能源轉型和運輸的全球趨勢.pdf

1、 _ 2024/SOM2/AD/021 Agenda Item:4.2 Global Trends in Energy Transition and Transport Purpose:Information Submitted by:BloombergNEF 39th Automotive Dialogue Arequipa,Peru 9-10 May 2024 Global Trends in Energy Transition&TransportGuillaume FouchTwitter:guillaumefoucheMay 20241About BNEF2BNEF coverageS

2、trategies for a cleaner,more competitive future3Global Trends in Energy Transition4Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Start years differ by sector but all sectors are present from 2020 onwards see Methodology for more detail.Most notably,nuclear figures start in 2015 and power grids in 2020.CCS refers to carb

3、on capture and storage.Global energy transition investment,by sector33 51 80 107 156 153 213 267 239 212 313 388 428 469 526 565 934 1,190 1,511 1,769 02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,800$billionPower gridsClean shippingClean industryElectrified heatElectrified transportHydrogenCCSEnergy storageNu

4、clearRenewable energy5Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Start years differ by sector,but all sectors are present by 2020.The step-change in 2020 is caused in part by the addition of power grids into the scope from that year onward.EMEA refers to Europe,the Middle East and Africa;APAC is Asia Pacific;AMER is

5、the Americas.Global energy transition investment,by region335180107156 1532132672392123133884284695265659341,1901,5111,76902004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,800$billionEMEAAPACAMER6Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Start-years differ by sector,but all sectors are present by 2020.The step-change in 2020 is ca

6、used in part by the addition of power grids into the scope from that year onward.Global energy transition investment,by economy/bloc335180107153 156212 2132392673133884284695265659341,1901,5111,76902004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000$billionRest of WorldBrazilIndiaJapanUKUSEU-27ChinaPeoples R

7、epublic of China7Source:BloombergNEF.Note:EU-27 bar also includes the EU member states shown.Rest of World is global investment excluding the EU and individual economies in the chart.A small amount of estimated spend for EU countries may be included in Rest of Word.CCS refers to carbon capture and s

8、torage.Top 10 economies for 2023 energy transition investment,plus the EU-27 and rest of the world277.3341.029.731.432.032.234.855.573.995.4303.1675.90100200300400500600700800Rest of WorldEU-27ItalyIndiaJapanSpainBrazilFranceUKGermanyUSChina$billionRenewable energyNuclearEnergy storageCCSHydrogenEle

9、ctrified transportElectrified heatClean industryClean shippingPower gridsTop 10 economiesPeoples Republic of China8Source:BloombergNEF,IEA.Note:ETI stands for energy transition investment.FF stands for fossil fuels.Historical volumes for FF investment were aggregated from IEA World Energy Investment

10、 2023(web).Investment includes upstream,midstream,and downstream sectors and unabated fossil power generation.Dollar values have been adjusted to nominal terms.Investment in demand for fossil fuels-like gas boilers-is not included.Investment comparison:Energy transition versus fossil-fuel supply 694

11、7909331,02302004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000ETIFFETIFFETIFFETIFF2020202120222023$billionEnergy demandEnergy supplyUnabated powerCoalGasOil9341,1901,5111,7697428481,0041,098Energy transitionFossil-fuel supply9Source:BloombergNEF,Bloomberg Intelligence,IEA.Note:ETI stands for energy transiti

12、on investment.EV stands for electric vehicles,ICE standsfor internal combustion engines.EV spending includes electric and fuel-cell vehicles.Dollar values have been adjusted to nominal terms.Energy supply investment comparison Energy demand:Passenger ICE and EV spending comparisonEnergy transition a

13、nd fossil-fuel investment comparison:supply and demand6947909331,0237428481,0041,09802004006008001,0001,2002020202120222023$billionETI supplyFossil Fuelsupply1252563985432,1942,2602,3272,34705001,0001,5002,0002,5002020202120222023$billionEVspendingICEspendingFossil-fuel supply10Source:BloombergNEF.N

14、et Zero Scenario Economic Transition Scenario051015202530354020122020202520302035204020452050GtCO2PowerEnergy industryOtherRailAviationShippingRoadCommercial b.Residential b.Other industryPetrochemicalsCementAluminumSteel2.6C1.77CEnergy and emissions pathwaysEnergy emissions and carbon budget11Sourc

