新興太陽能市場——跟蹤變化發現非洲投資機會.pdf

《新興太陽能市場——跟蹤變化發現非洲投資機會.pdf》由會員分享，可在線閱讀，更多相關《新興太陽能市場——跟蹤變化發現非洲投資機會.pdf（46頁珍藏版）》請在三個皮匠報告上搜索。

1、MISSION SOLAR EXPLORE EUROPES NEXT ENERGY FRONTIERSide SessionEMERGING SOLAR MARKETS:TRACKING CHANGES AND SPOTTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR INVESTMENTS IN AFRICA Supported by:MISSION SOLAR EXPLORE EUROPES NEXT ENERGY FRONTIERSPEAKERSRethabile MelamuCEO,SAPVIAChristoph BothSenior Advisor,GET.investJeff Mura

2、geSenior Program Coordinator Energy,KFWThomas SauerPresident&CEO,TEXXECURE Rating FoundationJenny ChaseSolar analyst,BloombergNEFIns van OldeneelBusiness&Market Development Officer,Alliance for Rural ElectrificationSupported by:MISSION SOLAR EXPLORE EUROPES NEXT ENERGY FRONTIERSPEAKERThomas SauerPre

3、sident&CEO,TEXXECURE Rating Foundation0 SPE Summit EXX 2024 03-FINAL_Edition.pptx 5Business Confidential I 2024 by EXXERGY GmbHEmerging solar marketsTracking changes and spotting opportunities for investments in AfricaSolarPower SummitBrussels 5 March 20240 SPE Summit EXX 2024 03-FINAL_Edition.pptx

4、6Business Confidential I 2024 by EXXERGY GmbHWarm-up Question I-1An analog question in digital times:On an analog clock,what is the angle between the big hand and the small hand when the time is 3:16:20(a.m.or p.m.does not matter)?1.82.63.04.212340 SPE Summit EXX 2024 03-FINAL_Edition.pptx 7Business

5、 Confidential I 2024 by EXXERGY GmbHSub-Saharan Africa lets dive into subject matter46 48 countries(depending on source)24 M km(EU:4 M km)Population:1.2 B people(EU:450 M)GDP 2 T US$(1.700$/capita)Growth since 2000Population:2.5%-2.8%p.a.GDP:2%-6%p.a.(except 2020)GINI coefficient:Average:42,06Min.:G

6、uinea(29,6)=Comparable to EUMax.:South Africa(63)Electricity access rate:47%Sources:Worldbank,IEA,UN,WHO,Wikipedia)0 SPE Summit EXX 2024 03-FINAL_Edition.pptx 8Business Confidential I 2024 by EXXERGY GmbHThe grid in Sub-Saharan Africa vs.EuropeSources:Worldbank,ENTSO-E0 SPE Summit EXX 2024 03-FINAL_

7、Edition.pptx 9Business Confidential I 2024 by EXXERGY GmbHOverall Africa share of electric power sourceSource:IEA,2022Stand-AloneMini-GridGrid0 SPE Summit EXX 2024 03-FINAL_Edition.pptx 10Business Confidential I 2024 by EXXERGY GmbHSub-Saharan Africa Climate zones according to Kppen-GeigerSource:Bec

8、k et al.,Scientific data 50 SPE Summit EXX 2024 03-FINAL_Edition.pptx 11Business Confidential I 2024 by EXXERGY GmbHQuestion to the audienceWhat is your estimate re the size of the PV market in Sub-Saharan Africa?A.20 GWp0 SPE Summit EXX 2024 03-FINAL_Edition.pptx 13Business Confidential I 2024 by E

9、XXERGY GmbHImprintThomas C.Sauertcs.iecreexxergy.deEXXERGY GmbHTEXXECURE Rating GmbHAm Wasserbogen 28Huebstrasse 9D 82166 Grfelfing,GermanyCH-9402 Mrschwil/St.Gallen,SwitzerlandT+49 89 579545-30F+49 89 579545-31TEXXECURE Rating Foundation gGmbHDillenburger Str.33D 60439 Frankfurt am Main,GermanyT+49

