：亞太地區-房地產行業-亞洲地產業：在家辦公是一個新的挑戰（英文版）（65頁）.pdf

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1、MM Mapping the New Normal Asia Property: Working from Home, a New Challenge for Asias Office Landlords WFH is a cost saving opportunity for businesses. We expect tenants across Asia to surrender 3-9% of existing office space permanently, resulting in a rent decline of 10-15% over the next three year

2、s. Prefer office stocks in Hong Kong and India over Australia and Japan. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan St

3、anley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates ar

4、e not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. July 27, 2020 08:00 PM GMT MM MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ Pra

5、veen K Choudhary Equity Analyst +852 2848-5068 Praveen.C Contributors MORGAN STANLEY ASIA (SINGAPORE) PTE.+ Wilson W Ng, CFA Equity Analyst +65 6834-6345 Wilson.W.N MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ Hildy Ling Equity Analyst +852 2239-7834 Hildy.L MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ Dan Xu Equity Analyst +852 2

6、239-1227 Dan.Xd.X MORGAN STANLEY ASIA (SINGAPORE) PTE.+ Derek Chang Equity Analyst +65 6834-6512 Derek.C MORGAN STANLEY MUFG SECURITIES CO., LTD.+ Atsuro Takemura Equity Analyst +81 3 6836-5429 Atsuro.T MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED+ Simon Chan Equity Analyst +61 2 9770-1316 Simon.C MORGAN STANLE

7、Y INDIA COMPANY PRIVATE LIMITED+ Sameer Baisiwala, CFA Equity Analyst +91 22 6118-2214 Sameer.B MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ Elly Chen Equity Analyst +852 3963-0122 Elly.C MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED+ Lauren A Berry Equity Analyst +61 2 9770-1359 Lauren.B MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ Chloe Liu

8、Equity Analyst +852 2848-5497 Chloe.L MORGAN STANLEY INDIA COMPANY PRIVATE LIMITED+ Pooja Bhatia Research Associate +91 22 6118-2217 Pooja.B MM Mapping the New Normal Asia Property: Working from Home, a New Challenge for Asias Office Landlords WFH impact on demand and rental 3-9% lower demand and 10

9、-15% lower rental: We expect big tenants (financial institutions, IT) with well established BCP/WFH infrastructure to return 10% of their existing office space to landlords over the next three years. This will be achieved by asking certain functions to work from home per- manently (HR, some parts of

10、 IT, back office), offshoring to cheaper locations (India, Vietnam, and desk sharing. However, we believe the intangible benefits of social connection, collaboration, and social dis- tancing will keep the number from rising further. WFH is rapidly changing the trend and will benefit re-centraliza- t

11、ion and more flexible workspaces, in our view. Regional comparison: We prefer HK and India over Japan and Australia, driven by four factors. (1) Tenants are expected to return space in financial centers in developed economies, but we see limited impact in China and India. (2) Tokyo is the only city

12、where rental increased in 1H20; thus, we expect more rental downside from here. (3) Hong Kong showed the worst decline (-13%) in rental in 1H20, implying that a lot of bad news is in the price. (4) Sydney and Tokyo have the highest supply addition over the next three years, putting cyclical pressure

13、 on rents. (5) HK and Indian stocks are trading at 55% discounts to NAV and more importantly, 30% deeper than the long- term average. Stock picks: We see more downside to Suntec REIT, GPT and Mitsui Fudosan. On the other hand, SHKP, HK Land and DLF are pricing in worst-case scenarios with regard to

14、WFH. W FH is a cost saving opportunity for businesses. We expect tenants across Asia to surrender 3-9% of existing office space permanently, resulting in a rent decline of 10-15% over the next three years. Prefer office stocks in Hong Kong and India over Australia and Japan. Analysing the long-term

15、impact of WFH: Office rentals across Asia declined 2-13% in 1H20 owing to weaker demand (negative GDP, higher unemployment), and we expect this to continue in 2H20. The bigger concern for landlords, however, is that a portion of existing employees continue to work from home (WFH). This report, a col

16、lab- orative work across the Asian region, is an attempt to quantify the rental impact on six key financial capitals over the next three years. We also identify the winners and losers based on what is already in the price. Office spaces are important for tenants and landlords (and thus stocks): The

17、top 6 cities in Asia account for US$0.8 trillion worth of Grade A office space as of December 2019, by our estimate. For ten- ants, we estimate that office rental could be as high as 15-20% of fixed operating costs. AlphaWise survey of office workers in HK, Australia, the UK, and the US four key rev

18、elations: (1) The majority of employees would like the flexibility to work from home. (2) Most dont want to work from home every day (except in Australia). In HK, the majority would like WFH 40% of Australians would like to work from home every day. (3) Most HK-based respon- dents dont want to share

19、 desks. (4) Respondents cited the biggest challenge with WFH as infrastructure issues (57%), not space con- straints (25%). M 4 M Contents 5Key Charts 6Investment Conclusion 10Asia Office Stocks Comps Table 11Mapping the New Normal 13Flexibility Is Still Valued 15Hong Kong Office Pricing in Too Much

