皮尤研究中心：2022年公眾的首要任務：加強國家經濟（英文版）（25頁）.pdf

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1、 FOR RELEASE FEBRUARY 16, 2022 FOR MEDIA OR OTHER INQUIRIES: Carroll Doherty, Director of Political Research Jocelyn Kiley, Associate Director, Research Nida Asheer, Communications Manager Calvin Jordan, Communications Associate 202.419.4372 www.pewresearch.org RECOMMENDED CITATION Pew Research Cent

2、er, February 2022, “Publics Top Priority for 2022: Strengthening the Nations Economy” 2 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org About Pew Research Center Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world. It does not take

3、policy positions. The Center conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, content analysis and other data-driven social science research. It studies U.S. politics and policy; journalism and media; internet, science and technology; religion and public life; Hispanic trends; global attitudes

4、 and trends; and U.S. social and demographic trends. All of the Centers reports are available at www.pewresearch.org. Pew Research Center is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts, its primary funder. Pew Research Center 2022 3 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org How we did this Pew Research

5、Center conducted this study to understand which issues the public views as most important for the president and Congress to prioritize in the coming year. For this analysis, we surveyed 5,128 U.S. adults in January 2022. Everyone who took part in this survey is a member of the Centers American Trend

6、s Panel (ATP), an online survey panel that is recruited through national, random sampling of residential addresses. This way nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. The survey is weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, e

7、ducation and other categories. Read more about the ATPs methodology. Here are the questions used for the report, along with responses, and its methodology. 4 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org As the coronavirus pandemic enters its third year, more Americans view strengthening the U.S. economy

8、as a top policy priority than say the same about dealing with COVID-19. This marks a shift from last year, when the economy and the coronavirus both topped the publics policy agenda. At a time when Americans rate several issues as lower priorities than they did a year ago, the decline in the share c

9、iting the pandemic has been particularly steep: 60% now view dealing with the coronavirus as a top policy priority, down from 78% last year. Currently, 71% of U.S. adults rate strengthening the economy as a top policy priority, followed by reducing health care costs (61%), addressing the coronavirus

10、 (60%), improving education (58%) and securing Social Security (57%) according to a Pew Research Center survey of 5,128 adults conducted Jan. 10-17, 2022, on the nationally representative American Trends Panel. Smaller Strengthening the economy is publics top concern, followed by cutting health cost

11、s, addressing COVID-19 % who say _ should be a top priority for the president and Congress to address this year Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Jan. 10-17, 2022. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 716160585755525252494545444237373531Strengthening economyReducing health care costsDealing with coronavirus ou

12、tbreakImproving educationSecuring Social SecurityDefending against terrorismImproving political systemReducing crimeImproving job situationDealing with immigrationReducing budget deficitAddressing criminal justice systemDealing with problems of poor peopleDealing with climate changeAddressing issues

13、 around raceStrengthening militaryDealing with global tradeDealing with drug addiction5 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org shares view seven of the 18 items included in the survey as top policy priorities than did so last year (four items increased). The publics policy agenda reflects continued

14、 concerns over the economy. With inflation at a four-decade high, large majorities of Americans say prices for food and consumer goods (89%), gas prices (82%) and the cost of housing (79%) are worse than they were a year ago. Only 28% rate economic conditions as excellent or good. Still, fewer Ameri

15、cans cite strengthening the economy as a top priority than did so in 2021 (71% now vs. 80% then), and there has been a sizable decline in concern about jobs. Only about half of Americans view improving the job situation as a top priority (52%), compared with 67% last year. Prior to the COVID-19 outb

16、reak in 2020, there had been a long-term decline in the shares citing the economy and jobs as top policy priorities. As in the past, Republicans and Democrats differ on the importance of most policy priorities, but the partisan gaps have widened significantly for 11 of the 18 items included in the s

17、urvey including double-digit increases in partisan differences on dealing with immigration, improving the political system, improving the job situation and addressing issues within the criminal justice system. Among those items that rank near the bottom on the 18-item priorities list today are addre

