歐洲5G就緒指數：評估歐洲5G部署準備和5G應用情況 - inCITES（英文版）（29頁）.pdf

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1、Europe 5G Readiness Index Assessing Europes readiness to deploy and adopt 5G ABOUT inCITES CONSULTING SCENARIO ANALYSIS inCITES EUROPE 5G SUBSCRIPTION FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS BY FACTOR CATEGORY 2 HIGHLIGHTS BY GEOGRAPHY INDEX RESULTS INTRODUCTION 3 INTRODUCTION 4 INDEX RESULTS 5 HIGHLIGHTS BY GEOGRAPHY

2、13 HIGHLIGHTS BY FACTOR CATEGORY 24 inCITES EUROPE 5G SUBSCRIPTION FORECAST 26 SCENARIO ANALYSIS 28 ABOUT inCITES CONSULTING methodology Europe 5G Readiness Index Introduction One year after the introduction of our 5G Readiness Index, the ICT world keeps pushing towards the common goal of 5G deploym

3、ent. Time and effort are tirelessly being put into the technologicaladvancementthathasbeentoutedasthenextbigstepforthe telecommunications world. The potential is said to be limited only by the boundaries of our imagination, but to reach untapped capabilities there needs to be actual development befo

4、re all else. For some, the 5G era looks closer than ever as commercial 5G networks are already being deployed in well-developed and mature markets. But for others, there still exist some serious obstacles before being able to hop onto the bandwagon and start reaping the multi- faceted benefits that

5、the next day can bring. Once again, in year 2020, we will be taking a close look into what we believe to be some of the most important factors and evaluate each European countrys readiness to deploy and adopt 5G networks. To achieve such a goal, the Europe 5G Readiness Index is being updated, taking

6、 into consideration a full year of developments in the 5G race. For those unfamiliar with the index, an overall readiness score is presented for each country which comprises 6 factor categories with 35 criteria in total within those categories. Index scores can be used to draw comparisons at all lev

7、els (overall score, factor category score, criterion score) on a like-for-like basis. The divide between Western and Eastern Europe still exists, while Northern European countries in particular look very well equipped for the challenges lying ahead. The ability to promote innovation accompanied by s

8、table regulation and policymaking appear to be strong points that characterize most mature European markets. Nonetheless, most countries can take advantage of their strengths, alleviate their weaknesses and look to adjust and take the necessary steps to prevent lagging and missing out on the technol

9、ogical wave that is expected to take the world by storm. More details regarding the methodology and assumptions used to construct the Index can be found in the Europe 5G Readiness Index: Methodology document. For press inquiries, email . Europe 5G Readiness Index Report 3 Index Results 4Europe 5G Re

10、adiness Index Report Total Rank Country Name Total Score Infrastructure and Technology Regulation and Policy Innovation Landscape Human Capital Country Profile Demand ScoreRankScoreRankScoreRankScoreRankScoreRankScoreRank 1 Finland70.9567.44475.62164.24376.04185.06162.235 2 Switzerland69.0065.16674.

11、62264.17469.74281.12861.776 3 Germany66.6869.99368.95663.83564.791082.35451.8219 4 Denmark65.9351.182169.49565.52265.00879.931271.231 5 Sweden65.9156.581366.64968.00165.15783.02363.394 6 United Kingdom65.2666.09566.74855.531160.541381.90661.427 7 Netherlands65.2452.481973.13459.75668.71384.77260.288

12、 8 Norway64.0862.53767.03756.21966.70480.92955.5013 9 Luxembourg62.9754.151773.74354.231255.182281.80758.9210 10 Austria62.6159.09962.491356.57865.58680.051158.2812 11 Iceland61.0044.442765.381055.981064.341177.071567.572 12 Estonia60.4657.321163.241246.331758.731582.02558.6411 13 France59.3856.9712

13、60.181452.991359.981480.201051.7420 14 Ireland59.0654.891460.121551.281464.92975.571854.5615 15 Spain58.6373.58149.232040.312058.111679.631452.4918 16 Portugal55.7657.321048.532146.351657.241779.671353.1716 17 Belgium55.7142.832856.771656.71764.001273.372052.6617 18 Latvia55.0759.34846.462237.292553

14、.812373.372163.543 19 Lithuania54.9249.432452.291943.641955.652076.251659.379 20 Italy53.0171.60235.833336.752652.322776.051749.0521 21 Slovenia51.3250.292346.192345.211855.352173.042246.6325 22 Russia49.9050.792244.152436.582753.282474.221948.2822 23 Czech Republic49.8351.812041.373147.111552.71256

15、7.213346.4226 24 Azerbaijan49.5232.923263.731140.022152.482671.952743.0232 25 Poland49.2154.471534.863536.112850.342872.392354.9114 26 Hungary48.9054.441641.443038.302344.543271.132847.0524 27 Romania47.1853.541841.802932.113043.993370.183044.2528 28 Slovakia46.2747.832535.133438.602243.903472.26254

