科技行業專題研究：關注優質長賽道、碳中和與元宇宙-220103（16頁）.pdf

1、 1 () 豸 () Wind 2022103 棬 2.94% 300 0.39% 0.78% 2022 12 IDC 3ICT 豸硢 2022 2022 1鷽棬 20212023 CAGR 39.8%2 IDC 3ICT豸 2021 6340 28.9% C114 12 31 飬 6340 28.9%2021 202570%緋 C114 12 28 塱滮 202570%緋 500 70% 50% 150 200 120 12307棬顢 磻5G (19)(12)(4)411Jan-21 May-21 Aug-21 Dec-21(%)豸300 2 棬 2.94% 300 0.39%0.78% 2

2、022 12 IDC 3ICT 豸硢 2022 2022 1鷽棬 20212023 CAGR 39.8%2 IDC3ICT豸 1棬 2021 11 15 20212023 CAGR 39.8% 5G CPE 20212023 CAGR 143.6%棬 5G ARPU 2022飬塱 CAGR 7.76%飬 1 2020 2023E 2531.1 2803.0 T-box 46.70% 78.00% 3G 6.00% 0.00% 4G 93.00% 84.00% 5G 1.00% 16.00% 3G鵥/ 80 68.6 4G鵥/ 180 154.3 5G鵥/ 1000 867.4 3G( 0.5

3、0.0 4G( 19.8 28.3 5G( 1.2 30.4 21.5 58.7 2 202120235G CPE CAGR 143.6% 2020 2023E 5G CPE 300 5000 CPE5G 1 1 5G/ 1000 867.4 5G CPE 30 433.7 5G mNsMtRsMrNxPpNpMxOvNvM9PcM9PpNoOsQmOjMpPqRkPrRqM7NoOxOuOrMmMxNnMmM 3 2 IDC IDC 壬 IDC 飻2024 56920202024CAGR18.4% 3 3: 2021 10Meta Facebook潨裬紫5G 棬Sony 2022 IaaS

4、棬 2022IDC2022 2021/2022 5%/14% 4 2021/2022 5%/14% IDC 0%5%10%15%20%25%01002003004005006002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E -5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,0002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 4 5G 2021 634

5、0 28.9% C114 12 31 飬 6340 28.9%2021 Omdia棺2022 5000 C114 12 29 Omdia 棬2022 5000 2020 2400 Omdia 粿 Omdia 2020 6.2 20227.19 2020 2% 2022 4%500 Mbit/s-1 Gbit/s 2020 15% 2022 21%202617%1 Gbit/s 700MHz20 C114 12 29 繒 700MHz 5G20軥 IP 5G 5G 廯700MHz 5G C114 12 31 5G 5G 5G OA GlobalData5GLeader C114 12 27 Gl

6、obalData 5G Mobile Core: Competitive Landscape Assessment 5G豸 2021 LeaderGlobalData ICT 2G/3G/4G/5G NSA/SA粢潫豸 5G 5G SA繲浼GlobalData 5GtoC 5GtoB 5 631忨4750 C114 12 29 631忨 4,750顣 2 3 0.93 106 12 31 5棬CT 豸 IT 106 2 5G AMFSMFUDM C114 12 30 2021 5G 棬漰 5G 豸 AMFSMFUDMUPFPCFNRFNSSF 硢 6 C114 12 28 2022-2023磨

7、002491 CH 600487 CH 601869 CH 6 60,652,956 6,053.7359 4-6 C114 12 27 2021 655.3 303.5 22600522 CH600487 CH12 2021洢 699 C114 12 27 2021 洢 1洢2洢洢 363 洢139197 6 &IDC 12 30 7棬顢6 100% 100%1069 99.72% 90.14%鷽棬廩 6.7 100% 100% 100 IDC 12 27亣 25 500KW IT 14 42U 35kW IDC 5-7 PUE 1.10塣300065 CHUDC2022 5-6 6.5 2

8、023-2024 50 彨衣 28 2025 - 100 56 塱滮 12 28 簲塱滮塱滮裬 12 28 () 2019 1H21 1.92 2.641.99 622 -958 387 10 罻 AI 泿1230Create2021 ( AI )AI AI AI 7 & 202570%緋 C114 12 28 塱滮 2025 70%緋 500 70% 50% 150 200 120 12 31 塱滮裬 12 31ITU-T豸豸洢 2021CPSE 12 28漰5G 36% 8 5 Wind 6 7 Wind Wind (0.5) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5

