世界經濟論壇：2020年新經濟的儀表盤：為covid-19后疫情時代的復蘇找到新方向 （英文版）（22頁）.pdf

1、Dashboard for a New Economy Towards a New Compass for the Post-COVID Recovery Platform for Shaping the Future of the New Economy and Society October 2020 Dashboard for a New Economy Towards a New Compass for the Post-COVID Recovery Under the umbrella of the World Economic Forums Great Reset initiati

2、ve, this report outlines a general framework for macroeconomic targets beyond GDP growth a Dashboard for a New Economy to serve as a guide for the post-COVID-19 economic recovery and as a starting point for further debate and convergence of targets and approaches among governments and economic polic

3、y-makers globally. Building on findings from the World Economic Forums regular Chief Economists Survey, the report demonstrates the practical relevance of the framework by assessing the current state of the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and policy action based on the proposed dimensio

4、ns of the Dashboard. The report builds on the latest economic policy research as well as extensive consultations with the World Economic Forums Global Future Council on the New Economic Agenda and a growing community of more than 40 leading chief economists from both the public and private sectors,

5、organized by the World Economic Forums Platform for Shaping the Future of the New Economy and Society. 3 Dashboard for a New Economy Contents Introduction 4 Towards a new compass for the post-COVID-19 economy 6 Assessing the current state of economic recovery 9 Prosperity 9 Planet 11 People 12 Insti

6、tutions 12 A call to action 14 Appendix 15 References 17 Acknowledgments 20 Cover: Getty Images/People Images 4 Dashboard for a New Economy Introduction The simultaneous disruption caused by the COVID-19 crisis in nearly every country around the world has forced societies into a moment of pause and

7、reflection on what is truly of value. Rebuilding the post-pandemic economy in this spirit will require a more comprehensive definition of economic success to serve as a guide for the economic recovery. Despite a range of long-standing efforts to define alternative measures of economic progress, reve

8、rting to conventional growth in gross domestic product (GDP) as the core economic policy objective remains a reflex for most governments. Indeed, the latest survey of the Forums Chief Economists Community finds that global progress by governments in implementing multidimensional measures of economic

9、 performance is perceived to be limited at best. In the wake of COVID-19, much energy has gone into trying to predict whether the economic recovery will be “V-shaped”, “U-shaped”, “L-shaped” or “K-shaped”. Yet, targeting a recovery in GDP growth alone will not be sufficient to advance the holistic e

10、conomic, environmental and societal reset that is needed at this moment. Instead, the recovery itself will need to be anchored in such a reset. In line with this ambition, non-financial economic performance measures will need to be 1 The Economist, 2020 2 International Business Council and World Eco

11、nomic Forum, 2020 mainstreamed more fully into economic analyses, implemented more fully by governments and tracked more fully by policy-makers on an ongoing basis along with an updated definition of GDP. The general Dashboard framework and principles presented in this report are an open invitation

12、for governments, economists and other interested stakeholders to come together and work towards a common core set of targets to guide the economic recovery. The purpose of this paper is not to present a new and separate framework, but rather to provide a platform for stakeholders to converge on a co

13、mmon narrative as to what constitutes economic success in the post-pandemic world. Recent traction for non-financial business success metrics has been encouraging and the strong momentum for convergence in the environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) space should be leveraged for a simil

14、ar push to mainstream economic policy metrics beyond GDP at the national level. While there had been a proliferation of ESG targets for businesses, there is now a drive towards convergence of non-financial reporting standards.1 The framework put forward by the World Economic Forums International Bus

15、iness Council in September 2020 has provided important momentum on the road to such further convergence.2 5 Dashboard for a New Economy National-level targets will need to be reported in a similarly disciplined and rigorous way and both sets of metrics firm- and macro-level should ideally be consist

16、ent with each other. The Dashboard proposed in the first part of this report is therefore organized along the four dimensions of prosperity, planet, people, and institutions, following the same overarching structure as the International Business Councils proposal and consistent with the UN Sustainab