15、e:BloombergNEF.Note:NZS=Net Zero Scenario.Future values are obtained from the New Energy Outlook 2022,except electrified transport,which is from the Electric Vehicle Outlook 2023 Net Zero Scenario.Comparison:2023 energy transition investment versus required annualized levels in NEO 2022 Net Zero Sce

16、nario02,0004,0006,0008,000202324-3031-4041-50$billion(2023)CCSClean industryElectrified heatElectrifiedtransportEnergy storageHydrogenNuclearPower gridsRenewableenergy1,7674,8436,5897,594+174%+36%+15%$billion(2023)2023 actual2024-30 annualizedMultiplierClean industry 4921x0.4Electrified heat 6350 x0

17、.8Renewable energy 6231,317x2.1Grids 310700 x2.3Energy storage3693x2.6Electrified transport6321,805X2.9Hydrogen 1062x6.0Nuclear33284x8.7CCS11510 x45.9Annual energy transition investment,2023 actual vs 2024-2030 required for NZS 12Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Excludes investment in fossil fuels supply,cl

18、ean shipping,commercial and fuel cell vehicles.The multiplier shows the multiplication factor required for the 2023 investment levels to match the average annual investment needs across 2024 to 2030 to align for net zero.China and US figures are not to scale.Comparison:2023 energy transition investm

19、ent versus required annualized levels in NEO 2022 Net Zero Scenario,by economy7414120232024-309521520232024-306751,62120232024-305513120232024-303031,05520232024-303220920232024-303129520232024-30UKGermanyPeoples Republic of ChinaFranceUSJapanIndiax1.9x2.3x2.4x2.4x3.5x6.5x9.4$billion(2023)Multiplier

20、13R and DEnvironment issues Charges and writedownsOil production Cash flow Corporate governance Targets led to words2870 x42400 x1RevenueCorporate governance Cash flow Oil production Charges and writedownsEnvironment issues RussiaRenewablesR and DDividendsRevenueRussiaRenewablesDividendsRevenueCash

21、flow Corporate governance Oil production Environment issues Charges and writedownsDividendsRenewablesRussiaR and DRevenueCash flow Corporate governance Environment issues Oil production Charges and writedownsRussiaGHG emissionsRenewablesDividendsEnvironment issues RevenueCash flow Corporate governan

22、ce Oil production RenewablesRussiaCovid-19Charges and writedownsGHG emissionsEnvironment issues RenewablesCash flow RevenueGHG emissionsCorporate governance Oil production DividendsCharges and writedownsCarbon neutralGHG 12345681079201920202021202220182023Source:BloombergNEF,Bloomberg terminal DS.No

23、te:R&D refers to research and development,GHG refers to greenhouse gas.4830 x33400 x32360 x12360 x11520 x11270 x11600 x11510 x8Mentions,relative to 2018Most-used terms in annual reports14Source:BloombergNEFLatin America new clean energy investment5.46.75.16.24.07.39.715.427.625.41.63.81.12.01.15.04.

24、63.61.72.12.21.70.76.24.04.62.71.42.01.21.62.62.31.01.413.815.310.017.813.020.118.522.634.030.82014201520162017201820192020202120222023$billionBrazilChileMexicoArgentinaColombiaOther15Global Trends in Advanced Transport16Source:BloombergNEF,Marklines,JATO Dynamic.Note:Includes battery-electric and p

25、lug-in hybrid vehicles.Excludes commercial vehicles and two-and-three wheelers.By region By drivetrain Passenger EV sales 1.12.02.23.26.510.513.816.72017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023e2024eMillionRest ofWorldJapanSouthKoreaNorthAmericaEuropeChina1.12.02.23.26.510.513.816.72017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20

26、22 2023e 2024eMillionPlug-inhybridBattery-electricPeoples Republic of ChinaRepublic of Korea17Source:BloombergNEF,China Automotive Information Net,MarkLines,EU Commission,MOTIE,EV-Volumes.Note:includes light-,medium-and heavy-duty commercial vehicles.Global sales of electric commercial vehicles 0.00

27、.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.01.12015201620172018201920202021202220232024eMillion vehicles18Source:BloombergNEF.All prices in real 2023 dollars.Near-term lithium-ion battery cell and pack prices 535470300251181152128119115128107104245222148947759554135333229780692448345258211183160150161139 133201320

28、142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Real 2023$/kWhPackCellObserved pricesNear-term outlook19Source:BloombergNEFLatin America EV sales and share of new passenger vehicles,by economy2.35.913.218.81.82.44.610.22.74.43.9 6.7 11.3 24.9 40.7 0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%0102030405020182019202020212022Sha

