國際運輸論壇：全球電動車轉型與二手車貿易報告（英文版）（51頁）.pdf

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1、Corporate Partnership BoardCPBNew but UsedThe Electric Vehicle Transition and the Global Second-hand Car Trade Corporate Partnership Board Report The International Transport Forum The International Transport Forum is an intergovernmental organisation with 66 member countries.It acts as a think tank

2、for transport policy and organises the Annual Summit of transport ministers.ITF is the only global body that covers all transport modes.The ITF is politically autonomous and administratively integrated with the OECD.The ITF works for transport policies that improve peoples lives.Our mission is to fo

3、ster a deeper understanding of the role of transport in economic growth,environmental sustainability and social inclusion and to raise the public profile of transport policy.The ITF organises global dialogue for better transport.We act as a platform for discussion and pre-negotiation of policy issue

4、s across all transport modes.We analyse trends,share knowledge and promote exchange among transport decision-makers and civil society.The ITFs Annual Summit is the worlds largest gathering of transport ministers and the leading global platform for dialogue on transport policy.The Members of the Foru

5、m are:Albania,Armenia,Argentina,Australia,Austria,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Belgium,Bosnia and Herzegovina,Brazil,Bulgaria,Cambodia,Canada,Chile,China(Peoples Republic of),Colombia,Costa Rica,Croatia,Czechia,Denmark,Estonia,Finland,France,Georgia,Germany,Greece,Hungary,Iceland,India,Ireland,Israel,Italy,Ja

6、pan,Kazakhstan,Korea,Latvia,Liechtenstein,Lithuania,Luxembourg,Malta,Mexico,Republic of Moldova,Mongolia,Montenegro,Morocco,the Netherlands,New Zealand,North Macedonia,Norway,Poland,Portugal,Romania,Russian Federation,Serbia,Slovak Republic,Slovenia,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Tunisia,Trkiye,Ukraine,th

7、e United Arab Emirates,the United Kingdom,the United States and Uzbekistan.About the Corporate Partnership Board The Corporate Partnership Board(CPB)is the International Transport Forums platform for engaging with the private sector and enriching global transport policy discussion with a business pe

8、rspective.The members of the ITF Corporate Partnership Board are:Airbus,Allianz Partners,Alstom,Amazon,Aramco,AutoCrypt,Bolt,Bosch,bp,Bolt,Bosch,CEiiA,Cruise,Enel,ExxonMobil,Hyundai,Iberdrola,Kakao Mobility,Michelin,Microsoft,Mott MacDonald,NXP,PTV Group,RATP Group,Rolls Royce,Shell,Siemens,TotalEne

9、rgies,Toyota,Trucknet,Uber,Valeo and Volvo Group.Disclaimer The ITF Corporate Partnership Board has provided funding for this work.This report is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the ITF.It has not been subject to the scrutiny of ITF or OECD member countries,and does no

10、t necessarily reflect their official views or those of the members of the Corporate Partnership Board.Cite this work as:ITF(2023),“New but Used:The Electric Vehicle Transition and the Global Second-hand Car Trade”,International Transport Forum Policy Papers,No.125,OECD Publishing,Paris.Acknowledgeme

11、nts This report was co-authored by Matteo Craglia and Andreas Kopf of the International Transport Forum(ITF).The report is based on original research and exchanges that took place during an expert workshop organised on 6 March 2023 with members of the ITF Corporate Partnership Board and external gue

12、sts.A workshop participant list is included at the end of this report.The authors would like to thank the following individuals for their contributions and insightful comments during the review process:Nicholas Caros(ITF),Pierpaolo Cazzola(University of California Davis),Aman Chitkara(Li-Cycle),Eliz

13、abeth Connelly(International Energy Agency,IEA),Rob de Jong(United Nations Environment Program,UNEP),Yunlin Fu(UNEP),Marietta Harjono(Netherlands Human Environment and Transport Inspectorate),Mathilde Huismans(IEA),Teo Lombardo(IEA),Arijit Sen(International Council for Clean Transportation,ICCT),Ale

14、xander Tankou(ICCT),Olivia Wessendorff(ITF),Elisabeth Windisch(ITF).The authors would also like to thank ITF colleagues Lauren Chester,Chris Wells and Michael Kloth for their assistance in copy-editing the report,Rachele Poggi and Xiaotong Zhang for data collection,and Sharon Masterson,who manages t

15、he activities of the ITF Corporate Partnership Board.TABLE OF CONTENTS 4 NEW BUT USED:THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE TRANSITION AND THE GLOBAL SECOND-HAND CAR TRADE OECD/ITF 2023 Table of contents Executive summaryExecutive summary .7 7 The global trade in used vehiclesThe global trade in used vehicles.9 9 Cu

16、rrent flows of used vehicles.9 The quality of used vehicle exports.11 Used vehicle trade:The current policy contextUsed vehicle trade:The current policy context .1414 Import restrictions.14 Fuel quality regulations.15 Export restrictions.15 The effects of restrictions on the used vehicle trade.16 Th

17、e industrial policy of used vehicle exportsThe industrial policy of used vehicle exports .2020 Expectations for Chinas rapid ascent in global second-hand exports.21 Modelling future changes in the origin of used vehicles.23 Exploring possible future scenarios of electric vehicle adoption in emerging

18、 economiesExploring possible future scenarios of electric vehicle adoption in emerging economies .2727 The impact of electrification on used vehicle exports:A case study of Norway.27 The transition to electric vehicles in developed economies.28 What will happen to old electric cars?.30 Reuse,replace

19、,recycle:Whats next?.32 Will electric vehicles make their way to emerging economies?.36 ReferencesReferences .4040 Appendix:MethodologyAppendix:Methodology.4444 Used vehicle flow data sources.44 Dataset comparison.46 Forecasting vehicle stocks.47 Regional groupings.49 Workshop attendance listWorksho

20、p attendance list .5050 TABLE OF CONTENTS NEW BUT USED:THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE TRANSITION AND THE GLOBAL SECOND-HAND CAR TRADE OECD/ITF 2023 5 Figures Figure 1.Simplified flowchart of global vehicle Figure 1.Simplified flowchart of global vehicle flows.flows.1010 Figure 2.Flows of used vehicles from ex

21、porter regions to importer regions in 2019Figure 2.Flows of used vehicles from exporter regions to importer regions in 2019 .1111 Figure 3.Age of vehicle imports for selected countriesFigure 3.Age of vehicle imports for selected countries .1212 Figure 4.The value of exported cars from the United Sta

22、tes(2008Figure 4.The value of exported cars from the United States(2008-2021)to selected 2021)to selected marketsmarkets .1313 Figure 5.UnderFigure 5.Under-reporting of used vehicle trade:Differences between importer and exporter datareporting of used vehicle trade:Differences between importer and e

23、xporter data .1616 Figure 6.Global used vehicle exports by Euro standard equivalentFigure 6.Global used vehicle exports by Euro standard equivalent.1818 Figure 7.New vehicle sales,used exports and outFigure 7.New vehicle sales,used exports and outflowflows of passenger cars in selected vehicle s of

