了解中歐和東歐的千兆瓦級太陽能市場現狀.pdf

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1、MISSION SOLAR EXPLORE EUROPES NEXT ENERGY FRONTIERWorkshop SessionTHE SUN IS COMING UP IN THE EAST.MEET THE GIGAWATT MARKETS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEMISSION SOLAR EXPLORE EUROPES NEXT ENERGY FRONTIERSPEAKERSJan KrcmarCEO,Czech Solar AssociationIrene MihaiPolicy Officer,RPIA-Romanian Photovoltai

2、cIndustry AssociationNikola GazdovChairman,ApsteVegard VollsetVice President and Head of the Renewables&Power Research for EMEA,Rystad EnergyBethany MebanHead of Press&Policy Communications,SolarPower EuropeMISSION SOLAR EXPLORE EUROPES NEXT ENERGY FRONTIERSPEAKERVegard VollsetVice President and Hea

3、d of the Renewables&Power Research for EMEA,Rystad EnergyThe sun is coming up in the EastSolarPowerSummitVegard Vollset Head of EMEA,Renewables&Power Research04/05/2023Source:Rystad Energy PowerCubeA Rystad Energy graphicEurope power An extremely diversified sector 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700Teraw

4、att-hoursBioenergyOffshore windOnshore windSolar thermalSolar PVHydroGeothermalNuclearOther(non-renewable)GasLiquidsCoalEurEuro op pe ea an n g ge enener ra atiotion n byby c counount tr ry y i in n 20202222 0 5001 0001 5002 0002 5003 0003 5004 0002000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012

5、201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Central&Eastern Europe 0 5001 0001 5002 0002 5003 0003 5004 0002000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Rest of EuropeCentral&Eastern Europe powe

6、r sector limited in size compared to rest of EuropeEuropean power generation mix by energy source TWh per yearSource:Rystad Energy PowerCubeA Rystad Energy graphic 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 8002000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202

7、520262027202820292030Central&Eastern EuropeCoal 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 8002000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Rest of EuropeCoalBut need for decarbonization is greaterEuropean power generation from coalTWh

8、 per yearSource:Rystad Energy PowerCubeA Rystad Energy graphicEuropean countries dependency on Russian gas imports in 2021Natural gas supply mix by source,Russian exports(Bcm)Source:Rystad Energy GasMarketCube0%50%100%0%50%100%S Souour rcece ofof g ga as s s supupp pl ly yPercent of allG Ga as s s s

9、harhare e ofof popow we er rPercentG Ga as s s sharhare e ofof a al ll l e enener rg gy yPercent2,01,54,60,32,21,16,722,50.81,78,62,71,40,45,24,448,00,63,21,810,20,12,52,61,70.41,10%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%SpainNorwayIrelandPortugalSwedenUKBelgiumNetherlandsSwitzerlandUkraineRomaniaFranceItal

10、yLithuaniaCroatiaPolandGreeceDenmarkLuxembourgHungaryCzech RepublicGermanySloveniaSlovakiaSerbiaAustriaN.MacedoniaMoldovaBulgariaFinlandEstoniaLatviaRussia(pipeline)Own ProductionNorwayNetherlandsUKAzerbaijan/AfricaIntra-Europe TradeTotal LNG importsRussian piped imports 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 70

11、0 8002000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030Central&Eastern EuropeCoalLiquidsGasOther(non-renewable)NuclearGeothermalHydroSolar PVSolar thermalOnshore windOffshore windBioenergySolar PV

12、 largest growing energy source by farCentral and Eastern European power generation by Energy SourceTWh per yearSource:Rystad Energy PowerCubeSource:Rystad Energy PowerCube,NECP:National Energy&Climate Plans,*Not yet submitted updated 2023 draft or no specific solar PV targetSolar ambitions increasin

13、g across the boardSolar NECP targets for EU countries in Central&Eastern Europe Gigawatt Direct Current in 2030 Source:Rystad Energy PowerCube,ENTSO-EGrowth of solar comes with its own set of challengesMonthly solar PV captured rates by countryPercentageThank you for your attentionV Ve eg ga ar rd d

14、 WiWiik ik V Vol olls lse et tHeHeadad o of f R Re en ne ew wa ab ble les s&P Powowe er r -EMEME EA APhone:+47 913 56 310Email:DisclaimerThis presentation has been prepared by Rystad Energy(the“Company”).All materials,content and forms contained in this report are the intellectual property of the Co

15、mpany and may not be copied,reproduced,distributed or displayed without the Companys permission to do so.The information contained in this document is based on the Companys global energy databases and tools,public information,industry reports,and other general research and knowledge held by the Comp

16、any.The Company does not warrant,either expressly or implied,the accuracy,completeness or timeliness of the information contained in this report.The document is subject to revisions.The Company disclaims any responsibility for content error.The Company is not responsible for any actions taken by the

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18、ts).Forward-looking statements include,but are not limited to,(i)projected financial performance of the Recipient or other organizations;(ii)the expected development of the Recipients or other organizations business,projects and joint ventures;(iii)execution of the Recipientsor other organizations v

19、ision and growth strategy,including future M&A activity and global growth;(iv)sources and availability of third-party financing for the Recipients or other organizations projects;(v)completion of the Recipients or other organizations projects that are currently underway,under development or otherwis

