食品飲料行業：高端白酒批價持續上挺重點強調燕京啤酒基本面改善-20200727[30頁].pdf

1、 1 7 25%25%25% 25%+0.98%-1.62% -0.54%300-0.86%7 +15.91%+10.82%+7.11% 300+8.20% 7-8 汾6 1573 飺 7-8 20H1 棬翪 棬 KA/BC + +滮 3-5 3-5 20Q2 20H1 Q1 20Q2 Q2 涯 20Q2 25%20H1 80g 70g20Q2 4 涯 20H1 680g 70g20Q2 20%+ 30%+2020 20Q2 15% Q2 20Q2 15% 飺+ 飬 2-3 1 217 3 Table_QuotePic 300 wind S0100519010004 綽 010-8512751

2、3 S0100118080028 S0100118080028 綽 0755-22662026 Table_docReport Table_Invest Table_Title / 2020727 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 19-07 19-11 20-03 20-07 300 / 2 4 棨 飺 + 6 20206 455.4 7.6%2020 1714.2 9.5% 20Q1 -35% 20Q3 20Q2 1173.809.91% 9.91% 7.09%仯 9.91% 20Q2 + +齭+ EPS PE 7 24 2020E 2021E 2022E 2020E 202

3、1E 2022E 600519 1595.30 38.15 45.20 52.87 42 35 30 000858 201.39 5.20 6.37 7.57 39 32 27 000568 113.98 3.81 4.65 5.47 30 25 21 002304 130.14 5.16 5.99 6.80 25 22 19 000596 181.25 4.35 5.25 6.18 42 35 29 600887 34.03 1.09 1.36 1.51 31 25 23 600597 16.65 0.44 0.49 0.56 38 34 30 002732 26.73 0.88 1.01

4、1.15 30 26 23 603288 137.07 2.31 2.74 3.20 59 50 43 600305 19.69 0.47 0.56 0.66 42 35 30 600872 64.58 1.07 1.32 1.62 60 49 40 002507 36.68 0.98 1.16 1.37 37 32 27 600600 80.33 1.42 1.72 2.06 57 47 39 002461 齭 12.93 0.26 0.27 0.30 50 48 43 600132 69.60 1.10 1.37 1.57 63 51 44 000729 7.71 0.10 0.14 0.

5、18 77 55 43 棬 qRqPmMqPsNmOuMpQrNpQnOaQcM9PpNrRpNmMeRnNoRfQmOqPbRpPvMNZoMtRNZqMtN / 3 . 4 . 4 2-3 . 11 . 15 6 . 17 . 18 . 21 . 21 . 22 . 22 . 23 壩 . 23 . 24 . 24 . 25 . 28 . 28 / 4 720-242.57%-0.54% 300 -0.86%飬 122.57 123.06 ?PE-TTM10 100% 1PE-TTM 10 Wind 1. 6 5 2 31 6 13 鷴 6 46 1.8% 5 1 2.9% 7 6 615

6、.2%3.7 5鵼 77 5-6 / 5 7 8-9 2. 1 1713 飬 2 3 20-302 2530-2550 2020 2021 塣 2 20192019徭 幤 2019 2019 7.5 +6.88% 4.99595.42+18.14% 37.810 98%100% 2020 2020 衢+顱 2020 2020 10% 53.71 / 6 2020 10% 10% 12%9%12% a757 43.12%50% b ? 12 20Q1 5%3 c 滮滮5滮乫 d 10% 213 3 3KA KA 61822 KA 50 1 1 1502019 109 2 1302019 3 12

7、02019 4 180 5 802019 6 502019 塢27 7 50 10 8 40 9 10 10 11 50 / 7 12 13 70 14 40 15 16 17 40 18 19 20 21 40 22 50 23 / 50 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 2.4 31 170100 32 200 33 13080 3. 1 2020 滮2020 5%-8%2020 裬 棬 2 6 16 顣 / 8 161839 淶 塢1618 161839 硢 2020 3 5 940-950960 4. 71573 2-3 4 漰 515732/34 5 77211573 / 9

8、 Q2檔 21573 2 1573 1 2 3 60 3 Wind 5. 飺壬7-8 4 飬Q2 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2008 7 2008 11 2009 3 2009 7 2009 11 2010 3 2010 7 2010 11 2011 3 2011 7 2011 11 2012 3 2012 7 2012 11 2013 3 2013 7 2013 11 2014 3 2014 7 2014 11 2015 3 2015 7 2015 11 2016 3 2016 7 2016 11 2017 3 2017 7 2017 11 2018 3 20

