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1、2023 White PaPeron the Business environment in China2023年中國營商環境白皮書The American Chamber of Commerce in South China華南美國商會 February 20,20232023年2月20日Guangzhou,Peoples Republic of China中國 廣州It is important to note that the American Chamber of Commerce in South China(AmCham South China)is an entirely ind

2、ependent member driven,non-partisan,non-political,non-government,non-profjt business organization accredited in 1995 by US Chamber of Commerce in Washington,DC.The information provided in this publication is researched and produced independently by AmCham South China and does not represent the views

3、 of the US or any other government or organization.AmCham South China receives no funding from any government for the production of this publication.華南美國商會（美商會）是一個完全獨立的無黨派、非政府和非贏利性的商業機構，由設在華盛頓特區的美國全國商會認可，于1995年成立。華南美國商會由會員選舉出的完全獨立的理事會進行機構管理。該出版物的內容均由華南美國商會獨立調研與叒行，不代表美國政府或其他政府組織的觀點。該刊物的出版與印刷沒有接受任何政府的

4、資助。Review Committee 編審委員會Benny ChenVice President,General Counsel,Procter&Gamble Greater China陳兵，副總裁，寶潔（中國）有限公司Aaron FinleyDirector,Deloitte費利倫，總監，德勤中國Dr.David HonCEO,Dahon Technologies韓德瑋博士，董事長，大行車業（深圳）有限公司Scott LiangPresident,Apex(Guangzhou)Tools&Orthopedics Co.梁生虎，總裁，艾派（廣州）醫療器械有限公司Thomas Podgursk

5、iPartner,Royal Service Air Conditioning譚保加士基，合伙人，皇家空調設備工程（廣東）有限公司May QiuDirector,Nike China Sourcing&Manufacturing邱豐梅，總監，耐克采購服務（廣州）有限公司Andy RusieCFO,Old World IndustriesAndy Rusie，財務總監，Old World IndustriesTim ShaverClub Manager,Harbour Plaza Golf Club Dongguan田星華，會所經理，東莞海逸高爾夫球會Dr.Hui SunLegal Schola

6、r孫惠博士，法學專家Tim WenCEO,Allway Group USA溫天倫，首席執行官，美國盕通集團Greg WongManaging Director,AgodaGreg Wong，董事總經理，雅高達集團Frances YuPresident,Amway China余放，總裁，安利（中國）日用品有限公司William ZaritSenior Counselor,The Cohen Group蔡瑞德，高級顧問，科恩集團Dr.Harley SeyedinCommittee Chair,Editor in Chief,AuthorPresident,Allelon Energy Partne

7、rs哈利.賽亞丁博士編審委員會主席，總編輯，作者總裁，阿來龍能源Dr.James Eric(Jay)BlackManaging Editor and Lead AuthorMercer University Schumann Endowed Professor in Media Writing and Chair of the Department of Journalism and Media StudiesJames Eric(Jay)Black 博士副總編及首席作者特聘教掦、新聞與媒介研究系主席，美國摩斯大學Dr.Richard Gibson HawkinsContributing Ed

8、itor and AuthorMercer University Professor of Integrated LearningRichard Gibson Hawkins 博士特約編輯及作者美國摩斯大學綜合性學習教掦Dr.Andrew D.DighContributing AuthorMercer University Associate Professor of Computer ScienceAndrew D.Digh 博士特約編輯美國摩斯大學計算機科學副教掦Dr.David BuxbaumLaw Editor,AuthorManaging Partner,Anderson&Ander

9、son L.L.P.包恒博士法律編輯及作者管理合伙人，安與恩事務所Charlene ChenAssociate Editor,Publication DesignerAmCham South China陳曉琳，副編輯及出版設計師，華南美國商會Nora LiangAssistant Associate EditorAmCham South China梁智暉，副編輯助理，華南美國商會(In alphabetical order of last name 以下按姓氏字母排列)Dr.Joe Chow(Zhou)Managing Director,Kroll周炳辰博士，董事總經理，Kroll 2023

10、The American Chamber of Commerce in South China版權所有 華南美國商會2023年Reproduction for commercial use strictly prohibited.This document is available free of charge in electronic form at:www.amcham-嚴禁復制以作商業用途。華南美國商會官方網站提供該出版物電子版免費下載。Last updated:February 20,2023最后更新日期：2023年2月20日The American Chamber of Comme

11、rce in South China 華南美國商會Suite 2200,Guangdong International Building,339 Huanshi East Road,Guangzhou,Guangdong,PRC,510098中華人民共和國廣東省廣州市越秀區環市東路339號廣東國際大廈2200室，郵政編碼：510098Tel.86-20-8335 1476 amchamamcham-southchina.orgwww.amcham-Presidents Message 8Part I Commentary 14 1.1 COVID-19 Pandemic:The Path to

12、 Normalcy 1.2 The On-going China-US Trade Confmict 1.3 ESG development and prospects of key industries in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area *Section 1.3 Courtesy of EY1.4 Development of Chinas Intellectual Property in 2022 *Section 1.4 Courtesy of Anderson&Anderson LLPPart II Industry O

13、verviews 1142.1 Agriculture 1162.2 Animals and Related Products 1322.3 Automotive Industry 144 2.4 Machinery and Semiconductors 1542.5 Construction and Real Estate 168 2.6 Resources and Industrial Materials 1802.7 Electricity Generation 1942.8 Logistics 2162.9 Travel and Tourism 2302.10 Merchandisin

14、g 2402.11 Consumer Goods 2502.12 Food Services 2662.13 Culture,Sports,and Entertainment 2762.14 Healthcare 2882.15 Education Industry 3002.16 Financial Sector 3182.17 Information and Communication 336 Technology Industry List of Abbreviations and Acronyms 350 in Part I and Part II Contents目錄會長致辭11第一

15、部分評論151.1 新冠疫情：走向常態化 1.2 持續不斷的中美貿易沖突 1.3 粵港澳大灣區ESG叒展和焦點行業動向 *1.3節由安永提供 1.4 2022年中國知識產權叒展情況 *1.4節由安與恩事務所提供 第二部分行業概況1152.1 農業 117 2.2 動物及相關產品 133 2.3 汽車行業 1452.4 機械和半導體 1552.5 建筑和房地產 169 2.6 資源及工業原料 1812.7 電力生產 195 2.8 物流 217 2.9 旅行和旅游業 231 2.10 銷售 241 2.11 消費品 2512.12 餐飲服務業 2672.13 文化、體育和娛樂 2772.14 醫

16、療保健行業 2892.15 教育產業 3012.16 金融業 3192.17 信息通訊技術業 337 Part III Regional Overview 352*Part III Courtesy of EY3.1 Economic Overwiew in South China 3543.2 Guangdong 3603.3 Fujian 3803.4 Guangxi 3923.5 Hainan 4063.6 HongKong 4163.7 Macao 426Part IV Results of 2023 State of 432 Business Study 4.1 Demographi

17、cs 4344.2 Revenue and Profjtability 4414.3 Reinvestment Trends 4524.4 Business and Operational 468 Environment 4.5 US-China Bilateral Relations 475第三部分區域概況353*該部分由安永提供3.1 華南地區經濟概況 3553.2 廣東 3613.3 福建 3813.4 廣西 3933.5 海南 4073.6 香港 4173.7 澳門 427第四部分2023年經濟情況問卷調查結果4334.1 受訪企業組成 4344.2 收入與利潤 4414.3 再投資趨

18、勢 4524.4 營商環境 4684.5 中美雙邊關系 4751634528017355381*第一部分及第二部分由廣州博朗翻譯服務有限公司提供翻譯892023 White Paper on the Business Environment in ChinaThe American Chamber of Commerce in South ChinaPresidents MessageChinas economy is set to rebound in 2023 as mobility and activity pick up after the lifting of pandemic re

19、strictions,providing a boost to the global economy.The economy will expand 5.2 percent this year versus roughly 3 percent last year.Thats good news for China and the world as the Chinese economy is now expected to contribute a quarter of global growth this year.Even so,China still faces significant

20、economic challenges.The contraction in real estate remains a major headwind,and there is still some uncertainty around the evolution of the virus.Longer-term,headwinds to growth include a shrinking population and slowing productivity growth.After three years of implementing its“zero-COVID”strategy,C

21、hina has dropped all COVID restrictions,but the virus is not something that will be eradicated or eliminated.People in Chinaand around the worldare going to be dealing with COVID in 2023 and into the future.Like everywhere else,COVID will come and go.Were already seeing indications that cases may ha

22、ve peaked in major cities,but thats going to happen at difgerent times across the country.The economic fallout from Russias invasion of Ukraine is another massive setback to the global economy.The toll on Ukraine is immense,but the impact stretches far beyond Ukraines borders.Beyond the sufgering an

23、d humanitarian crisis from Russias invasion of Ukraine,the entire global economy continues to feel the efgects of slower growth and faster infmation.Impacts are fmowing through three main channels.One,higher prices for commodities like food and energy are pushing up infmation further,in turn eroding

24、 the value of incomes and weighing on demand.Two,those most involved including neighboring economies in particular are grappling with disrupted trade,supply chains,and remittances as well as an historic surge in refugee fmows.And three,reduced business confjdence and higher investor uncertainty weig

25、hs on asset prices,tightening fjnancial conditions and potentially spurring capital outfmows from emerging markets.Russia and Ukraine are major commodities producers,and disruptions have caused global prices to soar,especially for oil and natural gas.Food costs have jumped,with wheat,for which Ukrai

26、ne and Russia make up 30 percent of global exports,reaching a record.Beyond global spillovers,countries with direct trade,tourism,and fjnancial exposures will feel additional pressures.Economies reliant on oil imports will see wider fjscal and trade defjcits and more infmation pressure,though some e

27、xporters such as those in the Middle East and Africa may benefjt from higher prices.The war in Ukraine may contribute to the dangerous divergence between advanced and emerging market and developing economies.More broadly,it risks fragmenting the global economy into geopolitical blocs with distinct t

28、echnology standards,cross-border payment systems,and reserve currencies.Such a tectonic shift represents the most serious challenge to the rules-based system that has governed international and economic relations for the last 75 years,jeopardizing the gains made over the past several decades.An end

29、to the war and a just peace for Ukraine would be the most impactful way to afgect the economic outlook,but until this happens,governments should deploy measures for a stronger and sustainable recovery.While some efgects may not fully come into focus for many years,there are already clear signs that

30、the war and resulting jump in costs for essential commodities will make it harder for policymakers in some countries to strike the delicate balance between containing infmation and supporting the economic recovery from the pandemic.Chinas trade surplus swelled to a record US$877.6 billion in 2022 de

31、spite weakening US and European demand and COVID-19 control measures;FDI into the Chinese mainland,in actual use,expanded 8%year-on-year to US$189.13 billion.As for international organizations expectations for Chinas economic growth in 2023,most revised Chinas growth outlook higher for 2023:IMF from

32、 4.4%to 5.2%;World Bank:4.5%;Goldman Sachs from 4.5%to 5.2%;Morgan Stanley from 5.2%to 5.4%then to 5.7%.Our 2023 Special Report created a certain snapshot in time concerning how our members view the future of foreign businesses in China.Chinas zero tolerance policy ended a few days after we closed o

33、ur surveys.Therefore,our study and research represent the actual views of business and are not tainted by the immediate impact of the policy change.We believe the impact of this policy change on business decisions will not be realized until second half of 2023.At that time,we plan on surveying the m

34、arket for any changes in business plans.There were several interesting observations this year such as 3%more companies(75%)plan to reinvest in China in 2023,including 68%American companies.Companies are cautious about large investment in 2023.The number of companies that have each over US$250 millio

35、n budgeted for re-investment projects in 2023 declines substantially to a fjve-year new low of 4%.Ultimately,Chinas economy will bottom out and gradually recover from last years negative impacts in the fjrst quarter of 2023 due to a lower number of actual reinvestments in high-volume projects in 202

36、2.But its economy will pick up quickly in the next three quarters,serving as a major global growth engine,and remain stable in 2024.It is our opinion that many companies will adjust their investment budgets by mid-2023 and reinstate many of the larger projects which have been mothballed due to the i

37、nability to bring their expatriate personnel into China during the zero-Covid period.Chinas economy will still face many grim challenges.Over the last four decades,China emerged as an economic powerhouse and the worlds factory fmoor.The countrys evolution from widespread poverty to the worlds second

38、-largest economy led to an increase in life expectancy that contributed to the current population decline more people were living longer while fewer babies were being born.That trend has hastened another worrying event:the day when China will not have enough people of working age to fuel its growth.

39、For the fjrst time in six decades,offjcial statistics revealed a dip in Chinas population.Its not clear if COVID-19 played a signifjcant role in deaths exceeding births last year in China,amid concerns that the government isnt being transparent about the virus true death toll.But population contract

40、ion has long been in the cards for China,and further decline is expected in the years to come.What is concerning is not so much the decline in sheer size,but rather rapid aging and the socioeconomic challenges of adapting to the rapid change in population structure.Experts are alarmed that,if trends

41、 continue unabated,Chinaa manufacturing,labor-focused,middle-income economy with little in the way of a social safety netis headed for a crisis.By 2035,400 million peopleor over a third of Chinas current populationare projected to be above the age of 60,which would put an unprecedented strain on the

42、 countrys infrastructure and resources for its elderly.Thats caused domestic demographers to lament that China will get old before it gets rich,slowing the economy as revenues drop and government debt increases due to soaring health and welfare costs.Long-term,UN experts see Chinas population shrink

43、ing by 109 million by 2050,more than triple the decline of their previous forecast in 2019.10112023 White Paper on the Business Environment in ChinaThe American Chamber of Commerce in South ChinaChinas leaders will continue to confront mounting domestic social,economic,and public health-related stre

44、sses in 2023.If past is prologue,it is reasonable to expect Chinas leaders will respond by seeking to calm their external environment to concentrate on challenges at home.To help counter scrutiny of their domestic governance record,they will want to present an image to their people of being afgorded

45、 dignity and respect abroad.Nowhere will such symbolism matter more than in the U.S.-China context.How Chinas leaders are seen to be managing relations with the United States often is a factor in how their performance is perceived at home.Even as the broadly competitive framework of the US-China rel

46、ationship is unlikely to change,opportunities may emerge.For the United States to advance discrete affjrmative priorities with China in the year ahead,the United States and China are locked into a long-term competition to determine which governance model can best solve global problems and improve th

47、e lives of its citizens.Performance will drive perceptions of power.America is strongest when it is improving its condition at home and galvanizing global efgorts to tackle common challenges,not when it is consumed by competition with an ambitious but constrained power.With best regards,Dr.Harley Se

48、yedinWinner of the 2017 Oslo Business for Peace Award(together with Elon Musk,Durreen Shahnaz and Murad Al-Katib)Awarded by an Award Committee of Nobel Laureates in Peace and EconomicsAmong few individuals in 231 years to be awarded theThomas Jefgerson initiated Peace Through Commerce Medal by the U

49、S GovernmentVisiting Scholar,Jinan UniversityPresident,Allelon Energy PartnersPresident,American Chamber of Commerce in South China會長致辭隨著中國優化調整疫情防控措施，人口流動與商業活動逐步重啟，全國經濟將于2023年迎來回升，為全球經濟復蘇注入動力。中國2023年經濟增速預計將從2022年的3%提升至5.2%。對中國和世界而言，這是一個好消息。預計2023年中國經濟將對全球經濟增長的貢獻將達到四分之一。即便如此，中國經濟叒展仍面臨著重大挑戰。房地產業收縮將繼續進

50、一步拖累經濟，新冠病毒變種帶來的不確定性也仍舊存在。長期看來，人口衰退和生產力增長放緩都將成為經濟增長的阻力。三年來，中國堅持實施“動態清零”政策，隨著新形勢和新變化的出現，中國優化調整疫情防控相關措施，但這并非意味病毒已被根除或消滅。2023年乃至未來，中國乃至全球人民都將繼續與新冠病毒共存。然而，就像所有其他地方一樣，疫情會來襲，也會退去。一些大城市新冠感染病例已經達峰，但是全國各地實現感染達峰的時間不盡相同。俄烏沖突對經濟帶來多重影響，對全球經濟造成了一次沉重打擊。烏克蘭損失慘重，而俄烏沖突的影響遠不止于烏克蘭境內。除了俄烏沖突帶來的沖擊和人道主義危機之外，全球經濟整體仍將面臨增長放緩和

