萬國郵政聯盟：2020年郵政發展報告-在重大危機中實現更高績效（英文版）（32頁）.pdf

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1、Postal Development Report 2020 Achieving higher performance amid a major crisis October 2020 Postal Development Report 2020 Achieving higher performance amid a major crisis International Bureau Executive Office (DIRCAB), Research and Strategy Programme October 2020 2 POSTAL DEVELOPMENT REPORT About

2、this report This report benchmarks the situation of postal development around the world in 2020 a crucial topic owing to the important role played by the postal sector in promoting socio-economic development. The analysis is based on the Integrated Index for Postal Development (2IPD), which draws on

3、 a wide range of postal (big) data from numerous sources to provide a composite picture of postal development in 170 countries. Switzerland tops the list, followed by Austria, Germany, the Netherlands and Japan, with the top 10 mostly made up of advanced economies. There are also encouraging results

4、 among regional leaders, such as Poland, Singapore, Tunisia, Brazil and Ghana. The report discusses the considerable impact of COVID-19 on the postal sector through the lens of the 2IPD. The analysis reveals that the reliability of the international postal supply chain has been re-established, after

5、 considerable disruptions in March and April 2020. Nevertheless, a major consequence of the pandemic is that the postal network is still less connected and far-reaching than it was a year ago. While the operators of most advanced economies appear to be resilient to the economic shock, in most develo

6、ping countries the battle for the relevance of the sector is gathering pace. Authors: Mauro Boffa, Ferno De Borba and Lukasz Piotrowski. Copyright 2020 Universal Postal Union. All rights reserved Except as otherwise indicated, the copyright in this publication is owned by the Universal Postal Union

7、(UPU). Reproduction is authorized for non-commercial purposes, subject to proper acknowledgement of the source. This authorization does not extend to any material identified in this publication as being the copyright of a third party. Authorization to reproduce such third-party materials must be obt

8、ained from the copyright holders concerned. Disclaimer: This publication by the UPU constitutes research in progress of an informational character for which no guarantees or assurances are provided; in this regard, it shall not be deemed to represent the official position or opinions of the UPU or i

9、ts staff members, or of UPU member countries. Moreover, the depiction and use of boundaries, geographic names and related data shown on maps and included in lists, tables, documents, and databases are not warranted to be error-free, nor do they necessarily imply official endorsement or acceptance by

10、 the UPU. 3 UNIVERSAL POSTAL UNION, 2020 Contents Introduction 5 1. The 2IPD 7 2. The 2020 2IPD ranking 9 3. The COVID-19 crisis and postal development 15 4. Conclusion 19 Appendix 1: Regional classification and list of countries 20 Appendix 2: Economic classification of postal development 21 Append

11、ix 3: Methodology for calculating the 2IPD index 22 Endnotes 28 List of figures Figure 1 Cumulative distribution, 2020 2IPD 8 Figure 2 2020 2IPD 9 Figure 3 Continued dispersion in the 2IPD ranking 9 Figure 4 Within-region dispersion (2020 scores) 10 Figure 5 Overview: Industrialized countries 10 Fig

12、ure 6 Overview: Europe and CIS 11 Figure 7 Overview: Asia-Pacific 11 Figure 8 Overview: Arab region 12 Figure 9 Overview: Latin America and the Caribbean 12 Figure 10 Overview: Africa 12 Figure 11 Postal development and economic development 15 Figure 12 Stranded mail ratio 16 Figure 13 Evolution of

13、network breadth and depth 16 Figure 14 Median monthly network losses 17 Figure 15 Median spread with respect to wealthy performers 18 List of tables Table 1 2020 2IPD ranking 13 Table 2 Key differences in resilience 18 4 POSTAL DEVELOPMENT REPORT Glossary 2IPD Integrated Index for Postal Development

14、 COVID-19 Coronavirus disease 2019 DO Designated operator GDP Gross domestic product EDI Electronic data interchange EMS Express Mail Service EMSEVT EMS item event PREDES Pre-advice of dispatch PTC Postal Technology Centre SDGs Sustainable Development Goals SDR Special Drawing Rights USD United Stat

