AI 硬件：第二波浪潮（2025-2027 年）.pdf

1、For Reg.AC certification and important disclosures,see the last page(s)of this report.AI Hardware:The Second Wave(2025-2027)11 September 2024Brett Simpson,AnalystArete Research Services LLP+44(0)20 7959 1320Janco Venter,AnalystArete Research Services LLPJ+27 71216 3220Nam Hyung Kim,AnalystArete Rese

2、arch,LLC +1 424 228 79142Key Summary TakeawaysWe see a second wave of AI growth coming in the 2025-2027 period.Training clusters are scaling up,while we see AI inference demand layering in as new architectures drive material reduction in cost per token.See slides 3-12.The speed of technology change

3、is frightening in the 2025-2027 period.Back-side power,102T Ethernet,serdes to 400G,Next generation COWOS,UALink,wafer scale technology,HBM4,use of photonics,etc.See slide 4.We review industry capacity plans through 2027 for both foundry and HBM,and see a fresh round of LTAs ahead.HBM4 pricing likel

4、y to jump 50%on a per GB basis.COWOS could reach 100k wpm by YE27.See slides 5-7.We look at the challenges around monetization and the opportunities ahead from enterprise,consumer,SaaS co-pilots,and government.Hyperscaler capex this year is broadly capacity add next year.See slides 9-11.With smartph

5、ones and PCs embracing EDGE AI starting in 25,we look at the opportunities and challenges in scaling this up over the next few years.See slide 12.Who can fund the buildout of 1m accelerator clusters?We believe all major CSPs are planning to build GW sites to realise this hardware scaling capability

6、by decade-end.3The Exponential R&D Arms Race Continues2025-20272028-20301M XPUs?100K B200s$50-100bncapex?Cluster Sizes continue to scale exponentially the next five years to support next gen foundation models.Leading-edge model makers need access to this capability at each generation.We are heading

7、into third-generation Gen AI clusters but yet to see many of the flagship models from the Gen2 era.Still training-centric market structure today.2023-2525K H100s$5bn+capex$1bn capex$150mcapex202210K A100sGen1 AIGen2 AIGen3 AIGen4 AIUnique Pace of Technology Change through 20274GPU/XPUInterconnectSwi

8、tchingHBMAI accelerators shrinking to TSMC A16 process with backside power.Interposer sizes to jump to 8x mask(6800mm sq)in 27.System on wafer(SoW)starts 27?Low-latency Ethernet platforms in development 102T switching commercially available by 2027 with major advances around integration and packagin

9、g ahead.400G serdes on UALink by 2027?Cluster sizes surge next 3-4 years:1m accelerator cluster=3m back-end connections?Or will photonic interposers disrupt?20HI HBM4E(80GB per HBM chip)by 27 vs 24GB per chip today-means memory per accelerator will surge.With the push to lower precision(FP2?)ample c

10、ost reduction for inference ahead.Pace of tech change frightening so much disruption ahead.The industry needs to convince TSMC to build major capacity through 2027.This planning process has already started.OtherRising chiplet adoption,cache coherent CPUs,wafer scale platforms,FP2 precision,new laser

11、s,AEC cables,liquid cooling,nuclear-powered datacenters 5The Importance of Planning Capacity to 2027Source:Arete Research estimates.Table 1:Foundry Capacity Plans,YE27Balance sheets appear challenged at Intel and Samsung.Burden is largely on TSMC to build out 180k wpm or more for its next node(2nm,A

12、16,A14)through 2027.It takes 2 years to build a fab and another year to equip it.New Fabs for 27 are already planned in.2nm will see AI accelerators ramp early,given power savings.Intel and Samsung capacity plans still in flux.It costs around$4bn per 10k wpm to bring on new fab equipment at 2nm.Prod

13、uction time c.130 days.It takes two years to build a new datacenter.Cloud capacity plans ebb and flow.Capex to sales jump contentious.AI demand for inference is challenging to forecast.Cyclical risks are rising across AI supply chain.2nm Capacity Plans-2027Wafers Per MonthAnnualised TSMC Peak Capaci

14、ty180k2,160kPrior nodes peaked at 120-130k wpmIntel Peak Capacity50k600kArizona and Ohio ramp planSamsung Peak Capacity30k360kSF2 capacity rampTotal Industry Capacity 2027260k3,120kjust over 3m wafers in CY272nm Capacity BreakdownGood Die/Wafernits(m)Wafers(k/year)%2nm capacityPC Processor2502501000