9、18 7 2018 11 2019 3 2019 7 2019 11 2020 3 2020 7 1573 / 10 4/510.9/9.2檔6 9.8%棬 5.2 棬 6 100%Q235.61%棬 8.52% 飺7-8 7-8 3 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2007 12.3 -5.7 7.1 22.1 10.4 5.3 12.7 12.9 4.9 12.7 -13.9 28.8 2008 -13.4 -1.8 -15.2 3.5 -10.7 -19.2 13.6 -12.6 -9.1 -28.2 14.5 -2.1 2009 0.7 9.9 3.3 3.3

10、 1.3 24.9 10.3 -5.8 5.3 0.8 19.4 3.0 2010 -4.5 -1.7 -2.4 -9.2 -1.5 -2.9 14.1 14.2 6.7 2.1 16.3 -10.2 2011 -5.7 2.5 -0.5 2.1 2.3 5.8 7.3 5.1 -12.3 4.3 2.8 -11.6 2012 -2.2 11.9 -3.3 11.8 0.3 2.0 0.8 -8.7 7.3 0.4 -17.8 3.5 2013 -12.1 -0.3 -11.6 -2.9 10.4 -10.4 -7.9 1.1 -13.0 -4.7 4.6 -6.1 2014 -5.7 8.0

11、 3.0 4.1 -4.8 1.7 12.5 0.1 1.4 -3.6 2.0 21.0 2015 -3.5 2.8 6.5 18.4 4.0 6.5 -14.8 -8.5 -2.5 9.4 -0.3 7.6 2016 -14.1 0.9 18.9 1.3 4.6 10.5 5.6 -1.9 -4.6 6.7 0.2 1.2 2017 2.3 6.6 7.0 3.5 4.6 7.9 4.4 1.2 6.2 14.3 -1.4 12.2 2018 7.1 -8.0 -6.2 -0.1 17.6 -3.7 -2.1 -12.3 9.4 -26.6 5.9 0.5 2019 14.3 13.4 20

12、.2 8.9 -6.4 13.5 -0.8 14.8 -0.6 1.2 -3.2 5.1 2020 -7.6 -3.0 0.8 13.4 8.9 9.8 40% 60% 60% 80% 73% 73% 64% 50% 57% 71% 64% 71% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2006 -2.2 10.5 4.5 30.5 7.7 7.1 -1.8 -2.9 -1.8 1.4 9.7 4.1 2007 8.2 -9.1 -3.4 1.5 3.4 12.3 -4.3 -3.8 -1.5 5.5 4.3 20.8 2008 3.3 -1.1 5.0 -2.8 -3.7 1

13、.1 12.2 1.0 -4.8 -3.6 6.2 0.6 2009 -8.6 5.3 -10.7 -1.1 -4.9 12.5 -5.0 16.0 1.1 -7.0 12.8 0.4 2010 4.3 -3.8 -4.3 -1.5 8.2 4.6 4.1 14.2 6.1 -10.0 21.6 -9.8 2011 -5.0 -1.6 -1.2 2.6 8.1 5.1 9.5 10.1 -4.2 -0.3 8.3 -5.9 2012 -6.4 6.0 3.5 5.9 1.3 8.2 6.3 -6.0 5.4 1.2 -13.6 -11.1 2013 -17.2 0.6 -6.1 -0.3 4.

14、8 3.6 -8.7 -4.1 -16.7 -3.2 0.9 -1.4 2014 -1.8 6.9 4.1 4.5 -5.4 1.2 5.0 -0.6 -5.2 -6.0 -8.9 0.7 2015 -2.7 -0.3 -6.8 -0.2 0.1 13.8 -0.4 4.0 2.3 -1.4 -2.1 4.9 2016 8.5 2.7 7.2 3.4 5.3 10.1 3.9 -5.4 -2.0 3.5 -4.6 5.7 2017 0.5 4.0 7.9 5.6 5.8 5.4 1.9 -1.4 6.6 12.9 0.9 12.5 2018 1.9 -1.7 -3.4 2.7 17.1 4.3

15、 -3.2 -7.1 5.9 -18.9 6.4 4.1 2019 10.7 -0.4 15.1 9.0 -0.5 10.7 0.8 16.3 -2.2 0.4 1.3 -1.1 2020 -4.4 0.7 5.3 10.9 9.2 5.2 47% 53% 53% 67% 73% 100% 57% 43% 43% 43% 64% 64% Wind / 11 4 EPS PE 20Q1 20Q2E 2020E 20Q1 20Q2E 2020E 2019 2020E 2021E 2019 2020E 2021E 600519 12.8% 13.0% 13.0% 16.7% 18.0% 17.0%

