【公司研究】東方日升-組件渠道優勢顯著異質結領先布局-20200309[29頁].pdf

1、 / 2019 5.2GW148%2019 20196 9.1GW2GW3GW210 2020202014GW 2.5GW20198 2020 2 EVA 2019EPC403MW 720MW EVAEVA 2020-2021EPS1.23 1.47 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 11,452 9,752 14,412 21,110 24,662 (+/-)% 63.21% -14.84% 47.78% 46.48% 16.83% 650 232 980 1,107 1,325 (+/-)% -5.67% -64.24% 321.85% 12.94% 19.65%

2、 0.72 0.26 1.09 1.23 1.47 16.83 22.07 13.45 11.91 9.96 1.46 0.69 1.56 1.38 1.21 (%) 8.69% 3.13% 11.59% 11.57% 12.16% (%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% () 905 904 901 901 901 2020/3/6 6 24.00 14.63 12 9.1518.09 14,323 901 A 901 B/H 0/0 26 -7% 10% 27% 44% 61% 2019/32019/62019/92019/12 % 1M 3M 12M 8% 3

3、2% 57% 2% 26% 49% 300118 -20200215 10-20200215 -20200202 S0550516050002 (021)20361230 S0550517100002 (021)20361163 300118 / 2020-03-09 2 / 29 1. . 3 1.1. .3 1.2. 2019.3 2. . 5 2.1. .5 2.2. .8 2.3. .9 3. . 10 3.1. .10 3.2. .12 4. . 14 4.1. HIT .14 4.2. HIT .15 4.3. HIT .18 5. EVA . 24 6. . 25 7. . 26

4、 3 / 29 1. 1.1. 2002 2006 EVA 201929.19% 1.2. 2019 2019144.12 48%20199.80322% 20192.3 7.5170%2019 1 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 160.00 201420152016201720182019 Wind 4 / 29 2 -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400% 450% 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.

5、00 8.00 10.00 12.00 201420152016201720182019 Wind 60%2019 48.0279% EPC 2019EPC2.593.32 EVA2019 4.6415.59% 1-2 3 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 20152016201720182019-1H EVA Wind 5 / 29 4 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 20152016201720182019-1H EVA Wind 2. 2.1. 20

6、18108GW9% 2019120GW 2019 5 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E2020E2021E GW BNEF 6 / 29 62018GW 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 20172018 SolarPower Europe 28201916.7GW104% 202020%2030 35%2020 7 SolarPower Europe 7 / 29 82018 0 0.5 1 1.5

7、2 2.5 3 3.5 4 /kwh) SolarPower Europe 20171GW920181GW 112019GW16 201990GW 201915% 9GW SolarPower Europe 8 / 29 2.2. 201841GW30%130 24% 201966.6GW62%173.1 33%201820191GW 152018470.4% 2019 7.5%2017 30%201815% 102018 15% 14% 10% 9% 4%4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 29% CPIA 112019 13% 10% 8% 9% 7% 6% 5%5% 5% 4% 30% CPI

8、A 9 / 29 12 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 MW Wind 2.3. 1232020 120194 20202019 2019 717102020 430201922019 20202 2019 20193022.57.5 0.18/kwh3.5-4GW2019 22.79GW170.07/kwh 202015105 2020190.05-0.06/kwh 2019615% 20200.05/kwh 0.350.40.49/kwh0.08/kwh0.

9、04-0.05 /kwh1018-23GW 0.08/kwh5 6-7GW24-30GW2019 10 / 29 20203 202020195 14.78GW2019 2020 IIIII 1.7W1300 0.35/kwhIRR8% 2020 20192020 2019 2020 2019.1.18/1.22 2019.2.18 2019.4.12 2020.1.23 2019.4.30 2019.5.30 2019.7.1 2020.4.30 2019.7.10 30 15 7.5 5 0.18/kwh 0.1/kwh 3.5GW 5GW 22.79GW 18-23GW 17 10 0.

