波士頓：2021建設一個有韌性的政府（英文版）（15頁）.pdf

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1、 2021 Boston Consulting Group1Building a Resilient GovernmentSEPTEMBER 08, 2021 By Daniel Acosta, Matthew Mendelsohn, Jaykumar Patel, Martin Reeves, and Lucie RobieuxThe pandemic wont be the last global crisis we face. Here are six principlespublic sector organizations should follow to prepare for f

2、uture disruptions.The COVID-19 pandemic has brought into sharp relief the importance ofgovernment resiliencethe capacity to absorb shocks, adapt, and then quicklythrive in an altered environment. As the virus spread around the globe last year,some governments managed the crisis relatively well, whil

3、e others struggled tomatch the moment. 2021 Boston Consulting Group2This lack of resilienceposes an increasingdanger, and not just interms of pandemicpreparedness. There is agrowing probability offuture global crises, withdisruptions morewidespread and longlasting than in previouseras. Such shocks a

4、re nearly inevitable given how profoundly connected the worldseconomies and societies have become; as the pandemic has shown, disruptions inone region can spread rapidly to others. We are equally vulnerable from atechnological standpointwith so much of modern life dependent upon digitalsystems, the

5、potential impact of a large-scale cyber attack is immense.Thats why governments should see the events of the last 18 months as a call toaction to strengthen their resilience. No doubt, the pandemic has tested the privatesector as well, with many companies demonstrating the ability to adapt to a newe

6、nvironment. But resilience is even more vital for public sector organizations. Thereare no alternatives to government, after all; when businesses fail consumers canturn to competitors, but when governments fail there is no backup. Governmentsthat focus on their own resilience, on the other hand, wil

7、l be able to supportresilience more broadly in the economy and in society as a whole.Based on our extensive work with private and public sector organizations, as wellas the study of resilience in natural systems, we have identified six characteristics ofresilient governments: prudence, modularity, r

8、edundancy, diversity, embeddedness,and adaptiveness. Certainly, governments must be proactive about averting criseswhen possible, including moving swiftly to drive decarbonization of theireconomies and head off the most severe impacts of climate change. But they mustsimultaneously incorporate these

9、six characteristics into their organizations. ThoseGovernments should see theevents of the last 18 monthsas a call to action tostrengthen their resilience. 2021 Boston Consulting Group3that do so will be well positioned to respond quickly and ensure the continueddelivery of services and resources to

10、 their citizens when shocks occur.PRUDENCEPrudence, as we define it, is the ability of governments to anticipate and preparefor different scenariosoperating on the principle that if something can plausiblyhappen, it eventually will.Governments can enhance this characteristic by conducting scenario-b

11、uilding andtabletop exercises to identify both high- and low-likelihood events. That riskidentification process should involve experts both from within and outside thecountry, state, or city conducting the exercise as well as from a variety of domains,including health, economics, geopolitics, scienc

12、es, and sociology.Governments should then plan and prepare for the most likely and high-impactevents. Risk management efforts should be undertaken at all levels of government,from the offices of the president or prime minister to ministerial or cabinet-leveloffices and down to the state and local le

13、vel. Central governments should alsoencourage collaboration and transparency across all levels of the public sector. Theyshould, for example, support local governments in developing their own resilienceby leading scenario exercises, sharing information and insights from those exerciseswith other loc

14、al governments, and coordinating planning related to national, state,and local responses.In recent years some governments have put a greater focus on risk management.The federal government in Australia, for example, conducted a scenario-planningexercise in 2018. The effort started with the identific

15、ation of megatrends,including climate change and the rise of AI, and an analysis of those trends thathad the greatest uncertainty in terms of direction, speed, and magnitude. Fromthere the government identified potential scenarios, success factors for eachscenario, and recommendations for how the go

16、vernment could close any gaps inpreparedness that were uncovered. The work was part of an overall effort tostrengthen Australian public service, and it has led to a number of changes. Among 2021 Boston Consulting Group4them: the development of anew model for digital skillsdevelopment and the creatio

17、nof the Australian PublicService Academy to helpemployees develop necessaryskills and expertise.MODULARITYModularity is a defining feature of a robust systemensuring that its componentsare loosely connected to avoid turning risk to individual components into systemicthreats.Governments operate as co

18、mplex systems, with thousands of individual actorsacross multiple agencies. Like most such systems, they can benefit from integrationand interdependency between components. However, this can also amplify risk:seemingly localized shocks or disruptions can rapidly spread throughout a system inways tha

19、t are hard to predict. Conventional wisdom around the efficiency gains ofcross-agency integration needs to be balanced against the importance of modularityfor systemic resilience. Governments are better able to withstand shocks when therisk of component-level failure is contained by design.Consider

