畢馬威：2020年Covid-19危機下的媒體娛樂市場報告（英文版）（16頁）.pdf

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1、A media and entertainment sector perspective home.kpmg/in April 2020 https:/home.kpmg/in/covid-19 COVID-19: The many shades of a crisis Foreword The COVID-19 pandemic began at a time of increasing global economic vulnerability. There were already genuine concerns of falling consumption levels and in

2、vestment alongside rising unemployment. Brexit and the U.S-China trade war hadnt helped and there was a palpable sense of uncertainty. Most indicators now suggest that some of the largest economies stand on the precipice of the greatest real recession in nearly 100 years. As far-fetched as it seems

3、right now though, there will be a recovery and people are already asking: how different will the post-COVID-19 era be from the one we knew earlier? The most tangible effect we see is on technology adoption and general versatility with digital commerce and content. We anticipate a considerable accele

4、ration on both fronts for individuals and businesses, which should hopefully do as much for financial inclusion and e-governance, as for streaming services. There has been a perceptible increase in media consumption TV, digital and gaming especially during the last few weeks as people have remained

5、homebound. Monetisation of this trend could prove challenging however, as the media and entertainment sector in India derives a majority of its revenues from the advertising spend of other industries. The recessionary impact on FMCG, financial services, automotive and e-commerce, therefore could hav

6、e a knock- on effect. On the other hand, subscription revenues for the sector could improve over the medium term, as people are exposed and get accustomed to a greater variety of content during this lockdown period. This is predicated on new content being available quickly once the restrictions are

7、lifted, which as per our analysis should correct with a lag of one to four weeks. The segments most affected by the lockdown have been those that rely on a social gathering of people films and events and the recovery here might take longer than anticipated. Certain sections of consumers particularly

8、 those residing in COVID-19 hotspots for example are likely to remain apprehensive of crowds and display a preference for at-home media and entertainment options over outdoor experiences. More generally, there could be a shifting of priorities as we progress to a new normal; the balance between work

9、 and family, wealth and well-being might be re-evaluated with leisure of which media and entertainment is a large part playing a greater role in our lives. Satya Easwaran Partner and Leader Markets Enablement Technology, Media and Telecom (TMT) KPMG in India Girish Menon Partner and Leader Media and

10、 Entertainment KPMG in India 2020 KPMG, an Indian Registered Partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. 01 | COVID-19: The many shades of a crisis 2020 KPMG,

11、 an Indian Registered Partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. COVID-19: The many shades of a crisis | 02 COVID-19: A macro-economic context The COVID-19 p

12、andemic is unique in that it is has not only led to considerable loss of human life, but also widespread economic hardship through concurrent supply (input constraints), demand (spending patterns, consumer confidence) and market (financial conditions impacting wealth) shocks1. Indias real GDP growth

13、 had already decelerated to its lowest in over six years at 4.7 per cent in Q3FY202. The COVID-19 pandemic, resultant lockdown and social distancing measures can only be expected to worsen prospects across manufacturing, services and agriculture. Along with lower consumption levels and higher unempl

14、oyment, the Indian economy is likely to face a particularly challenging time in the months ahead. While recovery timelines are uncertain, KPMG in India has studied three possible scenarios and outlined the impact on Indias GDP under each3: Quick retraction Spread of COVID-19 largely contained by Apr

15、il/May. Indias growth for FY21 in the range of 5.3-5.7 per cent 1. Potential impact of COVD-19 on the Indian economy, KPMG in India, April 2020 2. Quarterly estimates of gross domestic product for the third quarter (Q3) of 2019-20, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) accessed

16、 on 06 April 2020 3. Potential impact of COVD-19 on the Indian economy, KPMG in India, April 2020 Global recession with a containment of spread in India GDP growth in India could be in the range of 4-4.5 per cent for FY21 Virus proliferates in India accompanied by a global recession GDP growth in In

17、dia could fall below 3 per cent for FY21 IIIIII 2020 KPMG, an Indian Registered Partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The many shades of a crisis: an M&

18、E sector perspective The media and entertainment (M&E) sector in India was estimated at INR1,631 billion in FY19 and grew at a compounded annual growth rate of 11.5 per cent over five-year period FY15-FY194. This was against an overall rate of growth in the countrys GDP at 7 .2 per cent during the s

