明源云-領先的垂直SaaS企業首予“收集”評級-220818（20頁）.pdf

1、 See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 20 Equity Research Equity Research Report Company Report 股股票票研研究究 公公司司報報告告 證證券券研研究究報報告告 計算機行業計算機行業 Computer Sector 明源云明源云 Ming Yuan Cloud(00909 HK)Company Report:Ming Yuan Cloud(00909 HK)Daniel Tao 陶選(86755)2397 6885 公司報告：明源云(00909 HK).hk 18 August 2022 Le

2、ading Vertical SaaS Company;Initiate With Accumulate 領先的垂直SaaS企業，首予“收集”評級 Ming Yuan Cloud(the Company)has been deeply engaged in the digitalization of the real estate industry chain for many years and its grasp of the industry pain points,strong product capabilities as well as widespread sales netwo

3、rk have built its competitiveness.Due to the low degree of digitalization of Chinas real estate market and the Companys expansion into the industrial development field,Ming Yuan Cloud will have more room to exert its capabilities than previously expected.We expect SaaS(Software-as-a-Service)products

4、 revenue to increase steadily.Healthy development in the future needs more sophisticated digital management and we believe that at this stage,the real estate industry is only changing to a more sustainable development model.In the long run,with the end of the land expansion era,future property devel

5、opers will certainly focus more on the quality of operation.The Companys SaaS products cover almost of the essential aspects of real estate projects,such as material procurement,construction and sales.Digital technology and products enable enterprises to achieve the purpose of efficient operation an

6、d wise decision-making.We estimate the Companys SaaS products revenue in 2022-2024 to increase yoy by 29.8%/21.6%/22.5%,respectively.These projections primarily account for the increasing ARPU of SaaS products and also the current weakened fundamentals in the real estate industry.We initiate with a

7、rating of Accumulate and a target price of HK$7.71,representing 5.0 x,4.4x and 3.8x 2022-2024 PSR.明源云（“公司”）多年深耕房地產產業鏈數字化，對行業痛點的把握明源云（“公司”）多年深耕房地產產業鏈數字化，對行業痛點的把握、強大的產品能力強大的產品能力和廣泛的銷售網絡構筑起公司的競爭力。和廣泛的銷售網絡構筑起公司的競爭力。由于中國房地產市場數字化程度較低，加上公司拓展業務到產業開發領域，明源云可以施展能力的空間將超預期。我們預計公司我們預計公司 SaaS（軟件即服務）（軟件即服務）產品收入將產品收

8、入將穩步穩步增長。增長。房地產行業未來的健康發展需要更加精細化的數字化管理，我們認為現階段房地產只是向可持續發展的模式轉變。長期來看，隨著比拼拿地擴張的時代結束，未來房地產開發商必然會重點關注經營的質量。公司的 SaaS 產品覆蓋房地產項目從材料采購到建造再到銷售的重要環節。公司的數字化技術和產品能很好地幫助房企達到高效經營和明智決策的目的。我們預測公司的我們預測公司的 SaaS 產品產品收入收入在在 2022 到到 2024 年將分別同比增長年將分別同比增長 29.8%/21.6%/22.5%，主要反映公司 SaaS 產品不斷提升的 ARPU 值以及目前房地產行業偏弱的基本面。我們首次覆蓋明

9、源云并給予我們首次覆蓋明源云并給予 7.71 港元的目標價以及“收集”的投資評級港元的目標價以及“收集”的投資評級，目標價對應 5.0倍、4.4 倍和 3.8 倍 2022-2024 年市銷率。Rating:Accumulate Initial 評級：收集收集 (首次覆蓋)6-18m TP 目標價:HK$7.71 Revised from 原目標價:Share price 股價：HK$6.120 Stock performance 股價表現 Change in Share Price 股價變動 1 M 1 個月 3 M 3 個月 1 Y 1 年 Abs.%絕對變動%-23.0-34.2-78.

10、3 Rel.%to HS Index 相對恒指變動%-18.6-30.7-55.4 Avg.share price（HK$）平均股價（港元）7.1 9.3 16.7 Source:Bloomberg,Guotai Junan International.Table_Year End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE 年結 收入 股東凈利 每股凈利 每股凈利變動 市盈率 每股凈資產 市凈率 每股股息 股息率 凈資產收益率 12/31(RMB m)(RMB m)(RMB)(%)(x)(RMB)(x)(RMB)(%)(%)20

11、20A 1,705(704)(0.480)(396.3)(10.7)3.525 1.5 0.069 1.3(20.7)2021A 2,184(344)(0.185)n.a.(27.0)3.166 1.6 0.055 1.1(5.5)2022F 2,443(77)(0.041)n.a.(126.9)3.070 1.7 0.010 0.2(1.3)2023F 2,772 93 0.050 n.a.104.0 3.129 1.7 0.012 0.2 1.6 2024F 3,176 177 0.095 90.0 54.8 3.212 1.6 0.023 0.4 3.0 Shares in issue(

12、m)總股數(m)1,952.5 Major shareholder 大股東 Mr.Gao,Mr.Chen and Mr.Jiang 44.7%Market cap.(HK$m)市值(HK$m)11,949.3 Free float(%)自由流通比率(%)55.3 3 month average vol.3 個月平均成交股數(000)9,242.1 FY22 Net gearing(%)FY22 凈負債/股東資金(%)Net Cash 52 Weeks high/low(HK$)52 周高/低(HK$)32.900/6.020 FY22 Est.NAV(HK$)FY22 每股估值（港元）9.8

13、Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.(90.0)(80.0)(70.0)(60.0)(50.0)(40.0)(30.0)(20.0)(10.0)0.0 10.0 20.0 Aug-21Nov-21Feb-22May-22Aug-22%of returnHSI IndexMing Yuan Cloud Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 20 18 August 2022 Ming Yuan Cloud 明源云(00909 HK)Table_PageHeader

14、 Ming Yuan Cloud(00909 HK)Table of Contents 1.Earnings Forecasts and Valuation.3 1.1 Earnings Forecasts.3 1.2 Valuation.5 2.Real Estate:Challenging Environment but Still a Crucial Component of the Economy.7 2.1 End of the Property Boom Era.7 3.1 The Real Estate Industry is Still Important and is Bra

15、cing for Transformation.9 3.Ming Yuan Cloud-No.1 in the Industry;Trailblazer of Digital Transformation.11 3.1 Deeply Devoted to the Real Estate Sector with Comprehensive Product Offerings.11 3.2 R&D Investment and Widespread Sales Network Helped Build Its Economic Moat.16 Key Risks.18 Financial Stat

16、ements and Ratios.19 wUkV8VlX7UpPoOtMbRcM9PmOmMmOsQiNpPzRfQmNwP9PmNoOMYsOqOxNrQmR Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 3 of 20 18 August 2022 Ming Yuan Cloud 明源云(00909 HK)Table_PageHeader Ming Yuan Cloud(00909 HK)1.Earnings Forecasts and Valuation 1.1 Earnings Forecasts We forecast M

17、ing Yuan Clouds(the Company)revenue in 2022-2024 to be RMB2,443 million,RMB2,772 million and RMB3,176 million,respectively,representing yoy growth of 11.8%,13.5%and 14.6%.Our revenue forecasts are mainly based on the following:1)In 2022,revenue growth of SaaS(Software-as-a-Service)products will slow

