2020年6月全球經濟快照 - 麥肯錫（英文版）（9頁）.pdf

《2020年6月全球經濟快照 - 麥肯錫（英文版）（9頁）.pdf》由會員分享，可在線閱讀，更多相關《2020年6月全球經濟快照 - 麥肯錫（英文版）（9頁）.pdf（9頁珍藏版）》請在三個皮匠報告上搜索。

1、Strategy “WHO coronavirus disease (COVID-19) dashboard,” covid19.who.int. 2 The online survey was in the field from June 1 to June 5, 2020, and garnered responses from 2,222 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust

2、 for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondents nation to global GDP. 3 “Economic Conditions Snapshot, March 2020: McKinsey Global Survey results,” March 2020, McK. 4 Greater China includes Hong Kong and Taiwan. 5 “Economic Conditions Snapshot, April

3、 2009: McKinsey Global Survey results,” April 2009, McK. In the survey, the question asked how current economic conditions compare with conditions in early September 2008. 6 “What executives think about the economy: 2004 to now,” March 2020, McK. 7 Kevin Sneader and Shubham Singhal, “From thinking a

4、bout the next normal to making it work: What to stop, start, and accelerate,” May 2020, McK. 2Economic Conditions Snapshot, June 2020: McKinsey Global Survey results Exhibit 1 Exhibit 2 Current economic conditions in respondents countries, compared with 6 months ago, % of respondents 1Includes Hong

5、Kong and Taiwan. Outside of Greater China, clear majorities of respondents report declining conditions in their home economies. Better Greater China1 (n = 156) Asia Pacifc (n = 258) India (n = 172) Europe (n = 770) Middle East and North Africa (n = 77) North America (n = 530) Latin America (n = 156)

6、 Other developing markets (n = 103) No change Worse 47 8 45 6 6 88 3 8 89 2 3 95 3 97 222 1 97 9898 Current economic conditions, compared with 6 months ago, % of respondents1 1Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. Overall sentiment paints a grim picture of COVID-19s economic efects in th

7、e past six months. Substantially worse Moderately worse No change Moderately better Substantially better Global economyRespondents countries Dec 2019 (n = 1,881) Mar 2020 (n = 1,152) June 2020 (n = 2,222) 2 51 36 11 22 63 9 6 58 30 3 7 2 Substantially worse Moderately worse No change Moderately bett

8、er Substantially better Dec 2019 (n = 1,881) Mar 2020 (n = 1,152) June 2020 (n = 2,222) 5 36 40 16 3 10 51 24 13 1 52 35 3 8 3 Outside of Greater China, clear majorities of respondents report declining conditions in their home economies. Overall sentiment paints a grim picture of COVID-19s economic

9、effects in the past six months. 3Economic Conditions Snapshot, June 2020: McKinsey Global Survey results about one-third say their companies will be fully operational before the end of the year, while an additional 36 percent expect it will take until 2021. Executives in automotive and assembly are

10、the most likely to report some effect on their business, while those in travel, transport, and logistics expect the longest return; over half say it will take until 2021 to be fully operational again. On the other end are respondents in electric power and natural gas, who are the most likely to say

11、theyre already operational or that business activities havent decreased since the COVID-19 crisis began. We also asked about the biggest changesto date, or expectedonce companies are fully operational, and respondents cite the same changes whether or not their businesses are already at that point (E

12、xhibit 4). The most commonly cited changes are a larger share of virtual or remote work, accelerating adoption of business technologies, and the likelihood that digital channels will serve a larger share of customers. But depending on where the company is based, some changes seem likelier than other

13、s. For businesses headquartered in developed economies, respondents most often expect virtual or remote work (63 percent, compared with 41 percent at emerging-economy companies) once their businesses are operational again, while those at emerging-economy firms more often cite different M already ful

14、ly operational or saw no efect Dont know Automotive and assembly (n = 140) Travel, transport, and logistics (n = 87) Consumer and packaged goods (n = 98) High tech/ telecom (n = 264) Pharma and medical products (n = 83) Financial services (n = 308) Electric power and natural gas (n = 76) 11 1 5 12 4

15、0 31 15 16 4 30 33 23 2 23 34 18 25 3 2 9 36 25 32 5 2 12 30 19 41 8 2 8 31 10 27 2 8 34 28 1 1Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. The timeline for returning to full operations in the wake of COVID-19 varies widely by industry. 8 For more on companies adoption of digital technologies a

