花旗銀行：2020年居家辦公技術報告：居家辦公的新世界（英文版）（110頁）.pdf

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1、Citi is one of the worlds largest financial institutions, operating in all major established and emerging markets. Across these world markets, our employees conduct an ongoing multi-disciplinary conversation accessing information, analyzing data, developing insights, and formulating advice. As our p

2、remier thought leadership product, Citi GPS is designed to help our readers navigate the global economys most demanding challenges and to anticipate future themes and trends in a fast-changing and interconnected world. Citi GPS accesses the best elements of our global conversation and harvests the t

3、hought leadership of a wide range of senior professionals across our firm. This is not a research report and does not constitute advice on investments or a solicitations to buy or sell any financial instruments. For more information on Citi GPS, please visit our website at Citi GPS: Global Perspecti

4、ves people who are sick do not go much to the theater or to church. But sick people go to work.” The most dangerous place, he explained, was the subway, but not much could be done there, besides trying to distribute the crowds and making sure there was ventilation in the cars.1 This time around, pub

5、lic transportation should have been less of a concern. Many jobs can be done remotely thanks to advances in digital technology. When U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson tested positive for COVID-19 and self-isolated, he made clear that he could still continue to work “thanks to the wizard of modern te

6、chnology.” More broadly, rapid penetration of broadband in the home, a new generation of powerful laptops, cheaper and better IP telephony, more robust VPN software, online collaboration tools like Slack and Google Docs, and videoconferencing tools like Zoom, have powered the rise of telecommuting.

7、And there are new technologies on the horizon. In the not too distance future, with the adoption of 5G, both telepresence and telerobotics will become increasingly good substitutes for face-to-face interactions. Yet despite the ability of many citizens to work from home in the current pandemic, tran

8、sportation systems have again come under pressure. In the U.K., on Tuesday March 24th, the day after Boris Johnson announced a lockdown to curb the spread of the coronavirus, pictures emerged showing workers in London crowding into Tube carriages, despite warnings that people should keep two meters

9、(6ft) away from each other. As the death rate rose by 87 in just that one day, Matt Hancock, Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, urged people to “Only go to your job if you cannot work from home.”2 However, there is no real consensus on which jobs those are. Whats missing is a concept of

10、which jobs are essential, and which can or cannot be done remotely. In this report, we aim to bridge that gap. Examining 483 occupations, we find that 113 of these can be performed remotely. These occupations also employ the bulk of the U.S. workforce: 52% of workers are employed in occupations that

11、 could be performed at distance in a time of crisis (Chapter 5). Needless to say, the same occupations can also be done remotely in the U.K. and in other advanced economies. 1 Epidemic Lessons Against Next Time, The New York Times, Nov 17, 1918. 2 https:/www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52022417 Carl Benedikt

12、Frey Oxford Martin Citi Fellow another the office usually stands empty all night. All this may strike our grandchildren as bizarre.”5 The big difference this time around is there is not just a technological pull towards telecommuting, but also an economic and political push. In the U.S., the Trump A

13、dministration announced it will expand Medicare telehealth coverage, allowing its beneficiaries to gain access to a wider range of healthcare services without having to travel to a healthcare facility. “The Trump Administration is taking swift and bold action to give patients greater access to care

14、through telehealth during the COVID- 19 outbreak,” said Administrator Seema Verma. 4 Larcom, S., Rauch, F., re-shoring into developed economies; pre-mature industrialization in emerging economies; the growth of e-commerce, digital money and digital healthcare; and job opportunities in technology, he

15、althcare, education, and green infrastructure. In this report however our focus is the potential impact of technology on remote working and learning. In addition to remote working, digital technologies will enable a secular shift to remote learning. We explore the potential for significant new disru

16、ptions within the education sector in Chapter 6. “The rush to online learning happened almost overnight”, noted 2U Inc. recently who believe “when done right, as our recent Gallop study proves, online can be as good, or even better, than the campus.” Edtech can improve educations stagnant productivi

17、ty, personalize outcomes, and lower cost. Like back-up solutions for corporate offices, educational institutions now have to have an effective plan B, such as flipped classrooms, digital courseware, or blended learning solutions. These are not bleeding-edge solutions while greater investment will ai

