【公司研究】長城汽車-深度報告系列之（一）：乘用車篇無懼低谷苦修內功自主龍頭強者恒強-20200714[36頁].pdf

《【公司研究】長城汽車-深度報告系列之（一）：乘用車篇無懼低谷苦修內功自主龍頭強者恒強-20200714[36頁].pdf》由會員分享，可在線閱讀，更多相關《【公司研究】長城汽車-深度報告系列之（一）：乘用車篇無懼低谷苦修內功自主龍頭強者恒強-20200714[36頁].pdf（36頁珍藏版）》請在三個皮匠報告上搜索。

1、 / 20112014 SUVH6 SUV 2015 20162017 SUV 2018 2018H22019H1 SUV i-pilot ASP 2020-202244.77 55.3667.90EPS0.490.600.74 19.9816.1613.18“” 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 99,230 96,211 95,642 108,634 119,668 (+/-)% -1.92% -3.04% -0.59% 13.58% 10.16% 5,207 4,497 4,477 5,536 6,790 (+/-)% 3.58% -13.64% -0.44%

2、23.65% 22.64% 0.57 0.49 0.49 0.60 0.74 9.87 18.06 19.98 16.16 13.18 0.98 1.49 1.52 1.39 1.26 (%) 9.91% 8.27% 7.60% 8.59% 9.53% (%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% () 9,127 9,127 9,177 9,177 9,177 2020/7/10 6 12.50 9.75 12 7.4010.08 89,472 9,177 A 6,077 B/H 0/3,100 37 -14% -6% 2% 10% 18% 26% 2019/72019

3、/102020/12020/4 % 1M 3M 12M 19% 25% 10% 1% -2% -16% 601633.SH6 -20200709 601633.SH5 -20200610 601633.SH -20200429 601633.SH3 -20200413 S0550518060001 021-20363210 S0550119070003 021-20363250 601633 2020-07-14 2 / 36 1. SUV . 5 1.1. . 5 1.2. SUV . 6 1.3. . 7 1.4. . 8 1.5. . 9 2. . 10 2.1. 2011-2014SU

4、V . 10 2.1.1. SUV . 10 2.1.2. . 11 2.2. 2015 . 13 2.2.1. . 13 2.2.2. 2015. 15 2.3. 2016-2017. 16 2.3.1. 2017 . 16 2.3.2. SUV. 17 2.3.3. 20162017. 19 2.4. 2018 . 20 2.4.1. . 20 2.4.2. . 21 2.4.3. 2018H2-2019H1. 22 3. . 22 3.1. . 22 3.2. . 23 3.2.1. . 23 3.2.2. . 25 3.3. +9DCT . 26 3.3.1. . 27 3.3.2.

5、7DCT9DCT . 28 3.4. . 29 3.4.1. . 29 3.4.2. . 31 4. . 33 5. . 33 3 / 36 1 . 5 2 . 6 3 . 7 4 . 8 5 . 8 6 . 8 72019 . 8 8 . 9 9 . 9 10. 9 11 . 9 12 . 10 13 . 10 14 . 10 1520112014 .11 1620112014SUV .11 1720112014SUV .11 1820112014ASUV .11 192011-2014 . 12 202011-2014 . 12 212011-2014 . 12 222011-2014 .

6、 12 2320112015GDP% . 13 242015H16-8 . 14 252010-2015. 14 262015 . 14 272015H2 . 16 282015H2 . 16 2920162017 . 17 30SUV . 18 31SUV. 18 32SUV . 18 332015SUV . 18 34SUV . 19 35SUV . 19 362016-2017 . 20 372016-2017. 20 38GDP% . 20 39. 20 402018H2-2019H1 . 22 412018H2-2019H1. 22 42 . 23 43 . 24 4 / 36 44

7、MQB . 25 45MQBA0C. 25 46H6 . 26 47H6 . 26 48 . 26 49 . 26 50 . 27 51 . 27 524N20 . 28 537DCT . 28 547DCT . 28 559DCT . 29 569DCT . 29 57. 29 58L6 . 30 59NCMA. 30 60 . 31 61i-Pilot . 32 1 . 6 2 . 7 320102015. 13 42015 . 15 52015. 16 6 . 17 720162017. 19 82018. 21 920197 . 21 10PQ. 24 11 . 25 12. 27 1

8、3 . 30 142025 . 31 15 . 32 5 / 36 1. SUV SUV20032011 1984 WEY SUV 1 1.1. 56.04% SUV WEY SUV 100 2014 6 / 36 2 56.04%33.96%10.00% 62.85% 99.00%0.12% 1.2. SUV SUV SUV H2H4H5H6H7H9F5F7M6WEYVV5 VV6VV7iQR1 1 A00 A0 A B C R1 iQ SUV H2 H4H5H6 F5F7M6 WEY VV5WEY VV6 H7 WEY VV7 H9 2019124/ KD 7 / 36 2 / 70 30

9、 16 16 10 10 10 8 / KD 3 1.3. 201148.672019 107.63SUV20112016 17.13%20172019 100 2019 4.32%0.38 11.24%1.69 8 / 36 4 5 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 SUV SUV2014S

10、UVSUV 2019SUV 95% H6H6 SUV2019H6 38.6442.39% 6 72019 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CARMPVSUV 42.39% H6F7M6VV6H2R1 H4F5VV5VV7H9H7 iQC30H5H1P8 1.4. 20112016 2011 300.892016986.1626.80%2017 20191000 2019962.113.04% 20172017 9 / 36 SUV 2017201944.97 13.64% 8 9 -10% 0

11、% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Wind Wind 20112016 25%10%2017 2019 16.22%4.76% 2019 4.05%4.85%-0.36% 10 11 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

12、 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Wind Wind 1.5. 10 / 36 201942.48 7.30%4.47%1.7 30% 12 13 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0% 10% 20%

13、30% 40% 50% 60% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Wind Wind 14 2. 2.1. 2011-2014SUV 2.1.1. SUV 2011-2014SUV 20111252.0620141846.70 SUV2011164.25 410.5835.72% 11 / 36 15 20112014 16 20112014SUV 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2011 201

14、2 2013 2014 YOY 0% 20% 40% 60% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2011 2012 2013 2014 SUVYOY SUV 20112014SUV201161.07 2014185.11 ASUV 2011201420112014ASUV H6 H5 1720112014SUV 1820112014ASUV 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2011 2012 2013 2014 SUVYOY 69.7 25.9 16.6 1

15、4.6 12.1 12.0 11.7 10.9 10.1 8.1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 H6 H5 GS5 GX7 X80 V5 5 2.1.2. SUV20112014 12 / 36 2011281.782014593.46 28.18% 20112014SUVSUV 2014SUVSUV ASP2011 6.0820148.35 192011-2014 202011-2014 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 2011H1 2011H2 2012H1 2012H2 2013H1 2