安永：2024年主流電動汽車采用的六大要點（英文版）（61頁）.pdf

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1、Six essentials for mainstream EV adoptionA collaboration between:A collaboration between:2|EurelectricAbout this studyDisruptive geopolitics notably,the war in Ukraine,along with economic headwinds,supply chain disturbances,and climate and regulatory uncertainty are frustrating efforts to curb green

2、house gas emissions in the transport sector.Together,they highlight the fragile but interdependent relationships between six essential components of the e-mobilityvalue chain:a resilient supply chain,clean and green power,accessible charging infrastructure,a smart grid,digitalisation and skilled lab

3、our.At the same time,the EV industry is nearing an inflection point.Globally,EV sales doubled in 2021 and jumped 55%in 2022 to account for 13%of all vehicles sales.This trend looks set to continue,making mass-market adoption imminent.It will bring with it irreversible transformation in road transpor

4、t.But,if the rest of the ecosystem is neither ready nor sufficiently scaled,EV adoption could stutter and fail.This study examines the role and interaction of these six essentials and explores the need for a collaborative and coordinated response from ecosystem players in pursuit of decarbonisation

5、goals.It is informed by experts at the European energy industry body Eurelectric and its members.It is curated and augmented by EY professionals with extensive experience in energy,automotive,government and technology.It includes experiences and insights from global industry leaders in the ecosystem

6、 of supporting businesses,including automotive,utilities,fleet management,city planning and charging infrastructure,as well as experts from industry bodies and trade associations.We thank them for sharing their experiences and opinions so openly with us.3|EurelectricForewordBy 2035,in most developed

7、 economies,EVs will be the only choice for customers who want to buy a new car.Europe(EU 27 plus the UK and Norway),the US and China lead the charge.However,customer sentiment is split.Some customers take an interest in energy security and sustainability and want to play an active role in the future

8、 energy system.They are alert to solutions that cut petrol and gas consumption and deliver economic and environmental value.They are the early adopters,who have got behind EVs,boosting global sales to 13%of total vehicle sales.Other customers might like an EV or solar panels to offset the impact of

9、rising inflation and higher energy costs.But they are too expensive.Yet it is precisely these customers that EVs must reach if adoption is to accelerate,and the associated benefits of reduced carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions and a cleaner planet are to be realised.These mass-market consumers the next 60

10、%of drivers yet to be fully persuaded need a few ticks in the right boxes before they commit to a purchase.Then there is the remaining 20%,the reluctant adopters,who switch to EVs not because they want to,but because they have no choice.Sales figures paint a picture of an EV market gaining traction

11、globally.China is already at 27%EV adoption;Europe has seen two consecutive years of strong growth,reaching 17%in 2021 and just over 20%in 2022;the US is catching up.But are the conditions right for EVs to take off in the mass market?4|EurelectricForeword(cont.)Accelerated EV adoption must start wit

12、h setting the ambition and supporting it with mandates or regulation.If that happens,the market can advance with certainty and attract the investment needed to secure a resilient supply chain.And only then can EV costs begin to come down,making them more available and more affordable for all.But the

13、 vehicle itself is only part of the story.It must be supported by adequate charging infrastructure,in the places and spaces where people need it.It must be enabled by a smart grid that allows the two-way flow of green energy and supported by digital technologies that make EV ownership simple,flexibl

14、e and likeable.Get these essentials right,and e-mobility becomes the new normal for road transport.Regulators devise the right frameworks.Automakers deliver new powertrains.And utility companies will play a huge role in pushing this fast-maturing industry past the inflection point and into mass adop

15、tion.They must engage proactively with city planners and continue to build out networks that allow renewables,and other forms of distributed assets,to connect to the grid.They must manage new load at the point of charging and pursue new technologies that enable the two-way flow of energy across the

16、system.EV numbers will continue to rise,a consequence of market dynamics and technological,regulatory and economic drivers.But,as we speed towards the point of no return,utility companies must continue to play their critical role in delivering the EV solution.5|EurelectricThe EV market in numbers26.

17、8mn26.8mnglobal EV stock in 202213%13%o of all new cars sold in 2022 were electric10.5mn 10.5mn G Global BEV and PHEV sales in 2022 Where we areWhere we are 300300 battery gigafactoriesin construction or planned around the world with 30 in Europe2121 EU Member States offered incentives for the purch

18、ase of EVs at the end of 2022,up from 17 in 2021480k 480k publicly accessible charging points in Europe139139 tariffs and services available in Europe for EV smart chargingUS$1.2tn US$1.2tn committed by OEMs through 2030 on EVs,batteries and materials20352035 ban on the sale of new ICE vehicles in t

19、he EU52%52%consumers plan to buy and EV as their next vehicleGrowing consumer acceptanceGrowing consumer acceptance38%38%of consumers state environmental concernsas the mainreason for choosing electricconsumers are willing to pay a premium for EV premium for EV Bottlenecks/pain pointsBottlenecks/pai

20、n pointsavailability of charging stations are the main barriers to EV purchase,followed by range anxiety and costUpfront cost of EVs is 30%30%higher than the equivalent average ICE vehicle90%90%34%34%5mn5mnPublic chargerswill be needed in Europe by 203514.5mn14.5mnBy 2030,EY estimates that sales of

21、BEVs and PHEVs will make up over half of global vehicle sales.That is three years sooner than predicted in 2021.In Europe,that could rise as high as 74%and,in the US,43%.EV sales in Europe will surpass other powertrains by 2027.Developing EV ecosystemDeveloping EV ecosystemGlobal EV Sales for 2022,E

22、V-Volumes,2022“Zero emission vehicles:first Fit for 55 deal will end the sale of new CO2 emitting cars in Europe by 2035”,European Commission,28 October 2022Overview Electric vehicles:tax benefits&purchase incentives in the European Union(2022),ACEA,2022EY Mobility Lens Forecaster 2022The time is no

23、w:smart charging of electric vehicles,RAP,2022EY Mobility Consumer Index 2022EU alternative fuel infrastructure,European Alternative Fuels Observatory,European Commission,accessed 15 February 2023“Exclusive:Automakers to double spending on EVs,batteries to$1.2 trillion by 2030”,Reuters,2022EY Chargi

24、ng Infrastructure Forecast 2023Sources:projected BEV and PHEV sales in 20236|EurelectricThe global outlook for e-mobility017|EurelectricEV sales are resilientOrdinarily,economic headwinds,a cost-of-living crisis and rising energy costs would weaken growth in a new market segment.But that didnt hold

25、true for EVs in 2022.On the customer side,higher energy costs impacted prices at the charging station.Whether at home or on the public network,it cost more to charge an EV in 2022 than in 2021.British roadside assistance company RAC said the cost of rapid public charging in the UK increased by 42%be

26、tween May and September 2022.1 On the industry side,the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine disrupted global supply chains.Shortages of chips and escalating prices for semiconductors derailed automakers production processes,forcing them to scale back EV rollout.8|EurelectricEV sales are resilie

27、nt(cont.)Yet the market continued its upward trajectory.Growth was driven by multiple factors:Regulators provided certainty in the future e-mobility direction with commitments and targets.More countries pledged to phase out sales of new internal combustion engine(ICE)vehicles or set ambitious electr

28、ification targets for the coming decades.Global EV subsidies and incentives reached US$30bn by the end of 2021 and carried over into 2022.2In Europe,nearly all Member States now offer some form of fiscal support to stimulate market uptake of EVs.3Strong societal and political urgency to decarbonise

29、was bolstered by renewed focus on the security of local energy supply and the role of EVs in reducing dependency on fossil fuels.Global automakers continued to buy into e-mobility,committing investments of nearly US$1.2tn by 2030 to production facilities,technology,EV batteries,new products and the

