日本汽車產業動態.pdf

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1、 _ 2024/SOM2/AD/013 Agenda Item:3.7 Japan Auto Industry Update Purpose:Information Submitted by:Japan 39th Automotive Dialogue Arequipa,Peru 9-10 May 2024 Japan Auto Industry UpdateJapan Auto Industry UpdateTakehisa YAMAKAWAJapan Automobile Manufacturers Association(JAMA)The content for todayThe con

2、tent for today1.Trends in production and sales by Japanese automobile manufacturers2.Market trends of clean energy vehicles(BEV,PHEV,and HEV)in Japan3.Update on Japans automobile policies4.JAMAs stance on carbon-neutral fuelsGlobal production by Japanese automobile manufacturers is approximately 26.

3、51 million units,70%of 70%of which are produced overseas.which are produced overseas.Overseas production by Japanese automobile manufacturers has increased approximately sixfoldapproximately sixfold over the past 33 years,significantly contributing to the economy in overseas markets.Meanwhile,domest

4、ic production has decreased by about 30%has decreased by about 30%.RevitalizationRevitalization of the domestic market is a key issue.1 1-1.1.Global automobile production by Japanese automobile manufacturers Global automobile production by Japanese automobile manufacturers(2023 PC+CV)(2023 PC+CV)199

5、0:1990:G Globallobal productionproduction16.75 M16.75 Millionillion U Unitsnits2023:2023:G Globallobal productionproduction26.51 M26.51 Millionillion U UnitsnitsProduction年年海外生産海外生産327萬臺萬臺20國內生産國內生産1,349萬臺萬臺80國內販売向國內販売向755萬臺萬臺45輸出向輸出向593萬臺萬臺35世界生産：世界生産：1,675萬臺萬臺ProductionSalesUnit:Production inJapan

6、Productionoutside ofJapanGlobalProductionFor domesticsalesFor exportOverseassales10thousandunits19901,3483271,6757555932,26820239001,7512,6514474533,1042023-1996-4481,424976-308-14083633 yearslater19901990Global production:16.75 million unitsProduction outside of Japan:3.27 million units20%For domes

7、tic sales7.55 million units45For export5.93 million units35Production in Japan:13.49 million units80%20232023Global production:26.51 million unitsProduction outside of Japan:17.51 million units66%Production in Japan:9 million units34%For domestic sales4.47 million units17For export4.53 million units

8、17Source:Source:JAMAJAMA*For export:Domestic production volume-Domestic sales volume*For domestic sales:Domestic sales volume(excluding sales of imported vehicles)*Overseas sales:Export volume+Overseas production volumeProduction0100200300400500600700800900日本日本中國中國米國米國中南米中南米歐州歐州7.847.84JapanJapan6.0

9、66.06Asia4.484.48China2.822.82USA1.481.48M&S America1.211.21Europe0.670.67Canada0.230.23AfricaMillion units1 1-2.2.Overseas production volume by JapaneseOverseas production volume by Japanese-affiliated affiliated automobile manufacturers(2022 PC+CV)automobile manufacturers(2022 PC+CV)Production in

10、Japan:Approx.7.84 million unitsProduction outside of Japan:Approx.16.96 million units478 1,601 1,765 508 2,475 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,000-500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,50020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023World

11、 MarketJapanU.S.EuropeIndiaChinaChinaChinaU.S.U.S.EuropeEuropeJapanJapan17.0%17.0%increaseincrease12.6%increase12.6%increase13.8%13.8%increaseincrease7.3%increase0.5%0.5%increaseincrease(ten thousand units)(U.S.)including medium and large commercial vehicles (Europe)40 Economies including Russia,Tur

12、key,etc.96.32 million units86.4886.48 million unitsmillion unitsIndiaIndia(Year)Source:aggregated by JAMA based on data by WARDSAUTO,FOURIN,etc.(The data for the world and European markets in 2023 is partly based on an estimate/forecast by FOURIN.)2009:The Chinese market overtook the U.S.market.2006

