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1、Policy BriefAugust 2023Through a Glass,Darkly:Mapping Emerging Technologies and Their Supply ChainsUsing CSETs Map of Science and Supply Chain ExplorerAuthorJohn VerWeyCenter for Security and Emerging Technology|1 Executive Summary Emerging technologies are of keen interest to policymakers,private f

2、irms,and researchers because of their perceived economic and national security promise.Private firms and researchers hope to invent and commercialize the next ubiquitous technology.Governments want to understand what policies they can pursue to increase domestic innovation in these technologies and,

3、in some circumstances,deny adversaries access to these technologies.At the same time this interest in emerging technologies has spiked,ongoing supply chain interruptions have exposed the worldwide reliance and fragility of some technologies global value chains.This confluence of factors has highligh

4、ted shared challenges and opportunities:emerging technologies and supply chains are largely developed and controlled by private-sector firms.However,information about both can be revealed through careful analysis of public information.This information can inform policymakers efforts to increase comp

5、etitiveness in both emerging technologies and their supply chains.This paper argues that policymakers efforts to increase competitiveness in emerging technologies and resilience in supply chains should be closely coordinated and aligned.Efforts to identify emerging technologies and associated supply

6、 chains are challenged by the fundamental nature of emerging technologies.By definition,emerging technologies are new and rapidly changing,making them hard to track.Because these technologies are inherently immature,the underlying supply chain of people,processes,products,services,information,and re

7、sources that supports the technology is difficult to define.Additionally,technology development is diffuse and occurs in universities,firms,and government labs,often simultaneously and across borders.Academia,industry,and government have attempted to identify emerging technologies for decades.Each o

8、f the analytical approaches used by academia,industry,and government comes with trade-offs.This work is inherently speculative and predictive.There is no agreed-upon methodology for identifying emerging technology.In contrast,the concept of supply chain security is much more mature.Industry maintain

9、s a wide variety of supply chain risk management practices designed to increase resilience,there is an active field of academic research focused on mapping global value chains,and governments have experience managing supply chains,particularly those relevant to national security.Center for Security

10、and Emerging Technology|2 Efforts to identify emerging technologies and increase supply chain security both require,and profit from,the same analytic base.This paper first assesses the challenges of promoting emerging technologies and the tools that may assist in this.It then turns to supply chains

11、and shows how the similar sources of information and analytical methods can increase resilience.This paper concludes with a template policymakers could use to map emerging technology supply chains based on two tools developed by CSETs Emerging Technology Observatory(ETO):the Map of Science and the S

12、upply Chain Explorer.Center for Security and Emerging Technology|3 Table of Contents Executive Summary.1 Introduction.4 Background:Why Emerging Technologies and Supply Chains?.8 Identifying Emerging Technologies.11 Identifying Emerging Technologies:Sources of Information.11 Identifying Emerging Tech

13、nologies:Methods.12 Mapping Supply Chains.16 Mapping Supply Chains:Sources of Information.17 Mapping Supply Chains:Methods.19 Emerging Technology Supply Chains.23 Identifying Emerging Technologies Worth Mapping.23 Mapping Emerging Technology Supply Chains.25 Conclusion.28 Author.30 Acknowledgments.3

14、0 Appendix 1.Recent U.S.Government Requests for Comment/Information (RFIs,RFCs)Related to Supply Chains and Strategies to Protect and Promote Emerging Technologies.31 Appendix 2.Emerging Technology Attributes.33 Endnotes.35 Center for Security and Emerging Technology|4 Introduction Governments aroun

15、d the world are engaged in policymaking to protect and promote emerging technologies.*In particular,governments in Europe,the United States,and Asia are all pursuing policies and regulations designed to cultivate emerging technology innovation at a pace that exceeds competitors(“promote”)and deny pe

16、rceived competitors access to these technologies(“protect”).1 A similar paradigm exists with respect to supply chains,with policymakers focused on increasing domestic supply chain resilience to minimize future disruptions(“promote”)while also leveraging supply chain choke points under their control

17、to slow perceived competitors ascendence(“protect”).This paper asserts that policymakers efforts to protect and promote emerging technologies and supply chains should be inextricably linked.The former is much more speculative and necessarily predictive,while the latter is much more concrete and urge

18、nt.However,the underlying analytic effort draws on the same sources of information and methodological approach.Efforts to protect and promote emerging technologies will be made stronger by borrowing sources and methods from the supply chain security world,and vice versa.The current focus on emerging

19、 technologies is largely due to the shared perception that looming advances in key areas such as biotechnology,artificial intelligence/machine learning(AI/ML),quantum computing,and advanced classical computing will confer asymmetric economic and national security advantages in the coming decades.For

20、 example,the first country to successfully develop a quantum computer that exceeds the capabilities of classical computers would theoretically be able to achieve singular advances in drug discovery,weather forecasting,encryption-breaking,and other computationally intensive tasks.However,from a suppl

21、y chain perspective,efforts to protect and promote quantum computing are only as good as *The concepts of“emerging technology,”“converging technology,”and“disruptive technology”are all distinct,but interrelated.For the purposes of this paper,an emerging technology is“a relatively fast growing and ra

22、dically novel technology characterized by a certain degree of coherence persisting over time and with the potential to exert a considerable impact on socio-economic domain(s).”Daniele Rotolo,Diana Hicks,and Ben R.Martin,“What Is an Emerging Technology?”arXiv:1503.00673v4(2015),https:/arxiv.org/abs/1

23、503.00673.Appendix 2 contains additional context.While it is a common assumption that the“first mover”on an emerging technology gains asymmetric advantages,it is an open question whether this is actually true or whether any such advantage obtained is significant.Center for Security and Emerging Tech

24、nology|5 efforts to protect and promote the underlying supply of dilution refrigerators,high-density ribbon cables,and specialty wiring that enable quantum processors.2 There is an overwhelming amount of information on emerging technologies today.By one count,there were at least 78 lists of emerging

25、 technologies published by government,industry,academia,journalists,and nonprofits in recent years.3 However,general lists that identify“artificial intelligence”as an emerging technology are of limited utility for policymakers.4 A more rigorous and granular approach is necessary to identify and map

26、these technologies to characterize how one countrys industry is doing relative to another and what policies might protect and promote innovation.Policymakers must understand which entities(from individuals to firms)lead;the scope,scale,and pace of their efforts;and what market opportunities and fail

27、ures exist.Leveraging sources and methods traditionally employed in service of supply chain security can empower policymakers to take a more rigorous and granular approach.Policymakers face several challenges in their efforts to map emerging technologies and their supply chains.Definitional uncertai

28、nty:There is no agreed-upon set of criteria used to identify a technology as“emerging.”Pace of progress:By definition,emerging technologies change quickly.Frequently,the speed with which an emerging technology develops exceeds policymakers ability to characterize and analyze the technology.Incomplet

29、e or proprietary data:Most emerging technology innovation occurs in the private sector.Absent the ability to directly evaluate progress being made on a particular technology,policymakers need access to high-fidelity information sources that can serve as a proxy to identify a particular technologys p

30、otential emergence and its underlying supply chain.This information is frequently overwhelming,disorganized,and has a short half-life as the technology continues to emerge.These specific challenges are compounded by emerging technologys general unpredictability.Even in instances where a technology i

31、s well defined,its pace of progress is characterized,and associated information is known,it is difficult to judge which policy interventions will most productively protect and promote emerging technologies.The literature on prediction suggests that human desire for prediction will always exceed huma

32、n ability to predict.5 This is especially true in the context of national security challenges and emerging technology,where governments must make investments in technologies to address perceived future threats.All of these challenges are magnified by the increasing desire to conduct comparative asse

33、ssments Center for Security and Emerging Technology|6 of U.S.technology capabilities and trajectories relative to developments in other countries.These challenges are not abstract.The U.S.government regularly solicits public comment and expertise to inform policymaking,particularly on efforts aimed

34、at protecting and promoting emerging technologies as well as supply chains.A review of 20 such solicitations for public comment(See Table 1 and Appendix 1)from 2018present indicates that policymakers are asking the same questions about emerging technologies and supply chains:how U.S.competitiveness

35、compares to other countries,what observable risks exist,what policymakers can do to address these risks and increase U.S.competitiveness domestically,and how the United States can work internationally to establish and maintain leadership in emerging technologies and build resilient supply chains.Whe

36、ther policymakers are considering the imposition of new export controls on brain computer interfaces,how best to increase U.S.research and development in artificial intelligence,or characterizing risks in semiconductor supply chains for defense systems,the information they seek is generally publicly

37、 available,but it is frequently technical,proprietary,poorly organized,and unconsolidated.Center for Security and Emerging Technology|7 Table 1.Key Subjects of Recent U.S.Government Requests for Information(RFIs)on Supply Chains and Emerging Technologies Subject Supply Chain Context Emerging Technol

38、ogy Context Technology Definition Which technology supply chains are“critical”How to identify“emerging”technologies Technology Mapping What domestic sectoral capabilities exist;what capabilities exist overseas Which academics,companies,and countries are engaged in R&D of a particular technology Comp

39、etitiveness Whether domestic production can meet domestic demand and,if not,what is net import reliance How does U.S.research quality compare with the rest of the world(e.g.,citation intensity)Technology Ecosystem How does the U.S.supply chain compare with/integrate with the worldwide supply chain W

40、hat enabling technologies support emerging technology R&D,and from whom are they sourced Technology Pace of Progress How mature and/or substitutable is the technology,what is the Technology Readiness Level(TRL)What is the pace of progress,path to commercialization,and timeline Technology Leadership

41、Who are the leading suppliers of a particular technology,what alternatives exist Where is the best/most advanced research being conducted and by whom Workforce Is the domestic workforce sufficient(e.g.,scale,skills)to meet domestic production requirements Where are leading researchers employed and l

42、ocated International Collaboration Can supply be diversified through an increase in allied production What are the primary avenues for collaboration between researchers Risks Do any choke points(e.g.,single,sole-source suppliers)exist in terms of technology or companies;what vulnerabilities exist Ar

43、e there roadblocks(e.g.,regulatory,technical)that will affect the pace of innovation;does a technology present national security risk Government Options What can policymakers do to increase supply chain resilience What can policymakers do to protect and promote a given technologys development Source

44、:Authors compilation,derived from sources cited in Appendix 1.Center for Security and Emerging Technology|8 This paper addresses each of the aforementioned challenges sequentially.First,it reviews past and current efforts to identify emerging technologies to date.Second,it provides background on pub

45、lic and private-sector supply chain security and risk management efforts.Third,it reviews CSETs Map of Science and Supply Chain Explorer,two recently introduced tools that policymakers can use to identify emerging technologies and map them.It reviews how these tools integrate best practices used for

46、 identifying emerging technologies and mapping supply chains,respectively,serving as a starting point for policymakers interesting in mapping emerging technology supply chains.Background:Why Emerging Technologies and Supply Chains?Economic Competitiveness The economic promise of emerging technologie

47、s is well understood by policymakers who have observed the rise of leading hardware and software technology companies in the preceding decades.Germanys“hidden champions,”6 Chinas“Big 4”tech giants(Baidu,Alibaba,Tencent,and Xiaomi),and the United States“Big 5”tech giants(Alphabet Google,Amazon,Apple,

48、Meta Facebook,and Microsoft)all enjoy large market shares.These leading positions protect them from competition and provide them with profit margins sufficient to fund internal R&D efforts to perpetuate their leading positions.For example,Googles 90 percent search engine market share fuels its 25 pe

49、rcent market share in U.S.digital ad sales,the profits from which are used to fund moon-shot projects,such as its Quantum Artificial Intelligence initiative.7 Policymakers assume private firms that establish meaningful leads in todays emerging technologies will enjoy similar competitive positions in

50、 the coming decades because of their first-mover advantages.*As a result,policymakers are undertaking efforts aimed at identifying and promoting innovation in emerging technologies to ensure the next tech giants are housed in their respective countries.*Note,however,that there is a body of research

51、that disagrees with this assumption.A survey of 65 million publications,patents,and software products from 19542014 demonstrated that,across this period of time,smaller teams tend to disrupt science and technology with new ideas and opportunities,whereas larger teams tend to develop existing ones.Th

52、is suggests major incumbents struggle to develop emerging or disruptive technologies.Lingfei Wu,Dashun Wang,and James A.Evans,“Large teams develop and small teams disrupt science and technology,”Nature 566,(2019):378382,https:/ for Security and Emerging Technology|9 National Security The national se

53、curity promise of emerging technologies is similarly well understood by policymakers.Countries attempt to fund and cultivate domestic technology capabilities that confer comparative military advantages,while pursuing policies to mitigate any perceived technology advantages enjoyed by competitors mil

54、itaries.During the Cold War,U.S.investments in the nuclear navy,precision navigation,stealth aircraft,and intercontinental ballistic missile technology were all motivated by defense priorities and,for a time,conferred asymmetric military advantage.Over time,some of these technologies have become com

55、mercialized and todays commercial nuclear power sector,global positioning systems,carbon fiber composite manufacturers,and orbital rocket launch industry all owe some of their success to earlier government-funded investments that pushed associated technologies toward emergence.Emerging Technology Co

56、mpetition and the Private Sector Importantly,all of the aforementioned defense technologies were invented and commercialized using extensive government-directed funding and,in many cases,came about because of innovation occurring in government labs.Historically,this gave governments good visibility

57、into the pace of progress in specific emerging technologies and provided policymakers with options to cultivate and control the supply chain of a given technology.The majority of emerging technology innovation today is occurring in the private sector,where firms are developing and commercializing te

58、chnologies that have clear economic promise,but may also confer military advantage.For example,advanced battery technology being developed by an automotive firm for use in electric vehicles may result in breakthroughs in energy density ratios for batteries more generally,which could have important p

59、erformance benefits for aerial and underwater autonomous vehicles fielded by the military.*These so-called“dual-use”technologies present a particular challenge for policymakers,who must carefully interpret public and private information to identify and evaluate which technologies hold economic and n

60、ational security promise worthy of protection and promotion.Notably,both the United States and China have passed new export control laws in the past five years to restrict the transfer of particular software,equipment,and knowledge essential for emerging technology development.8 The United States 20

61、18 *These potential breakthroughs could also benefit soldiers who today carry a significant weight of batteries into combat.This weight is compounded because batteries for different systems are incompatible,so they have to carry spare batteries for every device.Center for Security and Emerging Techn

62、ology|10 Export Control Reform Act mandated that the U.S.Department of Commerces Bureau of Industry and Security(BIS)the U.S.governments lead agency tasked with protecting dual-use technologiesbegin a process of identifying so-called“emerging”9 and“foundational”10 technologies for new controls.11 In

63、 response,BIS placed new controls on 38 technologies from 2018 to 2022 before walking back its attempts to identify technologies as“emerging”or“foundational”in May 2022 because of difficulties defining,and distinguishing between,the two.12 Simultaneously,both the United States and China have passed

64、laws allocating billions in support to specific emerging technology industries to promote innovation and“win the race by running faster.”These efforts have focused on(1)identifying particular technologies as“critical”or“emerging,”*(2)assessing competitiveness in these technologies relative to peers

65、and competitors,and(3)determining what policies could increase and accelerate innovation.For example,the United States recently passed the CHIPS and Science Act,allocating$52 billion to increase semiconductor manufacturing capacity in the United States,while China is reportedly contemplating a$143 b

66、illion response focused on increasing its own domestic chip production capacity.13 This focus,however,invites the question of which particular semiconductor technologies are important for policymakers interested in promoting(and protecting)this contested industry.Answering this question requires tha

67、t policymakers develop a holistic understanding of the worldwide semiconductor supply chain,as well as a more general framework for evaluating emerging technology supply chains.Because nearly all emerging technology development is happening in the private sector,governments must carefully interpret

68、open-source information to assess relative strengths and weaknesses.*See,for example,Chinas Made in 2025 list and the U.S.Critical and Emerging Technologies List.Center for Security and Emerging Technology|11 Identifying Emerging Technologies Identifying Emerging Technologies:Sources of Information

69、There is a wide variety of publicly available and commercially available information that provides insight into emerging technology innovation and progress(Table 2).This presents challenges and opportunities for policymakers.To be sure,nearly all emerging technology development is happening in the p

70、rivate sector,so a great deal of information is not shared publicly.For example,Googles X division(colloquially known as its“moon-shot factory”)places a wide variety of high-risk,high-reward bets on technologies,but public knowledge of these technologies and their underlying supply chain is limited

71、to what Google chooses to divulge.However,firms also face commercial incentives to publicize and protect their innovation,especially through journal articles,patent filings,standards-setting organizations,and conferences.Careful scrutiny of these data sources can reveal information about the nature

72、and pace of a technologys development,which researchers lead the field,and what firms assess to be the next high-risk,high-reward technology.Table 2.Select Sources of Information Relevant to Emerging Technology Assessments Type of Data Example Resources Patent Filings USPTO;Google Patents;PatSnap;Di

73、mensions Digital Science;Lens Journal Articles SSRN;Semantic Scholar;arXiv;CiteSpace;VOSviewer;Clarivate Web of Science;the Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure(CNKI);Dimensions Digital Science;Scopus;OpenAlex;Lens Investment Data(Mergers,Acquisitions,Joint Ventures,Funding Rounds)Crunchbase;Pi

74、tchbook;CB Insights;Refinitiv Public Research and Development Expenditures USASpending;Fraunhofer Society;National Science Foundation;Dimensions Digital Science Technical Standards-Setting Organizations ISO;JEDEC;3GPP;O-RAN Alliance;5GAA Medicine,Chemistry MeSH;PubMed;SciFinder Software Development

75、GitHub;AIminer;Papers with Code Conference Proceedings and Conventions HotChips;SC;IEEE;SRC;ACM Source:Authors compilation.Center for Security and Emerging Technology|12 The sources of information described in Table 2 have trade-offs.Some resources are limited by language(e.g.,they are only availabl

76、e in English),scope(e.g.,they cover a narrow topic),technical depth(e.g.,they are not intelligible to lay users),cost(e.g.,they are paywalled),time series(e.g.,they cover a limited period of time and/or are not frequently updated),reliability(e.g.,they are crowdsourced or unvetted),or terms and cond

77、itions that restrict their use.Conversely,some resources are open to the public,free,easily navigated,and allow users to filter by desired characteristics,but they do not offer downloadable metadata or lack user-friendly interfaces.There is no one resource that provides worldwide coverage of high-fi

78、delity data on emerging technology development.However,by combining and interpreting information from different sources(i.e.,comparing patent filings,academic publications,and public R&D funding for a specific technology),it is possible to characterize an emerging technologys development.For example

79、,a technology that displays intensive patent filings and publications relative to a decade ago is exhibiting growth that may make it“emerging.”Conversely,a technology that lacks a community of interest and has no record of affiliated venture capital investments may be either too ahead of,or behind,i

80、ts time to be considered“emerging.”Identifying Emerging Technologies:Methods There is an overwhelming amount of relevant,but disorganized,information available to spot“signals”of emerging technology,and various methodological approaches are used.Efforts to identify technology emergence have occurred

81、 for decades.These efforts cross disciplines and include the philosophy of science,14 progress studies,15 foresight,16 infometrics,17 scientometrics,18 bibliometrics,19 and network science,20 among others.A 2015 survey of attempts to identify emerging technologies identified five attributes in acade

82、mic literature characteristic of emerging technologies:(1)radical novelty,(2)relatively fast growth,(3)coherence,(4)prominent impact,and(5)uncertainty or ambiguity(see Appendix 2 for greater detail and examples of each characteristic).21 Policymakers interested in identifying emerging technologies c

83、an use the aforementioned sources of information to filter for these signals,and tools have been developed to that end,but a scalable solution is required.The volume and complexity of information on worldwide science and technology development necessitates tools for aggregation and analysis.The Nati

84、onal Science Foundation estimates there were 2.9 million academic articles published in 2020.22 That same year,the U.S.Patent and Trademark Office received 646,000 patent applications.23 Many search engines and tools allow users to explore relevant Center for Security and Emerging Technology|13 info

85、rmation such as publications(e.g.,arXiv),government funding(e.g.,USAspending),investment(e.g.,Pitchbook),and patent filings(e.g.,Google Patents)to assess a particular technology.However,these stand-alone services lack essential qualitative context and are not scalable for policymakers interested in

86、interpreting trends across technical fields worldwide.For example,no resource exists where policymakers can simultaneously compare worldwide public and private-sector funding of research on sodium-ion batteries as well as associated patent and publication activity.And,even if such a resource existed

87、,policymakers might not have access to the subject matter expertise needed to make sense of arcane technical areas of emerging research or of the underlying supply chain that supports the battery ecosystem writ large.Academic Methods Academic efforts to identify emerging technologies attempt to aggr

88、egate progress across fields of study to inform future research priorities.Experts have tried to create maps of scientific domains to identify emerging technologies for over 50 years.24 A recent survey of scientometric and bibliometric visualization and analysis software identified 16 current progra

89、ms used to extract,process,and visualize data on science based on publication and citation metrics.25 In general,these tools function by ingesting large volumes of information from separate academic journals,preprocessing that data(de-duplicating,text segmentation),cross referencing the data(also re

90、ferred to as“normalization”),clustering(grouping together datapoints by topic or subtopic),and providing some network visualization function to demonstrate relationships between subject areas,time series,citation intensity,and other proxies for innovation or emergence.26 There are likely dozens of a

91、dditional software platforms that offer similar functionality,*including CSETs Map of Science(discussed below),as well as more generic services that offer text mining and visualization that could be applied to emerging technologies.However,they all come with trade-offs.These tools vary widely in ter

92、ms of scope,relevance,and access.For example,some of the free open-access platforms are focused on a specific academic discipline,lack the ability to integrate non-English publications,or irregularly ingest updated publications.Industry Methods The private sector engages in efforts to identify emerg

93、ing technologies to assess opportunity and risk.Private-sector“horizon scanning”and“foresight”efforts are *For example,a separately cultivated list includes an additional roughly 10 services:Hamid R.Jamali,“Scientometric Portal,”https:/ for Security and Emerging Technology|14 distinct from academic

94、methods in their focus on identifying commercial opportunity.27 Firms such as Boeing and Intel have business intelligence arms specifically designed to identify and invest in the next generation of aviation and semiconductor technologies,respectively,to protect their leading positions.Large multinat

95、ional corporations also maintain market intelligence units tasked with managing their existing supply chains,evaluating patent filings,and understanding how their companys products compare with competitors.Similarly,the venture capital industry makes investments in start-ups based on evaluations of

96、their potential for growth,market share,and perceived demand signals.Venture capitalists also closely monitor worldwide investment trends to identify technologies that are seeing growing levels of investment.28 Private-sector methods to identify emerging technologies are narrowly tailored and priori

97、tize commercial opportunity over strategic value.In practice,these efforts attempt to identify“low-risk”emerging technologies that promise quick returns and/or solve a discrete problem.A recent study observed that,because venture capital investors usually solicit funds for a 10-year period,they are

98、incentivized to invest in software and services start-ups and away from start-ups engaged in hardware,materials science,and technology that is perceived to be“less nimble.”29 Relatedly,corporate research and development arms engaged in technology development focus their funds on applied R&D for narr

99、ow use cases,as opposed to capital-intensive basic R&D.30 Firms assess the opportunity and risk of a particular technology with respect to their business and lack incentives to invest R&D budget in a technology for which they do not perceive commercial promise.Government Methods Governments undertak

100、e efforts to identify emerging technologies“to avoid science and technology surprise,to inflict surprise on adversaries,and to leverage advances for the benefit of the nation.”31 These efforts inform policymakers prioritization of research and development investment and divestment,expert identificat

101、ion and collaboration,military advantage,and technology transfer.The U.S.government has previously established entities tasked with monitoring and evaluating technology,such as the Office of Technology Assessments.While this office was disbanded in 1995,other governments maintain offices with simila

102、r functions,such as Germanys TAB,the United Kingdoms Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology,the Swiss Foundation for Technology Assessment,and the European Commissions Joint Research Centre(JRC).32 Center for Security and Emerging Technology|15 Weak Signals in Science and Technologies in 202

103、133“Early identification of todays emerging technologies is key for the design of new policies by policymakers,who need to be made aware of potentially disrupting technologies or scientific development as early as possible to develop well-fitted policies that secure both a stable business environmen

104、t for industrial actors and a safe and secure society for citizens to live in.”-Joint Research Centre,European Commission One model that U.S.policymakers could choose to emulate is the European Commissions JRC,which is tasked with technology monitoring and assessment on behalf of European policymake

105、rs.As part of this function,the JRC introduced a new iteration of a web-based platform in 2019 called the Tools for Innovation Monitoring(TIM)system.Simultaneously,the JRC released the first of a now-annual series of reports called“Weak signals in science and technologies.”34 The JRC has also create

106、d custom instances of this tool focused on specific subjects,including energy,cybersecurity,dual-use technologies,and emerging technologies.35 These instances allow users to filter information in a variety of other manners,visualizing how technology competitiveness compares between countries and res

107、earch institutions.The JRC has also conducted related research on specific supply chains.36 Current U.S.government efforts to identify emerging technologies are decentralized and spread across various agencies.Notably,the Department of Homeland Security maintains a science and technology horizon-sca

108、nning team,37 the Department of Defense has a science and technology futures office as well as the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency(DARPA),38 and the Government Accountability Office has a Science and Technology Assessment division.39 This is an indicative,not exhaustive,list of current U.S

109、.government efforts and reflects the fragmented approach the U.S.government has taken to date.These entities are generally designed to evaluate technologies with reference to their specific departmental taskings,not on behalf of the whole U.S.government.In addition to technology evaluation to avoid

110、strategic surprise,U.S.government efforts to identify emerging technologies are meant to help prioritize federal research and development funds.Thirteen U.S.government agencies distribute$24.9 billion(as of FY21)to 42 Federally Funded Research and Development Centers(FFRDCs)engaged in basic and appl

111、ied science and technology research.40 A separate system of Center for Security and Emerging Technology|16 Department of Defense University Affiliated Research Centers(UARCs)provide engineering,research,and development capabilities for the military.41 The National Science Foundation tracks research

112、in the United States and worldwide to determine which research topics,and researchers,to fund.In practice,the NSF maintains grants and cooperative agreements with more than two thousand education institutions and receives over 42,000 proposals per year to fund advances in science and technology.42 T

113、rends in science and technology are reviewed in the context of funding decisions to prioritize the basic and applied research undertaken by these FFRDCs,UARCs,and NSF grantees.*The most recent systematic attempt by the U.S.government to identify emerging technologies was undertaken by the Intelligen

114、ce Advanced Research Projects Activity(IARPA).Beginning in 2010,IARPA funded a program called Foresight and Understanding from Scientific Exposition(FUSE)to“develop automated methods that aid in the systematic,continuous,and comprehensive assessment of technical emergence using publicly available in

115、formation found in published scientific,technical and patent literature.”43 A related IARPA program,Forecasting Science&Technology(ForeST),built on FUSE to“develop and test methods for generating accurate forecasts for significant science and technology(S&T)milestones.”44 However,U.S.government effo

116、rts to date do not systematically leverage and integrate the scale of open-source science and technology information available today to identify emerging technologies to inform policymakers.While this challenge has been observed for decades,it has recently gained new urgency given the importance of

117、protecting and promoting the science and technology ecosystem in the context of strategic competition.45 In response to a perceived need for greater centralization and persistent technology scanning,proposals to create a National Techno-Economic Intelligence Center,a Center for Global Competition An

118、alysis,and/or a Technology Competitiveness Council are currently under consideration.46 Mapping Supply Chains Every supply chain is complex in its own way.47 This presents a challenge for policymakers interested in mapping a particular technologys supply chain.For example,the supply chain for nonphy

119、sical services such as artificial intelligence algorithms loosely consist of data,software,hardware,and workforce.48 Conversely,the supply chains for a physical product such as an electric vehicle battery loosely *Note:the scale and breadth of federal research and development funding efforts is far

120、greater than the indicative examples described here.Center for Security and Emerging Technology|17 consist of raw materials,processed materials,subcomponents,manufacturing,and recycling.49 Policymakers engaged in efforts to protect and promote emerging technologies are asking questions and solicitin

121、g answers that have traditionally been the purview of supply chain analysis.Until recently,private-sector supply chain analysis was the remit of procurement experts,private-sector risk managers,and academics who were concerned with understanding international commerce through the lens of how product

122、s and services get delivered on time,to specification,and at the quoted cost.Government interest in supply chains shared these priorities,with an added emphasis on minimizing the possibility that corrupt or counterfeit components ended up in national security systems.This is changing,however,as poli

123、cymakers have begun to ask questions related to techno-economic competition following the widely publicized recent supply chain disruptions.Policymakers interested in understanding how a product or service is made,who leading domestic and international vendors are,where they are located,what alterna

124、tives exist,and the delta between domestic production and consumption are asking questions that supply chain analysis is empowered to answer.The uniqueness of each supply chain complicates efforts to develop a technology mapping template and,frequently,supply chains overlap or become cyclical.For ex

125、ample,while the commercial aviation,semiconductor,and AI supply chains are all distinct,each of them connects to one another.The AI supply chain relies on the semiconductor supply chain for hardware,while the semiconductor supply chain relies on the commercial aviation industry for transportation lo

126、gistics.50 Relatedly,AI algorithms increasingly accelerate semiconductor design times,while semiconductors form the foundational components for all electrical components in aircraft and their avionics systems.51 Mapping Supply Chains:Sources of Information*Technology supply chains are often entirely

127、 commercial and outside government control.Additionally,limited data is available at the multiple tiers of vendors located in countries around the world,making this effort more complex.“Tiers”refer to different levels in a supply chain.Supply chain tiers are easily understood by thinking about *This

128、 section is partially derived from:John VerWey,“U.S.-China Competition in Global Supply Chains,”U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission,June 2022,https:/www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2022-06/John_VerWey_Testimony.pdf.Center for Security and Emerging Technology|18 aircraft manufacturing

129、.A plane is provided by an original equipment manufacturer.This OEM relies on Tier 1 vendors to provide various components such as wings,engines,avionics,and tires.Tier 1 vendors rely on Tier 2 vendors to supply subcomponents.For example,avionics suppliers rely on electronic assemblies.These Tier 2

130、suppliers rely on Tier 3 suppliers for items that go into electronic assemblies,such as printed circuit boards and integrated circuits.And these Tier 3 suppliers rely on Tier 4 suppliers for equipment used to fabricate PCBs and ICs.Finally,Tier 4 suppliers rely on Tier 5 suppliers for raw materials,

131、such as silicon.Mapping supply chains gets progressively more difficult the“deeper”one looks into the tiers.Frequently,OEMs do not have good visibility into their Tier 4 and Tier 5 suppliers.A supply chain map represents the relationship between tiers of vendors and value-added production stages.The

132、 sources of information academia,industry,and government rely on for supply chain analysis are the same:company filings and annual reports,company due diligence software,international trade statistics,bill of lading data,market research,and supply chain due diligence software.These sources of inform

133、ation serve as proxies policymakers can use to answer each of the aforementioned questions as well as understand the tiers of a particular supply chain,regardless of their use case or the technology in question.Table 3.Select Sources of Information Relevant to Supply Chain Mapping Type of Data Examp

134、le Resources Company Filings and Annual Reports SEC/EDGAR;Investor Relations presentations;ESG reports Company Due Diligence Software Dun and Bradstreet;Descartes Visual Compliance;Accurint;Experian;Equifax International Trade/Commerce Data and Bill of Lading Information UN Comtrade;Panjiva(now S&P

135、Global);BACI;ImportYeti;Descartes Datamyne Market Research Services Bloomberg;IHS Markit(now S&P Global);IDC;Omdia;Gartner Supply Chain Due Diligence Software Exiger;Govini;Interos;Vertical Knowledge Industry Association Reports and Datasets SEMI;National Venture Capital Association;Semiconductor In

136、dustry Association Source:Authors compilation.Center for Security and Emerging Technology|19 While no one resource offers a complete picture of a companys operations,combining sources of information can help map a company(or technologys)supply chain.Publicly traded companies in the United States are

137、 required to disclose information about their business activities quarterly and annually.These filings,which vary in terms of length and detail,provide summaries of a companys worldwide operations,suppliers,customers,property,plants,equipment,risks,and opportunities.52 Company due diligence software

138、 and supply chain due diligence software adds another level of granularity,providing details about specific company locations,subsidiaries,joint ventures,ownership,leadership,and risk signals(e.g.,foreign ownership,control,and influence).International trade data allows for analysis of imports and ex

139、ports by commodity by country,while international commerce/bill of lading data allows for analysis of imports and exports by company,by commodity,and by country.Finally,market research services summarize expert opinion regarding specific industries current competitiveness and future risks and opport

140、unities.Mapping Supply Chains:Methods The sources of information presented in Table 3 are used by procurement,contracts,and compliance personnel in the public and private sectors to assess,manage,and mitigate supply chain risk.This section discusses academic,industry,and U.S.government interests in

141、supply chains generally,as well as supply chain mapping specifically.Academic Methods Supply chains are studied academically in two distinct veins of research:business and economics/political science.The former field focuses on supply chain analysis in the context of procurement,logistics,warehousin

142、g,inventory,and risk management.A recent review of this literature found that the most influential supply chain papers focused on managing supply chain risks and disruptions,explaining supply chain resilience and agility,sourcing strategies,and the impact of disruptions on company activities.53 This

143、 field of research discussed supply chain mapping,but primarily with reference to business strategies and corporate decision-making(e.g.,where to build the next factory,which distributor to partner with).54 As a result,these supply chain mapping efforts are less relevant for policymakers.Economists

144、and political scientists study supply chains within the context of specific technologies and global value chains(GVCs)more generally.This research crosses disciplines to look at foreign direct investment(FDI),industrialization,international trade data,technology,and the behavior of multinational cor

145、porations.Research into Center for Security and Emerging Technology|20 GVCs frequently focuses on understanding international trade flows and multinational corporation activity:how and why international commerce is organized the way it is,how tax regimes and tariffs affect manufacturing and trade,an

146、d the role of regulations and industrial policy in technology development.55 Research into GVCs involves mapping supply chains by industry,generally through the use of international trade data and information on stocks and flows of FDI.56 These efforts are often relevant for policymakers interested

147、in understanding a particular technology or how(and why)one countrys competitiveness compares to another.*Industry Methods Historically,the primary focus of Supply Chain Risk Management(SCRM)has revolved around maintaining cost,schedule,and performance.57 Private-sector SCRM efforts prioritize deliv

148、ery of products and services on time,at the quoted cost,and to specifications(“to spec”).The use of the information presented in Table 3 by the private sector is designed to mitigate the risk that supply of the products and services needed for business operations is interrupted.Private-sector supply

149、 chain mapping reflects an overriding focus on risk mitigation.In general,industry supply chain mapping is focused on managing company-internal products and services to ensure availability and quality.This involves creating process maps so a firm can visually represent how a product or service is se

150、quentially delivered and by whom.As a result,the methods employed by industry achieve a remarkable level of granularity in their focus on identifying current suppliers,potential suppliers,and a wide variety of risks that may stem from these suppliers.Single-and sole-source suppliers are examples of

151、market concentration risks,in which a small number of suppliers control the vast majority of supply of a product.Supply chain risks take many other forms,including geographic concentration,geopolitical,price and market volatility,environmental health and safety(EHS),intellectual property(IP),standar

152、ds,substitution,integrity(counterfeits),and cybersecurity.Different technologies face different supply chain risks:information communications technology supply chains focus on cybersecurity risk.Raw materials supply chains focus much less on cybersecurity risk and far more on EHS risks associated wi

153、th mining.Industry utilizes supply chain mapping information to characterize and mitigate these risks.*See,for example,the public comments by Dr.Mark Dallas and Dr.Kristin Vekasi from this recent hearing on U.S.-China Competition in Global Supply Chains:Mark Dallas and Kristin Vekasi,“U.S.-China Com

154、petition in Global Supply Chains,”U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission,June,2022,https:/www.uscc.gov/hearings/us-china-competition-global-supply-chains.Center for Security and Emerging Technology|21 While risks that are assessed by industry may not be shared by policymakers,the detaile

155、d supply chain information that industry relies on can be useful for informing policymakers risk analysis.Government Methods*The U.S.government(USG)has undertaken a wide variety of initiatives to review and manage critical technology supply chains.The most recent and visible example of USG efforts t

156、o review supply chain security are the February 2022 reports prepared by the Departments of Agriculture,Commerce,Defense,Energy,Health and Human Services,and Homeland Security in response to Executive Order 14017 on Americas Supply Chains.58 These reports,which included both 100-day and 1-year deliv

157、erables,reviewed a wide variety of critical technology supply chains in industries important to U.S.economic and national security.59 This work followed several initiatives undertaken in the preceding five years.These efforts include Executive Order 13817 and Executive Order 13953,both of which focu

158、sed on increasing critical mineral supply chain security.60 Relatedly,Executive Order 13806 tasked the Department of Defense with analysis of its defense industrial base and supply chain resilience.61 The Department of Commerces Bureau of Industry and Security also maintains an industrial base asses

159、sments division that has published several reports on specific critical technologies and their supply chains in the past five years.62 Moreover,the Government Accountability Office(GAO)regularly reviews government efforts to assess and manage supply chain risks,especially as they relate to critical

160、technology.Recent GAO reports in 2020 and 2021 focused on government information technology supply chain risks and DOD efforts to protect critical technologies,respectively.63 Several agencies maintain ongoing efforts to review supply chain vulnerabilities across sectors.The U.S.Geological Survey re

161、leases an annual“List of Critical Minerals”deemed important to“national security,the economy,renewable energy development and infrastructure.”64 The National Institute of Standards and Technology(NIST)at the Department of Commerce has produced SCRM guidelines for cybersecurity management designed to

162、 increase public and private-sector supply chain resilience.65 NIST is also currently studying the feasibility,advisability,and costs of establishing a national supply chain database.66 The Department of Homeland Securitys Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency(CISA)has had a standing Info

163、rmation and Communications Technology(ICT)Supply Chain Management Task *This section is derived from:John VerWey,“U.S.-China Competition in Global Supply Chains,”U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission,June 2022,https:/www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2022-06/John_VerWey_Testimony.pdf.Cen

164、ter for Security and Emerging Technology|22 Force since December 2018.67 The Department of Commerce is also leading the U.S.governments engagement with the European Union under the aegis of the U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council to review critical technology supply chains and identify areas of col

165、laboration to increase resilience.68 Finally,the DOD produces an annual Industrial Capabilities report that presents the Departments priority industrial base risks and vulnerabilities within its supply chains.69 Figure 1.U.S.Government-Developed Supply Chain Map for Large Power Transformers and High

166、 Voltage Direct Current Systems70 Source:U.S.Department of Energy.71 The aforementioned government efforts map critical technology supply chains in an ad hoc manner,with various levels of granularity and fidelity(See Figure 1 for an example).These mapping efforts focus on determining specific supply

167、 chain segments and,in some cases,specific vendors and their market shares in these segments.Some of these mapping efforts are limited by a lack of access to data(which may be paywalled or simply not exist)or an inability to define the supply chain for a particular Center for Security and Emerging T

168、echnology|23 technology,which may be too nascent or emerging to have well-defined supply chain segments.In general,the supply chain vulnerabilities these reports identify are not systematically monitored or updated as supply chains change,but rather present a“snapshot in time”view.Emerging Technolog

169、y Supply Chains Academic,industry,and government approaches to identifying emerging technologies and mapping supply chains all present partial solutions and trade-offs.Synthesizing these respective strengths helps mitigate the trade-offs of each approach:academia has developed methods for aggregatin

170、g and analyzing vast networks of information on science and technology.Industry has developed methods for evaluating this information to make it actionable.And governments maintain strategic visibility across academic disciplines,industries,and countries in the context of ongoing technology competit

171、ion.In addition,governments retain substantial funding and physical infrastructure to invest in particular technologies,to accelerate technology emergence,and to mitigate supply chain risks.This section proposes a multistep technology-agnostic process policymakers could use when identifying and mapp

172、ing emerging technology supply chains.It proposes that the CSET Map of Science,a tool maintained by its Emerging Technology Observatory(ETO),*can be used to identify particular emerging technologies exhibiting signals of“emergence”based on publication,citation,and patent activity as well as helping

173、policymakers define specific sub-technologies of interest and the names of leading actors and institutions.It also presents the ETOs Advanced Semiconductor Supply Chain Explorer.While focused on one particular industry,the methodology behind this supply chain map is technology agnostic and could be

174、used by policymakers interested in mapping other emerging technologies.In support of this argument,this section also presents a list of key information necessary to build a comprehensive map of a particular emerging technology supply chain.Identifying Emerging Technologies Worth Mapping The ETO Map

175、of Science is a map of literature constructed by grouping research publications into research clusters(RCs)based on citation linkages.RCs are groups of *The Emerging Technology Observatory is CSETs public platform for emerging technology data services.The following description is derived from:Emergi

176、ng Technology Observatory,“Documentation:Map of Science,”https:/eto.tech/tool-docs/mos/.Center for Security and Emerging Technology|24 articles that cite each other frequently,typically because they share common methodologies.This merged academic corpus of 270 million articles can be used for a rang

177、e of analytic tasks.72 The visualizations in the map are drawn from a set of merged scholarly literature constructed from Microsoft Academic Graph,*Clarivate Web of Science,the Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure,Dimensions Digital Science,arXiv,and Papers with Code.CSET clustered the merged d

178、ataset into approximately 100,000 research clusters and mapped the clusters based on shared citations(Figure 2).The tool aims to answer questions such as:Which areas are growing fastest?Which types of research are having the biggest impact?What are researchers in a particular country most interested

179、 in?Figure 2.ETOs Map of Science with Color-Coded Research Clusters Source:Emerging Technology Observatory,Map of Science.73 The ETO has published a variety of articles showing how the Map of Science can be used to identify emerging technologies with a level of granularity that is responsive to poli

180、cymaker needs.These articles have looked at what topics are of particular interest in AI,quantum,computing hardware,and pharmacology,among others.74 For *Note:the Microsoft Academic Graph project was discontinued at the end of 2021.The data covers all years of each of these sources with the exceptio

181、n of papers published before 2000 in Clarivate Web of Science and papers published before 2005 in the Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure.Center for Security and Emerging Technology|25 policymakers interested in using the ETOs Map of Science to identify potential emerging technologies,these ar

182、ticles provide a replicable methodology:Select subject(s)of interest Filter the results for specific characteristics:o“Emerging”RCs(an average article age of five years or newer)o“Growing”RCs(a large number 100 in preceding five years of recent articles)o“Impactful”RCs(research that gets cited frequ

183、ently a citation rate that exceeds the median across all Map of Science clusters)Switch to the maps list view and sort by growth rating Review specific research clusters The results of these filters will show policymakers research areas that,in some cases,represent particular technologies that displ

184、ay characteristics of emergence:novelty,growth,and impact.In addition,the results will provide a list of high-impact articles along with author affiliation(university,firm,or government),patents that cite to these articles,and which entities“lead”in a particular RC.The names of specific researchers,

185、research institutions,and firms is helpful information for policymakers interested in taking the next step and mapping a particular emerging technologys supply chain.Mapping Emerging Technology Supply Chains Mapping an emerging technologys supply chain is a three-step process:(1)establish a basic un

186、derstanding of the ecosystem(what currently exists,how it is used,what knowledge gaps remain);(2)analyze the particular subsegment(s)of interest;and(3)build a map to represent the findings.Each of these steps requires successively more detailed information.Because nearly all emerging technology deve

187、lopment is occurring in universities and private firms,it is a matter of collecting names,mapping relationships,quantifying progress,and assessing trends.Center for Security and Emerging Technology|26 Basic Industry Mapping Establishing a basic understanding of an emerging technology supply chain be

188、gins with identifying key concepts and actors.The ETOs Map of Science can help policymakers establish a basic understanding and answer questions such as:*What are the unique terms associated with the technology?o Micro:Create a glossary of technology-specific terms.o Macro:How do these terms relate

189、to the broader field of science and technology?Which individuals and firms are“expert”in this field?o What are their affiliations(university,private sector,government)?o What metrics can be used to represent this“expertise”?What is the broader community of interest?o Where is the leading research pu

190、blished,presented,and standardized(journals,conferences)?o What open-source data exists and where can it be found(blogs,forums)?o What proprietary resources exist(industry publications)?How does this technology relate to other technologies?o Is this technology an outgrowth of a previously existing f

191、ield of research or a completely new field?o Are there past incarnations of this industry that can be used to benchmark the pace of progress?Detailed Market Analysis Once a basic understanding of an emerging technology ecosystem has been established,a more detailed analysis of the subsegments follow

192、s.This detailed industry assessment will(ideally)also leverage historic data to establish trends and the rate of progress.Who are the current leading actors?o Where are these actors physically located?o Is this lead observable via publication and citation intensity,patent filings,funding rounds,gran

193、ts,or other quantifiable metrics?If so,capture them.*This section is loosely derived from:Steve Blank,“Mapping the Unknown The Ten Steps to Map Any Industry,”Steve Blank,September 20,2022,https:/ for Security and Emerging Technology|27 o How long have they been leading?How does the technology“stack”

194、?o Who builds on top of whom?o What are the enabling tools and technologies on which this emerging technology relies?How substitutable are these tools?Competitiveness o Who are the tiers of suppliers?o Who is the ultimate customer for this technology(were it to“emerge”)?o What barriers to entry exis

195、t,is there potential for new entrants,and,if so,under what circumstances?o What is the current level of funding by actor by country(public R&D,private firm capital expenditures)?o How does the domestic workforce compare internationally,does workforce enable or constrain development in this industry?

196、Constructing a Technology Supply Chain Map Once a detailed understanding of the industry has been established,it is possible to construct a map that represents both the flow of a particular technology product/service and overall competitiveness.This map will represent the directional flow of actors

197、involved in a particular technologys development scaled by prominence and with reference to geographic distribution and competitiveness.The ETOs recently introduced Supply Chain Explorer for Advanced Semiconductors provides a model of this mapping in practice.75 Previous CSET research has described

198、the complexity of the semiconductor supply chain in detail.76 The Supply Chain Explorer was developed for policymakers interested in assessing the utility of policies to protect(which semiconductor technologies to restrict sales of)and promote(which nascent semiconductor technologies hold future pro

199、mise worth investing in).The information on which the supply chain explorer is based aligns with the questions posed in the preceding section.This includes information on unique terms,firm-level leadership,and market share by subsegment,geographic headquarters location,the technology flow from desig

200、n to fabrication,key choke points,and substitutability(or lack thereof).Specifically,the supply chain explorer can be used to:77 Learn about how advanced logic chips are produced and the tools,materials,and processes that are involved.Center for Security and Emerging Technology|28 Visually explore t

201、he chip supply chain as a series of stages and processes,each involving different tools,materials,and providers.Assess countries and companies role in the supply chain using the datasets extensive provider information.Identify“choke points,”market concentration,dependency relationships,and other str

202、uctural features of the supply chain.It is also possible for users to highlight specific elements:78 The Supplier Countries filter highlights stages and inputs according to the cumulative market share of the selected country or countries.(A countrys market share is equal to the total market share of

203、 companies headquartered in that country.)The Supplier Companies filter is a binary filter that highlights stages and elements supplied(to any extent)by the selected company,or(if more than one company is selected)by any one of the selected companies.The Market Concentration filter highlights stages

204、 and inputs according to how many countries supply them.There are three different shades of highlighting.For example,the darkest shade is applied if suppliers in a single country control more than 75 percent of the total market.All of this information comes with important caveats.Policymakers intere

205、sted in identifying emerging technologies and mapping their supply chains will need to carefully supplement the data provided in the ETOs Map of Science and Supply Chain Explorer with additional information derived from sources described in earlier sections of this paper.For example,information on t

206、rends in talent flows and investment funding can supplement these tools,assisting policymakers efforts to identify emerging technologies and map key entities involved in associated supply chains.Conclusion Policymakers are asking questions of techno-economic competitiveness that draw on sources of i

207、nformation and best practices used by academia,industry,and government to identify emerging technologies and analyze supply chains.There are a variety of proposals under consideration to establish new functions within the U.S.government to protect and promote emerging technology innovation as well a

208、s supply chain resilience.These efforts should be closely coordinated.The ETOs Map of Science and Supply Chain Explorer offer a model policymakers can use for mapping emerging technology supply chains.The ETOs Map of Science can help policymakers identify Center for Security and Emerging Technology|

209、29 technologies that exhibit signs of emergence.The supply chain explorer,though currently focused on advanced semiconductors,employs a methodology that is technology agnostic.Combined,these tools and methodology can assist policymakers interested in identifying and mapping emerging technology suppl

210、y chains.Center for Security and Emerging Technology|30 Author John VerWey is a non-resident research fellow at CSET and an East Asia national security advisor at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.Acknowledgments For helpful feedback and suggestions,the author would like to thank Igor Mikolic-To

211、rreira,Richard Danzig,Kevin OToole,Sabra Simmonds,Taylore Roth,Zachary Arnold,Catherine Aiken,and Melissa Flagg.He would also like to thank Matt Mahoney,Jahnavi Mukul,Chloe Moffett,Tessa Baker,Shelton Fitch,and Owen Daniels for editorial support.2023 by the Center for Security and Emerging Technolog

212、y.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial 4.0 International License.To view a copy of this license,visit https:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.Document Identifier:doi:10.51593/20230004 Center for Security and Emerging Technology|31 Appendix 1.Recent U.S.Gov

213、ernment Requests for Comment/Information(RFCs,RFIs)Related to Supply Chains and Strategies to Protect and Promote Emerging Technologies79 Title Agency Date Supply Chain RFCs and RFIs Notice of Request for Comments on Executive Order“Americas Supply Chains”Department of Defense 2021 Notice of Request

