2020年能源市場狀況報告 - 澳大利亞能源監管局（英文版）（281頁）.pdf

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1、STATE OF THE ENERGY MARKET 2020 Australian Energy Regulator Level 17, 2 Lonsdale Street, Melbourne, Victoria 3000 Email: AERInquiryaer.gov.au Website: www.aer.gov.au ISBN 978 1 920702 53 3 First published by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission 2020 Commonwealth of Australia 2020 This

2、work is copyright. Apart from any use permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced without prior written permission from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission. Requests and inquiries concerning reproduction and rights should be addressed to the Director, Content and

3、 Digital Services, Australian Competition, Consumer Commission, GPO Box 3131, Canberra ACT 2601 or publishing.unitaccc.gov.au. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was prepared by the Australian Energy Regulator. The AER gratefully acknowledges the following corporations and government agencies that contrib

4、uted to this report: ASX Energy, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Australian Energy Market Commission, the Australian Energy Market Operator, the Australian Financial Markets Association, Bloomberg, the Clean Energy Regulator, CSIRO, Energy Consumers Australia, EnergyQuest, the Energy Securi

5、ty Board, KPMG, IRENA, Global-Roam and Greenview Strategic Consulting. The AER also acknowledges Teslarati and Woodside for supplying photographic images. IMPORTANT NOTICE The information in this publication is for general guidance only. It does not constitute legal or other professional advice, and

6、 should not be relied on as a statement of the law in any jurisdiction. Because it is intended only as a general guide, it may contain generalisations. You should obtain professional advice if you have any specific concern. The ACCC has made every reasonable effort to provide current and accurate in

7、formation, but it does not make any guarantees regarding the accuracy, currency or completeness of that information. Editor: Composed, Melbourne Designer: Inspire Design, Melbourne Cover image by Tarnero (Shutterstock) STATE OF THE ENERGY MARKET 2020 Much is written about the energy transition and,

8、indeed, for the first time we have dedicated a chapter to it in State of the Energy Market 2020. At the same time, with so many of us home due to COVID-19 and using more power, its an important reminder that our focus must always remain on the interests of consumers. All of our work over the past ye

9、ar has been underpinned by exceptional market and consumer insight, of which there are few better examples than the AERs signature publication, State of the energy market. Our market and regulatory frameworks exist to serve the long term interests of consumers, but meeting their diverse needs is cha

10、llenging. There are still many consumers who may not want to, or simply cannot, effectively engage in what is a complicated market. The Australian Government introduced the Default Market Offer as a cap on the price that electricity retailers can charge consumers on standing offer contracts. The AER

11、 sets price caps in south east Queensland, NSW and South Australia. From July 2019 to January 2020, standing offer prices for residential consumers fell by 1113 per cent in NSW, 12 per cent in South Australia, and 10 per cent in south east Queensland. The AER recently commissioned a study from the C

12、onsumer Policy Research Centre on vulnerability. Vulnerability is multi-faceted, and all consumers can move in and out of vulnerability at different points, as demonstrated by COVID-19. Our Statement of Expectations released in the wake of COVID-19 extended payment plans to all residential and small

13、 business customers in financial stress and prevented their disconnection. Pleasingly, both networks and retailers quickly adopted these expectations. As reflected in Justice Haynes commentary in the Royal Commission into banking and financial services, it is no longer enough for businesses to do th

14、e bare minimum to comply with the strict letter of the law. The AER actively monitors and reports on energy market participants, and takes action to ensure compliance with the law and rules. Since 1 July 2019, the AER has issued 25 infringement notices, accepted three enforceable undertakings, comme

15、nced eight cases in the Federal Court, and conducted 10 retail audits. This is almost twice as many compliance and enforcement actions as the AER has initiated before. This year the AER will complete its biennial review of the performance of the wholesale electricity market. Wholesale electricity pr

16、ices have been the largest contributor to retail price rises over the past few years. This review will analyse longer term trends in wholesale prices and generator costs, and explore a number of emerging market trends. PREFACE Fortunately, stubbornly high wholesale electricity prices have finally be

17、gun to fall as large volumes of renewable energy enter the market and fuel prices fall. This should bring some relief to consumers in coming years. The entry of large volumes of renewable energy means we need a stronger grid to support a least cost energy system. The AER has approved two new electri

