信息架構對退休儲蓄減少的影響.pdf

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1、The Impact of Information Architecture on Retirement Savings DecumulationSusan Thorp9th International Pension Research Association Conference,Paris,June 2024Research team Rochelle Nian(Psych.UNSW)Hazel Bateman(Act.UNSW)Isabella Dobrescu(Econ.UNSW)Ben Newell(Psych.UNSW)Susan Thorp(Finance USyd)Acknow

2、ledgements and Disclaimer:This research is supported by ARC Linkage Project 190100732 with Partner Cbus.The research is preliminary,has not been peer-reviewed and is not for circulation.Australian retirees have incentives to over-spend.In fact,the median retiree adds to their pension savings.Percent

3、age change in retirement savings account balance over 11 yearsSource:Reeson et al.(2016)Tax data from regulated retirement plans,2004-14“Evidence suggests varied reasons for low drawdowns.Retirees often do not have access to the right tools to assess what drawdown amount is best for their circumstan

4、ces.Retirees may default to the minimum amount as a rule of thumb when faced with choice overload,concerns about the cost of aged care and medical expenses,or concerns about the risk of running out of savings.Some retirees may have minimum drawdown rates effectively chosen for them by their fund and

5、 are unaware they can even vary the rate of their superannuation pension.”What?Slow or no decumulation(Brsch-Supan 2003;Love et al.2009;Poterba et al.2011;Ooijen et al.2014;Asher et al.2017)Post-work saving(Reeson et al.2016;Olafsson and Pagel 2018)Why?Precaution;maintain lifestyle;longevity(Alonso-

6、Garca et al.2022)Bequests and gifts;medical expenses(De Nardi et al.2015;De Nardi et al.2021)Simplification strategies(Bateman et al.2017;Balnozan et al.2020)Similar issues for many pension systems.Research Question:How can we:“enable members to make the mindset shift necessary to confidently draw d

7、own on their superannuation in retirement”?Retirement Spending ProjectionsLump Sum(Wealth)ProjectionIncome Stream Projection“If you continue to withdraw at this level then.Estimated balance at age 92:$100,000Estimated average annual payment from age 67 to age 92:$25,000Spending“Anchors”and Retiremen

8、t ProjectionsIncome Stream ProjectionHypothesis:The combination of high$anchors(recommendations)and income stream projections will lead people to draw down savings fastestEstimated average annual payment from age 67 to age 92:$25,000The Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia(ASFA)recommend

9、s that the minimum annual cost of a comfortable retirement is$45,239High and Low Value AnchorsThree ExperimentsN=1600 participants(Age 55-67;super members)Experiment 1(n=400):Income Streams&Lump SumsExperiment 2(n=800):Income Streams,Informative AnchorsExperiment 3(n=400):Income Streams,Numeric Anch

10、ors The University of SydneyParticipants see their current balance,investment return and mandatory minimum withdrawal amount.Please review the information below carefully.Assume this is your current situation.Information about you and your retirement accountAge67Current retirement account balance$35

11、0,000Annual rate of return3%p.a.Minimum withdrawal$17,500No Projection(Current Balance)*Ten choice sets from age 67(choice 1)to age 91(choice 10)Level of WithdrawalMinimumMinimum+$5,000Minimum+$10,000Minimum+$15,000Minimum+$20,000How much of your retirement account balance would you like to withdraw

12、 this year?If you continue to select this withdrawal level,you will have:$122,695 left in your account at age 92$16,063 per year to spend,on average,from your retirement account between the age of 67 and 92Minimum OptionIncome Stream ProjectionWealth ProjectionYou may also be eligible for up to$24,5

13、50 per year of Age Pension from the government as your balance runs downLevel of WithdrawalMinimumMinimum+$5,000Minimum+$10,000Minimum+$15,000Minimum+$20,000How much of your retirement account balance would you like to withdraw this year?Minimum OptionYou may also be eligible for up to$24,550 per ye

14、ar of Age Pension from the government as your balance runs down You may also be eligible for up to$24,550 per year of Age Pension from the government as your superannuation runs down The Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia(ASFA)recommends that the minimum annual cost of a comfortable re

15、tirement is$45,239$16,063 per year to spend,on average,from your retirement account between the age of 67 and 92If you continue to select this withdrawal level,you will have:Experiment 1:Average withdrawal over time is faster for the income projection.Experiment 2:High informative anchor induces fas

16、ter withdrawals.Experiment 3:A high numeric anchor induces faster withdrawals.ConclusionsProviding annual spending targets influences rates of drawdownAny kind of information moves people away from minimum levelIncome Streams raise spending Informative High Anchors(ASFA)raise spendingNumeric High($4

17、5K)Anchors raise spendingAll effects are statistically small but potentially scalable.Thank you for your attention.Participant Feedback:“Because I come from humble beginnings and have centenarians in my immediate familyI fear I will always be cautious with my Super-but I take the point with your surveyit may not be as bad as I think.”