麥肯錫：重塑中國：將全球最大的勞動力轉變為終身學習者（英文版）（128頁）.pdf

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1、January 2021 Reskilling China Transforming the worlds largest workforce into lifelong learners Preface China has the largest workforce in the world, and the economy in which citizens live and work is in the throes of dynamic change. China is modernizing and digitizing, and is now turning its attenti

2、on to how to ensure that workers have the skills they need for the next phase of the countrys economic journey. After three decades of educational reform, the new focus is on reskilling and embedding an ethos of lifelong learning in Chinas workplaces and society. This report focuses on ways to refor

3、m Chinas talent-development systems. It builds on MGIs extensive research on Chinas economy and global analysis on the future of work. Educational reform is a broad topic that includes philosophy, culture, history, and society, and requires in-depth expertise from academics, policy makers, education

4、al institutions, parents, and students. In this research, however, we take an economic lens, focusing in particular on the development of skills. The research was led by Jonathan Woetzel, McKinsey senior partner and a director of MGI in Shanghai; Jeongmin Seong, MGI partner in Shanghai; Nick Leung,

5、McKinsey senior partner and chairman of McKinsey Greater China in Hong Kong; Joe Ngai, McKinsey senior partner and managing partner of McKinsey Greater China in Hong Kong; Li-Kai Chen, McKinsey senior partner in Kuala Lumpur; and Vera Tang, a McKinsey partner in Shenzhen. The work was also guided by

6、 James Manyika, McKinsey senior partner and co-chair and director of MGI in San Francisco; Jaana Remes, MGI partner in San Francisco; and Susan Lund, MGI partner in Washington, DC. Shivin Agarwal and Bo Wang led the research team, which comprised Gang Chen, Ke Dong, Ashley Li, Yifei Liu, Julia Ni, E

7、rik Rong, Yining Xu, Athena Yan, and Chang Zhao. We thank Gurneet Singh Dandona and Alok Singh for their input on future of work analytics. We thank our academic advisers, who challenged our thinking and provided valuable guidance. They are Rakesh Mohan, a senior fellow at the Jackson Institute for

8、Global Affairs at Yale University and distinguished fellow at Brookings India; Gordon Orr, director emeritus and senior adviser to McKinsey; Christopher A. Pissarides, winner of the 2010 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences and Regius Professor of Economics, London School of Economics; and Andr

9、ew Sheng, distinguished fellow of the Asia Global Institute. We are grateful to many McKinsey and MGI colleagues around the world who offered valuable insights, including Tera Allas, Marco Dondi, Emma Dorn, Andre Dua, Kweilin Ellingrud, KarelEloot, Elizabeth Foote, Xiang Ji, Jonathan Law, Denise Lee

10、, Guangyu Li, Cheryl Lim, Meng Meng, Oliver Ren, Naba Salman, Saurabh Sanghvi, Dirk Schmautzer, Vincent Tsao, Tianwen Yu, and Haimeng Zhang. We also thank experts from academia, social institutions, and corporations who shared their observations on the topic of education and training. iiMcKinsey Glo

11、bal Institute This report was edited by MGI senior editor JanetBush, with MGI senior editor StephanieStrom. For their support, we thank members of MGIs operations team: editorial production manager Julie Philpot; graphic designers Marisa Carder and Patrick White; DennisAlexander, Nienke Beuwer, Cath

12、y Gui, and Rebeca Robboy in MGIs external relations team; digital editor Lauren Meling; research specialist Tim Beacom; and manager of personnel and administration Deadra Henderson. We also thank graphic designer LauraBrown and Richard Johnson, McKinsey senior editor, data visualization. We thank Gl

13、enn Leibowitz, McKinseys group head of reputation and communications in Greater China; Ellie Miao, managing producer and editor in Shanghai; Xiaoyun Li, external communications specialist; and Lin Lin, deputy editor in chief. We are grateful to Arjun Chandrasekhar, ZiadHaider, and Meng Liu of McKins

14、eys risk team. While we are grateful for all the input we have received, the report and views expressed here are ours alone. We welcome your comments on this research at MGI. James Manyika Director and Co-chair, McKinsey Global Institute Senior Partner, McKinsey this implies tripling the scope of sk