30、future supply of raw materials(primarily semiconductors and battery materials).4Utility investment in EV infrastructure and customer programmes continued to grow,driven by customer demand,revenue opportunities and sustainability goals.59|EurelectricA bumper year for e-mobilityEV uptake is accelerati

31、ng much faster than anticipated.We are already moving into mass-market adoption.Globally,in 2022,10.5 million new battery EVs(BEVs)and plug-in electric hybrids(PHEVs)were delivered,an increase of more than 55%on 2021,making up 13%of all light-duty vehicles(LDVs)sold.6EV stock grew 60%to 26.8 million

32、:China is already at 27%EV sales penetration.In 2022,it accounted for 59%of global EV sales.Despite COVID-19 lockdowns and supply chain disruptions,electric passenger vehicle sales increased 82%on 2021.7There are now 15 million EVs on the road in China.In Europe,EV sales accounted for just over 20%o

33、f total vehicles sold in 2022,up from 17%in 2021.In total,2.7 million were sold.There are now eight million EVs in Europe.8In the US,EV sales grew 48%in 2022,topping 1.1 million vehicles for the first time.Source:EV Volumes-Global EV Sales for 2022 2,33,40,70,32,76,21,10,6EuropeChinaNorth AmericaOth

34、ers20212022+15+15%+82%+82%+48+48%+89%+89%Million+55%+55%Growth in total EV sales in 2022 BEV and PHEV sales and%growth for BEV and PHEV sales and%growth for 2022 vs.2021(million)2022 vs.2021(million)10|EurelectricEV demand driversIndustry commentators,in discussion with EY analysts,point to reasons

35、why the EV industry globally has not succumbed to external market headwinds.CO2emissions rulesAmbitious targets for reducing tailpipe emissions of new cars,vans and trucksBan on ICE vehiclesEffective ban on the sale of new fossil fuel cars from 2035 in many countriesChanging consumer attitudesGrowin

36、g customer confidence in EVs and infrastructure supports increased salesMore vehicle choiceBetter performance,range and total cost of ownership parity with ICE vehiclesFinance incentivesGovernment support for EVs through incentives,rebates,tax credits for consumersElectric powertrain shiftAutomakers

37、 committing to an electrified futureSource:EY analysis11|EurelectricDriver back electricSupportive regulation,better vehicle choice,shortened charging times and better understanding of e-mobility technology are winning over customers.So,too,is the environmental argument.The EY Mobility Consumer Inde

38、x9finds environmental concerns are the main reason for choosing electric(38%),with penalties on gasoline vehicles also a persuading factor(34%).The EY Mobility Consumer Index also finds that:Fifty-two percent of respondents are leaning towards a fully electric,PHEV or hybrid vehicle as their next pu

39、rchase up from 20%in 2020.This is the first time that the balance has tipped in favour of EVs.Preferences for fully electric cars have tripled,from 7%in 2020 to 20%in 2022.The geographical split has narrowed.European customers are most likely to buy an EV(55%),compared with 54%in the Asia-Pacific re

40、gion and 39%in North America.Twenty-seven percent of respondents say the upfront cost of an EV is a concern,down from 50%in 2021.Fifty-four percent of EV owners say retail locations are the most convenient non-residential places to charge.People are quick to worry.What about my once-a-year,1,000-mil

41、e trip to San Tropez?The everyday reality is that we drive to the supermarket,pop in on mum and dad,visit friends.Most of the time,were doing small trips around town,and were certainly not using huge amounts of range in one go and when we do,we can rely on rapid charging on the way.Natalie BerryPubl

42、ic Affairs Manager,Fastned“12|EurelectricDriver back electric(cont.)Top motivations for buying an EVTop motivations for buying an EVEnvironment is the top motivator for consumers buying an EV30%41%52%7%12%20%7%10%10%16%19%21%202020212022Fully electric/plug-in hybridFully electricPlug-in hybridHybrid

43、52%of car buyers are leaning towards non-ICE vehicle for their next purchase EV buying intent EV buying intent%of respondents planning%of respondents planning to buy a carto buy a car24%25%25%34%38%EVs have nowlonger rangeMonetaryincentivesLower cost ofownershipRising penaltyon ICEEnvironmentalconce

44、rnsSource:EY Mobility Consumer Index 2022Source:EY Mobility Consumer Index 202213|EurelectricMomentum builds in commercial marketBy 2050,medium-and heavy-duty vehicles are predicted to achieve net-zero global emissions.Government and corporate efforts to electrify transport provide a solid basis for

45、 growth in commercial EV sales.Penetration is likely to increase to around 5%in 2023,up from 3%in 2022 and 1%in 2021.China leads the way.It will account for around 30%of commercial EV sales in 2023.Germany and France can each expect 7%,with the rest of Europe likely to account for 15%.The US will tr

46、ail at 6%.Overall,around one million commercial EVs are expected on the roads globally in 2023.10Short-haul trucks,which typically travel within a 250-kilometre radius and cover around 50 kilometres per day,and light commercial vehicles can be charged in depots,making them good candidates for electr

47、ification.The number of EV models is increasing,and costs are improving:In the US,EV demand already outstrips supply in the commercial sector.This is due,in large part,to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)and other initiatives.They have pushed down the total cost of ownership(TCO),calculated on a

48、 dollar-per-mile basis,making EV trucks and vans cheaper than ICE equivalents.Across the EU,data from Transport&Environment11suggests that light commercial vehicles have already reached,or will reach,TCO parity with diesel when purchase subsidies are included.The average electric van is now 25%cheap

49、er than the average diesel van.14|EurelectricHeavy-duty potential(cont.)More electric heavy-duty vehicle(eHDV)models are now available,with electric buses and trucks becoming competitive on a TCO basis.In Europe,national and city-level targets12for public procurement of zero-emission buses,as well a

50、s the EU Clean Vehicles Directive,13are boosting electric bus sales.Meanwhile,designated routes and mandated driver breaks should make it relatively straightforward to locate truck and bus charging facilities at appropriate intervals along major highways,subject to land availability and grid capacit

51、y.eHDV sales will pick up gradually as battery density improves and demand from long-haul trucking grows.Successful deployment will depend on proof of economic and societal benefits,growing driver familiarity with EVs,and advances in technology,as well as charging infrastructure that can cater for r

52、eturn-to-base operations.Around 15,000 eHDVs were sold globally in 2022,up 88%year on year.In 2023,sales of approximately 33,000 vehicles are expected,up 116%year on year.Of total commercial EV sales in 2023,eHDVs will account for around 3%.1415|EurelectricHeavy-duty potential(cont.)HDVs travel on a

53、verage 62,000 miles 62,000 miles(99,800 kms)annually,5.5x the distance travelled by a typical passenger car.5.5x 5.5x distance travelledThe energy usage required for eHDVs can range from 0.5 kWh to 5.2 0.5 kWh to 5.2 kWh per mile compared with 0.2 kWh to 0.4 kWh per milekWh per mile compared with 0.