10、07/kwh 0.04-0.05/kwh 10.01 /kwh 20203 2020 3. 3.1. 2008 12 1 TUV TUV RINA CE UL MCS CEC 201092% 2012-2013 11 / 29 2019 67% 13 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 Wind 50 14MW 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2016201720182019 (MW) Wind 2016-201

11、8 20192019 12 / 29 5.2GW150% 3.2. 2018 5GW5GW2019 9.1GW 2GW2018 2GW201962GW 20193GW2102020 15MW 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20152016201720182019E2020E2021E MWMW Wind 20183.35GW2019 2.78GW7GW100% 1-22019 6% 13 / 29 16MW 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2015201620172018

12、2019-1H MW Wind 2 2016 2017 2018 9.10% 9.60% 10.80% 6.60% 7.10% 7.50% 8.90% 9.00% 6.70% 6.30% 5.30% 6.60% 7.20% 6.70% 6.20% 2.90% 4.40% 6.20% 5.40% 4.70% 4.30% 1.80% 2.80% 3.20% Vina Solar 3.40% 2.80% 2.30% 3.00% 2.90% 1.60% CPIA 2017201914.76% 2018 60% PERC 2020210 14 / 29 17 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

13、 14% 16% 18% 20% 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 20152016201720182019-1H Wind 4. 201982.5GW 2020 25MW 4.1. HIT HITHeterojunction with Intrinsic Thin-layer HIT HJT HeterojunctionHDT Heterojunction Double-side Technology SHJSilicon Hetero-JunctionHIT 1974Walter Fuhs HIT HIT1989HIT

14、 15%1997HIT HIT2010HIT HIT HIT 26.63%2017HITHIT 100MW HIT 15 / 29 18HIT Taiyang News p-n HITp-na-Si:H c-Si TCOHIT 19HIT 20HIT 4.2. HIT HIT 16 / 29 26.63%23.70% PERC PERC8-10HIT TCO HITGW8-10 HIT HIT TCO HIT2-3TCO 21HIT 22PERC 23HIT + SE + + TCO + 1 HITHIT PERCPERC6m HIT8m-10mHIT 17 / 29 p-n HIT 200

15、900 HIT 8m-10m RCA 2 HIT HIT 5-10nm10nmP-PERC 200nmHIT HIT PECVD HWCVD PECVD 3TCO HITTCO TCO HITTCOITOIWO TCO TCO PVDRPDPVDRPD0.5% 4 HIT200 PHIT TCO 200P 800 18 / 29 4.3. HIT PERCHIT 1 HIT HIT 20178keneka26.6%HIT 20191125.11%PERC 2-32019 124.06% PERC22.5% 2017-2019PERC0.5%/ Topcon 0.2-0.3%HIT 2017-2

16、019 1%2019HIT 23.5%2-30.5% PERC HIT HIT 740-750mvPERC50mv 24HIT 23.50% 24.00% 24.50% 25.00% 25.50% 26.00% 26.50% 27.00% Keneka(BC)Keneka(BC)Panasonic(BC)Panasonic 2017.82016.92014.42013.2 Taiyangnews 19 / 29 2 HITLIDPIDLID /PLIDHITN LIDPID ITOPID 3 -0.4/PERC-0.37/ HIT-0.25/HIT 60HITPERC 6% 25 Wind 4

17、 PERC 85%80%-85%HIT 95%20% HIT2%-3% 5 HIT PERC170m-180m160 m HIT160m 6 2014KenekaHIT HITIBCHBC+HIT 2018+HIT 20 / 29 28%2019+HIT27.15% 15% HITHIT 26+ 27HIT 0.50% 0.30%0.30%0.30% 3.00% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 3HITPERC HIT PERC 25%23.5%0.5% 24%22.5%0.3% LIDPID1% LID2%-2.5%1.5%-2

18、% -0.25/ -0.37/ 90%-95% 80%-85% 200 800 HBC SENTopcon 21 / 29 GW7-8 PECVD PECVDPVD2400/ 1GW101GWPECVD 5PVD1.5 PECVD PECVD5500-6000/GW 104-5PECVD PVD/RPDRPD 3000/5500/ PECVDPVD 6-7/GW3-3.5/GW HIT 5BB300-400mg/ PERC39BB 200mg/MBBSWCT 100mg/ 90% 80%6000-7000/5000/ 1000/ 30% 28 29 Taiyang News Taiyang N

19、ews 22 / 29 PERC170m-180m160m HIT 160mHIT HIT 200m 100m98m 24.7% HIT10m 3180m67 HIT160m 7310% 140m140m 180m20% PERC2021W 0.15/W PERC0.3/W2021 2022 30HITPERC 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 2019202020212022 PERCHIT HIT-PERC 4HITPERC 100MW PERC HIT 1.5 1.8 /W BOS

20、 2.0 1.94 /W 350 374 PERC HIT 23 / 29 1200 1200 30 30 80% 95% 20% 20% 16.00% 19.00% 1.50% 1% 0.70% 0.50% 35 -3.50% -2.50% 8% 8% 0.292 0.291 /kwh GW PERC 5HIT 1GW 600MW REC600MW 500MW Hevel 260MW 3SUN250MW 100MW EcoSolifer100MW 120MW NSP50MW Sunpreme400MW 3.98GW Taiyang News 2019 5.25.3% 6 2015 2016