29、re of salesSales(thousands)BrazilMexicoColombiaCosta RicaChileRest of LatAmEV share20Source:BloombergNEF.Note:BEVs=battery-electric vehicles;PHEVs=plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.Annual EV sales and share of new passenger vehicles in Latin America,by type2.63.97.916.619.72.83.48.320.91.32.33.96.711

30、.324.940.70.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%010203040502016201720182019202020212022Share of salesSales(thousand)PHEVBEVEV share22Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Charts are only illustrative.Simplified passenger EV outlook methodology(1/2)23Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Charts are only illustrative.Simplified passenger EV

31、 outlook methodology(2/2)24Source:BloombergNEF.Base-case battery pack price scenario02004006008001,0001,2001,400201020152020202520302035Real 2022$/kWhObserved pricesNear-term outlookLong-term outlook(17%learning rate)2020:$150/kWh 2025:$124/kWh 2030:$77/kWh 25Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Shaded range re

32、presents battery pack prices that correspond to price parity for different regions and segments for the base case.Implications for battery pack price parity point 02004006008001,0001,2001,400201020152020202520302035Real 2022$/kWhObserved pricesNear-term outlookLong-term outlook(17%learningrate)2025(

33、$124/kWh):Price parity for BEVs in China and large BEVs and SUVs in Europe2031($73/kWh):Price parity for medium BEVs and SUVs in India26Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Ford,Hyundai,Stellantis and VW ICE phase-out target is for Europe only.On November 9,2021,Ford signed the COP26 declaration on accelerating

34、 the transition to 100%zero-emission cars and vans,which called for working toward an ICE phase-out globally by 2040 and in leading markets by 2035.Excludes interim targets.Net-zero target scope varies by company,as some only cover Scope 1 and 2 emissions.For more details,see BloombergNEFs Net-Zero

35、Assessment Tool(web).Automakers drivetrain development targets27Source:BloombergNEF.Note:EV share of sales in these charts includes plug-in hybrids.Size of the bubble represents the size of the overall passenger vehicles market in 2022;the color of a bubble represents vehicle segments included in th

36、e target.*Italys target was set for 2035 for passenger cars and 2040 for light commercial vehicles(LCVs).Please see the Appendix B of the report on why Italys target is uncertain.Main Economies targets to phase out internal combustion vehicle sales01234561Passenger cars onlyPassenger cars and LCVPas

37、senger cars and busesPassenger cars,commercial vehicles and busesSloveniaIsraelSingaporeCosta RicaAustriaChileGreeceVietnam0%5%10%15%20%25%30%20202030204020502060EV share of sales(2022)ICE phase-out target yearUKFranceSpainCanadaItaly*Rest of EU0%5%10%15%20%25%30%20202030204020502060EV share of sale

38、s(2022)ICE phase-out target yearNorwayNetherlandsDenmarkIceland0%20%40%60%80%100%20202030204020502060EV share of sales(2022)ICE phase-out target yearNordics+Small car marketsMajor car markets28Source:Deloitte,BloombergNEF.Note:Others include lack of battery recycling and use of renewable power,for e

39、xample.Consumers InsightsConsumers main concerns over BEVs by market,2022Consumers expected BEV driving range by market,20230%20%40%60%80%100%USGermanyJapanS.KoreaChinaIndiaSE AsiaRangeUpfront costCharge timeCharge availabilitySafetyModel availabilityOthers0%20%40%60%80%100%USGermanyJapanS.KoreaChin

40、aIndiaSE AsiaLess than 200km200-299km300-399km400-499km500-599km600km or morePeoples Republic of China29Source:BloombergNEF,Marklines,company announcements.Note:Uses EPA standard range.Data from BEVs available globally.Includes all available trims and model variations with ranges of more than 400km.