9、 4.0225SWHSISWASWSWSW%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2020-122020-122021-012021-012021-022021-032021-032021-032021-042021-042021-052021-052021-062021-062021-072021-072021-082021-082021-092021-092021-102021-102021-112021-112021-122021-122021-12SW SWA0.601.001.242.940 1 2 3 4SWASW% 9 8 仯 9 豸仯 Wind Wind 10

10、仯 11 &仯 Wind Wind 12 豸仯 13 &仯 Wind Wind 024681012141605,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,0002018-062018-072018-092018-112019-012019-032019-042019-062019-082019-102019-122020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-092021-11P/E() PETTM巨010203040506005001,0001,5002,00

11、02,5003,0003,5002019-112019-122020-012020-032020-042020-052020-062020-072020-082020-092020-102020-112020-122021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-12P/E() PETTM巨(100)01002003004005006007000501001502002503003502018-062018-072018-092018-112019-012019-022019-042019-06

12、2019-082019-092019-112020-012020-032020-042020-062020-082020-102020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-082021-102021-12P/E() PETTM巨010203040506070809010002004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002018-062018-072018-092018-112019-012019-022019-042019-062019-082019-092019-112020-012020-032020-042020-062020

13、-082020-102020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-082021-102021-12P/E() PETTM巨0102030405060708005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5002018-062018-072018-092018-112019-012019-032019-042019-062019-082019-102019-122020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-092021-11P/E

14、() PETTM巨02040608010012001002003004005006007008009002018-062018-072018-092018-112018-122019-022019-042019-062019-072019-092019-112019-122020-022020-042020-052020-072020-092020-112020-122021-022021-042021-052021-072021-092021-11P/E() PETTM巨 10 14 & TOP10 TOP10 P/ETTM % P/ETTM % 5D 1M YTD 5D 1M YTD 30

15、0213 CH 65.04 25.64 28.92 26.06 600734 CH *ST -4.02 -12.21 1.00 149.59 300025 CH -17.07 20.53 13.15 9.91 603421 CH 242.18 -9.37 7.72 -7.40 603803 CH -5.19 20.36 20.00 -27.35 000032 CH A 297.97 -7.25 11.75 15.87 688313 CH 208.90 12.58 -0.08 -45.28 002837 CH 64.86 -6.67 -16.55 135.85 300571 CH 29.09 9

16、.89 34.81 54.22 601869 CH 35.35 -6.11 0.06 22.10 300394 CH 51.48 9.52 10.08 25.08 000070 CH 1,265.70 -5.39 -4.69 -29.42 300548 CH 39.31 9.11 -2.48 -4.65 300098 CH -9.48 -4.20 1.35 29.95 300590 CH 62.75 8.87 9.99 13.47 002089 CH ST -10.65 -4.02 0.84 25.79 603881 CH 93.60 8.59 6.24 -13.90 300134 CH -1

17、40.43 -3.59 -1.56 22.36 688668 CH 57.24 8.48 10.63 138.86 002491 CH 144.88 -3.53 -9.56 20.59 Bloomberg 15 / / 12-31 % 5D 1M YTD Top5 1 600522 CH CNY 16.96 6.13% -8.72% 58.04% 1.21 22.75 3.93 2 300308 CH CNY 42.50 2.68% 11.43% -16.18% 0.79 31.17 9.16 3 000938 CH CNY 22.85 5.79% -11.64% 12.23% 0.74 12

18、.96 1.98 4 600498 CH CNY 17.98 2.33% 1.30% -25.01% 0.53 5.65 2.77 5 762 HK HKD 3.90 0.52% -0.76% -5.06% 0.47 0.00 0.00 Top5 1 603236 CH CNY 203.90 2.46% 5.75% 42.14% -0.46 7.13 3.54 2 002544 CH CNY 23.74 1.93% -19.96% 42.22% -0.43 8.22 5.06 3 603712 CH CNY 43.30 4.31% 16.71% 4.24% -0.26 3.37 1.00 4

19、603881 CH CNY 36.92 8.59% 6.24% -13.90% -0.24 1.38 1.13 5 300590 CH CNY 28.85 8.87% 9.99% 13.47% -0.21 0.24 0.26 Bloomberg 11 16 12 31 EPS () P/E () () () 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 000063 CH 33.50 48.32 0.92 1.62 1.92 2.13 36.41 20.68 17.45 15.73 000938 CH 22.85 36.36 0.66 0.81 1

