SCOR 選擇定價和反選擇定價.pdf

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1、SINGAPORE ACTUARIAL CONFERENCE 202426-29 August 2024Avoid filling this space with text,will not be seen by audiencePricing for Selection and Anti-SelectionBen RandallHead of Pricing,South EastAsiaSCOR27thAugust 2024SINGAPORE ACTUARIAL CONFERENCE 202426-29 August 2024Selection and Anti-SelectionINSUR

2、ERINSURERUnderwritingSum AssuredOther Selective ControlsSales ChannelPolicy WordingSINGAPORE ACTUARIAL CONFERENCE 202426-29 August 2024The Right BalanceThis presentation objectives:Inform&share Opine Developfor the Singapore actuarial communitySINGAPORE ACTUARIAL CONFERENCE 202426-29 August 2024Agen

3、da:Low concern examplesUnderwriting changes Medium concern/impactGender-neutral pricingEmbedding selective benefits Major concern/impactUS Post-Level Term Methodologies and strategies Looking to the future Question timeSINGAPORE ACTUARIAL CONFERENCE 202426-29 August 2024NML ChangeRisk meterNo/minor

4、market =deviationRisk meterRisk meterPriceable with low anti-selection riskMarket deviation =(first mover)Priceable with moderate anti-selection riskSINGAPORE ACTUARIAL CONFERENCE 202426-29 August 2024UW rating scale change-UK%mixExtra ratingBMI80%-=2813%-29-324%+50%33-342%+100%35-361%+150-300%37+%m

5、ixExtra ratingBMI80%-=2813%+25%29-324%+50%33-342%+100%35-361%+150-300%37+Expected gave 4.25%discountBefore%mixExtra ratingBMI87%-All forms of customers insurance now must be priced gender-neutralSINGAPORE ACTUARIAL CONFERENCE 202426-29 August 2024EU/UK gender-neutral pricingKey expected impacts for

6、UK life insuranceFACTORShock lapseFuture gendermixOUTCOMEWHY+2%lapses for lessthan 3 monthsNormalisedwithin 1 yearLevel premium structureShort time windowFew simple-issue productsCommission-clawback for advisersLack of comparabilityPurchase ismore needs-basedRisk meterRisk meterSINGAPORE ACTUARIAL C

7、ONFERENCE 202426-29 August 2024Embedding selective benefitsNotes:Source:SCOR dataInpatientOutpatientPrice+10-20%Maternity(optional)InpatientOutpatientMaternity(embedded)“Population”pregnancy rate=1.5%Priced rate=3-5%InpatientOutpatientInpatientOutpatientMaternity(embedded)Optional designEmbedded des

8、ignLow planMid planHigh planSINGAPORE ACTUARIAL CONFERENCE 202426-29 August 2024How did it go?Notes:Source:SCOR dataInpatientOutpatientPrice+10-20%Maternity(optional)InpatientOutpatientMaternity(embedded)“Population”pregnancy rate=1.5%Priced rate=3-5%Female%MaleVariants52%48%Low plan no maternity69%

9、31%Higher plans with maternityActual incidence rate=15%Experience 500%+vs.pricedIncreasing price creates vicious cycle of anti-selectionRisk meterSINGAPORE ACTUARIAL CONFERENCE 202426-29 August 2024US Post-Level Term mortalityNotes:Source:SOA reportRisk meter0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%123456789101112131

10、415Lapse rateUS PLT10-Lapses-2021 SoA reportPremiumLapsesLapses PLT0%50%100%150%200%250%300%7891011121314Mortality vs.Y6-10US PLT10-Mortality-2021 SoA reportD/M model 1D/M model 2S/S modelMortality experience PLTSINGAPORE ACTUARIAL CONFERENCE 202426-29 August 2024Basic methodologiesDescriptionMethod

11、Pure actuarial judgementWild GuessAttempted modelling,alternate data sources+significant judgementSophisticated Wild GuessLapsers are fully select in perpetuityShapiro/Snyder(S/S)Lapsers are fully select but with run-off over selection period to ultimateDukes/Macdonald(D/M)As D/M but with an additio

12、nal excess claims risk allowance since the remaining portfolio is now relatively worse,with this excess unwinding over a longer assumed periodBecker/Kitsos(B/K)For lapse/renewal anti-selectionSINGAPORE ACTUARIAL CONFERENCE 202426-29 August 2024ApplicationAxiomAvailability of an immediately comparabl

13、e option,e.g.cheaper products elsewhereComparabilityDifficulty for a customer to find,exercise or understandComplexityHow large the difference isHow many other products/competitors offerMagnitude of selective potentialHow long customers have to judge their decisionHow long the market deviation/compa

14、rable choice existsTime effectsCustomers looking to maximise value or other factors in decisionCustomer elasticityKnowledge of potential to anti-selectAssistance by sales channelAwarenessAxioms for assessingSINGAPORE ACTUARIAL CONFERENCE 202426-29 August 2024Selection and Anti-SelectionLooking to th

15、e future potential anti-selection in existing productsRisk meterRisk meterCOI charging structure in ILP/UL sustainabilityMultipay CI lapse experience post-claimSINGAPORE ACTUARIAL CONFERENCE 202426-29 August 2024UL/ILP sustainabilityRisk meter01002003004005006007008009001000-1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

16、5,000 6,0000510152025303540Premium unitsAccount Value unitsUL/ILP return sensitivityPremium paidPremium requiredAV(high return)AV(low return)Notes:Source:SCOR data-How sensitive to investment return?-Assessment of dynamic risk-Will anti-selective pricing models work here?SINGAPORE ACTUARIAL CONFEREN

17、CE 202426-29 August 2024Selection and Anti-SelectionQuestion timeSINGAPORE ACTUARIAL CONFERENCE 202426-29 August 2024DisclaimerThe views and opinions expressed by the presenter are personal and do not reflect the official stance of the company.The views attributed to SCOR presenters at this Conference including our speakers,do not necessarily reflect those of the company and are not an official view of SCOR.