2020年7月全球經濟情報執行簡報 - 麥肯錫（英文版）（6頁）.pdf

1、Strategy in China, the indicator showed expansion for a second straight month (51.2) (Exhibit 2). Individual services PMIs reveal expansion only in China (58.4 in June and 55.0 in May); in other countries, the service-sector indicators, though improving, continued to show contraction. Notable is tha

2、t for the eurozone, estimated PMIs for July show a return to expansion for both manufacturing (51.1) and services (55.1). Global trade remains challenged. The CPB World Trade Monitor recorded a contraction of 1.1% in May and 17% for the first five months of 2020 compared with the same periods in 201

3、9 (Exhibit 3). Trade momentum slowed in all surveyed economies on an annual basis, and everywhere remains below pre-COVID-19 levels; on a monthly basis, trade improved in the eurozone, Brazil, and India. The Container Throughput Index was flat, at 107.7 in May (107.8 in April), with elevated through

4、put in Chinese ports only. Exhibit 1 1Data for Brazil and eurozone until May 2020. Source: Banco Central do Brasil; Eurostat; National Bureau of Statistics of China; Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat); US Census Bureau; McKinseys Global Economics Intelligence analysis Retail-sales gr

5、owth by region, % (monthly, year over year) 2010200720152020 20 10 0 10 20 20 10 0 10 20 US China Eurozone Brazil Russia As lockdowns lifted, retail sales became less dismal; sales were clearly positive in the United States, with growth 4.5% higher than in June 2019. 3Global Economics Intelligence e

6、xecutive summary, July 2020 In May, official unemployment rates increased in the eurozone (7.4%), Brazil (12.9%), and Russia (6.1%); the rate declined in the United States but remains historically high (11.1% in June and 13.3% in May). The official rates are understood to be lower than actual unempl

7、oyment in normal times; during a crisis, the disparity can grow. For example, an alternative statistic (U6) kept by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates unemployment at 18.0% in June; an official statistic from Brazil measures working- age employment at only 49.5%. Prices, generally speaking,

8、 have been climbing. Consumer-price inflation edged up in June in advanced economies, while producer prices continue to decline. In emerging economies, food prices in India have kept consumer prices generally elevated there, while the depreciating real in Brazil has affected producer prices. In July

9、, prices rose for most industry commodities and agricultural products. The overall index of food prices increased, as prices of food oils and sugar strongly rebounded after some months of decline. Exhibit 2 1Difusion index, seasonally adjusted (monthly). Source: IHS Markit; McKinseys Global Economic

10、s Intelligence analysis Manufacturing purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) Manufacturing PMIs for May and June 2020 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 2010201520202007 China US June Eurozone Brazil Russia India May 39.8 USEurozoneBrazilRussiaIndiaChina 39.4 38.3 36.2 30.8 50.7 51.2

11、47.2 49.4 51.6 47.4 49.8 Reading 50 indicates expansion; reading 50 indicates contraction The manufacturing purchasing managers indexes for individual surveyed economies recorded significant improvements in June. 4Global Economics Intelligence executive summary, July 2020 Industrial-metals prices ga

12、ined momentum, mainly because of recovering demand from China; oil prices climbed ($43.50 Brent) as OPEC countries reduced production and global demand continues to recover gradually. The gold price has surged in the past week, toward $2,000 per ounce, as investors seek safe haven amid pandemic unce

13、rtainties. Inflation expectations increased but remained at the relatively low levels of 1.3% and 1.4% (as implied in the yield spreads for US Treasury bills and Treasury inflation-protected securities for mid-July). Global equity markets continued to recover in July from the plunges they took early

14、 in the COVID-19 Exhibit 3 June 2019May 2020 vs June 2018May 2019. Source: CPB; McKinseys Global Economics Intelligence analysis CPB World Trade Monitor volume, index (2010 = 100) CPB World Trade Monitor details, May 2020, % change from previous month CPB World Trade Monitor details, May 2020, % cha

15、nge over 12 months 2010200720152020 ADVANCED ExportsImports ExportsImportsExportsImportsExportsImports EMERGINGADVANCEDEMERGING 4.3 2.3 4.6 5.3 4.9 7.3 2.8 3.4 80 90 100 110 120 130 80 90 100 110 120 130 The CPB World Trade Monitor recorded a contraction of 1.1% in May; since the beginning of 2020,

16、trade has contracted 17% from the same period in 2019. 5Global Economics Intelligence executive summary, July 2020 pandemic. On many markets, losses suffered earlier in the year have been nearly erased. The US dollar has lately depreciated against other currencies; the real and the ruble have also l

17、ost value. Fast growth in equity markets and gold prices has resulted in elevated volatility levels (VIX indexes). Except in China, where bond yields have risen in recent weeks, debt markets have remained calm, with most yields moving sideways or declining. Central banks in surveyed economies made n

18、o changes in their policy rates in July. The US Federal Reserve announced on July 29 that it was keeping the rate of 00.25% in place and shall continue to support the economy with its full range of tools, in light of the elevated risks posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. On July 21, the leaders of the E

19、uropean Union agreed on a COVID-19 rescue package worth 750 billion, a significant step forward for the EU, as it marks the first time the bloc has raised debt in common. McKinseys Global Economics Intelligence (GEI) provides macroeconomic data and analysis of the world economy. Each full monthly re

20、lease includes an executive summary on global critical trends and risks as well as focused insights on the latest national and regional developments. View the full report for July 2020 on McK. Detailed visualized data for the global economy, with focused reports on selected individual economies, are

21、 also provided as PDF downloads on McK. The reports are available free to email subscribers and through the McKinsey Insights app. To add a name to our subscriber list, visit McK. GEI is a joint project of McKinseys Strategy Krzysztof Kwiatkowski, a capabilities and insights specialist at the Waltha

22、m Client Capability Hub, where Vivien Singer is a capabilities and insights expert; and Sven Smit, a senior partner in the Amsterdam office. The authors wish to thank Richard Bucci, Debadrita Dhara, Eduardo Doryan, Adrian Grad, Tomasz Mataczynski, Moira Pierce, Raye Qin, Jose Maria Quiros, and Maricruz Vargas for their contributions to this article. 6Global Economics Intelligence executive summary, July 2020