41、Number of BEV models available with ranges of more than 400kmGlobalNorth America9 28 115 212 2018201920212022No.of BEV trims 8 15 34 56 2018201920212022No.of BEV trims30Source:BloombergNEF,Marklines,company announcements.Note:Uses EPA standard range.Data from BEVs available globally.Includes all ava

42、ilable trims and model variations with ranges of more than 400km.Number of BEV models available with range over 400kmEuropePeoples Republic of China6 13 35 61 2018201920212022No.of BEV trims6 13 77 141 2018201920212022No.of BEV trims31Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Europe includes the EU,the UK and Europe

43、an Free Trade Association(EFTA)countries.EV includes battery electric EVs and plug-in hybrid EVs.Global near-term passenger EV sales and share of new passenger vehicle sales by market0.71.12.02.23.26.510.514.117.522.426.6051015202530201620212026MillionChinaEuropeUSJapanCanadaS.KoreaSoutheast AsiaAus

44、traliaIndiaRest of WorldGlobal0%10%20%30%40%50%60%201620212026Peoples Republic of ChinaRepublic of Korea32Source:BloombergNEF.Global passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain Economic Transition Scenario02040608010012020222025203020352040Million Internal combustionHybridPlug-in hybridBattery electric33S

45、ource:BloombergNEFGlobal passenger vehicle fleet by drivetrain Economic Transition Scenario Global passenger vehicle share of fleet by drivetrain Economic Transition ScenarioEVO 2023 Forecast00.20.40.60.811.21.41.620202025203020352040BillionBattery electricPlug-in hybridHybridInternalcombustion0%10%

46、20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20202025203020352040BatteryelectricPlug-inhybridHybridInternalcombustion34Source:BloombergNEF.Note:EV includes battery electric(BEV)and plug-in hybrid(PHEV)vehicles.ICE includes traditional hybrids.Passenger vehicle fleet outlook by drivetrain Economic Transition Scenario

47、 Passenger vehicle fleet outlook by drivetrain Net Zero Scenario EVO 2023 Forecast0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.62020202520302035204020452050BillionEVsICEs0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.62020202520302035204020452050BillionEVsICEs35Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Estimates are cumulative spending starting in 2023.Do

48、llars are in real 2022.Cumulative global EV market opportunity by region Economic Transition Scenario31%21%20%3%3%22%$9.7 trillion China US Europe India Japan Other35%22%21%3%3%16%$30.1 trillion31%21%20%3%3%22%$56.7 trillion43%24%21%2%1%9%$8.8 trillion203020402050Peoples Republic of China36Source:Bl

49、oombergNEF.Note:ETS stands for Economic Transition Scenario and NZS stands for Net Zero Scenario.LCVs,MCVs and HCVs are light-,medium-and heavy-duty commercial vehicles.Zero-emission includes battery-electric,plug-in hybrid electric and fuel cell vehicles,depending on the vehicle segment.Some values

50、 rounded.Zero-emission vehicle sales share outlooks ETS versus NZS0%20%40%60%80%100%20203040500%20%40%60%80%100%2020304050CarsLCVs0%20%40%60%80%100%20203040500%20%40%60%80%100%2020304050Almost on trackPositive trajectoryNot on trackETSNZSTwo/three-wheelersBusesCars and LCVsMCVs and HCVs37Source:Bloo

51、mbergNEF.Note:ETS stands for Economic Transition Scenario and NZS stands for Net Zero Scenario.LCVs,MCVs and HCVs are light-,medium-and heavy-duty commercial vehicles.Zero-emission includes battery-electric only for cars and two/three-wheelers and also fuel cell vehicles for buses,LCVs,MCVs and HCVs

52、.All values global.Zero-emission vehicle fleet share outlooks ETS versus NZS0%20%40%60%80%100%20203040500%20%40%60%80%100%2020304050CarsLCVs0%20%40%60%80%100%20203040500%20%40%60%80%100%2020304050Almost on trackPositive trajectoryNot on trackETSNZSTwo/three-wheelersBusesCars and LCVsMCVs and HCVs38S

53、ource:BloombergNEF.Note:ETS is the“Economic Transition Scenario”and NZS is the“Net Zero Scenario”.Battery factory requirements include investment needed to meet EV demand as well as stationary energy storage.Annual battery factory investment by scenario58.9 23.5 27.8 44.4 57.2 02040608010020222023-3

54、02031-402023-302031-40ActualETS-yearlyNZS-yearly$billionSeparatorsElectrolytesCathodesAnodesBattery cells39Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Lithium is expressed in million metric tons lithium carbonate equivalent(LCE).Demand occurs at the mine mouth,one year before battery demand.Multiples between 2022 and

55、2050 are based on annual demand in the given year.Annual metals demand from lithium-ion batteries under the Net Zero Scenario010203040506020202025203020352040204520502022 vs 2050Million metric tonsCobaltManganesePhosphorusIronGraphiteNickelLithiumAluminumCopper3x29x22x26x5x9x22x12x16x40Source:Bloomb