18、ssing issues around race (37% top priority), strengthening the military (also 37%), dealing with global trade (35%) and dealing with drug addiction (31%). Notably, majorities rate all of these policy goals either as a “top priority” for the president and Congress or as “an important but lower priori

19、ty”; for each, relatively small shares say they are “not too important” or “should not be done.” (For a closer look at the top policy priorities of partisan and demographic groups, see the detailed tables accompanying this report). 6 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org While the economy continue

20、s to lead the publics list of priorities, there has been a decline in the share of Americans, especially Democrats, who view it as a top policy priority. The share of Democrats and independents who lean toward the Democratic Party who say strengthening the economy should be a top priority has fallen

21、 from 75% a year ago to 63% today. By contrast, there has been almost no change in views among Republicans and GOP leaners (85% top priority then, 82% today). Democrats also are less likely to rate improving the job situation as a top priority than they did last January, before President Joe Biden t

22、ook office. Last year, 71% of Democrats said jobs should be a top priority; today, only about half of Democrats say this (49%). The decline has been more modest among Republicans (from 63% to 55%). Dealing with the coronavirus outbreak is viewed as a less important priority than last year. A year ag

23、o, 78% of the public said it was a top priority; today, that share has fallen to 60%. The decline is steeper among Republicans than Democrats 60% said the pandemic was a top priority a year ago compared with 35% today but fewer Democrats also still view it as a major priority (93% last year, 80% now

24、). Republicans are more likely to rate dealing with immigration and reducing the budget deficit as top priorities than did so last year, while there has been little change in views on the importance of these issues among Democrats. Compared with last year, fewer Americans view the economy, jobs and

25、coronavirus as top policy priorities % who say _ should be a top priority for the president and Congress to address this year Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Jan. 10-17, 2022. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 7 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org A year ago, identical shares of Republicans and Democr

26、ats (39% each) said dealing with the issue of immigration should be a top priority. Today, two-thirds of Republicans (67%) view immigration as a top priority, compared with just 35% of Democrats. The share of Republicans who prioritize reducing the budget deficit also increased from 54% to 63%, whil

27、e holding stable among Democrats (29% then vs. 31% now). Other issues have declined as policy priorities among members of both parties since last year. The share of Americans who say addressing issues around race should be a top priority for the president and Congress has fallen from 49% to 37%. Cur

28、rently, 53% of Democrats say addressing issues around race should be a top priority, compared with 72% who said the same last year. Among Republicans, who were far less likely than Democrats to rate this as a priority, there has been a 10 percentage point decline in the share rating it as a top prio

29、rity (24% to 14%). Dealing with the problems of poor people has declined as a policy priority as well. Both Republicans (25% now vs. 35% in 2021) and Democrats (58% now vs. 68% then) are now less likely to see dealing with the problems low-income families face as a top priority though Democrats cont

30、inue to prioritize this policy area far more than Republicans. Fewer members of both parties now say addressing issues around race and poverty should be top policy priorities % who say _ should be a top priority for the president and Congress to address this year Source: Survey of U.S. adults conduc

31、ted Jan. 10-17, 2022. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 8 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org There also has been a decline in the share of the public saying that improving the political system should be a top policy priority, largely driven by Republicans. Last year, there was essentially no difference betwe

32、en the shares in each party who viewed improving the political system as a top priority (64% of Democrats and 60% of Republicans). Now, just 40% in the GOP say this should be a top priority, compared with 61% of Democrats. 9 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org While there are wide partisan diffe

33、rences on most priorities, 82% of Republicans and a smaller majority of Democrats (63%) say strengthening the economy should be a top priority for the president and Congress. Among 18 items, the economy is by far the leading priority among Republicans and is among the leading priorities for Democrat

34、s. Comparable shares in both parties also say taking steps to make the Social Security system financially sound (58% of Republicans, 56% of Democrats) and dealing with drug addiction (32% of Democrats, 27% of Republicans) should be top priorities. On most other issues, however, there are substantial

35、 partisan differences especially on dealing with global climate change and the coronavirus outbreak. Large majorities of Democrats say both should be top priorities (80% coronavirus, 65% climate change) compared with just 35% and 11% of Republicans, respectively. Beyond the economy, Republicans say