18、city transmission projects this year (Queensland NSW, and NSW South Australia) in record time to ensure we can meet the future needs of consumers. Those active and engaged consumers among us long for smart homes and appliances that can be used to participate in the emerging energy marketplace. More

19、rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery systems will require creative and nimble regulatory approaches to ensure the integration of these resources benefit all. More innovative network tariffssuch as the SA Power Networks solar sponge tariff that the AER approved this yearwill be critical. The A

20、ER is also supporting investment in demand management innovations that will reduce the need to invest in network assets. The national gas industry could also undergo significant change as some jurisdictions move towards a zero carbon emissions policy. This could have significant consequences for the

21、 future of gas pipeline networks. In response, the AER recently supported the future recovery of Jemenas investment in trialling the production of hydrogen from renewable energy for injection into its Sydney network. If hydrogen trials such as Jemenas prove successful, the natural gas networks could

22、 be re-purposed to distribute hydrogen. If not, the economic life of the assets could be limited, raising questions in price reviews about levels of investment, how quickly assets should be depreciated, and the appropriate path of network prices over time. Making well informed decisions about energy

23、 investment requires confidence in the policy and regulatory environment, along with a deep understanding of the marketplace. The many and varied interventions by governments and regulators are complex for industry and consumers alike. Its incumbent on us all to increase the transparency of and rati

24、onale for our evidence based decisions in plain language. We will continue to build on our strong relationships with industry, consumers, business groups, regulatory counterparts and government stakeholders as we play our part in energy regulation and policy development. We understand there are inve

25、stment decisions that depend on our decisions, and we will continue to work hard to be open and timely in our engagement. We will continue to build on communicating the benefits of our website Energy Made Easy, #PowerToCompare, to deliver transparent and independent alternatives for consumers. The S

26、tate of the energy market has served as a valuable resource for decision makers across the policy, legal and regulatory spheres. I commend this resource to everyone who contributes to the governance, generation, distribution, transmission, supply and demand of energy in Australia. Clare SavageChair

27、June 2020 STATE OF THE ENERGY MARKET 2020 3 CONTENTS 1 PREFACE 5 SNAPSHOT 9 MARKET OVERVIEW 11 The electricity market in transition 13 National Electricity Market 15 Eastern Australian gas markets 17 Regulated energy networks 21 Retail energy markets 25 Infographicsenergy supply chains 27 1 THE ELEC

28、TRICITY MARKET IN TRANSITION 29 1.1 Drivers of change 36 1.2 Features of the transition 43 1.3 Reliability issues 45 1.4 Power system security issues 53 1.5 Efficiency challenges 60 1.6 Coordinated reforms 63 1.7 Government initiatives 67 2 NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET 69 2.1 Electricity consumption

29、73 2.2 Generation technologies in the NEM 81 2.3 Trade across NEM regions 83 2.4 Market structure 91 2.5 Generation investment and plant closures 94 2.6 Wholesale prices and activity 102 2.7 Electricity contract markets 106 2.8 Market competition 107 2.9 Power system reliability 110 2.10 Power syste

30、m security 115 3 ELECTRICITY NETWORKS 117 3.1 Electricity network characteristics 117 3.2 Geography 119 3.3 Network ownership 119 3.4 How network prices are set 125 3.5 Recent AER revenue decisions 127 3.6 Refining the regulatory approach 129 3.7 Power of Choice reforms 131 3.8 Network revenue 136 3

31、.9 Network charges and retail bills 136 3.10 Electricity network investment 146 3.11 Rates of return 147 3.12 Electricity network operating costs 152 3.13 Electricity network productivity 161 3.14 Reliability and service performance 175 4 GAS MARKETS IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA 177 4.1 Gas markets in easte

32、rn Australia 180 4.2 Gas demand in eastern Australia 181 4.3 Liquefied natural gas exports 182 4.4 Gas reserves in eastern Australia 184 4.5 Gas production 186 4.6 Gas storage 187 4.7 Gas transmission pipelines 189 4.8 Gas imports 189 4.9 Contract and spot gas markets 195 4.10 State of the eastern g

33、as market 203 4.11 Gas prices 208 4.12 Market responses to supply risk 210 4.13 Government intervention in gas markets 211 4.14 Gas market reform 215 5 REGULATED GAS NETWORKS 217 5.1 Gas pipeline services 217 5.2 Gas pipeline ownership 219 5.3 How gas pipelines are regulated 221 5.4 How gas pipeline