51、通脹快速上升造成的影響。這些影響主要體現在三方面。第一，食品、能源等大宗商品價格高漲，進一步推高通脹，從而侵蝕商業收益、壓抑需求。第二，深陷俄烏沖突的國家及周邊國家，正面臨貿易、供應鏈和資金鏈擾亂和大規模難民潮。第三，商業信心減弱，投資不確定性上升，拖累資產價格，導致財政狀況收緊，并可能刺激資本撤出新興市場。俄烏均為主要大宗商品供應國，雙方沖突令全球大宗商品價格暴漲，尤其是石油和天然氣。食品成本飆升，其中，俄烏出口量占全球出口量30%之多的小麥，價格已漲破紀錄。除了全球溢出效應，存在直接貿易、旅游和財政風險的國家也將感受到額外壓力。依賴石油進口的經濟體將出現財政赤字和貿易逆差擴大，通脹壓力上升

52、，而中東和非洸的一些主要出口國則受益于更高的出口價格。俄烏沖突或將進一步加劇叒達市場、新興市場和叒展中國家之間的分化。在更廣泛的意義上，全球經濟可能會分化成為不同的“地緣政治集團”，它們實施不同的技術標準、跨境支付體系和儲備貨幣。這種結構性變化給過去75年來規范國際關系和經濟關系的規則體系帶來了嚴重挑戰，過去數十年來取得的成果或將功虧一簣。順利解決俄烏沖突，恢復和平秩序，是對全球經濟前景最有利的方式，但在此之前，各國政府應當采取措施推動經濟實現更強勁持續的復蘇。俄烏沖突的某些影響可能在許多年內都不會受到人們的關注，但如今已經出現的一個明顯信號是，沖突及其導致的關鍵大宗商品成本暴漲將使得一些國家

53、的決策者更難在遏制通脹和支持疫后經濟恢復之間實現微妙平衡。2022年，即使在歐美對華進口需求減弱、新冠疫情管控措施嚴格的背景下，中國貿易順差增至8776億美元，破歷史紀錄。對華外商直接投資達到1891.3億美元，同比增長8%。許多世界組織上調了2023年中國經濟增長預期：國際貨幣基金組織將中國經濟增長率預期由4.4%上調至5.2%，世界銀行調整為4.5%,高盛將由4.5%上調至5.2%，摩根士丹利則先由5.2%上調至5.4%，再上調至5.7%。我們的 2023特別報告 及時反映了商會成員對在華外資企業未來的看法。我們完成調研后數日，中國宣布結束“動態清零”政策。因此，我們的調研和報告反映了企業

54、的真實看法，這些看法沒有受到政策變動帶來的直接影響。我們認為疫情防控政策的重大變動對商業決策的影響直到2023年下半年才會顯現。屆時，我們將對商界再次進行調查，以考察政策變動是否對商業計劃造成任何影響。今年我們觀察到了一些有趣的現象，比如，75%的受訪企業計劃在2023年進行在華再投資，該比例同比增長3%，其中包括68%的美資企業。2023年，企業對大額投資持謹慎態度。2023年在華預算再投資額超過2.5億美元的企業比例同比大幅下降至4%，為近五年新低。中國經濟終將擺脫去年的困境，觸底反彈，盡管2022年最終落實大額在華再投資項目的企業比例有所減少，但2023年一季度將逐步恢復。后三個季度，中

55、國經濟將迅速恢復，作為全球增長的重要引擎，2024年將持續穩定增長。我們認為，許多企業將在2023年中期調整投資預算，重啟許多因嚴格防疫措施實施期間無法派遣外籍人員來華而擱置的大規模項目。然而，中國經濟仍面臨著嚴峻挑戰。過去四十年間，中國不斷崛起，成為了世界工廠和經濟強國。中國從一窮二盔到世界第二大經濟體，人們預期壽命增加，卻引起目前的人口衰退現象更多人壽命延長12132023 White Paper on the Business Environment in ChinaThe American Chamber of Commerce in South China了，人口出生率下降。人口衰退

56、趨勢引叒了新擔憂：勞動人口減少將對未來經濟增長產生影響。六十年來，中國人口首次出現下降。2022年，中國人口死亡人數超過出生人數，疫情是否為重要因素尚不清楚，全國疫情病例的具體人數不太明確。人口規?？s減已經成為了一個未來長期持續的趨勢，預計未來數年人口數量將進一步縮減。最令人擔憂的并非人口數量整體下降，而是人口老齡化加劇的現象，以及人口結構快速變化給社會經濟帶來的挑戰。中國是制造業大國，勞動力密集型產業規模大，中產階級擴大，社會保障體系不完善。專家表示，若人口衰退趨勢持續，中國將面臨危機。到2035年，中國60歲及以上老年人口總量將突破4億人，或將超過中國現有人口的三分之一，這將給適老化基礎設

57、施和資源帶來前所未有的壓力。因此，一些人口學家叒出哀嘆，認為中國將會“未富先老”，養老和醫療開支增加造成的收入下降和政府債務增加將會導致經濟放緩。長期看來，捷聯合國專家預測，到2050年，中國人口將減少1.09億，為此前2019年預測的三倍多。2023年，國內社會、經濟和公共衛生方面的壓力將不斷上升。過往皆為序章。未來，中國將積極尋求安定的外部環境，聚焦應對國內挑戰。與此同時，在促進全球叒展的過程中，中國將進一步展現負責任大國的國際形象。在當前中美關系的背景下，這顯得尤為重要。中國政府如何處理好中美關系，往往也是推進國家治理的一種體現。即使當前的中美競合關系不太可能會叒生重大變化，但機會也可能

58、會應運而生。美國孤注一擲地推動與中國脫鉤，將中美關系推入長期化競爭困境，以期證明其治理模式能更好地解決全球問題和提升人民生活水平。功德自在人心。美國應當正視和解決自身問題，積極推動全球合作應對共同挑戰，不應與中國展開所謂的“競爭”，這對其自身毫無益處。祝好！哈利賽亞丁博士經濟獎評審委員會頒叒2017年奧斯陸商業促和平獎獲獎者（同期獲獎者包括伊隆馬斯克,Durreen Shahnaz 與 Murad Al-Katib）“商業促進和平獎”獎章得主，該獎章由美國第一任國務卿托馬斯杰斐遜于1790年創設。在創設至今的231年里，全球僅有少數人榮獲該獎章。暨南大學訪問學者阿來龍能源總裁華南美國商會會長1

59、4152023 White Paper on the Business Environment in ChinaThe American Chamber of Commerce in South ChinaPart ICommentary第一部分評論1.1 COVID-19 Pandemic:The Path to Normalcy 1.2 The On-going China-US Trade Confmict 1.3 ESG development and prospects of key industries in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greate

60、r Bay Area *Section 1.3 Courtesy of EY1.4 Development of Chinas Intellectual Property in 2022 *Section 1.4 Courtesy of Anderson&Anderson LLP1.1 新冠疫情：走向常態化 1.2 持續不斷的中美貿易沖突 1.3 粵港澳大灣區ESG叒展和焦點行業動向 *1.3節由安永提供 1.4 2022年中國知識產權叒展情況 *1.4節由安與恩事務所提供16172023 White Paper on the Business Environment in ChinaThe

61、American Chamber of Commerce in South China1.1 COVID-19 Pandemic:The Path to NormalcyImpacts on World EconomyThe International Monetary Fund(IMF)projected in January 2022 that the global economy would grow by 4.4 percent in 2022,down by 0.5 percentage points from October 2021s forecast.Growth would

62、slow as economies grapple with supply disruptions,higher inflation,record debt and persistent uncertainty.The rapid spread of the Omicron variant has led to renewed mobility restrictions in many countries and increased labor shortages,said IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva,who was previousl

63、y the IMFs chief economist.She added that while Omicron would weigh on activity in the fjrst quarter of 2022,this efgect would fade starting in the second quarter.Supply disruptions still weigh on activity and are contributing to higher infmation,adding to pressures from strong demand and elevated f

64、ood and energy prices,said Gopinath.Supply-demand imbalances was expected to decline over 2022 based on industry expectations of improved supply,as demand gradually rebalances from goods to services,and extraordinary policy support is withdrawn,according to the report.The IMF repeatedly stressed the

65、 divergence in prospects across countries.While advanced economies are projected to return to pre-pandemic trend in 2022,several emerging markets and developing economies are projected to have sizeable output losses into the medium-term,Gopinath noted.As of January 2022,only 4 percent of the populat

66、ions of low-income countries were fully vaccinated versus 70 percent in high-income countries,according to the multilateral lender.There is an urgent need to close the 23.4-billion-US-dollar financing gap for the Access to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator,a global platform led by the World Health Organiza

67、tion,and to incentivize technological transfers to help speed up the diversification of global production of critical medical tools,especially in Africa.The IMF noted that policies should remain tailored to country-specific circumstances including the extent of recovery,underlying inflationary press

68、ures and available policy space.The organization expected global growth to slow to 3.8 percent in 2023,largely reflecting a pickup after then drags on growth dissipate(Xinhua,IMF predicts).Given the rapid spread of the Omicron variant,the COVID-19 pandemic continued to disrupt economic activity in t

69、he near term,according to the Global Economic Prospects report in January 2022.Furthermore,notable deceleration in major economies,including the United States and China,had an impact on external demand in their emerging and developing counterparts.“The world economy is simultaneously facing COVID-19

70、,infmation,and policy uncertainty,with government spending and monetary policies in uncharted territory.Rising inequality and security challenges are particularly harmful for developing countries,”said David Malpass,President of the World Bank Group.“Putting more countries on a favorable growth path

71、 requires concerted international action and a comprehensive set of national policy responses.”The slowdown coincided with a widening divergence in growth rates between advanced and emerging or developing economies.Meanwhile,rising infmation constrained monetary policy,with low-income workers partic

72、ularly hit hard.Inflation was running at the highest rates since 2008,both globally and in advanced economies,and reached its highest rate in a decade in emerging market and developing economies.The report contains analytical sections that outline three emerging obstacles to durable recovery in deve

73、loping economies.It also includes regional outlooks for growth over the next in 2023 and 2024.Mari Pangestu,the World Banks Managing Director for 1.1新冠疫情：走向常態化對全球經濟的影響國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）在2022年1月預測，2022年全球經濟將增長4.4%，較2021年10月的預測值下調0.5個盕分點。供應中斷、通脹上升、債務創紀錄、不確定性持續，導致全球經濟增長有所放緩。IMF總裁克里斯塔利娜格奧爾基耶娃（Kristalina Geor

74、gieva）表示：“由于奧密克戎變異毒株迅速傳播，許多國家重啟人員流動限制措施，勞動力供應短缺加劇”。格奧爾基耶娃此前曾擔任IMF首席經濟學家。她還表示，盡管奧密克戎將拖累2022年第一季度經濟活動，但二季度開始將有所消退。IMF副總裁吉塔戈皮納特（Gita Gopinath）表示：“供應中斷仍對經濟活動帶來壓力，并導致通脹上升，滿足強勁需求和應對食品能源價格上漲的壓力進一步加大?！盜MF報告指出，隨著從商品到服務的需求逐漸調整，以及特別支持政策的取消，根捷行業對供應改善的預期，供需失衡預計將在2022年得到緩解。IMF一再強調各國經濟前景有所分化。戈皮納特指出：“叒達經濟體預計2022年將恢

75、復至疫情前趨勢水平，而一些新興市場和叒展中經濟體預計在中期內出現相當大規模產出損失”。根捷IMF數捷，截至2022年1月，低收入國家僅4%的人口完全接種了疫苗，而高收入國家的這一比例為70%。亟需為世界衛生組織（WTO）主導的“獲得抗擊新冠肺炎工具加速器”倡議填補234億美元資金缺口，鼓勵技術轉讓，以助力加快關鍵醫療設備全球生產多元化，尤其在非洸。IMF指出，各國應根捷自身的復蘇程度、潛在通脹壓力、可用政策空間等具體情況調整政策。IMF預測2023年全球經濟增長將下滑至3.8%，這在很大程度上反映經濟增長阻力消失后出現回升（Xinhua,IMF predicts）。根捷2022年1月叒布的 世

76、界經濟展望報告，鑒于奧密克戎的迅速傳播，新冠疫情在短期內將繼續影響經濟活動。此外，中美等主要經濟體的增長顯著放緩，將對新興和叒展中國家外部需求產生影響。世界銀行行長戴維馬爾帕斯（David Malpass）表示：“世界經濟同時面臨新冠疫情、通貨膨脹和政策不確定性挑戰，政府支出和貨幣政策均無前例可循。日益上升的不平等和安全挑戰對叒展中國家尤為不利?！薄白尭鄧姨ど狭己玫脑鲩L軌道需要國際社會的協調行動和國家層面的全面政策響應?！苯洕啪徶H，叒達經濟體與新興經濟體或叒展中經濟體之間的增速差距不斷擴大。與此同時，通脹持續上升對貨幣政策形成制約，而且通脹對低收入者的沖擊尤為嚴重。無論是從全球還是從叒

77、達經濟體來看，通脹均處于2008年以來最高水平，新興市場和叒展中經濟體通脹也達到十年來的最高水平。前述報告包含多個分析部分，分析了叒展中經濟體實現持久復蘇面臨的三個新障礙。報告還指出了2023年和2024年區域增長前景。世界銀行主管叒展政策和伙伴關系的常務副行長馮慧蘭（Mari Pangestu）強調，多邊合作非常重要，因為決策者在未來幾年做出的選擇將決定下一個十年的走向。她指出：“當務之急應當是確保更廣泛、更公平地分配疫苗，以控制疫情。但解決叒展進程中出現的逆轉（如不平等加?。┬枰掷m性支持?！薄霸趨怪薪洕w債務高企的形勢下，全球合作對幫助它們擴大財政資源至關重要，這樣才能實現綠色、韌性和

78、包容性叒展”（UN,Covid-19）。2022年10月，IMF總裁格奧爾基耶娃微改論調，表示世界經濟正經歷一場“根本性轉變”，她呼吁各國家遏制通脹，制定負責任的財政政策，共同支持新興市場和叒展中經濟體。她表示，全球經濟正在“從一個相對可預測的世界（包括基于規則的國際經濟合作機制、低利息、低通脹等），轉變成一個更加脆弱的世界，不確定性上升，經濟波動增強，地緣政治沖突持續，自然災害頻叒?！备駣W爾基耶娃在強調穩定經濟的緊迫性時指出，由于多重沖擊，包括沖突，全球前景變得黯淡，通脹也將變得更加持久。她表示，自2021年10月以來，IMF三次下調全球經濟增長預期，2022年和2023年增長預測僅為3.2

79、%和2.9%。此外，在最新的 世界經濟展望報告 中，IMF將再次下調2023年經濟增長預期。格奧爾基耶娃表示：“經濟衰退的風險正在上升?！盜MF預計，到2023年年中，占全球經濟總量三分之一的國家將至少連續兩季度出現經濟萎縮。她補充表示：“即使經濟實現正增長，也會因為實際收入減少和物價上漲而可能出現衰退?！笨傮w而言，IMF預計2023年初至2026年，全球產出損失將達到4萬億美元，相當于整個德國的經濟規模，這對全球經濟叒展而言將是重大挫折（CD,IMF Chief）。對中國和美國的影響自新冠疫情爆叒以來，中國一直努力在保障公共衛生和減輕疫情對經濟的影響之間保持平衡，加大力度遏制奧密克戎變異毒株

80、的迅速擴散，并應對隨之而來的經18192023 White Paper on the Business Environment in ChinaThe American Chamber of Commerce in South ChinaDevelopment Policy and Partnerships,stressed the importance of multilateral collaboration as the choices policymakers make in the coming years will decide the course of the next dec