54、2 kWh to 0.4 kWh per mile for light-duty EVs.Up to 13x Up to 13x energy usageCharging HDVs at more than one megawatt is 4x the charging 4x the charging capacitycapacity of a Tesla Model 3.4x 4x charging capacity8080 100 mins 100 mins to reach 60%80%of state of charge for an HDV compared with 20compa

55、red with 20 30 minutes30 minutes for a light-duty vehicle.3x3xtypical charge timeNeed for heavy charging cables with increased size and complexity(i.e.,increased weight and cost),or increased charging voltage.increased weight and cost),or increased charging voltage.Complex and heavy Complex and heav

56、y charging cablesCharacteristics of electric LDVs and HDVsCharacteristics of electric LDVs and HDVsSource:EY analysisOur mission is to build 1,700 charge points at publicly accessible truck charging pools alongside Europes major highways within the next five years well ahead of the market demand.We

57、expect the battery-electric heavy-duty truck fleet in Europe to grow to more than one million vehicles in the next 10 years.Koen NoyensHead of Public Affairs,Milence“16|EurelectricConditions align for self-sustaining EV industry(cont.)We are moving from an incentive and policy-led market to one that

58、 is self-sustaining and backed by customer demand.It is helped by price corrections for critical minerals,following record highs in 2022,which will feed through into cheaper batteries and more affordable vehicles.As supply catches up with demand,global sales of plug-in and fully electric vehicles wi

59、ll climb from 10.5 million in 2022 to 14.3 million in 2023:15 In China,EV subsidies have mostly expired.Yet the China Passenger Car Association projects aggressive uptake,with 8.5 million passenger EV sales in 2023,equivalent to around 32%of vehicles sales,and up more than 30%on 2022.16In Europe,EV

60、sales are projected to climb 30%in 2023 as supply chain bottlenecks ease.Customers who pre-ordered in 2022,to take advantage of existing EV incentives,will boost 2023 sales figures.Momentum is already building.January 2023 registrations of BEVs and PHEVs accounted for 17%of new vehicle sales.17Germa

61、ny,which cut its EV subsidies at the beginning of 2023,prompting a flurry of last-minute purchases in December 2022,expects to see its EV sales increase 26%over 2022.18In the US,the IRA will help boost sales of passenger EVs to 36 million vehicles by 2030,19up from 2.4 million in 2021.20New and used

62、 EVs,and both passenger and non-passenger vehicles,are eligible for IRA tax credits.Source:EV Volumes17|EurelectricBEV and PHEV sales and outlook for 2023(millions)BEV and PHEV sales and outlook for 2023(millions)14.3mn14.3mnTotal EV projected sales in 2023 3,42,30,70,36,86,22,61,10,610,58,13,41,91.

63、014,3ChinaWest and CentralEuropeNorth AmericaRest of worldGlobal202120222023eConditions align for self-sustaining EV industry(cont.)Source:EV Volumes-Global EV Sales for 2022 and Global EV Sales for 2021The priority is system change and the alignment of conditions across the fiscal,financial,technic

64、al and regulatory landscapes.You can have progress in each of these,but you need to prove that together it is cohesive and harmonious and orchestrated in a way that makes sense.Lucie MatteraSecretary General,ChargeUp Europe“18|EurelectricEV sales to make up more than half of total sales by 2030The E

65、Y Mobility Lens Forecaster21estimates that battery EV sales in Europe will surpass other powertrains by 2027.It is a trend that will be mirrored in China and the US by 2030.Compared with 2021 predictions,Europe and China are already one year ahead of where they expected to be;the US is four years ah

66、ead.By 2030,EY estimates that sales of BEVs and PHEVs will make up half of the global total.That is three years sooner than predicted in 2021.Electric light vehicles sales forecast,by region,Electric light vehicles sales forecast,by region,20202020 4040EV sales expected to outstrip all other engine

67、sales by 2030EV sales expected to outstrip all other engine sales by 2030Global EV sales 50%by 2030Source:EY Mobility Lens Forecaster 20220%20%40%60%80%100%2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040ChinaEuropeUSThe direction of travel is clear;the road ahead is not.The phase-out of ICE v

68、ehicles starts in 2035.It might seem a long way off,but we cant just kick the can down the road and act once the deadline gets closer.We need to start moving now,for the sake of the climate,but also to ensure that this transition is smooth and maximises the benefits for all.Dominic PhinnSenior Polic

69、y Manager,The Climate Group“19|EurelectricCosts must come down for mass-market EV adoptionGlobally,automakers are investing billions in electric powertrains.Greater investment translates into greater vehicle choice.At the end of 2021,more than 450 electric car models were available globally.In the U

70、S alone,134 models will go on sale in 2024,more than double the 2021 figures.22EVs have moved beyond the luxury segment,with more offerings now available at lower price points.But cost remains a barrier to adoption and risks creating a societal divide:EVs are 27%more expensive in Europe(55,800)and 4

71、3%more expensive in the US(63,900)than their ICE equivalents.There are no EVs available for less than 20,000 in Europe or the US today.23In China,where EVs tend to be smaller than in other markets,and cost less to develop and manufacture,vehicles costing less than 15,000 make up almost 20%of its tot

72、al EV offering.20|EurelectricCosts must come down for mass-market EV adoption(cont.)The TCO gap must be communicated and understood if EVs are to find their appeal in the mass market.Though more expensive upfront than ICE equivalents,EVs are cheaper to operate over the lifetime of the vehicle.And go

73、vernment subsidies,while still available,can be as much as 20%of the purchase price of an EV.24Other incentives,like road access privileges and dedicated parking spaces,make a strong case for switching to EVs too:EVs are two to four times more efficient than ICE vehicles,so driving the same distance

74、 costs considerably less,creating ongoing fuel cost savings.EVs have fewer moving parts than ICE vehicles,so less can go wrong and less maintenance is needed.Policy thinktank Energy Innovation estimates that the TCO for EV owners is,on average,6,000 lower than for ICE owners over the vehicles lifeti

75、me.25We need more visibility for the overwhelmingly positive aspects of electric mobility and EV charging.We need to talk more about how easy and fun it is to drive an EV and how simple and convenient it is to charge it.Todays public discourse often revolves around presumed limitations in available

76、renewable energy and charging infrastructure.However,these fears are not reflected in the real world.We need to share the positive experiences.Stephan Wunnerlich,Senior Manager,e-mobility,EnBW“21|EurelectricRegulation sets directionRegulation is a big lever for EV adoption,giving confidence to consu

77、mers,automakers and investors about the direction of travel.In Europe,regulatory interventions build towards 2035,when bans on the sale of new ICE vehicles come into effect in many jurisdictions:The Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation(AFIR)ensures that the switch to low-carbon or zero-carbon

78、 road travel is supported by adequate charging infrastructure.The Renewable Energy Directive requires 32%of energy consumed in Europe by 2030 to be renewable.The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive(EPBD)aims to improve energy efficiency in buildings and reduce carbon production.It also include

79、s provisions for EV charging in buildings and the“right to plug.”CO2 emission performance standards set mandatory reduction targets for cars,vans and HDVs.Theres the issue of land.Does the ecology ministry have a problem using five hectares of land for HDV charging and associated renewable generatio

80、n?Probably.What are the environmental impacts of using land for this purpose,as opposed to other purposes?These,for sure,will be the questions we debate in the coming years around dedicated eHDVcharging locations.Aaron FishboneDirector of Public Policy,GreenWayNetwork“22|EurelectricRegulation sets d

81、irection(cont.)In the US,California leads.It has voted in favour of banning sales of new ICE vehicles by 2035.Already,16%of new vehicles sold in the state are either zero-emission vehicles(ZEVs)or PHEVs.And six states,which are home to 20%of the medium-and heavy-duty fleet in the US,have adopted Cal

82、ifornias Advanced Clean Trucks(ACT)rule.It requires manufacturers of Class 2b-8 vehicles to sell zero-emissions vehicles as an increasing percentage of their annual sales from 2024 to 2035.26The IRA and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law further incentivise EV sales in the US.More packages are anticipate

83、d this year,including US$80bn to support the EV battery supply chain.We cant wait until 2035 and say,ok,now we go 100%electric.We need clearly defined interim steps,with a trajectory towards 2035.Philippe VangeelSecretary General,The European Association for Electromobility(AVERE)“23|EurelectricRegu

