2020年5G無線網絡部署的經濟分析報告：對美國和當地經濟的影響 - ACT（英文版）（60頁）.pdf

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1、AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF 5G WIRELESS DEPLOYMENT: IMPACT ON THE U.S. AND LOCAL ECONOMIES James E. Prieger Professor School of Public Policy Pepperdine University Malibu, California james.priegerpepperdine.edu February 2020 About this reportAbout this report This report was commissioned by Verizon. All

2、 opinions herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Verizon or ACT or any of the institutions with which they are affiliated. James E. Prieger is an economist and professor of public policy at Pepperdine University. He specializes in regulatory economics, industri

3、al organization, and applied econometrics. Previously, he was an assistant professor of economics at the University of California, Davis. Prieger spent a year as Senior Economist at the Federal Communications Commissions Office of Strategic Plans and Policy. He received his Bachelor of Arts degree f

4、rom Yale University and his PhD from the University of California, Berkeley. An economic analysis of 5G wireless deployment: Impact on the U.S. and local economies I. Executive summary The U.S. has never been a more connected nation, and 5G is the next generation of wireless network technology.1 5G

5、offers higher transmission rates, more reliable connectivity, and lower latency, allowing businesses and consumers to perform existing and entirely new tasks better and cheaper. This report examines the potential of 5G as a general-purpose technology to unleash improvements in economic productivity,

6、 employment, and consumer value. 5G will be an important driver of economic growth in the nation. Investment to create 5G networks contributes directly to GDP, and $225 billion in capital expenditure will be needed over the next seven years or so to fully deploy 5G. However, this direct effect on GD

7、P is only a small part of the total economic effects of broadband in general and 5G in particular. 5G will affect the labor market through direct and indirect means. The broadest impact on the labor market comes from new employment opportunities through the way 5G will enable new applications, servi

8、ces, ways of doing business, and general growth of businesses. The additional labor required to build out the network to deploy 5G will create the most immediate demand for new jobs. The analysis here finds that 8.5 million jobs will be created over 2019-2025 compared to a counterfactual 4G-only wor

9、ld, with an average of 1.2 million jobs each year. These workers will earn more than $560 billion during that time, create $1.7 trillion in additional output, and add over $900 billion to U.S. GDP. The analysis here finds that 8.5 million jobs will be created over 2019-2025 compared to a counterfact

10、ual 4G-only world, with an average of 1.2 million jobs each year. These workers will earn more than $560 billion during that time, create $1.7 trillion in additional output, and add over $900 billion to U.S. GDP. Businesses and consumers will also benefit from 5G networks. The Internet of Things (Io

11、T) and 5G will be a major source of productivity improvements and competitive advantage for businesses. The 5G ecosystem will also create much value for consumers, who can look forward to peak mobile broadband transmission speeds of about 10 to 20 times faster than 4G LTE. The true promise of 5G and

12、 IoT for consumers lies in doing completely new things using mobile and fixed wireless and IoT technology devices, such as healthcare devices, autonomous vehicles and traffic management systems, the smart grid for revolutionizing energy management, smart home technology, and wearable devices. Next-g

13、eneration wireless networks hold special promise for economic development in rural and economically lagging areas by expanding labor and output markets beyond isolated geographical areas, filling gaps in existing wired and wireless broadband coverage, and granting access to healthcare, educational,

14、and other expertise in urban or more advantaged areas. Case studies on four cities (Los Angeles, New York, Pittsburgh, and Roanoke) show that even the direct economic impacts from deploying the 5G network are large. Employment created by network construction, complementary CAPEX in private industry,

15、 and consumer spending on 5G-enabled devices and 5G service are expected to create about 250,000 jobs in Los Angeles, up to about 120,000 jobs in New York City, about 22,000 jobs in Pittsburgh, and about 2,700 jobs in Roanoke. These estimates, along with the forecasted national economic impacts, are

16、 supported with careful economic modeling based on established methods for regional economic analysis. Employment created by network construction, complementary CAPEX in private industry, and consumer spending on 5G-enabled devices and 5G service are expected to create about 250,000 jobs in Los Ange

