2020年第二季度鋼鐵市場報告 - 經濟合作與發展組織（英文版）（50頁）.pdf

《2020年第二季度鋼鐵市場報告 - 經濟合作與發展組織（英文版）（50頁）.pdf》由會員分享，可在線閱讀，更多相關《2020年第二季度鋼鐵市場報告 - 經濟合作與發展組織（英文版）（50頁）.pdf（50頁珍藏版）》請在三個皮匠報告上搜索。

1、 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development DSTI/SC(2020)1/FINAL Unclassified English - Or. English 8 June 2020 DIRECTORATE FOR SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION STEEL COMMITTEE Steel Market developments: Q2 2020 This document is only available in PDF format. Contact: Fabien MERCIER, Fa

2、bien.MERCIERoecd.org, +33 1 45 24 9384; Tomohiro Hijikata, Tomohiro.Hijikataoecd.org; +33 1 45 24 1483; Valentina Burrai, Valentina.Burraioecd.org +33 1 85 55 60 22. JT03462700 OFDE This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over

3、 any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. 2 DSTI/SC(2020)1/FINAL STEEL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Q2 2020 Unclassified 2 | STEEL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Q2 2020 This paper was authored by Fabien Mercier, Tomohiro Hijikata and

4、Valentina Burrai from the OECD Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation (STI). It was approved and declassified by written procedure by the OECD Steel Committee on 22 May 2020 and prepared for publication by the OECD Secretariat. This document, as well as any data and any map included here

5、in, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. OECD 2020 You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD

6、publications, databases and multimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgment of OECD as source and copyright owner is given. All requests for commercial use and translation rights should be submitted to rightsoecd

7、.org. STEEL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Q2 2020 | | 3 Table of contents Recent market developments in the global steel industry 5 1. Summary 6 2. OECD Economic outlook 8 3. Steel consumption 11 3.1. Americas 11 3.2. Africa and the Middle East 12 3.3. Asia and Oceania 12 3.4. Europe and CIS economies 13 4. S

8、teel production 15 4.1. Americas 15 4.2. Africa and the Middle East 15 4.3. Asia and Oceania 16 4.4. Europe and CIS economies 16 5. World steel trade 17 6. Steel and raw material prices 19 6.1. Steel prices 19 6.2. Steel raw material prices 21 7. The global steelmaking capacity situation 24 8. The s

9、teel market outlook 26 8.1. The global steel market outlook 26 8.2. Regional steel market outlook 26 References 36 Endnotes 49 Tables Table 1. OECD Economic Projections, November 2019 10 Table 2. World crude steel production developments in 2019 15 Table 3. Steel trade developments across major stee

10、l-producing economies 18 4 | STEEL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Q2 2020 Figures Figure 1. Consumption of hot-rolled steel products, major economies (aggregate) 11 Figure 2. Aggregate flat and rebar steel price averages (latest 1 February 2020) 19 Figure 3. Steel price for flat products, by region (latest 1 F

11、ebruary 2020) 20 Figure 4. Steel price for rebar products, by region (latest 1 February 2020) 20 Figure 5. Steel futures prices (as of mid February 2020) 21 Figure 6. Prices for key steel-making raw materials 22 Figure 7. The upward trend in Chinese scrap prices has recently stabilised 23 Figure 8.

12、Margin between steel and raw material prices 23 Figure 9. Evolution of crude steelmaking capacity in OECD/EU economies and non OECD/EU economies 24 Figure 10. Global crude steelmaking capacity and crude steel production 25 Figure 11. Auto sales have declined sharply in China 30 Boxes Box 1. The nega

13、tive impact of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in China 31 STEEL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Q2 2020 | | 5 Recent market developments in the global steel industry This document is part of a regular monitoring exercise to provide the Steel Committee with timely information on steel market developments dur

14、ing the year 2019. It provides an update on recent developments in steel markets, based on the latest information available at the time of writing (as of mid-February 2020). Given that the data for regional aggregates presented in the tables throughout this paper extend until the end of 2019, the Un

15、ited Kingdom has been included under any aggregates calculated for the European Union. In future reports, the United Kingdom will no longer be included in the EU aggregate. Because this paper was prepared before Covid-19 became a global pandemic, it includes only a very brief discussion of some of t