18、d new innovation, the pandemic is actually forcing mass adoption of existing technologies. Digital technologies are becoming increasingly good substitute for face-to-face interactions Cities continue to provide social networks that constitute huts for innovation and consumption Although COVID-19 lik

19、ely accelerated the move to remote work, it may also increase inequality Robert Garlick Head of Citi Research, EMEA June 2020 Citi GPS:Citi GPS: Global Perspectives Baldwin, R. (2019). The Globotics Upheaval: Globalization, Robotics, and the Future of Work. Oxford University Press. 16 Friedman, T. L

20、. (2005). The World is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century. Macmillan. 17 Leamer, E. E. (2007). A Flat World, a Level Playing Field, a Small World After all, or None of the Above? A review of Thomas L Friedmans The World is Flat. Journal of Economic Literature, 45(1), 83-126. This seco

21、nd unbundling redrew the international boundaries of knowledge In 2004, Thomas Friedman argued that location was becoming irrelevant Others argued innovation and education created relationship-based activities so location was relevant Citi GPS:Citi GPS: Global Perspectives they leave no paper trail

22、by which they may be measured and tracked.”47 However, they do actually leave some trails. Knowledge flows are visible in patent data, and more specifically in patent citations, which link the invention to previous patented inventions. Economists have shown that patents are more likely to cite previ

23、ous patents that are geographically proximate, providing evidence that ideas are often filtered down within cities.48 In principle, everyone could just read the patent online, but they seem more likely to know about local inventions, suggesting that in-person interactions are important to innovation

24、. A number of studies have since provided additional compelling evidence in favor of this view. One study, for example, looked at the effects of the abrupt cancellation of the 2012 American Political Science Association annual meeting due to Hurricane Isaac. This made it possible to compare the exte

25、nt of new collaboration among those scheduled but unable to attend relative to those who attended the conference in previous years as well as political science conventions that werent cancelled the same year. Estimating the effect of cancellation on new collaboration, they find that cancelling the c

26、onference reduced the probability potential attendees collaborate by 16%. And the strongest effect was among potential collaborators who didnt live in the same place.49 45 Grdlund, T (1993), Misslyckandets genier, Norstedts, Stockholm. 46 Glaeser, E. L., Forman, C. C., (2) Supplemental Services in E

27、merging Markets; (3) Higher Education Infrastructure in China; (4) University Services; (5) English Language Learning in China; (6) Edtech; and (7) Professional Training. We believe current events reinforce the importance of some of these themes including University Services and Edtech. Figure 28. P

28、ercent of U.S. Higher Education Using Full Online Delivery of Education During COVID-19 Figure 29. Key Challenges Associated With Moving to an Online Setting for Higher Education Source: Philonedtech, Listedtech, bryanalexander.org, Ithaka S+R, Entangled Solutions Source: Inside Higher Ed; Survey of

29、 c.170 US University administrators A representative sample of 1,000 U.S. universities suggests all institutions have transferred their operations to an exclusively online setting (Figure 28). Many K-12 schools are also engaging with students online in some capacity for some duration. However, most

30、of these university online engagements are stop gap measures designed to tide over the pandemic for a few months. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2-Mar-20 4-Mar-20 6-Mar-20 8-Mar-20 10-Mar-20 12-Mar-20 14-Mar-20 16-Mar-20 18-Mar-20 20-Mar-20 22-Mar-20 24-Mar-20 26-Mar-20 28-Mar-20 30-Mar

31、-20 1-Apr-20 3-Apr-20 5-Apr-20 7-Apr-20 9-Apr-20 11-Apr-20 13-Apr-20 Regular DeliverySchool Closed/ Spring BreakFully Online 0%20%40%60%80% Maintaining student engagement Training faculty less faimiliar with digital delivery Ensuring student access Ensuring academic standards remain high Incorporati

32、ng feedback to improve the learning experience Ensuring technology tools (2) many people believe vocational training is now superior to academic qualifications; and (3) there is plenty of appetite for upskilling opportunities. Figure 35. How important to you is on the job training and professional d