13、:The Chinese market overtook the Japanese market.2022:The Indian market overtook the Japanese market.Sales in Japan1 1-3.Changes3.Changes of automobile sales volume in Japan of automobile sales volume in Japan PC+CVPC+CV29.4%46.3%5.3%-4.8%-2.1%-32.2%-31.3%-14.4%-11.4%-14.2%-18.0%-16.3%-14.4%-18.1%-1

14、0.3%-7.4%-9.3%24.1%28.6%7.0%2.4%16.0%20.3%11.6%16.7%25.0%19.8%8.5%17.3%10.7%10.7%9.0%5.4%-12.4%-19.2%-21.1%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%対前年同月比Apr.25-Jun.20,2021 COVID-19 state-of-emergency declarationJul.12-Sep.30,2021 COVID-19 state-of-emergency declarationSince around Dec.2020Semiconductor

15、 shortageMar.-May 30,2022Lockdown in Shanghai May 8,2023Change to Category V Infectious DiseasesJan.1,2024Noto earthquakeSales in Japan1 1-4.4.Changes of automobile sales volume in Japan Changes of automobile sales volume in Japan(January(January-March,2024 PC+CV)March,2024 PC+CV)FY20195.04 million

16、units-4.2%FY20204.66 million units-7.6%FY20214.22 million units-8.5%FY20224.39 million units4.0%FY20234.53 million units3.3%Comparison to the same month of the previous yearAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecemberJanuary,2022FebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDe

17、cemberJanuary,2023FebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecemberJanuary,2024FebruaryMarch20242024BEVBEVPHEVPHEVUnitsProportionUnitsProportionEuropeEuropeJan.Jan.-Feb.Feb.20242024252,072252,07212.5%12.5%152,641152,6417.6%7.6%20232,019,40115.7%989,9377.7%ChinaChinaJan.Jan.-Feb.Feb

18、.20242024686,467686,46719.9%19.9%465,113465,11313.5%13.5%20236,258,06624.0%2,789,49510.7%JapanJapanJan.Jan.-Feb.Feb.2024202410,14710,1471.7%1.7%8,0308,0301.4%1.4%2023202388,51288,5122.2%2.2%52,12652,1261.3%1.3%U.S.U.S.Jan.Jan.-Feb.Feb.20242024166,488166,4887.2%7.2%53,98253,9822.3%2.3%20231,115,6337.

19、2%293,5581.9%B BEV and PHEV and PHE EV sales in various economies markets V sales in various economies markets 20242024BEVBEVPHEVPHEVFranceFranceJan.Jan.-Feb.Feb.2024202417.3%17.3%8.4%8.4%202316.8%9.2%GermanyGermanyJan.Jan.-Feb.Feb.2024202411.6%11.6%6.7%6.7%202318.4%6.2%ItalyItalyJan.Jan.-Feb.Feb.20

20、2420242.8%2.8%3.0%3.0%20234.2%4.4%U.K.U.K.Jan.Jan.-Feb.Feb.2024202415.8%15.8%7.9%7.9%202316.5%7.4%B BEV and PHEV and PHE EV sales proportion in major V sales proportion in major European economiesEuropean economiesBEV and PHEV Sales in Japan2 2-1.B1.BEV and PHEV and PHE EV sales volume and proportio

21、n in Japan V sales volume and proportion in Japan(Jan.(Jan.-Feb.2024)Feb.2024)23%23%25%25%31%31%32%32%33%33%34%34%35%35%39%39%42%42%46%46%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%0500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,0003,500,0004,000,0004,500,0005,000,0002014151617181920212223HEVPHVEVFCVICEPercen

22、tage of HVsin vehicle unitsSource:JAMA2 2-2.2.HEV sales volume and proportion in JapanHEV sales volume and proportion in Japan(passenger car)(passenger car)3 3-1.Japans Electrification Targets,per Its Green Growth Strategy 1.Japans Electrification Targets,per Its Green Growth Strategy(at June 18,202