36、the president and Congress should prioritize dealing with immigration (67%), defending against terrorism (65%), reducing the budget deficit (63%) and reducing crime (60%). Wide partisan gaps on many issues, but majorities in both parties prioritize a stronger economy % who say _ should be a top prio

37、rity for the president and Congress to address this year Note: Statistically significant differences in bold. Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Jan. 10-17, 2022. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 10 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org Republicans are, on average, about 25 points more likely than Democra

38、ts to say each of these issues should be at the top of the national policy agenda. In addition to strengthening the economy, Democrats leading priorities are dealing with the coronavirus (80%), reducing health care costs (69%), improving education (66%) and dealing with global climate change (65%).

39、These issues are far less salient for Republicans: Democrats are on average about 33 points more likely than Republicans to rate each as a top priority. 11 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org Across racial and ethnic lines, strengthening the economy ranks near the top of the policy agenda. About

40、 seven-in-ten White (72%), Black (69%) and Hispanic (70%) adults say this should be a top priority this year. But there are significant differences in the importance of a number of other issues, especially addressing issues around race, dealing with the problems of poor people and addressing the cri

41、minal justice system. Black adults (66%) are more likely than either White (27%) or Hispanic adults (47%) to say that addressing issues around race should be a top priority. In addition, about two-thirds of Black adults say dealing with the problems associated with poverty (68%) and criminal justice

42、 reform (67%) should get top priority this year, compared with around four-in-ten White adults who say this for both issues. Hispanic Americans express views closer to Black adults on dealing with poverty (55% of Hispanic adults say it should be top priority), but their views are closer to those of

43、White adults on criminal justice reform (48%). Majorities of White, Black and Hispanic adults say strengthening the economy should be a top priority % who say _ should be a top priority for the president and Congress to address this year Notes: White and Black adults include those who report being o

44、nly one race and are not Hispanic. Hispanics are of any race. Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Jan. 10-17, 2022. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 12 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org Among Democrats and Democratic leaners, Black adults are more likely than White or Hispanic adults to rate a number o

45、f issues as top policy priorities. For example, 70% of Black Democrats rate reducing crime as a top priority, compared with 56% of Hispanic Democrats and just 34% of White Democrats. Black Democrats (71%) also are almost twice as like as White Democrats (38%) to say that addressing the criminal just

46、ice system should be a top priority; 53% of Hispanic Democrats see this as a major priority. Dealing with climate change is the only issue which White Democrats (68%) are more likely than Black Democrats (58%) to view as a top priority. Black Democrats more likely than White and Hispanic Democrats t

47、o view several issues as top priorities, including race, criminal justice and crime Among Democrats and Democratic leaners, % who say _ should be a top priority for the president and Congress to address this year Notes: White and Black adults include those who report being only one race and are not

48、Hispanic. Hispanics are of any race. Insufficient sample to show breaks among Republicans. Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Jan. 10-17, 2022. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 13 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org There are wide age differences in views of policy priorities, with older adults more lik

49、ely than younger people to rate several policy priorities as more important. There are some exceptions to this pattern, however. For example, adults under 30 (54%) are more likely to say global climate change should be a top priority than older age groups. The widest gaps between older and younger a

50、dults are on strengthening the military and defending against terrorism. About half of adults ages 50 and older (52%) say that strengthening the military should be a top priority. Just 10% of adults under age 30 say the same. Similarly, about three-quarters of adults ages 65 and older say that defen

51、ding against terrorism should be a top priority, compared with about a third of those under 30. Within both parties, older Americans are more likely to prioritize defense issues (see detailed tables). Younger adults much less likely than older adults to prioritize dealing with terrorism, strengtheni

52、ng the military % who say _ should be a top priority for the president and Congress to address this year Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Jan. 10-17, 2022. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 14 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org Older adults are also more likely than younger adults to prioritize dealin

53、g with immigration, securing Social Security and strengthening the economy. 15 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org While the share of the public who says that dealing with the coronavirus outbreak should be a top priority has fallen in the last year, this decline is larger among younger American