17、les, up to about 120,000 jobs in New York City, about 22,000 jobs in Pittsburgh, and about 2,700 jobs in Roanoke. II. Introduction In an increasingly mobile and wireless world, 5G is the next generation of wireless network technology. The key advantages of 5G are higher transmission rates, more reli

18、able connectivity, and lower latency (the time it takes for a source to send a packet of data to a receiver). These capabilities allow businesses and consumers to perform existing tasks better and cheaper, but more importantlyallow entirely new types of productive activity to take place. This report

19、 examines the potential of 5G to unleash improvements in economic productivity, employment, and consumer value. Much of the great promise of 5G for economic growth stems from its role as a general-purpose technology (GPT). A GPT is pervasive, has high potential for technical improvements, is greatly

20、 useful to businesses, and can be employed to increase the productivity of R when those are assumed to be higher than the job creation figures rise accordingly. For example, IHS Markit (2017) estimates that investment of $1.2 trillion of R Holt and Jamison, 2009).13 The employment impacts of broadba

21、nd are not limited to the early generations of wired and wireless technology. 5G will be fast fast enough to challenge and replace wired broadband in some areas. Econometric studies that specifically examine very high-speed broadband (often defined in the literature as a download transmission rate o

22、f at least 1 Gbps) find that its availability is positively related to county-level employment in the U.S. (Bai, 2017; Lobo et al., 2019) and negatively related to the unemployment rate in France (Hasbi, 2017). The latter study is particularly notable for the large effect found14 and its numerous te

23、chniques used to verify the causality of the association. Scholars have also researched the industry-specific impact of broadband and found that the job creation effect exists mainly in technology-concentrated industries (Kolko, 2012) and high-end service industries such as finance and insurance, ed

24、ucation services and health care services (Crandall et al., 2007). These industries, of course, depend on a highly skilled workforce. The important connection between broadband and high-skilled labor is highlighted by the econometric study of Atasoy (2013), who found that broadband availability incr

25、eases employment and wages more in areas with more skilled workers and in industries and occupations that require highly skilled and educated workers. Similar results along these lines in a study of firm-level data from Norway showed that broadband availability and adoption complements the abilities

26、 of high-skill workers, increasing their productivity, wages, and employment (Akerman et al., 2015). Thus it is important that IoT can improve the learning process in education, for example by facilitating interaction between physical and virtual objects and students in the learning environment in t

27、he context of virtual academic communities (Marquez et al., 2016). Such communities will broaden educational opportunities, particularly in rural and otherwise isolated areas, as will the greater accessibility of education and effectiveness of distance learning enabled by 5G. Eventually, future IoT

28、learning models will be virtual interactive environments that are “learner-centric, skill- centric, on-demand and personalized. improving student development in the areas of critical- thinking and collaborative learning” (Mirzamany et al., 2016).15 Thus the possibility of a virtuous cycle, whereby w

29、orkers gain education and skills facilitated by 5G and IoT, and then have increased employment due to the impact of broadband in the economy. In closely related work to the employment studies, Hasbi (2017), Mack (2014), McCoy et al. (2018) show that broadband spurs local business creation, which alm

30、ost by definition creates new employment (now or in the future). Indeed, Falck (2017) concludes that the “employment effects of broadband introduction likely arise from job creation in newly founded establishments.” Mack and Rey (2014) show that broadband availability is positively linked to the num

31、ber of knowledge intensive businesses in particular.16 Importantly, their results imply that broadband can increase the numbers of such businesses not only in areas with concentrations of knowledge intensive firms, but also areas without, making broadband infrastructure particularly important for de

32、velopment. The positive effects of broadband on the labor market are not limited to reducing unemployment. Economists have drawn attention to the large number of Americans who dropped out of the labor force after the last recession; such former workers do not appear in official unemployment statisti

33、cs.17 Broadband at home can draw people into the labor force through telework and saving time in home production. For example, Dettling (2017) found that high-speed internet use in the home leads to a 4.1 percentage point increase in labor force participation for married women. As discussed above, 5