17、le Development Goals. It aims to strike a balance between being comprehensive and yet, at the same time, concise enough to serve as a mental model for thinking about the recovery and future progress. In line with this ambition of a more comprehensive and demanding definition of economic success, the

18、 second part of this report presents a multidimensional assessment of the recovery to the extent that data availability allows. 6 Dashboard for a New Economy Towards a new compass for the post-COVID-19 economy Recent years have seen several extensive and rigorous efforts to identify relevant element

19、s of well-being and tackle different dimensions of the measurement question. These include the UNDPs Human Development Index (1990-2020); the comprehensive review of well-being dimensions by Stiglitz, Sen and Fitoussi (2009); the OECDs Better Life project (2018, 2020); the Bennett Institutes Wealth

20、Economy Project (2019); the Recoupling Dashboard (2019); and the World Economic Forums Global Competitiveness Index (1979-2019), Inclusive Development Index (2015, 2017) and Social Mobility Index (2020). Building on and synthesizing this extensive set of work, we propose five core principles to anch

21、or a new narrative and set of policy targets for the post-COVID economy: 1. Balance people, planet, prosperity, institutions and recognize their interlinkages and trade-offs: The framework should be consistent with the UN Sustainable Development Goals and ESG dimensions proposed by the International

22、 Business Council but include a broader set of targets given that governments have more levers to steer the recovery than businesses do.3 A forward-looking agenda and compass will need to anchor a balance between 3 International Business Council and World Economic Forum, 2020 economic, environmental

23、, health and social targets and consider them as inextricably linked. Events in recent years have made clear on national and global scales the close interconnections between the different dimensions of economic progress and well-being such as health and economic outcomes in the current COVID-19 cris

24、is; or environmental and social reform in the case of Frances gilets jaunes protests. Some of the targets included are at the same time drivers of productivity and GDP growth, such as public health outcomes and educational attainment; while certain environmental targets may present trade-offs with i

25、ncreasing GDP or carry distributional consequences depending on how they are pursued. 2. Update the measure of GDP and a re-evaluate growth as a core policy target: The definition of GDP will need to be updated to accurately capture the value of activity that does not have a market price, for exampl

26、e digital activity and care work, and to exclude extractive activity both environmental and financial. GDP growth as the core policy target will also need to be re-evaluated. Beyond the immediate context of the ongoing crisis, the role of economic growth in advancing living standards in recent years

27、 has been different 7 Dashboard for a New Economy depending on the setting. In high-income economies, long-term productivity growth has been steadily declining since the 1970s, and it has been argued that there are currently no clear policy avenues for reviving it.4 What little growth there was has

28、disproportionately accrued to individuals in the top 1% of the income distribution. It has been proposed therefore that a more beneficial path may be to target welfare-enhancing interventions more directly.5 In low- and middle-income countries, benefits of economic growth have been more evenly sprea

29、d and lifted millions out of poverty in large emerging markets. The avenues for policy support to boost growth performance were better known until the manufacturing-led development model lost much of its force with the advent of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. While the case for boosting economic

30、growth remains strong, the direction of future growth also needs to be actively shaped. 3. Monitor distributional outcomes and access to opportunity: The crisis has had a deeply uneven impact, exacerbating existing dynamics of economic and social polarization and deepening historical patterns of dis

31、advantage. This is true for both the health and economic impact of the pandemic, which has been worse for women and low- and middle-income households.6 The COVID-19 crisis follows more than a decade of wage and wealth stagnation and a persistent downward trend in the labour share of income. While th

32、e unemployment impact in Europe was initially cushioned 4 Banerjee and Duflo, 2019 5 Ibid. 6 IMF, 2020, Brussevic et al., 2020 7 Coyle et al., 2017 by rapid policy intervention, this situation will change once wage support programmes are phased out in the coming months. Globally, acceleration of the

33、 digitalization of business processes will likely entail a labour market recovery that does not make up for middle-skilled jobs lost during the pandemic. Furthermore, a prolonged decoupling of the stock market from labour market dynamics will lead to widening wealth inequality, and a climate transit

