2020年創新印尼：通過技術改造釋放增長 - 亞洲開發銀行（英文版）（176頁）.pdf

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1、INNOVATE INDONESIA UNLOCKING GROWTH THROUGH TECHNOLOGICAL TRANSFORMATION MARCH 2020 The critical role of technology transformation in boosting Indonesias economic development Advanced innovation infrastructure and institutions Awareness of the business value of new technologies Technology transfer a

2、nd technical support for fi rms Low-cost plug-and- play technology solutions for Indonesian fi rms A tech-savvy workforce Five pillars for policy action SECTIONSECTIONSECTIONSECTIONSECTIONSECTION 123456 An in-depth understanding oftechnology and sector-specifi c opportunities and challenges Variety

3、of technologies Photonics Bio Nano Advanced materials ICT technologies (e.g., big data, IOT, AI) Advanced production technologies (e.g.,3D printing) Other Variety of sector-specifi c applications Energy Finance Commerce Manufacturing Agriculture Other Crosscutting themes: Gender equality, labor mark

4、et, regional development, urban planning New opportunities, including: In energy, positive spillover ef ects on the environment and economic activity through the use of electric motorcycles and microgeneration In fi ntech, improved fi nancial inclusion and SMEs access to fi nance through peer-to-pee

5、r payment and lending, and equitycrowdfunding In e-commerce, improved fi rms market access (and increased sales and profi ts) through the use of online e-commerce platforms In manufacturing, productivity gains through the use of digitally enabled factory solutions In urban planning, socioeconomic de

6、velopment and regional disparities narrowed by expanding existing investments in digital infrastructure Indonesias economy could gain $2.8 trillion by 2040 through technology adoption (adding 0.55percentage points to GDP growth annually from 2020 and 2040) Technology and innovation have historically

7、 been key drivers of structural change and economic growth Constraints on Indonesias growth potential: Slowing growth of the labor force Limited productivity growth Lower manufacturing growth rates 3D = three dimensional, AI = artifi cial intelligence, G20 = Group of 20, GDP = gross domestic product

8、, ICT = information and communication technology, IOT = internet of things, R AI for decision-making in production processes; quality control and predictive maintenance; and the use of big data for quality verifi cation and traceability In textiles and clothing, new products with digital features su

9、ch as heartrate and distance monitoring, e-commerce platforms; and virtual 3D modeling for optimization of industrial processes In electronics, automatic domestic lighting products; security and energy-ef ciency systems, health-care mobile applications; and real-time data for smart agriculture In fo

10、otwear, “smart products” such as shoes with automatic size adjustment, and e-commerce platforms for direct communication with suppliers and customers Innovate IndonesIa UnLoCKInG GRoWtH tHRoUGH teCHnoLoGICaL tRansFoRMatIon MARCH 2020 Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) 2020

11、Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines Tel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444 www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2020. ISBN 978-92-9262-039-4 (print); 978-92-9262-040-0 (electronic); 978-92-9262-041-7 (ebook) Publication Stock No. SGP20008

12、5-2 DOI: http:/dx.doi.org/10.22617/SGP200085-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies ofthe Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of

13、 the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By mak

14、ing any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country” inthis document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO

15、license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) https:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be bound bytheterms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisions andterms of use at https:/www.adb.org/terms-use

16、#openaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributed toanother source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it. ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a resu

17、lt of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketingadb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wish toobtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to use theADB logo. Corrigenda to ADB publication

18、s may be found at http:/www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. Notes: In this publication, “$” refers to United States dollars and “Rp” refers to Indonesia rupiahs, unless otherwise stated. ADB recognizes “China” as the Peoples Republic of China, and “Korea” and “South Korea” as the Republic of Korea.

19、 Cover design by Mike Cortes. iii CONTeNTS tabLes, FIGURes, and boxes v FoReWoRd by the Minister of Finance, Republic of Indonesia viii FoReWoRd by the President, asian development bank x aCKnoWLedGMents xii abbRevIatIons xv exeCUtIve sUMMaRy xvi IntRodUCtIon 1 1 the Critical Role of technological t

20、ransformation 3 in boosting Indonesias economicdevelopment 1.1Introduction 4 1.2Constraints on Indonesias Growth Potential 4 1.3The Role of Technological Transformation in economic Development 6 1.4Potential Impact of New Technologies: International evidence 8 1.5estimating the Potential Impact of N

21、ew Technologies on Indonesias Development 8 1.6Conclusions 12 2 technology and sector-specific opportunities andChallenges forIndonesia 13 2.1Introduction 14 2.2Diversity of emerging Technologies 15 2.3Variety of Technological Applications across Sectors, Value Chains, and Firms 17 2.4Technology and