84、lation sets direction(cont.)Declared Green Growth Strategy Green Growth Strategy 100%EV in passenger LDV sales by 2035JPY100bnJPY100bn to support factories for advanced batteries Doubled its subsidies for passenger ZEVs registered from December 2020150k charging points by 2030CO2 emissions target fo

85、r cars:15%15%reduction from 2025 onwards and 37.5%37.5%reduction from 2030 onwards13mn13mn passenger ZEV stock by 2025 and 30mn30mn by 2030Ban on ICE sales by 203520351mn1mn publicly accessible charging stations by 2025 and 3mn3mn by 2030Key EU directives and regulations for EV adoption include:Alte

86、rnative Fuels Infrastructure Directive;European Energy Performance of Buildings Directive and Batteries RegulationSource:EY analysisCanadaCanada:In March 2022,CA$1.7bn,CA$1.7bn announced for ZEVs incentivesZEVs incentives as part of the ERPFederal budget to include an investment of CA$2bnCA$2bn for

87、accelerating production and processing of critical minerals required for EV battery supply chainbattery supply chainGermanyGermany targets 10mn EVs by 2030EV purchase subsidysubsidy extended to 9k9kInvestment of 2.5bn2.5bn for expansion of EV charging infra and battery cell productionBan ICE sales,t

88、argets 300k public charging stations by 2030Under UKs ATF up to 1bn UKs ATF up to 1bn investment in developing a high-value end-to-end electrified automotive supply chainFunding of 500mn500mn during 202124 for mass-scale EV battery production and 1.3bn 1.3bn for charging infrastructureSouth Korea sa

89、nctioned Korean New Deal with budget of up to US$17mn US$17mn for electric cars in 2021 and up to US$33.5mn US$33.5mn for hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehiclesSouth Korea aims to commercialise lithiumlithium-sulphur batteries sulphur batteries by 2025,andlithium-metal batteries by 2028Faster Adoption

90、 and Manufacturing of Hybrid and EV(FAME IIFAME II)scheme outlays INR86bnINR86bn for purchase of EVs and INR10bnINR10bnfor supporting charging infrastructureIncentive of US$2.5bn US$2.5bn to promote manufacturing of a advanceddvancedchemistry chemistry c cell ell b batteriesatteriesThe New Energy Au

91、tomobile Industry New Energy Automobile Industry PlanPlan targets 20%of vehicle sales to be ZEVs by 2025ChinaChina plans to build charging stations for 20mn EVs 20mn EVs by 2025,accordingto the National Developmentand Reform CommissionBEV/PHEV/FCEVs to make up 50%50%of USUS sales by 20302030Governme

92、nts plans to replace its fleet of 650K650K vehicles with EVsEVsInvestment of US$7.5bn US$7.5bn in both public charging infrastructure and electric busesBuild a national network of 500,000 500,000 EV chargers EV chargers across 35 statesKey transport policies and targets by countriesKey transport pol

93、icies and targets by countries24|EurelectricPut the customer at the heart of transformationAs the adoption curve accelerates,and the EV-buying demographic shifts from a niche audience to a larger group of consumers with more mainstream values and expectations,the evolving EV ecosystem must pivot aro

94、und:Cheaper and more affordable vehicles that provide equal or improved performanceBrands with which the audience identifies,and which deliver services and products that are relevant and easy to consumeAccessible and conveniently located charging infrastructure which is available for allOnly by stru

95、cturing the EV ecosystem around the customer can e-mobility establish itself as the new normal for road transport.Source:EY Knowledge Analysis,EY Mobility Consumer IndexDriving an EV is an entirely different ball game to driving an ICE vehicle.Youre dealing with kilowatt hours,not gallons or litres.

96、You dont fill up at a designated location,but charge at home,in the street,wherever you park,whenever you want.It requires a very different mindset.People are not yet aware of the possibilities;they dont know what the new system will look like in the future.But whatever it looks like,it must work fo

97、r the customer.Andrew HorsteadEY Global Energy&Resources Lead Analyst“25|EurelectricPut the customer at the heart of transformation(cont.)Source:EY Knowledge Analysis,EY Mobility Consumer IndexCustomer concerns about switching to EVsCustomer concerns about switching to EVs26%27%33%34%Ability to char

98、geat homeHigh upfront costRange anxietyLack of publiccharging stationsIts relatively easy to identify where public charging points should be sited.Look at the concentration of traffic.For decades,petrol stations have been located where the demand is,and thats where charging points should be installe

99、d too,besides private charging points at homes,offices and shopping areas where the vehicles are located most of the time.Petr DolejsiMobility&Sustainable Transport Director,European Automobile Manufacturers Association(ACEA)“Source:EY Mobility Consumer Index 202226|EurelectricSix essentials for acc

100、elerating e-mobility transition0227|EurelectricWhat industry must get right for mass-market EV adoptionWe are nearing the inflection point in the irreversible evolution of transport.Geographic,technological,legislative and economic drivers show us the direction of travel.However,the transition itsel

101、f hinges on six essentials.And we must get them right.Skilled labourFinding and training the next-generation workforceResilient supply chainScaling EV production with resilient supply chainsClean and green powerFaster permitting to accelerate renewables growthDigitalisationDigital platforms and mobi

102、le applications to optimise EV chargingAccessible charging infrastructureAccessible and conveniently located charging infrastructureA smart gridThe integration of EVs with smart grid technologySix critical“essentials”to accelerateEV adoptionSource:EY analysis28|EurelectricResilient supply chain Resp

103、onse to mineral shortages needed if EV production is to scaleThe EV market is gaining traction but is hampered by supply chain constraints.It competes with other energy transition technologies for critical minerals and raw materials that are needed in manufacture.Tightened supply drives up prices,cr

104、eating challenges for automakers in meeting EV production targets and,ultimately,in delivering affordable vehicles.01050100150200Conventional carsElectric carsCopperLithiumNickelManganeseCobaltGraphiteRare earthsOthersSource:IEA 2022;Minerals used in electric cars compared to conventional cars,https

105、:/www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/minerals-used-in-electric-cars-compared-to-conventional-cars,License:CC BY 4.0,International Energy Agency,2022EV critical mineral demand compared with conventional ICE vehicles(minerals kg/vehicle)EV critical mineral demand compared with conventional ICE veh

106、icles(minerals kg/vehicle)Demand increase in critical Demand increase in critical metals and minerals metals and minerals between 2019 and 2030between 2019 and 203010 x10 x9x9x14x14x3x3x3x3x10 x10 xNANANANA29|EurelectricResilient supply chain Batteries are critical to the EV transitionBatteries are

107、critical to the EV transitionTo reduce their dependency on imports of raw materials and batteries,primarily from China,countries in Europe and the US are shifting to domestic or local solutions:Automakers are scaling investments and signing long-term contracts in the upstream battery market and alon

108、g the battery value chain to guarantee the supply of critical minerals.Investment in gigafactories is focused on battery recycling,advanced battery chemistries to reduce reliance on minerals and metals,and enhanced battery density and performance.01Source:Bloomberg,IHS,Reuters,EY-Parthenon Analysis3

109、0|EurelectricResilient supply chain By addressing the availability and cost of raw materials in the supply chain,battery prices should fall,allowing automakers tobring down vehicle costs and scale EV adoption into the mass market.01Source:Based on IHS Feb 2022 data excluding net exports and with upl

110、ift correction for new announced OEM demand,Bloomberg,IHS Feb 2022,Reuters,EY-Parthenon research and analysisEuropean EV battery supplyEuropean EV battery supply-demand outlook(2020demand outlook(2020-2028e,GWh)2028e,GWh)384912422126135547755664343711723104666157589221.1162020a2021a2022e2023e2024e20