10、 69 9510319-20F+49 69 9510319-10Internet Frankfurt Munich St.Gallen New York Phoenix San Diego Washington Hong Kong Shanghai MISSION SOLAR EXPLORE EUROPES NEXT ENERGY FRONTIERSPEAKERJenny ChaseSolar analyst,BloombergNEFMISSION SOLAR EXPLORE EUROPES NEXT ENERGY FRONTIERSPEAKERIns van OldeneelBusiness

11、&Market Development Officer,Alliance for Rural ElectrificationEmerging solar markets tracking changes and spotting opportunities for investments in AfricaSolar Power Europe Summit 5 March 202424GLOBAL ELECTRIFICATION STATS675 millionpeople without access to electricity1.5 billionpeople sufferingfrom

12、 unreliable electricity servicesNASASource:Tracking SDG 7,IEAWHO WE ARE The Alliance for Rural Electrification(ARE)is the international business association that promotes a sustainable decentralised renewable energy industry for the 21st century.ARE activates markets for affordable energy services a

13、nd creates local jobs and inclusive economies in Africa,Asia-Pacific and Latin America.GadgetroniX1.Business&MarketDevelopment3.Policy&Advocacy4.Communications&Marketing2.CapacityBuildingTechnologyTypesSolar PVHydroWindBioenergyGreen HydrogenEnergy storagePower componentsARE Membersat a glanceARE re

14、presents the entire DRE value chain from manufacturing,technology provision and investment to project development,installation,operations,maintenance and recycling.Company TypesInvestorsManufacturersTechnology ProvidersEPC/InstallersDevelopersAcademia/NGODRE SolutionSizesStand-alone SystemsMini-grid

15、sGrid-connectedRegionsSub-Saharan AfricaAsia-PacificLAC200+Members55+Countries3ContinentsWHO ARE THE MEMBERS?Business&Market Development Unlocking Business Potential:ARE Members get round the year business development support through ARE weekly alerts,matchmaking opportunities,fora,in-country events

16、,business delegations,webinars and capacity building workshops.B2B&B2Finance Matchmaking at ARE:ARE provides a unique opportunity enabling effective B2B&B2Finance matchmaking for Members.Capacity Building ARE organises Investment Academies to build the capacity of the local early-stage(M)SMEs in dev

17、eloping countries by offering them training programmes on business development and access to finance along with exposure to international investors.ARE organises a platform for exchange between financiers to collaborate and scale private sector initiatives in the DRE sector called the Financier Circ

18、le.Driven by AREs financier members,the ARE Financier Circle is only open to ARE financier members and meets quarterly to discuss pertinent topics related to private sector investments in the DRE sector.27How does ARE help the private sector to track changes and spot investment opportunities in SSA?

19、Policy&Advocacy ARE is part of the Global Gateway Business Advisory Group on Climate&Energy to strengthen public-private cooperation on Global Gateway strategy and implementation.ARE also supports the EU in identifying and formulating future DRE interventions in the energy space in 8 African countri

20、es,with a deeper focus on Nigeria and DRC.Energy Access Investment Forum(EAIF)Series EAIF is the top annual investment and industry event to scale investments in the renewable electrification sector in emerging markets.The Forum enables business and investor partnerships for renewable electrificatio

21、n,decarbonisation,economic growth and fighting against climate change.EAIF 2023 featured more than 1,500 participants(virtual+in-person)and included a high-level forum,side-events and an exhibition!28How does ARE help the private sector to track changes and spot investment opportunities in SSA?Renew

22、able Energy HouseRue dArlon 63-671040 BrusselsBelgiumareruralelec.org+32 2 400 10 00Contact us Virunga PowerMISSION SOLAR EXPLORE EUROPES NEXT ENERGY FRONTIERSPEAKERChristoph BothSenior Advisor,GET.investGET.investSolar Power Summit 2024-Brussels Emerging Solar Markets-Tracking changes and spotting

23、opportunities for investments in AfricaCHRISTOPH BOTHSenior AdvisorClean Cooking32Off-Grid Solar/Appliances(inc.PuE)Mini-Grids(incl.PuE)Captive PowerOn-Grid GenerationGuarantees for off-taker,sovereign risksEnablingEnvironment,Policy/RegulationProjects/Business ModelsFinancingUnlocking Investment in

