麥肯錫全球研究院：疫情過后遠程辦公何去何從？（英文版）（12頁）.pdf

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1、Whats next for remote work: An analysis of 2,000 tasks, 800 jobs, and nine countries Hybrid models of remote work are likely to persist in the wake of the pandemic, mostly for a highly educated, well-paid minority of the workforce. November 2020 Yagi Studio/Getty Images by Susan Lund, Anu Madgavkar,

2、 James Manyika, and Sven Smit For many workers, COVID-19s impact has depended greatly on one question: Can I work from home or am I tethered to my workplace? Quarantines, lockdowns, and self-imposed isolation have pushed tens of millions around the world to work from home, accelerating a workplace e

3、xperiment that had struggled to gain traction before COVID-19 hit. Now, well into the pandemic, the limitations and the benefits of remote work are clearer. Although many people are returning to the workplace as economies reopenthe majority could not work remotely at allexecutives have indicated in

4、surveys that hybrid models of remote work for some employees are here to stay. The virus has broken through cultural and technological barriers that prevented remote work in the past, setting in motion a structural shift in where work takes place, at least for some people. Now that vaccines are awai

5、ting approval, the question looms: To what extent will remote work persist? In this article, we assess the possibility for various work activities to be performed remotely. Building on the McKinsey Global Institutes body 1 The future of work in Europe: Automation, workforce transitions, and the futu

6、re geography of work, McKinsey Global Institute, June 2020; The future of work in America: People and places, today and tomorrow, McKinsey Global Institute, July 2019; Jobs lost, jobs gained: Workforce transitions in a time of automation, McKinsey Global Institute, December 2017. of work on automati

7、on, AI, and the future of work, we extend our models to consider where work is performed.1 Our analysis finds that the potential for remote work is highly concentrated among highly skilled, highly educated workers in a handful of industries, occupations, and geographies. More than 20 percent of the

8、workforce could work remotely three to five days a week as effectively as they could if working from an office. If remote work took hold at that level, that would mean three to four times as many people working from home than before the pandemic and would have a profound impact on urban economies, t

9、ransportation, and consumer spending, among other things. More than half the workforce, however, has little or no opportunity for remote work. Some of their jobs require collaborating with others or using specialized machinery; other jobs, such as conducting CT scans, must be done on location; and s

10、ome, such as making deliveries, are performed while out and about. Many of such jobs are low wage and more at risk from broad trends such as automation and digitization. Remote work thus risks accentuating inequalities at a social level. The virus has broken through cultural and technological barrie

11、rs that prevented remote work in the past, setting in motion a structural shift in where work takes place, at least for some people. 2Whats next for remote work: An analysis of 2,000 tasks, 800 jobs, and nine countries McKinsey Global Institute The potential for remote work is determined by tasks an

12、d activities, not occupations Remote work raises a vast array of issues and challenges for employees and employers. Companies are pondering how best to deliver coaching remotely and how to configure workspaces to enhance employee safety, among a host of other thorny questions raised by COVID-19. For

13、 their part, employees are struggling to find the best home- work balance and equip themselves for working and collaborating remotely. In this article, however, we aim to granularly define the activities and occupations that can be done from home to better understand the future staying power of remo

14、te work. We have analyzed the potential for remote workor work that doesnt require interpersonal interaction or a physical presence at a specific worksitein a range of countries, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. We used MGIs workforce mo

15、del based on the Occupational Information Network (O*NET) to analyze more than 2,000 activities in more than 800 occupations and identify which activities and occupations have the greatest potential for remote work. The potential for remote work depends on the mix of activities undertaken in each oc

16、cupation and on their physical, spatial, and interpersonal context. We first assessed the theoretical extent to which an activity can be done remotely. This depends on whether a worker needs to be physically present on-site to do a task, interact with others, or use location-specific machinery or eq

17、uipment. Many physical or manual activities, as well as those that require use of fixed equipment, cannot be done remotely. These include providing care, operating machinery, using lab equipment, and processing customer transactions in stores. In contrast, activities such as information gathering an

