安永：2018年虛擬貨幣（ICO）報告（英文版）（13頁）.pdf

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1、EY study: Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) The Class of 2017 one year later October 19, 2018 Executive summary In December 2017, we analyzed the top ICOs that represented 87% ICO funding in 2017. In that report, we found high risks of fraud, theft and major problems with the accuracy of representations

2、 made by start-ups seeking funding. In this follow-up study, we revisit the same group of companies to analyze their progress and investment return: The performance of ICOs from The Class of 2017 did little to inspire confidence.1 86% are now below their listing2price; 30% have lost substantially al

3、l value. An investor purchasing a portfolio of The Class of 2017 ICOs on 1 January 2018 would most likely have lost 66% of their investment. Of the ICO start-ups we looked at from The Class of 2017, only 29% (25) have working products or prototypes, up by just 13% from the end of last year. Of those

4、 25, seven companies accept payment in both traditional fiat currency (dollars) as well as ICO tokens, a decision that reduces the value of the tokens to the holders. There were gains among The Class of 2017, concentrated in 10 ICO tokens, most of which are in the blockchain infrastructure category.

5、 However, there is no sign that these new projects have had any success in reducing the dominance of Ethereum as the industrys main platform. 1See methodology in appendix. 2Defined as when first available to trade on a cryptocurrency exchange. ICO performance update02 Page 4EY research: initial coin

6、 offerings ICOs broke out in 2017. Demand continues to grow with claims of over US$15b raised in the first half of 2018. 2015First half of 201820162017 2,231 6,358 21,931 +4,127 +2,221 52% 10 ICOs 48% 475 ICOs Cumulative ICO amounts US$mm Top 10 ICOs raised 52% of the total claimed funds in 2018 506

7、 1,043 1,823 3,538 Cumulative VC funding of blockchain projects US$mm Sources: Amounts claimed by projects are reflected on their websites and ICO rating sites. VC funding based on Techcrunch, Crunchbase, Coindesk. EY is currently matching the amounts claimed to be raised with amounts verifiable on

8、the blockchain and expects to report on how well those figures match. 4,200 1,700 735 575 320 300 150 133 118 114 Petro Telegram EOS_2018 Bankera Dragon TaTaTu Basis Orbs Ucash Huobi token VC 201520162017 (First half of 2018) +15,573 Page 5EY research: initial coin offerings The Class of 2017 today:

9、 86% below listing price, 30% lost substantially all their value. This ICO portfolio is down around 66% from the peak. -77% -56% -66% Class of 2017 Top 10 The Other 131 ICOs Weighted Return Jan-Sep 2018 Project Returns 1 January to 2 September 2 2018 (as of 2 Sept 2018) Sources:EY analysis of 141 IC

10、Os from 2017, where items no longer listed as of 2 September 2018 are rated a 100% loss. Portfolio returns are weighted based on market capitalization as of 1 January 2018. 132 ICOs Below Peak Value 43 ICOs Declined by More Than 90% -66% -56% -77% -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% Page 6EY

11、research: initial coin offerings About a year after raising money, only a small portion of ICO-funded start-ups have progressed towards working product offerings. 5% 13% 11% 16% 84% 71% % of all the projects Our survey found companies that have made meaningful progress toward working products only i

12、ncreased by 13%in 2018.71%have no offering in the market at all. Source:EY analysis of 86 projects based on their public sites and 2017 whitepapers 2017 2018 Idea *Prototype *Working product +13% Typically, within one year of a traditional venture-backed software start-up, you would expect to see a

13、significantly higher percentage of the companies with a functional early stage product. * Defined as the beginning phase of product development, provides testing models and validation. * Defined as the beginning of product sales. Page 7EY research: initial coin offerings For those that do have worki

14、ng products, many are effectively abandoning their ICO investors by de-emphasizing the role of their tokens. 13% 16%Prototype Working product Idea 2018 71% ICO projects accepting fiat usually offer some benefits for token users, similar to points in traditional loyalty programs. However, users do no

15、t use utility tokens to store value. To use the platform, users have to purchase the necessary amount and incur related transaction costs and token volatility risk. Detokenization: One year after an ICO, Digipulse, a “crypto- inheritance” service, has announced it will detokenize its business, shift

16、ing exclusively to direct fiat currency payments. 7out of25reviewed projects accept other currencies, rendering utility tokens less valuable. Some projects have altogether dropped their utility tokens to focus on functionality. To become a means of payment, utility tokens have to be stable. If it re

17、mains stable, the token is of little interest to speculative investors. Source:EY analysis of 86 projects based on their public sites; 2017 whitepapers. *Since 2017, companies suspended development Accepted currency SectorUSD (Fiat)Own token Raised US$m MiningNoYes*70-100 FinanceNoYes70-100 Blockcha