33、evelopment when considering employers? Figure 36. Do you think vocational training is becoming more or less important relative to academic qualifications? Figure 37. If the opportunity arose, would you participate in further professional training/learning adaptive learning development platforms; pee

34、r-to-peer video content; and asynchronous/cohort based platforms such as Nomadic. 2. Collaboration tools and practices: I think well see increased use of collaboration tools both synchronous and asynchronous. The fatigue associated with long duration video events will drive greater adoption of effic

35、ient, off meeting collaboration. For example, collaboration tools such as Slack, Yammer and MS Collaborate can be used to prepare for meetings, rendering the actual video time for discussion and debate versus the conveyance of information. I also view learning experience platforms such as Degreed an

36、d Edcast as essential collaboration tools given they enable communities of practice to spring up around specific areas of interest. 3. Meeting management: Better meeting constructs, a more thoughtful approach to attendee composition, and meeting pre-work will become the norm. 4. Inclusion will be a

37、greater challenge: Soliciting and truly hearing and acting on diverse opinions can be difficult in proximate environments you have to really work at it from a distance. We see COVID-19 as pushing necessity as the mother of adoption for edtech Citi GPS:Citi GPS: Global Perspectives fixing/updating th

38、eir products; receiving data and processing information etc. Private networks are the support pillars of an increasingly mobile workforce Citi GPS:Citi GPS: Global Perspectives nor will everyone want to be in a specialized care facility. The solution could be devices that feed an individuals health

39、data back to a center, which can monitor and intervene where necessary. Monitoring ensures better prevention in general. But especially during a crisis like the one caused by COVID-19, e-health can ensure more cases are being monitored and in the future perhaps encourage more regular and extensive t

40、esting. More people may also be checked without putting other people at risk (not just doctors that do the monitoring but also infections caused by patients having to travel to health centers). Big Data and Monitoring: Whether its the data collected from e-health devices themselves or information ab

41、out potential patients (e.g., people who have traveled or who have been in proximity with individuals who have contracted a virus), networks can gather very accurate information not just about the whereabouts of individuals but also the patterns of spread of a virus. Both gathering and analyzing dat

42、a efficiently are crucial to making the right decisions and forming plans of action (macro) as well as implementing plans on the ground (micro). Artificial intelligence (AI) has been progressing for years initially being used to help us sort preferences and predict when we want to rent a movie but n

43、ow moving to much more advanced services such as our smartphones and other devices becoming better at predicting our behavior, our preferences and our needs. In many ways we may just be at the start of what AI can offer. Even today, there are examples of how AI can be used. The city of Hangzhou in C

44、hina was one of the first to use big data for the prevention and control of COVID-19. Information was used to establish which businesses should be prioritized as the city reopened. Every individual was provided with a code which determined the freedom of their movement. Green to move freely, yellow

45、for 7- day self-quarantine and red codes for 14 day self-quarantine; with the codes changing color accordingly. Individuals were also asked to monitor and report their temperatures and update their daily profiles (again linked to e-health). AI is and will be capable to do a lot more than that in the

46、 future. Strategic Importance As individuals, businesses, and health authorities rely more on networks to function, networks are increasingly becoming the key infrastructure to support development. With networks, there are two main parameters that matter: performance (capabilities) and security/priv

47、acy. Two takeaways from the pandemic are the need to deliver health services remotely and to analyze information more efficiently Performance and security/privacy are the two main parameters that matter for networks Citi GPS:Citi GPS: Global Perspectives Optical character recognition (OCR), which en

48、able ingestion of “less- structured” documents; Embedded real-time co-authoring and commenting; and Portfolio display for creative professionals. In the medium-term, it is possible that if a horizontal solution can have enough value propositions, it can become a sort of “virtual file service” that s

49、its on top of other storage, even the embedded variety. The youngest area within the deliverable-centric productivity/collaboration arena is around collaborative work management (CWM). These products are an evolution of the project management tools of yesterday, although they go well beyond the prior target of trained project managers, bringing capabilities to a broader set of users. We see the SaaS/mobile/cloud drivers take their utility to a new level and that is why we see a renaissance in that mar