16、he initial effects of the virus on steel markets observed in early 2020. The Q4 2020 edition of the Steel Market Developments paper will include more complete analysis of Covid-19 and its impacts on global steel markets. 6 | STEEL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Q2 2020 1. Summary Steel market fundamentals have

17、 weakened considerably in 2019. Steel production growth has turned negative in all regions, with the exception of Asia and the Middle East. Weakening global economic activity, uncertain prospects for steel demand growth, and the upturn in new capacity investments in some regions continue to cloud th

18、e outlook for the global steel market and excess capacity. This document provides an overview of recent steel market developmentsincluding demand, supply, and pricesand the outlook by region based on information available until February 2020. Due to the rapidly evolving impacts of the Covid-19 pande

19、mic on steel markets, the outlook has deteriorated significantly since the time of writing. The next edition of this report will include more complete analysis of Covid-19 and its impacts on global steel markets. To summarise, the following key developments are discussed in this report. The economic

20、 situation: In its November 2019 Economic Outlook, the OECD revised its world GDP forecasts downwards, lowering them from 3.2% to 2.9% for the year 2020, and from 3.4% to 3% in 2021. Downside risks to GDP growth include a further escalation of trade and cross-border investment policy restrictions, t

21、he effects of Brexit, the potential for a sharp slowdown in China, and financial vulnerabilities stemming from slowing economic growth and high corporate indebtedness of deteriorating credit quality. Steel consumption: The October 2019 forecasts of the World Steel Association pointed to global steel

22、 consumption growth of 3.9% in 2019, down from 4.6% in 2018. The strongest growth was expected for China (7.8% growth rate), but this included the statistical effects of the closure of induction furnaces, which were not accounted for in official figures. Taking these effects into account, China was

23、forecast to experience real demand growth of 4% in 2019, while global growth in steel demand was expected to slow to 2% in 2019 from 2.2% in 2018. India, Russia and economies in Southeast Asia were also projected to experience solid steel demand growth in 2019. Steel production: All regions, with th

24、e exception of Asia and the Middle East, saw declining steel production in 2019. The strongest declines were experienced in the region denoted as Other Europe (-8.5%), South America (-8.4%), Africa (-6.9%), and the European Union (-5%). Declines were moderate in North America (-0.8%) and in the Comm

25、onwealth of Independent States (CIS) at -0.6%, whereas the Middle East and Asia experienced strong growth (20.5% and 5.3%, respectively). World steel trade: Steel exports continued to decline for most regions during the first nine months of 2019. Steel export decreases (in y-o-y terms) were mainly o

26、bserved in Russia (-11.7%), China (-5.2%), and Japan (-7.7%) during this period. On the other hand, steel export activity in India (+5.6%), Turkey (+9.2%) and Brazil (+6.3%) remained strong during these nine months. Steel and raw material prices: Steel prices continued to decline during 2019, with w

27、orld average flat and rebar prices at the end of the year standing at levels 13% and 9% below their levels one year earlier, respectively. Steelmaking raw material prices followed divergent trajectories in 2019, with prices of scrap and coking coal having declined, while iron ore prices remained com

28、paratively stable. European scrap export prices decreased by 17% on average during 2019, and in February 2020 stood 20% below their level one year earlier. Coking coal prices dropped by STEEL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Q2 2020 | | 7 15% in 2019, on average, and further declines have brought prices down in

29、February 2020 to levels 42% lower than a year earlier. Iron ore prices, on the other hand, increased by 32% in 2019, but were down slightly in February 2020 from a year ago. Capacity: New investments in steelmaking capacity continue to take place in many regions. However, the gap between capacity an

30、d production narrowed slightly to 513.9 million metric tonnes (mmt) in 2019, from a level of 520.0 mmt in 2018, supported by the 3.4% increase in global steel production last year. Steel demand outlook: Forecasts by the World Steel Association (worldsteel) released in October 2019 projected slow gro

31、wth in global steel demand in 2020. Global growth was projected to slow to 1.7%, although some emerging and developing economies were expected to post more robust steel demand growth. Chinese steel demand was forecast to slow appreciably to only 1% in 2020. 8 | STEEL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Q2 2020 2. O

32、ECD Economic outlook Global growth prospects have continued deteriorating amidst persistent policy uncertainty and weak trade and investment flows. In its November 2019 Economic Outlook, the OECD revised its world GDP growth forecasts downwards, lowering them from 3.2% to 2.9% for the year 2020, and