24、 Energy MarketsLocal currency financing,FX hedging;capacity development for local financiers Viability gap grants(not just RBF,also upfront)New guarantees for off-takersEquity(patient,high risk appetite),junior debtGrants for last mile (e.g.RBF)Equity(patient,high risk appetite),working capital,ange

25、l/seed for early stage,junior debtGeneralInformed,state-of-the-art,consultative holistic energy sector planning/data and information Bankable,competent and capable offtakersBankable Market Access/Procurement schemesEnabling regulation,net-meteringAlignment with utility business modelBankable MarketA

26、ccess/Procurement schemesMaturing the business models:bundling,anchor customers,sector couplingMaturing Paygo business model:credit management,dataAttractive regulation of import duties and tariffs,standards(products and services),if possible VAT reduction or exemption(to counter fossil subsidies)To

27、p PriorityVery ImportantImportantDREC(all),Carbon Finance(in particular Clean Cooking)Supplier financing,bundling smaller clientsClean fuel production Smaller tickets,higher risk appetite+matching skillset and approach at financiersLess reliance on balance sheet finance,more receivables and other in

28、novative financing TA for project and business development,accelerator towards access to finance(where needed)07/03/202433Client journeysGET.invest proved instrumental in securing crucial working capital funding for our company,granting us access to investors that accelerated our growth journey.Mala

29、ngo Washikala,CEO,AltechDR Congo/clean energy products 12.3 million total investment volume“The support from GET.invest was instrumental in helping us secure financing from the likes of InfraCredit and Chapel Hill Denham Nigeria Infrastructure Debt Fund(NIDF).”Henry Ureh,Managing Director,Darway Coa

30、stNigeria/mini-grids21 million total investment volume“The GET.invest advisors have done a great job in supporting and coaching on the road to finance,which enabled us reaching several financing agreements.”Francine Munyaneza,CEO,MUNYAX ECORwanda/SHS3.3 million total projected investment volume“Than

31、ks to GET.invest we got this seal of approval which helped us improve our credibility towards our donors and investors.”Yosef Abramowitz,CEO,Gigawatt GlobalBurundi/IPP 12.7 million investment volume mobilisedMISSION SOLAR EXPLORE EUROPES NEXT ENERGY FRONTIERSPEAKERJeff MurageSenior Program Coordinat

32、or Energy,KFWBank aus VerantwortungKFWJeff.M.Murage.Solar Power Europe March2024.OUTLINE:36Financing instruments(overview).Solar PV in context SSAC&I spaceSolar PV context.C&I growth opportunityFinancing instruments.Total financial commitment in Kenya:664,499,712.36 EUR(2014-2023)Within the availabl

33、e East African countries:435,505,384.57 EUR(from 2016-2023)-Within the East African countries;only RE:274,982,022.40 EUR(2016-2013)-Within Kenya;only RE:125,000,000.00 EUR(2014-2023)-Within Kenya,only RE:45,000,000.00 EUR(2023 only)Overall,RE in East African countries:RE 149,982,022.40 EURREDUCEDINT

34、ERESTLOANSComplemente d by grant funds&provided to projects especially requiring the concessions.PROMOTI ONL LOANSCheaperthan destination market rates.Shorter tenures and typically little to no grants inbuilt.GRANTSOften complements project preparation and support projects(during&pre-commenceme nt).

35、RISK SHARING&TAGRMF(Geothermal)-Initial de-risking,Surface studies,Infrastructure support.TA via grant funds and GIZ as TAPartners.TA supportthe NepadIPPF,-(F/S,ESIA,etc.).37Solar PV in context,SSA 2023Decreasing LCOE&Storage R&DCapacity constraints vis increasing demand and reliability concernsPPAa

36、nd ESCO modeling in Kenya contexts.Grid costsKENYAC&I to date:June 23 KP-402.3 MW inC&I installed.(155MW SPV)11%of installed capacity overall.SPV 39%of all C&I investments.Driven By;2023 MWp,capacity installed,Source AFSIA38The C&I Growth opportunityC&I growth represents almost 80%of the total Afric

37、an solar growth2022 C&I 50%new capacity installed&65%in 2023Incremental grid costs and improved storage technology.Source AFSIA39Asanteni sana/Danke Schon!40MISSION SOLAR EXPLORE EUROPES NEXT ENERGY FRONTIERSPEAKERRethabile MelamuCEO,SAPVIA2023Business OverviewTopic:Emerging Solar Markets-Tracking C

