埃森哲：2020年半導體公司：在COVID9期間增強業務彈性 -埃森哲（英文版）（14頁）.pdf

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1、NOWNEXTWhat to do Now, What to do NextCovid-19: May 2020 Semiconductor Companies: Business Resilience in the Wake of COVID-19 A guide to the disruptive impacts & practical actions for semiconductor companies to take Were all in this together COVID-19 has turned into a global crisis, evolving at unpr

2、ecedented speed and scale. It is creating a universal imperative for governments and organizations to take immediate action to protect their people. It is now the biggest global eventand challengeof our lifetimes. As such, it is changing human attitudes and behaviors today and forcing organizations

3、to respond. However, the need to respond wont end when the viruss immediate threat eventually recedes. COVID-19s disruptive impacts are being felt in the near term and the full long- term impacts are still unknown. Companies are quickly needing to evaluate impacts on three fronts: supply chain, mark

4、et demand and workforce. Global supply chains have disrupted as the virus spreads across the globe bringing uncertainly over quarantine durations Product demand is shifting across ASICS, memory, sensors, etc. while consumer behavior changes rapidly and with future volatility Workforce is affected by

5、 stay-at-home orders and the uncertainly of how long business as usual will be suspended for No industry is immune to the impacts of COVID-19 , including the semiconductor industry. Overall, 2020 semiconductor revenue projection has been reduced by $55.0 billion, to $415.4 billion, and annual growth

6、 for 2020 has been reduced from 12.5% to 0.9%. Impact to semiconductor revenue projections for 2020 by end-use application: Smartphone: -12.5% PC & Tablet: -5.8% Automotive: -24.0% Server: +16.7% What this means for the semiconductor industry Gartner: Forecast Alert: 2020 Semiconductor Revenue Downg

7、raded by $55 Billion Due to COVID-19 Impact (26 Mar 2020) Resilience in semiconductors PHLX Semiconductor Index, 11.7% S&P500,-11.5% RESILIENCE IN SEMICONDUCTORS Semiconductor stocks showed resiliency, leading the recovery during the Great Recession of 2007-2009 and the subsequent year Philadelphia

8、Semiconductor Index (SOX) troughed in November 2008, while broader S&P500 troughed in early March 2009 Though the causes and reactions to COVID-19 may be different, semiconductor players are showing similar market signs (e.g. correlation convergence, P/E compression) and risk-aversion mentality as i

9、n 2008 Semiconductors are typically strong leading indicators of recovery, but the recovery speed and magnitude are dependent on contagion impact Recovery from COVID-19 will likely follow after several quarters of depressed results and be driven by future technology drivers, such as 5G 1 2 3 4 1 5 -

10、60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX)S&P500 Great Recession: 2007-2009 Nov 2008Mar 2009 2 Market Returns Source: Bloomberg Intelligence, Yahoo Finance Semiconductor companies have exhibited resilience in previous economic downturns How the crisis impacts semiconducto

11、rs SHORT-TERM IMPACT MID/LONG- TERM IMPACT SUPPLY DISRUPTIONDEMAND DISRUPTIONWORKFORCE IMPACT More robust WFH and “elastic workforce” capabilities Many employees will value enhanced flexibility of WFH options Fast and massive shift to WFH required Rise in the need for employee and employer workforce

12、 flexibility and remote working tools Extended period of social distancing and “shelter in place” impacts employee morale Slowdown in production by Auto OEMs resulting in demand variation Surge in demand for cloud/datacenter services, WFH products (ex: smart home devices, laptops, etc.), and medical

13、 devices Reduction in demand for mobile phones and consumer electronics, driven by loss of income and stay-at-home orders Chip fabrication resilience given cleanroom environments Labor intensive OSAT operations disrupted given travel restrictions Shortages of critical components/materials given glob

14、al supply chains and varying impacts and timing of COVID globally Logistics delays and challenges have given impact to transport Economic stimulus expected to bolster consumer spending, bringing demand levels back Accelerated demand for cloud and infrastructure to support distributed workforce Inves

15、tment in digital supply chain and control tower capabilities to improve supply network agility Ramped up factory automation will reduce impact that labor shortages have on supply Shifting consumer priorities and buying patterns given economic uncertainty FavorableNegativeMixed/ NeutralIMPACT Product

16、 roadmap uncertainty, changes to product schedules and go-to-market strategies Further diversified supply chains across suppliers and locationseliminating choke points Lower than expected auto sell-through in distribution channels and order push outs Demand disruption: What to expect in each subsect