33、 from 3.4% to 3% in 2021.1 These are the weakest growth rates seen since the global financial crisis. Risks to the outlook include a further escalation of trade and cross- border investment policy restrictions, continued uncertainty about the effects of Brexit, risks of a sharper slowdown in China,

34、and financial vulnerabilities stemming from slowing economic growth and high corporate indebtedness of deteriorating credit quality. Growth prospects around the world are being revised downward continuously, following the latest developments of the Covid-19 pandemic and the impact of containment mea

35、sures on economic activity. Table 1 below presents the November 2019 Economic Outlook OECD GDP growth forecasts, available at the time of the writing of this paper. Newer updates of the OECD forecasts that take into account the evolving impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on growth worldwide will be pro

36、vided on the OECD website2 Hence, the growth prospects mentioned in this section should be understood as of a longer-term nature, and interpreted in conjunction with the short- to medium-term effects of the rapid evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic. Growth prospects will be reassessed in the future g

37、iven the economic impact of Covid-19. In many countries, monetary and fiscal policy stances have remained largely accommodating. Central banks that had previously favoured a normalisation of their balance sheets have reversed course, albeit with moderate apparent impact on real growth. Factors cited

38、 in the Economic Outlook, such as an increase in trade restrictions and the erosion of the rules-based global trading system, coupled with rising government support across a range of sectors, is inducing disruptions in supply chains and a reallocation of economic activities across countries. These f

39、actors are exerting a downward pressure on current demand by reducing incentives to invest and are undermining medium-term growth prospects. Manufacturing activity worldwide has continued to decelerate significantly. Data on global industrial production show a sharp slowdown in the growth rate in re

40、cent months, and the Markit index for new export orders, which is a forward-looking component of the overall Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), suggests a contraction in global manufacturing activity. Unemployment rates across most OECD economies are still at their lowest levels in several decades, an

41、d real wage growth is sluggish. In the euro area, economic growth is projected to remain subdued, with little prospects of a strong recovery over the coming two years. Weak growth in external demand, global trade tensions and policy uncertainty will limit exports and business investment. Real GDP is

42、 expected to grow by 1.1% in 2020 and 1.2% in 2021. Monetary policy in the euro zone has remained very accommodating, with the introduction of a two-tier system for reserve remuneration3 and more attractive conditions for longer-term refinancing operations. In spite of these measures, investment act

43、ivity has decelerated. Manufacturing has been hit hardest by the slowdown, but business confidence in the service sector has also shown signs of faltering. In the United States, the current economic expansion has become the longest on record. Real GDP growth, although now slowing, is still expected

44、to be around 2.0% in both 2020 and 2021. Trade tensions as well as an overall slowing global economy are partly responsible for the slowdown in US growth. Moreover, heightened policy uncertainty about international trade continues to weigh on activity and investment decisions. Exporters have been hi

45、t by STEEL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Q2 2020 | | 9 counter measures abroad, and consumers are facing higher prices due to the tariff increases, which should help the Federal Reserve achieve its newly defined “symmetrical” 2% inflation target. The US labour market has remained relatively strong, with unemp

46、loyment at its lowest point in decades, particularly among the older generations. Risks to financial stability stem from a combination of historically high asset valuations, a large amount of non- financial corporate debt of decreasing credit quality, and the relative ease to obtain credit due to hi

47、storically low interest rates. In Japan, economic growth is projected to be 0.6% in 2020 and 0.7% in 2021. Although exports have remained flat since mid-2018, wage income has increased at a rate of 1.3% annually in real terms since mid-2018 and has been supporting domestic business investment and ho

48、usehold consumption. The upward pressure on wages is the result of a high employment rate and an ageing population that is dampening labour supply. The government launched a plan to accept up to 345 150 foreign workers between 2019 and 2024 in sectors facing severe labour shortages, such as construc

49、tion, accommodation and food services, and healthcare. The government is also considering regulatory reforms to promote new services such as financial technologies, and further corporate governance reforms. The main risk to the Japanese economic outlook remains the countrys fiscal sustainability, as the government debt-to-GDP ratio stands at a record high level of 224% of GDP. In the Peoples Republic of China (hereafter “China”