1、www.h2cn.orgE4tech1.2.201713802020207005COVID-192018 202520182019462020202030229 iv 01 02 03 051 08 09 11 132 19 20 21 25 273 30 31 50 54 584 63 64 66 67 71 73 iiiiv1.5Hydrogen,Scaling up354060TCO145305/10907020202030901 TCOv/60300407070203022352030222215203020303592030vi20307002030702002030CCS20306
2、0300203017052019300618vii1204570400/20807020011101021.52019662050252025GHG200526 282 2030203 6080PV20/20301420252015552 20193 Qi,Y.Stern,N.He,J.Lu,J.King,D.Liu,T.Wu,T.201803GDP70182030FCEV1,00010,000201713601.72.642030111.52010GDP12017132050202520152030FCEV201721.182.Hydrogen Scaling up04354023025,0
3、0040205203033TCO4/30/063540Alan FinkelTimur GlTom HellerNo van HulstLord Turner2017205018218H2 MobilityH2 MobilityHRS400202020020234002022310201910-10-102020 20301,00010,000,2203032050360710010-10-10CCS202030/203050/1 0808091354604100%=37 Gt/LCVMDT-CCU202020501 1022203055Y221517,5002030CCSCCS5X100/5
4、CCS111./11520306201761CCS+/1.CCS)()20231 12CCS902020 20252030203020502205090%CCS+CCS1378070720202030,120201.50/50193581711PEM913PEM1 14PEMPEM308/1.50/50507511525030020202010PEM20102020PEM1013 20181592030459502.5+407020BEV21/20607020451860107060111 166080%252001,000706/2.6/5+CCS20301,2001 2/CCS5 1051
5、07080LCOE1 1.50/2 3/9132030400/7017/102030101./2.20302/1.9/3/2/IHS2.50/820301.80/152030205018CCSCCSCCS1.5/CCS3 41 18/CCS10112/11 21/4/6/20301./2.IHS20306/20301520304/5019192 20260+CCS704.50 6/6/5CCS1201550/+CCS4 PEMPEM4 BinderM.KrausslerM.KubaM.Luisser,M.201821+CCSSMRATRSMR6090ATR95SMRATR/ATRATR+CCS
6、3/MMBtuLCOE20/+CCS1.5/50+CCS20251.20/2020+CCS2.10/CCS20301.80/20202.50/20251.90/20301.20/20302 2220206/2030602.50/12+CCS22050204012/2320106010 15/4 6/20306013131.4000Nm3/h20PEM2.1/906029020306570257/33/15/10/504400 H21251020203060 802 24128010020302/0.50/203064 68700.400.2020307040401.30/20301.40145
7、00/20/2/145/20302/2-3/3-4/4/5 BoP25/EPC65/2510 20+CCS0.20 0.30/0.10/6202520307+CCSSMR/ATR60/2.10/LNG6 107 Equinor20192 2660/LH2NH3LOHC202015/20301.7/160110 50/500/1515152030/1LNG-USD 12/MWhLH2-USD 60/MWh1.271 2/203050123GH23004002 28607020305/16 161.2.3./322311 29300 5000.10 0.20/0.50/1000.10/708020
8、205 6/20301 1.50/2.00/1.00/0.80/3 303031317202520303 3217A/B200C/D400E+-650150-6001BEV/3318/2030A/BJE+1820256505006030020304003520020403020303/3 34192025/20252025 25203030155020309035MEA10BoP2045607015203076055702.25157.5214010 12/604.50 5/20205 6/20301 1.50/3 367.5300LCV13500MDT22.5600HDT20/LCV MDT
9、 HDT2030 376045202025600 960200 25013045/203020301520202020308060502020810/203045/3070SUV103 38202020301.21570801/6065()202025203015150,0006010,00050357070707090FCEBBEB1504505003921/2030 4002120252030203020503 4021102512402,50027025045/4002,50065100 110/2302020802,5005026065510412212022/1,000/0.0120
10、 7020206,00020302,0003 42202012010024202423410012030301501215/1.4323485035101535246040502030203020304.50/6 7/3 4424/20302*810ICE 2420233.50/3012102030202050301004220201530203010452020203045703.1574736039.98200.50/1.20 1.5092.00 2.30/8 20189 Pavlenko,N.Searle,S.Christensen,A.20193 462520301.50/2.70/1
11、.80/20301.50/120203090/300102001.00/601501125/2030 10Breyer,C.201911 2019A4730/16020304090202020304020800501002.58.2512IMO205050132627RoPax/2100203012 201913 20193 48420302035RoPax2030RoPax80 15050 10026500152030/4927/4202030 2030902.4/3.5/-252.87-33.63 50118EJ86.714282030-80-20-32CO22030/10/11.102.
