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1、 Table_yemei1 觀點聚焦 Investment Focus Table_yejiao1 本研究報告由海通國際分銷,海通國際是由海通國際研究有限公司,海通證券印度私人有限公司,海通國際株式會社和海通國際證券集團其他各成員單位的證券研究團隊所組成的全球品牌,海通國際證券集團各成員分別在其許可的司法管轄區內從事證券活動。關于海通國際的分析師證明,重要披露聲明和免責聲明,請參閱附錄。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer) 研究報告 Research Report 3 Jul 2022 東方海外國際東方海
2、外國際 Orient Overseas International (316 HK) 首次覆蓋:打造優秀班輪公司,集運市場大有可為 To be Excellent Liner Company with Promising Performance in Container Shipping: Initiation Table_Info 首次覆蓋優于大市首次覆蓋優于大市Initiate with OUTPERFORM 評級 優于大市 OUTPERFORM 現價 HK$208.00 目標價 HK$377.04 市值 HK$137.36bn / US$17.50bn 日交易額 (3 個月均值) US$
3、59.21mn 發行股票數目 660.37mn 自由流通股 (%) 15% 1 年股價最高最低值 HK$279.40-HK$94.90 注:現價 HK$208.00 為 2022 年 7 月 1 日收盤價 資料來源: Factset 1mth 3mth 12mth 絕對值 -17.5% 11.7% 65.6% 絕對值(美元) -17.4% 11.4% 63.9% 相對 MSCI China -24.0% 10.4% 98.3% Table_Profit (US$ mn) Dec-21A Dec-22E Dec-23E Dec-24E 營業收入 16,833 23,121 19,608 17,8
4、85 (+/-) 105% 37% -15% -9% 凈利潤 7,128 10,570 8,393 7,565 (+/-) 690% 48% -21% -10% 全面攤薄 EPS (US$) 10.79 16.01 12.71 11.46 毛利率 48.6% 51.9% 49.2% 48.4% 凈資產收益率 73.7% 68.3% 41.5% 31.1% 市盈率 2 2 2 2 資料來源:公司信息, HTI (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 集運行業短期高景氣度持續,發展機遇猶在集運行業短期高景氣度持續,發展機遇猶在。集裝箱運輸是全球貿易往
5、來中不可缺少的環節,集運行業自 2020 年下半年以來,進入高景氣階段,運價一路攀升。疫情以來集裝箱航運供需錯配,運價高漲。我們認為今年高景氣性仍有持續的趨勢,年初運價雖有回落但依然維持高位,供需均衡仍處于較脆弱階段。目前美國零售庫銷比仍處于歷史較低階段,零售銷量還在上漲,且隨著國內個別地區新一輪解封后的復工復產,以及歐美傳統商品旺季的來臨,港口擁堵程度或將持續。我們認為短期運價繼續高位波動的可能性更大,中長期或穩定在合理價位,但仍會高于疫情前水平。 公司公司深耕深耕集裝箱運輸和物流服務集裝箱運輸和物流服務,運營資歷深厚運營資歷深厚。公司以貨柜運輸及物流為主營業務,長期以來一直致力于成為最優秀
6、和最具創新精神的國際集裝箱運輸和物流服務供應商,為世界貿易提供聯結。受益于運價的提升和公司的良好運營,公司 21 年業績突出,全年共實現經營收入 168.32 億美元,同比增長 105%,實現歸母凈利潤 71.28 億美元,同比增長 689%。雖然單箱成本同比增長,但公司成本管控能力仍較優。 多項優勢突出,多項優勢突出,公司公司未來未來成長性成長性值得期待值得期待。盡管行業已進入成熟階段,整體同質化程度較高,但相比較之下,我們認為公司仍有較多亮點可尋,為其中長期的發展繼續提供增長空間。1)與中遠海運集團優勢互補,雙品牌運營下協同效應強;2)身處海洋聯盟,有利于提高業務競爭力;3)公司盈利能力強
7、,且高派息率更有吸引力。 主要盈利預測及假設主要盈利預測及假設:考慮到未來業績的波動性,我們預計公司2022-2024 年歸母凈利潤分別為 105.70/83.93/75.65 億美元,EPS 分別為 16.01/12.71/11.46 美元,基于美元兌港幣匯率 7.85,給予2022 年 3 倍 PE,對應目標價 377.04 港幣,首次覆蓋給予“優于大市”評級。 風險提示風險提示:貿易需求不及預期,運價不及預期,燃油成本持續上漲 虞楠虞楠 Nan Yu 50100150200250Price ReturnMSCI ChinaJul-21Nov-21Mar-22Volume 3 Jul 20
8、22 2 Table_header1 東方海外國際 (316 HK) 首次覆蓋優于大市首次覆蓋優于大市 集運行業:短期高景氣度持續,發展機遇猶在集運行業:短期高景氣度持續,發展機遇猶在 集運行業自帶周期屬性。集運行業自帶周期屬性。集裝箱運輸是全球貿易往來中不可缺少的環節,其主要服務于工業品制造商和消費者,運輸貨物為件雜貨,包括紡織品、機電設備、輕工制品等。區別于油輪運輸、干散貨船運輸的不定期性,集運以班輪的形式進行運輸,且行業承運人較為集中,份額更趨向于頭部化。 作為全球供應鏈重要的組成部分,集運行業不可避免地與全球經濟周期緊密相連,周期變動帶來的供需轉變也決定了集運市場的整體表現。集運自 2
9、020 年下半年以來,再次進入高景氣階段,運價一路攀升,盈利能力大幅提升。本次運價上漲始于疫情過后需求的釋放,疊加有效供給不足,兩者同時作用下,供需剪刀差一再被拉大。 疫情以來集裝箱航運供需錯配,運價高漲。疫情以來集裝箱航運供需錯配,運價高漲。20年年初新冠疫情來襲,上半年全球經濟受損嚴重,導致 20 年全球商品貿易量同比下降 5.4%,其中海運貿易量下降 3.8%。 需求方面,自 20 年下半年開始,一方面隨著初期復工復產,各國積壓多時的補庫存需求涌現,另一方面,為緩解疫情給經濟帶來的下行壓力,各國紛紛以量化寬松政策來應對,通過財政擴張手段刺激經濟復蘇。特別是美國作為世界第一大貨物進口國,在
10、疫情沖擊后推行大力度的財政政策,有效帶動了貿易需求的增長,美線運價率先開始反彈,消費需求持續走高之下,20 年第三季度集裝箱貿易和干散貨商品交易量已較年初率先得到恢復。 供給方面,年初疫情嚴重時運力幾乎處于停運狀態,后續需求集中爆發后,港口擁堵、集裝箱短缺、內陸運輸遲滯等問題使得供給繼續緊張。21 年供需錯配的局面并未解決,且隨著 3 月蘇伊士運河貨輪擱淺事故,進一步加劇供需矛盾,有力支撐運價高漲。根據 Clarkson 統計,2021 年全球集裝箱海運量同比增長 6.5%,而全球運力增長只有 4.5%。 圖圖1 集運運價影響因素集運運價影響因素 資料來源:HTI oXcZvXcVlVkUiX
11、tV8ZmN9PbPbRoMoOmOsQjMrRoRlOoOtO6MnMqQvPsQvNwMtRtQ 3 Jul 2022 3 Table_header1 東方海外國際 (316 HK) 首次覆蓋優于大市首次覆蓋優于大市 今年年初高景氣性持續,供需均衡仍處于較脆弱階段。今年年初高景氣性持續,供需均衡仍處于較脆弱階段。經歷 2021 年全球集裝箱航運的火熱行情,今年年初運價雖有回落但依然維持高位。需求端,據 IMF 預測,2022 年全球貿易量增速為 6.7%,發達國家進口需求并未減弱,預計發達國家進口量增速為 7.3%。同時,作為 21 年熱門航線的亞洲北美航線,目前美國零售庫銷比仍處于歷史較
12、低階段,但零售銷量還在上漲,有利于繼續推動美線貨運需求。 供給端,此前導致供應鏈不暢的境外港口疏港和集裝箱供給方面,根據 Clarkson全球集裝箱擁堵指數,截止 5 月中旬,全球在港集裝箱船運力占比接近 37%,仍高于新冠疫情前 31%的平均水平。我們認為,隨著國內個別地區新一輪解封后的復工復產,以及歐美傳統商品旺季的來臨,擁堵程度或將持續。 尤其是美國港口的擁堵問題,目前亞洲北美航線的離港、收發貨準班率都低于其他航線,一方面,亞洲北美航線連結進出口重量級區域,集運貨量增長較快,進出口吞吐量處于高位,另一方面,美國貿易運輸相關的勞動力缺口仍較大,且 21 年 4月以來多個港口頻有罷工事件發生