18、 down,but SaaS revenue will still be the main revenue source.Since the real estate market has entered an era of deleveraging and debt reduction,the industry may shift its focus from digitalization to maintain normal operation,thus affecting demand for SaaS products.However,given the Companys efforts

19、 to raise ARPU and the Companys entry into the industrial development field,we believe that revenue from SaaS products will continue to grow in 2022.2)We expect the Companys revenue to decline by 8.4%in 1H22,mainly due to the decline in revenue from ERP solutions.In the first half of 2022,combined w

20、ith repeated Covid-19 outbreaks and strict real estate control measures,the digitalization process and project implementation progress of real estate enterprises slowed down significantly.We believe that the ERP solutions business of the Company was greatly affected.However,looking forward to 2H22,w

21、ith the gradual improvement of the domestic epidemic situation and favorable policies in various regions for the real estate industry,we believe that operations of the Company will be largely improved in the second half of the year.3)We expect the number of sales offices equipped with CRM Cloud to i

22、ncrease by 800 and 700 in 2023 and 2024,respectively,and ARPU to increase yoy by 15%and 15%.We believe that the Company will still promote SaaS vigorously and develop excellent products to improve the unit price.4)We expect the number of end users of ERP(Enterprise Resource Planning)solutions to inc

23、rease by 300 and 200 in 2023 and 2024,respectively,and the average annual spending per user to decrease yoy by 17%and 17%.Since ERP is still an indispensable system for enterprises,we believe that the number of customers will continue to go up as the Company expands in lower-tier cities where the gr

24、owth potential is usually attractive but prices tend to be lower.Table-1:Earnings Forecasts for Ming Yuan Cloud RMB mn 2020A 2021A 2022F 2023F 2024F Revenue SaaS Products 871 1,338 1,736 2,112 2,587 YoY 70.9%53.5%29.8%21.6%22.5%-CRM Cloud 669 1,025 1,374 1,651 1,971-Construction Cloud 138 189 193 21

25、5 245 -Procurement Cloud 27 43 62 93 143 -Space Cloud 38 53 77 120 191 Revenue ERP Solutions 834 847 707 660 588 YoY 10.6%1.5%-16.5%-6.6%-10.9%Revenue-Total 1,705 2,184 2,443 2,772 3,176 YoY 34.9%28.1%11.8%13.5%14.6%Gross Profit 1,340 1,751 2,006 2,324 2,720 Gross Profit Margin 78.6%80.2%82.1%83.8%8

26、5.6%Operating Profit 326-627-182 1 92 Operating Margin 19.1%-28.7%-7.5%0.0%2.9%Shareholders net profit-704-344-77 93 177 Net Margin-41.3%-15.7%-3.1%3.3%5.6%Adjusted net income(Non-IFRS)383 307 362 317 294 Adjusted net margin(Non-IFRS)22.4%14.1%14.8%11.4%9.3%Basic EPS(RMB)-0.48 -0.18 -0.04 0.05 0.09

27、Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 4 of 20 18 August 2022 Ming Yuan Cloud 明源云(00909 HK)Table_PageHeader Ming Yuan Cloud(00909 HK)Table-2:Key Revenue Assumptions Segment 2020A 2021A 2022F 2023F 2024F SaaS Products -CRM Cloud Number of pr

28、operty sales office with CRM Cloud 15,000 16,600 17,800 18,600 19,300 ARPU(RMB000)44.6 61.8 77.2 88.8 102.1 -Construction Cloud Number of construction sites with Construction Cloud 4,100 7,500 8,500 9,300 10,000 ARPU(RMB 000)33.5 25.2 22.7 23.2 24.5 -Procurement Cloud YoY 58.5%60.5%45.0%50.0%55.0%-S

29、pace Cloud YoY 44.1%39.2%45.0%55.0%60.0%ERP Solutions Number of paying end group customers 2,000 2,300 2,400 2,700 2,900 Average Annual Spending per Customer(RMB 000)417 368 295 244 203 Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.We forecast net profit/(loss)attributable to ordinary shareholders i

30、n 2022-2024 to be RMB(77)million,RMB93 million and RMB177 million,respectively,improving by RMB267 million,RMB169 million in 2022 and 2023,and increasing by 90.9%yoy in 2024;corresponding net margins forecasts are(-3.1%),3.3%and 5.6%,respectively.Our forecasts are based on the following reasons:1)We

31、 forecast that the overall gross margin of the Company will increase by 1.7 ppt in 2022,of which the gross margin of SaaS products will increase by 0.3 ppt and the gross margin of ERP solutions will decrease by 3.3 ppt,mainly reflecting the increase in ARPU of SaaS customers and the decrease in the

32、price of ERP solutions for expanding in the lower-tier cities.The driving force for the increase in overall gross margin is the increase in the revenue share of SaaS products.We expect that the overall gross profit margin of the Company will increase steadily from 2023 to 2024.2)We estimate selling

33、and marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue to remain at about 39%-40%for 2022-2024,mainly because development of SaaS products requires high sales investment.3)We estimate that R&D expenses as a percentage of revenue for 2022-2024 will stay around 30%,mainly because the Company still needs to

34、 continuously invest in R&D resources to maintain competitiveness.Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 5 of 20 18 August 2022 Ming Yuan Cloud 明源云(00909 HK)Table_PageHeader Ming Yuan Cloud(00909 HK)1.2 Valuation We consider 2022-2024 PSR of 5.0 x,4.4x and 3.8x for Ming Yuan Cloud,equi

35、valent to a target price of HK$7.71 and set our investment rating as Accumulate.The Company is a pioneer in digitalization in the real estate industry.In recent years,revenue from SaaS products has increased rapidly,surpassing that of ERP solutions to become the main revenue source.In combination wi

36、th the growth potential brought by the low digitalization rate of Chinese property developers,upstream and downstream digitalization opportunities brought by the complexity of the real estate industry chain,and the incremental increase in space brought by the Companys entry into the industrial devel

37、opment market,as well as the Companys deep understanding of real estate accumulated through years of deep cultivation in the industry,we believe that the Company still has potential to grow.However,despite that favorable policies are being introduced,we are concerned to some extent about the weakene

38、d fundamentals of the real estate industry as the industry is struggling to change.Based on the above reasons,compared with the PSR of comparable companies of similar size on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on August 18 2022,we give the Company a 2022 PSR of 5.0 x.Table-3:Peers Comparison Company Ticke

39、r Currency Last Price PE(x)PS(x)PB Market Cap 22F 23F 24F 22F 23F 24F 22F Local Currency(mn)HK Listed Companies Ming Yuan Cloud 00909 HK HKD 6.120 105.5 33.1 21.9 4.3 3.5 2.8 1.7 11,949 Kingdee 00268 HK HKD 16.440 n.a.n.a.382.3 9.7 7.7 6.2 6.6 57,127 Bc Technology 00863 HK HKD 3.580 n.a.n.a.23.6 2.9

