世界銀行組織：2022年世界發展報告-金融為公平復蘇護航（275頁）.pdf

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1、A World Bank Group Flagship ReportWORLD DEVELOPMENT REPORTFINANCE FOR AN EQUITABLE RECOVERYFINANCE FOR AN EQUITABLE RECOVERYA World Bank Group Flagship ReportWORLD DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2022 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433Tele

2、phone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.orgSome rights reserved1 2 3 4 25 24 23 22This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its

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9、ou are free to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under the following conditions:AttributionPlease cite the work as follows: World Bank. 2022. World Development Report 2022: Finance for an Equitable Recovery. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/97

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14、on is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images.All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington

15、, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: pubrightsworldbank.org.ISSN, ISBN, e-ISBN, and DOI:SoftcoverISSN: 0163-5085ISBN: 978-1-4648-1730-4e-ISBN: 978-1-4648-1731-1DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1730-4 HardcoverISSN: 0163-5085ISBN: 978-1-4648-1759-5DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1759-5Cover and interior design: Gordon Schuit, wi

16、th input from the Design team in the Global Corporate Solutions unit of the World Bank.Library of Congress Control Number: 2022930708The cutoff date for the data used in this report was August 31, 2021, unless otherwise indicated.iiiContentsxi Forewordxiii Prefacexv Acknowledgmentsxix Abbreviations

17、1 Overview1 Introduction3 The economic impacts of the pandemic6 The economic policy response to the pandemic: Swift but with large variation across countries8 Resolving financial risks: A prerequisite for an equitable recovery20 Conclusion21 Notes22 References 25 Introduction26 Introduction26 Impact

18、s on households33 Impacts on firms38 Impacts on the financial sector39 The short-term government response and its impact on public finances44 Notes46 References49 Chapter 1: Emerging risks to the recovery50 Introduction51 Interconnected financial risks across the economy54 From health crisis to fina

19、ncial distress: Emerging risks to the recovery68 The global economy71 Conclusion 72 Notes72 References 74 Spotlight 1.1: Financial inclusion and financial resilience iv | CONTENTS79 Chapter 2: Resolving bank asset distress80 Introduction82 Why do NPLs matter?83 Identifying NPLs: Asset quality, bank

20、capital, and effective supervision93 Building capacity to manage rising volumes of bad debts100 Dealing with problem banks 108 Conclusion109 Notes113 References 118 Spotlight 2.1: Strengthening the regulation and supervision of microfinance institutions123 Chapter 3: Restructuring firm and household

21、 debt124 Introduction 124 Why should anyone care about insolvency systems?127 Strengthening formal insolvency mechanisms134 Facilitating alternative dispute resolution systems such as conciliation and mediation136 Establishing accessible and inexpensive in-court and out-of-court debt resolution proc

22、edures for MSMEs 141 Promoting debt forgiveness and discharge of natural person debtors142 Conclusion143 Notes145 References 149 Spotlight 3.1: Supporting microfinance to sustain small businesses155 Chapter 4: Lending during the recovery and beyond156 Introduction157 Solving the COVID-19 risk puzzle

23、: Risk visibility and recourse 161 Improving risk mitigation184 Policies to enable access to credit and address risks189 Conclusion190 Notes191 References199 Spotlight 4.1: Public credit guarantee schemes203 Chapter 5: Managing sovereign debt204 Introduction204 The impact of COVID-19 on sovereign de

24、bt207 The human costs of debt crises 211 New challenges in managing and resolving sovereign debt CONTENTS | vBoxes214 Managing sovereign debt and resolving sovereign debt distress227 Looking ahead: Reforms to mobilize revenue, improve transparency, and facilitate debt negotiations234 Conclusion235 N

25、otes237 References241 Spotlight 5.1: Greening capital markets: Sovereign sustainable bonds249 Chapter 6: Policy priorities for the recovery250 Introduction252 Tackling the most urgent sources of risk253 Managing domestic risks to the recovery255 Managing interrelated risks across the global economy2

26、56 Seizing the opportunity to build a more sustainable world economy256 Notes257 References43I.1The interplay of fiscal and monetary policy 571.1Case study: Supporting borrowers and the financial sector in India 631.2The unintended consequences of regulatory forbearance691.3External factors in the r

27、ecovery: Will this “taper tantrum” be different?842.1International guidance on loan classification and problem assets892.2The use of financial technology in banking supervision during the pandemic902.3Bank supervision and state ownership of banks972.4Addressing problematic loans to micro-, small, an

28、d medium enterprises in Slovenia 1062.5 Restructuring the financial system in Ghana1243.1A short primer on the insolvency process 1313.2Comprehensive and ongoing institutional insolvency reforms in India, 201620150 S3.1.1How Pakistani MFIs and regulators managed the crisis151 S3.1.2Case study: A com

29、pounded crisis in Lebanon1634.1Case study: Adaptive underwriting in Mexico 1654.2 Credit and algorithmic biases 1684.3 The COVID-19 digital shock1724.4Case study: Mobile money overdrafts in Kenya 1764.5 Case study: Pay-as-you-go home solar systems vi | CONTENTS1794.6Case study: Doubling down on MSE

30、finance throughout the pandemic 1824.7The supply chain finance response to the pandemic1874.8 Case study: Use of alternative data by credit bureaus during the pandemic2085.1Case study: Debt relief to create space for social spending in Rwanda2165.2Case study: Seizing market opportunities for better