19、ame time5. Typically, media consumption has tended to be income inelastic. However, the current environment is unprecedented and could result in a dip in media consumption in the near term and importantly, a realignment in consumption models. During the lockdown however, certain segments of M&E are

20、seeing consumption growth, particularly in TV, gaming, digital and OTT6. On the other hand, outdoor consumption models films, events, theme parks etc. are witnessing a dramatic fall with social distancing norms in place. Further, most segments (except news related businesses) are unable to offer new

21、 content with production stalling across formats. Many segments of M&E also depend on contract employees/ freelance agents and hence the impact of the crisis on livelihoods in this sector is also considerable. Monetisation in the M&E sector is predominantly reliant on advertising, which has seen a m

22、ajor contraction. Overall ad-spend is determined by the performance of sectors such as FMCG, e-commerce, automotive, financial services, real estate etc., all of which currently face their own challenges and could therefore take time to recover. 03 | COVID-19: The many shades of a crisis There is st

23、ill uncertainty on when we can expect some normalcy to return to our lives. The resultant impact on GDP growth from three such scenarios has been outlined earlier. For the sake of analysis, we assume that normalcy will return at a point in time in the future (T), post which there will be renewed act

24、ivity on content supply, consumption and monetisation. There is however expected to be a lag in the response of these levers in each segment, which we have measured in weeks (e.g. T + 3 would be three weeks post recovery). 4. Indias digital future: Mass of niches, KPMG in India 2019 5. World Develop

25、ment Indicators 6. KPMG in India analysis 2020, based on primary and secondary research 7 . Indias digital future: mass of niches, KPMG in India, 2019 Impact on segments Films TV Animation Radio Print Online gaming OTT Events High Medium Low TV: Glued to the telly but wheres the money? Industry reve

26、nues FY19: INR714 billion7 Overall TV viewing has increased but absence of fresh content. News channels are popular as viewers follow COVID-19 updates in real time Monetisation has dropped substantially with advertisers scaling back on spends Sports could emerge as the big draw when recovery begins,

27、 especially if IPL dates are announced Content Monetisation Consumption T1 week Overall impactSlow ad-spend recovery over the medium term. Long term risks due to digital competition. 2 weeks T+ 2-4 weeks T+ 4-12 weeks T 4 weeks6 weeks8 weeks10 weeks12 week14 weeks16 weeks 2020 KPMG, an Indian Regist

28、ered Partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. COVID-19: The many shades of a crisis | 04 Print: New lease of life Industry revenues FY19: INR333 billion Mo

29、netisation a serious challenge as advertisers scale back expenditures Higher credibility in the face of proliferation of fake news on social media Circulation pick up in near term once restrictions are lifted also resulting in improved ad monetisation Digital presence now more critical and could tra

30、nslate into greater monetisation opportunities Content Monetisation Consumption T1 week Overall impact Segment needs to leverage positive consumer sentiment and build strong digital products to capture the opportunity. 2 weeks T+ 4-12 weeks T T 4 weeks6 weeks8 weeks10 weeks12 week14 weeks16 weeks 20

31、20 KPMG, an Indian Registered Partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. 05 | COVID-19: The many shades of a crisis OTT: Silver lining Industry revenues FY19

32、: INR173 billion Secular rise in OTT consumption in duration, and across demographics and devices Content pipeline has dried up. OTT players with a large, legacy library have an advantage Ad-spends currently down but greater digital allocations by brands likely post recovery OTT players offering ext

33、ended free periods to drive subscription pick up through habit formation Content Monetisation Consumption T1 week Overall impact Habit formation could result in a new normal and accelerated growth in consumption and monetisation. 2 weeks T+ 4-8 weeks T + 2-4 weeks T 4 weeks6 weeks8 weeks10 weeks12 w

34、eek14 weeks16 weeks Films: Disaster at the box office Industry revenues FY19: INR183 billion Footfalls and therefore revenues have dried up with cinema hall closures Rental cost savings anticipated due to invoking of force majeure clause Recovery process may be different across demographics based on

