Fractal EMS - 在優化路徑中您在哪里可能會虧損.pdf

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1、ENERGY STORAGE CONTROLS AND SOFTWARE LANDSCAPEFractal EMS Inc.Where Along the Optimization Pathway Could You Be Losing Money?Fractal EMS Inc.2Software StackPROJECT LOCATIONPLANOLDEVELOPMENTOPERATIONSThe following tools help developers and owners maximize investments in storageIdentify locations with

2、 line capacity that have existing or forecasted volatility.PROJECT MODELINGCONTROLSTechnoeconomic tool that maximizes project value that balances CAPEX,OPEX and revenueVertical controls platform that includes software,controllers,and integrationMONITORING/O&MBID OPTIMIZERANALYTICSReal-time human mon

3、itoring and asset management,including remote troubleshooting and system restorationOptimize between revenue and costs,then submit offers automatically to the QSE.Tools that identify anomalous batteries,predict equipment failures and create automated reports123456Fractal EMS Inc.3Software StackPROJE

4、CT LOCATIONPLANOLDEVELOPMENTOPERATIONSIdentify locations with line capacity that have existing or forecasted volatility.PROJECT MODELINGCONTROLSTechnoeconomic tool that maximizes project value that balances CAPEX,OPEX and revenueVertical controls platform that includes software,controllers,and integ

5、rationMONITORING/O&MBID OPTIMIZERANALYTICSReal-time human monitoring and asset management,including remote troubleshooting and system restorationOptimize between revenue and costs,then submit offers automatically to the QSE.Tools that identify anomalous batteries,predict equipment failures and creat

6、e automated reports123456BatterySIMMBatteryOSPowerDevFractal ModelAscend AnalyticsFractal EMSWartsila GEMSFluenceNexteraFractal O&MNovasourceFractal OptimizerAutobidderTenaskaCESFractal ReportsTwaiceVoltaiqFractal EMS Inc.4Problem/OpportunityLocation/Procurement:Nodal vs hub volatility Self-integrat

7、ion vs traditional integratorAvailability:Causes of downtime 95%vs 98%Warranty Optimization:Sizing(MW/MWh)and augmentations Business model/revenue stack(365 cycles/yr vs reality)Long-term Health:Prolong the lifetime Avoid firesBid Optimization:Market revenue:Baseline vs reality BreakevenFractal EMS

8、Inc.5Problem/OpportunityLocation/Procurement:+2%Nodal vs hub volatility Self-integration vs traditional integratorAvailability:Causes of downtime 95%vs 98%Warranty Optimization:Sizing(MW/MWh)and augmentations Business model/revenue stack(365 cycles/yr vs reality)Long-term Health:Prolong the lifetime

9、 Avoid firesBid Optimization:Market revenue:Baseline vs reality BreakevenFractal EMS Inc.6Problem/OpportunityLocation/Procurement:+2%/-5.5%Nodal vs hub volatility Self-integration vs traditional integratorAvailability:Causes of downtime 95%vs 98%Warranty Optimization:Sizing(MW/MWh)and augmentations

10、Business model/revenue stack(365 cycles/yr vs reality)Long-term Health:Prolong the lifetime Avoid firesBid Optimization:Market revenue:Baseline vs reality BreakevenFractal EMS Inc.7Problem/OpportunityLocation/Procurement:+2%/-5.5%Nodal vs hub volatility Self-integration vs traditional integratorAvai

11、lability:+0.4%Causes of downtime 95%vs 98%Warranty Optimization:Sizing(MW/MWh)and augmentations Business model/revenue stack(365 cycles/yr vs reality)Long-term Health:Prolong the lifetime Avoid firesBid Optimization:Market revenue:Baseline vs reality BreakevenFractal EMS Inc.8Problem/OpportunityLoca

12、tion/Procurement:+2%/-5.5%Nodal vs hub volatility Self-integration vs traditional integratorAvailability:+0.4%Causes of downtime 95%vs 98%Warranty Optimization:+1.3%Sizing(MW/MWh)and augmentations Business model/revenue stack(365 cycles/yr vs reality)Long-term Health:Prolong the lifetime Avoid fires

13、Bid Optimization:Market revenue:Baseline vs reality BreakevenFractal EMS Inc.9Problem/OpportunityLocation/Procurement:+2%/-5.5%Nodal vs hub volatility Self-integration vs traditional integratorAvailability:+0.4%Causes of downtime 95%vs 98%Warranty Optimization:+1.3%Sizing(MW/MWh)and augmentations Bu

14、siness model/revenue stack(365 cycles/yr vs reality)Long-term Health:+0.6%Prolong the lifetime Avoid firesBid Optimization:Market revenue:Baseline vs reality BreakevenFractal EMS Inc.10Problem/OpportunityLocation/Procurement:+2%/-5.5%Nodal vs hub volatility Self-integration vs traditional integrator