22、 Sector-Specific Opportunities and Challenges: Selected examples 18 2.5Conclusions 28 iv|Contents 3 Indonesias Position in the technological transformation Journey 29 3.1Introduction 30 3.2Indonesias National Innovation System and Its Performance 30 3.3Key Themes in the Policy Agenda 41 3.4 Analysis

23、 of Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats 45 Affecting Indonesias National Innovation System 3.5Conclusions 46 4 a “deep dive” into Industry 4.0 inIndonesia 47 4.1Introduction 48 4.2Relevance of Industry 4.0 for Indonesia 48 4.3Industry 4.0 in Indonesia: Insights from a Manufacturing Sur

24、vey 52 4.4Industry 4.0 in Indonesia: Insights from Focus Group Discussions 55 4.5Conclusions 61 5 Five Pillars to support Indonesias technological transformation 62 5.1Introduction 63 5.2Pillar 1: Advanced Innovation Infrastructure and Institutions 64 5.3Pillar 2: Awareness of the Business Value of

25、New Technologies 67 5.4Pillar 3: Technology Transfer and Technical Support for Firms 70 5.5 Pillar 4: Low-Cost Plug-and-Play Technology Solutions for Indonesian Firms 73 5.6 Pillar 5: A Tech-Savvy Workforce 74 5.7An Agenda for Future Actions 80 aPPendIxes 1 Overview of Manufacturing inIndonesia 83 2

26、 Findings from StakeholderConsultations 92 3 Case Studies of InternationalPolicy Initiatives 120 v TABLeS, FIGUReS, AND BOxeS tabLes 1 Potential Implications of Technologies in Selected Sectors xix 2 Science, Technology, and Innovation Indicators: Indonesia versus ASeAN xxi 3 Indonesias National Inn

27、ovation System: Strengths,Weaknesses,Opportunities, and Threats xxii 4 Trends and Opportunities Shaping Indonesian Industry xxiv 1.1 Simulated Impact on Indonesias National and Regional economic Growth Rates 10 2.1 Potential Implications of Technologies in Selected Sectors 19 3.1 Indonesias Position

28、 in Selected Innovation and Digitalization Rankings 31 3.2 Indonesias National Innovation System: Strengths,Weaknesses,Opportunities, and Threats 45 4.1 Distinctive Features of Selected Indonesian Manufacturing Industries 51 4.2 Key Trends and Drivers of Change Affecting Selected Sectors 57 4.3 Oppo

29、rtunities for Value Capture Arising from New Technologies in Selected Sectors 58 4.4 Selected Barriers to Technology Adoption across Manufacturing Firms in Indonesia 60 5.1 Support Mechanisms for Technological Transfer and Technical Support: A Stratified Approach 71 5.2 Skills Needs for a Tech-Savvy

30、 Workforce 77 5.3 An Agenda for Future Action on Five Pillars to Support Indonesias Technological Transformation 81 A1.1 Key Opportunities and Challenges for Indonesian Manufacturing 90 A1.2 Sectors and Statistical Codes Used in the Analysis 91 A2.1 Industry 4.0 Adoption Challenges: Implications for

31、 Indonesia 93 A2.2 Trends and Drivers Identified in Food and Beverage Focus Group Discussions 97 A2.3 Opportunities for Value Capture Identified in Food and Beverage Focus Group Discussions 99 A2.4 Trends and Drivers Identified in Automotive Industry Focus Group Discussions 104 A2.5 Opportunities fo

32、r Value Capture Identified in Automotive Industry Focus Group Discussions 105 A2.6 Trends and Drivers Identified in Textile, Clothing, and Footwear Focus Group Discussions 111 A2.7 Opportunities for Value Capture Identified in Textile, Clothing, and Footwear 112 Focus Group Discussions A2.8 Trends a

33、nd Drivers in electronics Focus Group Discussions 117 A2.9 Opportunities for Value Capture in electronics Focus Group Discussions 118 A3.1 International Policy Initiatives Addressing New Technologies 120 vi|tables, Figures, and boxes FIGURes 1 Various New Technologies Driving Change across economic

34、Sectors and Activities xviii 1.1 Sources of Indonesias economic Growth, 19942018 5 1.2 Lack of Consensus in Predictions of the Impact of Automation on Jobs Worldwide 9 1.3 expected Impact of New Technology Adoption on Sectoral Output in 2040 11 2.1 Various New Technologies Driving Change Across econ