16、32.80 37.73 45.20 50 44 36 000858 15.1% 11.0% 18.0% 19.0% 17.0% 17.0% 4.48 5.20 6.13 46 39 34 000568 -14.8% -4.0% 17.0% 12.7% 10.0% 22.0% 3.17 3.93 4.62 36 29 25 603369 -9.4% 5.0% 22.0% -9.5% 8.0% 20.0% 1.16 1.38 1.62 39 33 28 002304 -14.9% -6.0% 8.0% -0.5% 2.0% 10.8% 4.90 5.40 6.41 26 24 20 600779

17、-21.6% -2.0% 17.0% -12.6% 5.0% 20.0% 1.69 1.97 2.33 42 36 31 600809 1.7% 12.0% 15.1% 39.4% 20.0% 13.7% 2.23 2.66 3.27 70 59 48 000596 -10.6% -2.0% 16.1% -18.7% 4.0% 23.1% 4.17 5.39 6.48 47 36 30 000860 15.9% 5.0% 15.7% -17.6% -5.0% 24.9% 1.09 1.85 2.37 60 35 28 Wind 2-3 1. 4-5 Q2 2. 2020仯 2020仯19Q2

18、201810 19Q2 仯 / 12 3. CTR 20Q2 2020Q2 棨2020Q2 /2020Q2 /3.93/156.93-41.18%/-46.35% / 2.28 /108.51 +35.14%/+50.79% / 0.36 /11.41 +124.46%/+207.52%忴2020Q2 20Q1 4 52020Q2仯 CTR CTR 仯2020Q2/ 20Q2 / Q1 2020 6仯 7仯 CTR CTR 0 2 4 6 8 0 100 200 300 400 2019Q2 2020Q2 -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 2020Q2

19、-YOY -100% 0% 100% 200% 0 2 4 6 8 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 YOY YOY -100% 0% 100% 200% 0 100 200 300 400 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 YOY YOY / 13 20Q1 2020Q2 2020Q2 / 45.98%/23.96%-1.78%/-35.84%69.94% 1.78% 棬 2020Q2/61.31%/32.62%/3.74% +18.98%/-12.11%/-24.02%2020Q2+ 90%

20、 2020Q22020Q2 / 47.08%/28.30%+196.43%/+14.49% 2020Q2 棬2020Q2硢顢 / 49.10%/18.51%/19.88%/6.89%+159.35%/-27.79%/+582.80%/ +6824.24% 鼰 8 9 CTR CTR 2020Q22020Q2 /48.26%/22.49%/+176.82%/ +55.51%2020Q2 棬 2020Q2 / 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2019Q2 2020Q2 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2019Q2 2020Q2 / 14 32.46%/64.80%

21、+62.58% /+169.20% 10 CTR 11 CTR 4. 飺 徺 仯 2-3 1 217 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2019Q2 2020Q2 UHT 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2019Q2 2020Q2 / 15 3 4 200飩 飺 5 EPS PE 20Q1 20Q2E 2020E 20Q1 20Q2E 2020E 2019 2020E 2021E 2019 2020E 2021E 600419 -0.1% 8.0% 7.0% -36.2% 10.0% 9.0% 0.67 0.52 0.58 21 27 25 600887 -1

22、1.0% 15.0% 12.0% -49.8% 6.0% 12.3% 1.15 1.29 1.45 30 27 24 002732 -8.1% 12.0% 12.9% -92.2% 15.0% 20.3% 0.79 0.93 1.07 33 28 24 600429 -21.9% 5.0% 8.9% -325.0% -10.0% 8.1% 0.09 0.17 0.19 60 32 28 600597 -5.8% 20.0% 10.8% -45.4% 14.0% 23.7% 0.41 0.45 0.50 37 33 30 Wind Q2 20H1 2020 棬 翪3 棬KA/BC +滮3-5 翪

23、3-5 / 16 Q2 KA KA Q2 涯 20H1 20Q1 淴20Q2 20H1 Q2 Q225%20H110% 20Q2 20Q1120Q1 19Q11019Q4 2鷢 4 20Q2 涯 20Q2 20Q11920Q1 202010% 20Q220% 680g 70g Q2 Q2 Q2 15% 12 11 12 1 2 洦 3 溼軔 2020 25-30% Q2 4 5 20%+ / 17 6棬 嶯 19Q1 19Q2 Q2 15% 飺+ 6 EPS PE 20Q1 20Q2E 2020E 20Q1 20Q2E 2020E 2019 2020E 2021E 2019 2020E 202