15、ills development. Second, content needs to evolve from basic to a broad range of skills (everything). The high cognitive, social and emotional, and technical skills that will be in demand could account for an additional 236 billion hours by 2030, or an average of about 40 days per worker. Third, edu

16、cation and skills development should be available to all throughout their lives (everywhere) to support all workers who need to undertake some reskilling every year. Based on an extensive survey of best practices in China and around the world, pilot projects based on four levers could kick-start the

17、 transformation: Adoption of digital technologies. Chinas economy is already significantly digitized, with increasing investment in educational technologies. More than two million people could deliver microcurricula through digital platforms while various tools such as artificial intelligence and vi

18、rtual reality can improve the efficiency of delivery. More than 900 million internet users can benefit from digital technology and enjoy enhanced quality through hybrid online-offline learning. Collaborative ecosystem. Expanded use of public-private partnerships can help plug the gap between skills

19、developed and what the market needs. Educators and employers can partner to design joint programs and drive innovative research. A coalition of school industry partnerships, potentially with commitment from 300,000 companies, could be developed. Industry-specific partnerships can help address talent

20、 shortages of 30 million people in ten key manufacturing sectors identified by the government. Enhanced vocational tracks. China can make the vocational track attractive to students by expanding flexible pathways such as a “3+4” secondary-undergraduate model that enables them to go directly to appli

21、cation-oriented universities. Vocational pathways also need to be flexible to support midcareer transitions. China can develop vocational educators with industry experiencemore than 80 percent of the totalto improve the quality of teaching staff. Mindsets and incentives. Individuals can shape their

22、lifelong learning journey by using information platforms and acquiring required skills through microcredential programs. Employers can enhance competitiveness by strengthening their provision of training. The government can provide incentives to further investment in human capital. Implementing the

23、transformation requires an integrated delivery unit approach. A national leading group with ministry representatives and subject-matter experts can steer the overall direction together with local delivery units of governments, employers, educators, and social institutions to drive implementation. De

24、eper participation by private-sector players as educators in their own organizations and investors in training and skills is needed. Executives can consider a checklist of priorities such as identifying skill gaps, devoting more resources to training workers, and expanding partnerships with other st

25、akeholders. In brief Reskilling China viMcKinsey Global Institute Infographic Reskilling China China faces skills and jobs shifts on an unprecedented scale Transforming China into a nation of lifelong learners Pilots based on four levers could start the skills transformation Implementing a new syste

26、m needs a national leading group, local delivery units, and deeper engagement from employers, including those in the private sector Up to 220 million workers may shift occupational categories (early automation scenario) 87 days per average worker could be automated, and need to be redeployed 22-40%

27、of work activities of 331 million migrant workers at risk of automation OccupationsSkillsEquity Digital technologies Engaging, multi-channel hybrid model 900m reached through tech-enabled learning platforms and more than 2m people deliver microcurricula Collaborative ecosystem Partnerships among edu

28、cators, employers, and government 300,000 school-industry partnerships Enhanced vocational track Competitive and fexible pathways for students and adults, higher quality teachers 80% of teachers have industry experience Shift in mindset and incentives Culture of lifelong learning for individuals and

29、 employers All eligible for skills development subsidy expansion of skills development system to cover all students and workers Everyone 3x hours by 2030 (40 days per worker) subject to rising demand for higher cognitive, social and emotional, and tech skills, requiring new content and delivery Ever

30、ything 236B access to skills development to overcome time, place, and money constraints Everywhere 24/7 Workforce shifting occupation, %Hours of work, 201830Migrant worker activities, % Displaced by automation Chinese workers Automation riskGlobal 516B 362240 Three transitions to 2030 Potential goal

31、s by 2030 for a postindustrial economy Martin Puddy/Stone/Getty Images China has changed beyond recognition since its opening in the late 1970s and is now undergoing another significant evolution from an export-, manufacturing-, and investment- led economy to one driven by domestic consumption, serv

32、ices, and innovationarguably a postindustrial economy. After decades of reform, China today has an education system that is oriented toward an industrial economy. Gaps in access, quality, and relevance in education still need to be plugged, but there is now potentially an even larger challenge to me

33、et: developing the skills needed for a modern, digital, and innovative economy, instilling a new national ethos of lifelong learning, and ensuring that the system is equitable. Nothing less than a transformation of Chinas education and talent-development systems appears necessary. China has undertak

