ABIresearch：2020年國際消費電子展33關鍵趨勢（英文版）(13頁).pdf

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1、THIRD ANNUAL 33 KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM CES 2020 A CASE OF TECHNOLOGY STAGFLATION OR MATURE EVOLUTION? 2CES 2020: 33 KEY TAKEAWAYS LETTER FROM OUR CHIEF RESEARCH OFFICER Dear Colleagues, CES 2020 was a curious event and somewhat symptomatic of the transitional period we are in as a technology industry. T

2、he furor built around significant “transformational” announcements at CES of previous years was in direct contrast to 2020s show that was impacted by a number of external factors. The macroeconomic market, global political challenges and an uncertain consumer environment around the globe have really

3、 acted to refocus the industrys attention away from “what could be done” to “what should be done”. A healthy dose of reality and a notion of “lets focus on whats going to move the needle NOW” has emerged. Notably, except for the Mercedes-Benz Vision AVTR strolling down the Las Vegas strip. When you

4、consider this backdrop, it becomes easier to see the shaping forces behind a lot of the shifts in attention and messaging within the tech domain. Examples of this can be seen in the Auto market, where the historic myopic aspirational drive to fully autonomous vehicles was replaced with a more realis

5、tic pursuit of EV concepts, enhanced infotainment and integration of the car into adjacent markets such as the smart home or the smart city. All of these are likely to derive much more near-term accretive value for all parts of the ecosystem. A similar example can be seen in the positioning of 5G. I

6、n previous years it was positioned as the panacea to all ills and would be ever-present in every application in every potential scenario you can think of. Moreover, there was a “Field of Dreams” quality to the positioning of 5G that dictated that all you needed to do was incorporate 5G into your pro

7、duct and revenues would magically multiply. It is pleasing to see that CES 2020 saw a more mature attitude to the technology and discussions really began in earnest around how to pay for 5G and structure a solution that will be relevant to not just the consumer but the wider marketplace. In the cont

8、ext of this confusing, ever-changing technology space, ABI Research provides clear guidance on those most critical technologies that will drive differentiation and future value. Most importantly, we are wedded to providing our partners with the strategic input they need to monetize their technology

9、investment; the emerging “trend” most prevalent at CES 2020. Stuart Carlaw Chief Research Officer ABI Research 3CES 2020: 33 KEY TAKEAWAYS VIDEO AND CLOUD SERVICES CES 2020 proved to be both evolutionary and forward looking in the video space. The TV and display vendors shifted their focus to premiu

10、m and next generation technologies; putting 8K displays front and center and tantalizing attendees with longer term visions around MicroLED (both modular and massive displays), rollable OLED TV (LGs 65” rollable TV will reportedly arrive at $60K), and transparent OLED displays. On the content/servic

11、e/platform side the focus was on security (e.g. multi-DRM, anti-piracy, credential sharing) and bringing OTT and traditional TV platforms together (both operator/pay TV and broadcast). On the display front 8K is providing TV manufacturers a way to differentiate the premium tier. There is very little

12、 8K content (YouTube is currently the prime source) and 4K is still growing, with a significant portion of viewing still at HD mobile video is still a dominant streaming platform and there is effectively no 4K content streaming to these devices. While other display technologies like OLED can create

13、enough differentiation for some consumers (more companies/brands like Vizio, Skyworth, Philips, Konka are adding OLED) most consumers find it easier to differentiate (by understanding, not necessarily visually) changes to resolution than contrast, backlighting, color gamut, etc. 8Ks arrival is remin

14、iscent of 4K, arriving well in advance of content and creating some connectivity issues for those consumers who have older home theaters, but these early sets allow TV manufacturers to capture some consumer surplus from those households who demand the most technologically advanced hardware. These TV

15、s also present opportunities to integrate AI (e.g. upscaling) and other unique features and services. While 8K and expanding OLED suppliers are not likely to make a significant impact on the video space in the near term, the other display technologies do offer glimpses into what will become possible

16、 over a longer-term horizon. MicroLED, in particular, could expand how the TV/display is configured and used within the home. As part of a pervasive screen, the number of displays within the home is expected to grow and have a wider breadth of applications. Screens are already appearing on other dev