13、,再加上今年美西碼頭工人的勞資談判,已接近合同到期日但尚無談判結果,我們認為由此引發的效率低下可能使港口擁堵狀況難以緩解。 圖圖2 疫情以來運價變動情況疫情以來運價變動情況 資料來源:wind,HTI 圖圖3 中國出口集裝箱運價指數中國出口集裝箱運價指數(CCFI) 主要航線情況主要航線情況 資料來源:wind,HTI 3 Jul 2022 4 Table_header1 東方海外國際 (316 HK) 首次覆蓋優于大市首次覆蓋優于大市 有效運力方面,由于 2021 年集裝箱船新船訂單創歷史新高,運力交付時間多集中在 20232024 年,因此短期 22 年運力增長有限,并不會出現過剩局面,且
14、隨著碳減排政策趨嚴,加速了老舊船的退出,以及密集訂單下船廠產能的有限,我們認為中長期運力也不會爆發式增長,整體仍在可控狀態。 運價年內或繼續保持高位震蕩。運價年內或繼續保持高位震蕩。近期受俄烏事件擾動,局部港口關閉,以及相關船隊遭到制裁,盡管對集運市場整體影響不大,2020 年俄羅斯和烏克蘭港口合計吞吐量僅占全球集裝箱吞吐量的 0.8%。但此事件影響主要在于后續產生的連鎖反應,包括目前篩選受制裁貨物已導致北歐集裝箱港口擁擠、海關加強檢查導致物流中斷、原油供給降低導致油價上漲、世界局勢動蕩造成通貨膨脹等,都為 22 年市場增添了不確定性。 此外,目前行業頭部化明顯,對運價有一定維持作用。三大聯盟
15、(2M、Ocean 聯盟、THE 聯盟)目前占據有 80%以上的市場份額,可有效控制運力供給以應對需求端的變化。因此,我們認為短期運價繼續高位波動的可能性更大,中長期或穩定在合理價位,但仍會高于疫情前水平。 圖圖4 美國零售商庫存情況美國零售商庫存情況 資料來源:wind,HTI 圖圖5 美國零售商銷售額情況美國零售商銷售額情況 資料來源:wind,HTI 圖圖6 美國零售業貿易運輸相關職位空缺率美國零售業貿易運輸相關職位空缺率 資料來源:wind,HTI 圖圖7 5 月主要航線離港月主要航線離港/收發貨準班率情況收發貨準班率情況 資料來源:上海航運交易所,HTI 3 Jul 2022 5 T
16、able_header1 東方海外國際 (316 HK) 首次覆蓋優于大市首次覆蓋優于大市 東方海外國際:打造優秀班輪公司,集運市場大有可為東方海外國際:打造優秀班輪公司,集運市場大有可為 公司是全球最具規模的集裝箱運輸和物流服務供應商之一。公司是全球最具規模的集裝箱運輸和物流服務供應商之一。公司以貨柜運輸及物流為主營業務,長期以來一直致力于成為最優秀和最具創新精神的國際集裝箱運輸和物流服務供應商,為世界貿易提供聯結。公司 17 年之后被收購進入中遠??仄煜?,目前中遠??赝ㄟ^控制 Faulkner Global Holdings Limited,間接持有公司 71.07%股份,是最大的股東。
17、公司業務運營資歷深厚,公司業務運營資歷深厚,21 年業績突出年業績突出。公司自 1947 年就開始從事海運服務,經過多年深耕,目前業務已覆蓋亞洲、歐洲、美洲、非洲及大洋洲地區多條航線。受益于 21 年的高景氣行情,公司貨柜運輸及物流業務在主要航線上收益頗豐,21 年公司共實現經營收入 168.32 億美元,同比增長 105%,實現歸母凈利潤 71.28 億美元,同比增長 689%。 21 年收入增長主要來自于運價的提高。21 年載貨量同比提升 2%,而單箱收入同比提升 107%。同市場變化一致,由于歐美市場需求面向好,太平洋航線和亞歐航線運價上漲較多,對應航線收入增長幅度也更大。其中,太平洋東
18、行線 21 年載貨量增長 3%,單箱收入增長 92%,亞洲/北歐西行線載貨量增長 9%,單箱收入增長 273%,有力帶動整體收入提升。 圖圖8 公司股權架構情況公司股權架構情況 資料來源:公司公告,wind,HTI 圖圖9 公司營業收入增長情況公司營業收入增長情況 資料來源:wind,HTI 圖圖10 公司凈利潤增長情況公司凈利潤增長情況 資料來源:wind,HTI 3 Jul 2022 6 Table_header1 東方海外國際 (316 HK) 首次覆蓋優于大市首次覆蓋優于大市 單箱成本同比增長,但公司成本管控能力仍較優。單箱成本同比增長,但公司成本管控能力仍較優。公司成本主要由貨柜運輸
19、及物流業務的貨物處理成本、船舶及航程費用、貨柜成本及空箱回流費用、燃油成本組成?;诠玖己玫某杀竟芸?,成本端各項占比整體變動不大,近年單箱成本的變動也較穩定。21 年主營業務營運成本上漲略多,同比增長 31%,但主要是系貨量增長造成的成本端同步的變動,以及燃油成本相對增長較多所致。 單箱成本雖有波動,但增長仍在可控范圍內。在收入端大幅提升的同時,成本的相對剛性為盈利提供了更大的彈性空間。使得公司 21 年貨柜運輸及物流業務毛利大增,同比提高 417%,也彰顯了公司在集運業務領域深耕多年積累的營運實力所在。 公司多項優勢突出,未來發展值得期待。公司多項優勢突出,未來發展值得期待。盡管行業已進入
20、成熟階段,整體同質化程度較高,但相比較之下,我們認為公司仍有較多亮點可尋,為其中長期的發展繼續提供增長空間。 1)與中遠海運集團優勢互補,雙品牌運營下協同效應強。)與中遠海運集團優勢互補,雙品牌運營下協同效應強。 中遠海運集團和東方海外國際集團從18年開始簽有合作協議,雙方就現有業務、燃油、碼頭及設備采購等方面,已保持了近四年的合作。 在業務方面的合作,中遠海運集團主要提供航運網絡和運營服務、物流服務等,公司所在的東方海外國際集團主要提供航運承運人服務、資訊科技服務等。 圖圖11 公司各航線貨運量(萬公司各航線貨運量(萬 TEU) 資料來源:公司公告,HTI 圖圖12 公司各航線收入(百萬美元
21、)公司各航線收入(百萬美元) 資料來源:公司公告,HTI 圖圖13 21 年公司貨柜運輸及物流業務成本構成年公司貨柜運輸及物流業務成本構成 資料來源:公司 2021 年年報,HTI 圖圖14 公司貨柜運輸及物流業務單箱成本增長情況公司貨柜運輸及物流業務單箱成本增長情況 資料來源:公司 2016 年-2021 年年報,HTI 3 Jul 2022 7 Table_header1 東方海外國際 (316 HK) 首次覆蓋優于大市首次覆蓋優于大市 作為行業頭部,中遠海運集團旗下的中遠??剡\力規模強大,營運經驗豐富,而公司運力規模較小,但具有卓越的管理團隊、客戶信賴的品牌和高效的管理制度,特別是 IT
22、 方面,公司利用自身技術優勢,全力襄助中遠海運集團的數字化建設。 雙品牌的協同,有利于船隊營運效率的提升和航線的開拓,目前已取得不少成績。21 年雙品牌在新興市場的箱量同比增幅達到 9%,同時雙品牌驅動下,對歐洲腹地的貨源開發也在不斷深入,21 年中歐陸??炀€箱量同比增長 23%,新增海鐵內外貿通道29條??傮w來看,兩者結合有利于充分發揮全球化網絡優勢,提高彼此競爭力。 另外,在燃油、碼頭、設備、管理等方面的合作上,雙品牌有利于優化船隊結構、優化航路設計、提高航運效率、有效降低油耗,在提高營運效率的同時又有效控制成本,深化集裝箱供應鏈管理能力,不斷增強服務全球客戶的綜合能力。 2)身處海洋聯盟
23、,有利于提高業務競爭力。)身處海洋聯盟,有利于提高業務競爭力。 目前集運行業頭部化明顯,競爭格局偏聯盟性質,目前形成有三大聯盟2M、Ocean 聯盟、THE 聯盟,控制了全球約 83%的市場份額(2021 年),特別是在歐線和美線上影響力較大。公司已于 2017 年加入 Ocean 聯盟,當時的其他成員還包括中遠集運、達飛輪船、長榮海運。 圖圖15 21 年業務總協議下雙方的服務提供情況(百萬美元)年業務總協議下雙方的服務提供情況(百萬美元) 資料來源:公司公告,公司 2021 年年報, HTI 圖圖16 目前集運三大聯盟的構成情況目前集運三大聯盟的構成情況 資料來源:HTI 圖圖17 21
24、年三大聯盟市場份額分布情況年三大聯盟市場份額分布情況 資料來源:Alphaliner,HTI 3 Jul 2022 8 Table_header1 東方海外國際 (316 HK) 首次覆蓋優于大市首次覆蓋優于大市 相比 2M 和 THE 聯盟,Ocean 聯盟航線數量最多,所占據運力規模也最大。21 年其亞洲到美西/美東/北歐/地中海地區一共涉及 31 條航線和 69 個港口。公司作為其中成員之一,有利于通過借力獲得規模優勢,并借助聯盟多航線形成的網絡效應,抵消局部貨量波動帶來的影響,提高自身的抗周期風險能力。另外,通過聯盟形式共同經營航線,也有利于公司進一步控制成本。我們看好未來聯盟性質行業
25、格局的發展,強者恒強,為公司帶來盈利的穩定性。 3)公司盈利能力強,且高派息率有一定吸引力。)公司盈利能力強,且高派息率有一定吸引力。 公司盡管在運力規模遠不及頭部,但得益于與中遠??氐碾p品牌運營,以及背靠Ocean 聯盟的資源優勢,在市場中依然有自己的一席之地,運營能力強,盈利能力爭趕勢頭強勁。 公司資產結構較優,而且基于良好的資金周轉能力,公司凈資產收益率也較高,在運力懸殊較大的情況下,依然能有優秀的盈利能力和運營能力。截至 6月 16日,公司股息率達到 26.4%,高股息率有利于公司與股東共享業績成果,為公司再添吸引力。 圖圖18 運力規模前十大公司占比(運力規模前十大公司占比(2022