18、d processing, communicating with others, teaching and counseling, and coding data can theoretically be done remotely. Additionally, employers have found during the pandemic that although some tasks can be done remotely in a crisis, they are much more effectively done in person. These activities incl

19、ude coaching, counseling, and providing advice and feedback; building customer and colleague relationships; bringing new employees into a company; negotiating and making critical decisions; teaching and training; and work that benefits from collaboration, such as innovation, problem-solving, and cre

20、ativity. If onboarding were to be done remotely, for instance, it would require significant rethinking of the activity to produce outcomes similar to those achieved in person. For instance, while teaching has moved to remote work during the pandemic, parents and teachers alike say that quality has s

21、uffered. Similarly, courtrooms have functioned remotely but are unlikely to remain online going forward out of concern for legal rights and equitysome defendants lack adequate NoSystem Images/Getty Images 3Whats next for remote work: An analysis of 2,000 tasks, 800 jobs, and nine countries McKinsey

22、Global Institute Exhibit 1 Activities with the highest potential for remote work include updating knowledge and interacting with computers. Potential share of time spent working remotely for select activity categories in the United States, % Task that can be done remotely Attend online seminar Atten

23、d surgical skills course Create electronic data backup Set up computer hardware Design layouts for print publications Create physical prototypes Discuss business strategies Direct fre fghting or prevention Analyze industry trends Analyze crime scene evidence Updating knowledge and learning Interacti

24、ng with computers Processing, analyzing, and interpreting information Thinking creatively Communicating with and guiding colleagues or clients 82917075436843635461 Answer telephones to direct calls Represent clients in legal proceedings Arrange facility schedules Operate cash registers Instruct coll

25、ege students Train food- service personnel Monitor market conditions or trends Patrol properties to maintain safety Market products, services, or events Distribute samples Communicating and establishing inter- personal relationships Performing administrative and organizational activities Selling to

26、or infuencing others Training, teaching, coaching, and developing others Monitoring processes, surroundings, or use of resources 2957395264734462441 Estimate building costs Measure water level or depth Make travel arrangements Provide assistance in emergencies Test software performance Inspect cargo

27、 hazards No examples Collect dirty dishes No examples Operate equipment Measuring products or surroundings Assisting and caring for others Controlling machines and mechanical equipment Equipment, materials, and machinery Handling and moving objects 2433812200 Task that cannot be done remotely Note:

28、The theoretical maximum includes all activities not requiring physical presence on-site; the effective potential includes only those activities that can be done remotely without losing effectiveness. Model based on more than 2,000 activities across more than 800 occupations. Source: McKinsey Global

29、Institute analysis Efective potential (no productivity loss) Theoretical maximum 4Whats next for remote work: An analysis of 2,000 tasks, 800 jobs, and nine countries McKinsey Global Institute connectivity and lawyers, and judges worry about missing nonverbal cues in video conferences. So we have de

30、vised two metrics for remote work potential: the maximum potential, including all activities that theoretically can be performed remotely, and a lower bound for the effective potential for remote work, which excludes activities that have a clear benefit from being done in person (Exhibit 1). To dete

31、rmine the overall potential for remote work for jobs and sectors, we use the time spent on different activities within occupations. We find that remote work potential is concentrated in a few sectors. Finance and insurance has the highest potential, with three-quarters of time spent on activities th

32、at can be done remotely without a loss of productivity. Management, business services, and information technology have the next highest potential, all with more than half of employee time spent on activities that could effectively be done remotely (Exhibit 2). These sectors are characterized by a hi

33、gh share of workers with college degrees or higher. Exhibit 2 The fnance, management, professional services, and information sectors have the highest potential for remote work. Potential share of time spent working remotely by sector in the United States, % Mining Finance and insurance Management Pr

34、ofessional, scientifc, and technical services IT and telecommunications Education Arts, entertainment, and recreation Wholesale trade Healthcare and social assistance Real estate Government and administrative support Utilities Retail trade Manufacturing Transportation and warehousing Total Construct