111、25e2026e2027e2028eEU supplyEU demandDespite increasing local capacity announcements,a supply deficit is still forecast which has created a race for capacity and opportunities across the value chain31|EurelectricResilient supply chain 01Ways to create a resilient supply chain Ways to create a resilie

112、nt supply chain Leverage private investment in sustainable mining of key battery metals.Ensure clear and rapid permitting procedures to avoid potential supply bottlenecks.Accelerate innovation in alternative battery chemistries that require smaller amounts of critical minerals.Expand battery recycli

113、ng.Strengthen cooperation between producer and consumer countries.Promote environmentally and socially sustainable practices and encourage knowledge sharing.Ensure traceability of key EV components.32|Eurelectric050100150200250ConventionalvehicleConventionalvehicleBEVBEVBEVClean and green powerEVs t

114、o become biggest consumers of renewable energy Clean energy makes transport cleaner.But currently,just over 3%of the transport sector runs on renewable energy.And most of that is biofuels.With global electricity demand predicted to increase more than twenty-fold by 2030 compared with 2021 levels,27E

115、Vs may become the biggest buyers of clean electricity.However,to work efficiently and to decarbonise the grid,there must first be adequate renewables availability.Globally,governments are taking steps to expedite the transition to cleaner-and lower-carbon generation,improving local energy security a

116、nd reducing costs to consumers in the long run.The US aims for 100%carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035.The EUs REPowerEU plan aims to remove hydrocarbons from its energy mix by scaling and speeding up renewable energy supply.It proposes to increase its headline 2030 target for renewables from

117、40%to 45%.28Source:Range of life-cycle CO2 emissions for different vehicle and fuel types,European Environment Agency,https:/www.eea.europa.eu/signals/signals-2017/infographics/range-of-life-cycle-co2/view,Last modified 23 November 202002Range of lifecycle CORange of lifecycle CO2 2emissions for dif

118、ferent emissions for different vehicle and fuel types(COvehicle and fuel types(CO2 2g/km)g/km)100%coal 100%coal electricityelectricity(indicative)Mixed electricityMixed electricity(based on EU avg.)Renewable Renewable electricityelectricityPetrolPetrolDieselDieselCO2exhaust emissionsFuel productionV

119、ehicle production and disposal33|EurelectricClean and green power02Its not just about connecting to electricity but proving that the electricity we use to charge the vehicle is coming from renewable sources.It is important to the sustainability of transport and to urbanisation.Maria AndreevaGlobal e

120、Mobility Marketing Strategy Leader,Schneider Electric“Ways to decarbonise the gridWays to decarbonise the gridAdopt an electrification strategy.Develop a detailed,quantitative pathway to decarbonise the power sector substantially.Address permitting barriers.Develop a flexibility market to manage int

121、ermittency of non-dispatchable power.Integrate distributed energy generation(DERs)to enable local energy generation,energy storage or consumption management.Integrate smart digital solutions to enable DER owners to monitor and manage their resources in real time.Tackle critical materials supply chai

122、n issues.34|EurelectricAccessible charging infrastructureMaking charging infrastructure accessible and convenient for allThe average EV battery range is currently 326 kilometres.29That is more than enough for everyday use,as passenger cars travel,on average,45 kilometres a day.30And most drivers aro

123、und 80%charge at home or at work.31However,full-scale EV commercialisation depends on a public network of direct current(DC)fast chargers for the 20%of drivers who cant charge at home or at work,as well as for long-distance drivers and those in need of a quick top-up.Within the next 10 to 15 years,c

124、harging infrastructure must be deployed across home,work and public environments,and cater for fleet and commercial use cases too.Deployment must also address the uneven distribution of charging points.Five countries Germany,France,Italy,the UK and the Netherlands account for 71%of all European char

125、ging locations.In the US,the pace of current installation needs to be trebled to meet the goal of installing 500,000 public chargers by 2030.32Source:EAFO,EY Knowledge Analysis03EV adoption depends on improved access to EV adoption depends on improved access to charging infrastructurecharging infras

126、tructureFor 34%of global consumers,lack of charging infrastructure inhibited an EV purchase in 2022.At the grid level,long permitting processes,compounded by lengthy bureaucracy,inadequate coordination between distribution system operators(DSOs)and public authorities,and a lack of digitised and stan

127、dardised procedures,prolong lead times for installing charging infrastructure.Installation risks favouring high-income households with access to home charging over lower-income residents in multi-unit dwellings with potentially reduced access to charging facilities.35|Eurelectric71%71%of all public

128、charge points are in just five European countriesNetherlandsGermanyFranceUKItaly343,000482,000Accessible charging infrastructureSource:EU alternative fuel infrastructure,European Alternative Fuels Observatory,European Commission,accessed 15 February 202303EV public charge points in EuropeEV public c

129、harge points in Europe7 7EU27 countries have fewer than 1,200 charge pointsCities are leading the upscale of e-mobility.The concern,mostly,is whether we want chargers in our city centresor outside our city centres,aligned with parking policies.And,if we want them in the city centre,where do we put t

130、hem,so they do not compromise public space and so that they are accessible for all and that theres equity in their distribution?Pedro GomesProject Manager&Coordinator,Polis“36|EurelectricEurope needs 5.2 million nonEurope needs 5.2 million non-residential chargers by 2030residential chargers by 2030

131、Today,Europe has more than 482,000 publicly accessible charging points,and that number is growing.In the past year,the number of DC chargers has increased by 90%.Now,given the accelerated adoption of EVs,the rollout of infrastructure must keep pace.More chargers are needed and sooner than previously

132、 estimated.By 2025,EY estimates that 1 million public charge points will be needed,including at go-to destinations,such as shopping centres,as well as more than 600,000 workplace chargers.These numbers,which come on top of domestic demand for chargers,are based on the expected size of the EV fleet,a

133、verage daily distance travelled and vehicle battery size.By 2030,2.8 million public charge points,and 2.4 million workplace chargers,will be needed.To get close,approximately 670,000 new charge points are needed every year or 13,000 per week.By 2040,the total number of residential,workplace and publ

134、ic chargers needed in Europe will top 140 million to service an estimated 239 million EVs.Around 350bn investment will be needed to cover hardware and installation costs,on top of any grid or distribution system upgrades.33Though a significant challenge,rollout can be accelerated by removing regulat

135、ory barriers,improving access to land for infrastructure,and enabling faster passage via the permitting and processing channels at local authority level.At the utility level,more timely grid connections will support faster rollout.Accessible charging infrastructure03Not all cities are equipped to ex

136、pedite the permitting process for charging infrastructure.They are understaffed and cant deal with the volume of requests.This is one of their main struggles.So how can we respond quickly to demand for permitting,while making sure that the interests of the city are met?Pedro GomesProject Manager&Coo

137、rdinator,Polis“37|Eurelectric20232025203020352040Private:WorkplacePublic:On-the-go/Overnight+DestinationPublic and workplace EV charging infrastructure(million charging Public and workplace EV charging infrastructure(million charging points)points)11x11xIncrease in public charger requirement by 2040

138、Ways to navigate the bottlenecks are exemplified by some countries:In the UK,regional councils map the distribution grid to local authority-owned land,to identify sites for public charging where people live and work.In the Netherlands,regional governments,provinces and municipalities share knowledge

139、 and tender jointly for charging infrastructure deployment.34Spain requires land to be allocated for the installation of charging infrastructure in public spaces.Accessible charging infrastructure 03Source:EY analysis-EV Charging Infrastructure Forecast,February 202311.15.21.60.917.038|EurelectricWa

