an

13、d/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.RESTRICTED自主可控核心芯片系統集成設備制造操作系統基礎軟件云服務中間件周邊固件網絡安全網絡服務互聯網平臺存儲系統標準認證應用軟件通過自主可控項目培育本土ITIT系統供應鏈13 2023 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.RESTRICTEDProductsProcess nodeEntity List龍芯Customized MIPS CPUs for server,PC and embedded system.12nm,28nmY

14、es海思ARM CPUs for server and PC;AI accelerators for cloud and edge.7nm,16nmYes飛騰ARM CPUs for server and PC.7nm,16nmYes海光x86 CPUs(Licensed from AMD)for server and PC,DPU for AI acceleration14nmYes兆芯x86 CPUs and GPUs for server,PC and embedded system.16nm,28nmYes申威Alpha CPUs for supercomputer,server,PC

15、 and embedded system.28nmYes平頭哥ARM server CPU,AI accelerators,RISC-V CPUs5nm,7nm,16nmNo百度AI accelerators for cloud and edge(automotive)7nm,14nmNo景嘉微GPUs for PC and embedded systems(military)14nm,28nmYes地平線AI accelerators for edge(automotive)16nm,28nmNo寒武紀AI accelerators for cloud/edge7nm,16nmYes燧原AI

16、 accelerators for cloud/edge12nmNo壁仞GPUs/AI accelerators for cloud/edge7nmNo摩爾線程GPUs/AI accelerators for cloud/edge and PC7nmNo天數智芯GPUs/AI accelerators for cloud/edge7nm,16nmNo墨芯AI accelerators for cloud/edge14nmNo國內ITIT系統自主可控相關主要芯片廠商情況14 2023 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.RE

17、STRICTED ARM通用處理器（Arm in PCs/Servers)異構集成（Heterogeneous integration)RISC-V架構處理器（RISC-V CPU)高性能持久內存（High-performance persistent memory)芯片光互聯（Interchip optical interconnects)3D DRAM 三維芯片堆疊（3D Die Stacking)在制裁和禁運之下的技術方向選擇15 2023 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.RESTRICTED需要的投資規模加強國

18、內可靠芯片廠商合作自主芯片能力投資有潛力的芯片設計公司自建芯片設計以及相關團隊建立自主芯片預案戰略的三種方式16 2023 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.RESTRICTED數字業務云，網基礎設施電子設備制造半導體芯片賦能投資通過產業鏈上下游協作建立國內開發生態圈17 2023 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.RESTRICTED 與IT系統供應鏈協作廠商研究與預測美國制裁已經發生的和未來可能帶來的影響。選擇國內自主可控相關系統與芯片廠商確認

19、現有產品狀況和市場實際應用經驗，建立合作關系。設置合理國產系統及芯片的性能要求和驗證目的，從非關鍵應用開始嘗試導入部分國產IT系統。加強軟件適配開發，確保軟件對不同系統的兼容性，穩定性和運營性能。建立或加強對國內基礎IT軟硬件廠商的投資，確保對廠商產品開發計劃的影響力。確定新產品開發計劃時，優先考慮國內供應鏈和成熟平臺，積極采用半導體創新技術。建立國產ITIT系統作為備用選擇的行動建議18 2023 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.RESTRICTEDMarket Trend:U.S.Restrictions Forc

20、e China ICT Industry to Seek Alternative Semiconductor SolutionsMarket Trends:Chinas New Secure and Trustable Initiative for the IT System Will Accelerate the Growth of Domestic Chip VendorsEmerging Tech Impact Radar:Semiconductor and Electronics TechnologiesForecast Analysis:Semiconductor Design TA

21、M,by Application and RegionMarket Trend:RISC-V Architecture Adoption Is Gaining as an Efficient Alternative to Arm and x86Emerging Technologies:Venture Capital Growth Insights for Chinas Semiconductor CompaniesEmerging Technologies:Monetizing Semiconductor Product Innovations From Chinas Market可供參考的

22、GartnerGartner報告 2023 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner,Inc.and its affiliates.This presentation,including all supporting materials,is proprietary to Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates and is for the sole internal use of the intended recipients.Because this presentation may contain information that is confidential,proprietary or otherwise legally protected,it may not be further copied,distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner,Inc.or its affiliates.Roger Sheng中國企業的CIOCIO們必須建立關鍵的芯片策略以應對禁運風險