20、 Downside? 23Singapore: Concerns Appear Overdone 29Japan Office: Market Conditions Could Worsen Further, Not in the Price 38Australia: Office Rents Could Decline By 10-20% 46 India - Resilience in Office Demand 51China: Shanghai Office Less Impacted by WFH 54Appendix M MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH5 M Key

21、 Charts Exhibit 1: Major cities office market value 345 160 129 99 49 37 Hong Kong Singapore Tokyo Shanghai Sydney Mumbai Premium/Grade A office market value (US$bn) Source: Total market value is estimated using office stock from respective government sources, JLL/ CBRE estimates multiplied by ASP e

22、stimated by respective regional property analysts from Morgan Stanley Research Exhibit 3: Next three years office supply +15% +8%+8% +6% +5% India- Seven Metros SydneyTokyoSingaporeHong Kong Next 3 year office addition as % of current stock Source: JLL, CBRE, Morgan Stanley Research Exhibit 5: Offic

23、e demand net impact of WFH 0%0%0% 3% 5% 9% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% IndiaChinaSingaporeHong KongTokyoAustralia WFH net impact on office by 2022E Source: WFH impact is estimated by regional Morgan Stanley Research property team based on results from AlphaWise survey Exhibit 2: Changes in vac

24、ancy and spot rent in 1H20 6.0% 10.5% 5.0% 1.6% 13% 7.6% 11.0% 7.5% 2.0% 12% -13% -3% -2% 3% -2% Hong KongSingaporeSydneyTokyoIndia- Seven Metros Dec-19 VacancyJun-20 Vacancy1H20 spot rent chg % Source: JLL, CBRE, Morgan Stanley Research Exhibit 4: Real GDP growth between 2019 and 2022E +13% +3.8% +

25、2.0% +0.1% -1.7% IndiaSingaporeAustraliaHong KongJapan 2022E over 2019 real GDP chg% Source: Morgan Stanley Research (E) estimates Exhibit 6: Grade A office rent forecast bull and bear cases (Jun-20 to Dec-22) -30% -20% -30% -20% -5% 15% 5% 20% 10% 13% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% SingaporeTok

26、yoHong KongSydneyIndia- Seven Metros Grade-A office rent forcast by 2022E -7% -10% -5% -9% +5% Bull Bear Base Source: Morgan Stanley Research (E) estimates M 6 M (3) AlphaWise survey in Hong Kong, Australia, the UK, and the US We conducted a flash survey in HK (sample size 698), Australia (sample si

27、ze 937), the UK (sample size 4,500,) and the US (sample size 2,000) from April to July. Our conclusions: 1. The Majority of employees (75-90%) would like the flexibility to work from home in future even when COVID-19 is past. 2. However, most of them would not like to work from home every day (excep

28、t in Australia). In HK, the majority would like to work less than three days (mostly one day) per week from home. More than 46% of Australians would like to work from home every day. 3. Most HK respondents (more than 50%) do not want to share desks. 4. The biggest complaint against WFH is infrastruc

29、ture issues (57%) and not space constraints (25%). 5. During the early stages of COVID-19, 70-80% of employees were working from home, but in the US, only 54% were working from home. This may be because the survey was across the US and not just in New York City. Investment Conclusion (1) Why write t

30、his report now? In the early waves of the COVID-19 crisis across Asia, roughly 80% of employees were working from home without apparent productivity loss, based on our AlphaWise survey. More importantly, a majority of employees have stated they would like to continue working from home even after COV

31、ID-19 normalizes. This report is a collaborative work by research analysts across the region to answer this key ques- tion: l What permanent impact will WFH have on vacancy and rental for key cities in Asia and how much is in the price of various stocks (we identified 15 stocks in five countries)? (

32、2) Importance of office for the real estate industry In Asia, the top six Grade-A offices in the major cities (Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo, Sydney, Shanghai, Mumbai) are worth US$0.8 trillion as of December 2019, by our estimate: This is calculated by multiplying the gross floor area by rental and d

33、ividing by the cap rate for each region. We highlight 15 stocks in Asia whose share prices move with the office outlook, owing to their GAV exposure to office of more than 50%: For tenants, office rental accounts for roughly 15-20% of their fixed operating costs and thus is worth their attention. Ex

34、hibit 7: Total percentage of respondents WFH during COVID 81% 73% 69% 54% LondonHKEuropeUS Total of WFH during covid Source: AlphaWise Note: Surveys were conducted as follows: Europe/UK: 15-21 June; HK: 20-23 July; US: 4 April to 14 July. Exhibit 8: Intention to WFH in the future 92% 83% 77% 76% 73%

35、 SingaporeHKLondonAustraliaEurope % of workers want to WFH in the future Source: AlphaWise, Singapore data from Engagerock.co M MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH7 M Exhibit 9: Intention to WFH every day 46% 23% 22% 18% 17% AustraliaHKLondonSingaporeEurope Of those office worker would like to WFH, % would like