15、es dollar WDI World Development Indicators 5 UNIVERSAL POSTAL UNION, 2020 Introduction Postal development matters The postal sector plays an important role in promoting socio-economic development.i Affordable, efficient and universal postal services substantially reduce transaction costs between eco

16、nomic agents, granting them access to a vast communications and infrastructure network. In this sense, the postal sector actively contributes to the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Postal development can be defined as reflecting the ability of a countrys posta

17、l network to perform across a wide range of factors that enable socio-economic development. In this regard, postal networks can be considered as high performing if they offer a reliable service and have good connectivity, a high level of demand from citizens, and operations that are resilient to ext

18、ernal shocks. The Integrated Index for Postal Development (2IPD) embodies this definition and provides policymakers, regulators and operators with tools to assess a countrys level of postal development. By drawing on a wide range of (big) data from numerous sources, the 2IPD provides a composite pic

19、ture of postal development in 170 countries, with a ranking that focuses on the performance of traditional postal operators. Historically, these operators have primarily been considered as vehicles for delivering socio- economic development, representing one of the largest physical networks in the w

20、orld, with some 656,000 post offices and 5.23 million employees.ii Top performers in 2020 This year, Switzerland continues to top the ranking, followed by Austria, Germany, the Netherlands and Japan, with the top 10 mostly made up of advanced economies. As in previous years, there are, of course, en

21、couraging results among regional leaders, such as Poland, Singapore, Tunisia, Brazil and Ghana. The COVID-19 crisis and postal development The report discusses the impact of the COVID- 19 pandemic through the lens of the four dimensions of the 2IPD. At first, major logistical challenges faced throug

22、hout the world during the height of the “great lockdown” rapidly affected postal reliability. The worldwide drop in air travel coupled with a shortage of labour supply caused many mail items to become “stranded”, dilating international delivery times. As the necessary sanitary measures were progress

23、ively eased, the logistics supply chain started returning to more “normal” levels. However, the medium-to-long-term effects on postal operators cannot be underestimated. At the time of writing this report, the connectivity of the international network has not yet been fully restored. Currently, fewe

24、r items are being sent internationally and to fewer destinations than in 2019. Some countries will struggle to regain the volumes generated prior to the crisis. The crisis will put to test the relevance of the sector as the world still has to bridge the so- called “postal development divide”. While

25、in most advanced economies postal services are at the heart of everyday business needs, many developing countries are currently witnessing low levels of demand for letter post as well as parcels and logistics. In this context, the operators that already had the most resilient business models prior t

26、o the crisis will fare better, but they will also remain highly dependent on the growth of e-commerce and on wider economic circumstances in their countries. The new road(s) to postal development As a rising number of postal operators increase their reliance on parcels and logistics in order to reap

27、 the benefits of e-commerce growth, they are also de facto increasing their dependence on a highly competitive segment in which reliability and reach are pre-conditions for success. In such an environment, the only way for postal operators to boost relevance in the long term is to attract and retain

28、 customers that order goods online and value timeliness and predictability in delivery, regardless of whether the item is 6 POSTAL DEVELOPMENT REPORT purchased domestically or imported. As the starting conditions are not the same everywhere, there will be different roads to postal development, heigh

29、tening the importance of international cooperation in areas such as knowledge sharing, common standards and technology. As a forum, a provider of technical solutions and a knowledge centre for the postal sector, the UPU can certainly contribute to this endeavour. Structure of this report This report

30、 is structured in four sections. Section 1 discusses the methodology behind the 2IPD. Section 2 presents the latest 2IPD ranking. Section 3 discusses the consequences of COVID- 19 on postal development. Section 4 concludes the report. 7 UNIVERSAL POSTAL UNION, 2020 1. The 2IPD Four pillars of postal

31、 development The 2IPD is a comparative indicator of postal development around the world.iii It is a composite index that summarizes information about the performance of postal operators in 170 countries. As such, the 2IPD is a unique tool for analyzing the state of the postal sector. Thanks to its w

32、ide geographic coverage and the depth of its underlying data, this index appeals to a multitude of stakeholders, from policymakers and regulators to postal operators and wider postal sector players. The 2IPD is built on four pillars (which are in turn sustained by a variety of sub-indicators): Relia

33、bility reflects performance in terms of speed and predictability of delivery, across all the key segments of physical postal services (letter post, parcel post and express). Reach synthesizes global connectivity by evaluating the breadth and depth of the postal operators international network. These

34、 are measured by the number of partner networks and the volumes of international exchanges, respectively, across all the key segments of physical postal services. Relevance measures the intensity of demand for the full portfolio of postal services relative to the best performers in each category of

35、postal activity, also taking into account elements such as the number of international transactions and the number of post offices. Resilience indicates the level of diversification of revenue streams, as well as the capacity to innovate and deliver inclusive postal services. The purpose of the reli

36、ability pillar is to measure the operational efficiency of postal services, showing the degree to which they are performed in a timely and predictable manner. The reach pillar captures the level of internationalization of these operations, demonstrating whether postal services in the country in ques

37、tion have a high level of cross- border exchanges. When it comes to relevance, the key goal is to evaluate the competitiveness of postal services in all key segments, and in particular the potential to generate higher volumes. Countries possessing a relatively denser network and a high level of post

38、al consumption per capita will show good performance in this area. Regarding the resilience pillar, the intent is to assess the ability of postal services to withstand external shocks through adaptable business models. Overall, these four pillars are aimed at providing a balanced view of postal deve

39、lopment, without solely focusing on operational (e.g. delivery), strategic (e.g. business portfolio management) or societal matters (e.g. financial inclusion). This enables the final score to comprehensively reflect (while succinctly expressing) the situation of postal services in any given geograph

40、y. The input is then integrated into an algorithm, which yields a general score between 0 and 100 for each assessed country. Data supporting the pillars The 2IPD draws on the following types of UPU data: UPU postal big data, namely, tracking data on postal transactions worldwide; Official UPU postal

41、 statistics and UPU surveys. The first type is used mainly to compute indicators associated with quality of service, transactions, volumes and connectivity. It feeds the reliability and reach pillars. The second type applies to the measurement of revenue streams, economies of scale, infrastructure a

42、nd financial inclusion. Every year, the best postal development performer obtains a normalized maximum score of 100, while the worst gets the minimum score of 0. Thus, the normalized scores can be read as the performance of any given country compared with the best (score of 100) or worst (score of 0

43、) global performer. Comparing postal development around the globe Given the statistical distribution of the 2IPD scores, it is possible to categorize countries in four main categories (see Figure 1):iv 8 POSTAL DEVELOPMENT REPORT Postal champions: A score above 60 shows that a countrys postal develo

44、pment is among the top 20% in the world a performance which can be considered very good to outstanding. This group of countries can be denoted as having a well-balanced performance across all pillars of postal development. Good performers: A score between 35 and 60 shows an upper-intermediate level

45、of performance. These countries are consistent performers and belong to the top 50%. Potential performers: A score between 15 and 35 shows a performance that is lower than the median, with countries usually performing only partially well, albeit with some development potential. Most countries in thi

46、s group exhibit glaring weaknesses in one or more areas of postal development. Least developed operators: A score below 15 shows that a countrys postal development is very low. These countries are facing major challenges in several of the key pillars of postal development. Since the 2IPD is a compar

47、ative index, the interpretation of the scores has to take into account four important elements: First, the scores are of a relative nature. Thus, the position of a given country is determined by its performance relative to its peers. If a country makes absolute progress on a specific dimension of th

48、e 2IPD, this will have an impact on the final ranking if and only if its peers have not made even greater gains in performance. Second, the position of a country in the global ranking should preferably be considered in conjunction with the regional standing and its economic development level. In thi

49、s sense, it may be unrealistic to expect countries to be the postal champions if most of their regional peers are struggling. Third, performance is more adequately evaluated in clusters, such as within one of the four main categories mentioned above (i.e. postal champions, good performers, potential performers and least developed operators). Movements in the ranking within a category are mu