140、ys to roll out charging infrastructure faster and equitably Ways to roll out charging infrastructure faster and equitably Strengthen cooperation between local authorities,DSOs,charge point operators(CPOs)and public transport operators.At a European level,unite parties in drafting and implementing Su

141、stainable Urban Mobility Plans,with a focus on efficient and transparent tendering processes to proactively plan for and identify sites for charging infrastructure.Build capacity within local authorities to manage e-mobility rollout by streamlining and capitalising on diverse funding opportunities,e

142、ngaging early in projects,adopting digitally enabled strategies and sharing knowledge with other local authorities.Prioritise cooperation between DSOs and public authorities in preparing for network development and use hosting capacity maps to make siting decisions more transparent to CPOs.Incentivi

143、se,via regulation,the installation of charging infrastructure in underprivileged,vulnerable and economically challenged communities.Identify opportunities for utilities to partner with big retail chains,hotels and smaller venues to provide consumers with greater charging certainty and choice at go-t

144、o destinations.Develop proper and standardised tendering processes for acquiring land,while unlocking revenue opportunities for public and private landowners,and creating EV charging hubs in the places and spaces where they are needed.Repurpose existing fuel stations as EV charging locations.Create

145、a separate vision and plan for installing HDV charging infrastructure in non-urban hubs.Develop community or cooperative charging solutions to serve multi-unit dwellings.Accessible charging infrastructure0339|EurelectricIn the US,electricity demand from EVs is expected to add 153TWh by 2030,rising t

146、o around 430TWh in 2035.By then,EVs will account for 10%of overall US power demand.35In Europe,demand for electricity from EVs is expected to increase by 200TWh,accounting for approximately 5%of total demand by 2030.36Analysis by the IEA reveals that when EV stock exceeds 20%of electricity demand,th

147、e need for grid adaptation becomes significant.37Other source and load complications arise from increased renewables generation and the rollout of heat pumps.To cope with increased load and minimise the need for grid upgrades,alternative mechanisms and smarter solutions are emerging.They include:Fle

148、xible connection agreementsProcurement of distributed flexibilityNetwork tariffs,including time-of-use(ToU)tariffs to incentivise EV owners to charge their vehicles at off-peak hours(at the end of 2021,139 ToU tariffs and services were available across Europe,specifically for EV smart charging).38De

149、mand-response capabilitiesRenewable energy and energy storage system Bidirectional charging technologiesIntegrated charging networksConsumer and fleet management incentives to encourage them to share their charging status04A smart gridIntegrate EVs with smart grid technology to better manage energy

150、demandMy prediction is that high-powered public charging infrastructure will remain under-utilised.A car is stationary for,on average,22 hours.So let it charge while its sitting there.People will find that a much better convenience.Garrett FitzgeraldSenior Director of Electrification,Smart Electric

151、Power Alliance(SEPA)“40|Eurelectric20232025203020352040Slow:Private homeSlow:Excluding Private homeFastSuperfast2144185462822The more charging infrastructure we install,the The more charging infrastructure we install,the greater the demands on the electricity gridgreater the demands on the electrici

152、ty gridA smart gridEuropean total electricity demand for EV charging,by charger type European total electricity demand for EV charging,by charger type(TWhTWh)04In 2030,e-mobility will represent 5%of European electricity demand.Where EV electricity demand will Where EV electricity demand will come fr

153、om come from EY identified the six most common charging use cases:residential(rural),residential(urban),workplace,fleet hub,overnight stay hub and highway corridor.EY analysts predict an 86%increase in peak load in multi-unit dwellings and a 90%increase on highway corridors,where rapid and high-powe

154、red chargers draw large amounts of electricity from the grid.Transformers,in most cases,will have to operate above their rated capacity.Source:EY analysis-EV Charging Infrastructure Forecast,February 202341|EurelectricPushing grid possibilities Pushing grid possibilities For EVs to become a resource

155、 rather than a challenge to grid stability,we urgently need:Coordinated plans for grid expansion and enhancement Digital technologies for two-way communications and pricing between EVs and gridsCurrently,optimised EV charging determines the cheapest time for EVs to charge.It is used to lessen the ri

156、sk of overloading transformers or transmission lines and mitigates the costs of grid upgrades.Coming up,as the next big thing in smart charging,is vehicle-to-everything(V2X)technology.It allows energy,stored within an EV battery,to be exported and used in the home,in other buildings,or even to balan

157、ce the electricity grid.Vehicle-to-grid(V2G)technology allows the grid to push and pull energy to and from connected vehicles if energy demand threatens supply.A recent study by IRENA indicates that V2G can reduce grid reinforcements costs by 10%.39However,the technology is at a nascent stage,with a

158、round 78%of projects running on a trial basis.40A smart grid04The technology is available.The next challenge,of course,is to change consumer behaviour and to remunerate flexibility,so that systems can be efficiently integrated.Urska SkrtMobility Manager,World Business Council for Sustainable Develop

159、ment(WBCSD)“42|EurelectricWays to increase EV hosting capacity on the gridWays to increase EV hosting capacity on the gridExpedite grid connections with standardised and separate permitting processes,and encourage cooperation and collaboration between stakeholders.Develop grid forecasts for EV integ

160、ration to estimate the impact of future additional loads.Improve the accuracy and reliability of data for EV forecasts.Create an EV/DSO coordination process,aimed at sharing knowledge and benchmarks.Explore V2G,V2X,bi-directional charging and other technologies that can deliver flexibility to the gr

161、id.Develop tariff structures and innovative promotional schemes to encourage consumers to charge at non-peak times(e.g.,ToU tariffs)and mitigate the risk of overloading the grid.Consider how EV manufacturers can partner with utility companies to create custom electricity tariffs,which are bundled in

162、to the purchase of an EV.Develop a vision and technical requirements for LDV and HDV uptake.Adapt regulation so that DSOs can build their cases for future investment and resources around forecast load coming on to the grid.Increase rewards for EV participation in power markets as flexible resources.

163、Support ambitious targets,set out in the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive,by installing pre-cabling in buildings to prepare them for charging points.A smart grid0443|EurelectricBy the time millions of EVs hit the road over the next decade,the term“data highway”will take on a literal meaning

164、.A complex EV ecosystem,interlinked by data flows,is emerging.Data is generated at primary nodes in EVs,at public and private chargers and by CPOs within the e-mobility ecosystem.This data connects with other ecosystems,such as energy,buildings and public and civil organisations,and becomes a single

165、 cohesive“ecosystem of ecosystems.”Given this is a relatively nascent yet complex EV ecosystem,data management is emerging as a major challenge.It raises issues around data storage,ownership,usage and regulation.DigitalisationCreate digital platforms and mobile applications to optimise EV charging f

166、or the customer05From the outset,key players in the industry have tried to make EV charging as consumer friendly as possible.We support EV drivers and believe that payment should be easy and seamless.In the future,therefore,drivers will be able to use their EV as a means of authentication and paymen

167、t(i.e.,through Plug N Charge),making EV charging even simpler.Jayson DongSenior Manager,Public Policy EU,ChargePoint“44|EurelectricSource:Adapted from CERRE energy data sharing the case of electric vehicle(ev)smart charging(cerre.eu),EY analysisPotential data flowDigitalisation05Energy ecosystemMobi

168、lity ecosystemBuilding ecosystemEVTSODSOConsumer payments systemCPOMSPPublic charging infrastructureBattery/car manufacturersNavigation providersConsumersPrivate chargerBuilding heating systemSmart devicesOn-site generationOn-site storageBuilding energy management systemBuilding connection/meterBala

169、ncing service provider/aggregatorWholesale energy/flexibility marketPower generatorThe eThe e-mobility ecosystem mobility ecosystem Energy retailer45|EurelectricBy mining and analysing the data generated by EVs and charging stations,it can be turned into valuable insights that inform wider industry