16、7.9723 29 Cyprus46.2436.643153.541830.763256.281972.262438.1436 30 Greece45.7644.912634.593631.443165.96570.782944.0431 31 Bulgaria45.2737.942942.822737.502447.373071.992644.2129 32 Georgia42.3627.603755.871728.483539.673663.463642.3433 33 Serbia42.1731.413343.862534.922948.452968.883137.3837 34 Alb

17、ania41.2329.673643.722628.143647.363164.293544.1230 35 Croatia39.9737.813028.553828.723442.153568.223245.6627 36 Moldova39.0730.763539.653225.683838.803764.953442.1734 37 Ukraine37.9822.873841.892830.043357.091861.833831.2639 38 North Macedonia35.9330.803434.543726.243727.353962.443738.5735 39 Bosni

18、a and Herzegovina28.3819.623919.913923.583933.343854.073933.4538 Table 1 5G Readiness Index Unequal weights Digital Agenda for Europe targets 2.1 Western Europe During 2019, Western European countries retained their strong focus on 5G networks as trials are still being conducted while concentrated e

19、ffort is being placed into the development of commercial 5G networks. However, there are more steps to take in order to create the conditions needed to successfully adopt this new technology and exploit its vast capabilities. As observed in the final rankings, there can be substantial disparity betw

20、een 5G pilots and overall score as the Index is looking to evaluate a countrys ability to create a sustainable ecosystem that will allow the full 5G potential to surface. New technologies require governmental, regulatoryandbusinessforcestobe aligned in order to create a productive environment and la

21、ck thereof can become a severe hindrance. This is the case for Spain, France and Italy, for example, who are leading the pack in terms of 5G pilots but are lagging behind in overall rank due to shortcomings in other impactful sectors. Europe 5G Readiness Index Report 5 Highlights by Geography Countr

22、y name Overall Rank 5G pilots rank Finland17 Switzerland222 Germany38 Denmark48 Sweden516 UK612 Table 2 Overall & 5G pilots ranking of top-6 countries Overall, Western Europe is dominating theEurope5GReadinessIndex capturing 17 spots in the top-20, a result of its consistent performance across all f

23、actors.Onaverage,W.Europes performance ranks better the Eastern European average in every category. Bigpartofsaidconsistencyisthe performance of the Nordic countries that take up 3 spots in the top 5 and all rank into the top 10 with the close exception of Iceland in the 11thplace. They rank on aver

24、age noticeably better than the rest of theEurope,trailingonlyinthe Infrastructure and Technology factor. Other than that, they excel and rank at least in the 70thpercentile in factors dealingwithregulation,policymaking, innovation and human capital. The North looksprimedforthesuccessful integration

25、of 5G in the societal and business framework. As top performers build on their well- rounded performance, it becomes more difficult for others to catch up. Southern European countries faces such difficulties as they display volatility across factors. Performing well on some factors and poorly on oth

26、ers. Total Infrastructure and Technology Regulation InnovationHuman Capital Country Profile Demand Average score per factor NordicRest of Europe 6Europe 5G Readiness Index Report Notably, Italians and Iberians are ranking in the top 10 in Infrastructure and Technology butreallyaverageonRegulationand

27、 Policy. Regardless, they show promising signs and can surely move to the right direction should they adopt a right mixture of policymaking and incentives. On the other hand, Greece and Cyprus seem to have serious issues, performing poorly in most cases with a few exceptions. Overall, they both rank

28、 way below the other W. European countries. Benelux is another subset of interest within the Western Europe group showing some disparity.BothNetherlandsand Luxembourg rank in the top 10 (7thand 10th) but Belgium fallsoff in the 17th position. Netherlandsisatoptierperformer, consistently placing in t

29、he top 10 with the exception of Infrastructure and Technology (20th), mainly due to the lack of commercial 5Gnetworksandfiberdeployment. Luxembourgs strength lies in its 3rdplace in Regulation and Policy, achieving great result in ensuring a stable, efficient and adaptable environment for the ICT se

30、ctor to prosper. Belgium performs well in the Innovation Landscape (7th) and Human Capital (12th) category, especially when education and R&D is involved, but has difficulties in the infrastructure department ranking 37thin fiber coverage and 28thoverall. Interesting Data Points Finland is a top 5 p

31、erformer in all categories and takes the 1stplace in Regulation and Policy, Human Capital and Country Profile. Having completed relevant spectrum auctions and already boasting commercial deployment, Finland is primed for a leading role in the 5G era. The average South European country would rank 21s

32、toverall but excluding Greece and Cyprus from the mix, the rest of the bunch would average 16th. Interestingly, the difference comes mainly from the Infrastructure and Technology factor, as the divide is quite small in other categories. Spain ranks 1stin Infrastructure and Technology but produces me