24、1E 603288 7.2% 14.0% 10.0% 9.2% 16.0% 10.0% 1.98 2.33 2.77 66 56 47 600872 -6.3% 23.0% 15.4% 8.9% 26.0% 18.8% 0.90 1.09 1.37 71 59 47 002507 -8.3% 23.0% 13.2% 6.7% 30.0% 15.4% 0.77 0.98 1.16 49 38 32 603027 23.6% 22.0% 17.1% 39.3% 28.0% 21.5% 0.43 0.57 0.69 78 59 49 600305 0.3% 12.0% 10.9% 3.7% 15.0

25、% 15.2% 0.41 0.52 0.59 48 38 34 Wind 6 20Q1 鷢 2020Q1 549 -35.10%2020Q1 96 -27.64%2.96-69.80% Q1 Q120206 455.4 7.6%2020 1714.2 9.5% 20Q1 -35% 20Q3 20Q2 1173.809.91%9.91% 7.09%仯9.91% 6 鷴 4-5 Q2 + +齭+ 7 EPS PE 20Q1 20Q2E 2020E 20Q1 20Q2E 2020E 2019 2020E 2021E 2019 2020E 2021E 000729 -41.9% 12.0% 2.6%

26、-518.0% 25.0% 24.9% 0.08 0.12 0.14 89 61 52 / 18 002461 齭 -26.3% 9.0% 0.9% -31.1% 18.0% 4.0% 0.22 0.23 0.25 54 52 48 600132 -33.4% 7.0% 5.0% -60.2% 15.0% -12.7% 1.36 1.11 1.23 51 62 56 600600 -20.9% 12.0% 4.6% -33.5% 20.0% 20.4% 1.37 1.55 1.79 59 53 46 Wind 8& EPS PE 20Q1 20Q2E 2020E 20Q1 20Q2E 2020

27、E 2019 2020E 2021E 2019 2020E 2021E 000895 47.0% 37.0% 10.9% 13.8% 10.0% 7.3% 1.64 1.78 1.97 33 31 28 603517 -7.6% 12.0% 13.4% -65.3% 8.0% 18.7% 1.38 1.63 1.91 56 47 40 002695 8.3% 14.0% 16.2% 2.1% 16.0% 27.7% 0.43 0.55 0.66 61 47 39 002557 10.3% 15.0% 15.0% 30.8% 28.0% 20.0% 1.19 1.42 1.74 42 36 29

28、 603156 -48.8% -12.0% -12.0% -38.2% -10.0% -10.0% 2.56 2.35 2.63 10 10 9 002661 12.8% 11.0% 24.1% 69.7% 120.0% 21.8% 0.63 0.77 0.87 37 30 27 600298 12.7% 14.0% 12.9% 28.0% 80.0% 13.5% 1.09 1.46 1.61 58 43 39 603866 15.8% 0.0% 17.2% 60.5% 22.0% 16.2% 1.04 1.20 1.40 55 47 40 300146 -4.8% 8.0% 25.0% 7.

29、5% 10.0% 473.0% (0.24) 0.84 0.96 (88) 25 22 603043 0.1% 12.0% 16.8% -73.2% 20.0% 17.5% 0.95 1.31 1.55 32 23 20 603711 -48.6% -10.0% 28.9% -264.7% -15.0% 10.0% 0.85 1.12 1.40 34 25 20 300783 19.0% 15.0% 17.6% -24.6% 8.0% 21.6% 0.63 1.01 1.26 109 68 54 Wind 2020 720-2020724 1.62%300 0.86% 0.54%3021 +2

30、.48%+1.21%+1.04% 12 1.62% Wind -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 717 720 721 722 723 724 300 / 19 1330 21 Wind 14 Wind 21.42%15.80%13.30% 11.50%10.78%10.03%齭8.56% 6.52%5.91%5.47% -15.37%ST-12.69%-12.16%-9.27% -8.52%-8.24%-7.77%-7.41% -7.30%-7.27% 9 % % 21.42% -15.37% 15.80% ST -12.69% 13.30% -12.16% 11.50% -9.27% 10.