56、ergNEF.Note:Inludes biofuels.Global oil demand Economic Transition Scenario020406080100120200020102020203020402050Million barrels per day Other sectors Other transport Road transportPeak demand:2027:Road transport2027:Total transport2029:Global oil41Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Includes biofuels.Oil dem

57、and from road transport by scenario01020304050602021203020402050Million barrels per day Economic TransitionScenario Net Zero Scenario42Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Uses general electricity demand projections from BloombergNEFs New Energy Outlook 2022.This is the final energy consumption and excludes any

58、 losses in transmission.EV electricity demand includes demand from passenger EVs,commercial EVs,e-buses and electric two-and three-wheelers.Percentages refer to percentage of EV electricity demand of total in 2050.Net Zero Scenario includes additional demand from electrification of heating,industry,

59、electrolyzer use for hydrogen production.Electricity demand outlook for selected regions by scenario(1/2)010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00020202050TWh20202050ETSNZS14%12%03,0006,0009,00012,00015,00018,00020202050TWh20202050ETSNZS13%10%03,0006,0009,00020202050TWh20202050ETSNZS20%14%GlobalPeo

60、ples Republic of ChinaUSGeneral demandElectric vehicle electricity demand43Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Uses general electricity demand projections from BloombergNEFs New Energy Outlook 2022.This is the final energy consumption and excludes any losses in transmission.EV electricity demand includes deman

61、d from passenger EVs,commercial EVs,e-buses and electric two-and three-wheelers.Percentages refer to percentage of EV electricity demand of total in 2050.Net Zero Scenario includes additional demand from electrification of heating,industry,electrolyzer use for hydrogen production.Electricity demand

62、outlook for selected regions by scenario(2/2)EUGermanyIndia02,0004,0006,0008,00020202050TWh20202050ETSNZS24%18%05001,0001,50020202050TWh20202050ETSNZS27%13%02,0004,0006,0008,00020202050TWh20202050ETSNZS9%10%General demandElectric vehicle electricity demand44Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Excludes two-and-

63、three wheelers.Investment includes hardware,installation and maintenance costs.ETS is Economic Transition Scenario.NZS is Net Zero Scenario.TWh=terawatt-hour;kW=kilowatt.Global electric vehicle demand for electricity,charging infrastructure and investment121 291 318 871 1,041 2,997 4,455 05001,0001,

64、5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000ETS NZS ETS NZS ETS NZS2022202520302040TWh14 44 50 126 152 335 492 050100150200250300350400450500ETS NZS ETS NZS ETS NZS2022202520302040Million connectors85 213 237 480 570 1,220 1,677 03006009001,2001,5001,800ETS NZS ETS NZS ETS NZS2022202520302040$billion3kW7-

65、22kW50kW150kW350kW1000kWElectricity demandCharging networkCumulative investment45Source:BloombergNEF.Share of total costs to deploy charging infrastructure including grid support costs0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2022203020402050Charging infrastructureGrid infrastructure support46Source:Bloomber

66、gNEF,Avicenne.Note:The demand outlook for consumer electronics comes from Avicenne.Lithium-ion battery demand outlook020040060080020152016201720182019202020212022GWh/yearE-busesConsumer electronicsElectric two/three-wheelersStationary storageCommercial EVsPassenger EV47Source:BloombergNEF,Environmen

67、tal Protection Agency(EPA),International Council on Clean Transport(ICCT),FEV,Oak Ridge National Laboratory(ORNL),Idaho National Laboratory(IDL).Note:Pre-tax estimate,no subsidies included.Upfront price parity based on assumption of vehicles with standard range and battery pack size,depending on the

68、 region.Europe medium BEV pre-tax price breakdown,ICE pre-tax price and share of battery costs05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000202220232024202520262027202820292030BatteryPowertrainVehicleICE48Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Uses EPA-equivalent ranges.Symbols correspond to different versions of the

69、 same model;for example,it includes all versions of the Teslas Model 3 as well as VWs ID.3.RNM=Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi.Selected models only.BEV model range for selected car manufacturers01002003004005006007008002010201220142016201820202022Range in kilometersBMWHyundai-KiaRNMTeslaVW GroupBYDStellan