38、hanges And Spotting Opportunities For Investments In AfricaEvent:Solar Power Summit 2024Date:TBC March 2024Presenter:Dr RB MelamuTHE VOICE OFSOLAR PV IN SOUTH AFRICAOUR MEMBERSM E M B E R S H I PProject developmentPV project ownership(as independent power producers)Engineering-procurement-constructi

39、on(EPC)Operations and maintenance(O&M)Manufacturing(OEMs)Embedded(roof-top)PV installationTraining,Consulting and ResearchFinance InstitutionsSMMEs(PVGC)PV Professionals(individuals)In 2024:Over 800 members,comprising2023Business OverviewEmerging Solar Markets-Tracking Changes And Spotting Opportuni

40、ties For Investments In Africa2023Solar PV in Sub Saharan Africa emerging as key regional power source Solar Resource and availability in SSAIncreasing Electricity access and Demand through 2030.Continuing Cost reduction of Solar modules and BOP.Distributed and modular nature of Solar PV:12V,Single

41、Phase,3 phase,BESS,Residential,C&I and Utility Scale.Electricity Demand Growth by Sector and Region Electricity access gained by technology 2030 Forecasted 2024 South African Solar PV Market Size.BNEF Q1 2024 PV Market Outlook Source:IEA Africa Energy Outlook 20222023Major changes to the SSA Energy

42、Landscape Market liberalisation:Kenya,Zambia and South Africa.Vertically integrated utilities splitting into Gx,Tx and Dx and variations thereof.Private sector participation in Generation,Transmission and distribution infrastructure investment Operating models:BOOT,Concession,Project finance.Regiona

43、l Interconnection:Southern African Power Pool,SAPP enabling energy trading New sources of Electricity Demand:Green Hydrogen in coastal regions with high solar resource.Electric vehicle uptake Increased electrification of Industry Southern African Power Pool IPPsEskom HoldingsTxITSMOEskomGenerationEs

44、komDistributionSOPlannerCPADay ahead+balancingmarketTraders&CustomersMunicDxsSource:UCT Power Futures LAB,Comments to Parliament Electricity Regulation Act Amendment Bill,Prof.A Eberhard,Nov 2023Tx/SOEskom HoldingsGenerationDxEskom5-8 YearsProposed South African ESI Model Restructuring:Eskom Separat

45、ion Emerging Solar Markets-Tracking Changes And Spotting Opportunities For Investments In Africa2023SSA Investment LandscapePublic,Grant and Blended finance key to derisking.Macroeconomic outlook.High Interest rates and WACC in SSA.Market developing.Risk of rent seeking and vested interests influenc

46、ing market structure.South AfricaImpact of Changing ESI on investment opportunities and Risk.Public vs Private ProcurementSingle buyer(Eskom)to Trading model Opportunities in Residential,C&I and Utility scale:SaaS,Bilateral PPA,Energy Trading.Missing middle.Middle income household access to Solar PV

47、.Innovative risk adjusted financing mechanism needed.Solar Investment in SSA:Opportunities and Risks According to BNEF,The SA electricity system needs at least an average$5.9 billion of investment in power generation per year over 2021-2040,and up to$7.1 billion per year to move towards a net-zero p

48、ower system by 2050.Electricity generation in South Africa,Economic Transition Scenario.BNEF SA Power Transition OutlookEmerging Solar Markets-Tracking Changes And Spotting Opportunities For Investments In AfricaCONTACT USA B O U T U SEastgate Office Park,Block A South Boulevard Road,BrumaJohannesbu

49、rg 2198 South AfricaAddress011 553 7264011 568 8464Phoneinfosapvia.co.za dewetsapvia.co.zaEmail2023w w w.s a p v i a.c o.z aMISSION SOLAR EXPLORE EUROPES NEXT ENERGY FRONTIERSPEAKERSRethabile MelamuCEO,SAPVIAChristoph BothSenior Advisor,GET.investJeff MurageSenior Program Coordinator Energy,KFWThomas SauerPresident&CEO,TEXXECURE Rating FoundationJenny ChaseSolar analyst,BloombergNEFIns van OldeneelBusiness&Market Development Officer,Alliance for Rural ElectrificationSupported by: