Enverus - 創建未來的網格-存儲機會.pdf

《Enverus - 創建未來的網格-存儲機會.pdf》由會員分享，可在線閱讀，更多相關《Enverus - 創建未來的網格-存儲機會.pdf（30頁珍藏版）》請在三個皮匠報告上搜索。

1、Creating the Grid of the Future|Opportunities for Storage|ENVERUS.COM|1zMarch 20th,2024 Opportunities for StorageCreating the Grid of the Future|Opportunities for Storage|ENVERUS.COM|2Juan Arteaga,PhDSenior ACreating the Grid of the Future|Opportunities for Storage|ENVERUS.COM|3Interconnection Queue

2、 PredictionsLong-Term Load ForecastLMP VolatilityEnergy Storage Strategies Creating the Grid of the Future|Opportunities for Storage|ENVERUS.COM|4Interconnection Queue PredictionsLong-Term Load ForecastLMP VolatilityEnergy Storage Strategies Creating the Grid of the Future|Opportunities for Storage|

3、ENVERUS.COM|5Total Queued Capacity by ISOSource|Enverus Intelligence Research-50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000CAISOERCOTSPPMISOPJMNYISOISO-NECapacity(MW)OtherOilHydroNatural GasOnshore WindOffshore WindSolar PVStorageCreating the Grid of the Future|Opportunities

4、 for Storage|ENVERUS.COM|6Source|Enverus IntelligenceResearchHistorical Project Completions and Suspensions73%54%75%77%81%80%72%84%84%-20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000201520162017201820192020202120222023Capacity(MW)OperatingSuspendedCreating the Grid of the

5、 Future|Opportunities for Storage|ENVERUS.COM|7Source|Enverus IntelligenceResearchEnverus IntelligenceResearch(EIR)View on Project ViabilityProbability of Completion0-40%60-80%80-100%40-60%15%29%7%1%1%-50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000CAISOERCOTMISOPJMISO-NECapacity(MW)C

6、reating the Grid of the Future|Opportunities for Storage|ENVERUS.COM|8Source|Enverus IntelligenceResearchDeveloper Queue Capacity Grouped by Probability of SuccessProject Developer0-40%60-85%80-100%40-60%-500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000Capacity(MW)Creating the Grid of the Future|Opport

7、unities for Storage|ENVERUS.COM|9Source|Enverus IntelligenceResearch,EIAEIR Forecast Capacity Mix050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000Operating Capacity(MW)Year/MonthCoalNuclearGeothermalOtherHydroGasWindOffshore WindSolarStorageCreating the Grid of the Future|Opportunities for Storage|ENVERUS.COM|10I

8、nterconnection Queue PredictionsLong-Term Load ForecastLMP VolatilityEnergy Storage Strategies Creating the Grid of the Future|Opportunities for Storage|ENVERUS.COM|11Source|Enverus IntelligenceResearch,CAISOHistorical Load TrendsDaily AverageAnnualDemand2011 2012201320142015 20162017 20182019 2020

9、2021 20222023 210 215 220 225 230 235 240 20 22 24 26 28 30 32Total Annual Demand(TWh)Daily Average Demand(GWh)CAISO 250 300 350 400 450 500 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60Total Annual Demand(TWh)Daily Average Demand(GWh)ERCOT2011 2012201320142015 20162017 20182019 2020 2021 20222023Creating the Grid of the

10、 Future|Opportunities for Storage|ENVERUS.COM|12Increase in Demand Electrification Climate ChangeDecrease in Demand BTM SolarDemand Time Shift Time of Use BTM StorageIncrease and Time Shift EV AdoptionSource|Enverus IntelligenceResearchFour Types of Drivers Based on Their Impact on LoadCreating the

11、Grid of the Future|Opportunities for Storage|ENVERUS.COM|13Source|United States Census Bureau,EIA,Bureau of Economic AnalysisHistorical and Forecast for Current Load FactorsHistoricalForecast 35 36 36 37 37 38 38 39 39 40 4020102013201620192022202520282031203420372040204320462049Population(Milllion)

12、Population$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000$3,500$4,000$4,500$5,00020102013201620192022202520282031203420372040204320462049GDP PC(Million$)GDP 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,60020102013201620192022202520282031203420372040204320462049Cooling Degree Days WeatherCreating the Grid of the F

13、uture|Opportunities for Storage|ENVERUS.COM|14Source|Enverus IntelligenceResearchHistorical and Forecast Unconstrained DemandHistoricalTrendTotal Annual Demand225235245255265275201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204

14、02041204220432044204520462047204820492050Annual Demand(TWh)Creating the Grid of the Future|Opportunities for Storage|ENVERUS.COM|15Source|Enverus IntelligenceResearchLong-Term Load Impact by Driver(15,000)(10,000)(5,000)05,00010,00020232024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039

15、20402041204220432044204520462047204820492050Impact on Demand(MWh)BTM_solarClimate ChangeElectrificationEV AdoptionBTM_storageTime of UseBTM SolarBTM StorageYear/HourCreating the Grid of the Future|Opportunities for Storage|ENVERUS.COM|16Source|Enverus IntelligenceResearch,CAISOCombination of Drivers

16、 To Change Daily Load Profile 215 225 235 245 255 265 275 285 295 305 315 20 25 30 35 4020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044204520462047204820492050Total Annual Demand(TWh)Daily Average Hourly(GWh

17、)Year/HourHistorical Hourly Average DemandForecast Hourly Average DemandTotal Annual DemandCreating the Grid of the Future|Opportunities for Storage|ENVERUS.COM|17Interconnection Queue PredictionsLong-Term Load ForecastLMP VolatilityEnergy Storage Strategies Creating the Grid of the Future|Opportuni

18、ties for Storage|ENVERUS.COM|18Source|Enverus IntelligenceResearchGeneration Forecast(20,000)(10,000)010,00020,00030,00040,00050,000Average Generation(MWh)Year/HourCoalNuclearGeothermalOtherHydroWindOffshoreWindSolarStorageGasSolar CurtailedWind CurtailedLoadOffshore WindCreating the Grid of the Fut

19、ure|Opportunities for Storage|ENVERUS.COM|19Monthly Gas and Storage GenerationSource|Enverus Intelligence Research 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020412042204320442045Percent of Net Load(%)Year/MonthGasStorageCreating the Grid of t

20、he Future|Opportunities for Storage|ENVERUS.COM|20Source|Enverus IntelligenceResearchAverage Monthly Price and Daily Spread$30$35$40$45$50$55$60$65$70$75$-$20$40$60$80$100$120$140$160$180$200Daily Spread($/MWh)Energy Price($/MWh)Year/MonthEnergy PriceSpreadCreating the Grid of the Future|Opportuniti

21、es for Storage|ENVERUS.COM|21Source|Enverus IntelligenceResearchAnnual Spreads and Storage Arbitrage Revenues$30$35$40$45$50$55$60$65$70$-$1,000$2,000$3,000$4,000$5,000$6,000$7,0002024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020412042204320442045Daily Spread($/MWh)Annual Revenu

22、e per MW($)Revenue/MWSpreadCreating the Grid of the Future|Opportunities for Storage|ENVERUS.COM|22Interconnection Queue PredictionsLong-Term Load ForecastLMP VolatilityEnergy Storage Strategies Creating the Grid of the Future|Opportunities for Storage|ENVERUS.COM|23%Capacity by Service Source|Enver

23、us Intelligence Research 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecPercentage of Capacity(%)CAISOEnergyReg UpSpinNon Spin0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecPercentage of Capacity(%)ERCOTEnergy RegUpRRSECRSNonSpinCreating the Grid of the Fu

24、ture|Opportunities for Storage|ENVERUS.COM|24Storage Capacity and Revenue TimelineSource|Enverus Intelligence Research -500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000$-$50$100$150$200$250$300$350$400$450123456789101112123456789101112123456789101112202120222023Installed Capacity(MW)Revenue

25、($MM)Installed Storage Capacity(MW)EnergyRegUpRegDnRRSNonSpinECRSCreating the Grid of the Future|Opportunities for Storage|ENVERUS.COM|252023 Revenue by Service and ProfitabilitySource|Enverus Intelligence Research 20320313220520311111120378677867645264526464525140101020201010101010 1010 10101010101

26、0101010101010101010101212141010101820181010101010101017 1012 1018 172100%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%$-$5,000,000$10,000,000$15,000,000$20,000,000$25,000,000$30,000,000$35,000,000$40,000,000$45,000,000$50,000,000Profitability Index(%)Revenue($)EnergyRegUpRegDnRRSNonSpinECRSProfitabilityCapacity(M

27、Wh)Creating the Grid of the Future|Opportunities for Storage|ENVERUS.COM|262023 Revenue by Service and Profitability for 10 MWh AssetsSource|Enverus Intelligence Research 10101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010100%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%$-$500,000$1,000,000

28、$1,500,000$2,000,000$2,500,000$3,000,000$3,500,000$4,000,000$4,500,000$5,000,000Profitability Index(%)Revenue($)EnergyRegUpRegDnRRSNonSpinECRSProfitabilityCreating the Grid of the Future|Opportunities for Storage|ENVERUS.COM|27Location of Storage and Portfolio ProfitabilitySource|Enverus Intelligenc

29、e Research 61%49%46%42%41%41%38%37%31%26%25%15%14%14%11%5%2%2%0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Profitability Index(%)DownstreamUpstreamCreating the Grid of the Future|Opportunities for Storage|ENVERUS.COM|282024 Expected Storage Capacity by OwnerSource|Enverus Intelligence Research Creating the Gr

30、id of the Future|Opportunities for Storage|ENVERUS.COM|29Juan Arteaga,PhDSenior ACreating the Grid of the Future|Opportunities for Storage|ENVERUS.COM|30ENVERUS INTELLIGENCE|RESEARCH DISCLOSURE STATEMENT:Copyright 2023 Enverus Intelligence Research,Inc.,a part of Enverus.All rights reserved.The mate

31、rial in this report is the property of Enverus Intelligence Research,Inc.(“EIR”)unless otherwise indicated.All trademarks,service marks and logos used in this report are proprietary to EIR or Enverus.This report is provided solely to clients of EIR.Furthermore,this report is proprietary,confidential

32、 and provided for the exclusive use of the recipient and may not be redistributed to or shared with any individual,company or entity outside of your organization without the express prior written consent of EIR.The material presented in this report is provided for information purposes only and is no

33、t to be used or considered as a recommendation to buy,hold or sell any securities or other financial instruments.Information contained herein has been compiled by EIR and prepared from various public and industry sources that we believe to be reliable,but no representation or warranty,expressed or i

34、mplied is made by EIR,its affiliates or any other person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information.Such information is provided with the expectation that it will be read as part of a mosaic of analysis and should not be relied upon on a stand-alone basis.Past performance should not be ta

35、ken as an indication or guarantee of future performance,and we make no representation or warranty regarding future performance.The opinions expressed in this report reflect the judgment of EIR as of the date of this report and are subject to change at any time as new or additional data and informati

36、on is received and analyzed.EIR undertakes no duty to update this report,or to provide supplemental information to any client receiving this report.To the full extent provided by law,neither EIR nor any of its affiliates,nor any other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequ

37、ential loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained herein.The recipient assumes all risks and liability with regard to any use or application of the data included herein.EIR provides custom research to its clients which are distributed on different frequency schedules.Custo

38、m research reports may provide different depths of analysis and more frequent updates based on levels of service and fees selected by clients.No EIR directors,officers or employees are on the Board of Directors of a subject company and no one at a subject company is on the Board of Directors of EIR.

39、EIR does not invest in any securities or manage any securities portfolios.Therefore,it would have no investment relationship with a subject company.Furthermore all employees are subject to restrictions on trading in energy company securities.The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the

40、research analysts personal views about the subject securities.EIR analysts are compensated from overall firm revenue only and are not compensated to express any view about an issuer or from proceeds derived from any particular transaction between EIR or any of its affiliates and an issuer.Any compan

41、y whose equity securities are the subject of analysis in this report and who is or was a subscriber client of EIR in the preceding twelve months for research products or services is disclosed as follows:NextEra Energy.Enverus and its affiliated companies,including EIR,serve over 6,000 customers glob

42、ally and is reasonably likely to have received compensation for products or services in the preceding twelve months from any company mentioned in this report.Equity owners of Enverus include affiliated entities of Hellman&Friedman and Genstar Capital,each of whom separately sponsor and manage privat

43、e investment funds and may make investments in,or otherwise seek to do business with,a company or companies covered by this report.EIR has adopted and implemented policies and procedures reasonably designed to maintain the independence of its research coverage in an attempt to mitigate any potential

44、 conflict of interest related to such activities.Valuation and MethodologyEIR valuations are based primarily on calculations of net asset value(NAV),which are derived using discounted cash flow(DCF)models.The NAV model begins with an evaluation of a companys proved developed reserves using industry-

45、standard decline analysis.EIR then assesses the companys land holdings using a variety of technical data sources(geology,completion,historical production,etc.)to estimate the viability of the acreage for future drilling.Each well has an associated capital and operating cost structure that is incorpo

46、rated into EIRs model,which also accounts for hedges,debt,taxes,general and administrative costs,and other corporate-level financial inputs.EIR typically runs a number of sensitivities around key variables,such as well cost,reserves and commodity prices,to show the range of possible outcomes.Note to

47、 U.K.PersonsEIR is not an authorized person as defined in the U.K.s Financial Services and Markets Act 2000(“FSMA“)and the content of this report has not been approved by such an authorized person.You will accordingly not be able to rely upon most of the rules made under FSMA for the protection of c

48、lients of financial services businesses,and you will not have the benefit of the U.K.s Financial Services Compensation Scheme.This document is only directed at(a)persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments(being investment professionals within the meaning of Article 1

49、9(5)of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000(Financial Promotion)Order 2005(the“FPO“),and(b)High net worth companies,trusts etc of a type described in Article 49(2)of the FPO(all such persons being“relevant persons“).EIRs services are available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in o

50、nly with relevant persons.This report must not be acted or relied upon by persons who are not relevant persons.Persons of a type described in Article 49(2)of the FPO comprise(a)any body corporate which has,or which is a member of the same group as an undertaking which has,a called up share capital o

51、r net assets of not less than(i)in the case of a body corporate which has more than 20 members or is a subsidiary undertaking of an undertaking which has more than 20 members,500,000 and(ii)in any other case,5 million,(b)any unincorporated association or partnership which has net assets of not less

52、than 5 million,(c)the trustee of a high value trust within the meaning of Article 49(6)of the FPO and(d)any person(A)whilst acting in the capacity of director,officer or employee of a person(B)falling within any of(a),(b)or(c)above where As responsibilities,when acting in that capacity,involve him in Bs engaging in investment activity.