54、s. A year ago, three-quarters of adults under 50 said dealing with the coronavirus should be a top priority; today, about half (54%) say the same. There has been a similar decline among adults ages 50 to 64 who view COVID-19 as a top priority (80% in 2021, 61% today). Older Americans are only somewh

55、at less likely to say that dealing with the pandemic should be a top priority (80% a year ago, 72% today). While there is a large partisan gap in views of the coronavirus as a top priority, there are also age differences within each party. Older adults in each party are generally more likely to prio

56、ritize the coronavirus than younger ones. Today, Republicans across all ages are at least 20 points less likely than they were a year ago to say that dealing with the coronavirus outbreak should be a top priority. However, Republicans ages 65 and older are somewhat more likely to rate dealing with t

57、he coronavirus as a top goal than Republicans under 65 (44% vs. 32%). While overwhelming majorities of Democrats ages 65 and older are as likely to say that dealing with the coronavirus should be a top priority as they were a year ago, younger Democrats are less likely to say this over the same time

58、span. Democrats under 50 are 17 points less likely to rate dealing with COVID-19 as a top priority (90% then, 73% now) and Democrats ages 50 to 64 are 14 points less likely to say this (99% then, 85% now). Younger adults in both parties less likely than older adults to say dealing with COVID-19 shou

59、ld be a top priority % who say dealing with the coronavirus outbreak should be a top priority for the president and Congress to address this year Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Jan. 10-17, 2022. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 16 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org Women place a higher priority tha

60、n men on several policy goals, especially around the coronavirus and dealing with the problems of poor people. Nearly two-thirds of women (65%) say that dealing with the coronavirus outbreak should be a top priority for the president and Congress this year. A smaller share of men (54%) say the same.

61、 About half of women also say that dealing with the issue of poverty should be a top priority, while men are 10 points less likely to say this. Larger shares of women than men also say reducing health care costs, improving education, addressing issues around race and dealing with drug addiction shou

62、ld be top priorities in the year ahead. There are three topics dealing with global trade issues, reducing the budget deficit and dealing with immigration that men view as higher priorities than do women. Modest gender gaps on most policy priorities, but larger shares of women prioritize dealing with

63、 COVID-19, poverty, health care issues % who say _ should be a top priority for the president and Congress to address this year Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Jan. 10-17, 2022. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 17 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org There are substantial differences in views of polic

64、y priorities by education. Adults who do not have a four-year college degree are more likely to view several goals as top policy priorities. Roughly four-in-ten Americans without a college degree (42%) say that strengthening the military should be a top priority, compared with about a quarter (26%)

65、of those with a college degree. Similarly, nearly two-thirds of those without a college degree (63%) say securing Social Security should be a top priority for the president and Congress. Less than half of those with a college degree (44%) say that issue should be a top priority. Adults with less for

66、mal education are also more likely to prioritize many of these issues as top priorities, such as defending against terrorism, reducing crime, dealing with drug addiction, improving the job situation and reducing the budget deficit. There are two issues dealing with the coronavirus outbreak and deali

67、ng with climate change where those with more formal education are more likely to say this issue should be a top priority. Wide educational gaps on prioritizing stronger military, Social Security, anti-terrorism and reducing crime % who say _ should be a top priority for the president and Congress to

68、 address this year Postgrad College grad Some college HS or less % % % % Strengthening economy 70 70 72 71 Reducing health care costs 57 51 63 66 Dealing with coronavirus outbreak 67 58 58 59 Improving education 52 55 63 57 Securing Social Security 44 45 60 65 Defending against terrorism 47 42 54 66

69、 Improving political system 56 51 52 51 Reducing crime 42 43 50 61 Improving job situation 42 47 51 57 Dealing with immigration 42 44 48 55 Reducing budget deficit 35 40 48 50 Addressing criminal justice system 35 38 44 52 Dealing with problems of poor people 39 37 45 48 Dealing with climate change

70、45 47 39 42 Addressing issues around race 36 31 37 40 Strengthening military 24 27 36 46 Dealing with global trade 28 30 33 42 Dealing with drug addiction 22 26 28 38 Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Jan. 10-17, 2022. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 18 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org Acknowledgme