31、debt management in Benin2225.3 The role of multilateral coordination in the looming debt crisis: The G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative and the G20 Common Framework2255.4 Case study: The social and economic costs of financial repression in Argentina2305.5 Case study: The curse of hidden debt in

32、Mozambique 2506.1Evaluating the success of the crisis response: A research agendaFigures2O.1Economic impact of COVID-19 in historical perspective3O.2Conceptual framework: Interconnected balance sheet risks4O.3Conceptual framework: Vicious and virtuous cycles7O.4Fiscal response to the COVID-19 crisis

33、, selected countries, by income group8O.5Fiscal, monetary, and financial sector policy responses to the pandemic, by country income group9O.6Capacity of banking systems to absorb increases in nonperforming loans, by country income group12O.7Share of enterprises in arrears or expecting to fall into a

34、rrears within six months, selected countries, MaySeptember 202014O.8 Quarterly trends in credit conditions, by country income group, 20182117O.9General government gross debt, by country income group, 20102018O.10Sovereign debt restructuring and time spent in default, selected countries, 1975200027I.

35、1Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on households, by country income group28I.2Global annual change in extreme poor, 1992202028I.3 Global extreme poverty, 20152130I.4Ways in which households coped with income losses from the COVID-19 crisis, by country income group32I.5 Household resilience to income lo

36、sses, selected emerging and advanced economies CONTENTS | vii33I.6Impacts of alternative COVID-19 policies and coping strategies at different time horizons, emerging and advanced economies34I.7Impact of COVID-19 on businesses, selected countries36I.8Economic uncertainty and employment during the COV

37、ID-19 crisis37I.9Percentage of corporate debt at risk after a simulated 30 percent shock to earnings, precrisis, selected countries, by income group40I.10Fiscal response to the COVID-19 crisis, selected countries, by income group41I.11Fiscal, monetary, and financial sector policy responses to the pa

38、ndemic, by country income group42I.12 Global sovereign downgrades, 1980202043 BI.1.1 Asset purchase programs of central banks during the COVID-19 crisis, by country income group501.1Conceptual framework: Interconnected balance sheet risks531.2Conceptual framework: Vicious and virtuous cycles551.3Soc

39、ial safety nets and income losses during the COVID-19 crisis, by country income group57 B1.1.1Use of monetary policy to reduce interest rates in India59 B1.1.2Support for new lending through partial credit guarantees in India, by firm size601.4Fiscal constraints to the COVID-19 response, by country

40、income group611.5Government arrears in Sub-Saharan Africa611.6Financial sector policies during the COVID-19 crisis, by country income group64 B1.2.1Nonperforming loans in India, 200516651.7Government debt and banking sector fragility during the COVID-19 crisis, by country income group671.8Change in

41、average government revenue, by country income group, 201120671.9Average primary government balances, by country income group, 20102070 B1.3.1Impacts of the “taper tantrum” on the Indonesian economy, 200515812.1Changes in nonperforming loan ratios, by country income group, 202021862.2Capacity of bank

42、ing systems to absorb increases in nonperforming loans, by World Bank region and country income group922.3Comparison of accumulation of nonperforming loans at public banks and private banks after adverse shockviii | CONTENTS952.4Nonperforming loan reduction flowchart992.5Ratio of nonperforming loans

43、 to total loans, Serbia, 2010201072.6Financial safety net and bank resolution powers, by country income group, 201620120 S2.1.1Credit risk ratio and restructured portfolio ratio, by size of microfinance institution and World Bank region, 2019 and 2020125 B3.1.1Insolvency process timeline131 B3.2.1 I

44、nsolvency backlog in India, 2018201343.1Share of enterprises in arrears or expecting to fall into arrears within six months, selected countries, MaySeptember 20201373.2Enterprise ability to survive a drop in sales, selected countries1383.3Share of enterprises in arrears or expecting to be in arrears

45、 within six months, JuneSeptember 20201383.4Share of enterprises with lower monthly sales than in the previous year, JuneSeptember 20201383.5Nonperforming loans, selected Asian countries, 199820051594.1Quarterly trends in credit conditions, by country income group, 2018211614.2Impacts of selected ri

46、sk mitigation strategies on visibility, recourse, and risk164 B4.1.1Growth in loan disbursements by Konfo, 201921165 B4.2.1Share of borrowers who appear more creditworthy when using a machine learning model than when using traditional statistical methods170 B4.3.1Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on a

47、doption of technology by businesses, by country income group173 B4.4.1Growth of merchant payments and mobile money overdrafts in Kenya, 2019211754.3 Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumers loan approval rates, by product type, Poland, 201921177 B4.5.1Volume of off-grid lighting products sold as

48、 cash products and via PAYGo, 2018212055.1General government gross debt, by country income group, 2010202065.2 Level of risk of external debt distress, low-income countries, 201121209 B5.1.1Poverty-reducing expenditures in Rwanda versus other HIPC countries2105.3 The lost decade of development in co

49、untries defaulting on sovereign debt2125.4 External debt in low- and middle-income countries, by creditor type, 198020192125.5 Composition of creditors in all countries and in low- and lower-middle-income countries, 1989 and 2019CONTENTS | ix2205.6Sovereign debt restructuring and time spent in defau

50、lt, selected countries, 19752000222 B5.3.1Participation of countries in DSSI, by level of risk of debt distress225 B5.4.1Poverty and financial repression, Argentina, 19952002226 B5.4.2 Financial measures affecting savers during Argentinas economic crisis, 200102231 B5.5.1 Mozambiques external debt s