23、1)(at June 18,2021)Electrification goalsElectrification goalsPassenger carsPassenger cars:New car sales to be 100%electrified vehicles(HEVs/PHEVs/BEVs/FCVs)by 2035.100%electrified vehicles(HEVs/PHEVs/BEVs/FCVs)by 2035.Commercial vehicles(under 8 tons):Commercial vehicles(under 8 tons):New CV sales t

24、o be 2020-30%electrified vehicles by 203030%electrified vehicles by 2030;New CV sales to be 100%electrified vehicles or vehicles suitable for carbon-neutral fuel use by 2040.Commercial vehicles(over 8 tons):Commercial vehicles(over 8 tons):In parallel with technological verification for the developm

25、ent and use of EVs adapted to freight and passenger transport operations,5,000 units to be put into service in the 2020s;EV market share target for 2040 to be established by 2030 taking into account advances in technology and premised on anticipated reduced cost of hydrogen,synthetic fuels,etc.Infra

26、structureInfrastructure development goalsdevelopment goalsInstallation of 30,000 30,000 rapidrapid chargers and 120,000 chargers and 120,000 ordinaryordinary chargers by 2030 chargers by 2030 at the latest(to achieve convenience parity with gasoline vehicles).Installation of approximately 1,000 hydr

27、ogen stations by 2030 1,000 hydrogen stations by 2030(to promote in particular the installation of refueling facilities for commercial vehicles).Decarbonization of fuelDecarbonization of fuelFor synthetic fuels,expansion of supply and cost reductions in 2030s aiming at independent commercialization

28、by 2040commercialization by 2040.In August 2023,the previous target of 150,000 chargers(ordinary/rapid)was changed to 300,000 charging ports.3 3-2.2.Outline of the vehicle purchase subsidy in Japan(CEV subsidy)(FY2023 Outline of the vehicle purchase subsidy in Japan(CEV subsidy)(FY2023 supplementary

29、 budget:129.1 billion yen)supplementary budget:129.1 billion yen)The budget for the CEV subsidy is increasing every year.Total amount:53 billion yen(FY2022),90 billion yen(FY2023)FY2024:significant increase to record-high 129.1 billion yen solely from the FY2023 supplementary budgetSubsidy amountSub

30、sidy amountBEV150-850 thousand yenLight BEV150-550 thousand yenPHEV150-550 thousand yenFCVUpper limit:2550 thousand yen*Regarding an BEV,PHEV,or FCV with a manufacturers suggested retail price(excluding tax)of 8.4 million yen or above,the calculated subsidy amount is multiplied by a price coefficien

31、t of 0.8.Subsidy amountSubsidy amount*The subsidy amount is applied in multiple tiers based on an evaluation.Electric Vehicle(BEV)Light Electric Vehicle(Light BEV)Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle(PHEV)*Examples of eligible vehicles for the CEV subsidyElectric motorcycleFuel Cell Vehicle(FCV)3 3-3.Future ASEAN

32、3.Future ASEAN-Japan Cooperation in the Automotive IndustryJapan Cooperation in the Automotive IndustryIn the context of global development of decarbonization and electrification,it is important for ASEAN to strengthen its competitiveness and develop as a center for the production and export of a wi

33、de variety of vehicles.In ASEAN,which is a growing market where Japanese auto manufacturers have high sales share and where supply chains are concentrated,the following frameworks were agreed to be established and initiatives to be promoted.At the Commemorative Summit for the 50th Year of ASEAN-Japa

34、n Friendship and Cooperation(Dec.17,2023),the leaders agreed on the Next Generation Automotive Industry Co-Creation Initiative.ASEAN-Japan Next Generation Automotive Industry Strategic Master Plan“(ERIA)Decarbonizing the entire value chain Realizing diversified portfolio production and exports inclu

35、ding EV/HEV Promoting the formation of specific“co-created”projects Through bilateral dialogues with ASAEN members,specific cooperative initiatives will be sought to strengthen the competitiveness of the region as a base for automobile production and exports.3 3-4.Implementation Plan of the Joint Vi