15、Availability:+0.4%Causes of downtime 95%vs 98%Warranty Optimization:+1.3%Sizing(MW/MWh)and augmentations Business model/revenue stack(365 cycles/yr vs reality)Long-term Health:+0.6%Prolong the lifetime Avoid firesBid Optimization:+0.3%Market revenue:Baseline vs reality BreakevenFractal EMS Inc.11Pro

16、blem/OpportunityLocation/Procurement:+2%/-5.5%Nodal vs hub volatility Self-integration vs traditional integratorAvailability:+0.4%Causes of downtime 95%vs 98%Warranty Optimization:+1.3%Sizing(MW/MWh)and augmentations Business model/revenue stack(365 cycles/yr vs reality)Long-term Health:+0.6%Prolong

17、 the lifetime Avoid firesBid Optimization:+2%Market revenue:Baseline vs reality BreakevenPre-CODPost-CODFractal EMS Inc.12Location(+2%)Fractal EMS Inc.13Availability(+0.4%):Causes of DowntimeInternetMost internet is only 98%available,some offer 99%SLAs,but its often difficult to find reliable intern

18、et in remote locations mitigate by using several sources(e.g.,two land lines and two cell modems)InvertersInverters are one of the lowest cost components,but they cause an outsized amount of site downtime.Paying for higher quality inverters or having a large spare parts inventory will pay dividends.

19、Thermal ManagementThermal management works welluntil it doesnt.Adjusting an air cooled system can delay COD,while replacing proprietary liquid cooled equipment will be a risk.Fire SystemMany fire systems have accidentally discharged.This has resulted in lost equipment and has caused sites to lose re

20、venue.EMS/BatteriesThese are lower risks,but can be painful to repair.Fractal EMS Inc.14Availability(+0.4%):Causes of DowntimeInternetMost internet is only 98%available,some offer 99%SLAs,but its often difficult to find reliable internet in remote locations mitigate by using several sources(e.g.,two

21、 land lines and two cell modems)InvertersInverters are one of the lowest cost components,but they cause an outsized amount of site downtime.Paying for higher quality inverters or having a large spare parts inventory will pay dividends.Thermal ManagementThermal management works welluntil it doesnt.Ad

22、justing an air cooled system can delay COD,while replacing proprietary liquid cooled equipment will be a risk.Fire SystemMany fire systems have accidentally discharged.This has resulted in lost equipment and has caused sites to lose revenue.EMS/BatteriesThese are lower risks,but can be painful to re

23、pair.90%Fractal EMS Inc.1595%vs 99%Availability(+0.4%)Cheap inverters and cheap thermal management 95%Availability 15.7%IRR25%more expensive inverters and thermal management(1.5%CAPEX)99%Availability 16.1%IRRBattery hard cost$127,680,379319.20$/kWhDev Fee$00.00$/kWTotal capitalized ITC eligible cost

24、s$127,680,379319.20$/kWhNetwork Upgrades,not ITC eligible$0-$/kWBattery soft cost,not ITC eligible$1,000,00010.00$/kWTotal battery cost$128,680,379321.70$/kWhBattery hard cost$125,755,154314.39$/kWhDev Fee$00.00$/kWTotal capitalized ITC eligible costs$125,755,154314.39$/kWhNetwork Upgrades,not ITC e

25、ligible$0-$/kWBattery soft cost,not ITC eligible$1,000,00010.00$/kWTotal battery cost$126,755,154316.89$/kWhFractal EMS Inc.1695%vs 99%Availability(+0.4%)Cheap inverters and cheap thermal management 95%Availability 15.7%IRR25%more expensive inverters and thermal management(1.5%CAPEX)99%Availability

26、16.1%IRRBattery hard cost$127,680,379319.20$/kWhDev Fee$00.00$/kWTotal capitalized ITC eligible costs$127,680,379319.20$/kWhNetwork Upgrades,not ITC eligible$0-$/kWBattery soft cost,not ITC eligible$1,000,00010.00$/kWTotal battery cost$128,680,379321.70$/kWhBattery hard cost$125,755,154314.39$/kWhDe

27、v Fee$00.00$/kWTotal capitalized ITC eligible costs$125,755,154314.39$/kWhNetwork Upgrades,not ITC eligible$0-$/kWBattery soft cost,not ITC eligible$1,000,00010.00$/kWTotal battery cost$126,755,154316.89$/kWhPayback:2.5 yearsFractal EMS Inc.1795%vs 99%Availability(+0.4%)Cheap inverters and cheap the

28、rmal management 95%Availability 15.7%IRR25%more expensive inverters and thermal management(1.5%CAPEX)99%Availability 16.1%IRRBattery hard cost$127,680,379319.20$/kWhDev Fee$00.00$/kWTotal capitalized ITC eligible costs$127,680,379319.20$/kWhNetwork Upgrades,not ITC eligible$0-$/kWBattery soft cost,n