40、 1.9 1.3 1.4 1,528 Kingsoft 03888 HK HKD 25.050 44.3 27.2 24.6 3.7 3.1 2.6 1.1 34,234 China Youzan 08083 HK HKD 0.145 n.a.n.a.n.a.1.9 1.6 1.4 0.2 2,671 Inspur International 00596 HK HKD 2.500 16.1 9.4 6.0 0.6 0.4 0.4 1.2 2,855 Tencent 00700 HK HKD 303.200 22.8 18.4 15.4 4.4 3.8 3.4 2.8 2,916,239 Yea

41、hka 09923 HK HKD 15.780 14.1 10.4 8.2 1.5 1.1 0.9 1.6 7,131 Simple Average 40.6 19.7 68.9 3.6 2.9 2.4 2.1 Weighted Average 23.3 18.5 22.4 4.4 3.9 3.4 2.8 Mainland China Listed Companies Glodon 002410 CH CNY 49.520 59.9 44.2 35.0 8.6 7.1 5.8 9.1 58,965 Beijing Thunisoft 300271 CH CNY 7.180 29.9 16.0

42、12.8 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.8 5,920 Yonyou 600588 CH CNY 21.180 101.8 68.3 47.5 6.8 5.6 4.5 7.2 72,729 Shanghai Baosight 600845 CH CNY 39.100 32.0 24.3 18.8 4.7 3.7 2.9 7.2 69,342 Zhewen Interactive 600986 CH CNY 6.250 20.8 16.8 15.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.9 8,265 Guotai Epoint 688232 CH CNY 46.130 23.1 17.0 12.4 4.3

43、 3.3 2.6 2.6 15,223 Simple Average 44.6 31.1 23.6 3.4 3.6 2.9 4.8 Weighted Average 60.1 42.3 31.3 5.3 4.9 4.0 7.1 US Listed Companies Adobe ADBE US USD 447.560 33.1 28.2 24.5 11.9 10.4 9.2 13.8 209,458 Mongodb MDB US USD 374.420 n.a.n.a.1,173.7 29.9 21.3 16.3 37.9 25,504 Microsoft MSFT US USD 292.71

44、0 30.2 28.4 24.3 9.7 9.8 8.6 13.1 2,183,000 Snowflake SNOW US USD 167.350 n.a.1,072.8 467.5 67.9 26.3 17.4 10.2 53,234 Cloudflare NET US USD 77.800 2,222.9 827.7 370.5 26.2 19.3 14.0 44.0 25,476 Salesforce CRM US USD 189.590 125.6 39.9 33.1 8.4 5.9 5.1 3.2 188,642 Veeva Systems VEEV US USD 229.550 8

45、2.3 55.2 47.9 19.6 16.4 14.0 11.0 35,545 Servicenow NOW US USD 496.740 67.9 53.7 42.9 13.7 11.1 8.9 20.2 100,341 Workday WDAY US USD 177.790 1,481.6 51.4 39.2 12.2 7.3 6.1 9.8 45,101 Zoom ZM US USD 109.190 23.5 29.0 27.6 11.2 7.2 6.4 5.6 32,580 Simple Average 508.4 242.9 225.1 21.1 13.5 10.6 16.9 We

46、ighted Average 81.7 57.2 47.4 11.5 10.2 8.7 13.0 Overall Average 197.8 97.9 105.9 9.4 6.6 5.3 7.9 Overall Weighted Average 55.0 39.3 33.7 7.1 6.3 5.4 7.6 Source:Bloomberg.Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 6 of 20 18 August 2022 Ming Yuan Cloud 明源云(00909 HK)Table_PageHeader Ming Yu

47、an Cloud(00909 HK)Figure-1:Ming Yuan Clouds Historical PS Graph Figure-2:Ming Yuan Clouds Historical PB Graph Source:Bloomberg.Source:Bloomberg.051015202530354045Average-1 SD+1 SD-50050100150200Average-1 SD+1 SD Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 7 of 20 18 August 2022 Ming Yuan Cl

48、oud 明源云(00909 HK)Table_PageHeader Ming Yuan Cloud(00909 HK)-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021Commercial Housing SalesYoY GrowthRMB bnRMB bn2.Real Estate:Challenging En

49、vironment but Still a Crucial Component of the Economy 2.1 End of the Property Boom Era The real estate industry has accumulated financial problems after years of rapid development.As a major element in Chinas economic composition and a core part of society,with the issuance of The Notice on Further

50、 Deepening the Reform of Urban Housing System and Accelerating Housing Construction by the State Council in 1998,the real estate market embarked on a fast track of development through land dividends and capital influx.Annual investment in real estate increased from RMB498.4 billion in 2000 to RMB14,

51、760.2 billion in 2021(CAGR of 17.5%),and the sales of commercial housing increased from RMB393.5 billion in 2000 to RMB18,193.0 billion in 2021(CAGR of 20.0%).However,during the course of the past prosperity and development of the real estate industry,the model of high debt,high leverage and high tu

52、rnover of property developers buried hidden troubles.Many large enterprises amassed high debt,such as Sunac China,whose net debt ratio reached about 172.3%in 2019,resulting in implementation of strict regulation.Figure-3:Real Estate Investment Has Been Growing Fast Figure-4:Fast-Growing Commercial H

53、ousing Sales Source:NBS,Guotai Junan International.Source:NBS,Guotai Junan International.The era of extensive development in real estate has ended.In 2016,apartment prices were at a high level.The central economic work conference first proposed that housing was for living and not for speculation,whi

54、ch set the main tone for subsequent development of the real estate market.On September 1,2020,the Peoples Bank of China(PBC)and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development launched a policy to restrict financing of property developers,that is,the so-called three red lines,which was first pil

55、oted in 12 real estate enterprises and implemented throughout the industry on January 1,2021.The specific provisions of the three red lines are as follows:(1)the liability-to-asset ratio after excluding advance receipts shall not be greater than 70%;(2)the net gearing ratio shall not be greater than

56、 100%;and(3)the cash-to-short-term debt ratio shall not be less than 1x.According to these three rules,real estate enterprises in different financial conditions are divided into four categories:(1)red category,that is,violating all three provisions,resulting in no increase in the scale of interest b

57、earing liabilities;(2)orange,which is in violation of two of the provisions,the annual increase in the scale of interest bearing liabilities shall not exceed 5%;(3)yellow,that is,only one of the provisions is violated,the growth rate of interest bearing liabilities shall not exceed 10%;and(4)green g

58、rade,that is,without violating any regulations,the growth rate of interest bearing liabilities shall not exceed 15%.The introduction of the three red lines has changed the development environment of the whole industry.The previous ways of borrowing heavily for development and debt repayment will no

59、longer exist.Real estate enterprises will focus on:fast delivery of projects,improving the efficiency of sales collection,cost control,realizing positive cash flow of operations,and thereby striving to enter the green category.0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,000200120

60、03200520072009201120132015201720192021Real Estate InvestmentYoY GrowthRMB bnRMB bn Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 8 of 20 18 August 2022 Ming Yuan Cloud 明源云(00909 HK)Table_PageHeader Ming Yuan Cloud(00909 HK)-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%0510152025VankePoly DevelopmentChina Mer

61、chants ShekouSunac ChinaContracted Sales GFA for 1H21Contracted Sales GFA for 1H22M mnTable-4:Breaching the Rules Will Make It More Difficult for Property Developers to Borrow Category Number of Line Breached Consequence Red 3 Interest bearing liabilities shall not be increased Orange 2 The annual g