20、e under consideration;(vi)renewal of the Recipients or other organizations current customer,supplier and other material agreements;and(vii)future liquidity,working capital,and capital requirements.Forward-looking statements are provided to allow stakeholders the opportunity to understand the Company

21、s beliefs and opinions in respect of the future so that they may use such beliefs and opinions as a factor in their assessment,e.g.when evaluating an investment.These statements are not guarantees of future performance and undue reliance should not be placed on them.Such forward-looking statements n

22、ecessarily involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties,which may cause actual performance and financial results in future periods to differ materially from any projections of future performance or result expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.All forward-looking statements are

23、 subject to a number of uncertainties,risks and other sources of influence,many of which are outside the control of the Company and cannot be predicted with any degree of accuracy.In light of the significant uncertainties inherent in such forward-looking statements made in this presentation,the incl

24、usion of such statements should not be regarded as a representation by the Company or any other person that the forward-looking statements will be achieved.The Company undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements if circumstances change,except as required by applicable securities la

25、ws.The reader is cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.Under no circumstances shall the Company,or its affiliates,be liable for any indirect,incidental,consequential,special or exemplary damages arising out of or in connection with access to the information contained in

26、 this presentation,whether or not the damages were foreseeable and whether or not the Company was advised of the possibility of such damages.Rystad Energy.All Rights Reserved.Rystad Energy is an independent energy consulting services and business intelligence data firm offering global databases,stra

27、tegic advisory and research products for energy companies and suppliers,investors,investment banks,organizations,and governments.Headquarters:Rystad Energy,Fjordallen 16,0250 Oslo,NorwayAmericas+1(281)-231-2600 EMEA+47 908 87 700 Asia Pacific+65 690 93 715 Email: Copyright.All rights reserved.MISSIO

28、N SOLAR EXPLORE EUROPES NEXT ENERGY FRONTIERSPEAKERIrene MihaiPolicy Officer,RPIA-Romanian Photovoltaic Industry AssociationInstalled power in electricity generation capacitiesTotal:18,286,03 MWSource:ANRE,2024Renewable energy capacities in RomaniaSource:Code of Good Practice,2023Overview01114910221

29、2231302137213751386139213911393139416302168541715002008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Utility-scaleProsumersSource:ANREThe evolution of Romanias installed capacity solar PV(MW)Market drivers1.Natural factors high irradiation across the country 2.Permitting time 1.5 years

30、/2 years3.Funds:over 20 bln.EUR available 4.Regulatory improvements5.High level of social acceptability and acceptanceContact us+40 731 650 014Irene.mihairpia.roOfficerpia.rowww.rpia.roRPIA-Romanian Photovoltaic Industry AssociationMISSION SOLAR EXPLORE EUROPES NEXT ENERGY FRONTIERSPEAKERJan KrcmarC

31、EO,Czech Solar AssociationCZECHIA:BACK AMONG THE GIGAWATT-MARKETSJan KrcmarSolar Power Summit 2024Brussels,March 2024232023:RETURN AFTER YEARS OF SLUMBER23Connected in 202162 MWpConnected in 2022289 MWpConnected in 2023970 MWpDETAILS24Connected in 2023970 MWpTotal number of PVP82 799Growth in MWp co

32、mpared to 2022236%2023Connected in 2022289 MWpTotal number of PVP33 760Growth in MWp compared to 2021366%2022SEGMENTSGrowth still relies on rooftops withresidentials still themain driver.Approx 80 000 residentialsystems totalling 823 MWp2 730 B2B systems totalling 147 MWp11.7 kWpaverage size of powe

33、r plant(8,6 kWp in 2022)25 PV projects above 1 MWptotalling 67.1 MWp26Growth still slower than in other countries92,3(27)W/cSource:Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2023 2027,Solrn asociace131(129)W/cINTERNATIONAL COMPARISONSeveral key legislative changes plus overal situation in the Czech energ

34、y sectorREASONS TO BE CHEERFULA Ad dmmi in nistraistrativtive e b ba arrierriersrsGo-To-Zones being preparedAgri-PV expected this yearNew,central permitting office established G Gr ri id d c co on nn ne ectionctionNew types of connection approvedFunding available for DSOs to strengthen gridMaps of c

35、onnectivity being preparedAlready approx 20 GWp of capacity reservedC Cz ze ec ch h e en ne er rgy gy s se ec ctortorLarge fossil(coal)base+industry=room for PV!THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTIONJ Ja an n K Kr r mm Executive directorCzech Solar AssociationE jan.krcmarsolarniasociace.czT+420 773 032 182MIS

36、SION SOLAR EXPLORE EUROPES NEXT ENERGY FRONTIERSPEAKERNikola GazdovChairman,ApsteMISSION SOLAR EXPLORE EUROPES NEXT ENERGY FRONTIERSPEAKERSJan KrcmarCEO,Czech Solar AssociationIrene MihaiPolicy Officer,RPIA-Romanian PhotovoltaicIndustry AssociationNikola GazdovChairman,ApsteVegard VollsetVice President and Head of the Renewables&Power Research for EMEA,Rystad EnergyBethany MebanHead of Press&Policy Communications,SolarPower Europe