36、sion Statement on ASEAN4.Implementation Plan of the Joint Vision Statement on ASEAN-Japan Friendship and Japan Friendship and Cooperation Trusted Partners Cooperation Trusted Partners（17 December 2023,Tokyo17 December 2023,Tokyo）2.1.14 Explore cooperation under the ASEAN-Japan Co-Creation Initiative

37、 for the Next-Generation Automotive Industry possibly includingi)developing a master plan by ERIA for the next generation automotive industry strategy while taking into account the global situation of automobile market and ASEANs strengths,ii)in collaboration with AZEC platform,coordinating policies

38、 among member economies to decarbonise the entire value chain,to build resilient and reliable supply chains that promote reliable and trustworthy sources for strategic goods,and to realise diversified portfolio production and exports including EV/HEV,andiii)promoting the formation of specific“co-cre

39、ated”projects4 4-1.JAMAs Stance on Carbon Neutrality1.JAMAs Stance on Carbon NeutralityThe use of CNF is a key pathway to carbon neutrality by 2050.The use of CNF is a key pathway to carbon neutrality by 2050.JAMA StanceJAMA StanceJAMAJAMA membermember companiescompanies willwill makemake utmostutmo

40、st effortsefforts forfor carboncarbon neutralityneutrality byby 20502050.Stance on CarbonStance on Carbon-Neutral Fuel(CNF)Neutral Fuel(CNF)JAMA CommentsJAMA Comments The goal is carbon neutrality(CN).The goal is carbon neutrality(CN).Approaches to achieving CN should be technologyApproaches to achi

41、eving CN should be technology-neutral.neutral.A diversity of options is crucial to achieving A diversity of options is crucial to achieving our goals.our goals.There are optimal pathways to CN for individual economies/regions.There are optimal pathways to CN for individual economies/regions.4 4-2.To

42、wards Carbon Neutrality(Automotive)2.Towards Carbon Neutrality(Automotive)CarbonCarbon-neutral fuel neutral fuel is one of the promising options for achieving is one of the promising options for achieving carboncarbon-neutral automotive transport and a carbonneutral automotive transport and a carbon

43、-neutral societyneutral society.Gasoline,DieselElectricityHydrogenHEVsBEVsPHEVsFCEVsC-N FuelBiofuels,E-fuelsC-N ElectricityC-NHydrogenHEVsBEVsPHEVsFCEVsICEVsCarbonCarbon-ReducingReducingCarbonCarbon-NeutralNeutralICE:Internal combustion engine4 4-3.What Is Carbon3.What Is Carbon-Neutral Fuel?Neutral

44、 Fuel?COCO2 2COCO2 2BiomassBiomassBiofuelsBiofuels:There is a:There is a high potential high potential for biomass utilization in APEC economies.for biomass utilization in APEC economies.Synthetic fuels:Synthetic fuels:Use expected for CNF,but commercialization takes time.Use expected for CNF,but co

45、mmercialization takes time.PhotosynthesisPhotosynthesisH2H2Renewable energyRenewable energyIndustrial synthesisIndustrial synthesisBiofuelsBiofuels（lowlow-carbon fuel)carbon fuel)Synthetic Synthetic fuelfuelSynthetic fuelsSynthetic fuels(e(e-fuels)fuels)DAC DAC(Direct Air Capture)(Direct Air Capture

46、)PhotosynthesisrouteIndustrial synthesisrouteCopyright 2022 APEC Secretariat4 4-4.Worldwide Synthetic Fuel Production Projections4.Worldwide Synthetic Fuel Production Projections Commercialization Commercialization of synthetic fuel of synthetic fuel takes timetakes time.JAMA JAMA promotes itpromote

47、s it,so,so we hope to discuss it at another we hope to discuss it at another time.time.Utilization of Utilization of biofuel is important biofuel is important during the during the transition periodtransition period.NorwayNorwaySynthetic 0.01 Synthetic 0.01 MkLMkL(2023(2023)UAEUAEHydrogenHydrogenGWG

