COVID-19對全球經濟的影響最新報告（2020年9月更新）-美國國會研究處（英文版）（117頁）.pdf

1、 Global Economic Effects of COVID-19 Updated September 4, 2020 Congressional Research Service https:/crsreports.congress.gov R46270 Congressional Research Service SUMMARY Global Economic Effects of COVID-19 Since the COVID-19 outbreak was first diagnosed, it has spread to over 200 countries and all

2、U.S. states. The pandemic is negatively affecting global economic growth beyond anything experienced in nearly a century. Estimates so far indicate the virus could trim global economic growth by 3.0% to 6.0% in 2020, with a partial recovery in 2021, assuming there is not a second wave of infections.

3、 The economic fallout from the pandemic raises the risks of a global economic recession with levels of unemployment not experienced since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The human costs in terms of lives lost will permanently affect global economic growth in addition to the cost of rising levels

4、of poverty, lives upended, careers derailed, and increased social unrest. Global trade could also fall by 18%, depending on the depth and extent of the global economic downturn, exacting an especially heavy economic toll on trade-dependent developing and emerging economies. The full impact will not

5、be known until the effects of the pandemic peak. This report provides an overview of the global economic costs to date and the response by governments and international institutions to address these effects. R46270 September 4, 2020 James K. Jackson, Coordinator Specialist in International Trade and

6、 Finance Martin A. Weiss Specialist in International Trade and Finance Andres B. Schwarzenberg Analyst in International Trade and Finance Rebecca M. Nelson Specialist in International Trade and Finance Global Economic Effects of COVID-19 Congressional Research Service Contents Overview . 1 Economic

7、Policy Responses . 6 Economic Forecasts . 11 Global Growth . 11 The OECD Forecast . 13 The IMF Forecast . 18 The World Bank Forecast . 20 Global Trade . 21 Economic Policy Challenges . 24 Major Economic Developments . 26 Financial Markets . 26 International Role of the Dollar . 28 March 2020 . 31 Ap

8、ril 2020 . 37 May 2020 . 41 June 2020 . 42 July 2020 . 44 August 2020 . 45 September 2020 . 45 Policy Responses . 46 The United States . 47 Monetary Policy . 51 Fiscal Policy . 53 Europe . 60 The United Kingdom . 68 Japan . 70 China . 71 Multilateral Response . 72 International Monetary Fund . 72 Wo

9、rld Bank and Regional Development Banks . 73 International Economic Cooperation . 74 Estimated Effects on Developed and Major Economies . 75 Emerging Markets . 76 International Economic Cooperation . 77 Looming Debt Crises and Debt Relief Efforts . 79 Other Affected Sectors . 80 Conclusions . 82 Fig

10、ures Figure 1. Initial U.S. Weekly Claims for Unemployment Insurance, 2020 . 3 Figure 2. IMF Projected Government Fiscal Deficits Relative to GDP . 9 Figure 3. Unemployment Rates Among Major OECD Countries . 14 Global Economic Effects of COVID-19 Congressional Research Service Figure 4. Major Econom

11、ic Forecasts . 15 Figure 5. IMF Forecast, Gross Domestic Product, Percentage Change . 20 Figure 6. WTO Estimates of Quarterly Global Exports and Imports, Volumes and Values . 22 Figure 7. Dow Jones Industrial Average . 28 Figure 8. U.S. Dollar Trade-Weighted Broad Index, Goods and Services . 29 Figu

12、re 9. International Role of the Dollar . 30 Figure 10. Brent Crude Oil Price per Barrel of Dollars . 35 Figure 11. U.S. GDP, Percentage Change From Preceding Quarter . 48 Figure 12. U.S. Exports and Imports of Goods and Services 2020 . 48 Figure 13. Price and Quantity Indexes, U.S. Exports and Impor

13、ts . 49 Figure 14. Change in U.S. Employment by Major Industrial Sector . 50 Figure 15. U.S. Personal Income, Consumption, and Saving . 57 Figure 16. UK Month Over Month Quarterly Percentage Change in GDP . 70 Figure 17. Capital Flows to Emerging Markets in Global Shocks . 76 Figure 18. Depreciation