20、the disparate impact of the 2007-2008 financial crisis in the US andCanada. In the US, a “localized” shock to the subprime lending market spreadcatastrophically to the entire global financial system. In Canada, by contrast, banksemerged largely unscathed from the crisis in part because regulation ma

21、ndatedlower exposure to the type of complex financial instruments that created hiddenconnectivity across firms in the U.S.REDUNDANCYRedundancy involves the creation of buffers to cushion against unexpected shocks.Governments that build this expanded capacity in areas such as IT, infrastructure,Risk

22、management effortsshould be undertaken at alllevels of government. 2021 Boston Consulting Group5energy, and operationsincluding emergency stockpiles of, for example, food,medical devices, and communication tools as well as plans for expanded publictransportation and housing solutions for displaced p

23、ersonswill be betterpositioned to respond to shocks, whether local or systemic.The Estonian government, a leader in moving the services it provides to citizensonto digital platforms, explored a number of options to create redundancy for thosedigital systems in the event of a physical or cyber attack

24、. The solution: thegovernment set up a “data embassy” in another countryLuxembourg. Theembassy houses a high-security data center that holds backups of Estonias mostcritical data and information.Building redundancy into systems can be challenging for governments, whichalmost always face pressure to

25、remain highly efficient on costs and spending. Thiscan lead to “overoptimization,” in which a government has little ability to expandcapacity when it needs to. Many governments, for example, have winnowed thenumber of suppliers they use to ensure vendors are selling at scale and therefore atthe best

26、 price. However, that makes their systems less resilient. The issue can becompounded if suppliers are concentrated outside a governments home country,exposing it to disruptions in supply chains due to natural disasters or trade wars.Given those pressures, governments should make the development of r

27、edundancyan explicit objectiveand communicate that objective broadly throughout theirorganizations. That can help shift the mindset of their workforces and limit theincidence of short-sighted decisions to overoptimize systems, capacities, and costs.Governments should make the development ofredundanc

28、y an explicit objectiveand communicatethat objective broadly throughout their organizations. 2021 Boston Consulting Group6Governments should also communicate this clearly to the public, explaining whyredundancy is critical and where investments in excess capacity have been made.That will help preven

29、t such investments from being characterized as wasteandtherefore minimize the likelihood of political blowback from citizens and others ingovernment. And as part of ongoing planning exercises, governments shouldidentify resources that can be redeployed from lower priority areas to help absorbshocks

30、elsewhere in their organizations.DIVERSITYGovernments with diverse operationsin areas such as talent, locations, and typesof contractshave a variety of options when responding to a crisis. But resilienceisnt just about responding well to crises. Its also about ongoing adaptability, whichrequires the

31、 kind of constant experimentation enabled by diversity.Consider diversity in the area of talent. Governments should cultivate a diverse setof skillsets throughout their organizations as a whole and minimizehyperspecialization in their workforces. Hyperspecialization, with employeesbecoming skilled a

32、t a narrow set of tasks or processes, reduces the ability ofworkers to step into other roles as needed during a crisis. And diversity strengthensan organizations response mechanisms beyond the ability to redeploy operationalcapacity. Adaptation to rapidly changing environments requires a wide repert

33、oire ofemerging solutions from which to select and amplifyand the variety of suchsolutions depends on the underlying heterogeneity of the people, ideas, and skillsets involved.Resilience requires the kind of constantexperimentation enabled by diversity. 2021 Boston Consulting Group7Governments can a

34、lso build diversity in skills, capabilities, and resources bydrawing upon partners such as companies and foundations as well as citizensthemselves. For example, deals can be struck with private clinics to provide surgecapacity in the event of a health care crisis. And governments can train citizenvo

35、lunteers who are able to provide support to civil servants, including those inhealth and defense departments, during a crisis.To support these sorts of collaborations, governments should ensure thatappropriate and agile legal frameworks are in place to allow them to strike flexiblecontracts with ven

36、dors, under which those suppliers can readily provide support ifneeded. In addition, governments should engage with and support communitypartners on an ongoing basisnot just during periods of crises when theirassistance is needed.The government of France was able to draw on both the private sector a

37、nd thepublic during the COVID-19 pandemic. Not only did the government tap retireddoctors and nurses to work in hospitals early in the crisis, but it also relied on thecooperation between public hospitals and the national railway company fordeveloping a plan for managing peaks in demand for health c

38、are. The resulting planinvolved outfitting high-speed trains to transport intensive care patients to regionsin western France that were less affected by the pandemic and where hospitals hadthe capacity to treat them. Since March of 2020, more than 1,000 patients have beentransported for treatment.AD