26、 年年 6 月)月) 資料來源: Alphaliner, HTI 表表 1 集運行業可比公司關鍵比率比較集運行業可比公司關鍵比率比較 中遠???陽明海運 長榮海運 東方海外國際 ROE(攤?。?) 67.09 70.72 73.14 73.72 EBITDA Margin(%) 43.01 66.53 64.10 47.10 資產負債率(%) 56.76 39.04 41.52 38.97 資產周轉率(倍) 0.97 1.15 1.04 1.27 資料來源:wind,HTI 3 Jul 2022 9 Table_header1 東方海外國際 (316 HK) 首次覆蓋優于大市首次覆蓋優于大市
27、 主要盈利預測及假設主要盈利預測及假設 表表 2 公司營業收入分項預測表(公司營業收入分項預測表(百萬美百萬美元)元) 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 貨柜運輸及物流貨柜運輸及物流業務收入業務收入 8,164 16,807 23,094 19,581 17,857 增速(%) 19.2% 105.9% 37.4% -15.2% -8.8% 其中:太平洋航線其中:太平洋航線 3,001 5,562 8,623 8,244 8,081 增速(%) 19.4% 85.3% 55.0% -4.4% -2.0% 亞洲亞洲/歐洲航線歐洲航線 1,535 4,671 6,378 5,
28、009 4,640 增速(%) 24.5% 204.2% 36.5% -21.5% -7.4% 大西洋航線大西洋航線 597 987 1,413 1,110 1,022 增速(%) 0.6% 65.4% 43.1% -21.4% -7.9% 亞洲區內亞洲區內/澳亞航線澳亞航線 2,328 4,461 5,933 4,507 3,424 增速(%) 20.2% 91.7% 33.0% -24.0% -24.0% 其他其他 703 1,126 747 710 689 增速(%) 22.1% 60.2% -33.6% -5.0% -3.0% 其他業務收入其他業務收入 27 25 26 26 27 增
29、速(%) 1.3% -8.3% 2.6% 2.0% 1.9% 營業收入總計營業收入總計 8,193 16,833 23,121 19,608 17,885 增速(增速(%) 19.1% 105.5% 37.4% -15.2% -8.8% 營業成本總計營業成本總計 6,602 8,657 11,129 9,951 9,231 增速(增速(%) 8.8% 31.1% 28.6% -10.6% -7.2% 毛利率毛利率 19.4% 48.6% 51.9% 49.3% 48.4% 資料來源:公司 2020 年及 2021 年財報,HTI 表表 3 公司盈利預測表(百萬公司盈利預測表(百萬美美元)元)
30、項目項目 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 一、營業總收入 8,191 16,833 23,121 19,608 17,885 二、營業成本 6,602 8,657 11,129 9,951 9,231 三、營業利潤 948 7,344 10,902 8,657 7,804 四、稅前利潤 914 7,337 10,897 8,653 7,799 減:所得稅 11 209 327 260 234 五、凈利潤 903 7,128 10,571 8,393 7,565 六、歸屬母公司所有者凈利潤 903 7,128 10,570 8,393 7,565 總股本(百萬股) 625
31、.79 660.37 660.37 660.37 660.37 全面攤薄每股收益(美元/股) 1.44 10.79 16.01 12.71 11.46 資料來源:公司 2020 年及 2021 年財報,HTI 考慮到未來業績的波動性,我們預計公司 2022-2024 年歸母凈利潤分別為105.70/83.93/75.65 億美元,EPS 分別為 16.01/12.71/11.46 美元,基于美元兌港幣匯率7.85,給予 2022 年 3 倍 PE,對應目標價 377.04 港幣,首次覆蓋給予“優于大市”評級。 3 Jul 2022 10 Table_header1 東方海外國際 (316 HK
32、) 首次覆蓋優于大市首次覆蓋優于大市 表表 4 可比公司盈利預測與估值表可比公司盈利預測與估值表 代碼 簡稱 EPS(元) PE(倍) 2022 2023E 2022 2023E 601919.SH 中遠???6.96 4.35 2.0 3.2 601872.SH 招商輪船 0.56 0.65 10.1 8.7 均值 3.76 2.50 6.1 6.0 資料來源:Wind,HTI,可比公司業績預測來自 wind 一致預期,PE 對應股價為 2022 年 07 月 01 日。 風險提示風險提示:貿易需求不及預期,運價不及預期,燃油成本持續上漲。 3 Jul 2022 11 Table_heade
33、r2 東方海外國際 (316 HK) 首次覆蓋優于大市首次覆蓋優于大市 財務報表分析和預測 Table_ForecastInfo 資產負債表資產負債表(百萬美元)(百萬美元) 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 利潤表利潤表(百萬美元)(百萬美元) 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 流動資產 8,452 15,045 18,628 22,232 營業總收入 16,833 23,121 19,608 17,885 現金 3,941 9,695 13,043 16,273 營業成本 8,657 11,129 9,951 9,231 應收賬款 590 797 669 610 營
34、業開支 832 1,090 1,000 850 存貨 153 195 175 162 財務費用 21 18 19 21 其他 3,768 4,357 4,741 5,187 非流動資產 7,395 7,488 7,603 7,813 營業利潤 7,344 10,902 8,657 7,804 固定資產 4,048 4,528 4,984 5,417 利潤總額 7,337 10,897 8,653 7,799 無形資產 2,810 2,447 2,106 1,883 所得稅 209 327 260 234 租金按金 使用權資產 凈利潤 7,128 10,571 8,393 7,565 其他 53
35、8 513 513 513 少數股東損益 0 0 0 0 資產總計 15,847 22,532 26,231 30,045 流動負債 3,296 4,371 3,686 3,333 歸屬母公司凈利潤 7,128 10,570 8,393 7,565 短期借款 39 39 39 39 EBITDA 8,746 11,284 9,042 8,194 應付賬款 242 309 275 254 EPS(美元) 10.79 16.01 12.71 11.46 其他 3,016 4,023 3,372 3,040 非流動負債 2,879 2,682 2,312 2,422 長期借款 212 362 312
36、 272 租賃負債 主要財務比率主要財務比率 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 其他 2,667 2,320 2,000 2,150 成長能力 負債合計 6,175 7,053 5,998 5,754 營業收入 105.47% 37.35% -15.19% -8.79% 少數股東權益 2 2 3 3 營業利潤 674.33% 48.44% -20.59% -9.86% 股本 66 66 66 66 歸屬母公司凈利潤 689.63% 48.29% -20.60% -9.87% 留存收益和資本公積 9,604 15,411 20,164 24,222 獲利能力 歸屬母公司股東權益 9,
