萊坊：《上海工業市場報告》報告2018Q3(7頁).pdf

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1、SHANGHAI INduStrIAl MArket report Q3 2018 上海工業市場季度報告 2018 年第三季度 RESEARCH 研究報告 32 RESEARCHSHAngHAi induStRiAl MARKEt REPORt Q3 2018 -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 Q2/11 Q3/11 Q4/11 Q1/12

2、Q2/12 Q3/12 Q4/12 Q1/13 Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 growth rate % RMB/sqm/day Logistics rent (left)Q-o-Q growth rate (right) According to China Federation of Logistics Utilised FDI achieved US$4.3

3、83 billion, a decrease of 5.2% Y-o-Y. Due to land scarcity, we expect that logistics warehouse rents will grow steadily with an increase of 3% to 4% quarter on quarter (Q-o-Q); industrial factory rents will increase by 2% to 3% Q-o-Q in a year. Since many logistics warehouses are to be delivered in

4、the fourth quarter (Q4), the vacancy rate of logistics warehouse will increase slightly to 9%. loGIStICS propertIeS Source: knight Frank research eNterING tHe trAdItIoNAl oFF-SeASoN, tHe loGIStICS propertY MArket SeeN doMINAted BY WAIt-ANd-See plAYerS As the traditional off-season occurs in the thir

5、d quarter (Q3), various macro- economic indicators saw growth slowdown and the market witnessed fewer new leases in the industrial property market. rents of logistics warehouse and industrial factory remained stable. FIGure 1 Average rent and Q-o-Q growth rate of logistics warehouse properties, Q3 2

6、018 stricter, making some potential occupiers adopt wait-and-see attitude or choose to lease warehouses outside Shanghai. Therefore, Shanghai logistics warehouse rent in Q3 remained unchanged over the last quarter at RMB1.55 per sqm per day. The vacancy rate of logistics warehouse also stayed flat a

7、t 8%. On the supply side, several logistics facilities will be completed by the end of 2018. For example, ESR, the logistics property developer, will have its logistics facilities next to Pudong International Airport added to the market, with approximately 100,000 sqm. ESR Shanghai Qingpu Logistics

8、Park will be completed in Q4 with a land area of 63,365 sqm and a total gross floor area (GFA) of 92,803 sqm. 54 RESEARCHSHAngHAi induStRiAl MARKEt REPORt Q3 2018 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 MinhangPudongSongjiangQingpuJinshanJiadingFengxian million RMB/mu The low season of industrial factory market

9、 also occurs in Q3, with the average rent for single-floor factory space remained unchanged Q-o-Q at RMB1.22 per sqm per day. In Q3, in terms of districts, industrial factory rents of Minhang and Pudong districts were the highest, reaching RMB1.49 per sqm per day and 1.35 per sqm per day respectivel

10、y. Qingpu and Fengxian districts came in third and fourth with the factory rents at RMB1.28 per sqm per day and 1.26 per sqm per day respectively. The factory rent in Jinshan district was relatively low, reaching approximately RMB1.0 per sqm per day. In Q3 2018, new factory projects were launched in

11、 Jinshan and Qingpu districts. In Shanghai (Jinshan) International Industrial Park (Phase l) Project, with a total new factory space of approximately 100,000 sqm completed. With the total investment of RMB410 million, the project has thirteen buildings, including two single-floor standard factories,

12、 three two- storey standard factories, four three-storey standard factories and one four-storey mixed-use building. Each building has factory space of 6,500 sqm to 19,000 sqm. Those factories will be handed over by the end of 2018. In Qingpu Industrial Park, a multiple-storey factory project was com

13、pleted with a total factory space of approximately 30,000 sqm, comprising six detached buildings, including one five-storey main office building and five 4.2-metre high workshops. In Q3, the influx of both domestic and international manufacturing enterprises has driven up demand for industrial facto

14、ries. On 10 July, Tesla signed the investment FACtorIeS -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 Q2/11 Q3/11 Q4/11 Q1/12 Q2/12 Q3/12 Q4/12 Q1/13 Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15

15、 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 growth rate % RMB/sqm/day Factory Rent (left)Q-o-Q growth rate (right) Source: knight Frank research FIGure 2 Average rent and Q-o-Q growth rate of single-floor factories, Q3 2018 contract for electric vehicles with

16、 Shanghai Lingang Management Committee and Lingang Group. On 17 October, Tesla China announced that it acquired an industrial land in Lingang Area for RMB973 million with a total site area of 864,885 sqm. Tesla set up Shanghai Gigafactory with an annual capacity of 500,000 vehicles in Lingang Area.