16、s a result of COVID-19, see Aamer Baig, Bryce Hall, Paul Jenkins, Eric Lamarre, and Brian McCarthy, “The COVID-19 recovery will be digital: A plan for the first 90 days,” May 2020, McK. 4Economic Conditions Snapshot, June 2020: McKinsey Global Survey results since the April and May surveys, as has t

17、he share citing the fast pace of technological changes.9 With respect to opportunities for growth, the shift to new technologies is cited most often, by 35 percent of respondents, up from 26 percent in March. And after reporting record pessimism on expected demand and profits two months ago, executi

18、ves outlook on both fronts is tempering (Exhibit 5). Respondents are more likely to expect demand will increase than decrease, while two months ago, the opposite was true. Views on company profits are still more negative than positive, but the share expecting higher profitability continues to grow.

19、A cautiously optimistic outlook While executives views on the economys current state are decidedly downbeat, their outlook for the future continues to improve. Fifty-two percent believe the world economy will be better six months from now, a share that has continued to climb all year and is the high

20、est its been since June 2014. One-half of respondents say the same for their home economies; in May, 43 percent said so, up from 36 percent in April and 26 percent in March. Outside of Greater China, Latin America, and India where respondents outlooks have held steady executives in every other regio

21、n are more likely than one month ago to expect improvements (Exhibit 6). Exhibit 4 Most signifcant changes to operations and business environment resulting from COVID-19, % of respondents Whether their companies are operational again or not, executives report the same workplace changes as a result o

22、f COVID-19. 1Question was asked only of respondents who said their organizations are fully operational already or that their business activities have not decreased because of COVID-19; n = 211. Respondents who answered “other” or “dont know” are not shown. 2Question was asked only of respondents who

23、 said their organizations are not yet fully operational; n = 1,481. Respondents who answered “other” or “dont know” are not shown. Execute a larger share of our work virtually and remotely Changes to date, since the organization has become fully operational again1 Expected changes, once the organiza

24、tion is fully operational2 Accelerate our adoption of business technologies (eg, digitization, AI, automation) Digital channels serve a larger share of our customers Consolidate at least some of our operations across and/or within geographies Become a more capital- intensive organization Relocate a

25、material share of our supply chain Relocate a material share of our operations Reconfgure the geographic footprint of the markets we serve Pursue diferent M 12 percent cite technological changes in June, up from 7 percent in April and May. In our past three surveys, a coronavirus outbreak was listed

26、 as a risk to company growth and selected by 53 percent of respondents in March 2020, and 37 percent of respondents in April and May 2020. In the June 2020 survey, we removed it from the list of potential risks (14 in total). 5Economic Conditions Snapshot, June 2020: McKinsey Global Survey results E

27、xhibit 5 Exhibit 6 Expected changes at respondents companies, next 6 months, % of respondents1 Respondents expectations for demand and profts are increasingly positive. 1Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding. Questions were asked only of respondents working for private-sector organization

28、s. Decrease No change Increase Dont know Company profts Mar 2020 (n = 1,060) Apr 2020 (n = 1,940) May 2020 (n = 2,290) June 2020 (n = 1,985) 33 22 42 3 61 27 9 3 54 10 33 3 49 11 37 3 Customer demand Decrease No change Increase Dont know Mar 2020 (n = 1,060) Apr 2020 (n = 1,940) May 2020 (n = 2,290)

29、 June 2020 (n = 1,985) 28 32 39 1 48 15 36 1 41 16 43 1 36 22 42 1 Share of respondents expecting economic conditions in home country will be better in 6 months, % In many regions, the outlook for executives home countries has improved since last month. Greater China1 (n = 156) Asia Pacifc (n = 258)

30、 India (n = 172) Europe (n = 770) Middle East and North Africa (n = 77) North America (n = 530) Latin America (n = 156) May 2020 Other developing markets (n = 103) 1Includes Hong Kong and Taiwan. 22 26 22 29 28 34 48 40 41 4545 48 53 76 June 2020 Respondents expectations for demand and profits are i

31、ncreasingly positive. In many regions, the outlook for executives home countries has improved since last month. 6Economic Conditions Snapshot, June 2020: McKinsey Global Survey results When asked about COVID-19s effects on global GDP, respondents continue to choose two of the more optimistic scenari

32、os, as they did in April and May. Out of nine scenarios, they most often pick A1 (in which public-health and economic-policy interventions are partially effective, and the return to precrisis levels of GDP, income, and corporate earnings will take time) and A3 (a stronger scenario, in which the viru

