在溫哥華邁向基于活動的模式.pdf

《在溫哥華邁向基于活動的模式.pdf》由會員分享，可在線閱讀，更多相關《在溫哥華邁向基于活動的模式.pdf（11頁珍藏版）》請在三個皮匠報告上搜索。

1、Moving toward activity-based models in Metro VancouverBo Wen,Senior Modeler,TransLinkOur Modeling RegionConference on Innovations in Travel Analysis and PlanningEvolving planning needsConference on Innovations in Travel Analysis and PlanningAM Peak Model(Work)Mode Share1980Truck Model1990Park and Ri

2、deAdditional Trip PurposesUpdated VDFsPM Peak ModelHOV Model201020002020 to presentGVRD Rapid Transit StudyEMME/224-Hr Demand ModelActive ModeAccessibilityReliability&AgglomerationFirst Screenline&Trip DiaryActivity-based ModelsExpo&Van-Richmond LineRegional Modeling ReviewMillennium,Evergreen Line

3、Richmond-AirportTrnp.Model Enhancement Prg.Transport 2040Transport 2050Tolling Studies(Gateway Program)New Mobility EV&AVWFHEquityTDM,Discounts&RebatesEarly RTMRTM2RTM3FORTRANRTM-RTSThe Regional Transportation Model(RTM)Traditional four-step model 9 trip purposes 24-hour demand model Nested Logit Tr

4、ip Mode Choice 3 assignment periods(AM,MD,PM)4 vehicle classes with 9 vot classes 7 transit modes Additional modules Regional trucks Car share CAV&TNC adoptions Uncertainty analysisConference on Innovations in Travel Analysis and PlanningTrip SimulationConference on Innovations in Travel Analysis an

5、d Planning Disaggregate trip outputs1.Simulated base year(SBY)with TD+RTM2.Simulated future year(SFY)with RTM+SBY destination choice is updated only if the original destination worsened(“stickiness”)Limitations No scheduling and a lack of temporal resolution Disaggregate output follows aggregate dis

6、tribution by segments Does not model behaviors explicitly Disaggregate data still carry any biases from the aggregate distributionsKey considerationsConference on Innovations in Travel Analysis and PlanningNeeds AssessmentDo we need a new model?Options EvaluationModel paradigmsModel platformsAction

7、PlanHow do we want to build this model?Needs Assessment Current Gaps Equity and affordability Temporal responsiveness Tours and resource constraints New mobility services New behaviors Demand management and advanced pricing strategies Telecommuting and Work from Home Appetite for Change Consistent s

8、upport from leadership Commitment at different stages of the development Stakeholder acceptance&local expertise Conformity with funding requirementsConference on Innovations in Travel Analysis and PlanningModeling Paradigms Trip based models Hybrid models HBD1 Synthetic population with disaggregate

9、long-term decisions and aggregate short-term decisions HBD2 HBD1+disaggregate postprocessing Activity-based modelsConference on Innovations in Travel Analysis and PlanningEvaluation of Modeling ParadigmsConference on Innovations in Travel Analysis and PlanningEvaluation of Modeling PlatformsConferen

10、ce on Innovations in Travel Analysis and PlanningWeight(1-10)CriteriaDescription9Licensing and supportAvailability of the software and our ability to obtain peer or commercial support9ConfigurabilityFlexible to develop new sub models to simulate behaviors unique to our region8User experience for dev

11、elopmentWorkflow of model development and its impact on and fit with existing practices8MaintainabilityTrack model changes and offers automated testing procedures 8Customer serviceAbility for our agency to obtain technical support8FlexibilityAbility to integrate with existing software and offer exte

12、nsibility7Features Perform population synthesis,estimation of models,type of models supported(MNL,NL,etc).6Custom scriptingAlter and run models programmatically to generate range of forecasts5Run TimeRun time for developing the model as well as applying it for planning studies5Model estimationAbilit

13、y to calibrate and estimate specific sub models given new data5DocumentationTraining resources for staff and consultants4User experience for applicationEase of running the model using existing software UI and ability to integrate the demand model into existing workflows4Maturity of the platform Succ

14、essful development of models using the platform in other regions4Cost of development Cost of licensing and support as well as development of a new activity-based demand modelAction Plan Program Plan Project Phases Data CollectionConference on Innovations in Travel Analysis and PlanningPhase 2 and be

15、yond:Outreach and model updatesData Collection:Trip Diary 2023Phase 1:initial round of model estimationsPhase 0:synthetic population,test model frameworkScoping:needs,and optionsWe are here2020 to 2021(completed)2021 to 2022(completed)2022 to 2023(in progress)2023 to 2024(in progress)Late 2024(not committed)