17、ices like smart displays and appliances that are not necessarily video-first screens. MicroLEDs and other display technologies could expand this to more areas of the household, such as with Samsungs vision of a wall or other companies that have imagined using parts of windows or other transparent di

18、splays. Other technologies like Wi-Fi 6 (e.g. as part of cable operators marketing vision for 10G), computer vision, and smart home features/applications (e.g. voice assistants) received attention as a means to create new opportunities for operators including addressable advertising, security/smart

19、home, and network management (reduce costs, improve UX and reduce churn) privacy will of course remain a significant factor, tied to both regulations and corporate responsibility/branding. 1 2 3 4 4CES 2020: 33 KEY TAKEAWAYS On the content and service front the focus at CES 2020 was comparably (to d

20、isplays/TVs) more progressive than long-term horizons. Large operators like Comcast/Xfinity have already made the transition to combine OTT and live/linear programming on one platform other operators however have not taken this step and companies throughout the video value chain are offering solutio

21、ns to help make these adaptations. Companies like Gracenote/Nielsen are supplying deep metadata and catalog information to help with cross service search and recommendation by offering a unified taxonomy that spans services, content, and operators, while others like Amdocs and Synamedia are helping

22、with OTT service onboarding and customer and subscription lifecycle management. For those end users who have cut the cord efforts to better aggregate OTT services were also on display from companies like Dabby which uses an AI-based search engine to manage multiple streaming services e.g. subscripti

23、on management/payments and cross service search, although the dongle and touchscreen device will carry a $400 price tag. All of these efforts are working to make video viewing a more seamless experience. Content security remains a focal point in all tradeshows, in part because there is still quite a

24、 bit of work to do in the growing live/linear OTT streaming market. Anti-piracy technologies like watermarking and active detection and enforcement are still gaining traction in the live OTT markets, particularly sports. In addition other areas like credential sharing are positioned as solutions to

25、help in the massively expanding SVOD segment. All of these steps are designed to ensure OTT video can remain premium and cover the gap left when households cut the pay TV cord. These services and solutions are also working to enable the longer-term visions like the pervasive screen, albeit still ear

26、ly on in the step-by-step approach to this distant future. AUGMENTED AND VIRTUAL REALITY AR/VR at CES 2020 was an interesting state of affairs. There was less outright technology innovation shown than previous years, but instead a level of maturity for the space was shown in a couple different ways.

27、 Firstly, there was a strong presence of enterprise AR players at the show, both hardware and software platforms, showing that the market is ready for expansion. Secondly, non-AR/VR companies leveraged AR and VR themselves much more commonly than in the past, again showcasing the maturity of technol

28、ogies for marketing, visualization, demonstration, interaction, and more. While AR/VR hardware innovation may have been light, it was not completely absent from the show. The potential for MicroLED in TVs and similar consumer electronics has been highlighted, but there is also significant potential

29、in AR/VR. Cost and manufacturing processes still need time to mature, but high brightness, good off-angle viewing, and high efficiency (both for battery and heat dissipation) bode well for HMD applications. 5 6 7 8 5CES 2020: 33 KEY TAKEAWAYS While CES has long been more than just a “consumer” elect

30、ronics show, this year showed a surprising level of enterprise AR activity and maturity, both in new and expected markets. Some notable incumbent names in hardware were there in force, including RealWear and Vuzix, as were the more consumer- oriented devices from the likes of nReal and Realmax. Plat

31、forms were also on display, with AMA, Teamviewer, and others showcasing whats new in the realm of augmented reality supporting platforms. Also, while there wasnt a huge amount of technical innovation on display this year, there was a significant number of non-AR/VR companies leveraging AR/VR themsel

32、ves for demos, visualization tools, and more. The increase in usage here again highlights that growing level of maturity. It is nearly impossible to escape automotive at CES 2020 these days, and AR/VR was no different this year. There was a strong focus on infotainment and general display within the

33、 automobile this year, and an extension of that is augmented reality HUDs, with vision forward to more all-encompassing augmented reality infotainment and full-display windshields. There is also the extension of the more traditional and mature field service/post sale market for AR within automotive,