214、 for Public Comments on Risks in the Information Communications Technology Supply Chain Department of Commerce/Department of Homeland Security 2021 Notice of Request for Information(RFI)on Energy Sector Supply Chain Review Department of Energy 2021 Notice of Request for Information(RFI)on Risks in t

215、he High-Capacity Batteries,Including Electric Vehicle Batteries Supply Chain Department of Energy 2021 Supply Chains for the Production of Agricultural Commodities and Food Products Department of Agriculture 2021 Americas Supply Chains and the Transportation Industrial Base Department of Transportat

216、ion 2021 Risks in the Semiconductor Manufacturing and Advanced Packaging Supply Chain Department of Commerce 2021 Request for Public Comments on Supply Chain Issues To Support the U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council Secure Supply Chains Working Group Department of Commerce 2022 Access to Fertilizer

217、:Competition and Supply Chain Concerns Department of Agriculture 2022 Joint FERC-DOE Supply Chain Risk Management,Technical Conference;Supplemental Notice of Technical Conference Department of Energy/FERC 2022 Center for Security and Emerging Technology|32 Emerging Technology Protect and Promote RFC

218、s and RFIs Review of Controls for Certain Emerging Technologies Department of Commerce 2018 Identification and Review of Controls for Certain Foundational Technologies Department of Commerce 2020 The National Strategy to Secure 5G Implementation Plan Department of Commerce 2020 Request for Comments

219、Concerning the Imposition of Export Controls on Certain Brain-Computer Interface(BCI)Emerging Technology Department of Commerce 2021 Request for Comments Concerning the Imposition of Section 1758 Technology Export Controls on Instruments for the Automated Chemical Synthesis of Peptides Department of

220、 Commerce 2022 Request for Information;National Biotechnology and Biomanufacturing Initiative White House Office of Science and Technology Policy 2022 Accelerating Innovations in Emerging Technologies Department of Energy 2022 Request for Comments on Artificial Intelligence Export Competitiveness De

221、partment of Commerce 2022 Public Wireless Supply Chain Innovation Fund Implementation Department of Commerce 2022 Controls on Certain Marine Toxins Department of Commerce 2022 Center for Security and Emerging Technology|33 Appendix 2.Emerging Technology Attributes Table 5.Emerging Technology Attribu

222、tes Characteristic Concept Example Radical novelty Innovation that is clearly differentiated from past technologies Wireless communication technologies Fast growth An increase in the number of actors,funding,and/or outputs Quantum computing Coherence Convergence of previously separated research stre

223、ams CRISPR-based gene editing Prominent impact Potential to create an entirely new industry,or fundamentally change an existing one Googles PageRank algorithm Uncertainty or ambiguity A variety of potential applications may appear,but high-confidence future predictions are difficult Biofuels Source:

224、Daniele Rotolo,Diana Hicks,and Ben R.Martin,“What Is an Emerging Technology?”Radical novelty refers to a technologys newness or distinctiveness:how an innovation is clearly differentiated from past technologies.However,this novelty may also come in the form of employing an existing technology for an

225、 entirely new purpose.One example of this is wireless communication technology,which began as a lab-based tool for measuring electromagnetic waves and was then used to enable communication between remote locations(e.g.,lighthouses),and evolved to transmit audio and data via wireless fidelity(Wi-Fi)s

226、tandards.80 Fast growth is observable through the number of actors involved(e.g.,scientists,universities,firms,public users),public and private funding,knowledge outputs(publications,patents),and pilot projects.Measuring growth requires caveats,and in general it is preferable that a particular techn

227、ologys growth be measured relative to others.For example,comparing publication rates and funding levels devoted to quantum computing in the 1990s versus the 2010s suggests a level of growth that may indicate quantum technologies are emerging.Coherence refers to“convergence of previously separated re

228、search streams”and the establishment of a distinct community of practice engaged in the technologys development separate from“parent”technologies.81 For example,the characterization Center for Security and Emerging Technology|34 of CRISPR-Cas systems beginning in the late 1980s and into the early 19

229、90s resulted in a new subfield of biotechnology focused on gene editing technologies and a new academic discipline within biology.82 Prominent impact refers to a technologies ability to create an entirely new industry or transform an existing one,especially one with large economic implications.For e

230、xample,Googles PageRank algorithm,which employed a novel method of ranking web-based search results,reorganized how people and organizations did business on the internet.83 Finally,uncertainty or ambiguity refers to a given technologys inherently unknowable application(s)and impact(s).One criterion

231、that distinguishes an emerging technology from an“emerged”technology is this ambiguity.For example,the development of biofuels for use in commercial aircraft jet engines may find success in the aviation industry,it may find success in another entirely separate fuel-consuming industry,or it may fail

232、to realize its technical promise entirely.This uncertain outcome is part of what makes biofuels emerging as opposed to jet engines,where the underlying technology has not changed radically in decades and has“emerged.”Center for Security and Emerging Technology|35 Endnotes 1 The White House,National

233、Strategy for Critical and Emerging Technologies,October 2020,https:/trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/National-Strategy-for-CET.pdf;The White House,Technologies for American Innovation and National Security,February 7,2022,https:/www.whitehouse.gov/ostp/news-updates/2022/02/07/

234、technologies-for-american-innovation-and-national-security/.2 Maxwell Bernstein,“Its Colossal:Creating the Worlds Largest Dilution Refrigerator,”Fermilab,December 7,2022,https:/news.fnal.gov/2022/12/its-colossal-creating-the-worlds-largest-dilution-refrigerator/;“Homepage,”Maybell Quantum,https:/ 2-

235、2-2 and Natsec Tech by SCSP,“SCSP Newsletter Edition 4 Addendum,”SCSP Substack,May 19,2022,https:/ 2-2-2 and Natsec Tech by SCSP,“Whats in a Tech List?”SCSP Substack,May 19,2022,https:/ Richard Danzig,“Driving in the Dark:Ten Propositions about Prediction and National Security,”(Center for New Ameri

236、can Security,October 26,2011),https:/as.org/publications/reports/driving-in-the-dark-ten-propositions-about-prediction-and-national-security%C2%A0.6 Hermann Simon,Hidden Champions of the Twenty-First Century:The Success Strategies of Unknown World Market Leaders(New York:Springer,2009),https:/ the p

237、ossibilities of Quantum,”Quantum AI Google,Accessed May 24,2023,https:/quantumai.google/;Sara Fischer,“Slow Fade for Google and Metas Ad Dominance,”Axios,December 20,2022,https:/ United States House Code,“Chapter 58:Export Control Reform,”Accessed May 24,2023,https:/uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?path=

238、/prelimtitle50/chapter58&edition=prelim;Export Control Law of the Peoples Republic of China,“Order of the President of the Peoples Republic of China,”October 17,2020,http:/ Federal Register,Review of Controls for Certain Emerging Technologies,(Washington,D.C.:Industry and Security Bureau,November 19

239、,2018),https:/www.federalregister.gov/documents/2018/11/19/2018-25221/review-of-controls-for-certain-emerging-technologies.10 Federal Register,Identification and Review of Controls for Certain Foundational Technologies,(Washington,D.C.:Industry and Security Bureau,August 27,2020),https:/www.federalr

240、egister.gov/documents/2020/08/27/2020-18910/identification-and-review-of-controls-for-certain-foundational-technologies.Center for Security and Emerging Technology|36 11 United States House Code,“Section 1758 of Chapter 58:Export Control Reform,”Accessed May 24,2023,https:/uscode.house.gov/view.xhtm

241、l?path=/prelimtitle50/chapter58&edition=prelim.12 Federal Register,Commerce Control List:Controls on Certain Marine Toxins,(Washington,D.C.:Industry and Security Bureau,May 23,2022),https:/www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/05/23/2022-10907/commerce-control-list-controls-on-certain-marine-toxins

242、;Bureau of Industry and Security,Update Conference on Export Controls and Policy,(Washington,D.C.:Department of Commerce,June 29,2022),https:/www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/component/docman/?task=doc_download&gid=3073.13 Congressional Research Service,“Frequently Asked Questions:CHIPS Act of 2022 Provisi

243、ons and Implementation”(Washington,D.C.:Congressional Research Service,April 25,2023),https:/crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47523;Julie Zhu,“Exclusive:China readying$143 billion package for its chip firms in face of U.S.curbs,”Reuters,December 13,2022,https:/ Archives:Philosophy of Science,”

244、Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy,https:/iep.utm.edu/category/s-l-m/science/.15 Patrick Collison and Tyler Cowen,“We Need a New Science of Progress,”The Atlantic,July 30,2019,https:/ Ian Miles,“The Development of Technology Foresight:A Review,”Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77,Issue 9

245、(November 2010):14481456,https:/ Amos Golan,Foundations of Info-Metrics:Modeling,Inference,and Imperfect Information(Oxford:Oxford University Press,2017),https:/ John Mingers and Loet Leydesdorff,“A Review of Theory and Practice in Scientometrics,”European Journal of Operational Research 246,Issue 1

246、,(October 2015):119,https:/ R.N.Broadus,“Toward a Definition of Bibliometrics,”Scientometrics 12,(November 1987):373379,https:/ Committee on Network Science for Future Army Applications,Board on Army Science and Technology,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,National Research Council of th

247、e National Academies,“Network Science”(Washington,D.C.:The National Academies Press,2005),https:/nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/11516/network-science.21 Daniele Rotolo,Diana Hicks,and Ben R.Martin,“What Is an Emerging Technology?”arXiv:1503.00673v4(2015),https:/arxiv.org/abs/1503.00673.Center for

248、 Security and Emerging Technology|37 22 Karen White,“Publications Output:U.S.Trends and International Comparisons,”Science&Engineering Indicators,October 28,2021,https:/ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsb20214/publication-output-by-country-region-or-economy-and-scientific-field.23 U.S.Patent and Trademark Office

249、,Patent Technology Monitoring Team(PTMT),“U.S.Patent Statistics Chart Calendar Years 1963-2020,”https:/www.uspto.gov/web/offices/ac/ido/oeip/taf/us_stat.htm.24 H.D.White and K.W.McCain,“Visualization of Literatures,”Annual Review of Information Science and Technology(ARIST),1997.25 Michael E.Bales,D

