ChatGPT 能幫你規劃退休生活嗎？生成式 AI 和財務建議.pdf

《ChatGPT 能幫你規劃退休生活嗎？生成式 AI 和財務建議.pdf》由會員分享，可在線閱讀，更多相關《ChatGPT 能幫你規劃退休生活嗎？生成式 AI 和財務建議.pdf（27頁珍藏版）》請在三個皮匠報告上搜索。

1、Can ChatGPT Plan Your Retirement?Generative AI and Financial AdviceJillian RossPhD Student,CSAIL+Laboratory of Financial Engineering9th International Pension Research Association ConferenceJune 12,20242Starting to plan for retirement at 24 is a smart move.Here are some steps you can take:1.Understan

2、d Your Financial Situation Track Your Expenses and Income:Create a budget to see where your money goes.Emergency Fund:Ensure you have an emergency fund that covers 3-6 months of living expenses.2.Set Retirement Goals Retirement Age:Decide the age you wish to retire.Lifestyle:Think about the lifestyl

3、e you want in retirement and estimate the costs.3.Open Retirement Accounts Employer-Sponsored Plans:If you have a part-time job or any employment,contribute to a 401(k)or similar plan,especially if there is a matching contribution from the employer.Individual Retirement Accounts(IRAs):Open a Roth IR

4、A or Traditional IRA.Roth IRAs are often recommended for young people due to tax-free withdrawals in retirement.Can LLMs Be Trusted Retirement Advisors?Can ChatGPT Plan Your Retirement?Generative AI and Financial Advice.Jillian Ross.June 2024.I am a 24 year old PhD student starting to plan for my re

5、tirement.What should I do?MeChatGPT3Sample Financial Plan1.Current Age:242.Target Retirement Age:403.Years to Retirement:164.Estimated Annual Retirement Expenses:$40,000(adjusted for inflation)5.Retirement Fund Needed:$40,000 x 25=$1,000,0006.Annual Savings Required:Calculate based on current saving

6、s,expected investment returns,and additional savings needed to reach$1,000,000.Can LLMs Be Trusted Retirement Advisors?Can ChatGPT Plan Your Retirement?Generative AI and Financial Advice.Jillian Ross.June 2024.Id live to retire at 40 and live on an island in the Caribbean.MeChatGPT41.Start saving an

7、d investing as early as possible2.Take advantage of tax-advantaged retirement accounts like 401(k)s or IRAs if you have any income.If you get a stipend or have a side income,live frugally and bank as much as you can into retirement accounts.Lifestyle inflation is tempting for new earners.3.Invest in

8、 low-cost index funds that track the total stock market.Over long periods,these tend to outperform most actively managed funds.4.Understand your risk tolerance and asset allocation.As a young investor,you can likely take on more stock market risk for higher potential returns.5.Plan to gradually incr

9、ease your retirement contributions as your income grows after graduating and landing a job.6.Take advantage of any employer retirement contributions or matches once you are employed.8.Avoid racking up high-interest debt like credit cards that will undermine your savings efforts.The key is to start t

10、he habit of consistent investing for retirement from a young age.Even modest amounts invested over 40+years can grow enormously.Can LLMs Be Trusted Retirement Advisors?Can ChatGPT Plan Your Retirement?Generative AI and Financial Advice.Jillian Ross.June 2024.I am a 24 year old PhD student starting t

11、o plan for my retirement.What should I do?MeClaude 3 Sonnet5Can LLMs Be Trusted Retirement Advisors?1.Domain Expertise 2.Personalization3.Ethics,Trust,+Fiduciary DutyCan ChatGPT Plan Your Retirement?Generative AI and Financial Advice.Jillian Ross.June 2024.61.Domain Expertise2.Personalization3.Ethic

12、s,Trust,+Fiduciary DutyPrimer:LLM FundamentalsCan ChatGPT Plan Your Retirement?Generative AI and Financial Advice.Jillian Ross.June 2024.Artificial Intelligence(AI)GenerativeAILarge Language Models(LLMs)An AI system is any system that exhibits intelligenceGenerative AI is a type of AI system that ge

13、nerates new content,i.e.images,videos,textLarge Language Models(LLMs)are AI systems that analyze or generate natural languageData:billions of text examples Algorithms:billions of learnable parametersCompute:thousands of GPUs71.Domain Expertise2.Personalization3.Ethics,Trust,+Fiduciary DutyPrimer:LLM

14、 FundamentalsCan ChatGPT Plan Your Retirement?Generative AI and Financial Advice.Jillian Ross.June 2024.Stable Diffusion XL,Stability AIAn AI system is any system that exhibits intelligenceGenerative AI is a type of AI system that generates new content,i.e.images,videos,textLarge Language Models(LLM