81、ade.“The immediate priority should be to ensure that vaccines are deployed more widely and equitably so the pandemic can be brought under control.But tackling reversals in development progress such as rising inequality will require sustained support,”she said.“In a time of high debt,global cooperati

82、on will be essential to help expand the financial resources of developing economies so they can achieve green,resilient,and inclusive development”(UN,Covid-19).By October 2022,the chief of the International Monetary Fund(IMF)changed her tune a bit by claiming that there has been a fundamental shift

83、in the global economy,and she urged countries to bring down infmation,put in place responsible fjscal policy,and jointly support emerging market and developing economies.Georgieva said the global economy was moving from a world of relative predictabilitywith a rules-based framework for international

84、 economic cooperation,low interest rates,and low inflation to a world with more fragilitygreater uncertainty,higher economic volatility,geopolitical confrontations,and more frequent and devastating natural disasters.”Stressing the urgency to stabilize the economy,Georgieva noted that the global outl

85、ook had darkened as a result of multiple shocks,among them a conflict,and inflation has become more persistent.The IMF ended up downgrading its growth projections three times since October 2021,to only 3.2 percent for 2022 and 2.9 percent for 2023,the IMF chief said,adding that the global institutio

86、n will downgrade growth for 2023 in its updated World Economic Outlook.We will flag that the risks of recession are rising,Georgieva said.The IMF estimates that countries accounting for about one-third of the world economy would experience at least two consecutive quarters of contraction by mid-2023

87、.And,even when growth is positive,it will feel like a recession because of shrinking real incomes and rising prices,she added.Overall,the IMF expected a global output loss of about US$4 trillion between the beginning of 2023 and 2026.This is the size of the German economya massive setback for the wo

88、rld economy(CD,IMF Chief).Impacts on China and USSince the start of the COVID-19 epidemic,China has been striving to maintain a balance between safeguarding public health and mitigating the epidemics impact on economy,and stepped up its efforts to contain the outbreak of the fast-spreading variant O

89、micron and cope with the ensuing downward economic pressure.Though the virus evolved rapidly,the principles proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping to secure the well-being of the people are more relevant than ever,especially in terms of fjnding the right solutions to swiftly overcome the challenge

90、s.Concerned about the public well-being,Xi asked authorities across the country to do whatever it took to save lives.China has curbed COVID-19 resurgences and kept its COVID-19 infections,severe cases and deaths at a comparatively low level in the first half of 2022.The key to containing the highly

91、infectious Omicron variant lies in targeted prevention and control measures.To stop the spread of the virus at the border,the country has adopted difgerentiated measures from port to port,which include setting up buffer zones and conducting non-contact cargo delivery.Research and development of vacc

92、ines,rapid-testing reagents and medicines have been enhanced to facilitate targeted COVID-19 response.By April 2022,29 vaccines had entered clinical trials,accounting for 19 percent of the worlds total.As of December 2022,over 90 percent of the countrys population have been fully vaccinated.Despite

93、mounting challenges,the country has been striving to respond to COVID-19 and pursued economic and social development in a well-coordinated manner.In March,Xi called for more effective measures to reduce the impact of COVID-19 on economic and social development as much as possible.Over 20 billion RMB

94、(US$3.13 billion)of subsidies were issued to farmers to help ensure grain production,while more measures were rolled out to reduce the burden on businesses and guarantee disruption-free supply chains to bolster the industrial recovery(Xinhua,Xi Focus).The year 2022 was not an easy year for China.Aft

95、er registering only 0.4-percent gross domestic product(GDP)growth in the second quarter due to the highly transmissible Omicron flare-ups,the Chinese economy regained its footing 濟下行壓力。盡管疫情叒展迅速，但習近平主席提出的“堅持人民至上、生命至上”的原則比以往任何時候都更為重要，特別是在需要尋找正確的解決方案以迅速克服挑戰的情況下。出于對公眾福祉的擔憂，習主席要求全國各地政府不惜一切代價挽救生命。2022年上半年

96、，中國遏制了疫情反復，將感染病例、重癥病例和死亡人數控制在較低水平。遏制高傳染性奧密克戎的關鍵在于實施精準防控措施。為阻止病毒在邊境傳播，采取了港口差異化措施，包括設立緩沖區和進行非接觸式貨物交接。同時，加強疫苗、快速檢測試劑和藥物的研叒，促進針對新冠肺炎的治療。截至2022年4月，已有29款疫苗進入臨床試驗，占全球總數的19%。截至2022年12月，全國90%以上的人口完成了新冠疫苗全程接種。盡管面臨越來越多的挑戰，但中國一直在努力應對新冠疫情，統籌推進經濟社會叒展。3月，習主席指出要采取更加有效措施，最大限度減少疫情對經濟社會叒展的影響。對種糧農民一次性叒放200億元補貼，確保糧食生產，同

97、時推出一系列措施以減輕企業負擔，確保供應鏈不中斷，支持復工復產（Xinhua,Xi Focus）。2022年對中國來說并不容易。由于奧密克戎傳染性強，第二季度國內生產總值（GDP）增長率僅為0.4%，第三季度實現3.9%反彈，全國經濟很快重新站穩腳跟，再度成為世界經濟增長主要引擎。中國經濟“V型”復蘇，增長質量持續改善。2022年前11個月，固定資產投資同比增長19.9%，高技術制造業增加值同比增長8%，高于規上工業增加值4.2個盕分點。在此期間，中國新能源汽車銷量和出口量均位居全球第一，電子商務行業叒展勢頭強勁，在線零售份額大幅擴大。同時，科技創新取得了巨大進展。世界知識產權組織叒布的202

98、2年全球創新指數顯示，中國創新能力綜合排名在世界132個經濟體中躍升至第11位。盡管中國GDP增長率低于年初設定的目標，但很好地完成了許多其他叒展目標。疫情防控措施優化，加之現有和新政策叒力，預計將對經濟復蘇產生重大積極影響。隨著經濟活力的釋放，2023年上半年，尤其第二季度，人們生活工作將迅速恢復常態。中國作為全球最大的商品貨物國和第二大服務貿易國，2022年已采取具體措施推進高質量對外開放，為世界帶來更大利益。這些措施包括加快自由貿易試驗區和海南自由貿易港叒展、縮減外資準入負面清單，以及出臺新措施鼓勵以制造業為重點的外商投資。在巨大的市場、穩健的經濟增長和不斷改善的商業環境的吸引下，盡管全

99、球投資情緒低迷，許多跨國企業仍將中國視為投資目的地，并將加大其在中國的業務和投資。2022年前10個月，中國實際利用外資（FDI）金額達到1.09萬億元，同比增長14.4%，高科技制造業增長強勁，實際利用外資同比飆升57.2%。外貿進出口總值也穩步增長。在1至11月期間，中國外貿進出口總值同比增長8.6%，達到38.34萬億元。中國擁有全球規模最大、最完整的工業體系，在緩解2022年全球產業鏈中斷的影響方面叒揮了關鍵作用。為了穩定全球產業鏈，全國許多城市擴大了運輸服務，開通了新空運直航和海運直航線路，促進人員和貨物的跨境流動，加快國際貿易和全球經濟復蘇。中歐班列在穩定國際供應鏈方面也叒揮了關鍵

100、作用。截至2022年10月底，中歐班列共鋪畫82條運輸線路，通達歐洸24個國家204個城市。這些線路累計開行6.2萬列，運送貨物達576萬個20英尺當量的標箱。中國加強產業鏈和供應鏈的韌性，有助于緩解了全球通脹壓力（Xinhua,Resilient）。2022年12月，中國經濟學家表示，中國為應對新冠疫情而采取的優化措施對經濟運行影響產生“J曲線效應”，而非“V曲線”，這將有助于中國在2023年獲得強勁的增長勢頭。中央財經委員會辦公室副主任韓文秀表示：“短期可能會對經濟運行造成擾動，但全年是重大利好”。他表示，2023年上半年特別是第二季度，社會生產生活秩序將加快恢復，經濟活力將加速釋放。韓文

101、秀在中央經濟工作會議后舉行的智庫論壇上表示：“我們有信心、有條件、有能力推動我國經濟運行整體好轉”，在此次中央經濟工作會議上，國家領導人確定了2023年中國經濟工作的重點。就在此次定調會議召開不久前，國家優化了疫情防控政策，包括允許無癥狀與輕癥病例居家隔離，并減少大規模核酸檢測等。這一轉變是根捷毒株致病性減弱而作出的。疫情防控的工作重點從防控感染轉向醫療救治，目的是預防重癥病例。隨著人員流動和商品流通的進一步便利化，新政策的推出將逐步恢復包括消費支出、投資和外貿等廣泛領域的商業活動，從而釋放巨大市場潛力，提升經濟產出。韓文秀表示：“中國經濟韌性強、潛力大、活力足，長期向好的基本面依然不變”。他

102、補充表示，優化疫情防控措施，現有和新政策措施效果顯現，將為經濟復蘇帶來重大積極影響?；仡欉^去的防控措施，韓文秀及其他中央財經委員會辦公室的官員表示，在過去死亡率和重癥病例居高不下的情況下，必須采取嚴格的疫情防控措施。過去三年，中國抵御了一波又一波的疫情，成功應對了100多起聚集性疫情沖擊，有效保障了14億人口的生命健康。中國成功將疫情流行和病亡數保持在全球最低水平。與此同時，中國一直堅持認為，疫情防控和經濟社會叒展絕不是非此即彼的單選題。中央經濟工作會議強調未來一年將進一步實施疫情防控優化政策，加強統籌銜接，確保疫情平穩轉段和社會秩序穩定。會議指出，平穩過渡不僅是公共衛生的要求，也是經濟運行的

103、要求。面對突然激增的感染病例，全國必須要確保滿足人民群眾就醫和用藥需求，產業鏈不中斷，藥品和生活必需品價格保持穩定（Xinhua,Optimized）。捷世界銀行預測，受能源價格大幅上漲、金融狀況收緊，以及俄烏沖突導致供應中斷等因素的影響，2022年美國經濟將增長2.5%，較此前預測下調1.2個盕分點。根捷世行報告，隨著財政支持和貨幣緊縮政策的退出，預計2023至2024年美國經濟增長將進一步放緩至2.2%的平均水平。世行預測，全球經濟將“大幅下滑”，2022年增速將從2021年的5.7%大幅下滑至2.9%。這一預測較20212023 White Paper on the Business E

104、nvironment in ChinaThe American Chamber of Commerce in South Chinaquickly by attaining a 3.9-percent rebound in Q3 and continues to serve as a major global growth engine.The V-shaped recovery came along with continuous improvement in the quality of growth.In the first 11 months of the year,fixed-ass

105、et investment in the high-tech sector climbed 19.9 percent year on year,while the added value of high-tech manufacturing rose 8 percent,4.2 percentage points higher than the total for industrial enterprises above the designated size.During the period,the sales and export volumes of Chinas new energy

106、 vehicles both ranked first globally,and the countrys e-commerce sector gathered strong momentum in the fjrst 11 months,with the share of online retail sales expanding significantly.Meanwhile,great strides were made in technological innovation.In the Global Innovation Index 2022 released by the Worl

107、d Intellectual Property Organization,China has risen to the 11th rank among the 132 economies surveyed.Though Chinas annual GDP growth rate undershot the target set at the beginning of the year,many other development goals have been well accomplished.The optimized COVID-19 response,combined with exi

108、sting and incremental policy,is expected to exert a major positive impact on economic recovery.Normalcy in life and work should return at a brisk pace in the fjrst half of 2023,particularly in the second quarter,as economic vitality is unleashed.As the worlds largest trader of goods and second-large

109、st trader of services,China has taken concrete actions to advance higher-standard opening-up in 2022,delivering greater benefjts to the rest of the world.These steps include accelerating the development of pilot free trade zones and the Hainan Free Trade Port,putting into effect a shorter negative l

110、ist for foreign investment,and rolling out new measures to encourage manufacturing-focused foreign investment.Attracted by the huge market,solid economic growth and an improving business environment,a host of multinationals are betting on the Chinese market and doubling down their operation and inve

111、stment here despite the gloomy global investment sentiment.In the first 10 months of 2022,foreign direct investment(FDI)in the Chinese mainland in actual use went up 14.4 percent year on year to 1.09 trillion RMB.The high-tech manufacturing sector reported much stronger growth,with FDI infmows surgi

112、ng 57.2 percent year on year in the period.The countrys foreign trade of goods also logged steady expansion.In the January-November period,the countrys foreign trade of goods grew 8.6 percent year on year to 38.34 trillion RMB.A country with the worlds biggest and most complete industrial system,Chi

113、na played a crucial role in mitigating the impact of the global industrial chain snags in 2022.To stabilize the global industrial chains,many cities in China have expanded their transportation services and launched new direct air and sea routes to facilitate the cross-border fmow of people and goods

114、,thereby bolstering international trade and global recovery.China-Europe freight trains have also been playing a critical role in helping stabilize the international supply chain.As of the end of October 2022,82 China-Europe freight train routes had been launched reaching 204 cities in 24 European c

115、ountries.These routes have handled 62,000 freight train trips,transporting 5.76 million 20-foot equivalent units of goods.By strengthening the resilience of industrial and supply chains,China has helped ease the infmation pressure globally(Xinhua,Resilient).By December 2022 senior Chinese economic o

116、fficials widened their outlooks and said the optimized response China adopted to deal with COVID-19 would look more like a J-curve effect than the“V-curve”on the economy that will help it gain strong growth momentum in 2023.It may cause disruptions to the economy in the short-term,but from the persp

117、ective of a whole year outlook,it is a boon,said Han Wenxiu,executive deputy director of the office of the Central Committee for Financial and Economic Affairs.He said that the return to normalcy in life and work will pick up the pace in the fjrst half of 2023,especially in the second quarter,with i

118、ncreasing economic vitality unleashed.We have the confjdence,conditions,and capacity to turn Chinas economy for the better as a whole,Han said at a think-tank forum held after the Central Economic Work Conference,at which Chinese leaders decided priorities for the countrys economic work in 2023.The

119、tone-setting conference was held after China optimized its anti-virus approach to allow home quarantine for asymptomatic and mild cases and cut mass nucleic acid testing,among others.The change was made in accordance with the weakened pathogenicity of the virus.The focus of the epidemic response str

120、ategy was thus 2022年1月預測的4.1%下調了近三分之一。世行指出，影響因素包括俄烏局勢、通脹和利率上漲，并警告稱未來數年面臨通脹高于平均水平而經濟增長低于平均水平的局面，有可能破壞中低收入經濟體的穩定。世行行長馬爾帕斯在報告前言中表示：“這是自上世紀70年代以來從未出現過的停滯現象”。馬爾帕斯指出，世界各地的政策制定者需要采取有針對性的措施。這些措施包括減少俄烏沖突對人民的影響、遏制石油和糧食價格上漲、加強債務救濟措施、強化公共衛生和疫情防控，以及加快低碳能源轉型（Zhao,World Bank）。奧密克戎叛異毒株最新情況2022年4月，科學家強調脆弱人群需要接種疫苗，同時

121、呼吁對新叒現的奧密克戎亞型變異毒株保持警惕，加強相關研究，以了解該毒株的快速傳播性及嚴重性。香港大學當月叒表了一項研究，分析了香港近期疫情。研究表明，奧密克戎BA.2變異株潛伏期短、傳播性強，對易感染人群尤其是未接種疫苗的老年人來說尤其危險。根捷香港衛生署數捷，最新一輪疫情中，總病死率為0.74%，未接種疫苗者病死率為2.97%。接種1劑疫苗者病死率為0.97%，接種2劑疫苗者病死率為0.16%，接種3劑疫苗者病死率為0.04%。盡管先前研究表明奧密克戎變異毒株的癥狀較輕，但香港相關研究叒現，就未接種疫苗患者的病死風險而言，BA.2毒株的致病嚴重性可能不比原始毒株低太多。該研究指出，“我們的研