70、tismodel year49Source:BloombergNEF.Note:NMC=nickel manganese cobalt oxide;NCA=nickel cobalt aluminum oxide;LFP=lithium iron phosphate;LMO=lithium manganese oxide;Na-ion=sodium ion;Wh/kg=watt-hour per kilogram.Historical and estimated changes to battery-pack energy density0501001502002503003502010201

71、52020202520302035Wh/kgNMCNCALFPLMONa-ionAverage Trend95%Confidence limits50Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Na-ion=sodium ion;LMFP=lithium manganese iron phosphate;LFP=lithium iron phosphate;LNMO=lithium nickel manganese oxide;LMO=lithium manganese oxide;LNO=lithium nickel oxide;NCA=nickel cobalt aluminum o

72、xide;NMCA=nickel manganese cobalt aluminum oxide;LMR=lithium-and manganese-rich;NMC=nickel manganese cobalt oxide.Evolution of cathode chemistry across all passenger electric vehicle segments5%3%38%12%6%10%17%14%11%7%3%3%8%11%12%12%12%11%3%4%4%5%5%4%5%6%7%8%6%7%7%8%9%9%16%11%7%3%4%4%3%4%5%5%6%3%4%5%

73、5%5%4%5%6%6%7%27%42%34%33%30%31%29%29%7%11%14%15%16%17%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20212023202520272029203120332035Na-ionLMFPLFPLNMOLMOeLNONCA95NCA92NCA90NCA85NMCALMR-NMCNMC(96Ni)NMC(955)NMC(721)NMC(811)NMC(622)NMC(532)NMC(111)51Source:BloombergNEF.Note:LMFP=lithium manganese iron phosphate;LFP

74、=lithium iron phosphate;LNMO=lithium nickel manganese oxide;LMO=lithium manganese oxide;LNO=lithium nickel oxide;NCA=nickel cobalt aluminum oxide;NMCA=nickel manganese cobalt aluminum oxide;LMR=lithium-and manganese-rich;NMC=nickel manganese cobalt oxide.Evolution of cathode chemistry across all com

75、mercial electric vehicle segments32%10%12%8%6%3%36%23%17%12%9%3%9%11%12%12%14%15%3%5%11%12%14%7%8%8%8%8%6%6%4%3%3%4%6%7%7%8%8%6%7%8%9%10%10%10%11%13%17%42%37%35%31%30%28%27%4%5%5%6%6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20212023202520272029203120332035LMFPLFPLNMOLMOeLNONCA95NCA92NCA90NCA85NMCALMR-NMCNMC

76、(955)NMC(721)NMC(811)NMC(622)NMC(532)NMC(111)52Source:BloombergNEF.Note:LMFP=lithium manganese iron phosphate;LFP=lithium iron phosphate;LNMO=lithium nickel manganese oxide;NMC=nickel manganese cobalt oxide.Evolution of cathode chemistry for e-buses8%4%4%5%4%5%4%4%3%4%6%7%7%5%4%5%11%15%85%87%89%81%7

77、6%72%66%62%8%12%14%16%18%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20212023202520272029203120332035LMFPLFPLNMONMC(811)NMC(622)NMC(532)53Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Na-ion=sodium-ion;LMFP=lithium manganese iron phosphate;LFP=lithium iron phosphate;LNMO=lithium nickel manganese oxide;LMO=lithium manganese oxide;N

78、CA=nickel cobalt aluminum oxide;NMCA=nickel manganese cobalt aluminum oxide;NMC=nickel manganese cobalt oxide.Evolution of cathode chemistry for two-and three-wheeled vehicles32%22%10%5%3%14%20%21%15%11%7%5%5%9%12%14%13%12%24%20%16%12%9%6%4%18%16%9%7%6%5%4%3%3%5%7%9%10%23%26%26%20%20%19%18%15%3%7%11

79、%15%19%23%10%15%20%24%27%30%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20212023202520272029203120332035Na-ionLMFPLFPLNMOLMONCA90NMCANMC(811)NMC(111)54Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Solid-state assumes NMC 811 cathode.Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Solid-state assumes NMC 811 cathode.Status of battery performance metrics

80、in 2022Outlook for battery performance metrics in 2035Battery performance metricsLFPNMCSodium-ionSolid-stateEnergy density Cycle life CostcompetitivenessCharge rateSafetyLFPNMCSodium-ionSolid-stateEnergy density Cycle lifeCostcompetitivenessCharge rateSafety55BloombergNEFPublic Resources56Public Con

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