71、nts This report is a collaborative effort based on the input and analysis of the following individuals: Research team Carroll Doherty, Director, Political Research Jocelyn Kiley, Associate Director, Political Research Baxter Oliphant, Senior Researcher Bradley Jones, Senior Researcher Andrew Danille

72、r, Research Associate Hannah Hartig, Research Associate Amina Dunn, Research Analyst Ted Van Green, Research Analyst Vianney Gmez, Research Assistant Communications and editorial Nida Asheer, Communications Manager Calvin Jordan, Communications Associate Talia Price, Communications Assistant Rebecca

73、 Leppert, Editorial Assistant Graphic design and web publishing Alissa Scheller, Information Graphics Designer Reem Nadeem, Associate Digital Producer Methodology Andrew Mercer, Senior Research Methodologist Nick Bertoni, Senior Panel Manager Dorene Asare-Marfo, Research Methodologist Arnold Lau, Re

74、search Methodologist 19 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org Methodology Overview The American Trends Panel (ATP), created by Pew Research Center, is a nationally representative panel of randomly selected U.S. adults. Panelists participate via self-administered web surveys. Panelists who do not h

75、ave internet access at home are provided with a tablet and wireless internet connection. Interviews are conducted in both English and Spanish. The panel is being managed by Ipsos. Data in this report is drawn from the panel wave conducted from Jan. 10 to Jan. 17, 2022, and includes oversamples of As

76、ian, Black and Hispanic Americans in order to provide more precise estimates of the opinions and experiences of these smaller demographic subgroups. These oversampled groups are weighted back to reflect their correct proportions in the population. A total of 5,128 panelists responded out of 5,850 wh

77、o were sampled, for a response rate of 88%. The cumulative response rate accounting for nonresponse to the recruitment surveys and attrition is 3%. The break-off rate among panelists who logged on to the survey and completed at least one item is less than 1%. The margin of sampling error for the ful

78、l sample of 5,128 respondents is plus or minus 2.0 percentage points. Panel recruitment The ATP was created in 2014, with the first cohort of panelists invited to join the panel at the end of a large, national, landline and cellphone random-digit-dial survey that was conducted in both English and Sp

79、anish. Two additional recruitments were conducted using the same method in 2015 and 2017, respectively. Across these three surveys, a total of 19,718 adults were invited to join the ATP, of whom 9,942 (50%) agreed to participate. American Trends Panel recruitment surveys Recruitment dates Mode Invit

80、ed Joined Active panelists remaining Jan. 23 to March 16, 2014 Landline/ cell RDD 9,809 5,338 1,601 Aug. 27 to Oct. 4, 2015 Landline/ cell RDD 6,004 2,976 938 April 25 to June 4, 2017 Landline/ cell RDD 3,905 1,628 470 Aug. 8 to Oct. 31, 2018 ABS 9,396 8,778 4,430 Aug. 19 to Nov. 30, 2019 ABS 5,900

81、4,720 1,625 June 1 to July 19, 2020; Feb. 10 to March 31, 2021 ABS 3,197 2,812 1,696 May 29 to July 7, 2021 Sept. 16 to Nov. 1, 2021 ABS 1,329 1,162 937 Total 39,540 27,414 11,697 Note: Approximately once per year, panelists who have not participated in multiple consecutive waves or who did not comp

82、lete an annual profiling survey are removed from the panel. Panelists also become inactive if they ask to be removed from the panel. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 20 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org In August 2018, the ATP switched from telephone to address-based recruitment. Invitations were sent to a

83、 stratified, random sample of households selected from the U.S. Postal Services Delivery Sequence File. Sampled households receive mailings asking a randomly selected adult to complete a survey online. A question at the end of the survey asks if the respondent is willing to join the ATP. Starting in

84、 2020, another stage was added to the recruitment. Households that do not respond to the online survey are sent a paper version of the questionnaire, $5 and a postage-paid return envelope. A subset of the adults returning the paper version of the survey are invited to join the ATP. This subset of ad