37、670 15,477 20,230 24,288 毛利率 48.57% 51.86% 49.25% 48.38% 負債和股東權益 15,847 22,532 26,231 30,045 凈利率 42.35% 45.72% 42.80% 42.30% ROE 73.72% 68.30% 41.49% 31.15% 現金流量表現金流量表(百萬美元)(百萬美元) 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E ROIC 80.06% 66.59% 40.80% 30.77% 經營活動現金流 8,899 11,710 8,388 7,751 償債能力 凈利潤 7,128 10,570 8,393 7,5
38、65 資產負債率 38.97% 31.30% 22.87% 19.15% 折舊攤銷 570 382 385 390 凈負債比率 -38.15% -60.04% -62.73% -65.71% 少數股東權益 0 0 0 0 流動比率 2.56 3.44 5.05 6.67 營運資金變動及其他 1,201 757 -389 -204 速動比率 2.50 3.38 4.99 6.61 營運能力 投資活動現金流 -1,982 -1,293 -1,290 -919 總資產周轉率 1.27 1.20 0.80 0.64 資本支出 -580 -500 -500 -600 應收賬款周轉率 28.52 29.0
39、0 29.30 29.30 其他投資 -1,402 -793 -790 -319 應付賬款周轉率 35.80 36.00 36.20 36.40 每股指標(美元) 籌資活動現金流 -4,367 -4,654 -3,742 -3,595 每股收益 10.79 16.01 12.71 11.46 借款增加 -783 150 -50 -40 每股經營現金 13.48 17.73 12.70 11.74 普通股增加 566 0 0 0 每股凈資產 14.65 23.44 30.64 36.78 已付股利 -3,682 -4,804 -3,692 -3,555 估值比率 其他 -467 0 0 0 P/
40、E 2.26 1.66 2.09 2.31 現金凈增加額 2,543 5,754 3,349 3,230 P/B 1.66 1.13 0.87 0.72 EV/EBITDA 1.42 0.73 0.53 0.19 備注:(1)表中計算估值指標的收盤價日期為 2022 年 07 月 01 日;(2)以上各表均為簡表 資料來源:公司 2021 年財報,HTI 3 Jul 2022 12 Table_header2 東方海外國際 (316 HK) 首次覆蓋優于大市首次覆蓋優于大市 APPENDIX 1 Summary The high prosperity of container shipping
41、 will continue in the short term and there are still opportunities for development. Container shipping is an indispensable part of global trade. Since the second half of 2020, it has entered a high prosperity stage, with freight rates rising all the way. Since the outbreak of COVID-19, container shi
42、pping supply and demand mismatch, which brings high freight rates. We think the high prosperity still has a continuous trend in 2022, although the freight rate fell at the beginning of the year, it still remains high, and the balance between supply and demand is still in a fragile stage. At present,
43、 the retail warehouse sales ratio in the United States is still at a historically low stage, and retail sales are still rising. And with the alleviation of the epidemic in China, as well as the arrival of the traditional commodity season in Europe and the United States, the degree of port congestion
44、 may continue. We believe that in short-term freight rates are more likely to continue to fluctuate at a high level. In the long term, they may stabilize at a reasonable price, but they will still be higher than pre-epidemic levels. The company has deep experience in container shipping and logistics
45、 services. With container transportation and logistics as its main business, the company has been committed to becoming the best and most innovative international container transportation and logistics service provider, providing important links for world trade. Benefiting from the improvement of fr
46、eight rates and the good operation of the company, the company has achieved outstanding performance in 21 years. It achieved an income of US $16.832 billion with 105% yoy, and a net profit of US $7.128 billion with 689% yoy. Although the cost per container increased year-on-year, the companys cost c
47、ontrol ability is still relatively good. With many advantages, the companys growth is worth looking forward to. The industry has entered a mature stage with a high degree of homogeneity, but we believe that the company still has more advantages, which will continue to provide growth space for long t
48、erm development. 1) The company has complementary advantages with COSCO Shipping Group, and dual brand operation is conducive to strong synergy; 2) Being in Ocean Alliance is conducive to improving business competitiveness; 3) The company is highly profitable, and its high payout ratio is more attra
49、ctive. Earnings and valuation: We expect the companys net profit in FY22-24E to be US $10.570/8.393/7.565 bn and EPS to be US $16.01/12.71/11.46, respectively. We assigned FY22PE of 3x and derive the target price of HK $377.04 with a USD/HKD exchange rate assumption of 7.85. We initiate the coverage