18、in platformNoYes60-70 Gaming, VRNoYes*50-60 HealthcareNoYes30-50 Social networkYesYes30-50 FinanceYesYes30-50 Identity, data verificationYesYes30-50 Social networkNoYes30-50 Data storageYesYes20-30 Gaming, VRNoYes20-30 Blockchain platformNoYes20-30 Blockchain platformNoYes20-30 FinanceNoYes20-30 Blo

19、ckchain platformNoYes10-50 FinanceYesYes10-20 Blockchain platformNoYes10-20 Blockchain platformNoYes10-20 Blockchain platformNoYes10-20 Trading platformNoYes10-20 Prediction marketNoYes10-20 FinanceNoYes10-20 Blockchain platformNoYes10-20 FinanceYesYes10-20 Trading platformYesYes10-20 Page 8EY resea

20、rch: initial coin offerings Dentacoin Top 10 ICOs in The Class of 2017 bring 99% of the net gain (84% of the gross gain) since the initial offerings. A majority are in blockchain infrastructure. Source: EY analysis of 141 ICOs from 2017 Page 9EY research: initial coin offerings The most successful i

21、nvestments from 2017 were blockchain platforms, but so far, none are challenging Ethereum. Source:EY analysis based on ICO websites, Coinmarketcap, Token Market, Coinmarketcal, Icobench, Icodrops Scope: 633 ICO from 2017 and 2018 (84% of the total amount). Page 10EY research: initial coin offerings

22、The Ethereum developer community is more dominant than the nearest competing platforms. +330% waves neo stellar Ethereum May 2018Jan 2017Jul 2017Dec 2017 5.434 +657% +105% 2,584 356.518 +290% 392.427 +24% Development activity (forks) Number of questions solved on GitHubReddit Facebook Twitter Develo

23、per activitySocial media activity May 2018Jan 2017Jul 2017Dec 2017 May 2018Jan 2017Jul 2017Dec 2017 Source: EY analysis based on Github; Ethereum, Coingecko 137,389 Page 11EY research: initial coin offerings Key takeaways and outlook Nearly a year after the first big global wave of ICOs, there is no

24、t enough data yet to form a full perspective on the risk and return mix of this new investment medium. In prior technological revolutions, many companies failed, and it took time for those that didnt to mature into investments appropriate for a wide variety of investors. However, the early returns f

25、rom ICOs are not encouraging. Compared to traditional venture capital investing, ICO-backed companies look like they offer more risk based on a number of factors including the lack of progress towards usable products. The highest performing ICO investments in the last year have been mostly focused o

26、n blockchain infrastructure, while those focused on blockchain-enabled applications and business ecosystems generally have performed poorly. In a year, we plan to revisit The Class of 2017 and provide an update. We also plan to issue a report later this year reconciling funding claimed by projects t

27、o the activity reflected in their respective blockchains. Globally, sources of funding will likely shift away from retail investors towards entities that can understand and manage the downside risks, such as venture capital and digital asset-focused investment funds. Regulatory concerns will likely

28、continue to limit participation of certain classes of investors in various jurisdictions (e.g., non-accredited investors in the US). We expect regulators in developed securities markets to proceed cautiously. Page 12EY research: initial coin offerings Methodology ICO market is unregulated, there is

29、no single source of ICO data, reporting standards or generally accepted methodology. The findings are preliminary and based on public sources, and EY cannot always match the information given by these sources with the transactional data available on the public blockchain. We based our study on proje

30、ct websites, the most popular crypto exchanges, ICO trackers, data aggregators and interviews. Our approach: Performed detailed analysis of the top 141 projects from 2017 Analysis of ICO blockchain network statistics, based on network monitors sites, and third party analytics Verified our conclusion

31、s against other public studies Interviews Exchanges and data aggregators Coinmarketcap Coinbase Coindesk ICO trackers Coingeko TokenData IcoWatchList TokenMarket T Coinschedule TokenReport Blockchain network scanners platforms Bloxy.info EtherScan Blockchain.info EthereumGasStation B GitHub News sit

32、es Coindesk Forklog Anycoin Bloomberg Fortune Business Insider TechCrunch Forbes C Public ICO reports CB Insight Funderbeam Autonomous Next Dedicated Blockchain social media Bitcointalk Medium Reddit Data sources: EY | Assurance | Tax | Transactions | Advisory About EY EY is a global leader in assur

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35、 company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. For more information about our organization, please visit . About EYs Advisory Services EY Advisory believes a better working world means helping clients solve big, complex industry issues and capitalize on opportunities to grow, o

36、ptimize and protect their businesses. A global mindset, diversity and collaborative culture inspires EY consultants to ask better questions, create innovative answers and realize long-lasting results. The better the question. The better the answer. The better the world works. 2018 EYGM Limited. All Rights Reserved. EYG no. 011628-18Gbl ED None This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax or other professional advice. Please refer to your advisors for specific advice.