250、rew N.Wright,Peter R.,and Terrie R.Wheeler,“Bibliometric Visualization and Analysis Software:State of the Art,Workflows,and Best Practices,”(2020),https:/ecommons.cornell.edu/handle/1813/69597.26 Bales et al.,“Bibliometric Visualization and Analysis Software.”27 Deutsche Bank,“Horizon Scanning with

251、Deutsche Bank,”Apple Podcasts,https:/ 07,(Fall 2021),https:/cdn2.assets-servd.host/the-engine/production/Reports-and-Publications/TT07_Transformation.pdf.29 Josh Lerner and Ramana Nanda,“Venture Capitals Role in Financing Innovation:What We Know and How Much We Still Need to Learn,”Journal of Econom

252、ic Perspectives 34,no.3,(Summer 2020):237261,https:/www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.34.3.237.30 Special Competitive Studies Project,“Platforms Panel Interim Panel Report:Harnessing the New Geometry of Innovation”(Special Competitive Studies Project,November 2022),25,https:/www.scsp.ai/2022/11

253、/scsps-platform-panel-releases-interim-panel-report/.31 National Academies,“Leveraging the Future Research and Development Ecosystem for the Intelligence Community,”Accessed May 24,2023,https:/www.nationalacademies.org/our-work/leveraging-the-future-research-and-development-ecosystem-for-the-intelli

254、gence-community.32 Amy Webb,“Why the government needs a Department of the Future,”Politico,December 13,2016,https:/ European Commission,Joint Research Centre,Weak signals in science and technologies in 2021 Technologies at a very early stage of development that could impact the future,(Brussels:Publ

255、ications Office of the European Union,2022),https:/op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/f5a243d0-24eb-11ed-8fa0-01aa75ed71a1.34 European Commission,Joint Research Centre,Weak signals in science and technologies 2019 report:technologies at a very early stage of development that could impa

256、ct the future,(Brussels:Publications Office of the European Union,2019),https:/op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/e95696bd-157e-11ea-8c1f-01aa75ed71a1/language-en/format-PDF/source-search.Center for Security and Emerging Technology|38 35 European Commission,Text Mining and Analysis Com

257、petence Centre,(Brussels:European Union,2021),https:/knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/text-mining/information_systems_en.36 European Commission,Supply chain of renewable energy technologies in Europe:An analysis for wind,geothermal and ocean energy,(Brussels:European Union,2017),https:/publications.jrc

258、.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC108106;Elisa Carelli,“Presentation from the JRC of its tool on supply chain raw materials,discussion about the disruption on plastics supply chain,”European Cluster Collaboration Platform,May 29,2020,https:/clustercollaboration.eu/forum-covid/european-alliance-agai

259、nst-coronavirus-daily-meetings/presentation-jrc-its-tool-supply-chain-raw-materials-discussion-about-disruption.37 Science and Technology,Horizon Scanning,(Washington,D.C.:Department of Homeland Security,2022),https:/www.dhs.gov/science-and-technology/horizon-scanning.38 Office of the Undersecretary

260、 of Defense for Research and Engineering,“Critical Technology Areas,”https:/www.cto.mil/usdre-strat-vision-critical-tech-areas/.39 U.S.Government Accountability Office,“Science,Technology Assessment,and Analytics at GAO,”September 7,2022,https:/www.gao.gov/products/gao-22-900426.40 Michael T.Gibbons

261、,“Federally Funded R&D Centers Report 6%Increase in R&D Spending in FY 2021,”National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics,July 28,2022,https:/ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsf22334.41 Congressional Research Service,“Federally Funded Research and Development Centers(FFRDCs):Background and Issues for C

262、ongress,”(Washington,D.C.:Congressional Research Service,April 3,2020),https:/crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44629/6.42 National Science Foundation,“About NSF,”https:/www.nsf.gov/about/how.jsp.43 Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity,Foresight and Understanding from Scientific Exp

263、osition,(Washington,D.C.:Office of the Director of National Intelligence),https:/www.iarpa.gov/research-programs/fuse.44 Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity,Forest Forecasting Science&Technology,(Washington,D.C.:Office of the Director of National Intelligence),https:/www.iarpa.gov/resea

264、rch-programs/forest.45 Special Competitive Studies Project,“Platforms Panel Interim Panel Report:Harnessing the New Geometry of Innovation,”27.46“Mid-Decade Challenges to National Competitiveness”(Special Competitive Studies Project,September,2022),163,https:/www.scsp.ai/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/S

265、CSP-Mid-Decade-Challenges-to-National-Competitiveness.pdf;Special Competitive Studies Project,“Platforms Panel Interim Panel Report:Harnessing the New Geometry of Innovation,”55.Center for Security and Emerging Technology|39 47 This turn of phrase is borrowed from Dr.Mark P.Dallas.Mark P.Dallas,“U.S

266、.-China Competition in Global Supply Chains,”U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission,June 9,2022,5,https:/www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2022-06/Mark_Dallas_Testimony.pdf.48 Regulations.gov,Comment on FR Doc#2018-25221,(Washington,D.C.:Bureau of Industry and Security,February 21,2019),h

267、ttps:/www.regulations.gov/comment/BIS-2018-0024-0160.49 Margaret Mann,Vicky Putsche and Benjamin Shrager,Grid Energy Storage Supply Chain Deep Dive Assessment,(Washington,D.C.:Department of Energy,February 24,2022),https:/www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2022-02/Energy%20Storage%20Supply%20Chain%2

268、0Report%20-%20final.pdf.50“Containers,”Lloyds List,https:/ Benjamin Thompson and Noah Baker,“Google AI beats humans at designing computer chips,”Nature Podcast,June 9,2021,https:/ Investor.gov,Form 10-K,(Washington,D.C.:U.S.Securities and Exchange Commission),https:/www.investor.gov/introduction-inv

269、esting/investing-basics/glossary/form-10-k.53 K.Katsaliaki,P.Galetsi,and S.Kumar,Supply chain disruptions and resilience:a major review and future research agenda,(Washington,D.C.:National Center for Biotechnology Information,2021),https:/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7792559/.54 John T.Gardn

270、er and Martha C.Cooper,“Strategic Supply Chain Mapping Approaches,”Journal of Business Logistics 24,no.2,(2003):3764,https:/ Pol Antrs and Davin Chor,“Global Value Chains,”National Bureau of Economic Research,March,2021,https:/www.nber.org/papers/w28549.56 John T.Gardner and Martha C.Cooper,“Strateg

271、ic Supply Chain Mapping Approaches,”Journal of Business Logistics 24,no.2,(2003):3764,https:/ Chris Nissen,John Gronager,Robert Metzger,and Harvey Rishikof,“Deliver Uncompromised A Strategy for Supply Chain Security and Resilience in Response to the Changing Character of War,”(Mitre,August,2018),htt

272、ps:/www.dni.gov/files/NCSC/documents/supplychain/20190327-Deliver-uncompromised.pdf.58 Exec.Order No.14017,86 FR 11849(2021),https:/www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/02/24/executive-order-on-americas-supply-chains/.59 The White House,“The Biden-Harris Plan to Revitalize Amer

273、ican Manufacturing and Secure Critical Supply Chains in 2022,”February 24,2022,https:/www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-Center for Security and Emerging Technology|40 releases/2022/02/24/the-biden-harris-plan-to-revitalize-american-manufacturing-and-secure-critical-supply-chains-in-2022/.6

274、0 Federal Register,A Federal Strategy To Ensure Secure and Reliable Supplies of Critical Minerals,(Washington,D.C.:Executive Office of the President,December 26,2017),https:/www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/12/26/2017-27899/a-federal-strategy-to-ensure-secure-and-reliable-supplies-of-critical-

275、minerals;Federal Register,Addressing the Threat to the Domestic Supply Chain From Reliance on Critical Minerals From Foreign Adversaries and Supporting the Domestic Mining and Processing Industries,(Washington,D.C.:Executive Office of the President,October 5,2020),https:/www.federalregister.gov/docu

276、ments/2020/10/05/2020-22064/addressing-the-threat-to-the-domestic-supply-chain-from-reliance-on-critical-minerals-from-foreign.61 Federal Register,Assessing and Strengthening the Manufacturing and Defense Industrial Base and Supply Chain Resiliency of the United States,(Washington,D.C.:Executive Off

277、ice of the President,July 26,2017),https:/www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/07/26/2017-15860/assessing-and-strengthening-the-manufacturing-and-defense-industrial-base-and-supply-chain.62 Bureau of Industry and Security,Industrial Base Assessments,(Washington,D.C.:Department of Commerce),https:/

278、www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/other-areas/office-of-technology-evaluation-ote/industrial-base-assessments.63 U.S.Government Accountability Office,“Information Technology:Federal Agencies Need to Take Urgent Action to Manage Supply Chain Risks,”December 15,2020,https:/www.gao.gov/products/gao-21-171;U.S.