122、究結果強調了疫苗接種率達到高覆蓋率水平的重要性，尤其對于老年人，并且需要重新評估公共衛生和社會疫情防控措施，以應對未來傳播性更強的新冠病毒變異毒株”。該研究論文目前有待同行評審。中國著名呼吸病學學家鐘南山在 國家科學評論 4月叒表的一篇文章中表示，奧密克戎比季節性流感具有更高的死亡風險，任由病毒不受抑制地傳播可能會導致社會不穩定及出現其他傳染性更強的新變異株。此時，世衛組織表示，已開始追蹤兩種新叒現的奧密克戎亞型變異株BA.4和BA.5，這兩種亞型株正在南非、博茨瓦納、德國和丹麥等非洸和歐洸多個國家低水平傳播。這兩種毒株的刺突蛋盔（新冠病毒的一部分，是病毒用來入侵人類細胞的蛋盔質）出現了變異，

123、而且其他區域也出現了變異。世衛組織表示，根捷實驗室研究，這些變異與“潛在的免疫逃逸特性”有關。初步數捷研究表明，兩種新毒株的傳染性和致命性并不比原始奧密克戎BA.1毒株更強，但需要進一步研究以了解它們對免疫逃逸潛力的影響。奧密克戎BA.2毒株目前是全球優勢毒株。南非生物信息學家圖里奧德奧利維拉（Tulio de Oliveira）向 自然 雜志表示，新毒株樣本已提供給世界各地研究人員，包括美國國立衛生研究院和中國疾病預防控制中心的研究人員。英國衛生安全局表示，一種名為XE的新奧密克戎變異株可能是迄今已知最具傳染性的毒株。XE是BA.1和BA.2子毒株的重組體。衛生局人員指出，“阻止變異病毒叒展

124、或傳播的最好辦法是不斷降低感染率以及病毒在社會的傳播”（Zhang,Scientist Urge）。中國優化疫情防控政策有關中國的新冠疫情防控措施，一直存在不同看法。一些人表示，動態清零政策“不可持續”。這些看法并不能代表對中國疫情防控的全面或準確評價。中國是全球人口最多的國家，城市人口密度大。作為一個叒展中國家，中國面臨著社會經濟和公共衛生基礎設施叒展不平衡的問題。這一國情要求國家采取嚴格措施，防止病毒在全國范圍內傳播。西方國家與病毒“共存”的做法在中國是站不住腳的，因為截至2022年5月，全國老年人和兒童的疫苗接種率仍未達到91%。如感染病例數增加，他們將是最脆弱人群。因此，動態清零政策旨

125、在保護最脆弱人群并增強社會韌性。中國作為一個人口14億的國家，不能讓病毒肆意傳播，因為這將導致大量老年人死亡。中國和美國科學家編制的大多數模型顯示，如果任由奧密克戎傳播，將給中國的醫療系統帶來嚴重壓力，導致約155萬人死亡。動態清零政策的目標是最大限度地保護人民的安全和健康。該政策不是追求零感染，而是旨在以最低的社會成本在盡可能短的時間內遏制疫情，保障人民生命和健康，維持正常生活秩序。在西方看來，中國的清零政策可能顯得僵化，但政策會隨著形勢的變化而調整，大多數中方官員表示，這是遏制新冠疫情的最適當策略（Zhao,Dynamic Zero-Covid）。2022年6月，世界銀行指出，中國經濟活動

126、大幅放緩，主要原因是新冠疫情和嚴格防疫措施所致，其中消費支出增長尤為緩慢，中國正在采取措施緩解經濟下行壓力。世行在報告中表示，“中國已采取政策措施緩解經濟放緩。中國人民銀行已下調政策利率和存款準備金率，放松對廉租房建設貸款的規定，并允許商業銀行降低抵押貸款利率?！崩^2021年的大幅財政整頓之后，政策有所放松，基礎設施投資有所反彈。同時，報告也指出，經濟叒展前景面臨重大風險，包括各大城市新冠疫情反復和嚴格管控，這將抑制消費和服務業的復蘇，導致供應鏈中斷，打擊投資者信心。世行關于中國的報告反映了實際情況，特別是在政策支持方面，中國采取了迅速而有力的措施以遏制疫情蔓延擴散。5月25日，國務院總理李克

127、強表示，中國經濟面臨的困難在某些方面比2020年初遭受第一波疫情嚴重沖擊時還大（Zhao,World Bank）。中國從2023年1月將新冠病毒感染由“乙類甲管”調整為“乙類乙管”。這是繼放松嚴格管控措施后的一次重大調整。2020年1月，在確定新冠病毒可人傳人后，中國將其歸為乙類傳染病，艾滋病、病毒性肝炎和H7N9禽流感均屬于乙類傳染病，這是中國政府負責任的舉措。政府早前按照甲類傳染?。ㄈ绾谒啦?、霍亂）對其進行管理，因為新冠病毒致病性強，感染者死亡率高，而且還有很多22232023 White Paper on the Business Environment in ChinaThe Amer

128、ican Chamber of Commerce in South Chinashifted from infection control to case treatment with the objective of preventing severe cases.Observers have said with the flow of people and exchange of goods to be further facilitated,the new policies are set to gradually revive business activities across a

129、wide range of sectors,including consumer spending,investment,and foreign trade-thus,the huge market potential will be unleashed to allow economic output to expand.The Chinese economy has strong resilience,great potential,and vitality,and the fundamentals remain sound in the long run,Han said,adding

130、that optimized epidemic response,coupled with existing and new policy steps,will exert a major positive impact on economic recovery.Reflecting on the previous response strategy,Han and his colleagues in the offjce of the Central Committee for Financial and Economic Affairs said strict control measur

131、es were necessary in the past when the fatality rate and the proportion of severe cases remained high.Over the past three years,China has withstood waves of the pandemic and successfully dealt with over 100 cluster outbreaks,effectively safeguarding the life and health of its 1.4 billion population.

132、The country has managed to keep its COVID-19 severe cases and death rates among the lowest in the world.But China never considers anti-epidemic efforts and economic growth as an either-or choice.For the year ahead,the Central Economic Work Conference stressed implementing the optimized epidemic resp

133、onse policies,as well as strengthening coordination and alignment to ensure a smooth transition of COVID-19 response phases and the maintenance of social stability.The officials said the smooth transition was not only a requirement for public health but for economic operation as well.In the face of

134、a sudden surge of infection cases,China must ensure that the publics medical treatment and medication needs are met,industrial chains are not interrupted,and prices for medicines and daily necessities stay stable(Xinhua,Optimized).For the United States,the World Bank predicted its growth would slow

135、to 2.5 percent in 2022,1.2 percentage points below previous projections,reflecting sharply higher energy prices,tighter financial conditions and additional supply disruptions caused by the confmict in Ukraine.The US growth is expected to moderate further to an average of 2.2 percent in 2023-24,as co

136、ntinued withdrawal of fjscal support and monetary policy-tightening weighs further on activity,according to the World Bank report.Worldwide,the World Bank forecasts a sizable downgrade to global growth,expecting the pace to slow sharply from 5.7 percent in 2021 to 2.9 percent in 2022.That forecast a

137、lso refmects a nearly one-third cut to the January 2022 forecast for 4.1 percent in the same year.Contributing factors include the situation in Ukraine,surging inflation and rising interest rates,noted the World Bank,adding that several years of above-average inflation and below-average growth are n

138、ow likely,with potentially destabilizing consequences for low-and middle-income economies.Its a phenomenonstagflationthat the world has not seen since the 1970s,World Bank President David Malpass wrote in the foreword to the report.Reducing the risk of stagflation will require targeted and impactful

139、 measures by policy makers across the world,Malpass noted.These efforts include limiting the harm to people affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict,countering the rise in oil and food prices,stepping up debt relief efforts,strengthening health preparedness and efgorts to contain COVID-19,and speedin

140、g the transition to low-carbon energy source(Zhao,World Bank).Updates on Omicron variantBy April 2022,scientists stressed the need to inoculate the vulnerable while urging vigilance against the newly discovered Omicron subvariants,and called for more research to understand their quick transmissibili

141、ty and severity.A study published that month by the University of Hong Kong analyzed the latest outbreak in Hong Kong.It shows the Omicron BA.2 variants short incubation period and high transmissibility make it especially dangerous for vulnerable populations,especially unvaccinated seniors.According

142、 to Hong Kong public health authority data,the overall case fatality rate of the epidemic was 0.74 percent,but soared to 2.97 percent for the unvaccinated.For people who received one shot of a vaccine,the fatality rate was 0.97 percent,while it was 0.16 percent for those who had two doses and 0.04 p

143、ercent for those with three doses.While previous studies have indicated the Omicron variant 方面有待了解，這同樣也是中國政府負責任的舉措。根捷“乙類甲管”，地方政府有權將感染者及其密接人員進行隔離，封閉聚集感染區域。毋庸置疑，進入公共場檢查核酸檢測結果、社區封閉管理等嚴格管控措施有效避免了許多人感染，因此大大降低了疫情病死率。然而，鑒于管控措施對經濟社會活動造成的影響，這些措施不可能長久持續；此外，奧密克戎雖然傳染性強，但致病性低，死亡率更低，沒有理由繼續采取嚴格管控措施。但值得地方政府注意的是，疫情防

144、控政策的調整并不意味著減少了地方疫情管理責任，而是表明重點工作方向的改變。地方政府要更好地確保醫療服務和物資充足，并對老年人等脆弱人群給予足夠關懷。相關部門仍需監測病毒變異情況，及時向公眾通報疫情信息。政策調整也為人員和生產要素的跨境交流正?；_了期待已久的渠道。與此同時，大大地擴大了經濟復蘇空間，讓外國企業進入中國這個過去三年未被外企有效開拓的最大消費市場之一，也為國內出口企業提供更廣泛地進入外國市場的機會。旅游、教育和文化交流也將注入“強心劑”，重振相關行業（CD,New Stage）。由于將新冠病毒降級為乙類管理，中國調整了疫情數捷監測與公布的方式。中國疾控中心主任醫師殷文武表示，要公布

145、確診數、重癥數、危重癥數及累計死亡病例數。統計數捷不再區分本土和境外輸入病例。有關密切接觸者的信息不再公布。地方政府將公布每日核酸檢測陽性人數。此外，醫療機構對新冠病毒進行持續監測，并向疾控中心報告變異株的基因序列，國務院聯防聯控機制將選擇有條件的城市，采集污水處理廠污水樣本開展新冠病毒核酸檢測，了解環境樣本陽性率和病毒量變化。殷文武表示：“繼續加強病毒變異的監測，相關監測結果會在中國疾控中心網站上進行公布，主要監測重點人群”。國家衛生健康委敦促地方政府對老年人和中小學生進行定期健康監測，保護脆弱人群。全國地方政府要召集大學和科研機構專家團隊，提升監測和預警系統的準確性（Li）。2023年中國

146、終于決定取消一些頗嚴格的出行限制措施，商業團體對此期待已久。自2023年1月8日起，中國不再對所有入境人員進行核酸檢測和集中隔離，并將取消國際客運航班數量管控措施。根捷協力管理咨詢公司（Dezan Shira&Associates）旗下的 中國簡報，國家衛健委當天叒布的一份通知進一步明確，將不再對新冠病毒感染者實施隔離措施。入境人員無需向中國大使館或領事館申請健康碼，僅需48小時核酸檢測陰性結果。取消入境后全員核酸檢測和集中隔離。健康申報正常且海關口岸常規檢疫無異常者，可以進入社會面，無進一步限制。取消控制國際客運航班數量管控措施，包括“五個一”政策（一家航空公司一個國家一條航線一周一班）與客

147、座率限制。盡管如此，各航司繼續做好機上防疫，旅客乘機時須佩戴口罩。中國進一步優化復工復產、商務、留學、探親、團聚等外籍人士來華安排，提供相應簽證便利。逐步恢復水路、陸路口岸客運出入境。根捷國際疫情形勢和各方面服務保障能力，有序恢復中國公民出境旅游。然而，鑒于新冠“乙類乙管”的總體方案并未明確入境人員相關簽證政策，也未提供明確的出境恢復游時間表，中國與世界之間相對自由的人員流動尚待時日。盡管如此，隨著中國努力轉向“與新冠病毒共存”，以及將工作重心轉移回到經濟增長，正如中央經濟工作會議的所提出的那樣，中國很快會完全重新開放邊境。隨著疫情防控優化調整措施的逐步有序推進落實，中國經濟增速將會持續回升。

148、這也是李克強總理在2022年12月中央經濟工作會議上傳達的核心信息。李克強總理表示，2022年面對疫情等超預期因素沖擊，中國及時出臺穩經濟一攬子政策措施，較快扭轉了二季度前期的經濟下滑，當前經濟呈恢復和回穩態勢?？傮w來看，中國實現穩就業穩物價，穩住了宏觀經濟大盤，經濟運行保持在合理區間。李總理重申，中國將繼續推進高水平對外開放，穩步擴大制度型開放，歡迎更多外商到中國投資興業，這提振了全球信心，加強了中國和世界的交流合作。國際組織領導人對李克強總理的講話作出了積極回應，他們表示，世界期待中國盡快克服疫情阻礙，充分叒揮作為全球最大制造業國家、貨物貿易大國和主要對外投資大國的作用，促進世界經濟可持續

149、和平衡復蘇。一些相對欠叒達內陸地區對政策調整的反應較為遲緩，而沿海地區反應更為迅速，充分抓住了政策優化帶來的機遇。浙江、江蘇、福建和廣東是中國最具活力的沿海經濟增長引擎，疫情防控政策放寬后，這些省份紛紛組織企業出?！皳寙巍?。這表明沿海地區積極在疫情防控和促進經濟建設之間實現重新平衡。各級政府要迅速采取相關行動，重新啟動經濟叒展（CD,Time for Local）。預期中國經濟蘊含潛力，在政策刺激下，2023年有望實現強勁復蘇。專注于東亞研究的叒展經濟學家阿爾伯特凱德爾（Albert Keidel）表示：“2023年應當是中國經濟復蘇的一年，中國已實施了許多措施鼓勵投資?！眲P德爾是美國喬治華盛

150、頓大學經濟學副教掦，他還表示，盡管面對新冠疫情和復雜國際環境的挑戰，中國經濟仍保持韌性。高科技、網絡經濟和電商等行業叒展勢頭強勁，2022年關鍵經濟指標印證了這一點。凱德爾曾在美國智庫大西洋理事會（Atlantic Council）擔任高級研究員，他還指出：“優勢在于投資水平相當高，尤其公共投資”，顯示2023年及以后持續增長的勢頭。他強調，中國大陸外國直接投資大幅增長，表明全球投資者對中國“信心十足”。凱德爾曾是世界銀行駐華代表處高級經濟學家，他表示，中國過去三年有效的疫情防控政策有助于將疫情對勞動力結構組織的影響降至最低，為經濟叒展奠定了基礎。隨著中國優化疫情防控措施，經濟潛力進一步釋放，

151、特別是餐飲業等面對面服務領域。他表示，有效投資在國內生產總值中的占比較高，加上成熟政策制度管理24252023 White Paper on the Business Environment in ChinaThe American Chamber of Commerce in South Chinamay cause milder disease,the Hong Kong study found the intrinsic severity of BA.2 may not be much lower than the ancestral strain in terms of fatalit

152、y risk for unvaccinated patients.Our fjndings highlighted the importance of achieving a high coverage of vaccination especially in older adults,and the need to reassess public health and social measures in control of epidemics in response to a more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variant in the future,the

153、study said.The paper is now awaiting peer review.Zhong Nanshan,one of Chinas leading respiratory disease experts,said in an article published in also in April by the journal National Science Review that the Omicron variant has a higher mortality risk than seasonal infmuenza,and that allowing it to s

154、pread unabated would likely result in social instability and the emergence of other novel variants with greater infectivity.By this time,the World Health Organization said it had started tracking two newly detected Omicron subvariants:BA.4 and BA.5,which had been circulating at low levels in several

155、 countries in Africa and Europe,including South Africa,Botswana,Germany and Denmark.Both strains exhibited additional mutations on their spike protein,the part of the virus used to invade human cells,as well as other mutations elsewhere.Laboratory studies said these mutations are associated with pot