15、32.1%CPU server chips110222006.4%Smartphone AP500600120038.5%Implied Capacity for AI Accelerators3620.0720k23.1%6Accelerator Outlook to 2027:12m Units,680k Wafers Why is Foundry Planning Critical For This Period?Scale of Growth is Unique?Industry planning 5m accelerators in CY24.Projecting 10.5m uni

16、ts(i.e.a doubling)in 2026.Die per accelerator doubling over this period.Implies a quadrupling of die area from 24-26.TSMC COWOS capacity plan is lifeblood of industry.Capacity was 12.5k wpm exiting 2023 could reach 50k wpm by YE25(a 4x Jump).Could TSMC support 100k wpm by YE27?We assume 680k wafer o

17、utput for CY27(i.e.10%for G2000 corporates.Enterprise software(a$1tn market)readying AI co-pilots as an upsell to core offerings.Can they bolt on 10-20%upsell on 3-5 yr view?Global government IT spend reached$700bn in 2023,growing double digits yoy.In our view,there is no government department that

18、will not see meaningful productivity savings from implementing AI across their business next 3-5 years.11On-Device EDGE AI:Starts in 2025PC and Smartphones“AI Ready”The market is readying for a big replacement cycle in PC and Smartphones.Globally,600m PCs are 5+years old.300m refurbished smartphones

19、 were sold in 2024.Out with the old,in with the new.Small models still create power consumption challenges,even with dedicated GPU/NPU compared to smartphones.The industry faces significant integration issues multiple OEMs,multiple model makers,multiple chip architectures.Building out a compelling v

20、oice experience for AI is really challenging.Despite advancements in various memory technologies,there is a significant“memory wall”challenge i.e.,performance disparity between processor speed and memory access grows(Fig 3).Can the industry create an LP-HBM adaptation for client-side devices?JEDEC s

21、tandards are not dealing with the issues here.NPU compute to scale fast.Minimum TOPS thresholds will jump.Vertical players such as Apple can move fast.Key area of differentiation.We forecast 300-350m AI smartphones to ship in 2025E(25-30%of the market)and 60-90m AI PCs(20-25%of market).Half of PCs a

22、nd smartphones to be AI ready in 2026E?Fig 3:Memory Wall Industry Needs To Bridge GapSource:EDN AsiaSemis content jumping 10-15%per year to support rising specs.Period of inflation ahead for 2025-2027.12Want to see more of our work on AI?Scan the QR code and we will reach out to you directly when we

23、 launch later this year.Thank you for listeningDisclosures13Overall Industry Risks:Algorithm changes can take longer than expected,ETH prices could rise enough to offset block reward and difficulty changes in the near term,and a new GPU mineable cryptocurrency driving significant GPU demand could em

24、erge.A deteriorating global economicenvironment could impact the semiconductor industry,rapidly creating significant oversupply,underutilization of fabs,declining ASPs or the write-off of inventory.During 09,semis sales fell 10%(ex-memory).Competition in all sectors is intense.Equally,in some segmen

25、ts the availability of leading-edge capacity promptly is also a problem.The smartphone space is a dynamic market with dozens of players making products that require complex hardware and software integration skills;it is hard to predict how any one vendor might fare with any particular model,though t

26、he space for so called devices is limited by the struggle to differentiate flat black slabs,i.e.,standard touchscreen devices largely running on Android OS.Primary Analyst(s)Coverage Group:Brett Simpson Advanced Micro Devices,Broadcom,Credo Technology Group,Intel,Marvell Technology Group,MediaTek,NV

27、IDIA,Qorvo,Qualcomm,Skyworks Solutions,TSMC;Nam Hyung Kim Lenovo,LG Display,LG Energy Solution,Micron Technology,Rambus,Samsung Electronics,Samsung SDI,SK Hynix,Sony,Universal Display,Western Digital;Jim Fontanelli Analog Devices,ASM International,ASML Holding,BE Semiconductor,Infineon,NXP Semicondu

28、ctors,Soitec,STMicroelectronics,Wolfspeed;Blair Botha Ambarella,GlobalFoundries,United Microelectronics Corp.Potential Conflicts:Advanced Micro Devices,Broadcom An analyst or a member of an analysts household owns equity securities in this company.For important disclosure information regarding the c

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