20、.02 1.29 34.62 28.21 22.40 17.71 603236 CH 203.90 211.37 1.30 2.42 4.09 6.63 156.85 84.26 49.85 30.75 688100 CH 34.43 39.54 0.55 0.70 0.94 1.24 62.60 49.19 36.63 27.77 000988 CH 27.86 37.60 0.55 0.94 1.15 1.38 50.65 29.64 24.23 20.19 300502 CH 39.18 41.28 0.97 1.30 1.55 1.89 40.39 30.14 25.28 20.73

21、300308 CH 42.50 49.17 1.21 1.49 1.96 2.49 35.12 28.52 21.68 17.07 603881 CH 36.92 46.62 0.41 0.44 0.86 1.35 90.05 83.91 42.93 27.35 300628 CH 81.45 95.45 1.42 1.85 2.39 2.96 57.36 44.03 34.08 27.52 728 HK 2.60 4.30 0.26 0.28 0.31 0.35 8.74 7.98 7.16 6.51 600050 CH 3.93 5.53 0.18 0.21 0.25 0.30 21.83

22、 18.71 15.72 13.10 0.87 Bloomberg 17 (000063 CH) 3Q21 2021838.313.1%58.5115.8%棨yoy+78.0%124.8%Q3/14.2%/14.6%307.55G107.6%17.720214.7pct36.8%Q338.0%2021202375.4/89.2/98.7, 22WindPE23.67xAICT蹫202225x PE48.32 (000063 CH,): Q3 (000938 CH) 1210棬-2021202323.20/29.29/36.981040 36.36/ 2022PE 35.50 x (000938

23、 CH,): (603236 CH) +3Q21 74.76yoy+77.66%2.37yoy+89.53%3Q21 31.61yoy+84.37%1.03yoy+86.91%20212023 3.52/5.94/9.642.93/4.88/9.55PS2021WindPS3.05x蹫2021PS 3.05x 211.37/205.78/ (603236 CH,): Q3 (688100 CH) 1130棨2021-047 1.82020 13% 202220222023202120233.49/4.71/6.223.49/4.38/5.51A2022PEWind29.26x棬蹫 2022PE

24、42x39.54/26.34/ (688100 CH,): (000988 CH) 21 3 73.6863.37%8.01 64.69%棨 7.5-8.1 54.07%-66.40%5G 21239.46/11.57/13.837.36/9.12/11.29 10122021WindPE 30.65x21PE 40 x37.60 30.76 (000988 CH,): (300502 CH) 400G 1-3Q20.1940.48% 4.65 35.99%Q35.783.8%1.425.82% 400G 202120236.59/7.86/9.602021WindPE27.47x 21PE

25、31.76x41.28 (300502 CH,): Q3 12 (300308 CH) Q1-Q3 53.22YoY+2.25% 5.60YoY-6.63%Q320.24YoY+3.27%2.19YoY-6.58% 5000150%5G軔2123EPS1.49/1.96/2.4921WindPE29.95x21PE33x 49.17 (300308 CH,): (728 HK) 3Q21 10 22 9M219M21 12.5% 3,2922020 3.5%)15G ARPU 29M21 233 24.7%2020 1.7%)3Q21 / 11.3/17.4% 1,100 /56 1,075

26、/51 5G 2021-2023 EBITDA 1,276/1,310/1,364 2.6 2021EV EBITDA5 EV EBITDA3.6139594.30 (603881 CH) EBITDA 2021棬2021 8.5YoY+31.1% EBITDA 5.9YoY+49.2%1.0YoY-6.0% Q3 3.0YoY+18.1%QoQ+6.4%EBITDA 2.1YoY+22.8%QoQ+2.5% IDC壬2123EBITDA7.78/11.18/14.3821WindEV/EBITDA 24x蹫21 EV/EBITDA 24x46.62 (603881 CH,): EBITDA

27、(300628 CH) +3Q21 3Q218.815.6%4.113.7%2Q219 Q3 2021202316.7/21.5/26.8 17.3/22.2/27.62022WindPE27.16x蹫 2022 PE 40 x 95.45/98.50 / (300628 CH,): , 728 HK,3Q21 (600050 CH) 3Q21 1021202199M219M21 8.5% 2,444.92020 93.8%1 5G ARPU29M21 56.818.7%2020 9 10.84%3Q21/7.1/14.1%803.1/16.4 2021EV/EBITDA3.81蹫2021EV

