普華永道：抓住機遇——2017夏季達沃斯論壇報告（28頁）.pdf

1、Sizing the prize Whats the real value of AI for your business and how can you capitalise? +26% +14% Artificial intelligence (AI) is a source of both huge excitement and apprehension. What are the real opportunities and threats for your business? Drawing on a detailed analysis of the business impact

2、of AI, we at PwC identify the most valuable commercial opening in your market and how to take advantage of them. According to PwC research carried out for this report, global GDP could be up to 14% higher in 2030 as a result of AI the equivalent of an additional $15.7 trillion making it the biggest

3、commercial opportunity in todays fast changing economy The greatest gains from AI are likely to be in China (boost of up to 26% GDP in 2030) and North America (potential 14% boost). The biggest sector gains will be in retail, financial services and healthcare as AI increases productivity, product qu

4、ality and consumption. Human in the loop Hardwired /specific systems Adaptive systems In our broad definition, AI is a collective termfor computer systems that can sense their environment, think, learn, and take action in response to what theyre sensing and their objectives. Forms of AI in use today

5、 include, among others, digital assistants, chatbots and machine learning. AI works in four ways: Automated intelligence: Automation of manual/cognitive and routine/non- routinetasks. Assisted intelligence: Helping people to perform tasks faster and better. Augmented intelligence: Helping people to

6、make better decisions. Autonomous intelligence: Automating decision making processes without human intervention. As humans and machines collaborate more closely, and AI innovations come out of the research lab and into the mainstream, the transformational possibilities are staggering. Defining AI As

7、sisted Intelligence AI systems that assist humans in making decisions or taking actions. Hard-wired systems that do not learn from their interactions. Augmented Intelligence AI systems that augment human decision making and continuously learn from their interactions with humans and the environment.

8、Automation Automation of manual and cognitive tasks that are either routine or non- routine. This does not involve new ways of doing things automates existing tasks. No human in the loop Autonomous Intelligence AI systems that can adapt to different situations and can act autonomously without human

9、assistance. For a full glossary of AI techniques and their applications, please see page 26. 2Sizing the prize Contents Introduction 4 Big prize, big impact 6 AI Impact Index 12 Realising the potential 22 Conclusion 24 3Whats the real value of AI for your business and how can you capitalise? Busines

10、s leaders are asking: What impact will AI have on my organisation, and is our business model threatened by AI disruption? And as these leaders look to capitalise on AI opportunities, theyre asking: Where should we target investment, and what kind of capabilities would enable us to perform better? Cu

11、tting acrossall these considerations is how to build AI in the responsible and transparent way needed to maintain the confidence of customers and widerstakeholders. These are the strategic questions well be addressing in a series of reports designed to help enterprises create a clear and compelling

12、business case for AI investment and development. While theres been a lot of research on the impact of automation, its only part of the story. In this new series of PwC reports, we want to highlight how AI can enhance and augment what enterprises can do, the value potential of which is as large, if n

13、ot larger, than automation. Theres a lot of expectation surrounding artificial intelligence (AI). Theres also a significant amount of wariness. Introduction: Getting down to what really counts 4Sizing the prize The analysis carried out for this report gauges the economic potential for AI between now

14、 and 2030, including for regional economies and eightcommercial sectors worldwide. Through our AI Impact Index, we also look at how improvements to personalisation/customisation, quality and functionality could boost value, choice and demand across nearly 300 use cases of AI, along with how quickly

15、transformation and disruption are likely to take hold. Other key elements of the research include in-depth sector- by-sector analyses. In this opening report, we outline the regional economies that are set to gain the most and the three business areas with greatest AI potential in each of eight sect

16、ors. Future reports will focus on specific sectors, along with functional areas such as marketing, finance and talent management. Well also be setting out the detailed economic projections and, in partnership with Forbes magazine, publishing interviews with some of the business leaders at the forefr