17、or SHORT- TERM IMPACT MID/LONG -TERM IMPACT CONSUMERAUTOMOTIVE Consumer sentiment on immediate needs given reduced mobility impacting vehicle sales Slowdown in production by Auto OEMs resulting in demand variation Strong datacenter and PC demand given WFH and study from home Lower demand for mobile

18、phones and consumer electronics fueled by workforce loss of income and quarantines Decrease in demand for consumer and small business systems Planned ramp and consumer adoption of 5G unlikely to change Lower than expected sell- through in distribution channels and order push outs COMPUTING & STORAGE

19、 Accelerated demand for cloud and infrastructure to support distributed workforce Strong demand in certain smart home categories (security, smart speaker) and consumer health Surge in medical devices as global supply chains pivot Reduction in capital budgets and delays in planned projects NETWORK &

20、COMMUNICATIONS Greater bandwidth demand and increase in data center upgrades due to growing online presence (WFH, streaming, etc.) Public perception of data infrastructure as an essential utility (e.g. work from home) Uncertainty in post crisis buying patterns given pent up demand coupled with econo

21、mic fears Consumer priorities and buying patterns given the economic uncertainty Accelerated demand for smart manufacturing to enable more digital workforce Planned ramp of 5G remains highly visible and a national priority Rapidly changing consumer demand patterns given immediate vs. long term needs

22、 IOT & INDUSTRIAL FavorableNegativeMixed/ NeutralIMPACT Supply disruption: Understanding the many layers To address the effects of disruptions like COVID-19, companies should recognize the unique characteristics and capabilities of each step in the direct manufacturing process, and how their global

23、supply bases are impacted. Further, companies should look beyond their immediate supply base and comprehend staggered disruptions to indirect components and suppliers as COVID-19 spreads. Finally, companies should consider the relationship between these products and services as well as the shifting

24、customer requirements to serve their broad array of unique needs. Semiconductor companies operate in a complex ecosystem, working across the value chain with numerous raw material, assembly, test, package and equipment suppliers and partners globally. CUSTOMERS Direct OSAT Assembly Test SBT FAB Foun

25、dries IDMs EDS/Probe Indirect Substrates Probe Cards Raw Materials Reticles Semiconductor MFG Equipment ATE/Benches Test Filters Raw SiliconPCB Eval. HW Customer Distribution Logistics Segments Critical Needs Channels Marketing & Sales ELASTIC COLLABORATION Rapidly deploy and scale collaboration too

26、ls across the organizations to work with customers, suppliers and partners. SEAMLESS NETWORKING Enable reliable and secure remote network connectivity to employees homes and standardize ways of integrating this technology with customers and partners. CULTURE AND ADOPTION Given the globality and comp

27、lexity of the semiconductor supply chain, many companies already have distributed workforce tools and capabilities in place around the globe that the workforce is familiar with. Workforce impact and enablement: Semiconductor companies ahead of the curve 8 RELIABLE SECURITY With IP protection top-of-

28、 mind, enable appropriate security measures for virtual work environments. Automate with endpoint management detection and response, and deploy supporting business processes. VIRTUAL WORK ENVIRONMENT Evaluate network requirements, accelerate device deployment and scale virtual environments to suppor

29、t increased mobile/WFH demand. Key actions: A holistic plan PHASES SUPPLY CHAIN DEMAND ELASTIC WORKFORCE TRIAGE & PRIORITIZE SENSE & RECONFIGURE SCALE & MAINTAIN “War room” mindset Understand and quantify exposurepush and pull in manufacturing accordingly Understand direct and indirect supply networ

30、ks and conduct scenario-modeling Enable multi-source strategy with geographic diversity Leverage past supply disruptions to enable business continuity plans (earthquakes, tsunami) Diversify supply chain to mitigate dependencies on specific countries Update and maintain business continuity planning I

31、nvest in smart manufacturing capabilities and expand remote access capabilities, particularly in OSATs Analyze shifts in product demand volumes and revise product schedules to meet immediate needs Prioritize supply and sales efforts to high priority/value/critical demand AI-supported cash and workin

32、g capital management Improve demand planning and scenario modelling capabilities Data-driven demand segmentation understand customer shifts as a result of COVID-19 Explore alternative revenue streams (aaS, subscription) Expand into ecosystem solutions to bring demand planning and technology portfoli