14、 Against the Dollar Since January 1, 2020 . 77 Tables Table 1. Seasonally Adjusted Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims . 3 Table 2. Elements of Announced Fiscal Measures to Address COVID-19 . 6 Table 3. Selected Central Bank and Prudential Measures to Address COVID-19 . 10 Table 4. Major Economic F

15、orecasts, Differing Assessments . 13 Table 5. OECD, IMF and World Bank Economic Forecasts . 15 Table 6. WTO April Forecast: Merchandise Trade Volume and Real GDP 2018-2021 . 23 Table 7. Dow Jones Industrial Average Market Changes by Month . 27 Table 8. Economic Projections of Federal Reserve, June 2

16、020 . 58 Table 9. European Commission Economic Forecast . 61 Table 10. EU Real GDP Growth Rates, Second Quarter 2020 . 62 Appendixes Appendix. Table A-1. Select Measures Implemented and Announced by Major Economies in Response to COVID-19 . 84 Contacts Author Information . 112 Global Economic Effect

17、s of COVID-19 Congressional Research Service 1 Overview The World Health Organization (WHO) first declared COVID-19 a world health emergency in January 2020. Since then, the emergency has evolved into a global public health and economic crisis that has affected the $90 trillion global economy beyond

18、 anything experienced in nearly a century. Governments are attempting to balance often-competing policy objectives between addressing the public health crisis and economic considerations that include, but are not limited to these: Confronting ballooning budget deficits weighed against increasing spe

19、nding to support unemployed workers and social safety nets. Providing financial support for national health systems that are under pressure to develop vaccines while also funding efforts to care for and safeguard citizens. Implementing monetary and fiscal policies that support credit markets and sus

20、tain economic activity, while also assisting businesses under financial distress. Implementing fiscal policies to stimulate economic activity, while consumers in developed economies sharply increase their savings as households face limited spending opportunities, or a form of involuntary saving, and

21、 concerns over their jobs, incomes, and the course of their economies, or precautionary saving. Intervention by central banks and monetary authorities generally in sovereign debt and corporate bond markets to stabilize markets and insure liquidity are raising concerns among some analysts that this a

22、ctivity is compromising the ability of the markets to perform their traditional functions of pricing risk and allocating capital. Fiscal and monetary policies that have been adopted to date to address the immediate impact of the health crisis compared with the mix of such policies between assisting

23、households, firms, or state and local governments that may be needed going forward should the health and economic crises persist. Policymakers and financial and commodity market participants generally have been hopeful of a global economic recovery starting in the third quarter of 2020, assuming the

24、re is not a second wave of infections. Some forecasts, however, raise the prospects that the pandemic could negatively affect global economic growth more extensively and for a longer period of time with a slow, drawn-out recovery. Without a quick resolution of the health crisis, the economic crisis

25、may persist longer than most forecasters have assumed and require policymakers to weigh the most effective mix of additional fiscal and monetary policies that may be required without the benefit of a relevant precedent to follow. Additional measures may have to balance the competing requirements of

26、households, firms, and state and local governments. Various U.S. States reversed course in late June to impose or reimpose social distancing guidelines and close down businesses that had begun opening as a result of a rise in new confirmed cases of COVID-19, raising the prospect of a delayed recover

27、y. In its July 29 policy statement and subsequent press conference, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) indicated that the rise in COVID-19 cases in the United States since mid- June was weighing down economic growth and that, “The path of the economy will depend significantly on the cours

28、e of the virus. The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term.” Global Economic Effects of COVID-19 Congressional Research Service 2 Differences in policy

29、 approaches between countries are threatening to inflict longer-term damage to the global economy by impairing international political, trade, and economic relations, particularly between countries that promote nationalism and those that argue for a coordinated international response to the pandemic

30、. Policy differences are also straining relations between developed and developing economies and between northern and southern members of the Eurozone, challenging alliances and conventional concepts of national security, and raising questions about the future of global leadership. In some countries, the pandemic has elevated the importance of public health as a national security issue and as a national economic priority on a par with traditional national security concerns such as terrorism, cyberattacks, and proliferation of we