35、omic Sectors and Activities 14 2.2 Several emerging Technologies Driving Change in National economies 16 3.1 Research and Development expenditure in ASeAN, 2017 or Latest Available 32 3.2 Research and Development by Sector Performance, 2017 or Latest Available 32 3.3 Patent Applications by Residents

36、 and Nonresidents in ASeAN, 2017 or Latest Available 33 3.4 Articles Published in Scientific and Technical Journals inASeAN, 2017 or Latest Available 34 3.5 Digital Technology Penetration Indicators in ASeAN, 2018 38 3.6 Population with Tertiary education in the OeCD and Other Selected Countries, 20

37、17 40 3.7 Projected Share of Graduates with STeM Degrees across OeCD and G20 Countries in 2030 40 4.1 Contribution of Manufacturing to Indonesias economy, 2017 50 4.2 Contribution of Selected Sectors to Manufacturing Value Added and employment 50 4.3 Manufacturing Survey Respondents Profile 52 4.4 M

38、anufacturing Survey Results 54 4.5 Focus Group Discussion Methodological Approach 55 4.6 Self-Assessed Level of Technology Adoption by Manufacturing Firms in Indonesia 59 A1.1 Indonesia Manufacturing Value Added, 19832017 83 A1.2 Contributionof Manufacturing to the Indonesian economy, 2017 84 A1.3 M

39、anufacturing Value Added inSelected Countries, 2017 84 A1.4 Contribution to Manufacturing in Indonesia by Subsector, 2015 85 A1.5 Indonesian Manufacturing by Firm Size, 2015 86 A1.6 Indonesian exports by Sector, 2017 87 A1.7 Medium- and High-Tech exports from Selected Countries, 2000 and 2015 88 A1.

40、8 Indonesian Imports by Sector, 2017 89 A1.9 Indonesias Top 10 export and Import Trade Partners, 2017 89 A2.1 Food and Beverage Contributions to Manufacturing 94 A2.2 Barriers to Technological Innovation and Adoption in the Food and Beverage Industry 100 A2.3 Automotive Sector Contributions to Manuf

41、acturing 101 A2.4 Barriers to Technological Innovation and Adoption in the Automotive Industry 106 tables, Figures, and boxes|vii A2.5 Textile, Clothing, and Footwear Contributions to Manufacturing 107 A2.6 Barriers to Technological Innovation and Adoption in Textiles, Clothing, and Footwear 113 A2.

42、7 electronics Contributions to Manufacturing 114 A2.8 Barriers to Technological Innovation and Adoption in electronics 119 boxes 1 Multidisciplinary Study Integrating Published and Survey evidence xvii 2 Industry 4.0 in Indonesia: Insights from a Manufacturing Survey xxiii 2.1 Tax Implications from

43、Online Hotel Booking in Indonesia 25 3.1 Indonesias Digital Start-Up ecosystem 35 3.2 The Case of Gojek 36 3.3 Recent Government Initiatives to Support e-Commerce and Fintech 36 3.4 Making Indonesia 4.0 43 3.5 Fiscal Incentives for the Manufacturing Industry 44 5.1 Advanced Innovation Institutions a

44、nd Infrastructure 66 5.2 Awareness of the Business Value of New Technologies 69 5.3 Technology Transfer and Technical Support for Firms 72 5.4 Low-Cost Plug-and-Play Technology for Indonesian Firms 75 5.5 Developing a Tech-Savvy Workforce 78 viii FOReWORD By the Minister of Finance, Republic of Indo

45、nesia I welcome this flagship report as a valuable knowledge asset to support policymakers in Indonesia. Wearefirm in our commitment to bring Indonesia to high-income status by 2045, and the governmentis building the foundation toward that goal. To achieve this, we must seek investment opportunities

46、 to boost our potential for growth. The Indonesian economy is already enjoying steady growth, but meeting our aspiration for greater national prosperity requires us to enhance our economic competitiveness. To this end, innovation and new technologies are crucial as they allow industries to become mo

47、re productive by enabling better use of resources, the creation of new products, and the expansion of new markets. As technological developments reshape industries, restructure markets, and redefine competitive advantage, it is not immediately clear who the winners and losers will be or the role tha

48、t policymakers can play in fostering inclusive growth driven by technological changes. Some degree of consensus exists about the potential large-scale impact of emerging technologies in both advanced and developing economies. However, each nation has a unique mix of economic structures and areas of

49、specialization. Its firmsparticipate in activities within global value chains and use technologies at varying levels of sophistication. As such, the impact of new technologies will differ in different countries and in their various economic sectors. For policymakers, the challenge is to understand the policy responses that are required to reap the benefits of new technologies, while anticipating any associated risks. To facilitate and accelerate Indonesias technological journey, it is crucial that we have sound information base