85、ults receive a follow-up mailing with a $10 pre-incentive and invitation to join the ATP. Across the four address-based recruitments, a total of 19,822 adults were invited to join the ATP, of whom 17,472 agreed to join the panel and completed an initial profile survey. In each household, the adult w

86、ith the next birthday was asked to go online to complete a survey, at the end of which they were invited to join the panel. Of the 27,414 individuals who have ever joined the ATP, 11,697 remained active panelists and continued to receive survey invitations at the time this survey was conducted. The

87、U.S. Postal Services Delivery Sequence File has been estimated to cover as much as 98% of the population, although some studies suggest that the coverage could be in the low 90% range.1 The ATP never uses breakout routers or chains that direct respondents to additional surveys. Sample design The ove

88、rall target population for this survey was non-institutionalized persons ages 18 and older, living in the U.S., including Alaska and Hawaii. This study featured a stratified random sample from the ATP. The sample was allocated according to the following strata, in order: Black, Asian or Hispanic Ame

89、ricans, tablet households, not registered to vote, high school education or less, ages 18 to 34, uses internet weekly or less, nonvolunteers and all other categories not already falling into any of the above. Black, Asian and Hispanic panelists were sampled with certainty. The remaining strata were

90、sampled at rates designed to ensure that the share of respondents in each stratum is proportional to its share of the U.S. adult population to the greatest extent possible. Respondent weights are adjusted to account for differential probabilities of selection as described in the Weighting section be

91、low. 1 AAPOR Task Force on Address-based Sampling. 2016. “AAPOR Report: Address-based Sampling.” 21 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org Questionnaire development and testing The questionnaire was developed by Pew Research Center in consultation with Ipsos. The web program was rigorously tested o

92、n both PC and mobile devices by the Ipsos project management team and the Centers researchers. The Ipsos project management team also populated test data that was analyzed in SPSS to ensure the logic and randomizations were working as intended before launching the survey. Incentives All respondents

93、were offered a post-paid incentive for their participation. Respondents could choose to receive the post-paid incentive in the form of a check or a gift code to A, or could choose to decline the incentive. Incentive amounts ranged from $5 to $20 depending on whether the respondent belongs to a part

94、of the population that is harder or easier to reach. Differential incentive amounts were designed to increase panel survey participation among groups that traditionally have low survey response propensities. Data collection protocol The data collection field period for this survey was Jan. 10 to Jan

95、. 17, 2022. Postcard notifications were mailed to all ATP panelists with a known residential address on Jan. 10, 2022. Invitations were sent out in two separate launches: Soft Launch and Full Launch. Sixty panelists were included in the soft launch, which began with an initial invitation sent on Jan

96、. 10, 2022. The ATP panelists chosen for the initial soft launch were known responders who had completed previous ATP surveys within one day of receiving their invitation. All remaining English- and Spanish-speaking panelists were included in the full launch and were sent an invitation on Jan. 11, 2

97、022. All panelists with an email address received an email invitation and up to two email reminders if they did not respond to the survey. All ATP panelists that consented to SMS messages received an SMS invitation and up to two SMS reminders. 22 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org Invitation an

98、d reminder dates Soft Launch Full Launch Initial invitation Jan. 10, 2022 Jan. 11, 2022 First reminder Jan. 13, 2022 Jan. 13, 2022 Final reminder Jan. 16, 2022 Jan. 16, 2022 Data quality checks To ensure high-quality data, the Centers researchers performed data quality checks to identify any respond

99、ents showing clear patterns of satisficing. This includes checking for very high rates of leaving questions blank, as well as always selecting the first or last answer presented. As a result of this checking, three ATP respondents were removed from the survey dataset prior to weighting and analysis.