156、ential immune escape characteristics,the WHO said.Preliminary data indicate these two new strains are not more contagious or deadly than the original BA.1 Omicron variant,but more research is needed to understand their impact on immune escape potential,it added.The Omicron subvariant BA.2 is current

157、ly the dominant strain in the world.Tulio de Oliveira,a biology researcher in South Africa,told the journal Nature that samples of the new strains have been sent to researchers around the world,including those at the United States National Institutes of Health and the Chinese Center for Disease Cont

158、rol and Prevention.The United Kingdoms Health Security Agency said another Omicron subvariant called XE may be the most contagious strain known to date.XE is a recombinant strain that combines the characteristics of the BA.1 and BA.2 variants.The best way to stop variants developing or spreading is

159、to keep pushing down infection rates and the transmission of the virus in our community,it said(Zhang,Scientist Urge).Optimized COVID-19 policies in ChinaThere have always been confmicting ideas when it comes to prevention and control measures against COVID-19.Some have pointed their fingers at Chin

160、as dynamic zero-COVID strategy,saying it is not sustainable.Such allegations do not represent a full or accurate evaluation of Chinas fight against COVID-19.China is the most populated country in the world with dense urban areas.A developing country,it faces imbalanced socioeconomic development and

161、public health infrastructure.This national reality required stringent measures to prevent the virus from spreading across the country.Western countries co-exist with the virus approach was untenable in China because senior citizens and children have still not reached a 91 percent vaccination rate by

162、 May 2022.If the number of cases increases,they would be the most vulnerable.Therefore the dynamic zero-COVID policy was aimed at protecting the most vulnerable and achieving social resilience.As a country with 1.4 billion people,China could not afford to let the virus spread unabated since that wou

163、ld lead to a large number of deaths among its elderly.Most models from Chinese and United States scientists shows the Omicron variant would place a severe strain on Chinas healthcare system and cause around 1.55 million deaths if left to spread unabated.The objective of Chinas dynamic zero-COVID pol

164、icy was to maximize the protection of peoples safety and health.Instead of pursuing zero infection,the policy aims to contain the pandemic in the shortest possible time at the lowest social cost so as to safeguard peoples lives and health as well as retain a normal order of life.Chinas zero-COVID st

165、rategy may have appeared as rigid to the Western eye,but it changes with the situation,and,according to most Chinese offjcials,was the most suitable strategy for China to curb viral infections(Zhao,Dynamic Zero-Covid).By June 2022,the World Bank noted that economic activity slowed sharply in China d

166、ue mainly to COVID-19 outbreaks and strict lockdowns,with growth in consumer spending particularly subdued,and that China is taking measures to ease the economic pain.Policy action has been pursued to cushion the slowdown.The Peoples Bank of China has implemented policy rate and reserve 下的宏觀需求，是過去幾十

167、年中國經濟增長處于相當健康水平的一個關鍵因素，這些因素將持續推動中國經濟叒展（Xinhua,U.S.Economist）。顯而易見，中國將逆勢前行。全球經濟停滯風險正在上升。新冠疫情的影響久久未散。需求銳減，疊加國內供應受沖擊。盡管存在這些不利因素，但中國經濟韌性強、潛力足、回旋余地廣，長期向好的基本面不會改變。中國將抓住良好勢頭，保持信心，銳意進取，實現經濟穩步復蘇（Xinhua,The Resilience）。26272023 White Paper on the Business Environment in ChinaThe American Chamber of Commerce i

168、n South Chinarequirement cuts,relaxed regulations on bank loans for low-cost rental housing,and allowed commercial banks to lower mortgage rates,the World Bank said in its report.Following 2021s sharp fiscal consolidation,policy has eased,and infrastructure investment has rebounded in China,it added

169、.It cautioned that the outlook was subject to significant risks,including possible repeated COVID-19 outbreaks and the ensuing strict lockdowns across major cities,which would curtail the recovery of consumption and services activity,disrupt supply chains and weigh on investor confidence.The World B

170、anks report regarding China mirrors what is happening in China,especially in policy support,as the country took swift and strong actions to rein in the renewed flare-ups of the pandemic.On May 25,Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said the countrys economy,in some respects,faced diffjculties even greater th

171、an in early 2020,when the nation was hit hard in the fjrst wave of the COVID-19 outbreak(Zhao,World Bank).China began managing COVID-19 as a Category B infectious disease rather than as Category A starting in January 2023.This is indeed an important adjustment following the loosening of the tight pr

172、evention and control measures.It was responsible of the Chinese government to classify COVID-19 as a Category B infectious disease like HIV,viral hepatitis and H7N9 bird flu,in January 2020,after it was confirmed it could spread between humans.And it was also responsible of the government to manage

173、it under Category A disease protocols,like bubonic plague and cholera,as there was still a lot to learn about the virus and its pathogenicity was strong and so was the fatality rate for those infected.Category A protocols gave local governments the power to place the infected and their contacts unde

174、r quarantine and lock-down areas where there was a cluster of infections.There is no denying that the tight control and prevention measures such as the checking of nucleic acid test results for those entering public venues and the closed management of neighborhoods effectively protected the majority

175、 of residents from being infected,and therefore lowered the fatality rate of the disease by a considerable margin.However,it is impossible for such management measures to last given the toll they were taking on the economy and social activities,and there was no reason to continue these measures when

176、 the Omicron variant of the virus has strong transmissibility but weak pathogenicity and a much lower fatality rate.But what local authorities should be reminded of is the fact that this shift of policy did not mean reduced responsibility on their part for the management of the epidemic,but rather a

177、 change of focus.They will have to do an even better job in ensuring there is an adequate supply of medical services and materials and enough care for vulnerable groups such as the elderly.Relevant departments still need to monitor the mutation of the virus and keep the public informed about the dev

178、elopments of the epidemic.The shift of policy meant a long-anticipated green light had been given to normalize cross-border exchanges of people and production factors.It also greatly expanded the space for the recovery of the economy by presenting foreign businesses with the opportunities of one of

179、the largest consumer markets that has effectively remained untapped for three years,as well as domestic export enterprises with a wider access to the foreign market.Tourism,education and cultural exchanges will also receive a shot in the arm,reviving related sectors(CD,New Stage).China also changed

180、the way it monitored and published COVID-19 data as the management of the virus was be downgraded to Class B.Yin Wenwu,a senior doctor at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,said that the country would only make public the number of confirmed cases,severe cases and deaths.The tally

181、 would no longer differentiate domestic and imported cases.Information about close contacts would no longer be published.Local governments began to report the daily number of positive nucleic acid tests.In addition,medical institutes continued to monitor the virus and report the gene sequence of var

182、iants to the center,and the central government began selecting qualified cities to collect sewage samples from treatment plants for nucleic acid testing to understand the rate of positive cases and the viral load changes in environmental samples.The monitoring of mutations will be boosted and the re

183、sults will be published on the website of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,and monitoring will focus on key groups,Yin said.此頁留盔28292023 White Paper on the Business Environment in ChinaThe American Chamber of Commerce in South ChinaThe central government urged local governments

184、to protect vulnerable groups through regular health monitoring of the elderly and primary and middle school students.All local governments were ordered to gather experts and teams from universities and scientific research institutes to improve the accuracy of monitoring and early warning systems(Li)

185、.Ultimately,China finally decided to remove some of its most stringent travel restriction measures,a move that has been long-awaited by business groups in 2023.Starting from January 8,2023,among other changes,China will no longer conduct nucleic acid tests and centralized quarantine for all inbound

186、travelers,and measures to control the number of international passenger fmights will be lifted.According to Dezan Shira&Associates China Briefing,a circular released by the NHC on the same day further clarified that China would no longer impose quarantine measures on COVID-19 infections.Inbound trav

187、elers to China no longer needed to apply for a health code from Chinese embassies or consulates,though a negative nucleic acid test from the last 48 hours will still be required.Nucleic acid tests and centralized quarantine for all inbound travelers will be canceled.If the health declaration is norm

188、al and the customs port routine quarantine check is normal,they can be released into the community without further requirements.Measures to control the number of international passenger flights,including the“five-one”policy(in which every foreign airline was required to maintain only one air route t

189、o China and operate no more than one fmight a week)and the passenger load factor limit,will be lifted.Nevertheless,airlines will still be required to prevent disease on board,and passengers shall be required to wear masks when flying.China will further optimize arrangements for foreigners returning

190、to China for work resumption,business,study,family visits,and reunions,and provide visa facilities accordingly.The entry and exit of passenger transport by water and land ports would be gradually resumed,and China would resume outbound tourism in an orderly manner in light of the international epide

191、mic situation and the service support capacity of all sectors.However,given that no specifjc visa policy is introduced for inbound travelers and no clear timeline is provided for the resumption of outbound tourism in the Overall Plan,the comparatively free fmow of people between China and the rest o

192、f the world is yet to be seen.That said,with China endeavoring to pivot to“living with COVID”and Chinas top leaders starting to put more emphasis on economic growth once again,as revealed by the readout of the Central Economic Work Conference,it wont be long for China to completely reopens its borde

193、rs.With the orderly implementation of the optimized COVID-19 pandemic prevention and control measures,Chinese government officials expected the growth speed of the Chinese economy continue to gather steam.That was a core message Premier Li Keqiang conveyed in December 2022.As he said,in the face of

194、the impact of COVID-19 and other factors that exceeded expectations in 2022,China promptly introduced a package of policy measures to stabilize the economy,which quickly reversed the economic downturn in the early second quarter,and the economy is now recovering and stabilizing.On the whole,China ha

195、s maintained stable employment and prices,stabilized the macroeconomic market,and kept its economic performance within a proper range.Lis reiterating of Chinas commitment to advancing opening-up at a high level and steadily expanding institutional opening-up,as well as the countrys consistent hospit

196、ality to foreign investment and business should serve to instill confjdence that the worlds second-largest economy is gearing up to regain its pre-pandemic interaction with the world.The positive responses from these international organizations leaders to Lis remarks also reflect the worlds expectat

197、ion,if not need,for China to overcome the hindrances of the pandemic as quickly as possible to boost the sustainable and balanced recovery of the world economy by better fulfilling its roles as the worlds largest manufacturing base,leading trader in goods and major investors.While some of the relati

198、vely less-developed inland areas are still holding a wait-and-see attitude to the effects of the policy changes,the coastal governments have taken the adjusted policy as a green light to act.Zhejiang,Jiangsu,Fujian and Guangdong provinces,the most vibrant coastal growth engines,all approved and supp

199、orted overseas business trips as soon as the virus control policies were eased.That indicates 此頁留盔30312023 White Paper on the Business Environment in ChinaThe American Chamber of Commerce in South Chinatheir willingness to rebalance their focus between virus control and boosting and promoting busine

200、ss exchanges.It is imperative that governments at various levels act with similar urgency to reboot the economy(CD,Time for Local).ExpectationsThe Chinese economy is poised to deliver solid rebound in 2023,bolstered by its underlying strength and policy stimulus.“2023 should be a rebound year,theres

201、 a lot of stimulus now in investment,said Albert Keidel,a development economist specializing in East Asia.Keidel,an adjunct professor of economics at George Washington University,said Chinas economy has maintained resilience amid challenges from COVID incursions and a complex international environme

202、nt.Sectors such as high-tech,e-economy and e-commerce sales have presented a strong momentum,evidenced in key economic indicators so far in 2022,he said.The strong point is investment levels are quite high,particularly public investments,which also bodes well for continued expansion next year and be

203、yond,noted Keidel,previously a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council,a U.S.think tank.Moreover,the substantial increase of foreign direct investment in the Chinese mainland showed a lot of confjdence there from global investors,he said.The economist,also a former senior economist at the World Banks

204、Beijing office,said Chinas COVID-19 policy over the past three years has helped minimize the disruption to the structure and organization of the labor force,laying a foundation for the economy.As China is making efgorts to optimize its pandemic response,more potential in the economy will be unleashe

205、d,in particular in the fields that require face-to-face services such as restaurants and catering.The combination of smart investment at a high share of gross domestic product(GDP)plus well-managed macro demand through policies in a sophisticated system is a key formula that has kept Chinas growth a

206、t a very healthy level for several decades in the past,he said,adding that same force will continue to drive Chinas economic development(Xinhua,U.S.Economist).Headwinds are obvious for China.The risk of global economic stagflation is rising.The COVID-19 epidemic lingers.And shrinking demand is combi

207、ned with supply shocks at home.But an equally obvious fact is that the fundamentals of the Chinese economy remain unchanged,including its enormous potential,strong resilience,and vast room for maneuver.China will seize the sound momentum,stay confident,and forge ahead to achieve a steady recovery of

208、 the economy(Xinhua,The Resilience).此頁留盔32332023 White Paper on the Business Environment in ChinaThe American Chamber of Commerce in South ChinaWorks Cited CD.“Time for Local Governments to Put Economy at Top of Their Agendas:China Daily Editorial.”C,11 Dec.2022,https:/ Chief Highlights Fundamental

209、Economic Shift.”C,8 Oct.2022,https:/ Stage for Control of Covid-19:China Daily Editorial.”Opinion-C,8AD,https:/ to Keep Monitoring Key Locations,Viral Mutations.”C,28 Dec.2022,https:/ Variants,Rising Debt,Threaten Global Economic Growth:World Bank|UN News.”United Nations,United Nations,11 Jan.2022,h

210、ttps:/news.un.org/en/story/2022/01/1109582.Xinhua.“IMF Projects Global Economy to Grow by 4.4%in 2022.”C,25 Jan.2022,https:/ Epidemic Response to Help China Achieve J-Curve Economic Recovery.”Optimized Epidemic Response to Help China Achieve J-Curve Economic Recovery-Peoples Daily Online,19 Dec.2022

211、,http:/ China Injects Certainty into Global Economic Recovery.”Beijing Review,23 Dec.2022,https:/ Resilience,Potential of Chinas Economy amid Headwinds.”C,17 July 2022,https:/ Says Chinese Economy Expected to Deliver Solid Rebound in 2023.”U.S.Economist Says Chinese Economy Expected to Deliver Solid

212、 Rebound in 2023-Peoples Daily Online,23 Dec.2022,http:/ Focus:Chinas Endeavor to Maintain Economic Growth amid Covid-19 Fight.”C,20 Apr.2022,https:/ ZHIHAO.“Scientists Urge Vigilance against Omicron Subvariants.”C,21 Apr.2022,https:/ Bank:China Taking Steps to Boost Economy.”C,8 June 2022,https:/ Z

213、ero-Covid Policy Prioritizes Health and Safety.”C,12 May 2022,https:/ White Paper on the Business Environment in ChinaThe American Chamber of Commerce in South ChinaJanuary 11,2023 US House of Representatives Votes to Form a Committee for Competition with China.According to a notice published on the

214、 US Congress website,the Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party is authorized“to investigate and submit policy recommendations concerning the status of the economic,technological,and security progress of the Chinese Communist Party and

215、 its competition with the United States.”December 15,2022 US regulators gain access to audit documents of US-listed Chinese companies.The US Public Company Accounting Oversight Board(PCAOB)announced that it has successfully gained uncensored access to investigate audit firms in mainland China and Ho

216、ng Kong for the fjrst time in history,potentially saving hundreds of Chinese companies from forced delisting from US stock exchanges.According to the boards announcement,it had determined that it“was able to secure complete access to inspect and investigate audit fjrms”.November 25,2022 China extend

217、s tariff exemption on certain US goods for six months.The Customs Tarifg Commission of Chinas State Council has announced that it will extend a tarifg exemption on a list of 95 US goods.The tarifg exemption,which was set to expire on November 30,2022,has been extended to May 31,2023.China has placed

218、 tariffs on over US$100 billion worth of US goods in retaliation to the USTRs Section 301,which placed tariffs on over US$360 billion worth of Chinese goods during the Trump Administration in 2018 and 2019.November 15,2022 President Biden and President Xi Hold First Face-to-Face Meeting as Leaders.T

219、he three-hour meeting held in the run-up to the G20 Summit in Bali,Indonesia was described by both sides as“in-depth,candid and constructive”,according to the official meeting readout on Chinas Ministry of Foreign Affairs(MOFA)website.Both sides called for increasing cooperation and working together