24、passenger cars in selected vehicle manufacturing countriesmanufacturing countries .2121 Figure 8.Global Figure 8.Global forecast of vehicle stock outflows by region of originforecast of vehicle stock outflows by region of origin .2424 Figure 9.Modelled export of used vehicles by region of originsFig

25、ure 9.Modelled export of used vehicles by region of origins .2525 Figure 10.Estimated passenger car stock for selected regions with significant used imports Figure 10.Estimated passenger car stock for selected regions with significant used imports by region of originby region of origin .2626 Figure

26、11.Vehicle imports and exports by powertrain in Norway from 1990Figure 11.Vehicle imports and exports by powertrain in Norway from 1990-20222022 .2828 Figure 12.Estimated passenger car stock for selected vehicle exporting regions by powertrainFigure 12.Estimated passenger car stock for selected vehi

27、cle exporting regions by powertrain .2929 Figure 13.Estimated stock outflow cumulated from all major exporting regions by powertrain typeFigure 13.Estimated stock outflow cumulated from all major exporting regions by powertrain type .3030 Figure 14.Flow diagram of the whereabouts of electric vehicle

28、s/batteries that have reached Figure 14.Flow diagram of the whereabouts of electric vehicles/batteries that have reached their end of life in developed economiestheir end of life in developed economies .3232 Figure 15.Modelled passenger car stock by powertrain and origin for the Middle East and Figu

29、re 15.Modelled passenger car stock by powertrain and origin for the Middle East and North Africa(MENA)and SubNorth Africa(MENA)and Sub-Saharan AfricaSaharan Africa .3838 Figure 16.Electric vehicle share in the passenger car stock in SubFigure 16.Electric vehicle share in the passenger car stock in S

30、ub-Saharan Africa under Saharan Africa under different different probabilities of exportprobabilities of export .3939 Figure 17Figure 17.Used vehicle exports:comparison of Eurostat and national sourcesUsed vehicle exports:comparison of Eurostat and national sources .4646 Figure 18Figure 18.Used vehi

31、cle imports:comparison of Eurostat and national sourcesUsed vehicle imports:comparison of Eurostat and national sources .4747 Table Table 1.Data sources of used vehicle imports/exportsTable 1.Data sources of used vehicle imports/exports .4444 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS 6 NEW BUT USED:THE ELECTRIC VE

32、HICLE TRANSITION AND THE GLOBAL SECOND-HAND CAR TRADE OECD/ITF 2023 Abbreviations and acronyms BEV Battery electric vehicle BMS Battery management systems EV Electric vehicle FCEV Fuel cell electric vehicle HEV Hybrid electric vehicle ICEV Internal combustion engine vehicle SOH State of health Gloss

33、ary Vehicle stock Also known as the“vehicle fleet”,it refers to the total number of all vehicles that are currently registered and in operation within this country or a region.Vehicles are added to the national vehicle stock through new sales and used car imports,and vehicles leave the national stoc

34、k through exports and car scrappage.Stock outflows Refers to the cars that leave a stock,either through export or scrappage.The total number of outflows is the sum of exports and scrapped cars.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY NEW BUT USED:THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE TRANSITION AND THE GLOBAL SECOND-HAND CAR TRADE OECD/IT

35、F 2023 7 Executive summary Key messages 1.Emerging economies need EVsEmerging economies need EVs:They will depend on imported second-hand electric vehicles to decarbonise.Developed countries should not limit exports of EVs to emerging markets.2.Exporting countries are changing:Exporting countries ar

36、e changing:Exports of used cars from China are rising steeply.Used vehicle exports from China to emerging economies may overtake those of all OECD countries combined in the next ten years.3.Track the tradeTrack the trade:Used vehicle exports are underreported.Authorities must do more to track them t

37、o ensure environmental regulations can be enforced.Main findings Approximately one-quarter of the worlds population lives in countries where at least half of the cars are imported used cars.Most of these are poorer countries that import second-hand vehicles from developed economies because they are

38、cheap.Many of these imported vehicles are old and in poor condition,endangering humans and the environment.Approximately a quarter of cars imported by emerging economies in 2023 will have low emissions standards(Euro 3 or lower).Restrictions on importing and exporting highly polluting vehicles could

39、 improve the quality of cars sent to emerging economies and bring significant benefits at minimal cost.Historically,the major exporters of used vehicles to emerging economies have been Europe,Japan,Korea and North America.However,China is set to become a major exporter,too,following a 2019 governmen

40、t announcement to allow used car exports for the first time.If Chinas used vehicle exports grow to a similar proportion as Japan and Korea,which export over one-third of deregistered vehicles,Chinese exports could reach 8 million vehicles per year.Even in a moderate scenario,Chinese used car exports

41、 to emerging economies would equal those of all OECD countries combined.The transition to electric vehicles will dramatically affect the international trade in used vehicles.As developed economies switch to electric vehicles,unwanted combustion engine vehicles are being exported in ever-greater numb

42、ers to emerging economies,which could undercut their own shift to electric vehicles.For the foreseeable future,exports of electric cars to emerging economies will remain marginal compared to those of petrol-and diesel-powered vehicles.The widespread availability of unwanted conventional cars in thes

43、e countries,along with a lack of charging infrastructure,means demand for electric vehicles will take time to materialise.Additionally,exporter countries of electric vehicles will likely prefer to retain control of valuable end-of-use batteries for potential second-life applications or local recycli

44、ng.THE GLOBAL TRADE IN USED VEHICLES 8 NEW BUT USED:THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE TRANSITION AND THE GLOBAL SECOND-HAND CAR TRADE OECD/ITF 2023 Unless developed economies help to accelerate the transition to electric vehicles beyond the developed world,vehicle electrification levels in emerging economies suc

45、h as those in Sub-Saharan Africa will remain well below 40%of the vehicle fleet in 2050.Top recommendations ImproveImprove thethe traceability oftraceability of internationally traded internationally traded used used cars cars Used vehicle imports and exports are regularly underreported,exports in p

46、articular.Large discrepancies exist among the data from different sources,making it difficult to base decisions empirically.The ability to trace used vehicles is essential to enforce restrictions on their export or import and improve the quality of traded vehicles.Traceability helps to ensure the pr

47、oper disposal of old vehicles via extended producer responsibility and monitor the treatment of end-of-life batteries and their high-value critical material components.The traceability of used car exports also helps choose the optimal locations for recycling and disposal services.Governments should

48、improve reporting by tracking vehicle-related information in specialised databases.These should log the country vehicles are registered in,together with vehicle identification numbers and basic information on powertrain and emissions performance.Additionally,better enforcement is needed to track whe

49、n vehicles are traded across borders.Avoid Avoid hamperinghampering exports of exports of used used electric vehicles to emerging economieselectric vehicles to emerging economies Developed countries should not be overly restrictive on the export of used electric vehicles.They may be tempted to do so

50、 to develop a domestic second-hand market or to control the supply of critical materials used in batteries.But with few electric vehicles on their roads,emerging economies will struggle to develop charging infrastructure and decarbonise their own fleets,and an electrification gap between developed a

51、nd emerging countries will result.Developed economies should help to ensure electric vehicles are properly disposed of at their end-of-life in emerging economies.Ensure used cars Ensure used cars for export for export meet meet clear clear roadworthroadworthinessiness criteriacriteria,including thei