50、 with Outperform rating. Risks: trade demand is less than expected, freight rates are less than expected, fuel costs continue to rise, etc. 13 Table_APPENDIX Table_disclaimer 附錄附錄APPENDIX 重要信息披露重要信息披露 本研究報告由海通國際分銷,海通國際是由海通國際研究有限公司(HTIRL),Haitong Securities India Private Limited (HSIPL),Haitong Inter
51、national Japan K.K. (HTIJKK)和海通國際證券有限公司(HTISCL)的證券研究團隊所組成的全球品牌,海通國際證券集團(HTISG)各成員分別在其許可的司法管轄區內從事證券活動。 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES This research report is distributed by Haitong International, a global brand name for the equity research teams of Haitong International Research Limited (“HTIRL”), Haitong Sec
52、urities India Private Limited (“HSIPL”), Haitong International Japan K.K. (“HTIJKK”), Haitong International Securities Company Limited (“HTISCL”), and any other members within the Haitong International Securities Group of Companies (“HTISG”), each authorized to engage in securities activities in its
53、 respective jurisdiction. HTIRL分析師認證分析師認證Analyst Certification: 我, 虞楠,在此保證(i)本研究報告中的意見準確反映了我們對本研究中提及的任何或所有目標公司或上市公司的個人觀點,并且(ii)我的報酬中沒有任何部分與本研究報告中表達的具體建議或觀點直接或間接相關;及就此報告中所討論目標公司的證券,我們(包括我們的家屬)在其中均不持有任何財務利益。I, Nan Yu, certify that (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my p
54、ersonal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and (ii) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report; and that I (including members of my househ
55、old) have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed. 利益沖突披露利益沖突披露Conflict of Interest Disclosures 海通國際及其某些關聯公司可從事投資銀行業務和/或對本研究中的特定股票或公司進行做市或持有自營頭寸。就本研究報告而言,以下是有關該等關系的披露事項(以下披露不能保證及時無遺漏,如需了解及時全面信息,請發郵件至ERD-D) HTI and some of its affiliates may engage in in
56、vestment banking and / or serve as a market maker or hold proprietary trading positions of certain stocks or companies in this research report. As far as this research report is concerned, the following are the disclosure matters related to such relationship (As the following disclosure does not ens
57、ure timeliness and completeness, please send an email to ERD-D if timely and comprehensive information is needed). 海通證券股份有限公司和/或其子公司(統稱“海通”)在過去12個月內參與了601919.CH的投資銀行項目。投資銀行項目包括:1、海通擔任上市前輔導機構、保薦人或主承銷商的首次公開發行項目;2、海通作為保薦人、主承銷商或財務顧問的股權或債務再融資項目;3、海通作為主經紀商的新三板上市、目標配售和并購項目。 Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. and
58、/or its subsidiaries (collectively, the Haitong) have a role in investment banking projects of 601919.CH within the past 12 months. The investment banking projects include 1. IPO projects in which Haitong acted as pre-listing tutor, sponsor, or lead-underwriter; 2. equity or debt refinancing project
59、s of 601919.CH for which Haitong acted as sponsor, lead-underwriter or financial advisor; 3. listing by introduction in the new three board, target placement, M&A projects in which Haitong acted as lead-brokerage firm. 601919.CH目前或過去12個月內是海通的投資銀行業務客戶。 601919.CH is/was an investment bank clients of H
60、aitong currently or within the past 12 months. 601919.CH目前或過去12個月內是海通的客戶。海通向客戶提供非投資銀行業務的證券相關業務服務。 601919.CH is/was a client of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months. The client has been provided for non-investment-banking securities-related services. 海通預計將(或者有意向)在未來三個月內從601919.CH獲得投資銀行服務報酬。
61、 Haitong expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from 601919.CH. 海通擔任601919.CH有關證券的做市商或流通量提供者。 Haitong acts as a market maker or liquidity provider in the securities of 601919.CH. 14 評級定義評級定義(從(從2020年年7月月1日開始執行)日開始執行): 海通國際(以下簡稱“H
62、TI”)采用相對評級系統來為投資者推薦我們覆蓋的公司:優于大市、中性或弱于大市。投資者應仔細閱讀HTI的評級定義。并且HTI發布分析師觀點的完整信息,投資者應仔細閱讀全文而非僅看評級。在任何情況下,分析師的評級和研究都不能作為投資建議。投資者的買賣股票的決策應基于各自情況(比如投資者的現有持倉)以及其他因素。 分析師股票評級分析師股票評級 優于大市優于大市,未來12-18個月內預期相對基準指數漲幅在10%以上,基準定義如下 中性中性,未來12-18個月內預期相對基準指數變化不大,基準定義如下。根據FINRA/NYSE的評級分布規則,我們會將中性評級劃入持有這一類別。 弱于大市弱于大市,未來12