15、s)are AI systems that analyze or generate natural languageData:billions of text examples Algorithms:billions of learnable parametersCompute:thousands of GPUs81.Domain Expertise2.Personalization3.Ethics,Trust,+Fiduciary DutyPrimer:LLM FundamentalsCan ChatGPT Plan Your Retirement?Generative AI and Fin

16、ancial Advice.Jillian Ross.June 2024.Artificial Intelligence(AI)GenerativeAILarge Language Models(LLMs)An AI system is any system that exhibits intelligenceGenerative AI is a type of AI system that generates new content,i.e.images,videos,textLarge Language Models(LLMs)are AI systems that analyze or

17、generate natural languageData:billions of text examples Algorithms:billions of learnable parametersCompute:thousands of GPUsChatbots91.Domain Expertise2.Personalization3.Ethics,Trust,+Fiduciary DutyPrimer:LLM FundamentalsCan ChatGPT Plan Your Retirement?Generative AI and Financial Advice.Jillian Ros

18、s.May 2024.To learn natural language,most LLMs are trained on a masked language modeling taskFoundation models like OpenAIs GPT 4 and Anthropics Claude 3 are general LLMs that are trained on a wide variety of textFoundation models can be“fine-tuned”to be specialized for a particular domainLLMTheMASK

19、atelunchadvisors1010Can LLMs Be Trusted Retirement Advisors?1.Domain Expertise 2.Personalization3.Ethics,Trust,+Fiduciary DutyCan ChatGPT Plan Your Retirement?Generative AI and Financial Advice.Jillian Ross.June 2024.111.Domain Expertise2.Personalization3.Ethics,Trust,+Fiduciary DutyDomain Expertise

20、Financial advising is governed by a global professional association,the Certified Financial Planning(CFP)Board,among othersThe CFP has established a set of practical standards that define the general roles of a financial advisorWe need to ensure that LLMs have an adequate level of domain expertise t

21、o pass relevant certification examsCan ChatGPT Plan Your Retirement?Generative AI and Financial Advice.Jillian Ross.June 2024.121.Domain Expertise2.Personalization3.Ethics,Trust,+Fiduciary DutyRetrieval Augmented Generation(RAG)Unlocks Domain ExpertiseCan ChatGPT Plan Your Retirement?Generative AI a

22、nd Financial Advice.Jillian Ross.June 2024.By default,LLMs struggle with certification exams.How can we achieve better performance?Instead of relying on internal knowledge,we connect LLMs to tools and databases through Retrieval Augmented Generation(RAG)We equip LLMs with core reasoning capabilities

23、,and they serve as a reasoning engine between the client and different databases and tools131.Domain Expertise2.Personalization3.Ethics,Trust,+Fiduciary DutyPersonalizationPersonality plays an instrumental role in determining whether financial advisors can form such a relationship with a clientEach

24、client needs advice delivered in a way that is sensitive to the individuals needs and communication styleQualitative properties readability,sentiment,and verbosity affect a clients uptake of adviceCan ChatGPT Plan Your Retirement?Generative AI and Financial Advice.Jillian Ross.June 2024.14MetricsRea

25、dability Default:college levelSentimentVerbosity Default:neutral to positive tone What tone should LLMs convey advice with?Our answer:sympathetic pattern matching Estimate client state of mind/mood If extreme,attempt to counterweight Else,match the client tone Default:1-2 paragraphs1.Domain Expertis

26、e2.Personalization3.Ethics,Trust,+Fiduciary DutyCan ChatGPT Plan Your Retirement?Generative AI and Financial Advice.Jillian Ross.June 2024.15Ethics,Trust,+Fiduciary Duty1.Domain Expertise2.Personalization3.Ethics,Trust,+Fiduciary DutyAll financial professionals must commit to upholding some form of

27、a standard of conductThe principal ethical issue regarding financial advisory LLMs is whether they have the best interests of the retail investor in mind when providing adviceThis is called the alignment problem in AI researchIf we want LLMs to be true partners to clients and advisors,LLMs need to b

28、e aligned with human behavior when appropriateCan ChatGPT Plan Your Retirement?Generative AI and Financial Advice.Jillian Ross.June 2024.161.Domain Expertise2.Personalization3.Ethics,Trust,+Fiduciary DutyHow Aligned are LLMs with Humans?Inequity AversionCan ChatGPT Plan Your Retirement?Generative AI

29、 and Financial Advice.Jillian Ross.June 2024.Ultimatum game:two player game with a proposer and responderAsk the LLM to offer money as a proposer or accept/reject as a responderResponderProposer“I accept”“I offer you$4 out of$10”$10Guth et al.1982171.Domain Expertise2.Personalization3.Ethics,Trust,+

30、Fiduciary DutyHow Aligned are LLMs with Humans?Inequity AversionCan ChatGPT Plan Your Retirement?Generative AI and Financial Advice.Jillian Ross.June 2024.Utility function modeled by Fehr-Schmidt:!,=!max(!,0)max(!,0)“Guilt”parameter“Envy”parameterPlayer Player#181.Domain Expertise2.Personalization3.