28、/EBITDA 3.81 5.53/ (600050 CH,): 5G 3Q 18 202201 02 13.23.2 202201 01 202201 01 36 202113.2 6.1% 202201 01 202201 01 202201 01 2022 202112 31 BlackBerry OS 202112 31 202112 31 21 202112 31 KLMAG2GEUF-B04QKLMBG2JETD-B041 202112 31 202112 31 202112 31 2021 202112 31 5G 202112 31 5G 202112 31 BlackBerr

29、y OSiOS 202112 31 202112 31 51000 13 202112 31 A 202112 31 111.6 3.9% 202112 31 202112 31 103365 40 50% 202112 31 202112 31 202112 30 202112 30 202112 30 iPhone 13 Proedge X302999 202112 30 99% 202112 30 Ofweek 500CEO 202112 30 1 202112 30 11 202112 30 Ofweek 漶C1 202112 30 12iPhone 202112 30 3 20211

30、2 30 202112 30 5G 202112 30 飬 202112 30 2021 202112 30 202112 30 籨 202112 30 15 202112 30 ? 202112 30 2021 200 202112 30 5G AIoT 202112 30 202112 30 21 202112 30 202112 30 棨 202112 30 5G+ 202112 30 DPU? 202112 30 202112 29 100 202112 29 202112 29 36 202112 29 ZAKER 12 202112 29 IT 2022 mini LED 6.5

31、202112 29 35G5G 202112 29 嫴 202112 29 豸 202112 29 iPhone裨 202112 29 202112 29 庮籣 202112 29 2022 202112 29 12 realme 202112 29 衰 202112 29 DPU 202112 29 AR93 202112 29 iPhone 14 8GB棬A16 202112 29 塱滮 20% 202112 29 2021 202112 29 202112 29 塱滮 202112 29 2025500 202112 29 2025500 202112 29 6.76 202112 28

32、 202112 28 202112 28 2021 IC950 202215% 14 202112 28 202112 28 TechWeb T3 202112 28 202112 28 塱滮 202112 28 塱 20% 202112 28 蹵 5G 202112 28 RunnerPro3饗 202112 28 202112 28 202112 28 峧 202112 28 12 Pro5 202112 28 2021棨 202112 28 Ofweek 50 202112 28 Windows 11Bug 202112 28 128 202112 28 3c 202112 28 202

33、112 28 202112 28 5G饗 202112 28 8 12 202112 28 2021 202112 28 202112 28 EDA 202112 28 202112 28 202112 28 202112 27 CINNO LGDiPhone 146.06LTPS壨 202112 27 202112 27 2022 2025 202112 27 20215G 202112 27 桱 202112 27 鱨 2022 202112 27 OPPOReno7Find NK9 202112 27 202112 27 202112 27 洫1200iPhone 202112 27 R

34、obert Castellano2022(MU.US)(AMD.US) 202112 27 202112 27 TechWeb Razr 202112 27 OLED22 202112 27 202112 27 202112 27 Bianews 6G 202112 27 5 5G棨 202112 27 5G棨 202112 27 202112 27 202112 27 P50 202112 27 2022 15 19 2021-12-28 鷲 https:/ 2021-12-28 https:/ 2021-12-28 2021鷲 https:/ 2021-12-28 2021 https:/

35、 2021-12-28 https:/ 2021-12-28 https:/ 2021-12-28 鷲 https:/ 2021-12-28 鷲 https:/ 2021-12-28 https:/ 2021-12-28 2021 https:/ 2021-12-28 https:/ 2021-12-28 2021鷲 https:/ 2021-12-29 https:/ 2021-12-28 https:/ 2021-12-28 2021 https:/ 2021-12-28 https:/ 2021-12-28 鷲 https:/ 2021-12-28 鷲 https:/ 2021-12-28 2021鷲 https:/ 2021-12-29 https:/ 2021-12-29 1% https:/ 2021-12-29 https:/ 2021-12-29 https:/ 2021-12-29 https:/ 2021-12-29 https:/ 16 1. 硣 2. 3. 4. 5G 5G 5G 5G巢