63、-18個月內預期相對基準指數跌幅在10%以上,基準定義如下 各地股票基準指數:日本 TOPIX, 韓國 KOSPI, 臺灣 TAIEX, 印度 Nifty100, 美國 SP500; 其他所有中國概念股 MSCI China. Ratings Definitions (from 1 Jul 2020): Haitong International uses a relative rating system using Outperform, Neutral, or Underperform for recommending the stocks we cover to investors. I
64、nvestors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Haitong International Research. In addition, since Haitong International Research contains more complete information concerning the analysts views, investors should carefully read Haitong International Research, in its entirety, a
65、nd not infer the contents from the rating alone. In any case, ratings (or research) should not be used or relied upon as investment advice. An investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances (such as the investors existing holdings) and other considerations. Analy
66、st Stock Ratings Outperform: The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. Neutral: The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad mar
67、ket benchmark, as indicated below. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category. Underperform: The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicate
68、d below. Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows: Japan TOPIX, Korea KOSPI, Taiwan TAIEX, India Nifty100, US SP500; for all other China-concept stocks MSCI China. 評級分布評級分布Rating Distribution 截至截至2022年年3月月31日海通國際股票研究評級分布日海通國際股票研究評級分布 優于大市優于大市 中性中性 弱于大市弱于大市 (持有) 海通國際股票研究覆蓋率 88.9% 9.5%
69、1.6% 投資銀行客戶* 6.8% 5.8% 0.0% *在每個評級類別里投資銀行客戶所占的百分比。 上述分布中的買入,中性和賣出分別對應我們當前優于大市,中性和落后大市評級。 只有根據FINRA/NYSE的評級分布規則,我們才將中性評級劃入持有這一類別。請注意在上表中不包含非評級的股票。 此前的評級系統定義(直至此前的評級系統定義(直至2020年年6月月30日):日): 買入,未來12-18個月內預期相對基準指數漲幅在10%以上,基準定義如下 中性,未來12-18個月內預期相對基準指數變化不大,基準定義如下。根據FINRA/NYSE的評級分布規則,我們會將中性評級劃入持有這一類別。 賣出,未
70、來12-18個月內預期相對基準指數跌幅在10%以上,基準定義如下 各地股票基準指數:日本 TOPIX, 韓國 KOSPI, 臺灣 TAIEX, 印度 Nifty100; 其他所有中國概念股 MSCI China. 15 Haitong International Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of Mar 31, 2022 Outperform Neutral Underperform (hold) HTI Equity Research Coverage 88.9% 9.5% 1.6% IB clients* 6.8% 5.8% 0.0%
71、*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category. BUY, Neutral, and SELL in the above distribution correspond to our current ratings of Outperform, Neutral, and Underperform. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating cate
72、gory. Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table above. Previous rating system definitions (until 30 Jun 2020): BUY: The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. NEUTR
73、AL: The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category. SELL: The stocks total return
74、 over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows: Japan TOPIX, Korea KOSPI, Taiwan TAIEX, India Nifty100; for all other China-concept stocks MSCI China. 海通國際非評級研究:海通國際非評級
75、研究:海通國際發布計量、篩選或短篇報告,并在報告中根據估值和其他指標對股票進行排名,或者基于可能的估值倍數提出建議價格。這種排名或建議價格并非為了進行股票評級、提出目標價格或進行基本面估值,而僅供參考使用。 Haitong International Non-Rated Research: Haitong International publishes quantitative, screening or short reports which may rank stocks according to valuation and other metrics or may suggest pri
76、ces based on possible valuation multiples. Such rankings or suggested prices do not purport to be stock ratings or target prices or fundamental values and are for information only. 海通國際海通國際A股覆蓋股覆蓋:海通國際可能會就滬港通及深港通的中國A股進行覆蓋及評級。海通證券(600837.CH),海通國際于上海的母公司,也會于中國發布中國A股的研究報告。但是,海通國際使用與海通證券不同的評級系統,所以海通國際與海