39、APTIVENESSAdaptiveness refers to the ability of a system to rapidly adjust to newcircumstances. Resilient governments can quickly adjust programs and policies,deploy resources where they are needed, and scale quickly when necessary. Inshort, adaptive governments need to be able to become truly itera

40、tive learners thatintentionally pursue what natural selection does in nature: create variations,conduct experiments, and amplify the successes.Governments should cultivate adaptiveness across a variety of activities: 2021 Boston Consulting Group8Many public sector organizations were successful in ad

41、apting to the dramaticallyaltered environment in the months after COVID-19 first erupted. In May of 2020,for example, Texas established Operation Connectivity, a task force to assess andidentify solutions for addressing the digital divide among the states students in thewake of the shift to remote i

42、nstruction. Based on insight from that task force, thestate moved quickly to deploy $900 million of combined funding from the CARESAct and state and local education agencies, executing a bulk order of roughly 4.5million devices for remote instruction. The devices not only helped students learnremote

43、ly during the pandemic but will also be used post-COVID to support studentinstruction. They should ensure they are adaptive in policymakingparticularly ineconomic and social areasand able to make changes quickly in response tofluctuating macro events. This adaptiveness requires robust and timely dat

44、a toidentify the most impactful measures. They should also build adaptiveness into budgeting so they can make rapidshifts in the allocation of funds. This, of course, can be challenging given thatgovernment budgets are set annually and typically have limited flexibility. Still,the COVID-19 crisis de

45、monstrated that many governments were able to passstimulus aid packages swiftlyadjusting budgetary rules and processes in somecasesto limit the economic hit of lockdowns. They need flexible human resources contracts, rules, and processes formanaging and deploying talent. For example, HR rules should

46、 allow staff withtransferrable skills who are willing to move to be quickly redeployed during acrisis, while encouraging the development of a diverse talent pipeline for thefuture. Finally, governments should actively pursue an agenda of policy and programexperimentation, piloting new models and ide

47、as from which to learn, iterate,and amplify. And mechanisms should be established to ensure that lessons andbest practices are shared in a way that enables the scaling of successfulprograms or efforts across different jurisdictions. 2021 Boston Consulting Group9At the same time, many countries in As

48、ia adjusted their policies and plans in 2020based on lessons learned from the SARS, H1N1, and MERS outbreaks. Japan andSouth Korea, for instance, revised emergency legal frameworks related topandemics and clarified responsibilities for central and local governments duringsuch emergencies.Ultimately,

49、 true adaptiveness is not merely about surviving an individual crisis. Itsabout learning from that crisis to better respond to the next one. As the pandemicrecedes, governments face the challenge of capturing and codifying lessons for thefuture.EMBEDDEDNESSEmbeddedness is the alignment of a governme

50、nts goals and activities with those ofthe broader economic or social systems they inhabit. Individual governmentagencies sit within a wider system of government; a government operates within anations economy and society, which in turn operate within the global economyand society as well as the natur

51、al environment. All of this makes it critical forgovernment organizations to ensure that their own long-term goals with respect toresilience are harmonized with those of the broader systems within which theyoperate.Creating alignment within government requires finding opportunities for win-wincollab

52、orations among different public organizations. When a crisis hits,governments therefore can swiftly bring together an effective team from theministries or departments that need to lead the response. For example, even beforethe first COVID-19 case was confirmed in Singapore, its central governmentest

53、ablished a dedicated taskforce that included the ministries of Health, NationalDevelopment, Communications and Information, Trade and Industry, Environmentand Water, Education, Home Affairs, Social and Family Development, andTransport. Central governments also should coordinate and align with leader

54、s inmajor cities, many of whom have extensively studied and prepared for a number ofpotential shocks. (See “Building a Resilient City.”) 2021 Boston Consulting Group10City leaders are increasingly focused on resilienceand for good reason.First, cities that have honed their resilience will be better

55、positioned torespond to increasingly frequent natural disasters. Second, efforts toimprove resilience also tend to reduce the strain on urban infrastructure andresources. Third, investments in resilience will minimize the economic hit toa city from a crisis.Tokyo, for example, refocused on its resil

56、ience in the wake of the 2011earthquake and tsunami. The city has deployed antiseismic devices,floodgates, and levees to reduce the risk of catastrophic flooding, funded inpart by the central government. The city now boasts the worlds tallestshock-absorbing broadcast tower to transmit information in

57、 the event of adisaster, and it has deployed an advance rain-measurement system toprovide early warning of potential flooding issues.Rotterdam, meanwhile, has taken steps to enhance the resilience of its largeport related to both physical and cyber events. The city created nine “waterplazas” to soak