52、r emissions performanceincluding their emissions performance Most countries do not impose significant restrictions on trading unroadworthy or highly polluting used vehicles.Both exporters and importers can help to restrict the sale of highly polluting conventional vehicles.These represent a relative

53、ly small share of total exports but produce disproportionately high air pollutant emissions.Governments should also link import restrictions to fuel standards to avoid degrading high-quality vehicles with poor-quality fuel.For second-hand electric vehicles,transparent reporting of battery health is

54、crucial to avoid dumping hazardous waste vehicles and to develop market confidence.Develop Develop sustainable transport strategies sustainable transport strategies in in emerging economies emerging economies to avoid their to avoid their overover-dependence odependence on n carscars The potential g

55、lut in the availability of cheap,unwanted combustion cars leaving developed economies may cause an uncontrolled expansion in car ownership there.Motorisation can help emerging economies meet citizens travel needs and create economic opportunities.Yet an over-dependence on cars at the expense of acti

56、ve and shared modes can cause urban sprawl and congestion and entrench high energy demand and air pollution.Instead,policies should bolster public transport systems and promote safe walking and cycling to reduce the reliance on private motor vehicles.THE GLOBAL TRADE IN USED VEHICLES NEW BUT USED:TH

57、E ELECTRIC VEHICLE TRANSITION AND THE GLOBAL SECOND-HAND CAR TRADE OECD/ITF 2023 9 The global trade in used vehicles The transition to electric vehicles(EVs)is gathering pace as a critical pillar for decarbonising the global passenger car stock.However,the speed of adoption of EVs varies significant

58、ly between countries.New vehicle technologies are typically adopted first in wealthier regions and only later elsewhere,often as exported second-hand cars.Significant uncertainty remains about how quickly EVs will enter the passenger car stocks of emerging economies through second-hand exports and n

59、ew sales.Emerging markets risk being flooded with unwanted conventional vehicles as they grow increasingly unpopular in developed economies.Equally,the export of EVs may face additional barriers,such as the desire to recycle or reuse batteries domestically and limited demand from importer countries,

60、which could slow the adoption of EVs.This report aims to shed light on the current global market for used passenger cars and understand how the arrival of EVs may change existing trade patterns.The analysis first explores the current flows of vehicles between countries and examines the age and quali

61、ty of vehicles sent to emerging economies.It reviews existing policies that restrict the import of used vehicles and touches on forthcoming policy measures under discussion by both importer and exporter countries to improve the quality of used exports.The analysis also examines how the trade in used

62、 vehicles is closely intertwined with the industrial policies of some major automotive manufacturing countries and how recent policy announcements may shift the trade balance between regions.Finally,the analysis assesses the complexities of the transition to EVs.This includes how battery recycling,s

63、econd-life applications and end-of-life treatment and disposal may impact the types of vehicles acquired by emerging economies.Current flows of used vehicles Countries differ in how they acquire vehicles.New cars initially enter the vehicle stocks of developed economies,as well as countries with sig

64、nificant automobile manufacturing,such as Argentina,Brazil,China and India.As vehicles age,they pass between multiple different domestic owners before potentially departing the national stock.Their fate typically falls into two categories:being scrapped(dismantled)or being traded to another region f

65、or a second life.Figure 1 graphically illustrates the lifecycle of vehicles and how they are traded between regions of the world.Developed economies acquire most of their vehicles as new car sales to replenish their stocks.Conversely,many emerging economies heavily depend on used imports from richer

66、 nations.When vehicles in emerging economies reach the end of their life,they eventually leave the vehicle stock and are scrapped.This report analyses the intricate landscape of the global trade in used cars and focuses specifically on the flow of vehicles between developed and emerging economies.TH

67、E GLOBAL TRADE IN USED VEHICLES 10 NEW BUT USED:THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE TRANSITION AND THE GLOBAL SECOND-HAND CAR TRADE OECD/ITF 2023 Figure Figure 1 1.Simplified Simplified flowchart of flowchart of global vehicle flowsglobal vehicle flows Note:The thickness of the arrows qualitatively depicts the vol

68、ume of the vehicle flows.Used vehicle exports/imports within a region are not shown.Consumers in low-income countries have favoured used vehicles for three main reasons:limited access to new vehicle options,significant price disparities between new and used imports and cost-effective repair services

69、 from lower labour costs in their regions.With a restricted availability of new vehicles,whether domestically produced or imported,consumers find purchasing imported used cars of their desired type easier.These used vehicles cost significantly less than new ones and,in some cases,may better meet the

70、 needs of households or businesses than new cars produced domestically or sourced from other markets.Also,vehicles depreciate faster in developed economies than in emerging economies.One reason is that labour expenses for repair and maintenance are lower in emerging economies.This means consumers in

71、 low-income economies may be more willing to pay for additional used vehicle maintenance requirements than equivalent consumers in developed economies(Coffin et al.,2016).Used vehicles flow from developed economies with significant vehicle production,such as Europe,Japan,Korea and North America,to l

72、ower-income regions,as shown in Figure 2.Within Europe,there are many used vehicle flows between countries due to the relative ease of transport between markets and open borders.Vehicles typically move from wealthier Western European countries to lower-income Eastern European countries as they age.H

73、owever,a significant number of vehicles are also exported,in particular to Sub-Saharan Africa.In the United States and Canada,used cars are likely traded between states,similar to used car flows between European countries.However,these flows are not shown in Figure 2 since they are domestic rather t

74、han international.The vehicle stock in Japan and Korea is approximately three times smaller than in the United States.Despite this,international car exports from both regions are similar in magnitude,partly due to national policies incentivising the export of used vehicles(explored later in this rep

75、ort).Vehicles exported from Canada and the United States are sent to the Middle East and North Africa(MENA),Central America(in particular Mexico),and right-hand driving countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.Conversely,exports from Japan and the United Kingdom,where people drive on the left,are sent to lef

76、t-hand driving South-Eastern Africa,including Kenya,Mozambique and South Africa.Japanese exports are also sent to Australia and New Zealand.Used vehicles often pass through an intermediate country,such as Chile,Libya,the United Arab Emirates and South Africa,on their way to their final destination i

77、n a neighbouring country.THE GLOBAL TRADE IN USED VEHICLES NEW BUT USED:THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE TRANSITION AND THE GLOBAL SECOND-HAND CAR TRADE OECD/ITF 2023 11 Figure Figure 2 2.Flows of used vehicles from exporter regions to importer regionsFlows of used vehicles from exporter regions to importer reg

78、ions in 2019in 2019 Source:Trade data from international statistics or national statistics offices compiled by ITF.Full details of the data sources used are shown in the methodology section.The quality of used vehicle exports The vehicles imported into emerging economies are typically older than tho

79、se traded between developed economies.Figure 3 shows the age distributions of vehicles imported into selected countries.Used vehicles imported into the Netherlands,Norway,Slovenia and Sweden are typically relatively new and do not account for significant shares of total new annual registrations.Used

80、 vehicles imported into Croatia,Latvia and other Eastern European countries are already considerably older(median age 7-8 years)and account for a greater share of total vehicles entering the national vehicle stock.African countries import even older used vehicles,many with a median age of over 15 ye