34、en transformative reform before; it now needs to do so again. Around the world, work is changing as digitization and automation spread, and many millions of people will need to become more skilled, refresh their skills, and continually reinvent themselvesand some to change occupations. Because of th

35、e countrys sheer scale, as many as one-third of the global occupational transitions needed for the future of work may be in China. If it gets this right, best practices and models could offer a helpful reference point for other economies, particularly emerging ones. In this report, the McKinsey Glob

36、al Institute (MGI) assesses the countrys education system today and, based on an extensive survey of best practices in China and around the world, describes pilot projects using four levers that could kick-start a transformation of Chinas talent-development system designed to have sufficient breadth

37、 and ambition to enable continuous rising in living standards in the period to 2030. We do not attempt to tackle the full breadth of the issues relating to educational reform, which, we acknowledge, includes much broader dimensions such as philosophy, culture, history, and society, and which require

38、s the in-depth expertise of academics, policy makers, educational institutions, parents, and students. Rather, we focus on the economic dimension of talent development and, in particular, on the development of skills. We hope that this analysis can provide helpful input and facilitate discussion amo

39、ng key stakeholders. Executive summary 1Reskilling China: Transforming the worlds largest workforce into lifelong learners China needs a skills revolution to enable continuous rises in living standards for all in a postindustrial economy A skills revolution is vital if the quality of life of the ave

40、rage Chinese person is to continue improving even as the nature of the economy changes. Over the past 30 years, incomes and labor productivity have grown tenfold, and GDP has increased by 13 times. However, some key drivers are waning. The mass migration from agriculture to urban employment helped f

41、uel rapid growth, but the pace of urbanization is slowing down. China is aging, and the working- age population is shrinking. Debt levels and costs are rising. To sustain continuing increases in per capita GDP and wages will require rising productivity enabled by improved skills and innovation.1 Chi

42、nese think tanks have simulated scenarios in which the country achieves the aspirations of 70 percent of the per capita GDP of high- income economies by 2050, compared with 27 percent today.2 The scenarios suggest that China needs to achieve annual growth in per capita GDP of 4.7 percent and wage gr

43、owth of 4.9 percent by 2050 (Exhibit E1). 1 The China effect on global innovation, McKinsey Global Institute, October 2015. 2 A high-income country is defined by the World Bank as having gross per capita national income of $12,536 or more in 2019; China did not belong to this category in that year.

44、Several Chinese think tanks interpret Chinas goal of becoming a fully modernized economy by 2050 to achieve between 50 percent and 80 percent of high-income economies by 2050. Exhibit E1 205019902019 1 10 41 1 8 35 205020191990 Sustaining per capita GDP and wage growth is important for continuous im

45、provement of living standards. Source: World Bank; McKinsey Global Institute analysis 1.Some Chinese think tanks defined a long-term scenario in which China achieves 70% of the average of high-income economies per capita GDP by 2050. The World Bank defines a high-income country as one with gross per

46、 capita national income of $12,536 or more in 2019. 2.Assuming labor share of income remains constant. China per capita GDP Simulation $ thousand, 2015 real terms Average annual wage per employee 4.7 p.a. 4.9 p.a. 8.7 p.a. 9.3 p.a. Scenario: Chinese think tanks interpretation of long-term goal to ac

47、hieve 70% of average per capita GDP of high-income economies1 Scenario: Implied wage growth for China to 70% of average per capita GDP of high-income economies2 2McKinsey Global Institute Chinas economy is undergoing rapid changes in pursuit of these goals. The economy is transitioning away from bei

48、ng led by investment and manufacturing to being driven by consumption, services, and innovation.3 This changes the mix of skills and talent needed. At the same time, a global spread of digitization and automation is reducing demand for manufacturing jobs characterized by repetitive physical activity

49、, as well as service jobs requiring basic cognitive skills such as data entry and validation. Demand is rising for social and emotional skills as well as technological skills. If anything, digitization and automation have accelerated in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and therefore the need to be

50、 mobile and reskill may have become even more urgent.4 China could make three transitions that in combination amount to a transformation of its labor market on an unprecedented scale (Exhibit E2). Occupations. By 2030, up to 220 million Chinese workers, or 30 percent of the workforce, may need to tr