35、ion Accommodation and food services Agriculture 100% 1925 7686 6878 6275 5869 3369 1932 4152 2029 3244 3142 3137 1828 1923 1822 2939 1520 89 78 Efective potential (no productivity loss)Theoretical maximum Note: The theoretical maximum includes all activities not requiring physical presence on-site;

36、the effective potential includes only those activities that can be done remotely without losing effectiveness. Model based on more than 2,000 activities across more than 800 occupations. Source: McKinsey Global Institute analysis 5Whats next for remote work: An analysis of 2,000 tasks, 800 jobs, and

37、 nine countries McKinsey Global Institute Remote work potential is higher in advanced economies The potential for remote work varies across countries, a reflection of their sector, occupation, and activity mix. Business and financial services are a large share of the UK economy, for example, and it

38、has the highest potential for remote work among the countries we examined. Its workforce could theoretically work remotely one-third of the time without a loss of productivity, or almost half the time but with diminished productivity. (Exhibit 3). Other advanced economies are not far behind; their w

39、orkforces could dedicate 28 to 30 percent of the time to working remotely without losing productivity. In emerging economies, employment is skewed toward occupations that require physical and manual activities in sectors like agriculture and manufacturing. The potential for time spent on remote work

40、 drops to 12 to 26 percent in the emerging economies we assessed. In India, for instance, the workforce could spend just 12 percent of the time working remotely without losing effectiveness. Although India is known globally for its high-tech and financial services industries, the vast majority of it

41、s workforce of 464 million is employed in occupations like retail services and agriculture that cannot be done remotely. Liyao Xie/Getty Images 6Whats next for remote work: An analysis of 2,000 tasks, 800 jobs, and nine countries McKinsey Global Institute Exhibit 3 Labor forces in advanced economies

42、 can spend more time working remotely than workforces in emerging economies. Potential share of time spent working remotely by country, % Note: The theoretical maximum includes all activities not requiring physical presence on-site; the effective potential includes only those activities that can be

43、done remotely without any loss of effectiveness. Model based on more than 2,000 activities across more than 800 occupations. Source: McKinsey Global Institute analysis IndiaChinaMexicoUSFranceJapanSpainGermanyUK Efective potential (no productivity loss) Theoretical maximum 3346 303929392839 2636 182

44、6 1622 1216 2939 100% Advanced economiesEmerging economies Although India is known globally for its high-tech and financial services industries, the vast majority of its workforce of 464 million is employed in occupations like retail services and agriculture that cannot be done remotely. 7Whats next

45、 for remote work: An analysis of 2,000 tasks, 800 jobs, and nine countries McKinsey Global Institute A hybrid model that combines some remote work with work in an office is possible for occupations with high remote work potential For most workers, some activities during a typical day lend themselves

46、 to remote work, while the rest of their tasks require their on-site physical presence. In the US workforce, we find that just 22 percent of employees can work remotely between three and five days a week without affecting productivity, while only 5 percent could do so in India. In contrast, 61 perce

47、nt of the workforce in the United States can work no more than a few hours a week remotely or not at all. The remaining 17 percent of the workforce could work remotely partially, between one and three days per week (Exhibit 4). Consider a floral designer. We estimate that between half and one-quarte

48、r of his job can be done remotely. He can take orders by phone or online and contract for delivery through an app, but floral arrangement itself requires being in a shop where the flowers are stored in a refrigerated case and ribbons, moss, vases, and other materials used to create a floral design a

49、re at hand. To make a floral designers job more remote would require dividing his various tasks among all employees in a flower shop. In contrast, credit analysts, database administrators, and tax preparers, among others, can do virtually all of their work remotely. In general, workers whose jobs require cognitive thinking and problem solving, managing and developing people, and data processing have the greatest potential to work from home. These employees also tend to be among the highest paid. The ability to work remotely also depends on the need to