36、 to WFH everyday Source: Australia/HK/London/Europe data from AlphaWise, Singapore data from Engagerock.co Note: Australia data is prefer WFH 4days/week. Singapore data -% saying based on my current experi- ence working from home, I can see myself 100% WFH effectively after COVID 19. Exhibit 10: Pre

37、ference to WFH once/week 10% 5% 4% 3% HKAustraliaEuropeLondon Of those office worker would like to WFH, % would like to WFH 40%, which is overly bearish, in our view. (3) Gearing ratio should be stable as the company switches to land-replenishment mode. DLF (DLF.NS)OWINR211 (+52%)1.32 1.4% DLF is ou

38、r top pick in the industry given its diversified business model, which includes both office and residential business, new asset creation cycle, steadily improving balance sheet, and inexpensive valuation. The companys plans to focus on middle-income housing and sell as you build should help improve

39、near-term cash flows. Source: Morgan Stanley Research Exhibit 15: Key Underweight stocks PTP/BV (x) Div YieldWhy UW? StockRating(Upside)FY0FY1 Suntec REIT (SUNT.SI)UWS$1.4 (+0.7%)0.66 5.1% While SUNs dividend yield is higher than its office-REIT peers in Singapore, we think it offers the least attra

40、ctive dividend growth outlook. We see headwinds to dividends from the negative impacts from the pandemic on its retail mall and convention centre busi- nesses, and as the stock weans itself off capital distributions that have been supple- menting dividends. GPT (GPT.AX)UWA$4.2 (+1.9%)0.72 4.9% (1) I

41、ts active office development business (A$1bn) is likely to be dormant, as vacancies rise across Sydney and Melbourne. (2) Close to 30% of its office portfolio has maturity in 2020/21 (vs. peers with lower expo- sure; c.25% for DXS and c.15% for MGR). (3) Around 40% of GPTs exposure is in Retail, wit

42、h a large presence in Melbourne, which is going through a second lockdown. Mitsui Fudosan (8801.T) UW1,700 (-7%)0.67 2.4% Among real estate developers in Japan, the company has an economically sensitive busi- ness portfolio relative to peers and its discount to NAV looks less appealing at around 40%

43、 vs. 60% for other developers. Also, the stocks dividend yield is lower than peers in the region. Source: Morgan Stanley Research (6) What is priced in and stock picks We prefer HK Land, SHKP, and DLF among regional real estate companies with high office exposure. The least preferred stocks are Sunt

44、ec REIT, GPT and Mitsui Fudosan. What is priced into property stocks? Among the 15 big-cap stocks we have identified, Swire Properties, HK Land, Mirvac, Mitsui Fudosan and DLF have declined the most, while SHKP, CACT and Embassy REIT have been more resilient in 1H20. We compare the cur- rent P/BV or

45、 discount to NAV to the long-term average for each and find that HK Land and Swire Properties have factored in as much as a 40% decline in rental from the current level, which is unlikely, in our view. On the other hand, current rental in Japan is at an all time high (+3% YoY), and stocks have decli

46、ned 24% in 1H20 and are currently trading at a 20% discount to the long-term average. Thus, we see more downside from here. M 10 M Asia Office Stocks: Comps Table Exhibit 16: Regional office comps table US$mnLoCLoC%P/BV (x)P/E (x)Div Yield Net Gearing 24-Jul-20TickerYr. EndFXRatingMkt CapClosing PxP

47、TUpsideFY0FY1FY1FY0 Sun Hung Kai Properties0016.HKJunHKD OW 34,56492.5131+42%0.67135.4%13% Swire Properties1972.HKDecHKD OW 13,22317.523+31%0.47195.0%5% HK LandHKLD.SIDecUSD OW 9,0563.95.3+37%0.32125.7%9% Keppel REITKASA.SIDecSGD OW 2,6911.11.25+14%0.92225.2%44% CACTCACT.SIDecSGD EW 4,7941.71.80+5%0

48、.97234.5%36% Suntec REITSUNT.SIDecSGD UW 2,8321.41.40+1%0.66195.1%58% DexusDXS.AXJunAUD OW 6,9549.011.0+22%0.96175.6%34% MirvacMGR.AXJunAUD EW 5,8362.12.6+24%1.03165.3%34% GPTGPT.AXDecAUD UW 5,6964.14.2+2%0.72164.9%33% Mitsubishi Estate8802.TMarJPY EW 20,7541,5931,700+7%1.26211.6%50% Sumitomo R 2. I

49、dentifying functions that can be permanently done from home (like editing, HR, back office); and 3. Desk sharing, where everyone works from home one day a week, which itself can save 20% of office space. As an example, JLL, a real estate consultancy firm in Hong Kong , man- aged with desk space for only 80% of its employees for the last few years because, prior to COVID-19, at any given time 20% of its employees were out of the of