17、ont of AI. Game changer What comes through strongly from all the analysis weve carried out for this report is just how big a game changer AI is likely to be, and how much value potential is up for grabs. AI could contribute up to $15.7 trillion1 to the global economy in 2030, more than the current o

18、utput of China and India combined. Of this, $6.6 trillion is likely to come from increased productivity and $9.1 trillion is likely to come from consumption- side effects. While some markets, sectors and individual businesses are more advanced than others, AI is still at a very early stage of develo

19、pment overall. From a macroeconomic point of view, there are therefore opportunities for emerging markets to leapfrog more developed counterparts. And within your business sector, one of todays start-ups or a business that hasnt even been founded yet could be the market leader in ten years time. $15

20、.7 trillion 1 $ denotes US dollars throughout, estimated values are expressed in real terms at 2016 prices (i.e. excluding the impact of general price inflation when looking ahead to 2030). 5Whats the real value of AI for your business and how can you capitalise? How much is at stake and why should

21、youtake action? From the personal assistants in our mobile phones, to the profiling, customisation, and cyberprotection that lie behind more and more ofour commercial interactions, AI touches almostevery aspect of our lives. And its only justgetting started. Big prize, big impact: Why AI matters AI

22、touches almost every aspect of our lives. And its only just getting started. According to our analysis, global GDP will be up to 14% higher in 2030 as a result of the accelerating development and take-up of AI the equivalent of an additional $15.7 trillion. The economic impact of AI will be driven b

23、y: 1. Productivity gains from businesses automating processes (including use of robots and autonomous vehicles). 2. Productivity gains from businesses augmenting their existing labour force with AItechnologies (assisted and augmented intelligence). 3. Increased consumer demand resulting from the ava

24、ilability of personalised and/or higher-quality AI-enhanced products andservices. 6Sizing the prize As new technologies are gradually adopted and consumers respond to improved products with increased demand, the share of impact from product innovation increases over time. Labour productivity improve

25、ments are expected to account for over 55% of all GDP gains from AI over the period 2017 2030. 58% of all GDP gains in 2030 will come from consumption side impacts. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18000 20172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030 Global GDP impact by efect of AI (trillion) Labour

26、 ProductivityPersonalisationTime SavedQuality $ trillion How we gauged the impact and potentialof AI To estimate the impact and potential of AI, our team conducted an ambitious, dual-phased top-down and bottom-up analysis. In addition to drawing on input from our extensive network of clients, and se

27、ctor and functional advisors within PwC, weve been working with our partners at Forbes and Fraunhofer, a global leader in emerging technology research and development. Together, we set out to identify the most compelling examples of potential AI applications across each sectors value chain, and desi

28、gned a framework to assess the degree and pace of impact of each. In total, we identified and rated nearly 300 use cases, which are captured in our AI Impact Index. Our Econometrics unit then used this bottom-up input as part of their top-down analysis assessing AIs impact on, and the interactions b

29、etween, key elements of the economy including labour, productivity, business and government. The models were informed by global economic datasets, extensive academic literature, and existing PwC work on automation. The analysis looked at the total economic impact of AI, accounting for increased prod

30、uctivity (which may involve the displacement of some existing jobs), the creation of new jobs, new products, and other effects. Well be publishing an extended technical read out of these results later in the year. For a more detailed methodology see page 27. Over the past decade, almost all aspects

31、of how we work and how we live from retail to manufacturing to healthcare have become increasingly digitised. The internet and mobile technologies drove the first wave of digital, known as the Internet of People. However, analysis carried out by PwCs AI specialists anticipates that the data generate

32、d from the Internet of Things (IoT) will outstrip the data generated by the Internet of People many times over. This increased data is already resulting in standardisation, which naturally leads to automation, and the personalisation of products and services, which is setting off the next wave of di

33、gital. AI will exploit the digital data from people and things to automate and assist in what we do today, as well as find new ways of doing things that weve not imagined before. Productivity gains In the near-term, the biggest potential economic uplift from AI is likely to come from improved produc