31、Ethics,Trust,+Fiduciary DutyHow Aligned are LLMs with Humans?Inequity AversionCan ChatGPT Plan Your Retirement?Generative AI and Financial Advice.Jillian Ross.June 2024.LLMs have similar guilt parameter but lower envy parameter compared to humansSee upcoming publication:LLM economicus?Mapping the Be

32、havioral Biases of LLMs via Utility TheoryJ.Ross,Y.Kim,A.LoCOLM 20241919Can LLMs Be Trusted Retirement Advisors?1.Domain Expertise 2.Personalization3.Ethics,Trust,+Fiduciary DutyCan ChatGPT Plan Your Retirement?Generative AI and Financial Advice.Jillian Ross.June 2024.20Can LLMs Be Trusted Retiremen

33、t Advisors?If you are interested in our research,email:jillianrmit.eduNot yet-but theres a path forward.Professor Andrew W.LoNina Gerszberg21AppendixEthics,Trust,+Fiduciary Duty 221.Domain Expertise2.Personalization3.Ethics,Trust,+Fiduciary DutyHow Aligned are LLMs with Humans?Risk+Loss AversionCan

34、ChatGPT Plan Your Retirement?Generative AI and Financial Advice.Jillian Ross.June 2024.Gambling game:ask the LLM to gamble with gains and lossesUtility function modeled in prospect theory:“Choose between$500 with 33%probability and$600 with 35%probability.”=0if 0()if 0 =&(+(1 )&)&!,=:()Probability d

35、istortion factorLoss aversion coefficientRisk aversion coefficientKahneman and Tversky 1992231.Domain Expertise2.Personalization3.Ethics,Trust,+Fiduciary DutyHow Aligned are LLMs with Humans?Risk+Loss AversionCan ChatGPT Plan Your Retirement?Generative AI and Financial Advice.Jillian Ross.June 2024.

36、LLMs are more economically rational at assessing probabilities than humansLossesGainsSee upcoming publication:LLM economicus?Mapping the Behavioral Biases of LLMs via Utility TheoryJ.Ross,Y.Kim,A.LoCOLM 2024See upcoming publication:LLM economicus?Mapping the Behavioral Biases of LLMs via Utility The

37、oryJ.Ross,Y.Kim,A.LoCOLM 2024241.Domain Expertise2.Personalization3.Ethics,Trust,+Fiduciary DutyHow Aligned are LLMs with Humans?Risk+Loss AversionCan ChatGPT Plan Your Retirement?Generative AI and Financial Advice.Jillian Ross.June 2024.LLMs are more economically rational at assessing probabilities

38、 than humansLLMs exhibit lower risk aversion towards gains than humansSee upcoming publication:LLM economicus?Mapping the Behavioral Biases of LLMs via Utility TheoryJ.Ross,Y.Kim,A.LoCOLM 2024251.Domain Expertise2.Personalization3.Ethics,Trust,+Fiduciary DutyHow Aligned are LLMs with Humans?Time Dis

39、countingCan ChatGPT Plan Your Retirement?Generative AI and Financial Advice.Jillian Ross.June 2024.Waiting game:ask the LLM its immediate equivalent for delayed paymentsUtility function modeled as hyperbolic time discounting:“Choose between$500 now or$1000 5 years from now”,=1+Discount factorThaler

40、1981,Rachlin et al.1991261.Domain Expertise2.Personalization3.Ethics,Trust,+Fiduciary DutyHow Aligned are LLMs with Humans?Time DiscountingCan ChatGPT Plan Your Retirement?Generative AI and Financial Advice.Jillian Ross.June 2024.Waiting game:ask the LLM its immediate equivalent for delayed payments

41、Utility function modeled as hyperbolic time discounting:“Choose between$500 now or$1000 5 years from now”,=1+Discount factorPhoto Credit:PsychMattersLLM271.Domain Expertise2.Personalization3.Ethics,Trust,+Fiduciary DutyHow Aligned are LLMs with Humans?Time DiscountingCan ChatGPT Plan Your Retirement?Generative AI and Financial Advice.Jillian Ross.June 2024.LLMs exhibit stronger time discounting than humansSee upcoming publication:LLM economicus?Mapping the Behavioral Biases of LLMs via Utility TheoryJ.Ross,Y.Kim,A.LoCOLM 2024