34、 with a number of brands already adopting AR/VR for improved maintenance efficiency thanks to hands free data access, as well as showroom value add through more immersive marketing, visualization, and interactivity capabilities. WayRay once again presented some very compelling visualization potentia

35、l with laser projection for HUDs, with others focused more on visualization enablement, such as Altia who is working on user interface design and enablement for automotive and other markets. M2M, IOT & IOE AerNos, Inc. has presented brand new Air Quality Monitoring Sensors during CES 2020. Compact A

36、erNos nano gas sensor enables air monitoring, which reduces the risk of exposure from air pollutants but also transmits data in near real-time. Considering that traditional and legacy air monitoring systems are extensive and costly, the AerNos nanosensor represents affordability for consumer segment

37、s, where users are able to educate themselves on air pollutants impact, mitigate sources of pollution and ensure saver and healthier quality of air in their houses. Therefore, AerNos sensors constitute a new vision for the future of Smart Homes, Smart Cities and potentially #smartoceancities. CES 20

38、20 actively highlighted pro-environmental and crisis mitigating IoT solutions, in both B2B and consumer segments. Such market dynamics clearly showcase the emerging attractiveness and monetization of environmental solutions which signifies the transition to cleantech innovations and investment oppor

39、tunities in green ventures. 9 10 11 12 6CES 2020: 33 KEY TAKEAWAYS There is one part of the CES convention center designated for IoT suppliers. It is a much smaller area of the show, and it continues to grow but not in the typical fashion of another device OEM, gateway supplier, or module vendor. Ne

40、wer IoT vendors this year at CES 2020 are suppliers with expertise not only in device technologies but also in building connected solutions. An example is an Irish firm named Taoglas. Taoglas is not only an antenna products and RF solutions provider but an IoT solutions provider. It is an example of

41、 a company thrust into the market of more sophisticated IoT services through requests by its customers to help them build end-to-end solutions. More companies like Taoglas will have a presence at CES in the years to come for one simple reason. In the 21st century, gadgets have got to be smart. But a

42、dding smarts to any device is not an easy endeavor considering all of the components, such as an application, network connectivity, cloud services, and security. For a show that grows every year with gadgets ranging from drones to (dare we mention) sex toys, differentiation will need to come from ma

43、king them smart through connectivity and intelligence. SMART HOME At CES 2020, a reinvigorated ADT pushed its brand and its services into new areas, expanding not only its own services but providing a potential template for the wider home monitoring industry to better combat growing competition from

44、 smart home DIY home security offerings. ADT extended its brand into new DIY, non-monitored offerings but more importantly begun to leverage its existing brand into personal security away from the home environment. Launched at CES 2020, the Safe by ADT Platform is a branded mobile safety platform th

45、at can be integrated into third party apps. It enables end-users to discretely request assistance by voice, SMS chat or a silent alert with a security professional at one of ADTs owned and operated monitoring centers. Ride share company Lyft is the first partner for the service with the Safe by ADT

46、platform to be embedded in Lyfts own ridesharing app for initial trials starting in January 2020. A standalone ADT app version for its subscribers branded ADT SoSecure was also launched and offers additional features that tie monitored security delivery to individuals away from the home. 13 14 15 7C

47、ES 2020: 33 KEY TAKEAWAYS As the market continues to blur the customer base of monitored security and smart home services, smart home providers will increasingly look to leverage their install base into addition services and revenue streams. Smart home delivers providers with a wealth of customer da

48、ta and the potential to steer end- users to brands and services away from core smart home delivery and into a wide range of adjacent markets including transportation, retail, insurance and more. ADTs extension of its brand and services into mobility is a key recognition of the growing potential for

49、a smart home brand and presence to be extended and leverage for new revenue opportunities. Smart connected locks are becoming more prevalent in the B2B space, used for locking cargo containers and tractor trailer doors. In 2017, the first biometric lock was introduced for the consumer and prosumer markets using the fingerprint as the key. BenjiLock, a startup, was the patent holder at that time for the fingerprint smart lock and soon was acquired by Hampton. Today, there are multiple suppliers of fingerprint padlocks with innovation coming in smaller lock size, num