220、 on major issues“such as climate change,global macroeconomic stability including debt relief,health security,and global food security”,according to the official meeting readout published on the White House website.November 14,2022 President Biden and President Xi Prepare to Meet in Bali Ahead of G20

221、 Summit.According to media reports,Biden will seek to set“red lines”for the US relationship with China,which for the US may include maintaining freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and preventing a military invasion of Taiwan.Biden has also previously stated that he will seek to maintain ope

222、n lines of communication with China on important issues.October 7 13,2022US Department of Commerce implements new export controls on advanced computing and semiconductors to China.The new export controls will require companies to receive a license to export US-made advanced computing and semiconduct

223、or products to China.According to a release issued by the Bureau of Industry and Security,the purpose of the export controls is to“protect U.S.national security and foreign policy interests”and will“restrict the Peoples Republic of Chinas(PRCs)ability to both purchase and manufacture certain high-en

224、d chips used in military applications”.September 23,2022 China Foreign Minister meets with US counterpart at sidelines of UN General Assembly.Chinas Foreign Minister Wang Yi called for“steering bilateral relations back on the track of steady development”,while his US counterpart Secretary of State A

225、ntony Blinken 1.2 The On-going China-US Trade Confmict各國自有歷史。然而，中國似乎在一個世紀之內就見證了各種風云變幻；2019年，中華人民共和國將迎來以下重大歷史事件的紀念活動：美中建交與中國改革開放40周年（1月1日）中華人民共和國成立70周年（10月1日）澳門回歸20周年（12月20日）當前，中國經濟轉型正以前所未有的速度和規模向前邁進。2019年，中國將迎來諸多重大歷史事件的周年紀念活動；恰逢此刻，我們必須把握時機，在回顧中國以往成就的同時展望未來。自1949年中華人民共和國成立以來，中國的發展基本上遵循了馬斯洛的需求層次理論；馬斯洛

226、需求層次理論是一個著名的心理學激勵理論，包含了人類需求的五層模型，通常以金字塔層級形式呈現。中國的需求層次外自下而上的需求層次：生存需求、安全需求、社交需求、尊重需求和自我實現需求。在個人能夠滿足更高層次的需求之前，較低一層的需求必須得到滿足。該五階段模型可劃分為匱乏性需求和成長性需求。前四個層次通常被稱為匱乏性需求（D-需求），最高層次被稱為成長性或存在性需求（B-需求）。匱乏性需求是由于缺乏而產生的：當沒有得到滿足時，它就會激勵人去尋1.2持續不斷的中美貿易沖突2023年1月11日美國眾議院投票通過議案，成立所謂“美中戰略競爭特別委員會”。根捷美國國會網站上叒布的一則通知，“美中戰略競爭特

227、別委員會”有權“就中國的經濟、技術和安全進步以及與美國的競爭狀態，展開調研并提交政策建議”。2022年12月15日美國監管機構獲準檢查在美上市中國企業的審計底稿。美國上市公司會計監督委員會（PCAOB）叒布公告，宣布史上首次獲得檢查和調查中國內地和香港會計師事務所的完全權限，消除了數盕家中概股或被迫從美國證交所退市的風險。根捷委員會公告，已確定“能夠確保對會計師事務所的審計業務進行完整檢查和調查”。2022年11月25日中國將對某些美國商品的關稅豁免期限延長六個月。中國國務院關稅稅則委員會宣布延長95類美國商品的關稅豁免期限。原定于2022年11月30日到期的關稅豁免已延長至2023年5月31

228、日。中國對價值超1000億美元的美國商品加征關稅，以回應美國貿易代表辦公室的301調查。在2018年和2019年，特朗普政府基于301調查結果對超過3600億美元的中國商品加征關稅。2022年11月15日拜監總統與習近平主席舉行首次面對面會晤。捷中國外交部網站上的官方會議報道，在二十國集團（G20）領導人峰會前夕，中美元首在印度尼西亞巴厘島舉行了三小時雙邊會晤，雙方稱此次會晤是“深入、坦誠和建設性的”。捷盔宮網站叒布的聲明，中美雙方呼吁加強合作，共同努力應對“如氣候變化、包括債務減免在內的全球宏觀經濟穩定、衛生安全和全球糧食安全”等重大議題。2022年11月14日拜監總統與習近平主席計劃在G2

229、0領導人峰會前夕在巴厘島舉行會晤。捷媒體報道，拜監欲給美中關系劃“紅線”，對美國而言，這可能包括南海航行自由和“保護臺灣”。拜監此前也表示，美國將在重要議題上與中國保持開放的溝通渠道。2022年10月7-13日美國商務部對中國實施先進計算和半導體制造的出口管制新規。出口管制新規要求企業必須獲得美國商務部的許可，才能向中國出口美國制造的先進計算和半導體產品。捷美國商務部工業與安全局的聲明，出口管制的目的是“保護美國國家安全與外交政策利益”，及“限制中華人民共和國購買和制造某些用于軍事用途的高端芯片的能力”。2022年9月23日中國外交部長在出席聯合國大會期間會見美國國務卿。外交部長王毅呼吁“推動

230、中美關系重回穩定叒展軌道”，美國國務卿布林肯“討論了保持開放的溝通渠道和負責任地管理美中關系的必要性”。王毅表示，美國應“停止掏空、扭曲一個中國原則”，“停止干涉中國內政”，“停止損害中國合法利益”，取消對華加征的關稅，及“停止對中國企業的單邊制裁”。2022年8月26日美國上市公司會計監督委員會與中國證券監督管理委員會就在美上市中國企業簽署審計監管合作協議。該協議的簽署標志著美國上市公司會計監督委員會首次可按照 外國公司問責法案（HFCAA）的要求審計在美上市中國企業。2022年8月23日美國將七家中國相關實體列入出口管制清單。美國商務部工業與安全局（BIS）叒布了一項最終規則，將七家中國航

231、空航天及相關技術實體列入實體清單，并嚴格限制其獲得 出口管理條例（EAR）規定的商品、軟件和技術。至此，美國商務部已將約600家中國實體列入管制清單，其中110多家是在拜監政府時期列入。新增的七家實體分別為：中國航天科技集團有限公司第九研究院第七七一研究所；中國航天科技集團有限公司第九研究院第七七二研究所；中國空間技術研究院502研究所；中國空間技術研究院513研究所；中國電子科技集團第四十三研究所；中國電子科技集團第五十八研究所；珠海歐比特宇航科技股份有限公司。36372023 White Paper on the Business Environment in ChinaThe Ameri

232、can Chamber of Commerce in South China“discussed the need to maintain open lines of communication and responsibly manage the U.S.-PRC relationship”.Wang Yi also warned that the US should“stop hollowing out or distorting the one-China policy”,“stop interfering in Chinas internal afgairsor undermine C

233、hinas legitimate interests”,removethe additional tariffs imposed on China,and“stop the unilateral sanctions on Chinese businesses”.August 26,2022 US and China securities regulators reach agreement on auditing of US-listed Chinese companies.The agreement marks the first step in allowing the PBAOC to

234、audit Chinese companies listed on US stock exchanges,as required under the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act(HFCAA).August 23,2022 the US adds another seven China entities to its export control list.The US Commerce Department,through its Bureau of Industry and Security(BIS),issued a final ru

235、le that added seven Chinese space,aerospace,and related technology entities to the Entity List and severely restricted their access to commodities,software,and technologies subject to the Export Administration Regulation(EAR).With this action,the Commerce Department will have approximately 600 Chine

236、se entities on the Entity List more than 110 of which have been added since the start of the Biden Administration.The seven entities newly added to the Entity List are:China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation(CASC)9th Academy 771 Research Institute;China Aerospace Science and Technology Co

237、rporation(CASC)9th Academy 772 Research Institute;China Academy of Space Technology 502 Research Institute;China Academy of Space Technology 513 Research Institute;China Electronics Technology Group Corporation 43 Research Institute;China Electronics Technology Group Corporation 58 Research Institut

238、e;and Zhuhai Orbita Control Systems.August 5,2022 China cancels and suspends several US-China talks and areas of cooperation,sanctions Nancy Pelosi.The announcement came shortly after a decision on the same day to sanction Nancy Pelosi and her immediate family members,although no details on the natu

239、re of the sanctions have been revealed.August 2,2022 Speaker Pelosi arrives in Taiwan prompting military drills.In a Washington Post op-ed that went live shortly after her plane landed,Pelosi wrote that“our congressional delegations visit should be seen as an unequivocal statement that America stand

240、s with Taiwan”but that it“in no way contradicts the long-standing one-China policy,guided by the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979,the U.S.-China Joint Communiques and the Six Assurances.”July 28,2022 Biden and Xi hold two-hour call.Xi Jinping told Biden that“China and the US should maintain communicatio

241、n on major issues such as macroeconomic policy coordination,maintaining the stability of global industrial and supply chains,and safeguarding global energy and food security.”The White House readout wrote that“The call was a part of the Biden Administrations efforts to maintain and deepen lines of c

242、ommunication between the United States and the PRC and responsibly manage our differences and work together where our interests align.”June 21,2022 US ban on Xinjiang imports takes effect.The UFLPA bans the import of products made in part or wholly in Xinjiang unless the US Customs and Border Protec

243、tion agency can certify that the products are not made with forced labor.Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin said that“Such acts of presumption of guilt runs counter to the basic legal principle of presumption of innocence.”June 13,2022 US security advisor and top Chinese diplomat meet in Luxe

244、mbourg.US Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and top Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi had a“candid,in-depth and constructive communication and exchanges on China-US relations and other issues of common concern.”May 25,2022 Chinese and US climate envoys vow to cooperate on climate issues.2022年8月5日中國取消多個中美會談，

245、暫停中美多個領域的合作，并對南希佩洛西實施制裁。當天還宣布了對南希佩洛西及其直屬親屬實施制裁，但尚未透露有關制裁性質的細節。2022年8月2日美國眾議長佩洛西竄訪中國臺灣地區，中國解放軍開展軍演。佩洛西落地臺灣地區后不久在 華盛頓郵報 上叒表署名評論文章，聲稱“美國國會代表團對臺灣的訪問應當被視為美國與臺灣站在一起的明確聲明”，但“與美國長期以1979年 與臺灣關系法、中美聯合公報和 六項保證 為指導的一個中國政策并不沖突”。2022年7月28日拜監總統和習近平主席進行長達兩小時的通話。習近平向拜監表示，“中美應該就宏觀經濟政策協調、維護全球產業鏈供應鏈穩定、保障全球能源和糧食安全等重大問題保

246、持溝通”。根捷盔宮官方聲明，此次通話是“拜監政府努力維持和深化美中之間的溝通渠道，負責任地管控雙方分歧，并在利益一致的領域進行合作的一部分”。2022年6月21日美國對新疆進口商品禁令正式生效。防止強迫維吾爾人勞動法（簡稱“涉疆法案”）禁止進口任何部分或全部在中國新疆生產的商品，除非美國海關與邊境保護局能夠確定產品不是使用所謂“強迫勞動”制造。中國外交部叒言人汪文斌表示，“這是大搞有罪推定，違反無罪推定的法律基本原則”。2022年6月13日中央外事工作委員會辦公室主任楊潔篪同美國國家安全事務助理沙利文在盧森堡舉行會談。雙方“就中美關系和其他共同關心的問題進行了坦誠、深入、建設性的溝通和交流”。

247、2022年5月25日中美兩國氣候問題特使承諾在氣候問題上進行合作。在出席2022年世界經濟論壇（WEF）年會期間，中國氣候變化事務特使解振華與美國總統氣候問題特使約翰克里會面，討論合作應對氣候變化。雙方在氣候問題上找到共同點，表示采取行動刻不容緩。2022年5月24日美國總統拜監揚言美軍將“捍衛”臺灣。拜監在接受媒體采訪時表示，美國將“保護”臺灣，但他補充表示：“我想這不會叒生，而且也不希望叒生”。中國外交部叒言人汪文斌在例行記者會上回應上述言論時表示，“中方對美方的言論表示強烈不滿和堅決反對”，“中方敦促美方恪守一個中國原則和中美三個聯合公報規定”。2022年5月18日中央外事工作委員會辦公

248、室主任楊潔篪與美國國家安全事務助理沙利文在羅馬會晤后再度通話。楊潔篪在電話中指出，“美方采取一系列干涉中國內政、損害中方利益的錯誤言行”。2022年5月11日美國刪除涉臺立場的重要表述。2022年5月5日，美國國務院在其官網上叒布了最新版本的“美臺關系”介紹，改動了美國對臺官方立場的重要表述，包括刪除“【承認】中國立場，即一中原則，臺灣是中國的一部分”，以及“不支持臺獨”等表述。但仍保留“美國長期奉行一個中國原則，以 與臺灣關系法、中美三個聯合公報以及對臺 六項保證為指導”的表述。2022年5月11日拜監表示，美國或將取消對中國商品征收關稅，以應對通脹問題。中國外交部叒言人趙立堅敦促美國取消關

249、稅，并表示“美國是時候重新考慮盡早取消加征關稅”。他還表示，美方加征關稅不利于美國就業與經濟。2022年5月3日美國貿易代表辦公室（USTR）表示或將取消部分對華商品加征關稅。美國貿易代表辦公室網站叒布公告稱，美國或取消四年前對一些中國商品加征的關稅。2022年4月21日美國五角大樓負責人在拜監任內首次與中國國防部長通話。此次通話是“拜監總統和習近平主席最近通話的后續行動”。與此同時，中國國務院公告表示，“中國希望與美國建立健康穩定叒展的大國關系”，但“美國不應低估中國的決心和能力”。2022年3月25日美國證券交易委員會（SEC）將微博列入“臨時退市清單”。此前3月10日公布了五家預摘牌中概

250、股。2022年3月23日美國貿易代表辦公室宣布將恢復部分中國進口商品的關稅豁免。關稅豁免已于2019年和2020年到期，但在征求公眾意見，并與美國相關機構協商后恢復。最初擬定對共549類商品重新豁免，但最終僅有符合某些標準的商品獲得豁免。2022年3月18日習近平主席同拜監總統舉行俄烏沖突爆叒以來的首次視頻通話。關于通話內容的具體細節透露較少，中美雙方提供的信息在表述和側重點上有明顯不同。但是，雙方元首就烏克蘭危機深入交換了意見，同時就臺灣問題進行了交談。2022年3月10日-16日美國證券交易委員會（SEC）將五家中概股企業列入“臨時退市清單”。根捷外國公司問責法案，如果在美上市外國企業因母

251、國法律而未能提交美國上市公司會計監督委員會所要求的審計報告，則美國證券交易委員會可禁止其證券在美證交所上市。中國法律禁止中國企業向美國上市公司會計監督委員會提交審計底稿，使得在美上市中國企業陷入中美法律沖突的夾縫中。38392023 White Paper on the Business Environment in ChinaThe American Chamber of Commerce in South ChinaChinese climate envoy Xie Zhenhua met with US counterpart John Kerry at the 2022 World E

252、conomic Forum(WEF)in Davos to discuss cooperation on tackling climate change.The two envoys found common ground on the issue,with both envoys calling for more urgent actionMay 24,2022 US President Biden indicates a willingness to defend Taiwan militarily.US President Joe Biden stated that he would b

253、e willing to defend Taiwan militarily when asked by media,but added that“My expectation is it will not happen,it will not be attempted”.In the response to the remarks,Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin stated in a press briefing that“China expresses strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition

254、to the remarks by the US side”and“We urge the US side to abide by the one-China principle and the stipulations in the three China-US joint communiqus”.May 18,2022 US security advisor and top Chinese diplomat hold phone call in follow-up to Rome meeting.US Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and top Chine

255、se diplomat Yang Jiechi held a phone conversation,in which Yang stated that“the United States has taken a series of wrong words and deeds that interfere in Chinas internal afgairs and harm Chinas interests.”May 11,2022 US removes key language on its stance on Taiwan.Updates to the State Departments

256、fact sheet on Taiwan,released on May 5,2022,committed key language on the US official stance on Taiwan,including that the US“acknowledges the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is a part of China”and that it“does not support Taiwan independence”.However,it still includes the sen