34、tivity (see Figure 1). This includes automation of routine tasks, augmenting employees capabilities and freeing them up to focus on more stimulating and higher value- adding work. Capital-intensive sectors such as manufacturing and transport are likely to see the largest productivity gains from AI,

35、given that many of their operational processes are highly susceptible to automation. The impact on productivity could be competitively transformative businesses that fail to adapt and adopt could quickly find themselves undercut on turnaround times as well as costs. They stand to lose a significant

36、amount of their market share as a result. However, the potential of this initial phase of AI application mainly centres on enhancing whats already being done, rather than creating too much thats new. Source: PwC analysis Figure 1: Where will the value gains come from with AI? 7Whats the real value o

37、f AI for your business and how can you capitalise? Increased consumer demand Eventually, the GDP uplift from product enhancements and subsequent shifts in consumer demand, behaviour and consumption emanating from AI will overtake the productivity gains, potentially delivering more than $9 trillion o

38、f additional GDP in 2030. Consumers will be mostly attracted to higher quality and more personalised products and services, but will also have the chance to make better use of their time think of what you could do if you no longer had to drive yourself to work, for example. In turn, increased consum

39、ption creates a virtuous cycle of more data touchpoints and hence more data, better insights, better products and hence moreconsumption. The consumer revolution set off by AI opens the way for massive disruption as both established businesses and new entrants drive innovation and develop new busines

40、s models. A key part of the impact of AI will come from its ability to make the most of parallel developments such as IoTconnectivity2. AI front-runners will have the advantage of superior customer insight. The immediate competitive benefits include an improved ability to tap into consumer preferenc

41、es, tailor their output to match these individual demands and, in doing so, capture an ever bigger slice of the market. And the front-runners ability to shape product developments around this rich supply of customer data will make it harder and harder for slower moving competitors to keep pace and c

42、ould eventually make their advantage unassailable. We can already see this data-driven innovation and differentiation in the way books, music, video and entertainment are produced, distributed and consumed, resulting in new business models, new market leaders and the elimination of traditional playe

43、rs that fail to adapt quickly enough. Healthcare, automotive and financial services are the sectors with the greatest potential for product enhancement and disruption due to AI according to our analysis. However, there is also significant potential for competitive advantage in particular areas of ot

44、her sectors, ranging from on-demand manufacturing to sharper content targeting within entertainment (we set out the business areas with most AI potential in each sector in the next section). Some job displacement but also new employment opportunities The adoption of no-human-in-the-loop technologies

45、 will mean that some posts will inevitably become redundant, but others will be created by the shifts in productivity and consumer demand emanating from AI, and through the value chain of AI itself. In addition to new types of workers who will focus on thinking creatively about how AI can be develop

46、ed and applied, a new set of personnel will be required to build, maintain, operate, and regulate these emerging technologies. For example, we will need the equivalent of air traffic controllers to control the autonomous vehicles on the road. Same day delivery and robotic packaging and warehousing a

47、re also resulting in more jobs for robots and for humans. All of this will facilitate the creation of new jobs that would not have existed in a world without AI. Impact on different regions As Figure 2 highlights, some economies have the potential to gain more than others in both absolute and relati

48、ve terms. China and North America are likely to see the biggest impact, though all economies should benefit. 2 AI is the key to realising the promise of IoT as AI becomes an indispensable element of IoT solutions and the convergence of AI and IoT spur the development of smart machines. We explore th

49、is further in Leveraging the upcoming disruptions from AI and IoT (https:/ 8Sizing the prize Figure 2: Which regions will gain the most from AI? Figure 1: Which regions gain the most from AI? North America Total impact: 14.5% of GDP Latin America Total impact: 5.4% of GDP ($3.7trillion) ($0.5trillion) Total impact: 5.6% of GDP ($1.2trillion) Total impact: 11.5% of GDP ($0.7trillion) Southern Europe Africa, Oceania and other Asian markets Total impact: 10.4% of GDP ($0.9trillion) Developed Asia Total impact: 9.9% of GDP ($1.8trillion) Northern Europe China Tot