81、ars.THE GLOBAL TRADE IN USED VEHICLES 12 NEW BUT USED:THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE TRANSITION AND THE GLOBAL SECOND-HAND CAR TRADE OECD/ITF 2023 Figure Figure 3 3.Age of Age of vehicle vehicle imports imports for selected for selected countrcountriesies Source:Age distributions from OECD countries are sourc

82、ed from ITF collection of national statistics.Data from African countries are sourced from(Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management,2020).The vertical black line in each boxplot denotes the median age,box edges denote the 25th and 75th percentiles and horizontal black lines are 5th and 95th p

83、ercentiles of the age distribution.In parallel with being older,used car exports to many emerging markets are often of poor quality.Figure 4 shows the distributions of the unit value of used car exports from the United States to the largest markets by volume of cars.The average value of a car export

84、ed to Central America is around USD 4 800,whereas cars exported to ASEAN countries value more than USD 31 000.A recent investigation by the Netherlands Human Environment and Transport Inspectorate found that the quality of vehicles being exported to African countries from Dutch ports was similar to

85、those sent for dismantling at end-of-life,considered junk and worthy of scrappage(Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management,2020).Exported vehicles were found to have similarly high mileage and age as vehicles sent for dismantling,with only a minority having valid roadworthiness tests.The inve

86、stigation also found evidence of stolen vehicles being exported and illicit activities such as the removal of catalytic converters,faulty diesel particulate filters and modified odometers.Vehicles that are no longer driveable and classified as waste were also being exported illegally.THE GLOBAL TRAD

87、E IN USED VEHICLES NEW BUT USED:THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE TRANSITION AND THE GLOBAL SECOND-HAND CAR TRADE OECD/ITF 2023 13 Figure Figure 4 4.T Thehe value value of exported of exported carscars from the Ufrom the United nited S Statestates (2008(2008-2021)to 2021)to selected selected marketsmarkets Sourc

88、e:Value distributions are sourced from United States national statistics(see Table 1).The vertical black line in each boxplot denotes the median car value,box edges denote the 25th and 75th percentiles and horizontal black lines are 5th and 95th percentiles from the variation between the years 2008-

89、2021.The poor quality of vehicles exported to emerging markets raises a number of safety and environmental pollution concerns.Inspections of vehicles being exported to Africa found numerous vehicles to be unsafe,often having been involved in accidents or with severe structural damage.In addition,old

90、 vehicles produce significantly more air pollutant emissions,particularly if they are not well maintained with high-quality components.Many after-treatment systems containing precious metals as catalysts are often removed before the vehicle reaches the final consumer in emerging economies.This cause

91、s even more air pollution emissions,leading to severe health impacts.Furthermore,when vehicles reach their end of life in emerging economies,they must be dismantled and disposed of properly,avoiding environmental damage from materials and liquids in the vehicle.The importance of safe disposal will o

92、nly increase with the shift towards EVs with even more hazardous materials.Currently,many emerging economies do not have appropriate regular roadworthiness testing procedures to ensure that faulty,dangerous or highly polluting vehicles are properly maintained.A stronger legal framework with better-d

93、efined responsibilities,oversight and enforcement is needed(CITA,2020).USED VEHICLE TRADE:THE CURRENT POLICY CONTEXT 14 NEW BUT USED:THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE TRANSITION AND THE GLOBAL SECOND-HAND CAR TRADE OECD/ITF 2023 Used vehicle trade:The current policy context Effective governance and harmonised re

94、gional regulations are essential to regulating used vehicle imports.Regulations can control the quality of used vehicle imports,avoiding unsafe or highly polluting cars,but their effectiveness hinges on enforcement.Governance plays a pivotal role in upholding regulations.Notably,both fuel quality an

95、d vehicle import quality must be regulated to attain benefits in reducing air pollutants.Import restrictions Many countries worldwide have already implemented import restrictions on used vehicles.The United Nations Environment Program(UNEP)reviewed the policies of 146 countries and found that approx

96、imately 60%of countries have some form of import restrictions,albeit varying in stringency and enforcement levels(UNEP,2020).Nations with domestic vehicle manufacturing industries,such as Argentina,Brazil,India,China,Thailand,and Vietnam,often impose stringent import restrictions as protective measu

97、res.Many African countries have also implemented import restrictions to avoid unsafe and highly polluting vehicles entering the market.Ensuring such regulations include quality standards is vital to prevent the import of unsafe vehicles.This includes vehicles that have been involved in accidents and

98、 have severe structural damage.Many governments also have little incentive to impose stringent import bans because vehicle import taxes can generate significant government revenue(Ayetor,Mbonigaba et al.,2021).Recent efforts have been made to harmonise fuel and vehicle standards in the West African

99、region.In September 2020,the Economic Community of West African States(ECOWAS)Council of Ministers adopted regionally harmonised fuel quality standards.It introduced Euro 4 minimum vehicle emission standards for both new and used vehicles.Additionally,they imposed age restrictions on imports of used

100、 vehicles,allowing only vehicles under five years for LDVs and ten years for HDVs,with a ten-year implementation period.In East Africa,the East Africa Community Council of Ministers adopted harmonised Euro 4 standards and in-use vehicle emission limits for used vehicle imports in May 2022.Euro 4 veh

101、icles date from between 2006 and 2010,so they are already at least 13 years old.The World Forum on the Harmonization of Vehicle Regulations(Working Party 29,WP.29)is the UN body responsible for international vehicle regulations.WP.29 has established the Informal Working Group(IWG)on Safer and Cleane

102、r Used and New Vehicles(SCUNV)to develop regulations and standards in the areas of safety and environmental protection for both new and used vehicles(UNECE 2022).The IWG aims to develop minimum environmental and safety requirements and test procedures to qualify used vehicles as suitable to be expor

103、ted/imported.While emerging economies are increasingly aiming to control the quality of used vehicles entering their countries using import restrictions,a number of countries have included specific exemptions for EVs.Egypt USED VEHICLE TRADE:THE CURRENT POLICY CONTEXT NEW BUT USED:THE ELECTRIC VEHIC

104、LE TRANSITION AND THE GLOBAL SECOND-HAND CAR TRADE OECD/ITF 2023 15 and Bhutan,for example,permit the import of used EVs provided they are relatively young(less than three years)and of low mileage(with odometer reading less than 30 000 km)(UNEP,2020).Fuel quality regulations In addition to restricti

105、ons on the import of used vehicles,many countries face a parallel challenge of regulating fuel quality.A mismatch between the fuel and air pollutant emission standards can significantly affect emission control systems in vehicles.Vehicle emissions standards are closely linked with fuel standards(UNE

106、CE,2023).For example,low pollutant emissions in recent emission standards(e.g.Euro 6)rely on modern exhaust gas after-treatment systems(e.g.NOx catalytic converter),which are highly sensitive to poor fuel quality.Catalytic converters are subject to degradation mechanisms,such as catalyst poisoning t

107、hrough trace chemicals such as sulfur(Wise,1991,Kumar et al.,2017).Therefore,the Euro 6 standard has a recommended fuel standard with a sulfur content of less than 10 ppm.Some importing countries like Morocco have an import ban on vehicles older than five years and require Euro 6 as an emission stan