77、通證券的中國A股評級可能有所不同。 Haitong International Coverage of A-Shares: Haitong International may cover and rate A-Shares that are subject to the Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme with Shanghai and Shenzhen. Haitong Securities (HS; 600837 CH), the ultimate parent company of HTISG based in Shanghai, covers and pu
78、blishes research on these same A-Shares for distribution in mainland China. However, the rating system employed by HS differs from that used by HTI and as a result there may be a difference in the HTI and HS ratings for the same A-share stocks. 海通國際海通國際優質優質100 A股股(Q100)指數指數:海通國際Q100指數是一個包括100支由海通證券覆
79、蓋的優質中國A股的計量產品。這些股票是通過基于質量的篩選過程,并結合對海通證券 A股團隊自下而上的研究。海通國際每季對Q100指數成分作出復審。 Haitong International Quality 100 A-share (Q100) Index: HTIs Q100 Index is a quant product that consists of 100 of the highest-quality A-shares under coverage at HS in Shanghai. These stocks are carefully selected through a qua
80、lity-based screening process in combination with a review of the HS A-share teams bottom-up research. The Q100 constituent companies are reviewed quarterly. MSCI ESG評級免責聲明條款:評級免責聲明條款:盡管海通國際的信息供貨商(包括但不限于MSCI ESG Research LLC及其聯屬公司(ESG方)從其認為可靠的來源獲取信息(信息), ESG方均不擔?;虮WC此處任何數據的原創性,準確性和/或完整性,并明確表示不作出任何明示或默
81、示的擔保,包括可商售性和針對特定目的的適用性。該信息只能供閣下內部使用,不得以任何形式復制或重新傳播,并不得用作任何金融工具、產品或指數的基礎或組成部分。此外,信息本質上不能用于判斷購買或出售何種證券, 或何時購買或出售該證券。即使已被告知可能造成的損害, ESG方均不承擔與此處任何資料有關的任何錯誤或遺漏所引起的任何責任,也不對任何直接、間接、特殊、懲罰性、附帶性或任何其他損害賠償(包括利潤損失)承擔任何責任。 MSCI ESG Disclaimer: Although Haitong Internationals information providers, including witho
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84、 indices. Further, none of the Information can in and of itself be used to determine which securities to buy or sell or when to buy or sell them. None of the ESG Parties shall have any liability for any errors or omissions in connection with any data herein, or any liability for any direct, indirect
85、, special, punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages. 盟浪義利(盟浪義利(FIN-ESG)數據通免責聲明條款:)數據通免責聲明條款:在使用盟浪義利(FIN-ESG)數據之前,請務必仔細閱讀本條款并同意本聲明: 第一條 義利(FIN-ESG)數據系由盟浪可持續數字科技有限責任公司(以下簡稱“本公司”)基于合法取得的公開信息評估而成,本公司對信息的準確性及完整性不作任何保證。對公司的評估
86、結果僅供參考,并不構成對任何個人或機構投資建議,也不能作為任何個人或機構購買、出售或持有相關金融產品的依據。本公司不對任何個人或機構投資者因使用本數據表述的評估結果造成的任何直接或間接損失負責。 第二條 盟浪并不因收到此評估數據而將收件人視為客戶,收件人使用此數據時應根據自身實際情況作出自我獨立判斷。本數據所載內容反映的是盟浪在最初發布本數據日期當日的判斷,盟浪有權在不發出通知的情況下更新、修訂與發出其他與本數據所載內容不一致或有不同結論的數據。除非另行說明,本數據(如財務業績數據等)僅代表過往表現,過往的業績表現不作為日后回報的預測。 第三條 本數據版權歸本公司所有,本公司依法保留各項權利。
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96、to other agreements. If there is any difference between this disclaim and other agreements, this disclaimer shall be applied. 重要免責聲明:重要免責聲明: 非印度證券的研究報告非印度證券的研究報告:本報告由海通國際證券集團有限公司(“HTISGL”)的全資附屬公司海通國際研究有限公司(“HTIRL”)發行,該公司是根據香港證券及期貨條例(第571章)持有第4類受規管活動(就證券提供意見)的持牌法團。該研究報告在HTISGL的全資附屬公司Haitong Internati
97、onal (Japan) K.K.(“HTIJKK”)的協助下發行,HTIJKK是由日本關東財務局監管為投資顧問。 印度證券的研究報告:印度證券的研究報告:本報告由從事證券交易、投資銀行及證券分析及受Securities and Exchange Board of India(“SEBI”)監管的Haitong Securities India Private Limited(“HTSIPL”)所發行,包括制作及發布涵蓋BSE Limited(“BSE”)和National Stock Exchange of India Limited(“NSE”)上市公司(統稱為印度交易所)的研究報告。HT
98、SIPL于2016年12月22日被收購并成為海通國際證券集團有限公司(“HTISG”)的一部分。 所有研究報告均以海通國際為名作為全球品牌,經許可由海通國際證券股份有限公司及/或海通國際證券集團的其他成員在其司法管轄區發布。 本文件所載信息和觀點已被編譯或源自可靠來源,但HTIRL、HTISCL或任何其他屬于海通國際證券集團有限公司(“HTISG”)的成員對其準確性、完整性和正確性不做任何明示或暗示的聲明或保證。本文件中所有觀點均截至本報告日期,如有更改,恕不另行通知。本文件僅供參考使用。文件中提及的任何公司或其股票的說明并非意圖展示完整的內容,本文件并非/不應被解釋為對證券買賣的明示或暗示地
99、出價或征價。在某些司法管轄區,本文件中提及的證券可能無法進行買賣。如果投資產品以投資者本國貨幣以外的幣種進行計價,則匯率變化可能會對投資產生不利影響。過去的表現并不一定代表將來的結果。某些特定交易,包括設計金融衍生工具的,有產生重大風險的可能性,因此并不適合所有的投資者。您還應認識到本文件中的建議并非為您量身定制。分析師并未考慮到您自身的財務情況,如您的財務狀況和風險偏好。因此您必須自行分析并在適用的情況下咨詢自己的法律、稅收、會計、金融和其他方面的專業顧問,以期在投資之前評估該項建議是否適合于您。若由于使用本文件所載的材料而產生任何直接或間接的損失,HTISG及其董事、雇員或代理人對此均不承
100、擔任何責任。 除對本文內容承擔責任的分析師除外,HTISG及我們的關聯公司、高級管理人員、董事和雇員,均可不時作為主事人就本文件所述的任何證券或衍生品持有長倉或短倉以及進行買賣。HTISG的銷售員、交易員和其他專業人士均可向HTISG的相關客戶和公司提供與本文件所述意見相反的口頭或書面市場評論意見或交易策略。HTISG可做出與本文件所述建議或意見不一致的投資決策。但HTIRL沒有義務來確保本文件的收件人了解到該等交易決定、思路或建議。 請訪問海通國際網站 ,查閱更多有關海通國際為預防和避免利益沖突設立的組織和行政安排的內容信息。 非美國分析師披露信息:非美國分析師披露信息:本項研究首頁上列明的