31、78% -8.52% 10.03% -8.24% 齭 8.56% -7.77% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% / 20 6.52% -7.41% 5.91% -7.30% 5.47% -7.27% Wind 321915311687 156 4129 2019 2110 91 10鱱 () () () () 141.31 57.01 84.30 -27.29 -0.13% 118.27 47.10 71.18 -24.08 -0.30% 60.61 28.00 32.61 -4.62 -0.23% Wind 5% 15

32、5%? Wind 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 8/30 9/30 10/31 11/30 12/31 1/31 2/29 3/31 4/30 5/31 6/30 / 21 16鱱 Wind 17鱱 Wind 18/500mL 19/500mL Wind Wind -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 -1% 0% 1% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2015/03 2016/03 2017/03 2018/03 2019/03 2020/03 (53) (52) 0 100

33、200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2015/03 2016/03 2017/03 2018/03 2019/03 2020/03 (M3)(52) (52) 30(53) (52) / 22 202020 6 212020 6 Wind Wind 222020 6 Liv-exFineWine100 232020 6 Wind Wind 242020 6 252020 6 Wind Wind 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 2015-03 2016-03 2017-03 2018-03 2019-03 2020-03 L

34、iv-ex100 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2015-03 2017-03 2019-03 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2015/02 2016/02 2017/02 2018/02 2019/02 2020/02 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 2015-02 2016-02 2017-02 2018-02 2019-02 2

35、020-02 630ml/ 350ml/ 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 2015-02 2016-02 2017-02 2018-02 2019-02 2020-02 / / 23 26 27 Wind Wind 286 297 Wind Wind 壩 30 316 Wind Wind -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5

36、 4.0 4.5 2013/04 2014/08 2015/12 2017/04 2018/08 2019/12 / YOY(RHS) 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 2015/04 2016/08 2017/12 2019/04 / / 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 2015/04 2016/08 2017/12 2019/04 / / 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 2015 -1 2015 -4 2015 -8 2015 -11 2016 -3 2016 -6 2016 -10 2017 -1 2017 -5 2017 -8 2

37、017 -12 2018 -3 2018 -7 2018 -10 2019 -2 2019 -5 2019 -9 2019 -12 2020 -4 2020 -7 / / 0 50 100 150 2015/04 2016/08 2017/12 2019/04 / / / / 磨/ 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2015/02 2016/02 2017/02 2018/02 2019/02 2020/02 / 24 1517.3% 22 2020 1-5 1138.1 6% 78.6 17.3%5 42.6 4.4% 24.4 18.8%e 2彣 7

38、21 100 100 175 3 7 21 飬 裬 41573 721 1573 1573 1573 1573 5 Bi-07(Bb-12) 20192008 3 2015502020100 Food Plus Hub / 25 1/ 7 20 棬 2020513 -713 157,530 2.86% 2020 7 16 -7 17 780,000 14.18% 937,530 17.05% 7 20 棬 鳬 6 3% 19,974,434 鳬 266,887,443 , 665,814,478 40.08% 7 22 棬 2020 6 2 棬 300,0000.073%2020722 300

39、,0000.073% 900,000 0.220% 7245%棬 15 3 90 6,164,819 1%35,927,3865.83% 2 7 20 棬 23,000,000 4.27%0.38% 2020720 228,000,00042.34% 3.75% 7 22 棬 75,000,000 37.76% 7.67% 2020 7 21 186,549,49755.17% / 26 19.07% 7 24 棬 2,12010.04%4.18% 211,116,74341.64% 22,000,00010.42% 4.34% 7 24 棬 5000 18.30% 8.52% 289,608

40、7.78% 49.33% 3 7 23 棬 2016 14 2019 20%4 2019 40%2 2019 2016 漲 20 1,472,000 4.90/7,212,8001,582,492,554 1,581,020,554 4 7 20 棬 豸 濪 2020 7 22 棬 麣 飬 68,100.0040,000.00 / 27 ST722 棬 68 80% 棬飬 7 22 棬 60% 30% 60%30% 7 23 棬 3,239,482.88 7 24 棬2020728 ? 塢 / 28 1PE-TTM 10 . 4 21573 . 9 3 . 9 4 . 12 52020Q2仯

41、. 12 6仯 . 12 7仯 . 12 8 . 13 9 . 13 10 . 14 11 . 14 12 1.62%. 18 13 30 21 . 19 14 . 19 15 5%? . 20 17鱱 . 21 18/500mL . 21 19/500mL . 21 2020206 . 22 2120206 . 22 2220206 Liv-exFineWine100 . 22 2320206 . 22 2420206 . 22 2520206 . 22 26 . 23 27 . 23 286 . 23 297 . 23 30 . 23 316 . 23 1 . 6 2 . 9 3 6 . 10 4 . 11 5 . 15 6 . 17 7 . 17 8& . 18 9 . 19 10鱱 . 20 / 29 2011 滮2018 淢12 15% 5%15% -5%5% 5% 淢12 5% -5%5% 5% 28A17100005 12391201A-C200122 5016 A 6701-01518001 / 30 浱 棬漰 飬 漰 / 漰 漰 棬 檔