34、G and IoT will greatly enhance the prospects for remote employment and virtual workplaces. What about the fear that as businesses use ever more ICT such as 5G, jobs are put at risk as “machines replace people”? Changes in the structure of the economy due to technological progress are at least as old

35、 as the Industrial Revolution and require careful attention to the education, flexibility, and continued reskilling of the workforce. However, the evidence above shows that in the case of broadband ICT the labor market impacts appear to be positive on net. Furthermore, the available research specifi

36、c to wireless broadband internet access does not support that worry. In a cross-country econometric study of how short-run labor demand is affected by various forms of ICT used by businesses, Biagi and Falk (2017) found no evidence that mobile broadband usage by employees destroys jobs. 2. Impact of

37、 network construction on employment Deploying the infrastructure necessary for the 5G network will require much labor. CTIA (2018), the trade association for Americas wireless industry, estimates that in 2018 the U.S. had only 86,000 small cell sites, out of the estimated 800,000 expected to be buil

38、t by 2026 if regulatory hurdles do not disrupt the necessary investment. Of that total, about 300,000 will need to be built by 2022 (Safer et al., 2018a). Building that many new network sites and the infrastructure needed to serve them will create many jobs. Some studies use methodology akin to the

39、present analysis to estimate the jobs impact of 5G infrastructure deployment. The report by Accenture (Al Amine et al., 2017) estimates that building the 5G network will create 50,000 new construction jobs in the U.S. each year to install new wireless infrastructure over a seven-year period. Includi

40、ng the industries supporting and supplying the construction effort, total direct employment creation rises to 120,000 jobs per year. Including all areas of wireless investment in 5G networks, the report arrives at a total of about 429,000 jobs each year.18 Accentures estimate of construction jobs is

41、 similar to the estimates computed here and discussed in section IV.B.1 below.19 The estimates presented there, however, are larger even than Accentures total jobs figure because the present estimates include employment from other parts of the 5G ecosystem. Such estimates are in line with econometri

42、c estimates of existing forms of broadband; Hasbi (2017) found that when a very high-speed broadband network has been deployed in a municipality, it created (or attracted) new construction firms, and therefore construction jobs. In particular, fiber networks increase the number of construction compa

43、nies by 4.7% due to the deployment, installation, and maintenance needs of the networks. B. Improved productivity and competitive advantages for businesses IoT and 5G will be a major source of productivity improvements and competitive advantage for businesses, first through creating operational effi

44、ciencies and next through new business models and other forms of innovation in processes and products (KW, 2016). Productivity is enhanced by lowering the transaction costs involved in monitoring, measuring, and managing business activities. IoT sensors with remote monitoring capabilities lower such

45、 costs of controlling inputs and outputs.20 Of course, IoT and 5G are not just about devices; connected devices and the enhanced communications experience offered by 5G will make possible increased engagement of employees. The superior indoor and outdoor mobile broadband experience will make many wo

46、rkers more productive. 5G will further the move toward virtual and remote teamwork with enterprises by enabling streaming of ultra-high definition video and telepresence, augmented and virtual reality (smart glasses), and tactile internet (IHS, 2017).21 Smart glasses can improve productivity, for ex

47、ample, by providing remote support from centralized specialists to workers in the field. IoT-based improvement in the management of mobile devices, inventory and assets, safety and security, and workers and their time can boost productivity as well (NET, 2017). Past experience with previous broadban

48、d, communications, and mobile technologies shows that we can expect 5G to usher new improvements in the productivity of labor. Some studies have considered the labor productivity impacts of broadband in general, including wired and wireless, fixed and mobile. Some studies use data from individual fi

49、rms. For example, Akerman et al. (2015) show that broadband availability and adoption at the firm level increases the productivity of highly skilled labor. Their econometric estimations indicate that increasing broadband availability by 10 percent raises a firms output by 0.4 percent on average (holding other productive inputs constant). The average effects can mask a large amount of heterogeneity across industries and countries, of course. However, a study of 400,000 observations on firms in European countries showed that in a majorit