62、rowth rate of interest bearing liabilities shall not exceed 5%Yellow 1 The annual growth rate of interest bearing liabilities shall not exceed 10%Green 0 The annual growth rate of interest bearing liabilities shall not exceed 15%Source:Sohu News,Guotai Junan International.With the pandemic outbreak

63、and changing financial regulation,the real estate industry is facing challenges.In 2021,the three red lines was implemented throughout the industry.Coupled with the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy,various indicators in the real estate industry began to go down:as at June 2022,accumula

64、ted investment in real estate development was RMB6,831.4 billion,a yoy decrease of 5.4%.Accumulated sales of commercial housing began to show fatigue in February this year and started to slip:as at June,market data showed a sharp yoy decrease of 28.9%to RMB6,607.2 billion.In terms of real estate ent

65、erprises,the top enterprises in the industry reported their declining performance for the first half of 2022:Sunac China/Vanke/China Merchants Shekou/Poly Development demonstrated yoy decrease of 61.2%/41.1%/36.7%/21.8%in contracted sales gross floor area(GFA).Figure-5:Slowing Investment in Real Est

66、ate Figure-6:Slowing Commercial Housing Sales Source:NBS,Guotai Junan International.Source:NBS,Guotai Junan International.Figure-7:Top Property Developers Reported Sluggish Results Source:the Companies,Guotai Junan International.-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,

67、00016,0002020-072020-082020-092020-102020-112020-122021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-06Cumulative Real Estate Development InvestmentYoY GrowthRMB bnRMB bn-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%02,0004,0006,0008,

68、00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,0002020-072020-082020-092020-102020-112020-122021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-06Cumulative Commercial Housing SalesYoY GrowthRMB bn Company Report See the last page for disc

69、laimer Page 9 of 20 18 August 2022 Ming Yuan Cloud 明源云(00909 HK)Table_PageHeader Ming Yuan Cloud(00909 HK)3.1 The Real Estate Industry is Still Important and is Bracing for Transformation In the long run,Chinas urbanization will continue to develop and real estate will still be a key component of th

70、e economy.According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics,national GDP in 2021 was RMB114.4 trillion with 8.1%yoy increase,of which the real estate industry was RMB7.8 trillion with 5.2%yoy increase,accounting for 6.8%of the GDP and contributing 4.5%to the GDP growth.Its share in the GDP is

71、 just behind the manufacturing industry(27.4%),wholesale and retail industry(9.7%),finance industry(8.0%),agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery(7.6%)and construction industry(7.0%),making it the sixth largest industry.Combining the construction industry,which is highly related to real es

72、tate industry,the total of the two industries accounted for about 13.8%of 2021 GDP,and the contribution to the economy was second only to the manufacturing industry.The whole industrial chain of the real estate industry is highly complex;the upstream and downstream industries involve construction,st

73、eel,cement,home decoration and other industries.Therefore,we believe that real estate will still be crucial to economic development.Macroeconomic regulation will bring pain in the short term,but it will lead the industry to more sustainable development in the long term.In addition,compared with othe

74、r countries with high urbanization level(approx.80%),Chinas urbanization rate was 64.7%in 2021,and there is still space for growth.With continuous population flow to cities,demand for housing will be promoted.Figure-8:Real Estate Is An Important Part of GDP Figure-9:China Still Has Room for Urbaniza

75、tion Source:NBS,Guotai Junan International.Source:World Bank,NBS,Wind,Guotai Junan International.The successive release of favorable policies will alleviate worries of the real estate market to a certain extent.Since the second half of 2021,the Chinese central government has introduced several favor

76、able policies at macro and financial levels.For example,on the financial level,the PBC and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission encouraged banking institutions to focus on supporting the M&A of high-quality real estate enterprises in December 2021,and in January 2022,for debt type a

77、cquisitions of risk-exposed enterprise projects,relevant M&A loans were no longer included in the three red lines;at the macro level,on March 16,2022,the Financial Stability and Development Committee of the State Council held a special meeting which mentioned that real estate enterprises should stud

78、y and put forward effective solutions to prevent and resolve risks,and put forward supporting measures for the transformation to the new development model.In July 2022,the meeting of the National Peoples Congress once again mentioned that the real estate industry should guarantee the rigid demand fo

79、r housing and reasonably support the demand for improvement.Local authorities are also actively introducing policies based on local conditions.According to data published by 58 Anjuke Research Institute,in 2022,the frequency of issuance of preferential policies carried out by local authorities has i

80、ncreased from 25 times in January to 90 times in June,reaching a peak of 147 times in May.We believe that as an important engine for economic development,the real estate industry will continue to play an important role.0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%020406080100120140200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112

81、012201320142015201620172018201920202021GDPRea Estate as%of GDPRMBRMB tntn0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021ChinaSouth Koreathe U.S.Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 10 of 20 18 August 20

82、22 Ming Yuan Cloud 明源云(00909 HK)Table_PageHeader Ming Yuan Cloud(00909 HK)Table-5:Favorable Policies Have Been Continuously Released Date Policy and Conference 20 December 2021 Banking financial institutions should follow the principles of compliance with laws and regulations,controllable risks,and

83、sustainable business operations in a safe and orderly manner to carry out M&A loan business for real estate projects,focusing on supporting high-quality real estate enterprises in mergers and acquisitions with high-quality projects of large real estate enterprises with difficulties.06 January 2022 F

84、or debt-based acquisitions of risk-exposed enterprise projects,relevant M&A loans are no longer included in the three red lines.20 January 2022 The central bank announced an LPR of 4.60%for maturities over 5 years,down 5 basis points.25 February 2022 The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee

85、 held a meeting to firmly implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand and promote coordinated regional development and new urbanization 16 March 2022 The Financial Stability and Development Committee of the State Council held a special meeting to study the current economic situation and capi

86、tal market issues.As for real estate enterprises,it mentioned that to timely study and put forward effective solutions to prevent and resolve risks,and put forward supporting measures for the transformation to a new development model.23 March 2022 The heads of 12 banks and insurance institutions und

87、er the jurisdiction of the Guangdong banking and insurance regulatory bureau made a special speech and said that in the near future,the financial services of new citizens should be continuously optimized,effectively meet the reasonable credit needs of new citizens,and continue to increase the financ

88、ial support for affordable housing such as rental housing.29 April 2022 The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to support regions to improve their real estate policies based on local conditions.04 May 2022 The CSRC mentioned to actively support the bond financing of real es

89、tate enterprises and study and expand the pilot scope of infrastructure REITs 04 May 2022 The Shenzhen Stock Exchange voiced its support for the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises and allowed high-quality real estate enterprises to expand the channels of bond financing 24 June 202

90、2 The central bank meeting pointed out that it is necessary to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers and better meet the reasonable housing needs of home buyers 22 July 2022 The meeting of National Peoples Congress raised the real estate industry topic again,pointing out

91、 that policies should be based on local condition to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market,protect the rigid demand for housing,and reasonably support the improvement demand Source:58 Anjuke Institute,Guotai Junan International.Figure-10:The Frequency of Introduction o