17、This is the largest foreign-invested manufacturing project in Shanghais history. Tesla has also become the first foreign owned company which built factories after China loosened the restrictions on foreign- invested shares in auto industry. On 19 October, SAIC Volkswagen New Energy Vehicle Plant sta

18、rted construction in Anting, Shanghai with a total investment of RMB17 billion and a land area of 405,600 sqm. Scheduled to commence operation in 2020 with an annual capacity of 300,000 vehicles, SAIC Volkswagen New Energy Vehicle Plant is SAIC Volkswagens first attempt to build for the production o

19、f MEB electric vehicles. The entry of these automobile producers will entice more automobile component manufacturers, boosting the demand for industrial factories. In Q3, the primary industrial land market of Shanghai was active with 23 industrial plots being traded, with a total land area of 958,59

20、7 sqm. The traded plots and land area decreased 4.2% and 16.5% Q-o-Q respectively. Most land was concentrated in Pudong and Songjiang districts. Pudong led the market in traded land area, reaching 385,196.6 sqm. Songjiang came in second with the traded land area of 173,698.5 sqm. In the number of tr

21、aded plots, Jiading District led the market with traded plots reaching six, accounting for 26% of the total figures in Shanghai. Songjiang, Minhang and Jinshan districts ranked the second with traded plots reaching four, accounting for 17% of the total figures in Shanghai, respectively. On 30 July,

22、Xiuzheng Biopharmaceutical (Shanghai) Company Limited acquired an industrial land-Plot V-49-1 in Songjiang Industrial Zone for RMB203 million, with a land area of 133,092.9 sqm, showing Xiuzheng Groups attempt to develop an international pharmaceutical manufacturing base focusing on biopharmaceutica

23、l in Songjiang. In terms of sales price, Minhang District again recorded the highest average industrial land price in Q3, reaching RMB1.14 million per mu (1 mu=666.7 sqm). Pudong New Area secured the second place with a unit price of RMB0.97 million per mu. Fengxians land price was relatively low, r

24、eaching RMB0.35 million per mu. SAleS ANd INVeStMeNt lANd MArket FIGure 4 Primary industrial land price by district, Q3 2018 Source: Shanghai planning and land resource Bureau, knight Frank research FIGure 3 Transacted area of primary industrial land by district, Q3 2018 In recent years, Qingpu Indu

25、strial Park, together with Liando Group through strategic cooperation, is devoted to the redevelopment of industrial lands and supporting the transformation and upgrading of the industrial park. In Q3, Liando purchased Qingpu Industrial Project from Shitong Group for RMB165 million, with a land area

26、 of 45,000 sqm and a total GFA of approximately 17,000 sqm. Due to its operational strategy adjustment, Shitong Group decided to completely leave the Chinese market in 2017. Liando U Valley, as a strategic partner of Qingpu government, took over Shitong Project and intended to create artificial inte

27、lligence (AI) industrialized bases and clusters of intelligent manufacturing industry with an estimated production of RMB500 million. The transaction process of the investment project lasted for a year and were finally closed in Q3 2018. Many logistics facility investors were optimistic towards the

28、growth in both consumption and e-commerce business, and remained confident in high-quality logistics properties. On 9 July, Vanke Logistics Development Company Limited acquired Swire Cold Chain Logistics from Swire Pacific for RMB291 million, covering main cities in China (including Shanghai, Guangz

29、hou), and thus owned a large number of logistics facilities and warehouses. The acquisition symbolises Vanke Logisticss further expansion in cold chain business. On 18 August, 56PINGTAI, an internet platform focusing on the highway logistics industry in China, signed a comprehensive strategic cooper

30、ation contract with Vailog Group, one of the largest industrial property developers in Europe and the largest logistics facility supplier in Italy to set up the logistics property fund of RMB5 billion, which will be used for the development of new ecological road ports to enforce the development of

31、highway logistics in China. After the achievement of full privatisation at the beginning of 2018, GLP has continuously expanded its business in the Chinese market by setting up a logistics fund and signing the strategic cooperation contracts with other partners, and paid special attention on the dev

32、elopment of logistics technology. On 11 September, GLP announced its new fund jointly set up with GIC. With a total amount of US$2 billion, the fund will be used for the acquisition of logistics properties with steady profits in China. GLP China will serve as the asset manager of the fund. 18% 8% 12