101、海通國際分析師并未在FINRA進行注冊或者取得相應的資格,并且不受美國FINRA有關與本項研究目標公司進行溝通、公開露面和自營證券交易的第2241條規則之限制。 IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER For research reports on non-Indian securities: The research report is issued by Haitong International Research Limited (“HTIRL”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Haitong International Securities Group
102、Limited (“HTISGL”) and a licensed corporation to carry on Type 4 regulated activity (advising on securities) for the purpose of the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571) of Hong Kong, with the assistance of Haitong International (Japan) K.K. (“HTIJKK”), a wholly owned subsidiary of HTISGL and
103、which is regulated as an Investment Adviser by the Kanto Finance Bureau of Japan. For research reports on Indian securities: The research report is issued by Haitong Securities India Private Limited (“HSIPL”), an Indian company and a Securities and Exchange Board of India (“SEBI”) registered Stock B
104、roker, Merchant Banker and Research Analyst that, inter alia, produces and distributes research reports covering listed entities on the BSE Limited (“BSE”) and the National Stock Exchange of India Limited (“NSE”) (collectively referred to as “Indian Exchanges”). HSIPL was acquired and became part of
105、 the Haitong International Securities Group of Companies (“HTISG”) on 22 December 2016. All the research reports are globally branded under the name Haitong International and approved for distribution by Haitong International Securities Company Limited (“HTISCL”) and/or any other members within HTIS
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107、ers within HTISG from which this research report may be received, as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. All opinions expressed herein are as of the date of this research report and are subject to change without notice. This research report is for information purpose only. Descriptions o
108、f any companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this research report is not, and should not be construed expressly or impliedly as, an offer to buy or sell securities. The securities 17 referred to in this research report may not be eligible for purchase or s
109、ale in some jurisdictions. If an investment product is denominated in a currency other than an investors home currency, a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Certain transactions, including those involving de
110、rivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. You should also bear in mind that recommendations in this research report are not tailor-made for you. The analyst has not taken into account your unique financial circumstances, such as your financial situation and ris
111、k appetite. You must, therefore, analyze and should, where applicable, consult your own legal, tax, accounting, financial and other professional advisers to evaluate whether the recommendations suits you before investment. Neither HTISG nor any of its directors, employees or agents accepts any liabi
112、lity whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of the materials contained in this research report. HTISG and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding the analysts responsible for the content of this document, will from time to time have long or short p
113、ositions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research report. Sales, traders, and other professionals of HTISG may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to the relevant clients and the companies within HTISG t
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