92、f Favorable Policies Has Been Increasing MoM in 2022 Source:58 Anjuke Institute,Guotai Junan International.The degree of digitalization of the real estate industry is low,and there is great growth opportunity to be seized.With the explosion of data traffic brought by the development of ICT technolog

93、y,traditional IT systems have become increasingly expensive and cumbersome,unable to extract the real value of data,and the related products led by cloud computing are penetrating into various industries.In 2017,the digital economy was mentioned for the first time in the Chinese government report.Di

94、gitalization of to customer(To C)and to business(To B)is both ready for explosive growth.The central economic conference in 2019 clearly stated that China should vigorously develop the digital economy.As one of the economic pillars,the digital level and investment level of the real estate industry s

95、till have room for improvement.The R&D expense rates of the top real estate enterprises are usually below 1.0%.On the other hand,the real estate SaaS product market in China is developing rapidly,from RMB300 million in 2015 to RMB2.1 billion in 2019.According to Frost&Sullivan,the market size of rea

96、l estate SaaS in China will reach RMB15.9 billion by 2024,and the gap between the real estate SaaS market size in the United States and China will be reduced from 11.0 times in 2019 to 4.7 times in 2024.Real estate SaaS products are currently widely used in the sales scenario,however,due to the comp

97、lexity of the real estate industry chain and the implementation of real estate projects,supply,development and construction,marketing and property asset management are all fields where SaaS products 252435611479004080120160200JanFebMarAprMayJun Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 11

98、 of 20 18 August 2022 Ming Yuan Cloud 明源云(00909 HK)Table_PageHeader Ming Yuan Cloud(00909 HK)can play a role.Figure-11:Real Estate Supply Chain Is Highly Complicated with Multiple Participants Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Figure-12:Property Developers R&D Expenses Are Usually A Smal

99、l Portion of Total Revenue Source:Company Annual Reports,Guotai Junan International.3.Ming Yuan Cloud-No.1 in the Industry;Trailblazer of Digital Transformation 3.1 Deeply Devoted to the Real Estate Sector with Comprehensive Product Offerings Ming Yuan Cloud has been deeply engaged in the real estat

100、e industry for nearly 20 years and is the leading figure among competitors.When the Company was founded in 2003(the predecessor of the Company was founded in 1997),it was committed to promoting the digitalization of Chinas real estate industry.It helped the participants in the real estate industry t

101、o operate more efficiently by launching ERP solutions and later SaaS products.The application scenarios of its products cover sales,supply chain,cost and project management,and budget and asset management.Through continuous R&D and sales investment,the Company has formed a comprehensive product libr

102、ary and strong sales network.According to Frost&Sullivan,the Company was the largest software solutions provider for Chinese property developers in 2019,with 18.5%market share,with market share of ERP solutions and SaaS products in their respective markets at 16.6%and 23.3%,both the largest in their

103、 respective markets.0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%2018201920202021VankePolyChina Merchants ShekouCountry Garden Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 12 of 20 18 August 2022 Ming Yuan Cloud 明源云(00909 HK)Table_PageHeader Ming Yuan Cloud(00909 HK)Table-6:Ming Yuan Cloud Has Been Devoted to th

104、e Real Estate Sector for about 20 Years Year Milestone 1997 Launched sales management system.2003 Established Ming Yuan Cloud Technology and launched cost management scheme.2006 Launched ERP solutions for property developers to manage business processes.2008 Set up a national R&D and support center

105、in Wuhan.2009 Founded Ming Yuan Real Estate Research Institute.2011 Fully began management+software+service transformation.2014 Launched CRM Cloud and Procurement Cloud,corresponding to digital marketing scenario and procurement bidding scenario respectively.2015 Upgraded ERP solution to cloud ERP.2

106、017 Launched Space Cloud and Construction Cloud,corresponding to the rental property and real estate construction scenarios respectively.2018 Launched technology leadership and strategically built the Skyline PaaS platform.2019 Served nearly 3,000 property developers,with revenue exceeding RMB1.0 bi

107、llion.2020 Listed on Hong Kong Stock Exchange.2021 Exceeded RMB2.0 billion in revenue.Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Ming Yuan Cloud has comprehensive products,forming SaaS products+PaaS(Platform-as-a-Service)platform+Ecosystem.The Companys core product lines are ERP solutions and Saa

108、S products,as well as the Skyline PaaS platform that underpins both businesses.Among them,ERP solutions aim at the internal business management of property developers,mainly by integrating into their customers own business processes and databases,and optimizing all aspects from procurement to sales.

109、In 2017,the Company launched the cloud version of its ERP solutions,which added better extensibility and flexibility of the products.SaaS products are mainly used for interaction among participants in the real estate industry chain,such as CRM Cloud,which is for communication between sales personnel

110、 and home buyers,Procurement Cloud,which is for connecting developers with material suppliers and other service providers,Construction Cloud,which is for helping developers manage real estate project development and delivery process,and Space Cloud,which is for property operation and lease managemen

111、t with developers and asset management companies.ERP solutions are usually highly customized and come with hardware when companies purchase them.In comparison,SaaS products are more standardized and need much less complicated deployment because it is based on cloud infrastructure which does not requ

112、ire buying additional hardware and thus is more accessible to users.In the pricing model,SaaS also generates continuous revenue flow through subscriptions.In the short term,this model may not be as financially attractive as ERP products with the one-time large payment nature,but in the long term,its

113、 value will be gradually realized because of the accumulation of smaller amount of payments.Ming Yuan Clouds ERP solutions and SaaS products are not completely independent;through the underlying cloud architecture,the capabilities of the two can be integrated to further improve the efficiency of bus

114、iness development.In addition to the above two main products,the Company has also invested in the development of a low code PaaS platform to support the agile development,rapid deployment and subsequent management of software.More importantly,the Company offers this ability to third-party developers

115、 and clients to carry out development work through the PaaS platform,which will in return improve the functions of the Companys products and enrich the Companys ecosystem.Looking back at the history of Salesforce,the global SaaS giant,we can infer the importance of the PaaS platform:its PaaS product

116、 F launched in 2007 and helped customers and other developers to develop applications on the platform,greatly improving the richness and flexibility of their own products.In addition,ISV(Independent Software Vendors)which benefit from the platforms capabilities will also bring more revenue back to t

117、he Company.ERP is transitioning to cloud computing,helping real estate enterprises to operate better.Why do enterprises need ERP systems?The core of ERP is to serve the Companys short-term daily operations and long-term strategic goals.By refining and analyzing the data of every business segment of

118、the Company,it helps employees and management teams to better understand the business,so that they can make wise decisions.Ming Yuan Clouds ERP solutions mainly include software licensing and services.Software licenses are mainly aimed at various operation management modules of the Company.For examp

119、le,for the management team,Ming Yuan Cloud can provide a dashboard to display the business operation status of the enterprise through integrating data from various fields,so as to facilitate decision making;for cost control,the Companys ERP products can cover the entire life cycle of real estate pro

120、jects from the initial budget to payment,and it can also be combined Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 13 of 20 18 August 2022 Ming Yuan Cloud 明源云(00909 HK)Table_PageHeader Ming Yuan Cloud(00909 HK)with the function of Construction Cloud to allow clients to know current constructi

121、on progress and costs;for the sales side,the Companys products can help real estate enterprises track and manage sales objectives,formulate pricing strategies and assist in customer relationship management,etc.,and it can be integrated with the functions of CRM Cloud to realize the connection and ef