33、% 2% 7% 40% 13% Songjiang Minhang Jinshan Qingpu Fengxian Pudong Jiading Source: Shanghai planning and land resource Bureau, knight Frank research In terms of transacted land size, most single land plots were under 5 hectares, accounting for 82% of the total transactions in Q3. Single land plots of

34、between 1-5 hectares contributed the most, amounting to 65% of the total. Three land plots of over 8 hectares for each were traded, two of which were located in Pudong New Area while the remaining one was located in Songjiang District, amounting to 13% of the total. 7 研究報告上海工業市場季度報告 2018年第三季度 6 2018

35、年9月份，中國制造業采購經理指數 （pMI） 為50.8%， 比上月回落0.5個百分 點，制造業總體延續擴張態勢，增長速度 有所放緩。 第三季度，本市規模以上工業企業完成工 業總產值人民幣8,753.41億元，比去年同 期下降1.7%。其中，9月份規模以上企業 完成工業總產值人民幣3,033.96億元，比 去年同月下降3.4%。 六個重點工業行業共完成工業總產值人民幣 17,494.48億元，比去年同期增長1.8%， 呈現四升兩降的態勢。其中，電子信息產 品制造業和精品鋼材制造業分別同比下降 1%和7%；汽車制造業、石油化工及精細 化工制造業、成套設備制造業和生物醫藥 制造業則分別同比增長4.

36、7%、0.8%、 3.2%及9.5%。 第三季度，上海簽訂外商直接投資合同項 目1,527個，同比增長82%。簽訂外商直接 投資合同金額同比增長24.8%至121.19億 美金；實際到位金額43.83億美金，同比下 降5.2%。 考慮到土地資源的稀缺性，我們預計未來 一年的物流倉儲租金將保持平穩上升，環 比增幅在3%-4%左右；工業廠房的租金將 繼續上揚，環比增幅在2%-3%左右。由于 第四季度有數個物流倉庫竣工交付，物流 倉儲的空置率將微升至9%。 進入傳統淡季， 物流地產 市場觀望氣氛明顯 第三季度是工業地產市場的傳統淡季， 各項宏觀指數 增幅減緩， 成交偏淡， 物流地產和工業廠房的租金水

37、平 基本保持穩定， 未見明顯上漲。 Factory Project in Jiangsu Changzhou Economic Zone for Lease proJeCt pArtICulArS tABle 1 Project summary Property NameJiangsu Qishuyan railway transportation Industrial park Locationthe intersection of longjin road and dongcheng road, on lucheng Street Site Areaapprox. 162,355 sqm

38、Gross Floor Area (GFA) #1 Building: 12,130.91 sqm #2 Building: 14,905.55 sqm #3-#6 Building: 11,622.67 sqm for each #7 Building: 13,775.48 sqm #8 Building: 46,275.38 sqm #9 Building: 17,266.2 sqm #10-#11 Building: 5,876.44 sqm for each Basementapprox. 800 car parking lots lifestyle facilities, such

39、as caf and F&B services, are under planning No of Storeys#1-#6/#10-#11 Building: Four storeys #7 Building: Five storeys #8 Building: eleven storeys #9 Building: three storeys Property Rightsthe basement and the above-ground buildings belong to the Adminis- trative Committee of Jiangsu Changzhou econ

40、omic Zone. The project is located to the north of Jiangsu Changzhou Economic Zone, at the intersection of Longjin Road and Dongcheng Road, on Lucheng Street. It is situated at the border of Tianning and Wujin Districts. Thanks to the excellent location of Jiangsu Changzhou Economic Zone, the transpo

41、rtation is convenient. The project is located about 10 km from the city centre and close to Hurong Expressway/ (G42) Hengshanqiao Exit and Changhe Expressway/(S38) Qishuyan Exit. The project is located about 10 minutes driving distance from Qishuyan Railway Station, 20 minutes driving distance from

42、Changzhou Railway Station and next to Changzhou Liu Guojun Vocational Technology College. Jiangsu Changzhou Economic Zone has superior development potential and location advantages. The subject project is surrounded by well-known enterprises including Nidec Corporation, Bombardier Inc., CRRC Qishuya

43、n Locomotive Company Limited, NKT Cables. The project is recommended for manufacturing, research and development (R&D) uses. 98 研究報告上海工業市場季度報告 2018年第三季度 -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 Q2