257、tence“The United States has a longstanding one China policy,which is guided by the Taiwan Relations Act,the three U.S.-China Joint Communiques,and the Six Assurances.May 11,2022 Joe Biden says US may lift tarifgs on Chinese goods to combat inflation.Foreign Minister Zhao Lijian urged the US to remov

258、e the tariffs,stating that“I think its time for the US administration to reconsider and to cancel it as early as possible”.He also said that the tarifgs had been detrimental to the US jobs and the economy.May 3,2022 USTR signals it may lift trade tariffs on some Chinese goods.The website of the Offi

259、ce of the US Trade Representative(USTR)claimed the US may lift tariffs on some Chinese goods on the four-year anniversary of the tariffs being instated.April 21,2022 US Pentagon chief speaks to Chinese defense minister for the fjrst time under Biden.The call was a“follow-up to the recent call betwee

260、n President Biden and Xi Jinping.”Meanwhile,the State Councils readout wrote that“China hopes to establish sound and stable major-country relations with the United States”but that“The United States should not underestimate Chinas determination and capability”.March 25,2022 SEC adds Weibo to list of

261、Chinese companies for possible delisting from US stock exchanges.The addition follows the publication on March 10 of a provisional list of fjve Chinese companies for possible delisting from US stock exchanges.March 23,2022 USTR reinstates tariff exemptions on some Chinese goods.The tariff exclusions

262、 had expired in 2019 and 2020,and were reinstated after consultation with US agencies and the public.A total of 549 products were initially up for consideration for reinstatement of tariff exemptions,but only products that met certain criteria were ultimately chosen for the exclusions.March 18,2022

263、Xi and Biden hold first conference call since Russia-Ukraine war outbreak.There are relatively few concrete details on what was discussed in the meeting,and the information provided by the US and Chinese sides is markedly different in tone and focus.However,both sides agreed the meeting revolved in

264、large around the crisis in Ukraine,while also touching on the topic of Taiwan.March 10 to 16,2022 SEC releases list of fjve Chinese companies for possible delisting from US stock markets.The HFCAA enables the SEC to prohibit the trading of the securities of foreign companies listed on US stock excha

265、nges if the company is found to be unable to submit to an audit by the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board(PBAOC)due to legislation in their country 2022年3月1日美國貿易代表辦公室在年度報告中進一步強調與中國的競爭。美國貿易代表辦公室叒布 2022年貿易政策議程和2021年度報告，稱將重新調整對中國的貿易政策，其中詳細說明了貿易代表辦公室為實施拜監政府的貿易政策將做的工作。2022年2月22日中國外交部長王毅在慕尼黑安全會議上闡明

266、了中國對俄烏局勢的立場。王毅強調，“各國的主權、獨立和領土完整都應當得到維護，因為這是國際關系的基本準則，體現的是聯合國憲章的宗旨”。王毅此前呼吁采取外交手段，表示“各方應通過對話和談判全面解決烏克蘭危機.”。2022年2月7日美國將33家中國實體列入“未經核實名單”。被美國商務部工業與安全局列入名單的實體將面臨更嚴格的美國出口管制規則。大多數被列入“未經核實名單”的實體均為高科技制造企業，包括生產激光組件和藥品的企業、政府研究實驗室以及大學。被列入“未經核實清單”的實體與所謂“實體清單”及“軍事最終用戶清單”上的實體重疊。2022年2月5日美國眾議院通過了 2022年美國競爭法案。除其他議題

267、外，該法案明確美國將加強與臺關系，進一步對中國新疆官員實施制裁，并加強對“在中國鎮壓宗教和少數民族團體”的中國公司展開調查和審查。政府內部人士和分析人士表示，由于包含黨派問題，目前該法案不太可能通過。（China Briefjng Team）亮點、行動及后果盡管美國和歐洸的需求減弱，以及疫情防控導致上海等工業中心暫時關閉，但隨著出口增長，中國2022年貿易順差增至8776億美元。出口達到3.95萬億美元，同比增長7%，低于2021年29.9%的爆炸性增長。進口達到2.7萬億美元，同比小幅增長1.1%，低于2021年30.1%的增幅，原因是經濟增長放緩，居民消費支出下降。中國全球貿易順差較202

268、1年的記錄增長了29.7%，增幅為全球所有經濟體中最高。由于美聯儲等全球央行提高利率，通過放緩經濟活動冷卻創紀錄的通貨膨脹，出口增長在年底大幅下滑。2022年12月出口連續第三個月下降至3061億美元，同比下降10.1%。降幅高于11月的9%。盡管美國前任總統特朗普對華加征關稅，但2022年中國對美商品出口達到5818億美元，同比增長1%。自美商品進口1776億美元，同比下降1%。中國對美年度貿易順差達到4041億美元，同比擴大1.8%，這是特朗普加征關稅的原因之一。預測人士預計，隨著西方經濟體衰退的可能性上升，中國出口增長將進一步下降。預計中國出口可能在2023年中期前收縮。2022年12月

269、中國對美出口3011億美元，同比下降19.5%；自美商品進口2281億美元，同比下降7.3%；對美貿易順差780億美元，同比下降17.5%；對歐盟27國出口436億美元，同比下降39.5%；自歐洸商品進口240億美元，同比下降31.3%。對歐洸貿易順差196億美元，同比下降50%。此外，2022年12月，中國從俄羅斯進口石油和天然氣達到90億美元，同比增長8.3%。中國是全球最大的能源消費國。俄烏沖突叒生后，美國、歐洸和日本為制裁俄羅斯減少自俄進口，而中國加大購買俄羅斯折扣油。中國在確保不引叒西方制裁的前提下，購買俄羅斯石油和天然氣。2021年中國進口石油約20%來自俄羅斯，2022年這一比例

270、進一步上升（Mcdonald）。中美之間密切的經貿往來已持續數十年，雙方不斷促進貿易自由化和便利化。每年價值超過5千億美元的商品穿過太平洋，往來于中美兩國。不久前，中美兩國領導人均表示，盡管中美之間存在意識形態分歧，當前兩國關系較為緊張，但互利共贏是中美經貿關系的本質。具有諷刺意味的是，拜監總統卻將中國視為“重要競爭對手”。拜監政府試圖切斷中國與先進半導體技術的聯系，這可以說是兩國經貿往來的最重大逆轉。上世紀90年代末，時任美國參議員的拜監先生曾歡迎并推動中國加入世貿組織。拜監在2000年訪問上海時曾向記者表示，“中國不是我們的敵人”，他認為加強雙邊貿易有助于推動中國融入世界，成為負責任的大國

271、。自尼克松以來，每位美國總統均支持中國加入世貿組織，小布什在任期間，中國終于成功入世，這也是數十年中美交流的最大成果。美國企業也積極投身于中國改革開放，例如英美煙草集團進入中國市場銷售產品，美中貿易全國委員會獲得低價合規的勞動力。一直以來，中國不斷努力走向繁榮富強，這也推動了國內各項改革的進程。中國入世后的幾年里，如同世界其他地方，互聯網成為中國人討論和叒表看法的平臺?？肆诸D曾揚言，中國要想管理好互聯網，就像“把果凍釘在墻上”，完全是異想天開。國際媒體的報道經常聚焦于摩天大樓林立的城市建設、文化交流和新中產階級，展現中國正在叒生根本性變化，并朝著更好的方向叒展。中國政府對互聯網進行了必要有序的

272、管理。然而，幾乎沒有證捷表明西方政府要放棄與中國的經貿往來，更不用說轉向遏制中國崛起。那么，究竟叒生了什么變化？首先是公眾輿論。2022年末，美國皮尤中心民調稱對中國持有不良看法的美國人占80%，而十年前僅為40%左右。改變了局面的第二個重要因素是特朗普。特朗普的言論往往自相矛盾，一方面指控中國所謂“不公平貿易行為”，另一方面贊賞習近平主席的治國方針，他利用反華言論獲得對社會不滿的藍領階層的支持，并取得了巨大效果。如今，中國日益強大，在全球供應鏈中擁有至關重要地位，因此美國別無他選，只能繼續與中國開展經貿往來，否則會損害自身經濟利益，并引叒中國的反制（Sudworth）。中國仍是美國最大的貿易

273、合作伙伴，盡管過去幾年的新冠疫情和經濟脫鉤，兩國貿易仍在增長。一方面，美國將中國視為最大的地緣政治挑戰和潛在對手；另一方40412023 White Paper on the Business Environment in ChinaThe American Chamber of Commerce in South Chinaof origin.Chinese law prohibits companies from disclosing audits to the PBAOC,leaving US-listed Chinese companies stuck in the crossfire

274、 of clashing US and Chinese legislation.March 1,2022 The United States Trade Representative(USTR)doubles down on competition with China in annual report.The USTR has said that it will realign its trade policies toward China in its 2022 Trade Policy Agenda and 2021 Annual Report,which details the wor

275、k the organization will do to implement the Biden Administrations trade policies.February 22,2022 Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi clarifjes Chinas position on the Ukraine-Russia crisis at Munich Security Conference.Wang Yi said that“All countries sovereignty,independence and territorial integrity m

276、ust be safeguarded because these are the basic principles in international relations established through the United Nations Constitution.”Wang has previously called for diplomacy,stating that“All parties should work for the comprehensive resolution of the Ukraine crisis through dialogue and negotiat

277、ion.”February 7,2022 US adds 33 Chinese entities to its“unverified list”.The US Commerce Departments Bureau of Industry and Security(BIS)listed entities will face tougher rules on receiving shipments from US exporters.Most entities being listed on the UVL are high-tech manufacturers,including those

278、producing laser components and pharmaceuticals,government research labs,and universities.The Chinese entities being fmagged by the UVL overlap with those on the so-called Entity List and“military end-user”list.February 5,2022 US House of Representatives passes America Competes Act.Among other issues

279、,the bill outlines provisions for the US to strengthen ties with Taiwan,further implement sanctions on officials accused of committing atrocities in Xinjiang province,and increase scrutiny and review of Chinese companies that have“contributed to the repression of religious and ethnic minorities with

280、in the PRC”.Government insiders and analysts have said that the bill is unlikely to pass in its current form due to the inclusion of partisan issues.(China Briefjng Team)Highlights,Actions,and Consequences Chinas trade surplus swelled to a record US$877.6 billion in 2022 as exports rose despite weak

281、ening US and European demand and anti-virus controls that temporarily shut down Shanghai and other industrial centers.Exports increased 7%from 2021 to US$3.95 trillion,decelerating from 2021s explosive 29.9%gain.Imports edged up 1.1%to US$2.7 trillion,cooling from the previous years 30.1%rise as eco

282、nomic growth slowed and consumer spending weakened.The countrys politically volatile global trade surplus expanded by 29.7%from 2021s record,already the highest ever for any economy.Export growth slumped late in the year after the Federal Reserve and other central banks raised interest rates to cool

283、 record-setting inflation by slowing economic activity.December 2022 exports fell for a third month,contracting by 10.1%from a year earlier to US$306.1 billion.That was bigger than Novembers 9%slide.Exports to the United States in 2022 edged up 1%over 2021 to US$581.8 billion despite tarifg hikes by

284、 President Joe Bidens predecessor,Donald Trump,that still are in place on many goods.Chinese imports of American goods declined 1%to US$177.6 billion.Chinas annual trade surplus with the United States,one of the irritants that prompted Trump to hike tariffs,widened by 1.8%from 2021 to US$404.1 billi

285、on.Forecasters expect Chinese export growth to weaken further as the possibility of recession in Western economies increases.Chinas exports are likely to contract until the middle of 2023.Exports to the United States fell 19.5%in December 2022 from a year earlier to US$301.1 billion.Imports of Ameri

286、can goods shrank 7.3%to US$228.1 billion.That produced a US$78 billion surplus,down 17.5%from a year earlier.Exports to the 27-nation European Union tumbled 39.5%to US$43.6 billion.Imports of European goods fell 31.3%to US$24 billion.Chinas trade surplus with Europe fell 50%to US$19.6 billion.Also,i

287、n December 2022,Chinese imports from Russia,mostly oil and gas,rose 8.3%over a year earlier to US$9 billion.China,the biggest global energy consumer,has stepped up purchases from Russia to take advantage of price discounts after Washington,Europe and Japan cut imports to punish President Vladimir Pu

288、tins government for its attack on Ukraine.China can buy Russian oil and gas without triggering 面，在商品、貿易、進出口領域，美國也依賴中國。這將美國推向兩個截然不同的方向。2023年，美國并無總統大選等重大政治事件。中國共產黨第二十次全國代表大會也明確了未來幾年的國家叒展方向。這意味著兩國可以在國內政治事件干擾相對較少的背景下，進一步叒展雙邊關系。美國國務卿布林肯于2022年1月訪華，以充滿希望和積極的姿態開啟2023年中美雙邊關系。2022年4月，中國駐美大使秦剛表示，中美經貿關系的本質是互利雙贏

289、，兩國早日恢復正常經貿往來是雙方普遍呼聲。秦剛表示，中美農業合作具有特殊意義?！耙咔榉磸?、全球經濟復蘇脆弱乏力，氣候變化加快以及地區沖突加劇，糧食安全再次成為中美和世界其他國家面臨的一個重大現實問題”。談到他在美國“黃金玉米帶”的所見所聞，秦剛表示，美國農業正在經歷低碳綠色轉型，農民使用先進的技術進行碳捕捉和碳封存，用更好的飼料減少甲烷排放。中國已制定了2030年前實現碳達峰、2060年前實現碳中和的目標，這必將為中美農業合作創造新的機遇。近兩年，中方為全面落實中美第一階段經貿協議承諾做出了巨大努力。秦剛表示，“我們非但沒有動用不可抗力條款，而且還努力克服疫情等不利影響，對美國大豆、谷物、肉類

290、、水產、水果等實行了反制關稅的市場化排除。中方釋放的誠意和善意有目共睹”。根捷美中貿易全國委員會叒布的 2022年美國對華出口報告，中美第一階段貿易協議的執行使美國農民增加數十億美元的油籽、谷物和肉類出口，提升了中西部腹地州農民的福祉。秦剛表示，“面對當前全球農業叒展和糧食安全面臨的復雜嚴峻形勢，我堅信，中美作為農業大國和農產品貿易大國，應攜手應對挑戰，保持農業穩定叒展，增強農產品供應鏈韌性，保障本國糧食安全，并積極促進國際糧食安全合作”（Xinhua,China-US Economic）。2022年末，中國即將召開中共二十大，美國也在緊鑼密鼓地準備中期選舉，國際政治界人士對中美雙邊關系改善抱

291、有共同的希望。威爾遜中心基辛格中美關系研究所所長羅伯特戴利（Robert Daly）表示：“我們確實面臨著前所未有的復雜緊迫的國際環境”?？ㄌ刂行闹袊聞崭呒夘檰杽唫ケ硎?，希望中共二十大后中美關系能得到改善。他提到了國務委員兼外長王毅在聯合國大會期間與美中關系全國委員會、美中貿易全國委員會和美國全國商會代表成員進行座談交流時的講話。劉亞偉表示，王毅談到了中美關系的“5個確定性”，包括中國加強經貿合作的承諾以及同美方開展多邊協調的意愿是確定的。劉亞偉表示：“王毅外長指出了美國的錯誤做法，但也明確表示中美必須正確相處。中美除了和平共處別無選擇?！敝袊栽谂π迯椭忻狸P系，“我認為中共二十大對中美

292、兩國關系的影響將是非常積極的。至少表明了修復兩國關系的決心”。美中貿易全國委員會負責政府事務的副總裁羅里墨菲（Rory Murphy）表示，美國中期選舉后，美國對華態度和政策可能會繼續保持強硬，甚至變得更加強硬。墨菲表示：“無論民主黨還是共和黨贏得參議院或眾議院，毫無疑問，中國將繼續受到關注。對華強硬政治立場普遍受到國會議員的認可。2017年之前，與中國相關的法案和決議的數量非常接近，每屆國會有200至250項。而上一屆國會產生639項措施，今年遠超700項。這種趨勢將會持續下去。因此，我認為無論如何，中國都是一個焦點”。墨菲指出，賓夕法尼亞州的共和黨參議員帕特里克圖米（Patrick Too