122、fective use of sales data.In addition to software licenses,the Company also provides delivery and support services to ensure the normal use of ERP systems and streamline the process for clients to use ERP.Due to the rise in SaaS products and the Companys strategy,the Companys revenue from software l

123、icensing products and value-added services decreased from 27.2%and 20.3%of the total revenue in 2017 to 11.6%and 14.8%in 2021,but they are still the two largest revenue avenues within ERP solutions.Due to the customizability of ERP systems,value-added services play an important role in increasing cu

124、stomer loyalty.The value-added services provided by the Company mainly include:customized system inspection and troubleshooting,customized configuration and development of specific applications,and customized professional technical suggestions.In 2017,the Company launched the cloud version of ERP wh

125、ich gives clients more flexibility.Although the proportion of ERP revenue continues to shrink,we believe that due to business inertia from clients and the contribution of ERP to the Companys profits,ERP will continue to coexist with SaaS products for a long period.Figure-13:The Company Has A Compreh

126、ensive Product Mix Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Table-7:Breakdown of The Companys ERP Solutions Product Function Pricing Model Software Licensing Operations Management Solution Procurement Management Solution Cost Control Solution Project Planning Solution Expenses Management Soluti

127、on Sales Management Solution One-time licensing fees charged for each package of ERP solutions subscribed Implementation services Leveraging the Companys industry expertise in implementation methodology,it assists customers to streamline and expedite the implementation process,maximizing the value p

128、ropositions of its ERP solutions.Service fees charged based on various factors including the type of implementation services selected by end customers,the number of implementation specialists staffed on a given customer project,and the duration of our implementation services Product support services

129、 The Company help customers proactively monitor the ongoing operations of the ERP solutions after their initial implementation and provide tailored product support to ensure their stable and effective operation within customers technology infrastructure.Annual service fees Value-added services The C

130、ompany receives value-added service requests directly from the customers or through its channel partners.A technical team consisting of the technical specialists is then assigned to work on product design to deliver features and functions catering to the customers specific business and operational n

131、eeds.Service fee charged to the end customers,or charged to channel partners in cases where they deploy the Companys technical specialists to deliver such services Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Supply ChainConstruction SiteSales OfficeAsset ManagementProcurement CloudConstruction Clo

132、udCRM CloudSpace CloudProcurementCostPlanExpenseSalesOperation ManagementOperation ManagementSaaS ProductsApplicable ScenarioERP Solutions Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 14 of 20 18 August 2022 Ming Yuan Cloud 明源云(00909 HK)Table_PageHeader Ming Yuan Cloud(00909 HK)Table-8:SaaS

133、Products Are More Standardized Than ERP Solutions Item ERP Solutions SaaS Products Customer Property Developer All relevant participants involved in property development Positioning Comprehensive software solutions focusing on simplifying and optimizing the internal management of property developers

134、 Customizable personal products based on business scenarios,assisting property developers and other industry participants to collaborate with external parties Implementation On-premise or private cloud Cloud infrastructure Customization Generally customized and configured to meet specific customer n

135、eeds Mainly standard products with a certain level of customization Pricing Model Fixed initial license and implementation fees and continuous product support and value-added service fees Various charging models,including subscription fee,implementation fee,etc.,generally collected within the contra

136、ct period Support Continuous Relatively much fewer continuous product support requirements Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.SaaS products have become the main source of revenue and the Company is opening a new chapter in the field of industrial development.In 2011,the Company transforme

137、d its operating model to management+software+service.In 2014,it launched SaaS products,CRM Cloud and Procurement Cloud,and later Construction Cloud and Space Cloud,forming an end-to-end layout focusing on real estate supply chain.In addition to software products,the Company has equipped special inte

138、lligent devices for CRM Cloud and Construction Cloud to provide customers with a better consistent experience.Among them,CRM Cloud is mainly aimed at sales scenarios:it can be used as a multi-channel digital marketing tool,intelligent sales office,and for case field management.From 2019-2021,the num

139、ber of sales offices equipped with CRM Cloud reached 8,700,15,000 and 16,600,respectively,corresponding to average annual spending of RMB40,827,RMB44,594 and RMB61,761 per sales office,showing an upward trend year over year.Construction Cloud is used to manage the construction and transaction of an

140、entire real estate project and cost management,supporting the interaction between developers,contractors,material suppliers and property buyers,to control construction cost while ensuring construction quality.From 2019-2021,2,100,4,100 and 7,500 construction sites were using Construction Cloud servi

141、ces.As a platform for managing the procurement process of developers,Procurement Cloud mainly aims at improving the efficiency and transparency of the material procurement process.Developers who subscribe to this service can access suppliers databases to enable developers to make better purchase dec

142、isions.At the same time,suppliers can also display their products on this platform to achieve a more effective supply process.Space Cloud is mainly used in the downstream of the real estate industry chain,that is,to provide digital tools for real estate asset management companies and property manage

143、ment companies with its main feature of digitalization of asset information.In 2020,the Companys revenue from SaaS products exceeded 50.0%,indicating that SaaS exceeded ERP solutions to become the main revenue source.In 2021,SaaS products accounted for 61.2%,of which CRM Cloud was the main contribut

144、or and accounted for 46.9%.In order to find new revenue growth opportunities,the Company entered the industrial development/operation/service market in 2021,and will use core products such as cloud ERP,Construction Cloud and Space Cloud to explore other areas of Chinas real estate market in addition

145、 to residential housing.According to the Statistical Yearbook of Urban Construction in 2020,the proportion of industrial land including commercial services and industrial storage accounted for 29%of the newly added land in the year,which was close to residential construction(31%).As the degree of di

146、gitalization of industrial development is also relatively at an early stage,and most participants are state-owned enterprises in strong financial condition,we believe this new area will bring sizable growth potential.Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 15 of 20 18 August 2022 Ming Y

147、uan Cloud 明源云(00909 HK)Table_PageHeader Ming Yuan Cloud(00909 HK)Table-9:SaaS Products Cover Almost Every Aspect of Real Estate Projects Product Paying Customers Key Features and Benefits Pricing Model CRM Cloud Property developers An innovative digital marketing and site management tool Provides pr

148、operty developers with enhanced customer acquisition capabilities,increase customer conversion,monetize customer traffic and increase property sales Subscription fees during the term of contract Implementation fee Sales of related smart devices such as smart cameras and PoS terminals Construction Cl

149、oud Property developers and certain construction contractors A comprehensive solution that allows property developers to monitor the complex property construction and delivery process online Enables property developers to streamline the entire property construction and delivery processes and improve

150、 management efficiency Subscription fees during the term of contract Implementation fee Procurement Cloud Property developers,construction materials suppliers and other service vendors An online platform offering various digital tools to enable property developers to manage material procurement proc

151、ess Allows property developers and construction materials suppliers and other service vendors to reduce transaction costs and improve efficiency and transparency of their procurement process Subscription fees during the term of contract Fixed fees for other value-added services such as offline indus

152、try events admissions Space Cloud Property developers;property asset management companies A comprehensive solution focused on facilitating the management and operations of commercial and residential rental properties Digitalizes property asset information,enables efficient and cost-effective propert