48、WJapanJapanSynthetic 0.58 Synthetic 0.58 MkLMkL(2040(2040）CanadaCanadaSynthetic 0.12 Synthetic 0.12 MkLMkL(2025(2025）SpainSpainSynthetic 3600 Synthetic 3600 kLkL(2024)(2024)Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia2022 For racing2022 For racingChileChileFor racing(2022For racing(2022)0.55 0.55 MkLMkL(2026(2026)The U

49、SAThe USAGasoline 0.05 Gasoline 0.05 MkLMkL(2024(2024）Copyright 2022 APEC SecretariatEUEUE5/E10E5/E10IndiaIndiaE0/E10E0/E10(E20,E100(E20,E100 policy was policy was proposed.)proposed.)ChinaChinaE5/E10E5/E10JapanJapanE3/E10E3/E10CanadaCanadaE0/E10E0/E10BrazilBrazilE27/E27/E100E100FranceFranceE10/E10/

50、E85E85AustraliaAustraliaE0/E10E0/E10ThailandThailandE10/E20/E10/E20/E85E85The USAThe USAE10/E15/E10/E15/E85E85IndonesiaIndonesiaE0/E10E0/E10Preferential tax on E100Preferential tax on E1004 4-5.World Trends in Biofuel Use:Ethanol5.World Trends in Biofuel Use:EthanolE E:Current regulatory level:Curre

51、nt regulatory levelE#:High bioethanol content E#:High bioethanol content Higher levels Higher levels u under nder consideration consideration Ethanol is used in many economies worldwide.Ethanol is used in many economies worldwide.Many economies have plans to increase ethanol content.Many economies h

52、ave plans to increase ethanol content.Copyright 2022 APEC SecretariatNorway,Finland,Sweden,Norway,Finland,Sweden,Belgium,NetherlandsBelgium,NetherlandsB100(HVO100)B100(HVO100)ColombiaColombiaB12B12 B10B10The USAThe USAB5/B20 B5/B20 MinnesotaMinnesota(summer)(summer)FranceFranceB10B10IndiaIndiaB7B7Ma

53、laysiaMalaysiaB7/B20B7/B20ArgentinaArgentinaB10B10 B7B7 B10?B10?EUEUB7B7ThailandThailandB7/B20B7/B20IndonesiaIndonesiaB0/B30B0/B30BrazilBrazilB10/B15(2025)B10/B15(2025)4 4-6.World Trends in Biofuel Use:Biodiesel(FAME,HVO)6.World Trends in Biofuel Use:Biodiesel(FAME,HVO)The use of FAME is expected to

54、 increase in some economies.The use of FAME is expected to increase in some economies.Some economies in Europe use Some economies in Europe use highhigh-concentration HVOconcentration HVO.4 4-7.JAMAs opinion on CNF7.JAMAs opinion on CNF1.1.CNF is one of the CNF is one of the key pathways to key path

55、ways to the 2050 the 2050 carbon neutrality goalcarbon neutrality goal.2.2.CNF has merits in terms of CNF has merits in terms of energy securityenergy security,immediate effectsimmediate effects,user user convenienceconvenience,and,and utilization of existing infrastructureutilization of existing in

56、frastructure.3.3.However,there are issues such as However,there are issues such as costcost,supply volumessupply volumes,stable securingstable securing of of raw materials,so therefore:raw materials,so therefore:The adoption of a specific strategy for the leadThe adoption of a specific strategy for

57、the lead-up to CN as well as up to CN as well as joint joint initiatives by industry,government,and academiainitiatives by industry,government,and academia in its implementation in its implementation are necessary.are necessary.Discussions among stakeholders are necessary.Discussions among stakehold

58、ers are necessary.4.4.APEC economies have abundant bio resources.Especially in the transition APEC economies have abundant bio resources.Especially in the transition period to CN,the period to CN,the use of biofuels use of biofuels is among the most practical approaches to is among the most practica

59、l approaches to the challenge.the challenge.5.5.JAMA has been promoting CNF research and studies,and hopes to JAMA has been promoting CNF research and studies,and hopes to cooperate with/support APEC economies cooperate with/support APEC economies in their efforts.in their efforts.apecperu.pe/2024apecperu#APECPeru2024