44、/11 Q3/11 Q4/11 Q1/12 Q2/12 Q3/12 Q4/12 Q1/13 Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 環比漲幅 % 人民幣/平方米/天 物流倉儲租金（左軸）環比漲幅（右軸） 根據中國物流與采購聯合會物流運行數據 顯示，前三季度，全社會物流總額為人 民幣204.1萬億元，同比增長6.7%，增速 比上半年和去年同期相比回落0.2個百分 點。中國物流

45、業景氣指數第三季度平均為 51.6%，較今年上半年均值回落2.3個百 分點。 鋼鐵、煤炭等大宗商品物流需求增速難有 明顯改善，而與民生相關的電商物流、快 遞速運、冷鏈、醫藥、汽車等物流需求和 一體化物流、供應鏈管理等高端物流業態 有望保持快速增長。 第三季度通常是物流交易的淡季，此外， 政府對物流項目審批更加嚴格，開發商及 投資者只能通過獲取二手工業用地，才能 進行開發物流項目，并且物流項目在注冊 及稅收方面的要求更趨嚴格，致使一部分 潛在租戶不得不保持觀望態度或選擇上海 以外的區域進行倉庫租賃。因此，第三季 度上海物流倉儲地產的租金保持在每天每 平方米人民幣1.55元，與上季度持平，物 流倉

46、庫的空置率也保持不變在8%的水平。 三季度一般是工業廠房市場的淡季，因此本 季度上海工業單層廠房平均租金環比保持不 變，仍為每天每平方米人民幣1.22元。 第三季度，從區域來看，工業廠房租金最 高的區域為閔行和浦東，日租金分別達到 每天每平方米人民幣1.49元和1.35元。位 列第三第四的分別是青浦和奉賢，其廠 房租金分別為每天每平方米人民幣1.28和 1.26元。金山區的廠房租金相對較低，約 為每天每平方米人民幣1.0元。 2018年第三季度，在金山、青浦等區都有 新增廠房面積入市。上海（金山）國際中 小企業產業園（一期）項目有約100,000平 方米的新建廠房面積竣工交付，該項目總 投資人

47、民幣4.1億元，項目包含建筑單體共 13棟，其中單層標準廠房2棟，2層標準廠 房3棟，3層標準廠房4棟，還有一棟4層綜 合樓，每棟廠房面積6,500平方米至19,000 平方米不等，年底前可以入駐。青浦工業 區內有約30,000平方米的多層廠房項目竣 工交付，這一項目共有6棟單體建筑，其中 一棟為5層主辦公樓，其余5棟為層高4.2米 的車間。 第三季度，不斷涌入的國內外生產制造企 業推動了對于工業廠房的需求。7月10日， 特斯拉公司與上海臨港管委會、臨港集團 資料來源：萊坊研究部 物流地產廠房 圖一 物流倉儲物業平均租金及環比漲幅，2018年第三季度 供應方面，數個物流設施預計將在2018年

48、年底前竣工交付。例如，物流地產開發商 易商紅木在浦東機場旁邊將有約100,000 平方米的物流設施投入市場。并且，易尚 共同簽署了純電動車項目投資協議。10月 17日，特斯拉中國發布公告稱，特斯拉公 司以人民幣9.73億元收購上海臨港一工業 用地，總出讓面積為864,885平方米。特斯 拉上海超級工廠正式落戶上海臨港，該項 目規劃年生產50萬輛純電動整車，是上海 有史以來最大的外資制造業項目，特斯拉 也正式成為中國放寬汽車行業外資股比限 制后第一家獨資建廠的外資企業。 10月19日， 上汽大眾新能源工廠在上海安亭 正式開工， 總投資達人民幣170億元， 占地面 積405,600平方米。 計劃于

49、2020年建成投產， 規劃年產能30萬輛， 這是大眾汽車首個專為 MeB純電動車型生產而新建設的汽車工廠 。 這些整車廠房的進入也會帶動相關汽車零部 件進入市場，同時催生這些相關汽車產業對 于工業廠房的需求。 紅木上海青浦物流園將于第四季度竣工交 付，該物流園區占地63,365平方米，建筑 面積為92,803平方米。 資料來源：萊坊研究部 圖二 單層廠房平均租金及環比漲幅，2018年第三季度 -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 Q2/11 Q3/11 Q4/11 Q1/12 Q2/12 Q3/12 Q4/12 Q1/13 Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 環比漲幅 % 人民幣/平方米/天 廠房租金（左軸）環比漲幅（右軸） 1110 研究報告上海工業市場季度報