153、y operations,and optimizes property portfolio management and investment Subscription fees based on the size of property during the term of contract Implementation fee Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Figure-14:Key Features and Modules of CRM Cloud Source:the Company,Guotai Junan Interna

154、tional.Figure-15:Key Features and Modules of Construction Cloud Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 16 of 20 18 August 2022 Ming Yuan Cloud 明源云(00909 HK)Table_PageHeader Ming Yuan Cloud(00909 HK)3.2 R&D Investment and Widespread Sales Ne

155、twork Helped Build Its Economic Moat SaaS integrates with PaaS to continuously build new products and cultivate an ecosystem for the Company.For vertical SaaS companies,excellent products are half of the Companys success and developing products that make the market buy is a process of commercializin

156、g on the deep understanding of the industry they serve.In 2021,the Companys R&D expenditure was RMB642 million,a yoy increase of 80.5%,representing 29.4%of the total revenue.In the same year,the Companys R&D staff increased to 2,123,a yoy increase of 64.8%,almost half of the total staff of the Compa

157、ny.In terms of R&D strategy,we believe that since ERP will go on to exist,continuous upgrades and transition to subscription models are the main directions;In terms of SaaS,due to the complexity of real estate projects and the large number of participants,there are still many areas that the Company

158、can digitalize.We believe that the trend is to explore the pain points of the real estate industry and develop new products while maintaining the existing competitiveness of their main products.Besides,the PaaS platform that the Company is striving to build is also one of its core areas of competiti

159、veness.The Company is focused on building five independent capabilities of aPaaS Capacity,iPaaS Capacity,bpmPaaS Capacity,DaaS Capacity and Technology Innovation,with five kinds of products including aPaaS,iPaaS,bpmPaaS,BI&Big Data and BPA&Portal.In 2021,the investment in PaaS platform has increased

160、 by more than 140%yoy.A mature PaaS platform can not only facilitate the Company to deploy DevOps(Development and Operations),but also enable quick and continuous upgrades to products.It empowers clients and ecosystem partners to help their own development.After clients and partners develop popular

161、products,the Company will benefit from their success and thereby realize a positive feedback cycle from the Company to the ecosystem,and then from the ecosystem to the Company.The Companys widespread sales network has helped to build an economic moat.The Companys sales strategy is well-organized and

162、 in line with industry practice.It mainly serves the leading property developers with direct sales teams in the tier-1 cities(Beijing,Shanghai,Shenzhen and Guangzhou),and cooperates with channel partners in lower-tier cities to cover small-and medium-sized real estate enterprises.As at March 31,2020

163、,the Company had 69 channel partners in 27 provinces in China,widely distributed and only provide services for the Company.In 2021,revenue from channel partners exceeded half of the total,accounting for 52%,a yoy increase of 5 ppt.Due to the centralized deployment of ERP systems,if property develope

164、rs purchase products,they will utilize them in their subsidiaries and branches in other provinces and cities,where channel partners all over the country have the advantage of being closer to enterprise decision makers.Due to the differences between ERP solutions and SaaS products,the Company has dif

165、ferent treatment on channel incentive policies and revenue recognition:1)ERP solutions:the Company is an agent and its revenue is based on a net amount retained from the transaction.Based on this model,since ERP systems need to be deployed locally and channel partners have advantages in terms of geo

166、graphical location and client resources,the responsibility for delivery and maintenance mainly lies with their partners.To compensate channel partners,the Company offers them products with discounts.From 2017-2019,the discount rate of the Company remained stable,and was 63.1%/63.3%/62.9%,respectivel

167、y.We believe that through this model,the Company can better achieve cost-effectiveness focusing on investment in tier-1 cities,and in the meantime expand to lower-tier cities.2)SaaS products:products and services are mainly provided by the Company who is the principal,and revenue is recognized in gr

168、oss amount of the consideration from clients.Due to the convenience of SaaS,the Company can be responsible for the cloud infrastructure that supports the products and related services without the channel partners providing substantive implementation or other services.After a channel partner issues b

169、ills to a final customer,the Company recognizes the revenue,and then returns some portion to the channel in the form of sales commission and then the Company confirms the sales and marketing expenses.In 2017-2019 and the first quarter of 2020,the Company granted sales discounts ranging from 50%-65%t

170、o most channel partners.We believe that this model conforms to the feature of easy deployment of SaaS products and helps to increase the market share of products.Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 17 of 20 18 August 2022 Ming Yuan Cloud 明源云(00909 HK)Table_PageHeader Ming Yuan Cloud

171、(00909 HK)Figure-16:SaaS Revenue Keeps on Expanding Figure-17:SaaS Surpassed ERP as the Major Revenue Source Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Figure-18:CRM Cloud Revenue Increases Steadily YoY Figure-19:License&Value-added Services Are Main

172、Contributors of ERP Solutions Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Figure-20:The Companys Gross Margin Has Been Stable Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.1793295108711,3385526694005847548348474222245809131,2641,7052,18497489283.5%54.8

173、%70.9%53.5%65.5%21.2%45.8%29.2%10.6%1.5%25.1%-47.0%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0002017A2018A2019A2020A2021A1H21A1H22ESaaSERP SolutionsYoY-SaaSYoY-ERPRMB mnRMB mn31.0%36.1%40.3%51.1%61.2%56.7%74.9%69.0%63.9%59.7%48.9%38.8%43.3%25.1%0%20%40%60%80%100%2017A2018A2019A2020A2021A1

174、H21A1H22ESaaSERP Solutions1222263556691,0254285134274111138189799002004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6002017A2018A2019A2020A2021A1H21A 1H22ECRM CloudConstruction CloudProcurement CloudSpace Cloud OthersRMB mnRMB mn1182073203443231501381582322332502541401296876881039444405670114138175888001002003004005006

175、007008009002017A2018A2019A2020A2021A1H211H22EValue-added servicesSoftware licensingImplementation servicesProduct support servicesRMB mnRMB mn79%81%79%79%80%79%77%48%46%43%47%87%-48%-94%27%24%23%21%29%-26%-30%13%17%17%-41%-16%17%-61%-120%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2017A2018A2019A2020A202

176、1A1H211H22EGross MarginSG&A as%of the RevenueR&D as%of the RevenueNet Margin Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 18 of 20 18 August 2022 Ming Yuan Cloud 明源云(00909 HK)Table_PageHeader Ming Yuan Cloud(00909 HK)Key Risks 1)Risk of falling demand in digitalization of the real estate ind

177、ustry in the near term:the narrowing of financing channels for property developers has led to fewer new projects,creating pressure of debt reduction and deleveraging.As a result,they could reduce their digitalization budget,which would have a negative impact on the revenue of the Company.2)SaaS prod

178、uct promotion may not progress as expected:during the difficult period of operation,demand and acceptance from developers for SaaS products may be weakened,or result in reduced willingness and ability to pay,which affects the price per client.3)PaaS investment and ecosystem construction may not go a

179、s expected:the Company continues to devote heavily in R&D of the PaaS platform but there is uncertainty regarding the maturing of the platform,and the process of attracting ecosystem partners may be lower than expected.4)The expansion of state-owned enterprise customers may be slower than expected:m