100、 Weighting The ATP data is weighted in a multistep process that accounts for multiple stages of sampling and nonresponse that occur at different points in the survey process. First, each panelist begins with a base weight that reflects their probability of selection for their initial recruitment sur

101、vey. The base weights for panelists recruited in different years are scaled to be proportionate to the effective sample size for all panelists in their cohort who were active at the time of the most recent profile survey. These weights are then calibrated to align with the population benchmarks in t

102、he accompanying table to correct for nonresponse to recruitment surveys and panel attrition up to that point. A second calibration adjustment was made to account for more recent attrition. If only a subsample of panelists was invited to participate in the wave, this weight is adjusted to account for

103、 any differential probabilities of selection. Among the panelists who completed the survey, this weight is then calibrated again to align with the population benchmarks identified in the accompanying table and trimmed at the 1st and 99th percentiles to reduce the loss in precision stemming from vari

104、ance in the weights. Sampling errors and tests of statistical significance take into account the effect of weighting. Some of the population benchmarks used for weighting come from surveys conducted prior to the coronavirus outbreak that began in February 2020. However, the weighting variables for p

105、anelists recruited in 2021 were measured at the time they were recruited to the panel. Likewise, the profile variables for existing panelists were updated from panel surveys conducted in July or August 2021. 23 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org This does not pose a problem for most of the vari

106、ables used in the weighting, which are quite stable at both the population and individual levels. However, volunteerism may have changed over the intervening period in ways that made their 2021 measurements incompatible with the available (pre-pandemic) benchmarks. To address this, volunteerism is w

107、eighted using the profile variables that were measured in 2020. For all other weighting dimensions, the more recent panelist measurements from 2021 are used. For panelists recruited in 2021, plausible values were imputed using the 2020 volunteerism values from existing panelists with similar charact

108、eristics. This ensures that any patterns of change that were observed in the existing panelists were also reflected in the new recruits when the weighting was performed. Weighting dimensions Variable Benchmark source Age x Gender Education x Gender Education x Age Race/Ethnicity x Education Born ins

109、ide vs. outside the U.S. among Hispanics and Asian Americans Years lived in the U.S. 2019 American Community Survey (ACS) Census region x Metro/Non-metro 2020 CPS March Supplement Volunteerism 2019 CPS Volunteering & Civic Life Supplement Voter registration 2018 CPS Voting and Registration Supplemen

110、t Party affiliation Frequency of internet use Religious affiliation 2021 National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS) Note: Estimates from the ACS are based on non-institutionalized adults. Voter registration is calculated using procedures from Hur, Achen (2013) and rescaled to include the total

111、 U.S. adult population. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 24 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org The following table shows the unweighted sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey. Group Unweighted sample size W

112、eighted % Plus or minus Total sample 5,128 2.0 percentage points Half sample At least 2,558 2.8 percentage points Rep/Lean Rep 2,031 42 3.0 percentage points Half sample At least 993 4.3 percentage points Dem/Lean Dem 2,935 51 2.6 percentage points Half sample At least 1,434 3.7 percentage points No

113、te: This survey includes oversamples of Asian, Black and Hispanic respondents. Unweighted sample sizes do not account for the sample design or weighting and do not describe a groups contribution to weighted estimates. See the Sample design and Weighting sections above for details. Sample sizes and s

114、ampling errors for other subgroups are available upon request. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. 25 PEW RESEARCH CENTER www.pewresearch.org Disp

115、ositions and response rates Final dispositions AAPOR code Total Completed interview 1.1 5,128 Logged on to survey; broke-off 2.12 28 Logged on to survey; did not complete any items 2.1121 60 Never logged on (implicit refusal) 2.11 630 Survey completed after close of the field period 2.27 1 Completed

116、 interview but was removed for data quality 3 Screened out 0 Total panelists in the survey 5,850 Completed interviews I 5,128 Partial interviews P 0 Refusals R 721 Non-contact NC 1 Other O 0 Unknown household UH 0 Unknown other UO 0 Not eligible NE 0 Total 5,850 AAPOR RR1 = I / (I+P+R+NC+O+UH+UO) 88

117、% Cumulative response rate Total Weighted response rate to recruitment surveys 12% % of recruitment survey respondents who agreed to join the panel, among those invited 69% % of those agreeing to join who were active panelists at start of Wave 101 43% Response rate to Wave 101 survey 88% Cumulative response rate 3% Pew Research Center, 2022