108、dard.However,they only have fuel quality standards equivalent to those required in Euro 4,which have a sulfur threshold of 50 ppm.Egypt or Nigeria require emission standards equivalent to Euro 6 but have fuel standards less than required for Euro 1 vehicles(sulfur content 80%)and low(70%over 8 years

109、 or 100 000 miles(160 000 km),whichever comes first for model years 2026-2030 and 75%over 8 years or 100 000 miles for any vehicles sold after 2031.These warranty requirements encompass PHEVs and BEVs.Similarly,the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe(UNECE),which establishes legally bindin

110、g technical regulations concerning vehicle design and construction for the European and Japanese car market,has included similar warranty requirements.These requirements stipulate that the battery must retain 80%of its“rated usable energy”after 5 years or 100 000 km and 70%after 8 years or 160 000 k

111、m,whichever comes first.Another vital component of these regulations is the battery passport,which links to a digital platform where manufacturers disclose battery data,making it easier for repair and assessment.While these legislations will undoubtedly lead to an increase in the quality of vehicles

112、 and batteries and help alleviate the concerns and uncertainties of potential used car buyers in the US and European used car markets,these measures must also be supported and enforced in developing countries.This encompasses accessing SoH battery data for incoming used ZEVs,ensuring transparency an

113、d reliability across global markets.For potential repairability,this may include appropriate training for the local workforce for safe and effective battery and vehicle maintenance.Battery replacement If a vehicle has reached its EoL due to battery degradation,it is possible to replace the battery.H

114、owever,battery replacement strategies for used EVs face significant challenges.Spare parts of conventional vehicles are often small,inexpensive,common between different vehicle models or brands,and can be easily transported across the globe.Conversely,a battery is a highly specialised core part of a

115、n EV,with a battery management system taking over vital tasks in monitoring and controlling the battery pack,including thermal management of the battery,which is crucial to its safe operation(Liu et al.,2022).Since the EV market is still relatively young,the aftermarket is poorly developed,especiall

116、y for critical components such as the battery.That makes it less likely for replacement batteries to be available for various models,particularly in emerging economies.A battery pack consists of multiple modules,each comprising multiple cells,which fail at different rates.Ideally,individual cells sh

117、ould be replaced instead of replacing the entire battery.However,batteries are currently not designed to be repaired.Some manufacturers even design batteries with barriers to repairability as they do not use common platforms in battery management systems(BMS)or onboard diagnostics systems(Slattery e

118、t al.,2021),as is the case for conventional vehicles.This could allow the diagnostics of the battery on a module or cell level.Battery replacements will pose significant challenges for emerging economies,where vehicle repair and maintenance largely rely on unofficial workshops.EXPLORING POSSIBLE FUT

119、URE SCENARIOS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLE ADOPTION IN EMERGING ECONOMIES NEW BUT USED:THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE TRANSITION AND THE GLOBAL SECOND-HAND CAR TRADE OECD/ITF 2023 35 A potential second life for a battery The rapid uptake of EVs will result in a growing number of retired batteries from EVs in the futur

120、e,which,though no longer suitable for their original purpose,may still be used in secondary applications where the performance requirements of the battery are lower.For example,they could be disassembled and used in micromobility applications,local storage(i.e.,residential or industrial purposes),gr

121、id flexibility services or as a larger buffer in high-power charging applications to avoid costly grid updates.Repurposing a battery involves disassembling the battery to a cell level,evaluating each cells performance and safety,and adding a new BMS adapted for its new application.The new BMS would

122、have to adapt to different battery chemistries,reduced energy and power capabilities,as well as large inconsistencies between different battery cells(Zhu et al.,2021).After repurposing,the refurbishing entity must guarantee its safe operation in a stationary application for the 10 years of expected

123、service.This transfer of responsibility remains a significant impediment to battery repurposing,especially in residential applications,where consumers may have reservations given the high perceived risk.The costs of repurposing are mainly driven by the high manual effort of the disassembly(Zhu et al

124、.,2021).However,this could be kept as low as USD 20/kWh,according to the battery-refurbishment cost calculator from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory(NREL).Much research is underway for fully automated battery disassembly and inspection(Meng et al.,2022)and screening and sorting(Lai et al.,20

125、19;Yang et al.,2023).Trends in market dynamics on the future price of second-life EV batteries indicate that in the long term,the price will only be governed by the supply of EoL batteries rather than the refurbishing costs or the price of new batteries(Sun et al.,2018).Therefore,once sufficient tra

126、nsport-related EoL batteries are available,it can be assumed that the costs of second-life batteries will be low.However,it is widely accepted that the supply of EoL batteries will by far exceed the need for second-life applications as a consequence of the strong uptake of EVs(Canals Casals et al.,2

127、022;Harper et al.,2019;McKinsey,2019;Sun et al.,2018;Zhu et al.,2021).It is also conceivable that old batteries in developed economies are used in applications where they have only a marginal benefit towards decarbonisation and could instead be used to achieve greater emissions-saving benefits in em

128、erging economies.Battery recycling Battery recycling is a process that involves collecting,disassembling,and reprocessing used or end-of-life EV batteries to recover valuable materials in the battery.According to Reuters,at least 80 companies globally are involved in battery recycling(Carey et al.,2

129、023).Common battery recycling approaches include material separation after battery disassembly(e.g.by the American Battery Technology Company),shredding into black mass1(e.g.by the company Li-Cycle),or remanufacturing the cathodes(e.g.by the company Ascend Elements)(Spector,2022).Battery recycling m

130、inimises the environmental impact of disposing of batteries in landfills or incineration and improves resource efficiency.Different techniques allow raw material recovery rates up to 95%(EVBox,2023).Recycling is a main pillar in transport decarbonisation and is highly likely to improve resilience to

131、 potential supply chain shortages in critical minerals.In 2022,there was approximately 1.6 TWh of battery manufacturing capacity worldwide(IEA,2023).However,global battery recycling capacities amounted to just 0.01%of this,meaning just 0.117 GWh can currently be recycled(Baum et al.,2022).China not

132、only 1 Black mass describes the type of waste which results from shredding lithium-ion batteries.The black mass contains all precious metals,such as lithium,cobalt,nickel,manganese or graphite,dependnig on the battery chemistry.EXPLORING POSSIBLE FUTURE SCENARIOS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLE ADOPTION IN EMER

133、GING ECONOMIES 36 NEW BUT USED:THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE TRANSITION AND THE GLOBAL SECOND-HAND CAR TRADE OECD/ITF 2023 globally leads the entire upstream value chain of lithium-ion batteries used in EVs(75%of global battery supply,70%of anode and cathodes production and about 50%of refining capacities of

134、 critical minerals are located in China IEA,2022),but also the recycling process.More than two-thirds of the global recycling capacities for EV batteries are located in China(Baum et al.,2022).China is buying used EV batteries(Bloomberg,2021)or importing shredded black mass(Carey et al.,2023)from ov

135、erseas,which is of increasing concern to local recycling companies.However,legislative approaches in the United States and the EU will majorly impact global battery recycling.In the United States,the Inflation Reduction Act,which offers a federal tax credit of USD 7500 for a new EV,requires that 80%