21、2017 2018 2019-3Q 438 527 759 1136 13.00% 15.46% 17.61% 17.34% 167.94 211.99 357.84 331.17 518.90 3.19% 3.02% 3.12% 3.40% 5.31% Wind 24 / 29 31 5. EVA EPC EPC 2019EPC403MW720MW 65%EPC EPC 72019 MW MW MW EPC 169 234 403 632 720 1352 Wind 2014EVA EVA EVAPO NPIDEVA 25 / 29 PO 32EVA 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 1

22、5.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 201620172018 Wind 6. EPC1-1.5GW EPCEVA2020-2021EPS1.23 1.47 8 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 7101 12035 17504 20788 1016 1896 2444 3104 14.3% 15.8% 14.0% 14.9% 957.41 600 1200 1200 151 90 180 180 15.78% 15% 15% 15% 903.93 900 1000 1100 168 14

23、4 180 198 18.60% 16% 18% 18% 473.68 700 750 800 26 / 29 307 455 487.5 520 65% 65% 65% 65% Wind 7. 27 / 29 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2,114 1,999 1,999 1,999 228 980 1,107 1,325 0 0 0 0 269 9 19 12 4,222 4,738 6,362 6,757 343 537 642 712 1,187 1,610 2,174 2,539 47 0 0 0 1,635 1,8

24、60 2,370 2,647 195 140 166 137 9,158 10,208 12,904 13,941 22 0 0 0 241 241 241 241 -932 -548 -175 135 25 25 25 25 -40 -369 -130 0 6,179 7,141 7,999 8,286 132 750 1,629 2,321 506 506 506 506 -3,006 -2,231 -870 -800 309 309 309 309 718 1,366 -759 -1,521 9,623 11,686 12,044 12,131 -1,175 -417 1,031 1,1

25、67 18,782 21,894 24,948 26,072 2,450 3,409 2,015 132 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 4,585 4,830 6,522 7,334 486 731 1,065 1,247 0.26 1.09 1.23 1.47 737 737 737 737 8.24 9.38 10.61 12.08 9,014 10,598 11,746 11,046 0.15 0.83 1.81 2.57 297 797 1,597 2,097 1,068 1,068 1,068 1,068 -14.84% 47.78% 46.48% 16.83% 1

26、,365 1,865 2,665 3,165 -64.24% 321.85% 12.94% 19.65% 10,379 12,463 14,411 14,211 7,431 8,458 9,565 10,890 18.11% 18.46% 16.47% 16.51% 972 972 972 972 2.38% 6.80% 5.24% 5.37% 18,782 21,894 24,948 26,072 140.53 120.00 110.00 100.00 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 53.71 50.00 45.00 45.00 9,752 14,412 21,110 24

27、,662 7,986 11,752 17,633 20,591 55.26% 56.93% 57.76% 54.50% 52 58 84 99 1.02 0.96 1.10 1.26 269 9 19 12 0.85 0.76 0.85 0.95 456 548 760 888 395 504 697 789 4.67% 3.80% 3.60% 3.60% 67 78 106 77 4.05% 3.50% 3.30% 3.20% -47 0 0 0 0.68% 0.54% 0.50% 0.31% -22 0 0 0 275 771 1,157 1,540 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0

28、.00% -12 369 130 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 263 1,140 1,287 1,540 35 160 180 216 P/E 22.07 13.45 11.91 9.96 228 980 1,107 1,325 P/B 0.69 1.56 1.38 1.21 232 980 1,107 1,325 P/S 1.47 0.99 0.68 0.58 -4 0 0 0 3.13% 11.59% 11.57% 12.16% 28 / 29 “” R3AB AAABS “” 615% 65%15% 6-5%5% 65%15% 615% 6 6 6 29 / 29

29、 400-600-0686 6666 130119 28D 100033 729 200127 100622A 518038 12215 510630 021-20361121 13564972909 021-20361229 17717370432 021-20361258 18221628116 021-20361267 13262728598 chen_ 021-20361258 13120758587 L 021-20361121 18516562656 021-20361112 18801903156 021-20361133 18516728369 021-20361133 131

30、22617959 010-58034553 18515018255 010-58034557 18501954588 010-58034555 13701194494 010-58034563 18501944669 010-58034561 18600646766 010-63210813 18153683452 0755-33975865 18938029743 liu_ 0755-33975865 15989508876 0755-33975865 18682251183 0755-33975865 18516772531 0755-33975865 18620093160 0755-33975865 18664323108 C