34、 access prices are set 225 5.5 The building blocks of gas pipeline revenue 227 5.6 Gas pipeline revenues 228 5.7 Gas pipeline investment 231 5.8 Gas pipeline operating costs 233 6 RETAIL ENERGY MARKETS 235 6.1 Retail products and services 236 6.2 Energy market regulation 237 6.3 Energy retailers 239

35、 6.4 Components of energy bills 242 6.5 How retail prices are set 244 6.6 Customer bills 249 6.7 Competition in retail energy markets 263 6.8 The evolving electricity market 265 6.9 Energy affordability 272 6.10 Customer complaints 272 6.11 Enforcement action in retail markets 276 ABBREVIATIONS SNAP

36、SHOT National Electricity Market As ageing coal generators exit the market, over 93 per cent of investment since 201213 has been in wind and solar plant, often located on the fringes of the grid. Renewable plant produced record output in 2019. Wind farms accounted for 8 per cent of output, and solar

37、 farms for 2.5 per cent. Rooftop solar photovoltaic systems met another 5.2 per cent of the markets electricity needs. Investment in wind and solar plant slowed from mid- 2019, as technical issues with integrating new plant into the system delayed projects. Coordinated planning reforms aim to better

38、 integrate renewable plant, rooftop solar PV, demand response and battery storage into the system, with a focus on ensuring the transmission grid can meet transport needs. As the market transitions, intervention to manage power system security and reliability risks has risen, imposing significant co

39、sts on energy customers. The Australian Energy Market Operator has directed some generators to operate even when not economic, and constrained some low priced plant from operating. South Australia and, more recently, Victoria and Queensland have been the focus of these interventions. Investment in f

40、irming capacity (such as fast start generation, demand response, battery storage and pumped hydro plant) is needed to fill supply gaps when a lack of wind or sunshine curtails renewable plant. The Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader mechanism was activated in each of the past three summers to s

41、ecure back-up supply, at a cost of $126 million. And the Retailer Reliability Obligation, launched in July 2019, was activated in January 2020 (in South Australia). Victoria at $126 per megawatt hour (MWh) edged South Australia ($125 per MWh) as the NEMs highest price region in 2019. Wholesale price

42、s peaked early in the year, due to high fuel costs and periods of (weather driven) high demand. Generator outages in Victoria also impacted the market. Rising solar generation and weakening fuel costs eased wholesale prices from mid-2019, with prices for the first quarter of 2020 below $110 per MWh

43、in all regions for the first time since 2015. But extreme weather contributed to record frequency control costs ($220 million) for that quarter. Eastern Australia gas Gas production in the northern gas basins rose to record levels in 2019, in response to (over-optimistic) forecasts of Asian liquefie

44、d natural gas (LNG) demand over the 2020 northern hemisphere winter. Gas producer agreements with the Australian Government to offer uncontracted supply to the domestic market helped ease domestic supply concerns. New gas supply from the Northern Territory (via the Northern Gas Pipeline) also mitiga

45、ted risks. Policy reforms in 2019 made it easier to access gas pipelines needed to transport gas to markets. The reforms free up contracted pipeline capacity that is not being fully used, either through voluntary trade or mandatory day-ahead auctions. The auctions freed up over 40 petajoules of capa

46、city across 10 pipelines in the first 13 months of operation, with most capacity auctioned at the reserve price of zero. LNG prices weakened as new international supply came online at a time when demand was slowing. In March 2020 intense price competition between Saudi and Russian oil producers, and

47、 COVID-19 related demand reductions dragged international oil prices to their lowest levels since 2003. Australian exporters reported the uncertainty stemming from COVID-19 and collapsing oil prices limited their ability to strike new gas supply agreements. Increased domestic supply, pipeline reform

48、s and weakening global markets flowed through to domestic prices. Spot prices averaged $78 per gigajoule (GJ) in the fourth quarter of 2019, down from $10 per GJ a year earlier. Some trades in the first quarter of 2020 were being made at prices below $5 per GJ in southern markets, and below $4 per G

49、J in northern markets. Four LNG import terminals are being considered across South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales (NSW). SNAPSHOT SNAPSHOT Regulated energy networks Revenue forecasts in current regulatory periods are 13 per cent lower for electricity networks, and 14 per cent lower for gas networks, than in previous periods. Lower rates of return were a key driver of declining revenues. Electricity distribution revenue in 2019 hit its lowest point since 2011, and was 23 per cent lower than the peak recorded in 2015. Transm