136、of the critical minerals be mined or processed in the United States or countries with which it has a free trade agreement(US Congress,2022).It also meets eligibility criteria if the battery materials are recycled in North America,regardless of where the battery was manufactured(ICCT,2023).The recent

137、ly passed EU Battery Regulation(7/20232)also introduces significant changes to boost battery repairability and recycling.The directive mandates repairability at the battery-cell level.Under this directive,batteries must be made available as spare parts for five years after the last unit of a specifi

138、c model is placed on the market.The regulation also sets minimum standards for the use of recycled material(e.g.cobalt 16%,lead 85%and 6%for lithium and nickel)(European Parliament,2022;Right to Repair Europe,2022).However,the part of the regulation concerning repairability will not come into force

139、until at least 2026,meaning that all batteries in use before then will not be subject to the provisions outlined in the directive and will face challenges to being repaired(Right to Repair Europe,2022).If batteries cannot be recycled,they must be disposed of safely.In Europe,it is illegal to dispose

140、 of batteries and other non-inert waste in landfills(European Commission,2023b).However,if EVs reach their EoL in emerging economies,there is a significant risk of improper disposal.This can include illegal landfilling or informal processing,such as deliberately burning batteries,which severely cont

141、aminates soil,water and air.Stockpiled or buried batteries can catch fire even months or years after they have been discarded(Mrozik et al.,2021).Improper disposal or abandoned EVs have been reported in emerging economies(UNEP,2020),and lax environmental legislation in these countries will potential

142、ly lead to an increase in this disposal pathway once more EVs reach their EoL in emerging economies(Kwade and Diekmann,2018).These concerns highlight the importance of supporting stringent local waste management practices.Will electric vehicles make their way to emerging economies?The transition to

143、EVs will significantly impact historical patterns of the used vehicle trade.To better understand the impacts of these additional complexities,the following analysis explores different used EV trade scenarios in emerging economies based on the dynamics introduced in the previous sections.In particula

144、r,the modelling examines the probability of EV export compared with historical patterns.If EVs and conventional ICEVs of equal age have a similar probability of export,then EVs will be adopted steadily in emerging economies as they become unwanted in developed economies,in line with historical patte

145、rns of trade.In this scenario,emerging economies will continue to receive old vehicles,except an increasing share will be electric.We refer to this scenario as EVs having 100%of the probability of export as ICEVs.EXPLORING POSSIBLE FUTURE SCENARIOS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLE ADOPTION IN EMERGING ECONOMIES

146、NEW BUT USED:THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE TRANSITION AND THE GLOBAL SECOND-HAND CAR TRADE OECD/ITF 2023 37 However,several factors are likely to reduce the probability of the export of EVs compared with ICEVs.These include:Potential restrictions on the export of used EVs,either from desires to retain contro

147、l of critical materials or out of concern about the EoL treatment of batteries in emerging economies.These may lead to EVs being dismantled and scrapped in developed countries.The residual value of EV batteries,either for second-life applications in stationary storage or as recycled materials,which

148、may lead to a reduction in the exports of EVs.The lack of charging infrastructure or even electricity access in many emerging economies may also reduce demand for EVs with respect to ICEVs.Many emerging economies are unlikely to have the government funding available to provide similar levels of subs

149、idies for public charging infrastructure as developed economies to overcome initial market risks when demand for charging is low.While this may change if governments decide to electrify,e.g.public transportation,it is unlikely that the related grid updates will also enable a widespread network of pu

150、blic charging infrastructure.Electric two-and three-wheelers may be the first to decarbonise and thus reduce the demand for electric passenger vehicles.They are cheaper,dont require extensive public charging infrastructure,and are already produced locally,which may make them preferable over an EV-ty

151、pe passenger car.If EVs have longer lifetimes and lower maintenance requirements,they may last longer in developed economies before being exported,which would postpone exports relative to ICEVs.As vehicle stocks electrify in developed economies,conventional ICEVs will likely become less desirable.Th

152、is could lead to an oversupply of used ICEV exports in the short-to medium-term(as seen in Norway),meaning EVs could account for a lower share of exports,particularly if the residual value of unwanted ICEVs is substantially lower than that of used EVs.It is unclear exactly how these factors will inf

153、luence the probability of EVs being exported relative to ICEVs.However,to provide some indication of the potential impacts,we explore several different probabilities.A probability of 20%represents a scenario in which EVs reaching the end of their use in developed economies are five times less likely

154、 to be exported than ICEVs of comparable age and condition.Figure 15 shows how the vehicle stock in the MENA and Sub-Saharan Africa regions could be influenced by the types of vehicles imported,assuming EVs only have a 20%probability of being exported as ICEVs.These regions are highly dependent on u

155、sed vehicle imports but would only receive a small share of EVs after they had first been used in developed economies.If EVs are less likely to be exported to these regions,they will likely remain dependent on old ICEVs.EXPLORING POSSIBLE FUTURE SCENARIOS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLE ADOPTION IN EMERGING ECO

156、NOMIES 38 NEW BUT USED:THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE TRANSITION AND THE GLOBAL SECOND-HAND CAR TRADE OECD/ITF 2023 Figure Figure 1515.Modelled passenger car stock by powertrain and origin for Modelled passenger car stock by powertrain and origin for the the Middle East and North AfricaMiddle East and North A

157、frica (MENA)and Sub(MENA)and Sub-Saharan AfricaSaharan Africa Note:This figure shows a scenario in which EVs are assumed to be five times less likely to be exported than comparable ICEVs.ICEV=internal combustion engine vehicle;BEV=battery electric vehicle.However,with concerted policy action,there i

158、s the potential for a greater share of good-quality EVs to make their way to emerging markets.For electromobility to take off in emerging markets,private investment in charging infrastructure,stimulated by public policies,will be needed to deploy charging infrastructure networks.Irrespective of the

159、actual numbers of received EVs,developed economies should help to manage EoL vehicles to avoid environmental damages from unproperly disposed vehicles or batteries.Additionally,if concerns about the availability of critical materials turn out to be overblown,and developed economies avoid excessive r

160、estrictions on used exports while ensuring roadworthy vehicles and batteries are in a good state of health,EV exports could be significantly higher.Recent ambitions expressed by the Chinese government to export EVs and roadworthy vehicles of adequate quality suggest this is possible.Figure 16 shows

161、the share of EVs in the passenger car stock of Sub-Saharan Africa under different scenarios of the probability of EVs being exported compared to ICEVs of similar age and condition.If EVs have the same chance of being exported as ICEVs(100%),then it is theoretically possible that almost 40%of the Sub

162、-Saharan African stock could be electrified through the used vehicle trade from developed economies.This is likely to represent an optimistic“upper-bound”,but there is the potential for a significant share of the stock to be electrified even with lower probabilities of export.EXPLORING POSSIBLE FUTU

163、RE SCENARIOS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLE ADOPTION IN EMERGING ECONOMIES NEW BUT USED:THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE TRANSITION AND THE GLOBAL SECOND-HAND CAR TRADE OECD/ITF 2023 39 Figure Figure 1616.E Electric vehiclelectric vehicle share in the passenger car stock in Subshare in the passenger car stock in Sub-Sahar