33、diocre results in the other categories, resulting in its overall 15thplace. A correlation analysis between all examined criteria and the countries land area (km2) was conducted to identify whether country size has any role to play in a countrys 5G readiness. No significant correlation was identified

34、 to exist between country size and any one criterion. Europe 5G Readiness Index Report 7 16 10 21 16 17 13 16 15 1 2020 16 14 18 20 2 33 26 27 17 21 29 31 18 32 19 24 36 30 26 36 31 5 29 31 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Country Rank Mediterannean countries show a mix of promise and struggle Country rank by

35、category for five W. European countries Portugal Spain Italy Cyprus Greece Total Infrastructure and Technology Regulation and Policy Innovation Landscape Human Capital Country Profile Demand 2.2 Eastern Europe Eastern European countries do not appear asreadyastheWesternones.The highest ranked is the

36、 outlier and 12th placed Estonia. The average E. European country would rank 32ndwith an overall score of 45.16 points. There is a substantial score difference whencomparedtoW.Europeinall categories. The overall score gap cannot easily be attributed to a specific factor as there is a divide that cha

37、racterizes all factors.Suchadividewouldbethe outcomeofamultitudeofsocietal, economic and political reasons. Butthegreatestdisparitycomesin RegulationandPolicyandInnovation Landscape, two factors that negatively affect Eastern countries and come up regularly as focal points in establishing 5G network

38、s. 8Europe 5G Readiness Index Report 60,7 57,3 61,3 52,8 63,0 79,4 56,3 45,0 40,7 42,0 34,6 46,7 68,5 45,3 0 20 40 60 80 100 Total ScoreInfrastructure and Technology Regulation and Policy Innovation Landscape Human CapitalCountry ProfileDemand Factor score Average W. Europe country score is higher t

39、han E. Europe across all categories Max, min and average score across all categories by country block Factor category score range Western Europe avg. Eastern Europe avg. This can be also observed in the Balkan regionwhereE.Europeancountries occupy6bottom10spots.Eastern countriesseemlessabletoprovide

40、 stabilityandadaptabilitywhilebeing perceivedasmorecorruptthantheir Western counterparts in addition to falling behind in the R&D department. Anunderlyingexplanatoryparameter behind the described differences can be the national levels of wealth. A fairly strong correlation can be observed between fi

41、nal Index score and GDP per capita ( R = 0.77) supportingtheintuition.Although,this conclusion is not relied upon to understand further relations between countries. Interesting Data Points The Baltics countries are the clear frontrunners in the E. Europe subregion with no other countries earning a t

42、op 10 spot in any of the categories Slovenia is the next best in the 21stplace overall with balanced scores across all categories ranging from 18thto 25th. Eastern European countries place 31ston average as their total score deeps low, especially at the tail end of the distribution. The highest-rank

43、ing Balkan country is Romania (27th) mostly due to an outstanding 18th place in the Infrastructure and Technology category (subregion would place 29thon average). Fiber coverage and 5G commercial deployment activity act as a difference maker for Romania, a dynamic telecom market with high potential.

44、 Europe 5G Readiness Index Report 9 2.3 Baltics Countriesthathavetraditionallybeenpioneersin technology development and adoption lead the 5G race in Europe. Due to their geographic proximity with Nordic countries, Baltic countries are cooperating heavily with them in order to facilitate the swift an

45、d smooth transition to 5G networks. 10Europe 5G Readiness Index Report The Baltics are closer to the Western Europe considering their 5G readiness as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania stand in the 12th, 18thand 19thposition, respectively. Estonia is scoring very well in Country Profile (5th) and general

46、ly in subfactors describing the ability to nurture the right environmentforbusinessestothrive. Latvias position is driven by its 8thplace in Infrastructure and Technology (result of the exceptional1stoverallplaceinfiber coverage achieving a whopping 87.8%) as well as the 3rd place in Demand (ranking

47、 2nd overall in 4G penetration). Lithuania is also performing well in the Demand category (9th) mainly due to its position as the 4thranked country in NGA penetration. 40,01 34,38 36,46 30,17 41,43 65,73 41,09 56,82 55,36 53,99 42,42 56,06 77,21 60,52 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 TotalInfrastructure and Tec

48、hnology Regulation and PolicyInnovationHuman CapitalCountry ProfileDemand Western-Eastern score comparisons Western EuropeE. Europe BalkansBaltics Interesting Data Points The first cluster includes the top-14 countries as per the Index ranking with the addition of 17thBelgium. All the countries in t

49、he first cluster belong to W. Europe and they are located in the north-west part of Europe, apart from Estonia. The average GDP per capita for the three clusters is $59.5k, $34.9k and $17.7k, respectively and 14 out of 15 countries within the first cluster are also the top-14 countries by GDP per capita in W. Europe. This highlights a relationship between ranking and economic status. The second cluster comprises 13 countries, 4 from W. Europe and 9 from E. Europe, while all countries except Russia are part of the EU. This cluster includes middle of the pack countr