279、Government Accountability Office,“DOD Critical Technologies Plans for Communicating,Assessing,and Overseeing Protection Efforts Should Be Completed,”January,2021,https:/www.gao.gov/assets/gao-21-158.pdf.64 Communications and Publishing,U.S.Geological Survey Releases 2022 List of Critical Minerals,(W

280、ashington,D.C.:U.S.Geological Survey,February 22,2022),https:/www.usgs.gov/news/national-news-release/us-geological-survey-releases-2022-list-critical-minerals.65“NIST Updates Cybersecurity Guidance for Supply Chain Risk Management,”National Institute of Standards and Technology,May 5,2022,https:/ww

281、w.nist.gov/news-events/news/2022/05/nist-updates-cybersecurity-guidance-supply-chain-risk-management.66“NIST Provisions in the National Defense Authorization Act of 2021,”National Institute of Standards and Technology,https:/www.nist.gov/document/chart.67“ICT Supply Chain Risk Management Task Force,

282、”Cybersecurity&Infrastructure Security Agency,https:/www.cisa.gov/ict-scrm-task-force.68 Office of Public Affairs,U.S.-EU Joint Statement of the Trade and Technology Council,(Washington,D.C.:Department of Commerce,May 16,2022),https:/merce.gov/news/press-releases/2022/05/us-eu-joint-statement-trade-

283、and-technology-council.Center for Security and Emerging Technology|41 69 Office of Public Affairs,DOD Releases Industrial Capabilities Report,(Washington,D.C.:Department of Defense,January 14,2021),https:/www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2472854/dod-releases-industrial-capabilities-repo

284、rt/.70 Ruby Nguyen,Mike Severson,Bo Zhang,Bjorn Vaagensmith,Md Mamunur Rahman,Ange-Lionel Toba,Paige Price,Ryan Davis,and Sophie Williams,Electric Grid Supply Chain Review:Large Power Transformers and High Voltage Direct Current Systems,(Washington,D.C.:Department of Energy,February 24,2022),https:/

285、www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2022-02/Electric%20Grid%20Supply%20Chain%20Report%20-%20Final.pdf.71 Nguyen et al.,Electric Grid Supply Chain Review.72 Refer to the Data Snapshot series for more information:Center for Emerging Technology and Security,“Data Snapshot,”https:/cset.georgetown.edu/pub

286、lications/?fwp_content_type=data-snapshot#publications;https:/eto.tech/dataset-docs/mac/;NOTE:“Data sourced from Dimensions,an inter-linked research information system provided by Digital Science(http:/www.dimensions.ai)”and“All China National Knowledge Infrastructure content is furnished for use in

287、 the United States by East View Information Services,Minneapolis,MN,USA.”73 Emerging Technology Observatory,Map of Science,https:/sciencemap.eto.tech/?mode=map.74 Emerging Technology Observatory,“Whats hot in materials science?Discovering emerging topics with ETOs Map of Science,”November 29,2022,ht

288、tps:/eto.tech/blog/whats-hot-in-materials-science-map-of-science/;Emerging Technology Observatory,“Whats hot in quantum?Discovering emerging topics with ETOs Map of Science,”December 1,2022,https:/eto.tech/blog/whats-hot-in-quantum-map-of-science/;Emerging Technology Observatory,“Whats hot in hardwa

289、re?Discovering emerging topics with ETOs Map of Science,”December 7,2022,https:/eto.tech/blog/whats-hot-in-computing-hardware-map-of-science/;Emerging Technology Observatory,“Whats hot in Chinese AI Research?Discovering emerging topics with ETOs Map of Science,”December 12,2022,https:/eto.tech/blog/

290、whats-hot-in-chinese-ai-map-of-science/;Emerging Technology Observatory,“Whats hot in Pharmacology?Discovering emerging topics with ETOs Map of Science,”December 16,2022,https:/eto.tech/blog/whats-hot-in-pharmacology-map-of-science/.75 Emerging Technology Observatory,“Supply Chain Explorer,”October

291、16,2022,https:/chipexplorer.eto.tech/;Emerging Technology Observatory,“Documentation:Supply Chain Explorer:Advanced Chips,”https:/eto.tech/tool-docs/chipexplorer/.76 Saif M.Khan,“Securing Semiconductor Supply Chains,”Center for Security and Emerging Technology,January 2021,https:/cset.georgetown.edu

292、/publication/securing-semiconductor-supply-chains/.77 Emerging Technology Observatory,“A guide for the perplexed:introducing the Supply Chain Explorer,”October 3,2022,https:/eto.tech/blog/introducing-supply-chain-explorer-advanced-chips/.78 Emerging Technology Observatory,“Documentation:Supply Chain

293、 Explorer:Advanced Chips,”https:/eto.tech/tool-docs/chipexplorer/.79 Federal Register,Notice of Request for Comments on Executive Order“Americas Supply Chains,”(Washington,D.C.:Defense Department,April 13,2021),Center for Security and Emerging Technology|42 https:/www.federalregister.gov/documents/2

294、021/04/13/2021-07539/notice-of-request-for-comments-on-executive-order-americas-supply-chains;Federal Register,Notice of Request for Public Comments on Risks in the Information Communications Technology Supply Chain,(Washington,D.C.:Department of Commerce,September 20,2021),https:/www.federalregiste

295、r.gov/documents/2021/09/20/2021-20229/notice-of-request-for-public-comments-on-risks-in-the-information-communications-technology-supply;Federal Register,Notice of Request for Information(RFI)on Energy Sector Supply Chain Review,(Washington,D.C.:Department of Energy,November 29,2021),https:/www.fede

296、ralregister.gov/documents/2021/11/29/2021-25898/notice-of-request-for-information-rfi-on-energy-sector-supply-chain-review;Federal Register,Notice of Request for Information(RFI)on Risks in the High-Capacity Batteries,Including Electric Vehicle Batteries Supply Chain,(Washington,D.C.:Department of E

297、nergy,March 29,2021),https:/www.federalregister.gov/documents/2021/03/29/2021-06337/notice-of-request-for-information-rfi-on-risks-in-the-high-capacity-batteries-including-electric;Federal Register,Supply Chains for the Production of Agricultural Commodities and Food Products,(Washington,D.C.:Agricu

298、ltural Marketing Service,April 21,2021),https:/www.federalregister.gov/documents/2021/04/21/2021-08152/supply-chains-for-the-production-of-agricultural-commodities-and-food-products;Federal Register,Americas Supply Chains and the Transportation Industrial Base,(Washington,D.C.:Department of Transpor

299、tation,September 16,2021),https:/www.federalregister.gov/documents/2021/09/16/2021-19974/americas-supply-chains-and-the-transportation-industrial-base;Federal Register,Risks in the Semiconductor Manufacturing and Advanced Packaging Supply Chain,(Washington,D.C.:Department of Commerce,March 15,2021),

300、https:/www.federalregister.gov/documents/2021/03/15/2021-05353/risks-in-the-semiconductor-manufacturing-and-advanced-packaging-supply-chain;Federal Register,Request for Public Comments on Supply Chain Issues To Support the U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council Secure Supply Chains Working Group,(Wash

301、ington,D.C.:Department of Commerce,April 6,2022),https:/www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/04/06/2022-07211/request-for-public-comments-on-supply-chain-issues-to-support-the-us-eu-trade-and-technology-council;Federal Register,Access to Fertilizer:Competition and Supply Chain Concerns,(Washington

302、,D.C.:Agricultural Marketing Service,March 17,2022),https:/www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/03/17/2022-05670/access-to-fertilizer-competition-and-supply-chain-concerns;Federal Register,Joint FERC-DOE Supply Chain Risk Management,Technical Conference;Supplemental Notice of Technical Conference,

303、(Washington,D.C.:Federal Energy Regulatory Commission,November 14,2022),https:/www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/11/14/2022-24710/joint-ferc-doe-supply-chain-risk-management-technical-conference-supplemental-notice-of-technical;Federal Register,Review of Controls for Certain Emerging Technologi

304、es,(Washington,D.C.:Department of Commerce,November 19,2018),https:/www.federalregister.gov/documents/2018/11/19/2018-25221/review-of-controls-for-certain-emerging-technologies;Federal Register,Identification and Review of Controls for Certain Foundational Technologies,(Washington,D.C.:Department of

305、 Commerce,August 27,2020),https:/www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/08/27/2020-18910/identification-and-review-of-controls-for-certain-foundational-technologies;Center for Security and Emerging Technology|43 Federal Register,The National Strategy to Secure 5G Implementation Plan,(Washington,D.C.

306、:Department of Commerce,May 28,2020),https:/www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/05/28/2020-11398/the-national-strategy-to-secure-5g-implementation-plan;Federal Register,Request for Comments Concerning the Imposition of Export Controls on Certain Brain-Computer Interface(BCI)Emerging Technology,(W

307、ashington,D.C.:Department of Commerce,October 26,2021),https:/www.federalregister.gov/documents/2021/10/26/2021-23256/request-for-comments-concerning-the-imposition-of-export-controls-on-certain-brain-computer;Federal Register,Request for Comments Concerning the Imposition of Section 1758 Technology

308、 Export Controls on Instruments for the Automated Chemical Synthesis of Peptides,(Washington,D.C.:Department of Commerce,September 13,2022),https:/www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/09/13/2022-19430/request-for-comments-concerning-the-imposition-of-section-1758-technology-export-controls-on;Fede

309、ral Register,Request for Information;National Biotechnology and Biomanufacturing Initiative,(Washington,D.C.:Office of Science and Technology Policy,December 20,2022),https:/www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/12/20/2022-27600/request-for-information-national-biotechnology-and-biomanufacturing-in

310、itiative;Federal Register,Accelerating Innovations in Emerging Technologies,(Washington,D.C.:Department of Energy,November 8,2022),https:/www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/11/08/2022-24250/accelerating-innovations-in-emerging-technologies;Federal Register,Request for Comments on Artificial Inte

311、lligence Export Competitiveness,(Washington,D.C.:Department of Commerce,August 16,2022),https:/www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/08/16/2022-17576/request-for-comments-on-artificial-intelligence-export-competitiveness;Federal Register,Public Wireless Supply Chain Innovation Fund Implementation,(

312、Washington,D.C.:Department of Commerce,December 13,2022),https:/www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/12/13/2022-26938/public-wireless-supply-chain-innovation-fund-implementation;Federal Register,Commerce Control List:Controls on Certain Marine Toxins,(Washington,D.C.:Department of Commerce,May 23,

313、2022),https:/www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/05/23/2022-10907/commerce-control-list-controls-on-certain-marine-toxins.80 Rotolo,Hicks,and Martin,“What Is an Emerging Technology?”8.81 Rotolo,Hicks,and Martin,“What Is an Emerging Technology?”82 Yoshizumi Ishino,Mart Krupovic,and Patrick Forterr

314、e,“History of CRISPR-Cas from Encounter with a Mysterious Repeated Sequence to Genome Editing Technology,”Journal of Bacteriology 7,(April 1,2018),https:/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5847661/.83“Networks Course blog for INFO 2040/CS 2850/Econ 2040/SOC 2090:The History of PageRank and Iterative Searching Algorithms,”Cornell University,October 25,2017,https:/blogs.cornell.edu/info2040/2017/10/25/the-history-of-pagerank-and-iterative-searching-algorithms/.