12、/3.9014 2019B2017512030900 1600285.4/3/291/29/1.2.3.203023 H213 528030505.678380300803050+2+5+3002/1.1017.6/502.480/600.528/CCSCO2CCS H215320510 1832 5833020FC CHP/1207.518+1.9/2030312,7001,8003121.We30802.187.51,000/2H2-CHP1CO2 H212014SGC 3 54/1.10/507/100/100100 400400+CCSCCSCCS5532203080905020301
13、.10/100/1.50/2 3/321.2030ATRCCS1.06/1.68/1.82/2.0.10/3.0.12/4.0.31/5.0.39/CO21004CO2504CO2503/CO2504CO2502+CCSCO2502CO21002123 5650152-4300CCS163/140/0.30/P2G2P453380172030103025/501.70/0.30/2.00/100 200/6010025200/P2G2P15 201916 17 201857331/CO2502/1.2030ATRCCS1.1/1.7/1.8/2.0.12/3.0.31/25%210040%50
14、60756500800CO21003CO250320302030/7003 58125402030306.00/20303/200/203070501020402020203090901818 2019.59H2-DRI120501.75080%SMR2.519 70207300/CCSMMBtus2.50240/0.700.90/3450/1.20 1.30/3/MMBtu7/MMbtuSMR19 201920193 60370/1.40 1.50/50/1.70 1.80/7/MMBtu200/690/3/SMR534/7.0/MMBtu+CO2e 2002.5/MMBtu7.0/MMBt
15、u7.0/MMBtu+CO2e 50/2.5/MMBtu+CO2e500.801.50/50/0.100.20/7061CCS150CCU30-25%35702/1001502002/450/0.65/20791.8212030H2-DRICCSH2-DRI90HISarna90CCS1.80 2.3020 2019A21 2019B3 62/HISarna901.20 1.60/50/1.60/200/H2-DRI2.30/2030100/H2-DRI+CCS+CCS+CCSCCS63634 64420303570200+CCS20306030020306001006520171.85201
16、928010020166006035203020302030CO25070 GW10 Mtpa20,0003m6m115 Twh3635450020302.5202720304 66367000FCBEVXXX,000XXX,000450018672030502050/3737“”40“”-4 68/12045697040+CCS+CCS+CCS4 707071ATAGATRBECCSBEVBOFBTX/CHPCCGTCCPCCSCCUCCUSDoEDRIEAFEIAEUFCFCEVGHGHDVHVOICELDV72LPGMHEMMBTu1 MMBTU=1.06 GJNOxNGPEMRERNG
17、SMRSOxSUVTCOTW/GW/MW/kW1=1 J/sTWh/MWh/kWh1=3,600 JZEV732018 2016100250 BinderM.,KrausslerM.,KubaM.,Luisser,M.2018IEA:33 2019 https:/ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/advanced-clean-trucks2019 2017Equinor2019 https:/ 9802019A https:/www.iea.org/statistics/co2emissions/2019B 2019 http:/www.iipinetwork.
18、org/wp-content/Ietd/content/ammonia.html2019 http:/www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/HotTopics/GHG/Pages/default.aspx2014 2019A 2019B2019 https:/www.irena.org/publications/2019/Jul/Renewable-energy-statistics-201974201920192019 https:/ https:/ Gas NetworksEquinor,Cadent2018H21 https:/www.h21.green/projects
19、/downloads/Searle,S.Christensen,A.2019 2019 Qi,Y.Stern,N.He,J.Lu,J.King,D.Liu,T.Wu,T.2018-https:/www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Chinas-Peaking-Emissions-and-the-Future-of-Global-Climate-Policy.pdfWei,M.2018 150C329-341SGC.2014/Ship&Bunker.20192019104 https:/ Markit2015 research-development-and-222019http:/www.usclimatealliance.org/alliance-principles2019A https:/www.worldsteel.org/about-steel/steel-facts.html2019B https:/www.worldsteel.org/publications/position-papers/steel-s-contribution-to-a-low-carbon-future.html