33、o planning together Assess current collaboration/WFH technology and ability to scale Create technology, communications, and change plan to deploy at speed Deploy current and new technologies to support elastic workforce Execute new ways of working and collaboration at all levels of company Permanent

34、ly change ways of collaborating and working Create a more elastic workforce, especially in field services and customer support “There is significant uncertainty around the impact from the coronavirus on handset demand and supply chain. Based on the information we have at this time, we are widening a

35、nd reducing the low end of our guidance range. We remain in active contact with our employees, customers and suppliers as we continue to monitor the situation.” Akash Palkhiwala, CFO - Qualcomm Q1 Earnings Transcript, February 5 “Broadcoms supply chain was not impacted to any “meaningful level” due

36、to the outbreak, but there was a slowdown in demand. There is no doubt COVID-19 has created a high level of uncertainty, which we cant help but think is going to have an impact on our semiconductor business, in particular, in the second half of the fiscal year,” Hok Tan, CEO - Reuters, March 12 “Our

37、 second-half revenue is about flattish or may decline slightly, CFO Wendell Huang, citing what the company saw as a temporary impact on demand from the coronavirus, which TSMC expects to be stabilized by June. Huang said the coronavirus was expected to hit demand for electronics, including smartphon

38、es, but it would be balanced by continued fifth generation (5G) mobile communication technology deployment and strong demand for faster chips.” - Reuters, April 16 “Samsung Austin Semiconductor currently has no plans to close its Austin fabrication plant. The health and safety of our employees are t

39、he highest priority. In technology, fabrication is a part of the computer chip manufacturing process. Because the process requires facilities to be completely uncontaminated, employees who work inside the fabrication plant will have protection from infection,” said company spokeswoman Michele Glaze.

40、 Statesman News, March 18 “Until now the COVID-19 outbreak has had a limited impact on ASMLs manufacturing capability. Also, from a customer point of view, we have not seen a reduction in the demand for our systems this year. However, three COVID-19 related effects have impacted our Q1 financial res

41、ults. We expect the revenue that we were not able to recognize for Q1 as a result of the issues listed above, to shift to Q2 and Q3 of this year.” - Peter Wennink, President and CEO - Press Release, March 30 Perspectives from industry leaders “We have significant manufacturing operations in the U.S.

42、, Ireland, Israel, China, Malaysia, and Vietnam There is considerable uncertainty regarding such measures and potential future measures, and restrictions or disruptions of transportation could limit our capacity to meet customer demand and have a material adverse effect on our financial condition an

43、d results of operations.” - Intel SEC Filing 424B5 Prospectus, March 20 Contact us 11 Syed Alam Managing Director Semiconductor Industry, Global Lead Sam Baker Managing Director Semiconductor Industry, China Guido Dhert Managing Director Semiconductor Industry, Europe Deb Garand Managing Director Se

44、miconductor Industry, North America Hideaki Munakata Managing Director Semiconductor Industry, Japan Timothy Chu Senior Manager Semiconductor Industry, North America COVID-19: Mitigating the impact in the High Tech industry Human resilience: What your people need during COVID-19 COVID-19: Navigating

45、 the human and business impact COVID-19: Responsive customer service in times of change Productivity in uncertain times through the Elastic Digital Workplace Building supply chain resilience: What to do now and next during COVID-19 Further reading To help our clients navigate both the human and busi

46、ness impact of COVID-19, weve created a hub of all of our latest thinking on a variety of topics. Each topic highlights specific actions which can be taken now, and what to consider next as industries move towards a new normal. From leadership essentials to ensuring productivity for your employees a

47、nd customer service groups to building supply chain resilience and much more, our hub will be constantly updated. Check back regularly for more insights. VISIT OUR HUB HERE Copyright 2020 Accenture. All rights reserved. DISCLAIMER: This document is intended for general informational purposes only an

48、d does not take into account the readers specific circumstances, and may not reflect the most current developments. Accenture disclaims, to the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, any and all liability for the accuracy and completeness of the information in this presentation and for any acts

49、 or omissions made based on such information. Accenture does not provide legal, regulatory, audit, or tax advice. Readers are responsible for obtaining such advice from their own legal counsel or other licensed professionals. This document makes reference to marks owned by third parties. All such third-party marks are the property of their respective owners. No sponsorship, endorsement or approval of this content by the owners of such marks is intended, expressed or implied. Copyright 2020 Accenture All rights reserved. Ac