34、ion carries the risk of regressive outcomes if it is not carefully managed. While it will be important to track developments in both income and wealth distributions, it is not clear that the level of inequality per se should be a target that is included in a Dashboard in particular since different p

35、hases of economic development are associated with different levels of inequality. It has been argued that a measure of social mobility or equality of opportunity would be a more robust concept to monitor. 4. Include future-orientation and resilience: Beyond simply considering a broader set of factor

36、s, macro-level performance indicators will need to be designed to be more forward-looking, including measures of financial, natural and social capital as an indicator of systems resilience to future shocks and also gradual depletion. The remit of national statistics, which had originally been design

37、ed to track resources available to government, was extended in the 1930s to capture the economic welfare of citizens;7 yet, crystallized into the form of GDP, economic 8 Dashboard for a New Economy welfare became equivalent to present production and consumption without consideration for the future.

38、Reversing the environmental and social state of depletion in which we find ourselves will thus require a shift to include metrics that focus leaders minds on the future. 5. Reflect connection and community: A set of guiding principles for economic policy-making in the post-pandemic world will also n

39、eed to recognize the need for a fundamental transformation of social systems and the enablers that should be at its core.8 The dynamics of the Fourth Industrial Revolution have made 20th-century systems obsolete and it has been suggested that a social system fit for and building on the strengths of

40、the Fourth Industrial Revolution will be designed to have 8 Cottam, 2020 9 Ibid. human connection at its core to support those in need.9 When it comes to multidimensional frameworks, a large number of concepts have been put forward to capture the social dimension and will require further convergence

41、. They range from social capital, to social cohesion, social connections, diversity, equity and inclusion, agency and empowerment to social justice. Table 1 presents a high-level framework that reflects these five principles, the Dashboard for a New Economy. The Appendix provides examples of specifi

42、c outcomes that are relevant for each of the four dimensions prosperity, planet, people and institutions which will, however, require further discussion and convergence. Table 1: Dashboard for a new economy Dimensions ProsperityPlanetPeopleInstitutions GDP (updated)Energy mix and intensity, GHG emis

43、sions Human capital: education and skills Institutional context Income and wealth inequality, social mobility Distributional issues: impact and mitigation Human capital: public health Financial resilienceNatural resilienceSocial resilience 9 Dashboard for a New Economy Assessing the current state of

44、 economic recovery A multidimensional view of the recovery will be critical to shaping the kind of transformation that is being called for by the present moment. Building on the analytical framework outlined above, this report presents an assessment of the ongoing economic recovery that is broader t

45、han in previous editions of the Forums Chief Economists Outlook, where this analysis is usually presented. The assessment follows the Dashboard structure laid out in the first part of the report (see Table 1) to the extent possible. It is organized around the four pillars of prosperity, planet, peop

46、le and institutions. Given that data on many relevant dimensions is not yet collected at high frequency and in a systematic way, the assessment also draws on anecdotal evidence. In the longer run, our aim is to identify the most appropriate data sources for consistent assessment of each dimension ov

47、er time. Prosperity GDP recovery While still far below its pre-COVID-19 trend, the global GDP recovery in its current definition is following the OECDs June upside scenario more closely than the downside one.10 Yet, this overall trend is masking much heterogeneity across 10 OECD, 2020 11 Allianz, 20

48、20 12 Citi, 2020 13 ILO, 2020; Rizk, 2020 countries and sectors and the recovery is losing momentum as uncertainty over a second wave of COVID-19 is high and firms continue to lay off workers. GDP recovery paths of the largest economies are diverging as China and Germany pull ahead of the United Sta

49、tes, France, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom.11 The economic recovery also varies significantly by sector, with services in particular, travel, hospitality and entertainment edging back only slowly as consumers remain cautious and new local restrictions are put in place.12 Uncertainty on the timing of a full GDP recovery to 2019 levels is high. The Forums latest Chief Economists Survey yielded a range of estimates between the second half of 2021 to the second half of 2022, for high- and middle-income countries. The average expectation for