58、 up excess rainfall, and it has developed digital systems tomonitor sea levels hourly and shut floodgates as needed. Rotterdam hasalso partnered with the private sector, including Microsoft, to reinforce theports cyber defenses.The success of cities like Tokyo and Rotterdam in enhancing resilience h

59、asrevealed a few valuable lessons. First, bringing in other government players,including central government stakeholders, increases the odds of success.Second, cities that invest in early warning systems to spot potential eventsearly will be able to respond quickly and effectively. Finally, R&Dpartn

60、erships with the private sector can create customized, high-impactresilience solutions.Alignment beyond the confines of government is just as critical. Public sectorleaders must find ways to cultivate strong, trust-based relationships with the privateBUILDING A RESILIENT CITY 2021 Boston Consulting

61、Group11sector and other societal playersfrom organizations with a global reach, such asNGOs and foundations, to smaller groups such as local citizens associationstiesthat should cultivated over time and not just during moments of crisis. Meanwhile,government can strengthen the overall resilience of

62、the public by promoting civicengagement, social cohesion, education, and the overall preparedness of citizens torespond to a crisis. Research by Daniel P. Aldrich, a professor at NortheasternUniversity, found that social cohesion and social networks helped communities inThailand, Japan, and New Zeal

63、and recover quickly from natural disasters.FIVE STEPS TO BUILDING GOVERNMENT RESILIENCEGovernment leaders typically invest time and energy into improving policies,programs, and processes with an eye toward delivering maximum value to thepublic. But many have not spent enough time thinking about resi

64、lience.Governments now have an opportunity to change thatto take stock of theirorganizations capacity to absorb shocks, learn from their performance during thepandemic, and build more capacityso they can thrive in the face of newdisruptions.There are five basic steps to this journey:Assess Resilienc

65、e. Governments should determine their overall level ofresilience and identify the most critical gaps.1.Build a Resilience Roadmap. With an understanding of where action isneeded, governments can build a plan for how to bolster resiliencea planthat should include a prioritization of initiatives and c

66、lear governance.2.Integrate Resilience in Critical Areas. Based on the roadmap, governmentcan launch a select number of high-priority initiatives and begin to generateearly wins. 3.Expand Resilience Across Government. With early successes todemonstrate the power of resilience, governments can push n

67、ew initiativesmore broadly across their organizations.4. 2021 Boston Consulting Group12As these resilience initiatives gain traction, governments will begin to drive afundamental change in mindsetone that is focused on preparing for unexpectedevents based on an understanding of the systems within wh

68、ich they operate. Such ashift will enable governments to better protect and support their citizens in an eraof rising disruption.The authors would like to thank Julia Baker, Tim Figures, Yasmine Gharaibeh, JosephHsiao, Meghan McQuiggan, Brendan OMara, Wenjing Pu, Verra Wijaya, and DavidZuluaga Marti

69、nez for their assistance in the development of this article.Go Beyond Mitigation to Reimagine the Future. While resilience requiressurvival and adaptation, the accelerating pace of disruption makes it critical forgovernments to become imagination machinesorganizations that canharness the power of im

70、agination to redefine the art of the possible andflourish in new, fast-evolving circumstances.5. 2021 Boston Consulting Group13AuthorsDaniel AcostaManaging Director & Senior PartnerLos AngelesMatthew MendelsohnSenior AdvisorTorontoJaykumar PatelManaging Director & PartnerDubaiMartin ReevesManaging D

71、irector & Senior Partner, Chairman of the BCG Henderson InstituteSan Francisco - Bay AreaLucie RobieuxKnowledge Expert, Team ManagerParisABOUT BOSTON CONSULTING GROUPBoston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle theirmost important challenges and capture their great

72、est opportunities. BCG was thepioneer in business strategy when it was founded in 1963. Today, we work closely withclients to embrace a transformational approach aimed at benefiting all stakeholdersempowering organizations to grow, build sustainable competitive advantage, and drivepositive societal

73、impact. 2021 Boston Consulting Group14Our diverse, global teams bring deep industry and functional expertise and a range ofperspectives that question the status quo and spark change. BCG delivers solutionsthrough leading-edge management consulting, technology and design, and corporate anddigital ven

74、tures. We work in a uniquely collaborative model across the firm andthroughout all levels of the client organization, fueled by the goal of helping our clientsthrive and enabling them to make the world a better place. Boston Consulting Group 2021. All rights reserved. For information or permission to reprint, please contact BCG at .To find the latest BCG content and register to receive e-alerts on this topic or others,please visit . Follow Boston Consulting Group on Facebook and Twitter. 2021 Boston Consulting Group15