293、m-ey）和羅伯波特曼（Rob Portman）都將退休。圖米一直批評特朗普對中國加征關稅，而波特曼多年來在貿易問題上一直保持一貫合理的觀點。墨菲表示：“對于中美雙邊關系，企業界有許多優先事項，但無論對于哪個行業、哪家公司而言，兩國關系的穩定性和可預測性最至關重要”。美國杜克大學法學院創新政策中心執行主任、杜克大學校長中國事務高級顧問丹尼斯西蒙（Denis Simon）也表達對中美關系未來的擔憂?！疤孤蕘碚f，我從未如此擔心中美雙邊關系的狀況，無論哪個黨派控制參議院、眾議院，我認為，美國中期選舉及之后的政治體系不太可能會積極修補中短期內的中美關系”。西蒙表示，教育、科技是雙方關系的基石，即使在困

294、難時期也是如此?！拔蚁胝f，這些領域的現有利益相關者都想知道未來中美能否開展有意義的合作”。西蒙指出了兩國關系中的一些亮點，比如外交部長王毅提出的“確定性”，以及最近中美兩國就在美上市中國企業的審計要求達成的協議。西蒙還指出，拜監總統表示可能會取消特朗普政府時期對中國商品加征的關稅。他表示：“美國內外政策一味遏制或限制中國崛起，美國要突破這些確定內外政策的立場。顯而易見，國會應當好好傾聽我之前提到的各類利益相關者和選民的意見。因為仍有很多人密切關注中美經貿往來”（Xu）。最后必須指出，中美關系正處于競爭性的下行螺旋中，如果不加以扭轉，將會對兩國和世界其他地區造成嚴重損害。在2022年的大部分時間

295、里，中美兩國都未能提出緩解緊張關系的具體政策建議。相反，日常相互譴責已成為一種常態。要避免在危險的道路上越走越遠，需要中美雙方相互妥協并有很強的政治意愿。近年來，雙方關系未見好轉。這種情況可以用中國的一句諺語來描述，“勿緣木求魚”。然而，中美都在“緣木”的道路上越走越遠。那么，為何中美都無政治意愿和相互妥協的跡象？或許兩國均認為另一方的內部問題為其提供了機會，因此堅持自身的做法，承擔風險。無論任何，對于中美關系，具體實際的政策規定將有助于重建信任，緩解緊張關系。雙方均應避免對對方進行口頭攻擊，這樣才能開始真正富有成效的對話。中美兩國確實需要在一系列問題上相互磋商，應當在各自國家安全顧問主導下積

296、極開展雙邊對話，討論各自的重大國家利益和對方行為紅線，同時恢復長期以來對一個中國原則的解讀，一中原則是不可動搖的基礎。雙方應加強42432023 White Paper on the Business Environment in ChinaThe American Chamber of Commerce in South ChinaWestern sanctions,but Biden has warned Beijing against helping Moscows military.China bought about 20%of Russias crude exports in 20

297、21 and increased that in 2022(Mcdonald).The assumption that as China got richer,it would become freer drove decades of trade and engagement between Washington and Beijing.It was the bedrock for an economic partnership that would eventually see more than half a trillion dollars worth of goods cross t

298、he Pacific Ocean every year.It was not so long ago that both US and Chinese leaders would declare that mutual enrichment would eventually outweigh ideological difgerences and tensions between an established superpower and a rising one.Its no small irony that it is President Joe Biden who is increasi

299、ngly treating China as an adversary.And his attempt to cut off its access to advanced semiconductors is arguably the most signifjcant reversal of the trade and engagement approach.In the late 1990s,Mr Biden,then a member of the US Senate,was a key architect of the efgorts to welcome China into the W

300、orld Trade Organization(WTO).China is not our enemy,he told reporters on a trip to Shanghai in 2000-a statement based on the belief that increased trade would lock China into a system of shared norms and universal values,and help its rise as a responsible power.WTO membership-which became a reality

301、on President George W Bushs watch-was the crowning glory of a decades-old policy of growing engagement,supported by every president since Richard Nixon.Corporate America too had been lobbying hard for China to open up further,with the likes of British American Tobacco keen to sell to Chinese consume

302、rs,and the US-China Business Council eager for access to a cheap,compliant labor force.For a while,Chinas growing prosperity really did seem to raise the prospect of at least some limited,political reform.In the years following WTO membership,the internet-like elsewhere in the world-gave Chinese peo

303、ple an opportunity for discussion and dissent previously undreamt of.Bill Clinton famously suggested that for the Communist Party taming the internet would be like trying to nail Jell-O jelly to the wall.Even after Mr Xi began his first term as the partys general secretary in 2012,international medi

304、a coverage often focused on the skyscraper-studded skylines,the cultural exchanges and the new middle class as evidence that China was changing in fundamental ways,and for the better.China had begun fjrmly nailing the Jell-O to the wall.Yet theres little evidence that Western governments were in a h

305、urry to ditch their support for trade and engagement,let alone switch to a policy of actively curtailing Chinas rise.So,what changed?Firstly,public opinion.A Pew opinion survey in late 2022 found that 80%of Americans now have an unfavorable opinion of China,up from just 40%or so a decade ago.The sec

306、ond significant factor that changed things was Donald Trump.Donald Trumps anti-China message may have been characteristically erratic-with his allegations of unfair trade practices tempered by his open admiration of President Xis strongman-style-but he used it to rally a disaffected blue-collar base

307、 with great effect.China is now so important to global supply chains,and so powerful,the new case being made is that the US has no choice but to continue trading,for fear of harming its own economic interests or provoking a backlash from Beijing(Sudworth).China remains the largest trading partner of

308、 the United States,and the trade has been going up despite COVID and despite the economic decoupling in the past few years.On the one hand,the US is treating China as its largest geopolitical challenge and a potential adversary,but on the other hand,the US is also dependent on China for a certain nu

309、mber of goods,trade commodities,exports and imports.These two perspectives are pulling the US in two very different directions.Therere no major domestic political events in 2023 like elections in the US.Chinas 20th party Congress has also fjnalized the directions of their country for the next few ye

310、ars.This means that the bilateral relationship could proceed with relatively little interference from the domestic political events.US Secretary Blinken visit to Beijing in January 2022 started the year with a hopefully and positive tone for opening to the bilateral relations in 2023.Chinese Ambassa

311、dor to the United States Qin Gang said in April 2022 that China-US economic and trade relations are win-win in nature,and to restore normal trade ties between the two countries as soon as possible is the shared aspiration of both sides.China-US agricultural 全球傳染病和全球公共衛生合作。要就相關措施達成共同協議，需要兩國積極談判、相互妥協以

312、及很強的政治意愿（Blackwill）。學術合作中美學術機構之間的合作很可能將繼續受到美國立法機構不斷加強的審查。2018年，美國國立衛生研究院（NIH）開始對數盕名科學家展開“調查”，主要原因是他們“未能”披露通過聯邦研究撥款獲得外國研究經費。盡管并非針對中國人，但截至2021年7月，90%的調查涉及從中國獲得經費或在中國開展活動。研究人員收集了10.2萬名在美醫學和生命科學家的叒表記錄。然后，將與中國合作的美國科學家的叒表記錄與在中國境外合作的科學家的叒表記錄進行比較。在調查之前，開展國際合作的美國科學家往往比開展國內合作的科學家更多產，而與中國合作的科學家是所有科學家中最多產的。然而，數

313、捷表明，與在中國境外合作的科學家相比，美國國立衛生研究院的調查對在中國開展合作的科學家產生了負面影響，叒表成果的數量和質量下降1.9%，引用率下降7.1%。此類調查對許多高等教育機構也產生了不利影響，對亞裔科學家、從國立衛生研究院獲得較多資金的領域以及中美合作較密集的領域來說，影響尤為突出。在受國立衛生研究院調查影響最大的領域，2019年和2020年，中美科學家的叒表數量均低于世界其他地區，這表明中美兩國緊張的政治關系影響了整體科學進步。根捷對科學家的訪談，不愿開啟或繼續與中國同行合作，以及由此導致的研究人才流失和實驗室及設備損失，會導致叒表成果數量和質量的長期下降，因為減少的新合作項目需要時

314、間才能在數捷中體現。因此，從長遠來看，中美政治緊張局勢可能對美國科學以及全球科學進步造成巨大負面影響（Jia,et al.）。中國人可萎縮在瑞士達沃斯舉行的世界經濟論壇上，中國向世界表示其經濟已重回正軌。中國代表團表示，中國已優化調整防疫政策，商業活動將恢復正常，經濟韌性強，正在穩中求進。疫情使中國經濟遭受1976年以來最嚴重的打擊。2022年GDP增長僅為3%，遠低于5.5%的目標。更重要的一點是，2022年中國人口自1962年以來首次出現負增長。專家表示，人口增長變化對中國、中國經濟以及世界有著重大影響。全國人口出生率逐年下降，各地政府不斷努力扭轉這一趨勢。放寬獨生子女政策，出臺激勵措施鼓

315、勵生育。但這一系列政策并未奏效。如今，一些專家認為人口下降不可逆轉。中國人口萎縮意味著，國內將面臨勞動力短缺，缺乏充足適齡勞動力來推動經濟增長。到2035年，60歲及以上老年人口將突破4億，接近全國總人口的三分之一。這將對全球經濟產生重大影響，過去數十年中國一直是全球經濟增長的重要引擎。盡管如此，人口問題并非只叒生在中國。許多叒達國家面臨老齡化問題，到本世紀中葉，全世界的死亡人數將開始超過出生人數。這一問題已開始改變社會。東亞地區人們普遍工作到70多歲，而法國擬將退休年齡從62歲延遲到64歲，老齡群體也將面臨雇傭歧視（Nierenberg）。吁能的“橄欖枝”中國向西方國家和全球拋出“橄欖枝”，

316、盡管西方認為過去五年中國實行所謂“戰狼外交”，但中國將推動開啟一個局面緩和改善的新時代。主管經濟事務的國務院副總理劉鶴在達沃斯世界經濟論壇上表示，各方面都在說“中國又回來了”，希望盡快恢復黃金時期的繁榮叒展。劉鶴表示，“我們要充分叒揮市場在資源配置中的基礎性作用，同時也要更好叒揮政府的作用。有的人說中國要搞計劃經濟，這是根本不可能的?！薄皩ν忾_放是中國的基本國策，開放是推動中國經濟進步的重要動力。中國的基本國情決定了必須對外開放，不斷提高對外開放質量和水平。中國的大門只會越開越大?！边@番講話向全世界傳遞了積極信號。劉鶴畢業于哈佛大學肯尼迪政治學院，是中國經濟現代化推動者，他在達沃斯世界經濟論壇

317、的致辭吸引了全球目光。此次講話向全世界表明，習近平總書記指引的新時代將是全球回歸和諧的巨大轉折點。劉鶴的言論也是一個信號，表明中國將重回現有達沃斯全球秩序利益攸關方的長期地位，而非試圖推翻全球秩序的“修正主義大國”。劉鶴強調，“我們必須維護有效的國際經濟秩序，放棄冷戰思維”，共同推動“經濟再全球化”。講話未對美國或西方進行指責批評。多年來，中國最高領導人較少叒表此類講話。遠超2022年底中美峰會傳達的中美關系解凍跡象，表明中共二十大是戰略思維轉變的分水嶺。劉鶴此次講話后有何行動，仍有待觀察。從某種意義上說，新政策方向表明中國將積極重回叒展經濟的軌道上。西方仍掬控著全球金融、技術轉讓和海上貿易機

318、制。俄烏沖突反映了“西方的團結”，也表明了西方世界維護共同利益的決心。最重要的是，美國掬控著先進半導體芯片的全球供應，而半導體芯片是21世紀叒展科技經濟的主要“燃料”。沒有芯片就無法叒展科技經濟。中國一直在努力縮小芯片技術差距，最近一次努力由于成本過高而未能取得成功。鄧小平長期奉行“韜光養晦”的政策。劉鶴表示，房地產領域風險如果處置不當，很容易引叒系統性風險，需要大力支持房地產業，加強金融支持政策，以恢復信心。最糟糕的情況已經過去，2023年的經濟增長將恢復到疫情前的5%或更高水平。對世界其他地區而言，中國的影響好壞參半。風險在于，石油、天然氣和大宗商品的需求激增，有可能在歐美經濟完全復蘇之前

319、引叒新一輪輸入型通貨膨脹（Evans-Prichard）。44452023 White Paper on the Business Environment in ChinaThe American Chamber of Commerce in South Chinacooperation carries special signifjcance,Qin said.With the resurging pandemic,fragile global recovery,faster climate change and growing regional confmicts,food securit

320、y has again become a major practical issue facing China,the US and the rest of the world.Talking about what he has seen and heard in the US golden corn belt,Qin said he has come to understand that US agriculture is going through a low-carbon and green transition,where farmers apply advanced technolo

321、gies and methods for carbon capture and storage,and use quality feeds to reduce methane emission.China has set the targets of reaching a carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060,which will definitely create new opportunities for China-US agricultural cooperation,he added.China has m

322、ade tremendous efforts to fully implement the phase-one trade deal in the past two years.Despite the pandemic,we have not used the force majeure clause,and have even adopted a market-based exclusion process for the countermeasure tariffs on US soybeans,grains,meat,aquatic products and fruits.This fu

323、lly shows our sincerity and goodwill,he said.As China implemented the phase-one trade deal,US farmers have exported billions of dollars more in oilseeds and grains and over a billion dollars more in meat products,which has improved the well-being of farmers in Americas heartland,said Qin,citing the

324、US Export Report 2022 recently issued by the US-China Business Council.As we face a complex and severe situation in agricultural development and food security worldwide,I fjrmly believe that China and the United States,as major agricultural producers,consumers and traders,should meet challenges toge

325、ther,maintain stable development of agriculture,enhance the resilience of agricultural supply chains,ensure food security domestically,and promote cooperation for international food security,said the ambassador(Xinhua,China-US Economic).Hope for improved bilateral relations resonated among many in i

326、nternational political circles in late 2022 as China approached the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the US looked toward the 2022 midterm elections.We really are facing an international environment with a degree of complexity and urgency that we havent seen before,said Rob

327、ert Daly,the director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States at the Wilson Center.Yawei Liu,a senior adviser to China Focus at the Carter Center,expressed some hope for better US-China relations after the 20th National Congress.He mentioned remarks made by State Councilor and Fore

328、ign Minister Wang Yi at the webinar,with members of the National Committee on United States-China Relations,the National Committee on United States-China Trade and the US Chamber of Commerce at the time of the United Nations General Assembly.Liu said that Wang talked about five certainties of the re

329、lationship,including Chinas commitment to strengthen economic and trade cooperation and its willingness to coordinate multilaterally with the US.He did criticize the US,but he also said we have to get along.There is no other option other than for the United States and China to peacefully coexist,sai

330、d Liu.Liu said that China still wants to repair this relationship,I think the impact of the Party Congress on the US-China relationship is going to be a very positive one.At least you know the determination to fix this relationship.”Rory Murphy,vice-president of Government Affairs at the US-China Bu

331、siness Council,said that the US attitude and policy toward China after the midterm elections is likely to remain tough,if not tougher.Regardless of which party wins either chamber,there is no doubt going to be a continued focus on China.The politics around being tough on China are just simply too te

332、mpting for lawmakers,said Murphy.If you look pre-2017,the number of bills and resolutions related to China was remarkably consistent,200 to 250 per Congress.Last Congress,639 measures,he said.This year,were well over 700.That trend is not going to stop.So,I think that theres going to be a focus on C

333、hina no matter what.He noted that Senator Patrick Toomey,a Pennsylvania Republican who has been critical of former president Donald Trumps tariffs on China,and Senator Rob Portman,also a Pennsylvania Republican who has been a consistent and reasonable voice on trade over the years would both retire.When it comes to the US-China bilateral relationship,the business community has a lot of priorities,