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198、BAL SECOND-HAND CAR TRADE OECD/ITF 2023 Appendix:Methodology Used vehicle flow data sources Table 1 lists all the datasets sourced by ITF,including descriptions of which were used in the core analysis of this report.It is challenging to find publicly available and accurate data on the number and typ

199、e of vehicles imported into emerging economies.For this reason,this analysis relies primarily on data from exporter countries.This analysis groups countries into global regions and investigates used vehicle flows between them(rather than within them)to overcome some of the challenges of cross-border

200、 flows of vehicles between countries.Therefore,we hypothesise that a vehicle imported into a region will likely remain within it,even though its final destination country may differ from the country it is imported into.Having collected data from multiple different sources we found considerable diffe

201、rences between them.Figures 17 and 18 show the differences in total imports and exports of used vehicles between national sources and the Eurostat database.These figures highlight the large inconsistencies between different databases.However,the differences are not limited to the Eurostat database.C

202、omparing the flows of used vehicles between countries where national databases are available(and disaggregated by origin/destination country)again suggests significant inconsistencies.Many of the national data sources available do not disaggregate used imports or exports by origin/destination.For th

203、is reason we use a consolidated data set for the main analysis comprising the data from Brazil,China,Canada,Eurostat,Korea,Japan,United Kingdom and USA.Other predominantly European national datasets are not used for the main analysis since the flows are already included in the Eurostat database(alth

204、ough differing slightly in magnitude).Selected national datasets were used for specific figures as outlined in Table 1.Table Table 1 1.Data sources of used vehicle imports/exportsData sources of used vehicle imports/exports CountryCountry SourceSource Used in the Used in the analysis?analysis?Albani

205、a Personal communication with Institute of Statistics No Armenia Personal communication with Statistical committee Only for Figure 18 Austria Personal communication with statistics Austria Only for Figure 17 Brazil https:/www.gov.br/mdic/pt-br/assuntos/comercio-exterior/estatisticas/base-de-dados-br

206、uta Yes APPENDIX:METHODOLOGY NEW BUT USED:THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE TRANSITION AND THE GLOBAL SECOND-HAND CAR TRADE OECD/ITF 2023 45 CountryCountry SourceSource Used in the Used in the analysis?analysis?Canada https:/www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2021004-eng.htm Yes China Chinese Ministry

207、of Commerce,Department of Foreign Trade(2021),Chinas Used Car Export Country Guide Yes Croatia Personal communication with Ministry of Interior Only for Figure 18 Czech Republic http:/portal.sda-cia.cz/stat.php?o#str=oje No Estonia http:/andmebaas.stat.ee/?lang=en#No Korea Personal communication wit

208、h UNEP Yes Europe https:/ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/product/view/ds-045409?lang=en Yes Finland https:/trafi2.stat.fi/PXWeb/pxweb/en/TraFi/No Germany Personal communication with Destatis(Statistisches Bundesamt)Only for Figure 17 Hungary www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_ode007.html

209、 Only for Figure 6 Ireland https:/data.cso.ie/Only for Figure 18 Italy www.anfia.it/it/automobile-in-cifre/statistiche-italia/trade-automotive Only for Figure 17 Japan Personal communication with Ministry of Land,Infrastructure,Transport and Tourism Yes Latvia Personal communication with Satiksmes m

210、inistrijas Only for Figure 18 Moldova Personal communication with National Bureau of Statistics Only for Figure 18 Mongolia No Morocco Personal communication with Ministre du transport et de la logistique Only for Figure 6 Netherlands Personal communication with Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek On

211、ly for Figure 17 New Zealand www.transport.govt.nz/statistics-and-insights/stock-statistics/2019-annual-stock-statistics/No Norway Personal communication with Statistics Norway Only for Figure 11 and Figure 17 Portugal Personal communication with Statistics Portugal Only for Figure 17 Romania http:/

212、statistici.insse.ro:8077/tempo-online/#/pages/tables/insse-table Only for Figure 6 Slovakia Personal communication with Ministry of Interior No Slovenia https:/podatki.gov.si/dataset/evidenca-registriranih-vozil-presek-stanja#No Sweden Personal communication with Trafik Analys No Switzerland Persona

213、l communication with Swiss Federal Office for Customs and Border Security Only for Figure 18 United Kingdom Personal communication with Department for Transport Yes United States https:/www.trade.gov/data-visualization/used-vehicle-trade-data-visualization Yes APPENDIX:METHODOLOGY 46 NEW BUT USED:TH

214、E ELECTRIC VEHICLE TRANSITION AND THE GLOBAL SECOND-HAND CAR TRADE OECD/ITF 2023 Dataset comparison Figure Figure 1717.Used vehicle exports:comparison of Eurostat and national sourcesUsed vehicle exports:comparison of Eurostat and national sources APPENDIX:METHODOLOGY NEW BUT USED:THE ELECTRIC VEHIC

215、LE TRANSITION AND THE GLOBAL SECOND-HAND CAR TRADE OECD/ITF 2023 47 Figure Figure 1818.Used vehicle imports:comparison of Eurostat and national sourcesUsed vehicle imports:comparison of Eurostat and national sources Forecasting vehicle stocks The quantitative analysis of this report builds on the IT

216、F vehicle stock model.This section describes novel additions developed to the stock model for the analysis of this report and the methodology used for specific figures of this report.For a more general description of the ITF stock model and its interactions with other ITF demand models,the reader is

217、 referred to the documentation available on the ITF website(ITF,2023).Passenger car stocks change over time in line with travel demand projections from the Current Ambition scenario of the ITF Outlook 2023 by region.The model estimates survival curves for each vehicle type in APPENDIX:METHODOLOGY 48

218、 NEW BUT USED:THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE TRANSITION AND THE GLOBAL SECOND-HAND CAR TRADE OECD/ITF 2023 each region and year based on historical time series of vehicle sales(the sum of used imports and new sales)and national stock data.An optimisation module fits parameters b and Tc to select an optimum pr

219、obability of vehicle survival,given by the following Weibull distribution equation:a=e(+c)Where a is the age of the vehicle in years(new vehicle age=0),b is the failure steepness,and Tc is the characteristic lifetime.The optimum Weibull curve is one that minimises the error between historical vehicl

220、e sales(inputs into the stock)with data on the national stock in a particular year:Error=Stock Salesaa Outflows from the vehicle stock from a region in a given year are estimated using the following equation:Outflows=Salesaa(1 a/a1)These curves are used to estimate the lifetime of different vehicles

221、 over time.When a vehicle is scrapped,it must be replaced by a new vehicle.Similarly,if transport demand using a specific vehicle increases over time,additional new vehicles must be added to the stock to satisfy demand.These factors govern the size of vehicle stocks and their demographics over time.