170、needs.It can be used to:Assess infrastructure needs.Provide information on traffic density.Understand the capacity of the grid network.Assess suitability for renewable energy integration.Support identification of suitable locations for charging infrastructure.Develop additional services and hyper-pe

171、rsonalised product offerings for customers.Explore and expand into non-core markets or to undertake joint initiatives with other ecosystem players.Digitalisation is critical for interoperability too.It allows users to connect wirelessly,roam and pay to charge,in a safe and easy way,across different

172、products or systems or locations.In turn,this provides greater versatility and security from the charging experience,enhances customer confidence and helps to accelerate mass EV adoption.Digitalisation05Digital turns data into insightsDigital turns data into insights46|EurelectricWays to make the eW

173、ays to make the e-mobility ecosystem interoperablemobility ecosystem interoperableAdopt and harmonise open protocols to support neutral interconnections between EVs,CPOs and e-mobility service providers(EMSPs),and to enable roaming and grid connection.Develop an open connected platform for data shar

174、ing,and create fair and transparent data access requirements.Make battery data available to CPOs and EMSPs to create better services for customers.Enable better customer choice and convenience with interconnections between car navigation systems and EMSP apps.Create a digital twin of the grid to mod

175、el traffic density,grid network capacity and potential for renewable integration,and to identify suitable sites,land usage requirements and permits.Use data analytics and data science tools to develop services,applications and hyper-personalised product offerings.Digitalisation0547|EurelectricDigita

176、lisation Source:Adapted from Data and Mobility Intelligence Drive EV Adoption,https:/otonomo.io/resource-category/white-papers/,EY analysis05New data for new business modelsNew data for new business modelsSmart grid planningSmart grid planningMonitoring the grid to anticipate future use,design and i

177、nvestment needs.Dynamic load Dynamic load managementmanagementBalance energy demand optimally across the charging network.Charging Charging infrastructure planning infrastructure planning Plan and optimise site location to increase utilization and ROI.Intelligent thirdIntelligent third-party party p

178、artnershipspartnershipsPartner with retail and other businesses to offer destination charging and integrated services.Route planningRoute planningPlan journeys with EV charging in mind.Apps for unified Apps for unified experienceexperienceApps as a single platform for direct payments,energy manageme

179、nt,access charging stations,etc.Using data Using data to drive EV to drive EV adoptionadoption48|EurelectricThe shift toward electric cars and trucks is creating economic opportunities along the auto-manufacturing value chain and in related industries,while disrupting legacy business models.But the

180、transition is forecast to create more jobs than it displaces.In the US,a net gain of two million jobs would be realised in 2035 if all new car and truck sales were electric.41Similarly,if all EU fleet is fully electric,around 1.1 million permanent jobs would be created by 2050.42The European battery

181、 industry needs 800,000 qualified workers by 2025.Meanwhile,utility staff are being poached by tech start-ups for their industry know-how,while staff close to retirement are opting to leave early.To guarantee a talent pipeline,automakers are safeguarding jobs by re-skilling and providing opportuniti

182、es to adapt to electric powertrains.Some are pledging to retain every worker on the road to creating an all-EV line-up.And to create tailored training pathways,many companies are teaming up with technology partners,universities,community colleges,industry experts and learning platforms.However,gover

183、nment must get behind education too.Investment in apprenticeships,retooling and retraining,as well as recognised qualifications,are fundamental to making this transition happen.06Skilled labourEquipping the next-generation workforce with e-mobility skillsTalent deficit in the global Talent deficit i

184、n the global e e-mobility ecosystemmobility ecosystem90,000 qualified technicians will be needed in the UK EV industry by 2030.4350,000 automotive workers must be upskilled if Australia is to meet its state and federal targets by 2030.44More than 150,000 jobs are to be created across the EV industry

185、 in the US by 2030.4580%of engineer jobs are unfilled in the EV industry in India.4649|Eurelectric06Limited Limited potential potential workforceworkforcepoolpoolSkill gaps in Skill gaps in existing existing workforceworkforceTalent retention Talent retention issuesissuesSkilled labourWays to make t

186、he workforce eWays to make the workforce e-mobilitymobility-readyreadyImplement organisational change management,putting humans at the centre.Where the logical and emotional journey is balanced,and people are supported along the way,transformation is more than twice as successful.Recruit knowledgeab

187、le and open-minded people in leadership and decision-making positions.Invest in upskilling the workforce to mitigate labour shortages and ensure the right capabilities to see through the e-mobility transformation.Source:EY analysisTalent deficit in the global Talent deficit in the global e e-mobilit

188、ymobilityecosystemecosystem50|Eurelectric06Skilled labourThe energy transition demands new skills and capabilities.Some can be adapted from existing manpower;others will have to be developed.The transition to e-mobilitywill not be detrimental to jobs,but it will require a capability switch.There are

189、 shortages of skills associated with digital,payments,operations,maintenance(predictive or corrective)and manufacturing.Gonalo Castelo BrancoHead of E-mobility,EDP“51|EurelectricGetting to our destination0352|EurelectricStakeholders collaborateMilestones stretch out before us:2035,the date at which

190、sales of new ICE vehicles are banned;2050,the year when medium-and heavy-duty vehicles are predicted to achieve net-zero carbon emissions.Globally,the EV industry is heading towards 20%EV adoption.The next big milestone is to win over the next 60%of users,transitioning them from EV awareness to EV a

191、dvocacy,and giving them reasons to be confident about e-mobility.Industry leaders who shared their views with us note that the conversation is moving on.From theorising about the magnitude of whats happening and how fast its happening,the conversation is now all about the practicalities of making it

192、 happen at ground level.And that does not happen in silos,but when everyone pulls in the same direction and collaborates around problem solving:At a local level,cities are working with utilities and CPOs to inform policy decisions around electrification of passenger and commercial vehicle fleets to

193、support decarbonisation.Automakers are listening to consumers and fleet operators and developing new EV models that meet their shifting preferences and priorities.At the 30,000-foot level,everyone understands whats happening.But now were at ground level,working out what kind of demands are going to

194、be put on a specific point on a specific circuit.That is a monumental leap.Were at the nuts and bolts stage of making this transition work.Michelle BuffingtonVehicle Program Specialist,California Air Resources Board“53|EurelectricStakeholders collaborate(cont.)Regulators,utilities and CPOs are worki

195、ng together on challenges,such as how to get a charger to a multi-unit dwelling so that every resident who needs to charge can do so,or how much power and infrastructure is needed to support the charging demands of eHDVs.Automakers and utilities are putting in place educational programmes to address

196、 skill gaps.Utilities are working with investors to build and finance new renewable energy capacity.Automakers are partnering with technology providers to support EV drivers in finding fast-charging stations much more easily,enhance EV driver security or develop new solutions,such as usage-based ins

197、urance products,that could reduce insurance premiums for the customer.When creating an industry from scratch,there will be people that will always have concerns and are uncomfortable with such significant change no matter what assurances are given.Theyre potentially the last 20%of drivers who will s

198、witch.Weve already convinced the first 20%,the first“movers”,who want to transition to e-mobility because they believe its important to their lives and what they stand for.Now weve got to convince the important 60%the majority.And we do that by working hard to support their own awareness,understandi

199、ng and decision-making.Dr Nina SkorupskaChief Executive,REA“54|EurelectricIn developing this study,industry leaders agree that two priorities the ability to charge EVs and the ability to control EV consumption for load management purposes are fundamental to maintaining the pace of the transition.Uti

200、lities have in-house electric engineering acumen,deep knowledge of electrical load on local distribution and transmission lines,and existing commercial power-supply relationships.Together,these capabilities will help them to address complex EV charging needs.Though utilities are lynchpins in acceler