35、 specific COVID-19 experiences and perceived risk from social gathering Medium term release pipelines may be impacted due to crowding of projects and restart of on-hold projects Content Monetisation Consumption T1 week Overall impact Footfalls could take a while to return to normalcy. Risk of narrow

36、ing of theatrical windows. Expansion delays likely. 2 weeks T+ 2-12 weeks T+ 2-12 weeks* T + 2 weeks 4 weeks6 weeks8 weeks10 weeks12 week14 weeks16 weeks *Recovery range determined by socio-economic class of audience and severity of experience with COVID-19 2020 KPMG, an Indian Registered Partnershi

37、p and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. COVID-19: The many shades of a crisis | 06 Animation: Back to the drawing board Industry revenues FY19: INR88 billion Lockdo

38、wn has affected content creation as remote working poses infrastructural challenges Animation and VFX work more long-term so demand could hold up despite crisis TV and digital projects could increase while film projects have taken a bigger hit Segment has high fixed and capital costs so cash flows l

39、ikely to be an issue Content Monetisation Consumption T1 week Overall impact VFX and post-production on films likely to be hit. Animation for TV and digital could recover faster. 2 weeks T+ 8-12 weeks T + 8 weeks T + 4-8 weeks 4 weeks6 weeks8 weeks10 weeks12 week14 weeks16 weeks Online gaming: A dre

40、am run Industry revenues FY19: INR62 billion Noticeable increase in time spent since mid-March Monetisation gap due to lowering of ad-spends Paid models could see growth as online gaming gets more entrenched into overall time spent on M&E Fantasy sports and e-Sports may be adversely impacted with a

41、stalling of sporting activity, as well as potential aversion to social gatherings in certain demographics Content Monetisation Consumption T1 week Overall impact Accelerated growth in consumption and monetisation as isolation allows for habit-forming behaviour. 2 weeks T+ 4-8 weeks T + 4 weeks T 4 w

42、eeks6 weeks8 weeks10 weeks12 week14 weeks16 weeks 2020 KPMG, an Indian Registered Partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. 07 | COVID-19: The many shades o

43、f a crisis Radio: Tuning in Industry revenues FY19: INR28 billion Radio jockeys operating from home so content continues to be refreshed Local and topical content popular as people look to follow COVID-19 news relevant to their specific area Overall decline in advertising revenues, though some brand

44、ing has been converted into CSR Drop in transit audience listeners as people are working from home Content Monetisation Consumption T1 week Overall impact Demand for timely, localised content should remain strong even after recovery. Ad-spends could take time to recover however. 2 weeks T+ 4-12 week

45、s T T 4 weeks6 weeks8 weeks10 weeks12 week14 weeks16 weeks Events: Lights out Industry revenues FY19: NA Multiple events cancelled including IPL, IIFA2020, India Gaming Expo, FDCI Fashion week etc. Industrys losses estimated at around INR 30 billion by the Event and Entertainment Management Associat

46、ion (EEMA)8 Earlier recovery more likely in B2B events before B2C as people continue to remain wary of crowded places Given dominance of small players, the segment could come under severe cash flow pressures Content Monetisation Consumption T1 week Overall impact Live events could see a delayed reco

47、very as social distancing behaviour takes a while to dissipate. Government support essential. 2 weeks T + 8 weeks T + 1216 weeks T + 1216 weeks 4 weeks6 weeks8 weeks10 weeks12 week14 weeks16 weeks 8. “Live events industry sustains near Rs. 3,000 crore losses”, Economic Times online, accessed 06 Marc

48、h 2020 COVID-19: The many shades of a crisis | 08 A whole new world? Insights into the crisis and its aftermath And for the media and entertainment sector Significant and lingering adverse economic fallout Ad-spend pressures to linger on the back of weak economy and lower domestic consumption At-hom

49、e entertainment options (digital, TV, gaming) to see an upswing as lockdown behaviour results in habit formation Longer time lag to return to normalcy for weaker economic sections of the populations Outdoor entertainment (films, events, theme parks) particularly in COVID-19 hotspots to see lingering risk aversion even in the medium term. Pent-up demand behaviour among some sections of population may provide some respite Digital consumption to see rapid incremental growth with Indias digital b