2020年全球離岸風能趨勢及日本風力能源貢獻報告（英文版）（12頁）（12頁）.pdf

1、Global offshore wind growth and Japan outlook REVision 2020 Sebastian Hald Buhl 4thMarch 2020 Our vision Lets create a world that runs entirely on green energy rsted Introduction 3 rsted Offshore: Global overview 30 years of experience of developing, building and operating offshore wind farms The wo

2、rlds first Vindeby, 1991 5 MW Firsts outside Europe Formosa 1 Wind Farm, 2019 128 MW (1stin Taiwan) Block Island Wind Farm, 2016 30 MW (1stin USA) The worlds largest Walney Extension, 2018 659 MW The global leader in offshore wind 5,600 MW in operation 4,300 MW under construction 1,150+ turbines spi

3、nning 25 offshore wind farms in operation 2,500 dedicated employees 4 Global Industry Overview Offshore wind is experiencing explosive global growth 5 Global offshore wind installed capacity GW 77.2 15.4 20152005 11.0 13.2 42.4 2030 24.4 20202025 42.6 0.7 12.1 37.6 91.4 176.7 84.1 1 GW 5 GW 11 GW 17

4、 GW AmericasAsia PacificEurope 33% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), 1H 2019 offshore wind market outlook 25% 19% 14% CAGR # GW addition/year % 6 1. Excludes test and demonstration projects. 2. COD may occur earlier, but these are latest allowed commissioning years The move towards larger

5、 projects is a global trend 160 659 714 600 900 752 800 740 900 Borssele 1&2 COD by 20212 Walney Ext. COD 2018 Borssele 3&4 COD by 20222 Horns Rev 1Hornsea 1 COD 2020 East Anglia 1 COD 2020 Kriegers Flak COD 2021* Greater Changhua 1&2 COD 2021 Vineyard Wind COD 2021 Hornsea 2 COD 2022 1,386 He Dreih

6、t COD by 20252 1,200 Capacity of select offshore wind farms under construction MW Worlds largest offshore wind farm today Worlds largest offshore wind farm in 2002 Larger projects allow for increased optimization and unlocks economies of scale benefits 7 200 MW400MW800 MW -20% -10% Larger projects c

7、reate significant benefits. Indexed LCOE reduction for offshore wind projects 100100100 SubstationsTurbineFoundationCables 89 100 90 90 92 600MW 900MW 100 67 .often due to large fixed up front costs Indexed cost per MW for a 600MW and 900MW project Mobilization & installation cost Project developmen

8、t expenditure 8 Innovative solutions continue to push the boundaries of our industry Technological 15%-20% cost reduction on foundations with switch from grouted to bolted connections 40% CAPEX reduction on transmission system by increasing capacity in cables & reducing no. of substations Commercial

9、 CPPAs help mitigate or eliminate merchant risk reducing risk and costs rsted & Northumbrian Power entered 10-year PPA for 100 GWh/year in 2019 CPPAs like this point us to the future of subsidy free offshore wind Operations Move from manual blade inspections to use of drones cut WTG outage time from

10、 1 day to 18 minutes Deploying battery storage systems with our wind farms (e.g. Burbo Bank) to support production scheduling & provide grid services 9rsted Offshore, October 2019 Offshore wind is already cost competitive in Europe Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2H 2018 LCOE Update, current LC

11、OE. 2012 167 Offshore - 63% 61 Offshore 2018 52 Onshore 69 Solar PV 83 Natural gas 93 Coal 169 Nuclear Levelized cost of electricity in Northwest Europe EUR2018/MWh 10 Japan could become a world leading offshore wind market Japan needs offshore wind 90% of energy demand is imported Lack of space ons

12、hore Strong political momentum RES target of 24%, including 10 GW wind power by 2030 Significant potential Japans “good-wind” sites hold 90 GW of fixed bottom offshore wind potential 2020 will see first offshore wind auction Plans to auction off 1.0-1.5 GW per year Competition & visibility will lowe

13、r costs 11 The window of opportunity is open and offshore wind is gaining momentum in Japan The following are key to Japan fulfilling its offshore wind potential Flexible frameworks Ability to adapt & optimize as well as industry led localization efforts will drive down costs Large scale wind farms

14、Offshore wind costs fell by 63% from 2012- 2019 in large part due to greater scale Fixed targets Visibility & pipeline are needed to build supply chain & attract investments Mix of international experience & local expertise Reap the benefits of 30 years experience while adapting to local circumstances