201、ating EV adoption,success hinges on five imperatives:1.Develop a clear vision and overarching strategy:Utilities must align with internal and external stakeholders on the role they will play in shaping the new energy future.EV initiatives must not be siloed within or across organisations.2.Connect c

202、ustomers better,faster and more cheaply:As EV adoption scales,infrastructure connections must be made proactively,digitally and seamlessly to support consumers and fleets with their electrification and net-zero ambitions.Delays and unexpected costs for grid connections will impact charging infrastru

203、cture rollouts.Critical role of utilities55|Eurelectric3.Engage with EV customers:Utilities must establish themselves as trusted advisers to customers,both before and after they buy an EV.From real-time decision-making tools on their websites,to incentivised V2X and managed-charging programmes,utili

204、ties can enable customers EV transition in ways that support both the operational grid needs and the desired environmental,social and governance outcomes.4.Build a robust ecosystem:Utilities must partner strategically with customers,automakers,CPOs,regulators and governments.They must collaborate wi

205、th research organisations and with providers of data analytics and intelligent grid platforms.Strength and value will come from pooling knowledge and resolving challenges jointly as the energy and transportation industries converge.5.Take advantage of funding now:Financial support is available to ad

206、vance e-mobilityand infrastructure rollout.Development and grant applications should be submitted now to pilot and scale programmes.Supported by regulation and standards to support decarbonisation,the e-mobility transition is headed in the right direction.Now,as we shift the dial and the horizon bec

207、omes clearer,the conversation hones in on the details of what needs to happen,at grid level,to make the transition work functionally and equitably for all.Critical role of utilities(cont.)56|EurelectricAppendix 56|Eurelectric57|Eurelectric1.Keeping motorists mobile,RAC,2022,https:/www.rac.co.uk/driv

208、e/features/rac-report-on-motoring-2022/2.IEA(2022),Global EV Outlook 2022,IEA,Paris https:/www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2022,License:CC BY 4.03.Overview Electric vehicles:tax benefits&purchase incentives in the European Union(2022),ACEA,2022,https:/www.acea.auto/fact/overview-electric-vehic

209、les-tax-benefits-purchase-incentives-in-the-european-union-2022/4.“Global automakers earmark nearly US$600B for EVs over next decade”,Green Car Congress,02 April 2022,https:/ Utilities Know(And Dont Know)About EV Drivers,Bidgely and Utility Dive,2022,http:/ EV Sales for 2022,EV-Volumes,2022,https:/w

210、ww.ev- leads(so far)the race to electric trucks.Global trends and forecasts from Interact Analysis”,Sustainable Truck&Van,25 July 2022,https:/ analysis of LMC Automotive database9.EY Mobility Consumer Index a survey which gauges car-buying intent among 13,000 global respondents10.Energy Transition:C

211、ommercial EV Outlook,BTIG,14 Dec 2211.E-vans:Cheaper,greener,and in demand,https:/www.transportenvironment.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/2022_03_van_TCO_report-1.pdf,Transport&Environment,202212.“Decarbonizing bus fleets:global overview of targets for phasing out combustion engine vehicles”,ICCT,9

212、December 2021,https:/www.transportenvironment.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/2022_03_van_TCO_report-1.pdfFootnotes 58|Eurelectric13.“Clean Vehicles Directive”,European Commission website,https:/www.transportenvironment.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/2022_03_van_TCO_report-1.pdf,accessed 9 Feb 2023,1

213、4.Energy Transition:Commercial EV Outlook,BTIG,14 Dec 2215.Global EV Sales for 2022,EV-Volumes,2022,https:/www.ev- of subsidies wont put brakes on 2023 EV sales as demand revved up.”,China Daily,20 Jan 2023,https:/ car registrations:+11.3%in January 2023,battery electric 9.5%market share”,ACEA,21 Fe

214、bruary 2023,https:/www.acea.auto/pc-registrations/passenger-car-registrations-11-3-in-january-2023-battery-electric-9-5-market-share/18.Global EV Sales for 2022,EV-Volumes,2022,https:/www.ev- Mobility Lens Forecaster20.“The Road Ahead for Fleet EV Charging&Payments:A Deep Dive into the Fleet EV-Char

215、ging Landscape”,JP Morgan,21 October 202221.EY Mobility Lens Forecaster22.“The Number of EV Models Will Double by 2024”,Visual Capitalist,15 February 2022,https:/ EVs and Mass Adoption:The Industry Challenge,JATO,2022,https:/ Union and UK Automotive ICE vs EV Total Cost of Ownership,Avicenne Energy,

216、2021,https:/nickelinstitute.org/media/8d9058c08d2bcf2/avicenne-study-tco-eu-and-uk-automotive.pdfFootnotes 59|Eurelectric25.Most electric vehicles are cheaper to own off the lot than gas cars,Robbie Orvis,2022,https:/energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Most-Electric-Vehicles-Are-Cheaper-

217、Off-The-Lot-Than-Gas-Cars.pdf26.“Advanced Clean Trucks Fact Sheet”,CARB website,https:/ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/fact-sheets/advanced-clean-trucks-fact-sheet,accessed 3 March 202327.IEA(2022),Global EV Outlook 2022,IEA,Paris https:/www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2022,License:CC BY 4.028.“REPow

218、erEU:A plan to rapidly reduce dependence on Russian fossil fuels and fast forward the green transition”,European Commission,18 May 2022,https:/ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_313129.“Range of full electric vehicles”,Electric Vehicle Database website,accessed 9 March 2023,https:/e

219、v-database.org/cheatsheet/range-electric-car30.“National Household Travel Survey Daily Travel Quick Facts”,USDOT website,https:/www.bts.gov/statistical-products/surveys/national-household-travel-survey-daily-travel-quick-facts,accessed 1 March 202331.“Its common to charge electric vehicles at night.

220、That will be a problem.”,Climate&Environment,22 September 2022,https:/ Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Trends from the Alternative Fueling Station Locator:Second Quarter 2022,NREL,2022,https:/afdc.energy.gov/files/u/publication/electric_vehicle_charging_infrastructure_trends_second_quarter_2022.pdf3

221、3.EY analysis,January 202334.“THE NETHERLANDS AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES:A POLICY MODEL FOR THE WORLD”,Renewables cities website,https:/www.renewablecities.ca/blog/the-netherlands-and-electric-vehicles-a-policy-model-for-the-world,accessed 19 Feb 202335.EY analysis,January 202336.EY analysis,January 2023

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227、sed 14 Dec 202246.“EV industry grapples with talent shortage,80%engineering positions go unfilled”,EN Tracker,https:/ 18 Dec 2022Photos iStock&UnsplashFootnotes 行業報告資源群行業報告資源群微信掃碼 長期有效微信掃碼 長期有效微信掃碼 行研無憂微信掃碼 行研無憂免責申明：本內容非原報告內容;報告來源互聯網公開數據；如侵權請聯系客服微信，第一時間清理；報告僅限社群個人學習，如需它用請聯系版權方；如有其他疑問請聯系微信。1.進群福利：進群即領萬份行業研究、管理方案及其他學習資源，直接打包下載2.每日分享：6+份行研精選、3個行業主題3.報告查找：群里直接咨詢，免費協助查找4.嚴禁廣告：僅限行業報告交流，禁止一切無關信息知識星球 行業與管理資源知識星球 行業與管理資源專業知識社群：每月分享8000+份行業研究報告、商業計劃、市場研究、企業運營及咨詢管理方案等，涵蓋科技、金融、教育、互聯網、房地產、生物制藥、醫療健康等；已成為投資、產業研究、企業運營、價值傳播等工作助手。