180、ost of the Companys previous customers are private enterprises,and the expansion to state-owned enterprises in the industrial development field may be slow.In the initial stages of expansion,due to strong bargaining power of customers,the final transaction unit price may not be ideal,which will affe

181、ct gross margin.Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 19 of 20 18 August 2022 Ming Yuan Cloud 明源云(00909 HK)Table_PageHeader Ming Yuan Cloud(00909 HK)Financial Statements and Ratios Table_IncomeStatement Income Statement Year end 31 Dec(RMB m)2020A 2021A 2022F 2023F 2024F Revenue-SaaS

182、products 871 1,338 1,736 2,112 2,587 Revenue-ERP solutions 834 847 707 660 588 Total Revenue 1,705 2,184 2,443 2,772 3,176 Cost of sales(366)(433)(438)(448)(456)Gross profit 1,340 1,751 2,006 2,324 2,720 R&D expenses(356)(642)(721)(832)(934)Sales and marketing expenses(590)(897)(977)(1,098)(1,235)Ge

183、neral and administration expenses(208)(1,003)(623)(513)(572)Net impairment losses on financial assets(4)(44)(22)(11)(5)Other operating income,net 95 97 99 102 105 Operating Profit 326(627)(182)1 92 Finance income 14 127 104 102 102 Finance costs(2)(3)(4)(4)(5)Net losses upon financial liabilities at

184、 FVTPL transferred to equity(989)0 0 0 0 Other gains(losses),net 50 111 55 28 14 Share of gain of investment accounted for using equity method 0(0)0 0 0 Profit Before Tax(650)(504)(82)99 189 Income Tax(18)8 2(3)(6)profit After Tax(668)(496)(80)96 183 Non-controlling Interest(36)152 3(3)(6)Shareholde

185、rs Profit/Loss(704)(344)(77)93 177 Basic EPS(0.480)(0.185)(0.041)0.050 0.095 Cash Flow Statement Year end 31 Dec(RMB m)2020A 2021A 2022F 2023F 2024F Profit before tax(650)(504)(82)99 189 D&A 34 57 72 73 76 Net finance income(12)(123)(100)(98)(97)Others 949 711 172 194 153 Change in working capital 1

186、08(181)(121)(156)(130)Interest received(paid),net 10 117 0 0 0 Tax paid(33)12 2(3)(6)Cash from Operating Activities 406 89(57)109 185 Payments for PPE(44)(248)(50)(40)(32)Payments for intangible assets(3)(5)(4)(3)(3)Others(2,004)(1,709)(137)(142)(148)Cash from Investing Activities(2,051)(1,962)(190)

187、(185)(182)Proceeds from issuance of new shares 6,225 0 0 0 0 Payment for acquisition of non-controlling interests in a subsidiary(50)(653)0 0 0 Others(286)(164)(59)(68)(79)Cash from Financing Activities 5,889(816)(59)(68)(79)Net Changes in Cash 4,243(2,689)(307)(144)(76)Cash at Beg of Year 732 4,759

188、 2,017 1,661 1,472 FX change(216)(53)(50)(44)(41)Cash at End of Year 4,759 2,017 1,661 1,472 1,356 Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Balance Sheet Year end 31 Dec(RMB m)2020A 2021A 2022F 2023F 2024F Right-of-use assets 63 100 107 123 141 PPE 150 326 352 370 382 Investments accounted for

189、using the equity method 0 11 12 13 14 Others 50 223 215 212 212 Total Non-current Assets 262 659 686 718 749 Inventories 0 1 1 1 1 Trade receivables 30 80 89 101 116 Contract acquisition costs 191 279 474 711 924 Term deposits 1,813 3,433 3,536 3,642 3,751 Cash&Cash Equivalents 4,759 2,017 1,661 1,4

190、72 1,356 Others 416 505 461 522 594 Total Current Assets 7,210 6,314 6,221 6,449 6,741 Total Assets 7,472 6,973 6,907 7,167 7,490 Trade and other payables 267 306 321 338 358 Contract liabilities 549 601 691 795 914 Lease liabilities 28 41 44 51 59 Others 0 0 0 0 0 Total Current Liabilities 843 948

191、1,057 1,184 1,331 Contract liabilities 25 32 39 46 51 Lease liabilities 34 62 64 74 85 Others 0 0 0 0 0 Total Non-current Liabilities 59 94 103 120 136 Total Liabilities 903 1,043 1,160 1,305 1,467 Share capital 0 0 0 0 0 Reserves 7,001 6,664 6,664 6,664 6,664 Retained earnings(463)(731)(911)(800)(6

192、45)Total Shareholders Equity 6,539 5,933 5,753 5,865 6,019 Minority Interest 31(3)(6)(3)4 Total Equity 6,570 5,930 5,748 5,862 6,023 Financial Ratios 2020A 2021A 2022F 2023F 2024F Gross profit margin(%)78.6 80.2 82.1 83.8 85.6 Operating profit margin(%)19.1(28.7)(7.5)0.0 2.9 Net profit margin(%)(41.

193、3)(15.7)(3.1)3.3 5.6 ROA(%)(16.2)(4.8)(1.1)1.3 2.4 ROE(%)(20.7)(5.5)(1.3)1.6 3.0 Current ratio(x)8.5 6.7 5.9 5.4 5.1 Quick ratio(x)8.5 6.7 5.9 5.4 5.1 Debt to equity ratio(%)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net gearing(%)Net Cash Net Cash Net Cash Net Cash Net Cash Company Report See the last page for disclaimer

194、 Page 20 of 20 18 August 2022 Ming Yuan Cloud 明源云(00909 HK)Table_PageHeader Ming Yuan Cloud(00909 HK)Company Rating Definition The Benchmark:Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon:6 to 18 months Rating Definition Buy 買入 Relative Performance15%;or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is f

195、avorable.Accumulate 收集 Relative Performance is 5%to 15%;or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.Neutral 中性 Relative Performance is-5%to 5%;or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral.Reduce 減持 Relative Performance is-5%to-15%;or the fundamental outlook of

196、the company or sector is unfavorable.Sell 賣出 Relative Performance 5%;or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable.Neutral 中性 Relative Performance is-5%to 5%;or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral.Underperform 跑輸大市 Relative Performance-5%;Or the fundamental outlook of the sector

197、 is unfavorable.DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS(1)The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.(2)The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.(3)Except for SF

198、 REIT(02191 HK),JINSHANG BANK(02558 HK),BANKOFZHENGZHOU(06196 HK),XPENG-W(09868 HK),Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1%of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.(4)Guotai Junan and its group companies have not had investment ba

199、nking relationships with the issuer mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months.(5)Guotai Junan and its group companies are not making a market in the securities in respect of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.(6)Guotai Junan and its group companies have not employed

200、an individual serving as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.There is no officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report associated with Guotai Junan and its group companies.DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire,purchase

201、or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities(Hong Kong)Limited(Guotai Junan).Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports,including investment banking,investment services,etc.(for example,the placing agent,lead manager,sponsor,u

202、nderwriter or invest proprietarily).Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons,dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies.Any opinions expressed in this re

203、port may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan.Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report,Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accu

204、racy and completeness of the information and data herein.This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation,so uncertainty may contain.Investors

205、 should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks,and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision.This Research Report is not directed at,or intended for distribution to or use by,any person or entity who is a citizen or resid

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