33、s is contained and growth returns slowly to precrisis levels).10 When asked how these scenarios might play out in their own countries, executives are more positive. The largest share (23 percent) rank A3 as the likeliest outcome for their home economies (Exhibit 7). 10 For more on COVID-19 scenarios

34、, see “Crushing coronavirus uncertainty: The big unlock for our economies,” May 2020, McK. Exhibit 7 Most likely scenario for COVID-19s impact on GDP, % of respondents (n = 2,174) When asked about COVID-19 scenarios, respondents expect more positive outcomes for their own countries than the global e

35、conomy. Global economy Virus spread and public- health response Efectiveness of the public-health response Knock-on efects and economic-policy response Efectiveness of government economic policy B3 02040 BETTER BETTER Optimistic Pessimistic WORSE GDP Time Virus contained but sector damage; lower lon

36、g-term trend growth Virus recurrence; slow long-term growth insufcient to deliver full recovery Virus contained; growth returns Virus contained; strong growth rebound Virus recurrence; slow long-term growth; muted world recovery Virus recurrence; return to trend growth; strong world rebound A4A3B1 A

37、2A1B2 B5 B4 Pandemic escalation; prolonged downturn without economic recovery Pandemic escalation; slow progression toward economic recovery Pandemic escalation; delayed but full economic recovery When asked about COVID-19 scenarios, respondents expect more positive outcomes for their own countries

38、than the global economy. 7Economic Conditions Snapshot, June 2020: McKinsey Global Survey results Despite the relative optimism, new risks to growth continue to emerge amid COVID-19. The coronavirus outbreak remains the top threat to both global and domestic growth, as it was in March.11 But social

39、unrest has risen in the ranks. As a global risk, it is cited third most often (31 percent, up from 11 percent three months ago) and at the country level it is a top- five risk, cited by 23 percent of all respondentsup from 10 percent previously. Unemployment is a growing concern as well. Fifty-five

40、percent of executives expect an increase in their home countries in the next six months, up from 44 percent in March and 35 percent in December 2019. In fact, in every region except for North America, a majority of respondents expect their countries unemployment rates will increase (Exhibit 8). Worr

41、ies are especially acute in Latin America and in Europe, where 79 percent and 74 percent, respectively, expect increasing unemployment. 11 In the June survey, 58 percent of respondents say the coronavirus is the top risk to global growth, and 46 percent cite it as the top risk to domestic growth. In

42、 March, 86 percent cited the coronavirus as a global risk and 67 percent cited it as a domestic risk. Exhibit 7 (continued) Most likely scenario for COVID-19s impact on GDP, % of respondents (n = 2,167) When asked about COVID-19 scenarios, respondents expect more positive outcomes for their own coun

43、tries than the global economy. Respondents countries Virus spread and public- health response Efectiveness of the public-health response Knock-on efects and economic-policy response Efectiveness of government economic policy B3 02040 BETTER BETTER Optimistic Pessimistic WORSE GDP Time Virus containe

44、d but sector damage; lower long-term trend growth Virus recurrence; slow long-term growth insufcient to deliver full recovery Virus contained; growth returns Virus contained; strong growth rebound Virus recurrence; slow long-term growth; muted world recovery Virus recurrence; return to trend growth;

45、 strong world rebound A4A3B1 A2A1B2 B5 B4 Pandemic escalation; prolonged downturn without economic recovery Pandemic escalation; slow progression toward economic recovery Pandemic escalation; delayed but full economic recovery 8Economic Conditions Snapshot, June 2020: McKinsey Global Survey results

46、Exhibit 8 Expected changes in unemployment rates, next 6 months, % of respondents1 In most regions, respondents expect their countries unemployment rates will increase. Decrease Greater China2 (n = 156) Asia Pacifc (n = 258) India (n = 172) Europe (n = 770) Middle East and North Africa (n = 77) Nort

47、h America (n = 530) Latin America (n = 156) Other developing markets (n = 103) No change Increase79 9 12 74 4 21 67 13 20 61 8 30 59 4 37 57 14 29 51 14 34 27 7 66 1Figures may not sum to 100%, because respondents who said “dont know” are not shown. 2Includes Hong Kong and Taiwan. In most regions, r

48、espondents expect their countries unemployment rates will increase. Designed by Global Editorial Services Copyright 2020 McKinsey Vivien Singer, a specialist in the North American Knowledge Center; and Sven Smit, a senior partner in the Amsterdam office and a co-chair and director of the McKinsey Global Institute. 9Economic Conditions Snapshot, June 2020: McKinsey Global Survey results