29、ot ITC eligible$1,000,00010.00$/kWTotal battery cost$128,680,379321.70$/kWhBattery hard cost$125,755,154314.39$/kWhDev Fee$00.00$/kWTotal capitalized ITC eligible costs$125,755,154314.39$/kWhNetwork Upgrades,not ITC eligible$0-$/kWBattery soft cost,not ITC eligible$1,000,00010.00$/kWTotal battery co

30、st$126,755,154316.89$/kWhAvailability Performance Guarantee 1.3%/yr of equipment 98%Availability 14.3%IRR(-1.4%)Fractal EMS Inc.18Warranty Optimization(+1.3%)25%more expensive inverters and thermal management 99%Availability 300 cycles per year 16.1%IRR25%more expensive inverters and thermal managem

31、ent 99%Availability 365 cycles per year 15.2%IRR0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%0510152025303540Battery CapacityYearStandard 365 Cycle WarrantyCapacityReserve CapacityUseable Capacity0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%0510152025303540Battery CapacityYearStandard 365 Cycle WarrantyCapacityReserv

32、e CapacityUseable CapacityFractal EMS Inc.19Prolong Health(+0.6%)25%more expensive inverters and thermal management 99%Availability 300 cycles per year 50%rSOC 21 yr 16.1%IRR25%more expensive inverters and thermal management 99%Availability 300 cycles per year 25%rSOC 26 yr 16.7%IRR0.0%20.0%40.0%60.

33、0%80.0%100.0%120.0%0510152025303540Battery CapacityYearStandard 365 Cycle WarrantyCapacityReserve CapacityUseable Capacity0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%0510152025303540Battery CapacityYearStandard 365 Cycle WarrantyCapacityReserve CapacityUseable CapacityFractal EMS Inc.20Bid Optimization(+0.3

34、%)Bid Optimizers use a combination of price forecasts and proprietary machine learning methods to generate market schedules that maximize profitability,while accounting for costs(losses,degradation and auxiliary loads).Fractal EMS Inc.21Bid Optimization(+0.3%)August 2023:ERCOT Battery output closely

35、 followed the average energy price.Fractal EMS Inc.22Bid Optimization(+0.3%)August 2023:But Day Ahead Ancillary Services far exceeded energy market participation.Fractal EMS Inc.23Bid Optimization(+0.3%)August 2023:Batteries missed the energy price peaks when peaks were outside typical hours.Fractal

36、 EMS Inc.24Bid Optimization(+0.3%)August 2023:Batteries missed the energy price peaks when peaks were outside typical hours.Batteries available during typical hours still captured the peaks as they happened again in the day.Fractal EMS Inc.25Bid Optimization(+0.3%)August 2023:Surely batteries will d

37、o better on the 3rd consecutive day.No Fractal EMS Inc.26Bid Optimization(+0.3%)Perfect(unattainable):25%more expensive inverters&thermal management 99%Availability 100%perfect,0%fees 16.1%IRRDo nothing(no bid opt):25%more expensive inverters&thermal management 99%Availability 95%perfect,0%fees 15.3

38、%IRROptimistic(not realistic):25%more expensive inverters&thermal management 99%Availability 99%perfect,1%fees 15.72%IRRFractal(realistic):25%more expensive inverters&thermal management 99%Availability 98%perfect,0.5%fees 15.65%IRR0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%18.00%PerfectDo Noth

39、ingOptimisticRealisticFractal EMS Inc.27ComparisonCheap inverters and thermal management 95%Availability 365 cycles per year 99%perfect,1%fee 50%rSOC 18 yr 14.4%IRR25%more expensive inverters and thermal management 99%Availability 300 cycles per year 98%perfect,0.5%fee 25%rSOC 26 yr volatile node 18

40、.3%IRR0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%0510152025303540Battery CapacityYearStandard 365 Cycle WarrantyCapacityReserve CapacityUseable Capacity0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%0510152025303540Battery CapacityYearStandard 365 Cycle WarrantyCapacityReserve CapacityUseable CapacityFractal EMS Inc.

41、28ComparisonCheap inverters and thermal management 95%Availability 365 cycles per year 99%perfect,1%fee 50%rSOC 18 yr 14.4%IRR25%more expensive inverters and thermal management 99%Availability 300 cycles per year 98%perfect,0.5%fee 25%rSOC 26 yr volatile node 18.3%IRR0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%12

42、0.0%0510152025303540Battery CapacityYearStandard 365 Cycle WarrantyCapacityReserve CapacityUseable Capacity0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%0510152025303540Battery CapacityYearStandard 365 Cycle WarrantyCapacityReserve CapacityUseable CapacityTraditional Integrator:8.9%Traditional Integrator:12.8%ENERGY STORAGE CONTROLS AND SOFTWARE LANDSCAPEFractal EMS Inc.Questions