222、The probability of survival of vehicles in each region and for all powertrains is assumed to remain constant in future.Modelling the quantity of used vehicles imported/exported New vehicles must be added to regional car stocks to replace outflowing vehicles from regional stocks and meet additional t

223、ravel demand.These new vehicles can be either brand new vehicles or used imports.The share of used vehicle imports in total new annual additional vehicles is assumed to remain constant in all regions over time in line with historical shares.To estimate this,we combined used vehicle imports data(see

224、Table 1)with new sales data(from ITF data collection activities and IEA Mobility Model).Europe,China,North America,Japan and Korea are all assumed to continue with 1%used imports from outside their respective regions(this does not include used vehicle flows within each region).Central Asia is assume

225、d to import 40%of vehicles entering the stock each year,Middle East and North Africa(MENA)67%and Sub-Saharan Africa(95%).The median age of used vehicle imports by region is assumed to be similar to historical values and kept constant over time.Informed by the age distributions presented in Figure 3,

226、we assume the age distribution of used vehicle imports into Europe,China,North America,Japan and Korea are normally distributed with a mean of 4 years and a standard deviation of 1.5 years.We assume normally distributed age of imports for Central Asia,MENA and Sub-Saharan Africa have a mean of 12 ye

227、ars,12 years and 16 years,respectively,with a standard deviation of 3 years,3 years and 5 years,respectively.Modelling the origin of used imports The share of vehicle exports to outflows from traditional exporters is assumed to remain constant at historical values.This assumes Japan and Korea will c

228、ontinue to export 36%of vehicles leaving their domestic stocks(with the remainder being dismantled domestically).Europe and North America are assumed to export 7%of outflows.We assume Chinese used vehicle exports scale up from 1%of stock outflows today to 22%by 2035.APPENDIX:METHODOLOGY NEW BUT USED

229、:THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE TRANSITION AND THE GLOBAL SECOND-HAND CAR TRADE OECD/ITF 2023 49 The relative shares of vehicle imports from different regions remain constant over time but are modified to account for the increasing importance of Chinese exports.For example,Sub-Saharan Africa has traditionally

230、 received 47%of vehicles from Europe,20%from North America and 33%from Japan and Korea.We assume these relative shares between traditional exporting regions remain constant,but the total shares decrease with the growing importance of Chinese exports.For example,the origin of imports to Sub-Saharan A

231、frica in 2050 is assumed to be:45%from China,26%from Europe,18%from Japan and Korea and 11%from North America.Used vehicle exports are only modelled from traditional exporting regions(Europe,North America,Japan and Korea)and China.Potential future used exports from other regions such as India and So

232、uth East Asia are not explored.New sales shares of EVs and internal combustion engine vehicles in each region are sourced from the Current Ambition scenario of the ITF Outlook 2023.Passenger car stocks in each region are firstly split by powertrain type based on the origin of the vehicle(whether it

233、was first sold locally or imported from a specific region)and the year of first sale.For example,vehicles first sold in 2030 in Sub-Saharan Africa and still present in the stock in 2040 are split by the new sales share in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2030(e.g.10%EVs,90%ICEVs).Vehicles first sold in 2030 in

234、 Europe but present in the stock of Sub-Saharan Africa in 2040 are split by the new sales share in Europe in 2030(e.g.60%EVs,40%ICEVs).However,this assumes that a used ICEV and BEV have the same probability of export.In a second step,these shares are modified to account for the possibility that BEVs

235、 are less likely to be exported to emerging economies than used ICEVs of similar age.To do this,we reduce the sales shares of EVs in used imports by a factor ranging from 20%to 80%and replace the remaining vehicles with used ICEVs of similar vintage.Regional groupings Several regional groupings of c

236、ountries are used to simply the visual representation of trends in this report.They include:MENA(Middle East and North Africa):Morocco,Algeria,Tunisia,Egypt,Saudi Arabia,Oman,Yemen,Iraq,Lebanon,Syria,Israel,Palestine etc.ASEAN:Indonesia,Malaysia,Philippines,Singapore,Thailand.Central Asia:Mongolia,K

237、azakhstan,Uzbekistan,Russia,etc.Sub-Saharan Africa:All African nations not included in MENA.Europe:All EEA nations+the United Kingdom+Ukraine etc.Latin America:All nations in the continents of North and South America,excluding the United States and Canada.APPENDIX:METHODOLOGY 50 NEW BUT USED:THE ELE

238、CTRIC VEHICLE TRANSITION AND THE GLOBAL SECOND-HAND CAR TRADE OECD/ITF 2023 Workshop attendance list Onsite/Online Title Name Company Online Mr Aditya Rai Amazon Online Mr Mohamed Ali Saafi Aramco Americas Online Mrs Emma McCarthy UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero Online Mr Andries Petr

239、us Van Tonder Chairperson of the IWG on SCUNV Online Mr Lewis W Columbia SIPA Center on Global Energy Policy Online Mr Jack Queenan UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero Online Mr Eduardo Barrientos ExxonMobil Online Mrs Sheila Watson FIA Foundation Online Mr Enno Christan Human Environment

240、 and Transport Inspectorate,NL Online Mrs Marietta Harjono Human Environment and Transport Inspectorate,NL Online Mr Renato Ferreira Formigari Iberdrola Online Mrs Isabel Gomez Iberdrola Online Mr Alexander Tankou International Council for Clean Transportation Online Mr Jacob Teter International Ene

241、rgy Agency Online Mrs Elisabeth Windisch International Transport Forum Online Ms Lauren Chester International Transport Forum Online Mr Matteo Craglia International Transport Forum Online Mrs Sharon Masterson International Transport Forum Online Mrs Clie Denez International Transport Forum Online Mr

242、 Andreas Kopf International Transport Forum Online Mr Godwin Ayetor Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology Online Mr Rob De Jong UNEP Online Mr Vahid Aryanpur University College Cork Online Mrs Alissa Kendall University of California,Davis Online Mr Lewis Fulton University of California,

243、Davis Online Mr Roger Gorham World Bank Onsite Mr Victor Gordillo Aramco Overseas Company BV Onsite Mr Pierpaolo Cazzola Columbia University,University of California Onsite Mrs Victoria Delicado Montoya ENEL Onsite Mr Alexis Roca ExxonMobil Onsite Ms.Asuka Ito Fdration Internationale de lAutomobile

244、Onsite Ms Olivia Wessendorff International Transport Forum Onsite Mr Matteo Craglia International Transport Forum Onsite Ms Sharon Masterson International Transport Forum Onsite Mr Soichiro Minami Ministry of Land,Infrastructure and Tourism Japan Onsite Mr Teruki Yamada Ministry of Land,Infrastructu

245、re and Tourism Japan Onsite Mr Valentin Bouzigues Mott MacDonald Onsite Mr Mike Conroy TotalEnergies Onsite Mr Takayuki Kusajima Toyota Motor Co.Published:12/2023|Photo credit:underworld/ShutterstockThis report analyses the global trade in used cars and how the transition to electric vehicles may im

246、pact it.The analysis explores the quality and age of used vehicles traded globally and maps out how they are traded from developed economies to emerging markets.The report reviews recent importer and exporter policy announcements and uses quantitative analysis,for the first time,to understand how po

247、licies may impact the flows of used vehicles between countries.It evaluates potential scenarios of electric vehicle adoption in emerging economies through used vehicle imports.International Transport Forum2 rue Andr PascalF-75775 Paris Cedex 16+33(0)1 73 31 25 00contactitf-oecd.orgwww.itf-oecd.orgNew but UsedThe Electric Vehicle Transition and the Global Second-hand Car Trade